Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 50: Oscillation [2] - SSE 50: Oscillation [2] - CSI 300: Upward [2] - CSI 500: Upward [2] - CSI 1000: Upward [2] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [5] - Pulp: Weak consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Soybean oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Weak oscillation [5] - Rapeseed meal: Weak oscillation [5] - Soybean No. 2: Weak oscillation [5] - Soybean No. 1: Weak oscillation [5] - Live pigs: Strong oscillation [6] - Rubber: Oscillation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Oscillation [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The fundamentals of the black industry chain are facing different situations, with iron ore supported by short-term sentiment and coal and coke weakening; the steel market is under pressure from supply and demand [2] - The financial market shows a rebound trend, with the stock index expected to rise and the bond market relatively stable; gold and silver prices are affected by factors such as interest rates and geopolitics [4] - The forestry and pulp and paper industries are affected by supply and demand and cost factors, with logs oscillating and pulp and paper products showing different trends [5] - The agricultural products market is complex, with the prices of grains and oilseeds affected by factors such as production, trade, and demand, and the live pig market showing a strong oscillation [5][6] - The soft commodities and polyester industries are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and inventory, with rubber oscillating and polyester products showing different trends [8] Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron ore: After the resumption of steel mills, the molten iron output rebounded significantly to 2.4 million tons. The global iron ore shipment decreased last week, and the short-term fundamentals have limited contradictions. Pay attention to whether the 2601 contract can stand firm at the previous high [2] - Coking coal and coke: The second round of price cuts for coke has started, and the fundamentals are weakening. The supply of coking coal is increasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. The short-term sentiment in the black sector has cooled down [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: There is a lack of macro drivers, the supply will remain at a relatively high level, and the inventory pressure will continue to increase. The overall demand is difficult to show an inverse-seasonal performance, and the 2601 contract is oscillating weakly [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: The market rebounded, and it is recommended to control risk preferences and hold long positions in the stock index [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond decreased, and the market interest rate fluctuated. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4] - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the short-term is affected by factors such as interest rates and geopolitics. The prices of gold and silver are expected to remain at a high level and oscillate [4] Forestry and Pulp and Paper - Logs: The daily average shipment volume decreased slightly, showing a situation of off-season in the peak season. The supply pressure is not large, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [5] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the demand is weak, and it is expected to consolidate weakly [5] - Offset paper: The production is relatively stable, but the demand is not good, and it is recommended to take a bearish view [5] Agricultural Products - Grains and oilseeds: The supply pressure of soybeans and soybean meal is significant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply of rapeseed oil is tight, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [5] - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs increased slightly, and the demand from slaughtering enterprises improved. It is expected to oscillate strongly, but the price of standard pigs may be under pressure [6] Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: The supply pressure has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has continued to decline. It is expected to oscillate widely [8] - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX and PTA follow the cost fluctuations, MEG may accumulate inventory slightly, and the supply and demand of PR and PF are in a game state. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - high - level shock; Coal and coke - shock; Rolled steel and screw steel - weak; Glass - shock; Soda ash - shock [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Composite 50 - shock; CSI 300 - upward; CSI 500 - upward; CSI 1000 - upward; 2 - year treasury bond - shock; 5 - year treasury bond - shock; 10 - year treasury bond - rebound; Gold - high - level shock; Silver - high - level shock [2][3][4] - **Light Industry**: Logs - range shock; Pulp - weak consolidation; Offset paper - bearish; Edible oils - wide - range shock; Oilseeds and meals - shock; Live pigs - shock and slightly stronger; Rubber - shock; PX - wait - and - see; PTA - shock; MEG - wait - and - see; PR - wait - and - see; PF - shock and consolidation [6][7][10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple industries including black, financial, light industries, etc. It provides investment ratings and detailed analyses of the supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors for each product in these industries, guiding investors to make decisions based on the current market situation and future trends [2][4][6] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The Guinean government's requirements boost market sentiment. The daily average pig iron output has recovered to 240,000 tons. Global iron ore shipments have decreased significantly, mainly due to the sharp decline in Brazilian shipments. There is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure, and the short - term fundamentals have limited contradictions. Attention should be paid to whether the 2601 contract can stand firm at the previous high [2] - **Coal and coke**: The purchase price of coke by mainstream steel mills has been lowered. The fundamentals are weakening, with continuous inventory accumulation of steel and coal mines and weakening downstream orders. Supply is increasing, while demand has recovered slightly. The short - term sentiment in the black sector has cooled, and coal and coke show a low - level shock trend [2] - **Rolled steel and screw steel**: The fundamentals are weak. The steel industry's stable - growth policy does not restrict steel production, so supply remains high. The demand for building materials has declined, and the total demand is hard to reverse seasonally, showing a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. Profits have declined, and the 2601 contract of screw steel is running weakly below the 60 - day line [2] - **Glass**: The news of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may cause short - term fluctuations in the market. The cost of production lines will increase. The spot in Hubei has improved slightly, and the key for the 01 contract lies in the path of cold repair. In the long term, glass demand is difficult to recover significantly [2] - **Soda ash**: The short - term market has stood above the 60 - day line support, and future attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw gains in the CSI 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. There was capital inflow in communication equipment and electronic components sectors and outflow in catering, tourism, and pharmaceutical sectors. The element market reform pilot will be carried out, and US CPI data has been released, which affects market sentiment. It is recommended to control risk preference and hold long positions in stock indices [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. Market interest rates are fluctuating, and the trend of treasury bonds is weakening. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4] - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing. Its currency, financial, and commodity attributes all support the price, and the market still has a certain demand for hedging. Although the logic of the current gold price increase has not completely reversed, the Fed's interest rate policy and hedging sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors. Gold and silver are expected to maintain a high - level shock [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has decreased slightly, showing a peak - season but not prosperous situation. The arrival volume is expected to increase this week, and the supply pressure is not large. The inventory has been decreasing, and the cost support has weakened. The delivery willingness of the 09 contract has increased. Logs are expected to show a range shock [6] - **Pulp**: The spot price is stable. The cost support has increased, but the profitability of the papermaking industry is low, and paper mills have high inventory pressure. The demand improvement is yet to be verified. Pulp prices are expected to show a weak consolidation [6] - **Offset Paper**: The spot price is stable. Production is relatively stable, but September is the downstream seasonal off - season. The industry has over - capacity, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. It should be treated bearishly [6] - **Edible Oils**: The expected increase in the production of US soybeans and Malaysian palm oil has increased the supply pressure. The export tax of Indonesian palm oil has been adjusted, and the import of domestic rapeseed has shrunk. The demand for double - festival stocking is weak. Edible oils are expected to show a wide - range shock [6] - **Oilseeds and Meals**: The market expects a good harvest of US soybeans, and the export has not improved substantially. The domestic supply of soybeans is abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal has been accumulating. Oilseeds and meals are expected to show a shock trend [6][7] - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs has increased slightly, and the slaughter rate has also increased. With the recovery of the slaughter rhythm, the supply of large pigs has increased, and the price of standard pigs may be under pressure. The price difference between fat and standard pigs is expected to widen slightly [7] - **Rubber**: The supply in the rubber - producing areas is affected by weather conditions, and the raw material price is high. The demand of tire enterprises has declined slightly, and the inventory at Qingdao Port has decreased. Rubber is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term [10] - **PX**: There are concerns about weak US demand and global supply surplus. The supply and demand of PX have both increased, but the short - term supply - demand has weakened, and the price follows the oil price [10] - **PTA**: The cost support is average, the supply has increased, and the demand of downstream polyester factories has rebounded. The supply - demand has improved, and the price follows the cost in the short term [10] - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, and the future arrival volume is not high. The supply pressure has increased, and the mid - term supply - demand is expected to be in a wide - balance state. The low inventory supports the price [10] - **PR**: Affected by the decline in international oil prices, the cost support has weakened, and the demand has also declined. PR is expected to run weakly with the raw materials [10] - **PF**: The cost support is weak, but the orders in the downstream yarn market have improved slightly, and the inventory of short - fiber factories is low. PF is expected to show a shock and consolidation trend [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously falling, the Middle - East situation is tense again, and spot freight rates are persistently low. The market is in the bottom - building process. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - Considering geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Shipping Indexes**: On September 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1566.46 points, down 11.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 980.48 points, down 3.3%. On September 5, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1023.16 points, down 6.83%; the NCFI for the European route was 855.93 points, down 7.92%; for the US - West route, it was 1338.34 points, down 4.19%. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index on September 5 was 1444.44 points, down 0.62 points; the SCFI for the European route was 1315 USD/TEU, down 11.21%; for the US - West route, it was 2189 USD/FEU, up 13.83%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1149.14 points, down 0.6%; for the European route, it was 1638.77 points, down 2.8%; for the US - West route, it was 774.40 points, unchanged [3]. - **Economic Data**: The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7, and the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1. The eurozone's August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7. In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points. The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, and the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 [3][4]. - **Contract Data**: On September 9, the main contract 2510 closed at 1268.7, down 0.97%, with a trading volume of 22,400 lots and an open interest of 47,200 lots, a decrease of 290 lots from the previous day [5]. Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and consider increasing positions around 1200; add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In the context of international situation instability, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Other Information - **Tariff and Trade**: Sino - US tariffs continue to be postponed, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [5]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: On September 9, the Israeli military called on residents of Gaza City to evacuate as it planned a large - scale ground offensive. Hamas said the US cease - fire proposal was not a real agreement [5][6].

2025年9月10日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) SCFIS持续下跌,中东局势再度紧张,现货运价持续低迷,盘面处于筑底过程,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损, SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 9月8日 | 9月5日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1566.46点, 较上期下跌11.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1023.16点,较上期下跌6.83% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）980.48点，较上期下跌3.3% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 855.93点, 较上期下跌7.92% | | 9月5日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1338.34点, 较上期下跌4.19% | | | 9月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1444.44 点，较上期下跌0.62点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数) 1149.14点，较上期下跌0.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1315USD/TEU,较上期下跌11.21% | | | ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 9 月 10 日星期三 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-9-10） | | | | 铁矿：几内亚政府要求当地矿山开发商在下游附属配套建设对应的深加工 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 厂和冶炼厂有关，情绪受到提振。铁矿基本面矛盾不突出，上周京津冀区 | | | | | 域内钢厂"限产"结束，日均铁水产量高位大幅回落，本周有望逐步恢复。 | | | 铁矿石 | 高位震荡 | 产业层面，本期全球铁矿发运大幅回落，全球铁矿石发运总量 2756.2 万 | | | | | 吨，环比减少 800.6 万吨。近两周巴西发运量的大幅下滑是全球总量回落 | | | | | 的主因，但目前疏港尚可的情况下亦无明显累库压力。终端需求偏弱，钢 | | | | | 厂盈利比例高位回落，现阶段钢厂主动减产动力依然不足，不排除后续旺 | | | | | 季不旺，从而导致负反馈可能。短期铁矿石基本面矛盾有限，铁矿 2601 | | | | | 合约关注前高一线能否站稳。 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡偏弱 | 煤焦： ...

2025年9月8日 集运日报 墨西哥迫于压力计划增加对华关税,南美航线或受影响,盘面或受消息影响,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损. | | | | 9月1日 | 9月5日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1773.60点，较上期下跌10.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1023.16点，较上期下跌6.83% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1013.90 点，较上期下跌2.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）855.93点，较上期下跌7.92% | | 9月5日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1338.34点，较上期下跌4.19% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1444.44 点，较上期下跌0.62点 | 9月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1315USD/TEU, 较上期下跌11.21% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1149.14点，较上期下跌0.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2189USD/FEU, 较上期上 ...

2025年9月8日 集运日报 墨西哥迫于压力计划增加对华关税,南美航线或受影响,盘面或受消息影响,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损. | | | | 9月1日 | 9月5日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1773.60点，较上期下跌10.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1023.16点，较上期下跌6.83% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1013.90 点，较上期下跌2.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）855.93点，较上期下跌7.92% | | 9月5日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1338.34点，较上期下跌4.19% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1444.44 点，较上期下跌0.62点 | 9月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1315USD/TEU, 较上期下跌11.21% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1149.14点，较上期下跌0.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2189USD/FEU, 较上期上 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 9 月 8 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-9-8） | | | | | 铁矿：2025-2026 年钢铁行业稳增长政策发布，文件中并未提到对于钢材 产量端的限制，铁矿价格表现相对较强。铁矿基本面矛盾不突出，9 月降 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 息概率大增，大宗商品或受到支撑。上周京津冀区域内钢厂"限产"结束， | | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 日均铁水产量高位大幅回落，本周有望逐步恢复。产业层面，铁矿全球发 | | | | | | 运环比小幅下滑，但目前疏港尚可的情况下亦无明显累库压力。终端需求 | | | | | | 偏弱，钢厂盈利比例高位回落，现阶段钢厂主动减产动力依然不足，不排 | | | | | | 除后续旺季不旺，从而导致负反馈可能。短期铁矿石基本面矛盾有限，预 | | | | | | 计跟随成材高位震荡运行。 | | | | | | 煤焦：基本面现实不断转弱，螺纹库存连续超季节性累库，焦煤矿山库存 | | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, near - month contracts are declining, and the market is in the bottom - building process with large recent fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Content Freight Rate Index - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [3]. - On August 29, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [3]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [3]. - On August 29, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5, the service PMI was 50.7, and the composite PMI was 51.1, with the composite PMI rising for three consecutive months and reaching the highest since May 2024 [3]. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The preliminary values of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI and Markit manufacturing PMI in August were both 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the service PMI was 55.4 [4]. Market Strategy - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to take a light - position trial long at around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase positions at around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Given the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or make light - position attempts [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Information - On September 4, the main contract 2510 closed at 1300.7, down 1.77%, with a trading volume of 25,800 lots and an open interest of 50,000 lots, a decrease of 1983 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5]. Geopolitical Events - On September 4, the Houthi armed forces launched a military operation against Israel, targeting Ben - Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv with a "Zulfiqar" ballistic missile, which hit the target [5]. - On September 3, the Israeli Defense Forces and the Shin Bet announced that they had killed a leader of the "Jihad Brigades" in the Gaza Strip [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates are continuously declining, near - month contracts are falling, and the market is in the bottom - building process with large recent fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period. On August 29, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [3]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [3]. - On September 4, the main contract 2510 closed at 1300.7, down 1.77%, with a trading volume of 25,800 lots and an open interest of 50,000 lots, a decrease of 1983 lots from the previous day [5]. Economic Indicators - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5 (forecast 49.5, previous value 49.8), the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.7 (forecast 50.8, previous value 51), and the preliminary value of the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than 50.9 in July, the highest since May 2024 and higher than the expected value of 50.7. The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in August was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3 (forecast 49.5, previous value 49.8), the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.4 (forecast 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the preliminary value of the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [4]. Trade and Geopolitical Situation - Sino - US tariffs are still extended, and there is no substantial progress in the negotiation. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [5]. - On September 4, the Houthi armed forces launched a military operation against Israel, targeting Ben - Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv with a "Zulfiqar" ballistic missile, which hit the target. On September 3, the Israeli Defense Forces and the Shin Bet announced that they had killed a leader of the "Jihadist Brigade" in the Gaza Strip [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back before judging the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].