【国泰海通食饮】周报第5期：茅台动销批价上行，零食迎接备货行情 本周1月29日白酒板块单日大幅上涨，主要受地产政策、茅台批价、流动性等多重因素催化。 据我们观察，茅台价盘理顺后渠道融合度显著提升，线上i茅台掀起抢购潮，线下经销商出货甚至略快于往年，近 期礼赠及饮用需求增加，普飞批价本周一度涨超1700元。 展望后续：1）短期维度，白酒开门红推进中，除强势品牌外多数渠道打款积极性一般，预计动销高峰2月开启， 届时若普飞等核心大单品需求持续释放，则有望支撑价盘，若批价确认企稳，我们认为其对股价的压制将会减 轻；2）中期维度，2026年景气修复和库存去化尚需时间，预计酒企通过以价换量或控量的方式维持渠道韧性，典 型的以价换量如高端龙头茅台、五粮液，控量如习酒、郎酒等，5-6月起行业迎来低基数，动销或将逐步企稳，具 备较强放量潜力的品牌有望更快修复，行业预计呈现主动或被动去库之势，为后续发展奠定基础。 大众品：元旦良好人流量利好出行相关食饮需求。 成长为主线、重视供需出清下的拐点机会。 1）首选具有价格弹性标的：贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖以及有望陆续出清标的：迎驾贡酒、古井贡酒、山西汾 酒、今世缘、珍酒李渡、舍得酒业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquor stock market, particularly the Chinese liquor company Zhenjiu Lidu (06979), has seen significant gains, with a notable increase of over 5% in its stock price, driven by positive market sentiment and expectations for recovery in the industry [1] Industry Summary - On January 29, the liquor sector experienced a historic surge, with 20 stocks hitting the daily limit and the index rising by 9.79%. Kweichow Moutai saw an increase of 8.61%, attributed to better-than-expected sales prices and recognition of reforms, alongside supportive real estate policies and positive Producer Price Index (PPI) expectations [1] - On January 30, Kweichow Moutai's sales prices continued to rise, with prices for its Flying Fairy, vintage, and zodiac wines increasing, indicating strong channel sales activity [1] - The industry is expected to reach a bottom by 2026, with leading companies likely to increase their market share. There is optimism for significant investment opportunities in the liquor sector before and after the Spring Festival, marking a potential ten-year low [1] Company Summary - Tianfeng Securities reports that the liquor sector has undergone approximately five years of adjustment, with current valuations and institutional positions at historical lows. The market sentiment towards the liquor sector is currently pessimistic, and a recovery in the overall industry fundamentals will require a revival in external macro demand [1] - Despite the current market conditions, stock prices may lead the fundamentals in finding a bottom, suggesting potential for early recovery in stock performance [1]

格隆汇2月2日｜白酒股盘初走高，其中，水井坊涨超5%，山西汾酒、贵州茅台、五粮液涨超3%，古井 贡酒、舍得酒业跟涨。消息上，酒价内参2月2日价格发布，十大单品涨跌分化整体价格升至阶段高位。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market shows a divergence in retail prices for the top ten products, with an overall upward trend in prices, reaching the highest level since January 8, 2023, at a total price of 9020 yuan for a bundled sale of these products, an increase of 9 yuan from the previous day [1]. Price Movements - Among the top ten products, seven saw price increases while three experienced declines. Notable price increases include: - Guojiao 1573, Qinghua Fen 20, and Gujing Gong 20, each rising by 10 yuan per bottle due to channel restocking and a shift in transaction focus [1]. - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation increased by 8 yuan per bottle, indicating a recovery in the price difference between wholesale and retail [1]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ rose by 6 yuan per bottle, supported by regional inventory reduction [1]. - Premium Moutai increased by 2 yuan per bottle, driven by high-end gifting demand, accumulating a total increase of over 60 yuan in four consecutive days [1]. - Crystal Jian Nan Chun saw a slight increase of 1 yuan per bottle [1]. Price Declines - The products that experienced price declines include: - Xijiu Junpin, which fell by 17 yuan per bottle, reaching a 30-day low at an average price of 625 yuan [1]. - Feitian Moutai decreased by 15 yuan per bottle [1]. - Qinghua Lang dropped by 6 yuan per bottle [1]. Current Prices of Major Products - Current retail prices for notable products are as follows: - Feitian Moutai: 1715 yuan per bottle, down by 15 yuan [3]. - Premium Moutai: 2417 yuan per bottle, up by 2 yuan [3]. - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation: 801 yuan per bottle, up by 8 yuan [4]. - Qinghua Fen 20: 384 yuan per bottle, up by 10 yuan [4]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: 585 yuan per bottle, up by 6 yuan [4]. - Gujing Gong 20: 520 yuan per bottle, up by 10 yuan [4]. - Xijiu Junpin: 625 yuan per bottle, down by 17 yuan [4]. - Qinghua Lang: 707 yuan per bottle, down by 6 yuan [4]. - Crystal Jian Nan Chun: 389 yuan per bottle, up by 1 yuan [4].

文丨酒类咨询专家 韩为喜 为了应对这种周期的切换，茅台做了一件最艰难的事：渠道变革。 最近，i茅台APP上罕见地大量投放1499元飞天茅台，引发了行业的剧烈讨论。有人说是为了冲业绩，有人说是为了打压黄牛。但在我看来，这些解读都 还在战术层面打转。 如果我们把视角拉高，将茅台的这一系列动作——从直销变革到服务商转型，再到如今的控价放量——放在中国经济大周期的背景下去看，你会发现一条 清晰而深刻的草蛇灰线。 这不仅是一次价格的博弈，更是一场"从金融品回归消费品"的历史性迁徙。 周期的共振：茅台是中国经济的投影 我们必须承认，过去二十年茅台的神话，是建立在两个巨大的宏观基石之上的：基建地产的繁荣与货币的宽松。 在那个资产价格普涨的年代，茅台不仅仅是一瓶酒，它成了抗通胀的硬通货，成了商务社交的顶级门票。它的"金融属性"，是被那个特定时代的宏观经济 赋予的。 然而，当中国经济进入高质量发展的转型期，当"房住不炒"成为长效机制，当去杠杆成为主旋律，依附于旧周期的茅台，必然要面临估值逻辑的重构。 当资产端的泡沫开始挤出，茅台的金融属性剥离就不是"想不想"的问题，而是"必须做"的顺势而为。 现在我们看到的批价下行，某种程度上 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates multiple companies in the consumer staples sector as "Outperform," including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Core Insights - The consumer staples industry in January 2026 shows a recovery in basic demand while hedonic consumption remains under pressure, indicating a divergence in performance across different segments [3][29]. - Among the eight key consumer industries tracked, four are experiencing positive growth (condiments, frozen food, soft drinks, and catering), while four are facing declines (high-end and above Baijiu, mass-market Baijiu, dairy products, and beer) [29]. Summary by Segment Baijiu (High-end and Above) - In January, the revenue for high-end Baijiu reached 47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14.0%. The price pressure is significant, with expectations of over a 10% price drop throughout the year due to high inventory levels [11]. Baijiu (Mass-market and Below) - The mass-market Baijiu segment generated 22.9 billion yuan in January, down 3.0% year-on-year. Despite the decline, the segment shows resilience due to rigid demand and adaptability to consumption scenarios [13]. Beer - The beer industry reported revenues of 17 billion yuan in January, a decrease of 7.1% year-on-year. The demand was affected by adverse weather and the delayed Spring Festival, leading to a cautious inventory approach by distributors [15]. Condiments - The condiment sector achieved revenues of 46.9 billion yuan in January, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%. The recovery in the catering channel and increased demand from small and medium-sized businesses are key drivers [17]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector's revenue was 43.5 billion yuan in January, down 3.3% year-on-year. The demand remains under pressure, but a potential recovery is anticipated in the coming months due to low base effects [19]. Frozen Food - The frozen food segment saw revenues of 14.99 billion yuan in January, with a year-on-year increase of 8%. The demand is supported by pre-Spring Festival stocking and favorable weather conditions [21]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink industry generated 96.2 billion yuan in January, with a modest growth of 1.1% year-on-year. Increased promotional activities indicate heightened market competition [24]. Catering - The catering sector reported revenues of 16.2 billion yuan in January, up 2.5% year-on-year. The demand is gradually improving, particularly in small and medium-sized restaurants [26].

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the China Securities Xinhua National Brand Engineering Index rising by 0.10% to 2029.77 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% and the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.62% [1][2] - Key stocks such as Lanke Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Luzhou Laojiao showed strong performance, with Lanke Technology leading with a 13.64% increase [2] - Since the beginning of 2026, Lanke Technology has surged by 54.37%, followed by Zhaoyi Innovation at 46.97%, indicating significant growth among certain stocks [2] Group 2 - Market performance was heavily influenced by investor sentiment, with significant volatility across different styles and sectors, particularly in defensive financial sectors [3] - The recent market fluctuations are attributed to the excessive gains in certain sectors, while fundamental and liquidity factors remain stable [3] - Looking ahead, the A-share market is expected to present mid-term investment opportunities, driven by trends in household savings and performance realization across multiple industries [3] Group 3 - Precious metals and resource sectors, which had previously seen significant gains, experienced a pullback, leading to a shift in funds towards more certain areas [4] - The logic behind the non-ferrous metals industry remains unchanged, with constrained supply and increasing demand from emerging sectors like new energy and AI expected to support price increases [4] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is anticipated to favor economic stimulation over inflation suppression, benefiting large commodities priced in dollars [4]

春节临近，一瓶好酒是否已在您的年货清单中？今年，不少消费者购买茅台酒的途径有了新变化——通过i茅台APP"线上购买、线下提货"，以透明价格便 捷入手茅台酒，既安心又省心。那么，线下提货现场究竟如何？1月30日，"茅台时空"探访了贵阳市观山湖区长岭南路的贵州茅台自营店，记录下春节前 真实的提货场景。 工作日的午间，茅台自营店内陆续有消费者前来提货，不少人趁着午休时间专程前来。在附近上班的张先生表示："开车过来很方便，整个提货过程也就 两三分钟，不耽误下午工作。" "茅台时空"在门店观察到，线下提货流程标准且高效：消费者打开i茅台APP出示订单二维码和身份证，店员扫码后从仓库取酒，经核验包装、签字确认， 一次提货便顺利完成，全程只需两分钟。 仅午间时段，约有40位消费者完成提货，其中近七成为整箱提取，多数人表示所购的茅台酒将用于春节家宴或赠礼所需。消费者吴先生分享说："飞天茅 台刚在i茅台上线那会儿，我主要是买两瓶尝尝，现在快过年了，干脆买整箱，家用、送人都方便。"这样的提货场景，正是i茅台在春节消费季的生动写 照。 在提货高峰时段，门店的服务细节尤为温暖：工作人员会主动帮助消费者取号，一旁设置有矿泉水加热柜，温 ...

随着全球资产配置需求增长，中国私募基金国际化布局加速，香港成"出海"首选地，香港证监会9号牌 照是关键"金钥匙"。据私募排排网统计，截至2025年12月31日，133家私募持有该牌照，百亿私募达39 家，上海是"重镇"。其中，2025年获得9号牌照的私募有优美利投资、平方和投资、鑫善投资、致诚卓 远、弘尚资产、上海合骥私募、万柏私募、永信国际投资、动量资本等17家，相比2024年多2家。 热点聚焦 133家私募持9号牌照"出海"掘金！ 百亿私募日斗投资分红"狠操作"：净值归一，分红惊掉下巴！ 近日，据华尔街见闻，百亿私募机构日斗投资旗下一只代表产品，在1月19日实施了超常规分红。该产 品成立于2024年7月，分红前累计净值达1.7719，此次分红后单位净值直接回到1.0000，投资者可在现金 分红与红利再投资间选择。这种把此前积累浮盈一次性分配、净值打回初始面值的做法，在私募行业并 不多见，尤其产品成立时间不长。日斗投资成立于2016年，2019年完成备案，近两年规模蹿升，当前管 理规模接近300亿元。其规模扩张备受热议，诸多中小型券商是主要推手，也有"大户"冲着创始人王文 而来。 但斌公布最新持仓，谷歌成第 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a weekly increase of 1.56%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by 0.44%, and the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 0.08% [1][17] - The liquor segment, particularly baijiu, showed a strong performance with a 3.86% increase, driven by positive sales dynamics for leading brands like Guizhou Moutai, which saw its batch price rise to 1700 yuan [2][11] - The overall performance of the consumer goods sector was weaker, with declines in most categories except for meat products, which increased by 0.52% [1][17] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector's performance from January 26 to January 30 showed a 1.56% increase, with specific categories like baijiu increasing by 3.86% and snacks decreasing by 6.07% [1][17] Weekly Perspective Update - The baijiu sector is gaining attention, with Guizhou Moutai's sales performing well. The sector's strong performance is attributed to favorable market conditions and improved sales dynamics [2][11] - The consumer goods sector, excluding meat products, showed a decline, with specific stocks like Li Ziyuan increasing by 16.0% while others like Hao Xiang Ni decreased significantly [2][12] Sector Investment Recommendations - For the baijiu sector, the report recommends focusing on leading brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, anticipating strong sales during the Spring Festival [3] - In the consumer goods sector, the report emphasizes the importance of the Spring Festival stocking season, recommending companies like East Peak, Wei Long, and New Dairy for potential growth [3][12]