2025 年 05 月 25 日 茅台定海神针稳，新消费延续高景气度 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 食品饮料(申万) 0.4 5.8 -7.0 沪深 300 2.5 -1.1 7.8 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《食品饮料行业周报：关注茅台 股东大会，小食品持续向好》2025- 05-19 2、《食品饮料行业周报：降息"靴 子落地"，利好市场情绪提振》 2025-05-11 3、《食品饮料行业周报：年报季顺 利收官，五一白酒需求符合预期》 2025-05-06 ▌ 一周新闻速递 行业新闻：1）贵州公示 6.6 亿元酒类投资项目；2） 1-4 月 贵州酒饮茶工业增加值增长 4.7%；3） 1-4 月葡萄酒进口额 增长超 26%； 公司新闻 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京5月25日电（记者沈寅飞）日前，2024年度"中联上市公司价值100"（以下简称"中联百 强"）榜单出炉。该榜单由中联企业管理集团有关专家组成的上市公司业绩评价课题组推出，至今已是 连续第24年发布。同期还首次发布了"中国人工智能产业分析报告""数据资产上市公司分析报告"及有关 民营上市公司的分析评价等。 据介绍，此次榜单凸显"先进制造与AI创新赋能新质生产力""民营企业高质量发展""培育壮大新型消 费"等亮点。从综合评价来看， 云铝股份以综合得分91.59获得第一，华利集团、北新建材、中远海控等 上市公司紧随其后。 2024年度中联百强中，制造业以67家上市公司持续保持领先，其中先进科技制造企业明显增多，集中在 新能源、半导体与AI硬件、电子制造、创新药与医疗器械等领域，形成一批高增长潜力股。如在新能 源领域，以比亚迪、赛力斯为代表的电动车企和以阳光电源、德业股份为代表的光伏与储能企业实现快 速增长，并达到中国品牌出海新高度。在创新药与医疗领域，百利天恒首款国产SL-B01D1 （EGFR/HER3双抗）进入临床III期，惠泰医疗等上市公司加快医疗设备国产替代进程。在电子制造、 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 食品饮料 关注渠道和品类红利，继续推荐劲仔食品 ——食饮行业周报（2025 年 5 月第 3 期） 投资要点 食饮观点：当前食饮板块关注"食品板块品类红利"、"零食企业会员商超 等新渠道驱动"、"保健品新热点"等三方面的新消费投资机会，传统消费 优选业绩见底有望向上标的。我们维持此前强调的"在内需避风港钓鱼"观 点，并强调该阶段应该重点布局行业龙头个股；白酒板块 2025 年或为新旧 周期转换年，关注基本面业绩较好或公司改革有望见成效的龙头标的；大众 品短期关注零食公司或在山姆等会员店上架新品的投资机会，推荐劲仔食 品、盐津铺子，关注有友食品，持续推荐品类红利、零售变革大年和成本周 期带来的食饮投资机会。 白酒板块：白酒板块当前仍处低位，且一季报或为全年低点，当前位置持续 推荐，优选品牌势能较强、库存更早出清、目标增速合理的酒企。当前存在 关税等外部不确定性，以白酒为代表的内需配置价值彰显，政策及地产企稳 催化下或迎白酒结构牛市，推荐攻守兼备两条主线。重视"势能延续"、"低 基数修复"两条主线：①势能延续的确定性：高端酒推荐贵州茅台/五粮液， 次高端及区域酒推荐古井贡酒/山西汾 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Views - The food and beverage sector is focusing on three new consumer investment opportunities: "category dividends in the food sector," "new channel drivers such as snack companies in membership supermarkets," and "new hotspots in health products." Traditional consumption is expected to see performance bottoming out and potentially rising [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies in the industry during this phase, particularly in the liquor sector, which may experience a transition year in 2025. Attention should be given to companies with good fundamentals or those undergoing effective reforms [1][2] - The report continues to recommend leading stocks in the food and beverage sector, highlighting companies such as Jin Zai Food, Yili, and Salted Pudding, among others, as key investment opportunities [2][24] Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector is currently focusing on "category dividends," "new channel drivers," and "health product hotspots" as investment opportunities. The report maintains a positive outlook on leading companies in the sector [1][2][24] - Recommended stocks include Jin Zai Food, Yili, Salted Pudding, Dongpeng Beverage, Miaokelando, Wancheng Group, Guming, Mixue Group, Anjixin Food, Qingdao Beer (A+H), Lihai Food, Three Squirrels, Babi Food, and Xianle Health, with a focus on leading companies [2][24] Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently at a low point, with the first quarter potentially being the lowest point for the year. The report recommends focusing on brands with strong momentum and reasonable growth targets [2][16] - The report highlights two main lines of investment: "momentum continuation" and "low base recovery." High-end liquor recommendations include Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while mid-range and regional liquor recommendations include Guqingongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu [2][17] - The report notes that the liquor sector may enter a structural bull market driven by policy and real estate stabilization [16][17] Market Performance - From May 19 to May 23, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.18%, while other liquor categories increased by 8.69% and frozen foods by 3.89%. The liquor sector saw a decline of 2.78% [3][29] - Specific liquor companies showed varied performance, with Jinzhongzi Jiu and Huangtai Jiu seeing slight increases, while Shanxi Fenjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu experienced significant declines [4][29] Company Updates - Jin Zai Food is highlighted as a key recommendation due to its clear growth path with major products and potential in new channels. The company is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2025 [19][21] - Guizhou Moutai is focusing on five key areas for development in 2025, including strengthening its core business and building an ESG ecosystem [7][8] - Other companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Yanghe are also focusing on expanding their market presence and enhancing brand value [10][11]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 25 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点：白酒行业逐步施压，餐供龙头边际修复 投资建议：1、白酒：2025 年目标理性，行业逐步施压，权重龙头配置价 值凸显，建议关注" 优势龙头、红利延续、强势复苏"三条主线：1）优势 龙头，头部酒企份额持续提升：贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒； 2）红利延续，高确定性区域酒：迎驾贡酒（洞藏大单品红利）、今世缘（江 苏格局红利）等；3）受益复苏与风险偏好提升，弹性标的：泸州老窖、 水井坊、舍得酒业、老白干酒、港股珍酒李渡、酒鬼酒等。2、大众品： 餐供空间广阔龙头修复，松鼠生态大会拓展边界，建议寻找高成长与强复 苏两条主线：1）高景气或高成长逻辑：盐津铺子、好想你、东鹏饮料、 燕京啤酒、珠江啤酒、三只松鼠、百润股份、有友食品等，港股农夫山泉、 华润饮料、卫龙美味等。2）政策受益或复苏改善：青岛啤酒、海天味业、 新乳业、伊利股份、重庆啤酒、安琪酵母、仙乐健康、安井食品、立高食 品等，港股 H&H 国际控股等。 白酒：龙头理性，行业释压。本周多家酒企召开股东大会和业绩说明会。 2025 年稳字当头、降速发展和长期 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 25 年 月 日 食品饮料 啤酒饮料：1-4 月中国啤酒产量同比下降 0.6%，饮料竞争持续升级。1） 啤酒板块：2025 年 1-4 月中国规模以上企业啤酒累计产量 1144.0 万千 升，同比-0.6%；其中 4 月啤酒产量 289.6 万千升，同比+4.8%。青岛啤 酒于 5 月 20 日召开董事会，选举姜宗祥先生为公司第十一届董事会董事 长。我们认为当前板块估值及市场预期均处于低位，25Q2-25Q3 在旺季极 低基数下量、价均存超预期机遇，往后政策、需求、公司层面均具备超预 期的可能性，建议重点关注啤酒板块配置窗口期。2）饮料板块：国内新 锐饮料品牌 果子熟了"正式推出电解制水，瓶型包装为方瓶设计，有 600ml 和 910ml 两个规格，主打 轻负担、强补水"，产品采用 0 糖 0 卡 0 脂配方，适配健身人群、上班族等多场景需求。我们预计 2025 年饮料 行业延续激烈竞争态势，但在全年假期延长、出行场景修复的背景下，饮 料板块仍有望保持高景气，建议优选渠道网点领先且具备大单品增长潜力 的企业。 餐供空间广阔龙头修复，松鼠生态 ...

在A股，外资被叫做"聪明资金" 外资在A股更倾向于选择大型国有企业或者行业龙头企业，因为这些企业通常具备稳定的盈利状况和良好的抗风险能力。 在行业选择上，外资对消费、医药和科技等行业有更强的偏好。 从投资期限的维度来审视，外资追求长期投资，注重资产的长期增值潜力。它们会耐心陪伴企业成长，不被短期市场波动所左右。 从近几年外资进出场关键点位来看，外资总是在行业见顶时明显卖出，行业见底时明显买入 下面这25家中国核心资产，经历大幅调整后，一季度获得外资大量进场，值得大家重视： 第25家，贵州茅台，从高位回撤35%，北上资金一季度加仓228万股，公司是白酒第一品牌，茅台酒是世界三大名酒之一。公司在2024年度BrandZ最具价值 全球品牌100强榜单中位列中国品牌第2名、总榜第18名，并连续七年蝉联全球酒类品牌价值榜首 第24家，青岛啤酒，从高位回撤40%，北上资金一季度加仓292万股，公司是国内历史最悠久的啤酒生产企业，首批十大驰名商标之一。青岛啤酒的国际市 场定位为高品质、高价格和高可见度，产品已行销全球超120个国家和地区，品牌入围BrandZ中国全球化品牌50强，成为食品饮料行业唯一入围品牌 第23家，广发 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 36.011 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 16.523 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.72%, and a net profit of 6.648 billion yuan, which is a 6.15% increase year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor categories was 26.532 billion yuan and 9.342 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14.35% and 9.40% [1] - Revenue from the domestic market reached 13.500 billion yuan, while the revenue from the external market was 22.374 billion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 11.72% and 13.81% respectively [1] - The number of distributors increased significantly, with 835 in the domestic market and 3,718 in the external market, net additions of 15 and 598 respectively compared to the end of 2023 [1] Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 76.20%, an increase of 0.90 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix improvements [2] - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and finance were 10.35%, 4.02%, 0.41%, and -0.03% respectively, with slight increases year-on-year [2] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 34.00%, up 1.31 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [2] Growth Potential and Market Strategy - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience with double-digit growth in revenue and net profit in 2024, and positive growth in Q1 2025, reflecting strong brand equity and growth momentum [3] - The product strategy focuses on enhancing the "Qinghua" series, strengthening mid-tier products, and maintaining the market position of "Guangping" liquor [3] - The company is expanding its market presence, particularly in southern regions, by targeting county-level markets and focusing on core distributors to increase terminal numbers [3] Investment Outlook - Based on the operational performance in 2024 and Q1 2025, profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 13.63 billion yuan, 15.11 billion yuan, and 16.67 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.4%, 10.8%, and 10.4% [3] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 17, 16, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3]

Industry Dynamics - In the first four months of 2025, the production of liquor in China decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, totaling 1.308 million kiloliters, with April's production at 281,000 kiloliters, down 13.8% year-on-year [3] - The national liquor price index fell by 0.03% in mid-May, with premium liquor prices dropping by 0.06%, indicating market adjustment pressures due to weak high-end consumption and intensified competition [3] - Retail sales of tobacco and liquor in China increased by 5.8% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, reaching 230.5 billion yuan [4] - Guizhou province announced three liquor investment projects totaling 660 million yuan and a 5 billion yuan project for the production of sauce-flavored liquor [4] Company Dynamics - Guizhou Moutai launched the 2025 Moutai Friends Carnival, attracting nearly 500 participants to experience Moutai's culture and production processes [6] - The first 2025 China Yibin Wuliangye Wedding Festival was held, promoting cultural integration with innovative experiences [6] - Three liquor companies, Yanghe, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Guojingong, held annual performance briefings, focusing on market strategies and product launches [7] - Moutai's shareholders approved a profit distribution plan for 2024, with a cash dividend of 276.24 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 34.671 billion yuan [7] - Shede Liquor is accelerating its production expansion project, which includes 23 sub-projects aimed at enhancing production capacity by 2027 [7] - Anhui Yingjia Gongjiu set a revenue target of 7.6 billion yuan for 2025, expecting a 3.49% year-on-year growth [8]

证券之星食品饮料行业周报：2025年5月19日-2025年5月23日，沪深300指数下跌0.18%，申万食品饮料指数下跌 0.92%。前五大上涨个股分别为：会稽山（601579）、ST岩石、古越龙山（600059）、ST加加（002650）、天味食 品（603317）。 机构观点 开源证券本周观点(含个股)： 推荐组合：山西汾酒（600809）、贵州茅台（600519）、西麦食品（002956）(1)山西汾酒：汾酒短期面临需求压 力，但中期成长确定性较高。汾牌产品结构升级同时杏花村、竹叶青同时发力，全国化进程加快。(2)贵州茅台：公 司将深化改革进程，以更加务实的姿态，强调未来可持续发展。公司分红率提升，此轮周期后茅台可看得更为长 远。(3)西麦食品：燕麦主业稳健增长，线下基本盘稳固，新渠道开拓快速推进。原材料成本迎来改善，预计盈利能 力有望提升。 浙商证券本周建议(含个股)： 【港股食饮】建议关注：青啤H、华润啤酒、百威、蒙牛乳业、卫龙美味、悠然牧业、康师傅、统一等。 【白酒板块】建议关注α相对强&享受一定价位β红利的白酒龙头酒企：①强α主线：山西汾酒/贵州茅台/今世缘 （603369）等；②顺周期β主线： ...