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研报掘金丨东吴证券:首予恒铭达“买入”评级,产品+客户双轮驱动构筑可持续增长格局
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-18 07:17
东吴证券研报指出,恒铭达依托精密模切技术、精密金属加工等核心工艺平台,聚焦智能终端、数通与 算力基建、新能源三大战略领域。产品现已进入国内外知名品牌客户的供应链体系,持续助推智能终端 设备、通信及新能源产业的技术升级。公司在智能终端、数通与算力基建、新能源三大战略领域协同共 振,既分散单一赛道的周期风险,又能一站式满足不同客户的多维需求,在稳固既有份额的同时,开辟 出第二、第三增长曲线,为长期发展注入持续动能。同时,通过与知名品牌客户的紧密合作,公司持续 抬高技术、品质天花板,进一步夯实精密制造的护城河。此外,公司深度绑定头部客户,产品+客户双 轮驱动构筑可持续增长格局。公司消费电子板块受益AI浪潮,与头部客户深度合作,有望受益行业景 气度复苏及产品单机价值量提升。首次覆盖,给予"买入"评级。 ...
东吴证券:煤炭供需弱均衡导致煤价震荡运行 高股息投资逻辑持续
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-18 02:41
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that coal prices are expected to bottom out in Q2 2025, leading to improved performance for coal companies starting from Q3 2025, with stable coal prices benefiting leading companies [1] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Guanghui Energy (600256) due to its production growth from the "Xinjiang coal transportation" logic and performance elasticity from rising thermal coal prices [1] - Other companies recommended for attention include Haohua Energy (601101), Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) [1] Group 2 - Since mid-2023, the coal supply and demand have entered a weak equilibrium state due to slowing economic growth, with normal coal prices fluctuating between 670-870 RMB/ton, and a reasonable expectation around 770 RMB/ton [1] - Xinjiang coal has become a significant elastic supply region, with large-scale open-pit coal mines providing important supply flexibility [1] - When coal prices fall below 700 RMB/ton, coal mines face losses and may exit production, while prices above 800 RMB/ton lead to significant production releases due to improved profitability [1] Group 3 - The report indicates that Indonesian coal production has significant elasticity, as it consists of open-pit mines, and low-calorific coal is prioritized for elimination during market downturns, making it an important supplementary source for China's coal supply [2] - It is projected that China's coal imports will decrease by 5-6 million tons in 2025, with a similar decline expected in Indonesia's total export volume [2] - The most significant impact on coal prices from 2024 to 2025 will come from temporary railway freight discounts, particularly in Xinjiang, where a 20-30% discount will reduce transportation costs by 100-150 RMB/ton, ultimately affecting coastal coal price fluctuations [2]
头部券商把脉2026 A股有望震荡上行,科技成长仍是投资主线
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-11-17 23:16
Core Viewpoint - Major securities firms in China have released their investment strategy reports for A-shares in 2026, with a consensus on a "slow bull market" as the expected trend [1][3] Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is anticipated to continue in a slow bull pattern, with a shift in driving forces from "valuation recovery" to "profit-driven" or "fundamental verification" [4][5] - The A-share market is expected to experience low volatility, with a focus on global exposure as a key variable for 2026 [3][4] - Analysts predict a profit growth of approximately 4.7% for the entire A-share market in 2026, with many industries nearing performance improvement [4][5] Group 2: Investment Themes - Three major investment themes have been identified: technology growth, Chinese enterprises going global, and cyclical resource products [10][12] - The technology growth sector remains a favored direction, with a shift in focus from concepts to performance, particularly in application breakthroughs [11][12] - Chinese enterprises' global expansion is viewed as a significant opportunity for profit growth and market capitalization [13] Group 3: Style Rotation - A potential style shift from "growth" to "value" is anticipated around June 2026, influenced by industry trends and liquidity conditions [8][9] - The market is expected to trend towards a more balanced style, with cyclical industries approaching supply-demand equilibrium [9][10] - Analysts suggest maintaining a focus on technology while also considering previously underperforming sectors such as real estate and consumer goods [10][12]
头部券商把脉2026:A股有望震荡上行 科技成长仍是投资主线
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-11-17 14:43
Core Viewpoint - The consensus among major securities firms is that the A-share market is expected to enter a "slow bull market" in 2026, with a shift in investment opportunities from technology dominance in 2025 to multiple main lines in 2026 [1][3][4] Market Outlook - Following the policy measures introduced on September 24, 2024, the A-share market has entered a new bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high in 2025 [2] - Securities firms predict that the market will continue to evolve within a slow bull framework, with a key feature being the shift in driving forces [3][4] Driving Forces - The driving force is expected to shift from "valuation repair" to "profit-driven" or "fundamental verification" in 2026 [4] - Estimates suggest that the overall profit growth for A-shares in 2026 could be around 4.7%, with many industries nearing performance improvement turning points [4] Investment Strategies - Major securities firms highlight three main investment lines: technology growth, Chinese enterprises going global, and cyclical resource products [9][11][13] - The technology growth sector remains a favored direction, with a focus on performance rather than concepts, particularly in application breakthroughs [10] - The trend of Chinese enterprises expanding internationally is seen as a significant configuration clue, with a focus on sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, and electric grid equipment [12] Market Style Rotation - The potential for a style switch from "growth" to "value" around June 2026 is a focal point of discussion among securities firms [7][8] - The market is expected to trend towards a more balanced style, with cyclical industries approaching supply-demand equilibrium [8][6] Resource Products - Resource products are anticipated to become a new main line following technology, driven by global monetary easing and supply-demand gaps [13][14]
头部券商把脉2026:A股有望震荡上行,科技成长仍是投资主线
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-11-17 13:12
Core Viewpoint - The consensus among major securities firms is that the A-share market is expected to enter a "slow bull market" in 2026, with a shift in investment opportunities from technology dominance in 2025 to multiple main lines in 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market has entered a new bull market since the policy measures introduced on September 24, 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high in 2025 [2]. - Major securities firms predict that the market will continue to evolve within a slow bull framework, with a key characteristic being the shift in driving forces [3][4]. - CITIC Securities emphasizes that A-shares should be viewed from a global demand perspective, as Chinese companies' advantages in the global value chain are transforming into pricing power, forming the basis for a low-volatility slow bull market [3]. Group 2: Driving Forces - There is a general expectation among securities firms that the driving force for the market will shift from "valuation recovery" to "profit-driven" or "fundamental verification" in 2026 [4]. - CICC estimates that the overall profit growth for A-shares in 2026 could be around 4.7%, with many industries nearing performance improvement [4]. - Dongwu Securities notes that the overall revenue and profit growth for A-shares has ended a four-year downward cycle and is beginning to rebound, supported by economic reforms and improved supply-demand dynamics [4]. Group 3: Investment Styles - The debate among securities firms centers on whether the market style will shift from "growth" to "value" in 2026, with Dongwu Securities identifying June 2026 as a potential key time for this transition [6][7]. - CICC suggests that the market style may become more balanced, as many cyclical industries approach supply-demand equilibrium [8]. - Guotai Junan recommends maintaining a focus on technology while also considering previously underperforming sectors such as real estate and consumer goods during the bull market [8]. Group 4: Investment Themes - Securities firms highlight three main investment themes: technology growth, Chinese companies going global, and cyclical resource products [9][10]. - The technology growth sector remains a favored direction, with a shift in focus from concepts to performance, particularly in application breakthroughs [9]. - The trend of Chinese companies expanding internationally is seen as a significant opportunity, with recommendations to focus on sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, and global pricing resources [10][11].
北交所四周年!IPO中介机构排名(2021-2025)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-17 06:09
Core Points - The Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) celebrated its fourth anniversary on November 15, with a total of 282 listed companies as of now, having raised a net amount of 51.05 billion yuan through initial public offerings (IPOs) [1] Group 1: Listing Statistics - In 2021, 79 companies were listed, followed by 83 in 2022, 77 in 2023, 23 in 2024, and 20 so far in 2025 [1] - The statistics exclude companies that have transferred to other exchanges, such as Guandian Defense, Taixiang Co., and Hanbo High-tech [1] Group 2: Underwriting Institutions Performance - A total of 60 underwriting institutions provided IPO sponsorship services for the 282 listed companies, resulting in 284 business transactions [2][6] - The top three underwriting institutions by the number of deals are: 1. CITIC Securities with 27 deals 2. Shenwan Hongyuan with 23 deals 3. Dongwu Securities with 16 deals [2] Group 3: Legal Services Performance - 79 law firms provided legal services for the IPOs of the 282 listed companies [6] - The top three law firms by the number of deals are: 1. Shanghai Jintiancheng with 40 deals 2. Beijing Zhonglun with 20 deals 3. Beijing Deheng and Beijing Kangda, each with 16 deals [6][7] Group 4: Accounting Firms Performance - 32 accounting firms provided auditing services for the IPOs of the 282 listed companies [12] - The top three accounting firms by the number of deals are: 1. Tianjian with 43 deals 2. Lixin with 35 deals 3. Rongcheng with 31 deals [12][13]
东吴证券:产业化加速利好锂电设备商 持续推荐燃气轮机、液冷设备等AI设备
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-16 08:12
Group 1: Solid-State Battery Equipment - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is currently conducting a mid-term review, and it is expected that leading manufacturers will soon initiate equipment bidding for pilot production lines [1][2] - Solid-state batteries are still in the pilot production stage, primarily utilizing hundred-megawatt-level pilot lines, with dry processing technology as the main focus, creating new demand for equipment [2] - Investment recommendations include solid-state battery equipment suppliers such as XianDao Intelligent, laser welding equipment manufacturers like LianYing Laser, and others [2] Group 2: Gas Turbine Market - The expansion of AI data centers is driving an increase in electricity demand, necessitating reliable and stable power sources [3] - Major players in the global gas turbine market include Siemens, GE, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and Caterpillar, with significant potential for domestic brand substitution [3] - Companies such as Jereh, Haomai Technology, Yingliu, and Liande are highlighted as beneficiaries of this trend due to their existing partnerships and product offerings [3] Group 3: Liquid Cooling Technology - AI computing capital expenditures (CAPEX) are accelerating, with significant growth expected in the shipment of GB200/300 racks [4] - Liquid cooling technology is essential for addressing heat dissipation challenges in data centers, offering advantages such as low energy consumption and reduced total cost of ownership (TCO) [4] - The domestic supply chain is gradually entering the market, with companies like Yingwei and Hongsheng being recommended for their roles in liquid cooling solutions [5]
东吴证券:关注2026年市场风格新一轮转换关键窗口 AI主线或迎来中期调整
智通财经网· 2025-11-16 01:52
Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates that the A-share market is entering a new bull market, with growth style leading the way and small-cap indices outperforming large-cap indices. A potential shift from "growth to value" is expected around June 2026, influenced by industry trends and liquidity conditions [1][2]. Industry Trends - The absence of blockbuster AI applications in the first half of the year, combined with liquidity pressure from a strengthening dollar in the second half, may lead to a cautious market sentiment and a mid-term adjustment for AI stocks [3]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" starting in 2026 is expected to reinforce policies centered on technological innovation and modern industrial systems, becoming a focal point for the market in the first half of the year [3]. Market Dynamics - The transition from growth to value style is closely tied to industry and liquidity turning points. A weak dollar trend may attract previously overseas capital back to the domestic market, creating a multiplier effect that supports the economy [2]. - The report anticipates that the dollar may weaken in the first half of 2026, with a potential turning point around June, as global liquidity conditions remain favorable [2]. Profitability Analysis - A rebound in overall revenue and profit growth for A-shares is expected, ending a four-year decline since 2021. This is attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics and the deepening of market reforms [4]. - The stabilization of Return on Equity (ROE) is linked to the rebalancing of supply and demand, with expectations of improved corporate profits as anti-involution policies take effect [4]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes "technology and security" and "reform and growth." Key areas include AI technology, resource security, and sectors benefiting from geopolitical dynamics [5][6]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on sectors with improving supply-demand structures, such as lithium battery materials and traditional industries with price recovery potential [6][7]. Consumer Trends - There is an increasing necessity for policy support for service consumption and non-durable goods, with a focus on sectors like travel, hospitality, and essential consumer products expected to see improved sentiment in 2026 [7].
东吴证券:基建地产链25三季度盈利持续承压 经营性现金流表现改善
智通财经网· 2025-11-14 09:22
现金流与资产负债方面,经营性现金流表现改善,杠杆率基本稳定 (1)2025Q3基建地产链样本上市公司经营活动产生的现金流量净额为926.9 亿元,同比+143.8%,其中建 筑、建材行业经营活动产生的现金流量净额分别为754.8、172.1亿元,同比分别+278.4%、-4.8%,其中 基建房建、国际工程子行业明显改善,反映现金流管控的成效。 智通财经APP获悉,东吴证券发布研报称,2025年Q3基建地产链需求依然疲弱,行业整体盈利持续承 压。尽管营业收入降幅有所收窄,且经营性现金流显著改善,但归母净利润下滑幅度扩大,销售净率仍 处于低位,反映出终端需求不足下的激烈市场竞争。大宗周期类子行业(如水泥、玻璃玻纤)受益于价格 因素有所回暖,而建筑及部分工程类子行业则成为主要拖累。同时,应收账款周转效率放缓,表明资金 回笼压力仍在。 东吴证券主要观点如下: 利润方面营收降幅收窄,但盈利仍然承压 (1)基建地产链需求持续承压下,上市公司 2025Q3 营收延续下降态势,但降幅收窄。2025Q3基建地产 链样本上市公司整体营业收入同比 4.5%,增速环比2025Q2 变动+1.1pct。其中建筑、建材行业2025Q3 ...
东吴证券:餐饮行业中外卖与堂食的“黄金平衡点”
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-14 08:43
Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities emphasizes the increasing importance of online channels in the restaurant industry, particularly the balance between takeout and dine-in services to enhance profitability and efficiency [1][3]. Group 1: Importance of Online Channels - Online channels are becoming a key growth engine for the restaurant industry, with takeout revenue potentially reaching 60-70% for fast food and coffee sectors, while traditional dining experiences are declining [1][3]. - National restaurant revenue growth is slowing, with a reported increase of only 3.3% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025, indicating a shift from aggressive expansion to a more stable growth phase [1]. Group 2: Takeout Adaptability Across Different Formats - The adaptability of various restaurant formats to takeout is ranked from highest to lowest: beverages & fast food > casual dining > hot pot, with takeout revenue for coffee and fast food potentially reaching 50-70% [2]. - The adaptability is influenced by the type of service required, frequency of consumption, and the complexity of delivery logistics [2]. Group 3: Balancing Takeout and Dine-in - A healthy takeout ratio is crucial for restaurant brands, as it can significantly improve operational efficiency and brand competitiveness; however, over-reliance on takeout can lead to a loss of brand identity and profitability [3]. - The optimal takeout revenue ratio for fast food and coffee is suggested to be 60-70%, while for traditional dining, it is 30-40% to avoid operational inefficiencies [3]. Group 4: Strategies for Internal Growth - Restaurants should establish a takeout revenue threshold and innovate their takeout offerings while also focusing on building a proprietary membership system to convert external traffic into internal loyalty [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The industry is rated as "outperforming the market," with a focus on balancing takeout and dine-in strategies tailored to consumer trends and brand positioning [5]. - Recommended companies include Xiaocaiyuan, Guoquan, Guming, Mixue Group, Haidilao, and Yum China, with additional attention on Green Tea Group, Dashihua, Tongqinglou, Guangzhou Restaurant, Jiumaojiu, and Chabaidao [5].