证券研究报告·公司点评报告·能源金属 藏格矿业（000408） 2024 年半年报点评：碳酸锂成本优势维持， 铜价上涨投资收益丰厚 2024 年 08 月 14 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|--------|---------|---------|--------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 8194 | 5226 | 3073 | 2997 | 3001 | | 同比（%） | 126.19 | (36.22) | (41.19) | (2.47) | 0.12 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5655 | 3420 | 2265 | 2494 | 3412 | | 同比（%） | 296.19 | (39.52) | (33.78) | 10.12 | 36.81 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.58 | 2.16 | 1 ...

证 2024 年 08 月 13 日 研 究 报 公 司 研 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

2024 年 8 月 13 日 公司研究 氯化钾及碳酸锂价跌营收承压，巨龙铜业投资收益显著增加 ——藏格矿业（000408.SZ）2024 年半年报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年半年度报告。2024 年上半年，公司实现营收 17.62 亿 元，同比减少 37.0%；实现归母净利润 12.97 亿元，同比减少 36.0%；实现扣 非后归母净利润 12.78 亿元，同比减少 36.1%。24Q2，公司单季度实现营收 11.47 亿元，同比减少 19.4%，环比增长 86.7%；实现归母净利润 7.68 亿元，同比减 少 30.6%，环比增长 45.1%。 点评： 氯化钾及碳酸锂价格下跌，巨龙铜业投资收益显著增加。2024 年上半年，公司 氯化钾及碳酸锂业务分别实现营收 11.22 亿元和 6.34 亿元，分别实现销量 54.01 万吨和 7630 吨。2024H1，由于港口库存处于高位，氯化钾价格整体偏低，公 司氯化钾平均销售价格下跌 26.5%；碳酸锂整体累库较多，供需失衡状态延续， 公司碳酸锂平均销售价格下跌 63.9%。由于氯化钾及碳酸锂两大主要产品价格 的下跌，24H1 公司毛利率同比下降 22 ...

关于回购股份事项前十名股东 和前十名无限售条件股东持股情况的公告 证券代码：000408 证券简称：藏格矿业 公告编号：2024-053 藏格矿业股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 注：以上股东的持股数量为合并普通账户和融资融券信用账户后的持股数量。 二、前十名无限售条件的股东持股情况 | 序号 | 股东名称 | 持股数量（股） | 占总股本的比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 西藏藏格创业投资集团有限公司 | 361,588,493 | 22.88% | | 2 | 宁波梅山保税港区新沙鸿运投资管理有限 | 271,921,719 | 17.21% | | | 公司 | | | | 3 | 肖永明 | 155,643,647 | 9.85% | | 4 | 四川省永鸿实业有限公司 | 72,042,679 | 4.56% | | 5 | 香港中央结算有限公司 | 24,589,772 | 1.56% | | 6 | 浙江弘悦私募基金管理有限公司－弘悦晟 | 18,602,258 | 1.18% ...

证券代码：000408 证券简称：藏格矿业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|---------------------------|-------------|----------------| | | | | 编号：2024-013 | | | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | | | 投资者关系 | □媒体采访 | □业绩说明会 | | | 活动类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | | | □现场参观 | | | ■其他 （电话会议） 光大证券 马 俊 浙商证券 王南清 参与单位名 民生证券 南雪源 称及人员姓 华福证券 王子凯 名 国泰君安 宁紫薇 信达证券 张 航 长江证券 王筱茜等 126 位机构投资者 时间 2024 年 8 月 12 日 地点 "藏格矿业投资者关系"微信小程序 藏格矿业财务总监 田太垠 上市公司接 藏格矿业董事会秘书 李瑞雪 待人员姓名 藏格矿业投资者关系主管 陈牧迪 公司董事会秘书李瑞雪先生对公司 2024 年上半年度生产 经营情况做了介绍；公司财务总监田太垠先生、董事会秘书 投资者关系 李瑞雪先生、投资者关系主管陈 ...

Summary of Conference Call Transcript Company and Industry Involved - The document pertains to a company involved in the production and sale of carbonate products, specifically focusing on carbonates with a reported quantity of 5809 tons. Core Points and Arguments - The company reported a year-on-year increase in carbonate quantity sold by 28.89% [1] - The average sales cost of carbonates was noted to be 41,300 yuan per ton, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 0.44% [1] - The company is actively expanding its downstream market by securing long-term clients and enhancing the proportion of long-term customers [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The focus on increasing the share of long-term customers indicates a strategic shift towards building sustainable relationships in the market, which may enhance revenue stability in the future [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and outlook of Cangge Mining, focusing on its various segments including copper, lithium carbonate, and potassium chloride [1][2][3][4]. Key Points by Segment Copper Segment - **Production and Revenue**: Expected copper production for 2024 is 15.83 million tons, with a target of 16.6 million tons. H1 production exceeded expectations by 50% [2]. - **Financials**: Revenue reached 61.2 million, with a profit of 27.78 million. The company holds a 30.78% stake, generating investment income of 8.55 million [2]. - **Resource Expansion**: New resource addition of 1,472 million tons, totaling 25.88 million tons, making it the largest copper mine in China [2]. - **Future Plans**: Phase II expected to be completed by the end of 2025, with production starting in Q1 2026. Phase III is planned to start in 2025 and be completed by 2028, targeting a total copper production of 60 million tons per year [2]. - **Share Transfer**: Significant share transfers to Zijin Mining, altering the ownership structure [2]. Lithium Carbonate Segment - **Production and Sales**: LCE production was 5,809 tons, with sales of 7,630 tons. Annual targets are set at 10,500 tons for production and 10,499 tons for sales [3]. - **Financial Performance**: Revenue was 6.34 million, down 43.4% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 50.3% [3]. - **Price Trends**: Average LCE price fell to 93,900 per ton, a 63.9% decrease year-on-year. The company remains optimistic about downstream demand despite rising inventory levels [3]. - **Market Conditions**: Industry inventory is increasing, with current stock at 10.69 million tons, indicating a potential oversupply [3]. Potassium Chloride Segment - **Production and Sales**: KCl production was 52.28 million tons, with sales of 54.01 million tons, aligning with annual targets [4]. - **Financials**: Revenue from KCl sales was 11.22 million, down 32.7% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 48.3% [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic KCl apparent consumption increased by 15.5% year-on-year, with a positive price outlook for the second half of the year due to seasonal demand [4]. Other Important Insights - **Tax Payments**: The company paid 399 million in resource taxes and penalties, with a total of 480 million for the period 2021-2023. It also received tax refunds totaling 265 million [7]. - **Dividend and Share Buyback**: The company announced a cash dividend of 408 million, with a current share price of 22.48, resulting in a dividend yield of 1.15%. Plans for a share buyback of 150-300 million are in place [6]. - **Capital Expenditure**: The company has no bank loans and has applied for a credit line of 3 billion to balance dividends and capital expenditures [6]. - **Project Developments**: Ongoing projects in Laos and Tibet are progressing, with significant resource estimates and plans for further development [5]. Conclusion - Cangge Mining is navigating a challenging market environment with mixed performance across its segments. The company is focusing on production expansion, managing costs, and maintaining a balanced approach to dividends and capital investments while addressing tax obligations and project developments.

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 藏格矿业(000408.SZ) 2024 年 08 月 12 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：有色金属/能源金属 当前价格(元)：22.48 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 康宇豪 资格编号：S0120524050001 邮箱：kangyh＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 藏格矿业 沪深300 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 57% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 相关研究 1.《铜行业跟踪：24Q2 铜价创新高， Q3TC 骤 降 ， 供 需 持 续 紧 张 》， 2024.7.11 2.《铜行业跟踪：TC 走低致冶炼减产 预期， 2024Q1 铜 价 震 荡 升 高 》， 2024.4.2 3.《藏格矿业（000408.SZ）：钾为基 石，锂为成长，铜为助力，共创未来》， 2024.4.1 沪深300对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅(%) -12.66 -12.56 -21.46 相对涨幅(%) -8.73 -6.60 -12.33 资 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 能源金属 | --- | --- | |----------------------|------------------------------------------| | 藏格矿业 (000408) | 报告日期： 2024 年 08 月 11 日 | | 铜矿投资收益亮眼 | | | ——藏格矿业半年报点评 | | 投资要点 ❑ 公司发布半年报，上半年实现营收 17.6 亿元，同比-37.0%；实现归母净利润 13 亿元，同比-36.0%；扣非归母净利润 12.8 亿元，同比-36.1%。单季度看，24Q2 实现营收 11.5 亿元，同比-19.4%，环比+86.8%；实现归母净利润 7.7 亿元，同 比-30.6%，环比+45.1%；扣非归母净利润 7.0 亿元，同比-35.5%，环比 +21.1%。 ❑ Q2 钾肥价格反弹，未来下行空间有限 上半年公司实现氯化钾产量 52.28 万吨，同比下降 1.47%；实现销量 54.01 万 吨，同比下降 8.41%。上半年公司氯化钾平均售价 2265.4 元/吨，同比下降 26.5%；平均销售成本 1075 元/吨，同比上升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Zangge Mining [3][6][13] Core Insights - In Q2 2024, the recurring net profit increased by 21.11% quarter-on-quarter, and the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of approximately RMB 408.33 million [4][9][12] - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with operating revenue of RMB 1.762 billion, down 37% year-on-year, and net profit of RMB 1.297 billion, down 35.99% year-on-year [4][9][10] - The company is actively pursuing key projects, including the Mamiguo Salt Lake Project and various potash mine projects in Laos, which are progressing as planned [11][12] Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company achieved potassium chloride production of 522,800 tonnes and lithium carbonate production of 5,809 tonnes, with respective revenue declines of 32.70% and 43.39% year-on-year [10][11] - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is adjusted to RMB 2.778 billion, RMB 3.289 billion, and RMB 4.438 billion, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.76, RMB 2.08, and RMB 2.81 [13][14] - The target price is set at RMB 33.12, reflecting a potential upside of 26.90% based on a P/E ratio of 18.82 for 2024 [6][13] Share Repurchase Plan - The company intends to conduct a new round of share repurchase, with a budget of RMB 150 million to RMB 300 million, and plans to cancel all repurchased shares [6][12][13]