Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The new consumption trend continues, focusing on low-priced/undervalued stocks with potential catalysts, particularly in the food and beverage sector. Key areas of focus include "category dividends in the food sector," "new channel drivers like membership supermarkets," and "new hotspots in health products" [2][16] - The traditional consumption represented by liquor may face pressure, with current recommendations for leading brands in the fragrance category [12][16] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is expected to face pressure in Q2, with current valuations remaining low. Recommended stocks include leading brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu for medium-term positioning [12][16] - Recent performance shows a decline of 0.84% in the liquor sector, with notable increases in stocks like Jinhui Liquor (+6.25%) and Huangtai Liquor (+5.03%) [3][22] - Guizhou Moutai has launched new products at the 2025 Osaka World Expo, indicating ongoing brand expansion efforts [4] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector continues to show potential, with a focus on stocks like New Dairy, Jin Zai Food, and Aijia Food. The sector saw a rise in non-dairy beverages (+1.33%) and meat products (+1.30%) [2][22] - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with a recommendation for leading stocks in the retail transformation and cost cycle opportunities [16] Market Performance - From June 3 to June 6, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.88%, with the non-dairy beverage and meat product sectors leading the gains. In contrast, other liquor categories saw declines [22] - The valuation levels in the food and beverage industry have adjusted, with the industry trading at 21.64 times earnings, while specific segments like liquor are trading at varying multiples [28]

Group 1 - The 2025 RCEP Local Government and Friendship City Cooperation Forum was held in Huangshan, Anhui Province, showcasing the deep charm of Chinese liquor culture through the strategic partnership of Gujing Gongjiu [1][13] - Gujing Gongjiu introduced the "Gujing Gongjiu Year Original Ancient 20 Osaka Expo China Pavilion Official Partner Commemorative Wine" at the forum, utilizing live streaming and holographic projection to enhance audience engagement [3][5] - A cooperation agreement was signed between Gujing Gongjiu and the Korea Anhui Industrial Development Co., Ltd. to expand sales in the Korean market and enhance brand international recognition [4][7] Group 2 - Gujing Gongjiu's international department director presented a promotion titled "Let Chinese Liquor Become the Language of the World," emphasizing the integration of liquor with the health industry [7] - The company has participated as the official partner of the China Pavilion at five consecutive expos, promoting Chinese liquor culture and local cultural characteristics globally [7] - Gujing Gongjiu has entered over 30 countries and regions worldwide, leveraging its unique brewing process and rich historical culture [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [56]. Core Viewpoints - The white liquor market is experiencing sluggish sales, while attention should be paid to beer and other seasonal consumption [51]. - The SW food and beverage industry index fell by 1.83% from May 23 to June 5, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 0.90 percentage points [13]. - Most sub-sectors within the industry outperformed the CSI 300 index during the same period, with the soft drink sector seeing the largest increase of 8.72% [15]. - Approximately 70% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns, with notable gainers including Junyao Health (+62.74%) and Miaokelando (+21.27%) [17]. - The overall industry valuation is below the five-year average, with a current PE (TTM) of approximately 21.40 times, compared to the historical average of 34 times [21]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW food and beverage industry index underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 1.83% from May 23 to June 5, 2025 [13]. - Most sub-sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the soft drink sector leading at an increase of 8.72% [15]. - About 70% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with significant gains from Junyao Health and Miaokelando [17]. Industry Data Tracking White Liquor Sector - The prices of major white liquor brands, such as Feitian and Guojiao 1573, have decreased recently, indicating market pressure [24]. Seasonality and Consumer Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring seasonal consumption trends, particularly in beer and soft drinks, as the industry enters a peak consumption period [51]. Valuation Metrics - The current industry PE (TTM) is approximately 21.40 times, which is below the five-year average of 34 times, suggesting potential undervaluation [21]. Key Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-certainty stocks such as Kweichow Moutai (600519) and other regional liquor brands like Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) and Gujing Gongjiu (000596) [51]. - In the broader consumer goods sector, companies like Haitian Flavoring (603288), Qingdao Beer (600600), and Yili (600887) are highlighted for their growth potential [51].

Industry Dynamics - Nine local specialty liquor industries have been included in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's cultivation list, including Beijing Erguotou, Huizhou grape wine, and others [2] - Meituan Flash Purchase reported over 18 times growth in liquor sales on the first day of the "618" shopping festival compared to last year, with baijiu sales increasing over 70 times [2][3] - Analysts believe the rapid growth in sales indicates an unstoppable trend towards C-end liquor distribution, which may impact the traditional B-end model in the baijiu industry [2][3] - The China Alcoholic Drinks Association has approved new group standards for various types of sauce-flavored baijiu to provide standardized guidance for production and quality [4] - Australian wine exports increased by 41% to AUD 2.64 billion, driven by the removal of import tariffs on bottled wine by China [4] Company Dynamics - Kweichow Moutai has repurchased a total of 3.31 million shares, accounting for 0.2635% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of CNY 5.1 billion [5] - Wuliangye released a report on the historical lineage of its product, showcasing the evolution of its traditional brewing techniques over 28 generations [5] - Fenjiu held a technology quality conference focusing on innovation strategies and quality improvement for 2025 [5] - Yanghe's Super Fan Festival featured immersive activities and will take place in Changsha in July 2025 [6] - Gujing Gongjiu hosted a themed day at the Osaka World Expo, marking its sixth consecutive partnership with the event [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the commitment of Gujing Gongjiu to rural revitalization and the integration of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries through its unique industrial advantages and social responsibility initiatives [1][9]. Group 1: Rural Revitalization Initiatives - Gujing Gongjiu is actively supporting rural revitalization by celebrating the harvest season and showcasing the integration of agricultural production with its liquor production process [1]. - The company has established grain planting bases through order agriculture, which not only enhances the income of local farmers but also ensures a stable supply of high-quality raw materials for its liquor production [3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Gujing Gongjiu is leveraging technology to enhance production efficiency and quality, implementing a comprehensive IoT system for monitoring and managing the entire grain cultivation process [3][5]. - The company has achieved a 96% equipment networking rate in its smart brewing facility, allowing for a fully automated production process while adhering to traditional brewing methods [6][8]. Group 3: Social Responsibility - Gujing Gongjiu emphasizes its corporate social responsibility by engaging in poverty alleviation efforts and fostering self-sufficiency in rural communities through education and training [11][12]. - The company has received multiple awards for its social responsibility initiatives, including the "Precision Poverty Alleviation Award" and recognition as one of the "Top 100 Social Responsibility Enterprises" in China's food industry [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Gujing Gongjiu aims to continue its focus on quality, technology, and social responsibility, contributing to the high-quality development of the Chinese liquor industry and rural revitalization efforts [12].

Core Viewpoint - The event "Four Seasons Village Song" and the fifth Harvest Season of Gujing Gongjiu serves as a platform for the company to showcase its quality and cultural heritage while celebrating the harvest [1] Group 1: Quality and Production - The Huanghuai Plain is highlighted as a natural cradle for the quality of Gujing Gongjiu, providing favorable climatic and soil conditions for the growth of high-quality soft winter wheat [3] - The production process of "Taohua Chunqu" is complex and requires strict quality control, with only the best soft winter wheat from the Huanghuai Plain meeting the standards [5] - Gujing Gongjiu's birthplace, Bozhou, is recognized as a significant grain production base and a renowned liquor-producing region, ensuring a steady supply of quality raw materials [6] Group 2: Technological Innovation and Management - Gujing Gongjiu has established a three-dimensional monitoring system in its raw grain bases to ensure 100% traceability and quality control of the wheat used for brewing [8] - The company has launched a smart management platform for raw grain cultivation, integrating ecological wisdom and technological innovation [8] - The establishment of the Gujing Gongjiu Grain Research Institute aims to enhance product quality through scientific research and the development of new wheat varieties [10] Group 3: Agricultural Integration and Future Development - Gujing Gongjiu promotes order agriculture by signing contracts with farmers, providing them with seeds, fertilizers, and technical support, ensuring a reliable supply of quality raw materials [12] - The company aims to leverage the unique advantages of the Bozhou region to continuously improve product quality and contribute to the prosperity of the Chinese liquor industry [12]

5月27日至28日，2025四季村歌特色展演暨古井贡酒（000596）年份原浆第五届原粮丰收季在古井酒神 广场盛大开幕。 与此同时，在古井贡酒原粮生态基地，随着一声"开收喽！"的响亮号令，数十台大型联合收割机的引擎 轰鸣划破天际，如同庄严的序曲。金色的麦浪在五月暖风中翻滚起伏，满载麦粒的运输车穿梭不息。也 正是在这片大地上，一场关乎美酒灵魂的溯源之旅，从这最朴素的"第一粒粮"磅礴启程。 匠心挑选："第一车间"里的品质基石 智慧丰产：科技赋能的"粮心"守护 也正是对高品质孜孜不倦的追求，驱动古井贡酒不断将匠心与科技深度融合。2021年，古井联合国家粮 食和物资储备局、中国农科院、中国农业大学等权威机构，共同成立了"古井贡酒.年份原浆粮食研究 院"。这个"最强大脑"专注于酿酒专用粮的研究：从高粱品质评价、专用玉米大米新品种选育，到中高 温大曲小麦原料的深度优选，为品质的持续提升扎牢科技根基。 在广袤的麦田里，科技的力量正悄然改变传统的耕作图景。古井贡酒携手科研机构打造的原粮智慧管理 平台，构建了"空中、田间、地下"的三维监测网络。传感器实时捕捉着土壤温湿度、盐分、电导率、光 照强度等关键数据；物联网技术实现了对小 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gujinggongjiu is actively promoting the internationalization of Chinese liquor through cultural exchange and quality enhancement, establishing itself as a pioneer in this field [1][2]. Group 1: Internationalization Strategy - Since accelerating its internationalization in 2014, Gujinggongjiu has implemented innovative measures to enhance brand influence, including the "Chinese Wine Culture Global Tour" [2]. - The global tour has successfully held events in key markets such as Düsseldorf, Paris, London, and Hong Kong, receiving widespread acclaim from consumers [2]. - The establishment of the Gujinggongjiu Cultural Research Institute in Berlin in October 2023 marks a significant milestone in its international efforts [3]. Group 2: International Collaborations - In November 2023, Gujinggongjiu launched a collaboration with the Camus Group for the Anhui Guqi Whisky Distillery project, creating a new model for blending Chinese and foreign brewing techniques [5]. - The company will participate in the 2025 Osaka World Expo, where it will unveil the "Gujinggongjiu Vintage Original Liquor" commemorating its six-time participation in expos [7]. Group 3: Global Presence - Gujinggongjiu has expanded its reach to over 30 countries across Asia, Europe, America, Africa, and Australia, including RCEP member countries like Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand [9]. - The company will serve as a strategic partner and designated liquor for the 2025 RCEP Local Government and Friendship City Cooperation Forum, further energizing its internationalization efforts [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The new consumption trend continues, focusing on low-priced/undervalued stocks with potential catalysts, particularly in the food sector, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - The report highlights the need to pay attention to the white liquor sector, which may face pressure in the second quarter, suggesting a focus on leading brands with strong market positions [16][29]. Summary by Sections White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector is currently under pressure, with a recommendation to prioritize leading brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu for mid-term investments [16][29]. - Recent policies regarding public receptions may impact white liquor consumption, but the overall effect is expected to be limited due to a shift from government to business consumption since 2016 [7][16]. - The report notes that the white liquor sector is still in a bottoming phase, with opportunities for mid-term positioning in leading brands [4][16]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector shows a continuation of the new consumption trend, with a focus on potential catalysts in food categories, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - Recommended stocks in this sector include Jin Zai Foods, New Dairy, Anji Foods, and others, with a focus on companies that can leverage new retail opportunities [2][29]. Market Performance - From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.08%, while non-dairy beverages and other liquor categories saw gains of 8.96% and 7.93%, respectively, with white liquor declining by 2.80% [2][35]. - Specific stocks such as Tianyoude Liquor and Huazhi Liquor showed positive performance, while others like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu experienced declines [3][39]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the pricing trends of key white liquor brands, indicating stable prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, with slight fluctuations noted [15][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu, with a target price of 300 RMB [1]. Core Views - The company is navigating industry cyclicality with a focus on steady growth, emphasizing long-term high-quality development while actively capturing market share [1]. - The management acknowledges the current pressures in the liquor industry but believes that the unique product attributes of liquor allow it to withstand economic cycles [1]. - The company is committed to enhancing operational efficiency and market penetration, focusing on internal management optimization and external market expansion [1]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 23,578 million RMB - 2025E: 26,086 million RMB (16.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: 28,813 million RMB (10.6% YoY growth) - 2027E: 31,758 million RMB (10.5% YoY growth) [1] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 5,518 million RMB - 2025E: 6,143 million RMB (20.2% YoY growth) - 2026E: 6,862 million RMB (11.3% YoY growth) - 2027E: 7,678 million RMB (11.7% YoY growth) [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 10.44 RMB - 2025E: 11.62 RMB - 2026E: 12.98 RMB - 2027E: 14.53 RMB [1] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 13 times, indicating attractive valuation [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on practical operations and enhancing product offerings, particularly in the mid-range price segment, to drive growth [1]. - Management is implementing a four-pronged strategy to alleviate channel pressures, including boosting sales, reducing inventory, expanding channels, and stabilizing prices [1]. - The company aims to build a robust marketing team and enhance product competitiveness through improved pricing strategies and product quality [1].