Investment Rating - The report recommends a "left-side investment opportunity" in the pig farming sector, indicating a positive outlook despite current challenges [5][6]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index increased by 0.3%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.9%. Notable stock performances included Shen Nong Technology (up 35.7%) and Guotou Zhonglu (up 20.8%) [5][6]. - The pig price rebounded significantly due to the re-entry of the second batch of fattening pigs and increased retail demand as the year-end approaches. However, the report suggests that this price increase may not be sustainable in the coming quarters [5][6]. - The pet sector is experiencing a valuation shift as the year-end approaches, with a focus on companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and others [5][6]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average selling price of the national external three yuan pigs was 12.21 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 7.0%. The price surge is attributed to the re-entry of fattening pigs and a decrease in supply [5][6]. - The report indicates that the industry remains below the breakeven line, with losses reported for small-scale and medium-scale operations. The outlook for the next 1-2 quarters suggests a bottoming out of prices, with ongoing capacity reduction [5][6]. Pet Industry - The seventh Pet New National Goods Conference was held, revealing that the Chinese pet market is expected to reach a size of 154.5 to 160 billion yuan in 2025. The market is characterized by channel differentiation and a focus on specific product categories [5][6]. - Ruipai Pet Hospital submitted an application for an IPO, aiming to become the first publicly listed pet hospital in China [5][6]. Meat Chicken Farming - The average selling price of white feather broiler chicks was 3.37 yuan/chick, with a slight decrease of 0.6% week-on-week. The price of white feather broiler meat reached a new high of 3.80 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.7% [5][6]. Beef Industry - The prices of beef and cattle have slightly decreased, with the average price of fattened bulls at 25.47 yuan/kg, down 0.24% week-on-week [5][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant rebound in pig prices due to the re-entry of the second batch of fattening pigs and a rise in consumer sentiment as the year-end approaches. However, it notes that this price increase may not be sustainable in the coming quarters due to an oversupply situation [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the need to focus on the ongoing capacity reduction in the pig farming sector and suggests left-side investment opportunities in this area. It also mentions a potential valuation shift in the pet sector as it undergoes adjustments [5][6]. - The report provides specific recommendations for companies to watch, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Dekang Agriculture, Tiankang Biological, Noposion, Guai Bao Pet, Zhongchong Pet, and Petty [5][6]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 0.3%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.9%. The top five gainers included Shennong Technology (35.7%), Guotou Zhonglu (20.8%), and Jinliang Holdings (19.9%) [5][6]. Pig Farming - The average selling price of external three yuan pigs was 12.21 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 7.0%. The report indicates that the current price increase is driven by several factors, including the re-entry of fattening pigs and a decrease in available pig sources [5][6]. - The report forecasts that pig prices will continue to fluctuate at the bottom level, with a focus on the progress of capacity reduction in the industry [5][6]. Pet Sector - The report mentions the seventh Pet New National Goods Conference held in Wuhan, projecting the annual market size of China's pet industry to be between 154.5 billion and 160 billion yuan. It highlights the rapid growth in the pet market and the emergence of new customer segments [5][6]. - Ruipai Pet Hospital has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating a positive outlook for the pet medical service sector [5][6]. Poultry Farming - The average selling price of white feather broiler chicks was 3.37 yuan/chick, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.6%. The report notes that the supply of white feather broilers remains abundant, which is expected to be a theme for 2025-2026 [5][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The supply of fat pigs is tight, leading to an upward trend in pig prices before the New Year, supported by both supply and demand factors [4][14] - The export value of pet food has improved month-on-month, benefiting from increased export volumes, although the unit price remains under pressure [5][21] - The pig farming sector is experiencing accelerated losses, while the pet food sector is seeing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [6][23][25] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The average price of live pigs in China as of December 28, 2025, is 12.21 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.78 CNY/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 3.49 CNY/kg [4][14] - The average weight of pigs sold is 129.70 kg, with a slight decrease from the previous week [14] Weekly Market Performance (Dec 22-26) - The agricultural index underperformed the market by 1.63 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.88% and the agricultural index by 0.25% [26][30] Price Tracking (Dec 22-26) - The average price of live pigs is 11.63 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.05 CNY/kg [37] - The average price of broiler chickens is 7.82 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 6.39% [37] Key Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Juxing Agriculture [6][23] - In the feed sector, recommended stocks include Haida Group and New Hope Liuhe [6][23] - For the pet food sector, recommended stocks include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty [6][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights a structural shortage in the pig industry, with pessimistic expectations likely to be corrected [2] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends a positive outlook on the pig farming sector, suggesting that recent policies and market dynamics will drive capacity reduction, benefiting long-term performance. Key stocks include Muyuan Foods (002714, Buy), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498, Buy), and Shennong Group (605296, Not Rated) [3] - For the post-cycle sector, the report notes a continuing structural growth trend, with potential profit transmission down the supply chain if the current capacity reduction in pig farming proceeds smoothly. Relevant stocks include Haida Group (002311, Buy) and Reap Bio (300119, Not Rated) [3] - In the planting chain, the report indicates a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, with favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, highlighting significant investment opportunities. Related stocks include Suqian Agricultural Development (601952, Not Rated), Beidahuang (600598, Not Rated), Hainan Rubber (601118, Not Rated), and Longping High-Tech (000998, Not Rated) [3] - The pet sector is noted for being in a phase of growth and price increases, with continuous expansion in overseas markets and rising domestic brand recognition. Key stocks include Guibao Pet (301498, Not Rated), Zhongchong Co. (002891, Not Rated), and Petty Holdings (300673, Not Rated) [3] Industry Fundamentals - The report discusses the acceleration of capacity reduction in the pig industry, with the average price of live pigs as of December 26 at 11.63 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.43% [13] - The report notes that the supply side is experiencing structural shortages, leading to price increases for medium and large pigs, with expectations of increased sales activity from smallholders as the New Year approaches [13] - The report also covers the white feather broiler chicken market, indicating a return to low volatility with prices rising to 7.82 CNY/kg, a week-on-week increase of 6.39% [19] - The report highlights the feed sector, noting that raw material prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices at 2338.63 CNY/ton, down 0.43% week-on-week, and soybean meal prices at 3174.86 CNY/ton, up 1.20% [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][42] Core Views - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with an increase of 1.55% from December 12 to December 25, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 0.43 percentage points [11][14] - All sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in agricultural product processing (3.04%), animal health (2.95%), planting (2.28%), fishery (1.56%), breeding (0.81%), and feed (0.29%) [14][15] - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 2.79 times, indicating a slight recovery in valuation, which remains at a historical low level, around the 62.7 percentile since 2006 [18][24] Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-way cross pigs increased from 11.45 CNY/kg to 11.59 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn and soybean meal has slightly decreased, with corn priced at 2338.04 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3102 CNY/ton as of December 25, 2025 [22][24] - **Profitability**: As of December 26, 2025, the profit for self-bred pigs was -130.11 CNY/head, and for purchased piglets, it was -162.8 CNY/head, showing a reduction in losses compared to the previous two weeks [27] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.59 CNY/chick, showing a slight increase, while the average price for white feather broilers was 7.82 CNY/kg, with profitability improving to 0.89 CNY/chick [29][33] Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in pig prices as the seasonal consumption peak approaches, with a focus on the high inventory of breeding sows and the opportunities for leading pig farming companies [42][43] - In poultry farming, the report highlights the recovery in white feather broiler prices and the improvement in profitability, suggesting a positive outlook for leading poultry companies [42][43] - The report also notes growth potential in the domestic pet market and the expected increase in export volumes, recommending attention to promising domestic leaders in this sector [42][43]

回锅肉、红烧肉、狮子头、锅包肉……这些以猪肉为主要食材、居民耳熟能详的家常菜随处可见。菜系 的丰盛、口味的多元背后既反映了国内需求不断提升，又凝聚了生猪育种多年来的持续突破和产业发展 的结晶。养好一头猪，"科技+育种"无疑是关键。 "这个芯片提高了基因组育种值预测的准确性，带动分子育种检测成本大幅下降、检测效率有效提 升。"吴珍芳说。 我国90%以上的猪肉由杜洛克、长白、大白3个世界通用的瘦肉型生猪品种通过杂交生产，这3个品种引 入我国后已进行了40余年的本土化选育。在广东中芯种业科技有限公司的养殖场内，华南农业大学教 授、国家生猪种业工程技术研究中心主任吴珍芳正带着几位研究生分析围栏内种猪的发育情况。"目前 国产生猪种源市场占有率达到95%，前10%的核心群整体性能已经基本达到国际先进水平。"吴珍芳告 诉记者。 2024年，我国生猪出栏量达到7亿头、规模化生产遍布全国；猪肉产量5706万吨，占全国猪牛羊禽肉产 量比重接近60%。市场需求推动各养猪企业从传统模式向数字化、智能化转型。温氏集团通过与华为合 作，从育种到养殖出栏实现高效可视化管理，养殖场有专属"AI兽医"提供初步诊断结果和建议；监控屏 幕全时掌控 ...

据天眼查APP显示，温氏食品集团股份有限公司成立于1993年07月26日，注册资本665392.7141万人民 币。（数据宝） 12月25日温氏股份大宗交易一览 （原标题：温氏股份大宗交易成交16.50万股 成交额274.73万元） 温氏股份12月25日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量16.50万股，成交金额274.73万元，大宗交易成交 价为16.65元。该笔交易的买方营业部为中信证券华南股份有限公司广东分公司，卖方营业部为机构专 用。 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生14笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为7844.90万元。 证券时报•数据宝统计显示，温氏股份今日收盘价为16.65元，上涨0.12%，日换手率为0.38%，成交额为 3.82亿元，全天主力资金净流入2859.36万元，近5日该股累计下跌2.23%，近5日资金合计净流出4349.94 万元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为9.18亿元，近5日增加1984.63万元，增幅为2.21%。 | 成交量 （万股） | 成交金额 （万元） | 成交价格 （元） | 相对当日 收盘折溢价 （%） | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | ...

Livestock Sector - The pig farming industry is entering a "new cost competition pattern," with overall micro-profitability expected in 2025, and leading companies becoming stronger [1] - The production capacity of breeding sows is at a reasonable high level, with policy guidance aimed at reduction, leading to weaker price fluctuations [1] - Key companies to focus on include Muyuan Foods (牧原股份), Wens Foodstuff Group (温氏股份), and Lihua Agricultural (立华股份) [1] Beef Cattle Industry - The beef cattle industry is experiencing a deep supply clearance, similar to the pig industry before 2019, with significant risks of overcapacity due to prolonged losses [2] - In November 2024, the loss per head reached over 1,600 yuan, marking eight consecutive months of losses exceeding 1,000 yuan, prompting accelerated culling of breeding cows [2] - The cow production cycle (PSY) is only 1, significantly lower than the breeding sow PSY of 30, indicating a substantial reduction in beef supply expected by 2026 [2] - Recommended stocks include Youran Dairy (优然牧业) and Fucheng Group (福成股份) [2] Edible Mushroom Industry - The industry is seeing a rational return of production capacity, with leading companies solidifying their market positions [3] - The artificial cultivation of Cordyceps is entering a performance release phase, opening a second growth curve [3] - Traditional products like enoki mushrooms are experiencing alleviated overcapacity, with stable CR5 [3]

Group 1 - The average wholesale price of pork on December 23 was 17.5 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.7% increase from December 16, indicating a rebound in pork prices [1] - Since December, the price gap between medium and standard pigs has been insufficient in some regions, leading to a lack of confidence in medium to large pigs, which may accelerate the active reduction of production capacity [2] - The agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.2% from December 16, with a year-on-year increase of 6.9% and a month-on-month increase of 3.3% [2] Group 2 - Historical data shows that the rapid decline in pig prices since mid-October has led to losses across the entire industry chain, which typically accelerates the reduction of production capacity [2] - Investment perspective suggests that the turning point for pork prices may occur in Q2-Q3 of 2026, with the price center expected to gradually rise [2] - The current valuation level of the pig farming sector is relatively low, providing a sufficient margin of safety for investors [2] Group 3 - The Agricultural 50 ETF (516810.SH) focuses on leading companies in the pig farming industry, with major holdings including Muyuan Foods (14%), Wens Foodstuff Group (13%), and Haida Group (6%) [3] - During the capacity reduction process, leading pig farming enterprises are expected to enhance their cost advantages, resulting in strong profit certainty [3]

Group 1: Livestock Industry - The pig industry is currently in a phase of deep losses, with supply contraction expected to continue into the first half of 2026, leading to a significant reduction in production capacity. The average pig price for 2025 is projected to be below the cost line, with quarterly estimates of 15.5 CNY/kg, 13.5 CNY/kg, 16.4 CNY/kg, and 17.7 CNY/kg, resulting in an annual average of approximately 13.4 CNY/kg [11][25][26] - The white chicken market is experiencing a cautious outlook, with a projected supply growth of less than 5% for 2026. The decline in the sales of commodity broiler chicks indicates a more conservative price expectation within the industry [30][35] - The yellow chicken sector remains stable, with production capacity not significantly affected. The prices are expected to follow trends in other protein sources, with a focus on seasonal price increases [39] - The beef market is anticipated to see a price increase due to a clear reduction in both domestic and international supply. The wholesale price of beef has been rising, reaching 66.21 CNY/kg in December, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [42][70] Group 2: Agricultural Inputs and Other Sectors - The feed industry is showing signs of recovery, with a 6.6% year-on-year increase in feed production for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating improved demand from the livestock sector [71][76] - The edible mushroom sector is witnessing a rebound, particularly with the reversal of the predicament faced by enoki mushrooms and the potential growth of new products like Cordyceps [3][80] - The pet industry continues to thrive, with a notable trend towards high-end domestic products, as evidenced by the performance of brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [4][63] - The natural sweetener market is expected to grow as consumer awareness of sugar reduction increases, with companies like Bailong Chuangyuan and Baolingbao positioned to benefit from this trend [4][71]