Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in crude oil prices in Q4 2025, with Brent crude averaging $63.1 per barrel, down 7.4% quarter-on-quarter and 14.7% year-on-year [3]. - The report anticipates a mixed performance across the petrochemical sector, with upstream performance under pressure while downstream sectors show signs of improvement [3]. - Key companies in the industry are expected to experience varied profit margins, with some facing significant declines while others show resilience [3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - Brent crude oil price in Q4 2025 was $63.1 per barrel, down 7.5% from Q3 and 14.8% year-on-year [4]. - Key petrochemical products such as methanol and polypropylene saw price declines of 8.2% and 8.3% respectively in Q4 2025 compared to Q3 [4]. Price Differentials - The report notes that the price differential for crude oil catalytic cracking increased by 12.5% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 1374 RMB/ton [5]. - The price differential for PX-Nafta increased by 7.6% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a positive trend for certain segments [6]. Company Performance Forecasts - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) is projected to have a net profit of 27 billion RMB in Q4 2025, a decrease of 16% year-on-year [3]. - Sinopec is expected to face significant impairment pressures, with a projected net profit of only 500 million RMB, down 92% year-on-year [3]. - The report forecasts a net profit of 14 billion RMB for Satellite Chemical, reflecting a 41% decline year-on-year but a 38% increase quarter-on-quarter [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co., and bottle-grade PET producers like Wankai New Materials [3]. - It suggests monitoring large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in cost structures [3]. - The report also highlights the potential of offshore oil service companies, recommending firms like CNOOC Services and Offshore Oil Engineering for their strong performance outlook [3].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 10 日 金属价格强势突破，有色板块景气 持续 看好 ——有色金属行业 2025Q4 业绩前瞻 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 有色金属 - ⚫ 贵金属： 1 月美联储议息会议维持联邦基金利率目标区间在 3.50%-3.75%，鲍威尔表示通胀的上行风险 和就业的下行风险都已减弱；没有太多数据表明外国投资者正在对其美元资产进行大规模对冲。特朗普 30 日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一提名还需 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly on companies like Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD, and Great Wall Motors, driven by technological advancements and new product cycles [2]. Core Insights - The automotive market is experiencing a shift towards new technologies, with a focus on AI and smart vehicles, which is expected to drive growth in 2026 [2]. - The report highlights the importance of overseas market opportunities for companies like BYD and Geely, especially in light of domestic cost pressures [2]. - The report notes a significant decline in retail sales in January, with a year-on-year decrease of 22% and a month-on-month decrease of 31% [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential of the robot industry and the valuation flexibility within the supply chain, particularly with Tesla's Optimus V3 [2]. - The report identifies key players in the smart vehicle sector, including companies like Desay SV, Jingwei Hirain, and Bertel, which are expected to benefit from the growth in intelligent vehicles [2]. Industry Updates - The report indicates that the average daily retail sales of passenger vehicles in China were 50,000 units in the second week of January, marking a 22% decline compared to the same period last year [2]. - The report mentions a decrease in raw material prices for both traditional and new energy vehicles, with traditional vehicle raw material prices down by 2.8% week-on-week and 1.0% month-on-month, while new energy vehicle raw material prices fell by 6.7% week-on-week and 2.7% month-on-month [2]. - The total transaction value in the automotive industry for the week was 530.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 22.58% decrease compared to the previous week [2]. - The automotive industry index rose by 0.32% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 1.33% [10]. Monthly Sales Updates - In January 2026, the sales of new energy vehicle companies showed a mixed trend, with BYD's sales at 210,510 units, down 30% year-on-year, while companies like Zeekr and NIO reported significant increases in sales [6][8]. - The report provides a detailed breakdown of sales figures for various new energy vehicle brands, highlighting the overall market contraction of 8% year-on-year and a 45% month-on-month decline [6][8]. Key Models Announced - The report lists several notable new vehicle models announced in the latest batch of vehicle approvals, including the Li Auto L9 Livis, Xpeng GX, and BYD Tang EV, among others [3][4][5].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes that China's consumption market potential lies not only in income growth but also in the effective release of consumption scenarios and time, with current policies addressing constraints in holiday optimization and work time regulations [3] - The evolution of consumption patterns in the U.S., Japan, and China shows a clear transition from "survival" to "experience" consumption, with China's service consumption significantly lower than that of developed countries [3][10] - The report identifies three core variables driving consumption changes: economic development stage, demographic shifts, and technological innovation, highlighting the structural transformation of consumer preferences in China [3][12] Group 2: Historical Consumption Evolution - The U.S. consumption history from the 1970s to the present reflects a shift from practical consumption during crises to brand-driven consumption, rational consumption, and experience-oriented consumption, culminating in technology-enabled and social consumption [10][11] - Japan's consumption evolution post-World War II transitioned from durable goods to quality and luxury consumption, followed by a rational return and the emergence of the "silver economy" due to aging demographics [18][20] - China's consumption history since 1978 has progressed from policy-driven practical consumption to brand consumption, and now to a blend of rational and self-indulgent consumption, with a notable rise of domestic brands [23] Group 3: Current Market Analysis - The A-share consumption sector has seen significant price adjustments, with stock prices declining by 40%-70% since 2021, indicating a potential for long-term investment opportunities as market sentiment begins to recover [3][6] - The report suggests that the consumption sector is currently undervalued, with low profitability and low holdings, presenting a significant expectation gap compared to the technology sector [3][6] - Service consumption is highlighted as a key area for alpha returns, with structural highlights in sectors such as cultural tourism, sports, emotional value, and beauty, indicating a potential for independent alpha performance among core companies in these fields [3][6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [7]. Core Insights - The demand for AI PCB drill bits is expected to surge due to accelerated capital expenditures in AI computing, alongside technological innovations driven by upgrades in PCB materials [2]. - The global PCB drill bit market is dominated by leading companies, with DingTai High-Tech holding a 28.9% market share, producing 500 million units, and benefiting from scale effects amid a supply shortage [2][3]. - The report highlights the strategic acquisitions and expansions of companies like Minbao Optoelectronics and Xiamen Maida, which are enhancing their production capabilities and technological advancements in the PCB drill bit sector [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the recent acquisition by Minbao Optoelectronics of a 100% stake in Xiamen Maida, which specializes in the production of tungsten steel micro-drills for PCB applications, indicating a consolidation trend in the industry [1]. - The report emphasizes the increasing complexity of PCB manufacturing processes, which necessitates higher performance drill bits, leading to a significant increase in demand [2]. Key Companies - **DingTai High-Tech**: The company leads the global PCB drill bit market with a production volume of 500 million units and a market share of 28.9%. It is well-positioned to benefit from the demand surge due to its scale and in-house manufacturing capabilities [2][3]. - **Zhongtung High-Tech**: Focuses on high-end PCB drill bits, with plans to expand production capacity significantly in the coming years, aiming for a monthly output of 50 million units [2]. - **World**: The company is advancing its diamond micro-drill technology for PCB and semiconductor applications, with promising internal validation results for high-precision drilling [2]. Financial Projections - Financial forecasts for key companies indicate robust growth, with DingTai High-Tech projected to achieve a net profit of 686 million yuan in 2026, while Zhongtung High-Tech is expected to reach 1.895 billion yuan [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, highlighting the potential for growth driven by technological advancements and market dynamics [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of new vehicle announcements and the upcoming Q1-Q2 product cycles, particularly for companies like Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD, Great Wall Motors, and others, driven by enhanced product capabilities due to new technologies [2]. - Tesla's AI transformation is noted as a significant market expectation, with a focus on the valuation flexibility within the robotics supply chain [2]. - The report identifies smart technology as a key growth area for the year, with expectations for Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology to gain traction in China, benefiting companies like Desay SV, Jingwei Hirain, and others [2]. - Domestic cost pressures are acknowledged, leading to a cautious stance on annual profit forecasts, while overseas export opportunities for companies like BYD and Geely are viewed positively [2]. Industry Updates - According to the China Passenger Car Association, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the first week of January were 50,000 units, representing a 22% year-on-year decline and a 31% month-on-month decline [2]. - Recent weeks have seen a decrease in traditional and new energy raw material price indices, with traditional vehicle raw material prices down by 2.8% week-on-week and 1.0% month-on-month, and new energy vehicle raw material prices down by 6.7% week-on-week and 2.7% month-on-month [2]. - The total transaction value in the automotive sector for the week was 530.697 billion yuan, a 22.58% decrease from the previous week, while the automotive industry index rose by 0.32% [2][11]. Market Situation - The automotive industry index closed at 8023.01 points, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.33% [11]. - A total of 141 automotive stocks rose, while 127 fell, with the largest gainers being Kailong High-Tech, Xingmin Zhitong, and Yinlun, which saw increases of 72.8%, 21.3%, and 17.1% respectively [16]. - Key events included the release of the 404th batch of new vehicle approvals by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which included several notable models from various manufacturers [3][4]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on companies that are leveraging AI and smart technology, particularly new entrants like Xpeng and NIO, as well as established players with overseas business support like BYD and Geely [2]. - It highlights the potential for significant changes driven by state-owned enterprise reforms, with attention on SAIC and Dongfeng [2]. - In the components sector, companies involved in robotics and data center cooling are expected to transition from thematic investments to industry trends, with a focus on firms with strong performance and valuation potential [2].

Investment Rating - The report rates the PCB drill needle industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The demand for AI PCB drill needles is expected to surge due to accelerated capital expenditure in AI computing and advancements in PCB materials, leading to increased prices and volumes [3]. - Major players like DingTai High-Tech and ZhongTung High-Tech are positioned to benefit significantly from the demand explosion driven by technological upgrades and market dynamics [3]. - The report highlights the strategic acquisitions and expansions by companies such as MinBiao Optoelectronics and XiaZhi Precision, which are enhancing their production capabilities and market presence [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the acquisition of 49% and 51% stakes in XiaZhi Precision by MinBiao Optoelectronics, aiming for full control to enhance its capabilities in PCB, FPC, and AI PCB drill needle production [1]. - The report emphasizes the increasing complexity in PCB manufacturing, particularly with the introduction of new materials like M9, which raises the demand for high-performance drill needles [3]. Key Companies - **DingTai High-Tech**: Leads global PCB drill needle sales with a market share of 28.9%, benefiting from scale effects and self-manufactured equipment [3]. - **ZhongTung High-Tech**: Focuses on high-end products, with plans to increase production capacity significantly in the coming years [3]. - **Wald**: Making advancements in diamond micro-drill technology for PCB and semiconductor applications, with a strong focus on thermal management solutions [3]. - **XiaZhi Precision**: Established in 1995, the company has a strong technical foundation and is planning to expand its production capacity to meet growing demand [3]. Financial Projections - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, projecting significant growth in net profits and market capitalization from 2024 to 2027 for DingTai High-Tech and ZhongTung High-Tech [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty sector, indicating strong performance compared to the market [2][3]. Core Insights - Estee Lauder reported a double-digit growth in China, with net sales reaching RMB 29.35 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and profits improving by 127% to RMB 1.12 billion [2][6]. - The Tmall beauty category saw a significant increase of 24% year-on-year in January 2026, indicating a strong start to the year for the beauty market [2][25]. - The report highlights the government's focus on promoting service consumption, which is expected to drive growth in key sectors, including beauty and personal care [7][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector outperformed the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index rising by 3.7% from January 30 to February 6, 2026 [3]. - The top-performing stocks in the sector included Betaini (+13.5%), Huaxi Biological (+12.0%), and Beijia Clean (+10.8%) [3]. Company Performance - Estee Lauder's sales in mainland China surged by 13% to RMB 6.44 billion, confirming the recovery of international beauty brands in the Chinese market [2][6]. - The report notes that the overall retail sales of cosmetics in December 2025 grew by 8.8%, with a total retail sales of RMB 465.3 billion for the year, reflecting a steady recovery in consumer spending [18][19]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the shift in consumer focus towards personalized and high-quality services, with emotional and experiential services becoming new consumption hotspots [8][10]. - The government is implementing measures to stimulate service consumption, which is expected to play a crucial role in driving economic growth [7][8]. E-commerce Insights - The report discusses the acquisition of Beijing Lianshi by Yiwang Yichuang, which aims to enhance AI-driven marketing capabilities, indicating a trend towards digital transformation in the industry [12][13]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the e-commerce sector, with domestic brands gaining market share against international competitors [26].

Market Overview - In January 2026, global funds saw a significant outflow from emerging markets, with China experiencing a notable decline in fund allocation[3] - The Brent crude oil price increased by 14.6%, while industrial and precious metals saw substantial gains, with LME nickel, copper, and aluminum rising over 10%[3] - The U.S. equity market attracted $44.9 billion, while non-U.S. equity markets only saw an inflow of $2.3 billion during the same period[12] Fund Flows - China’s equity market experienced an outflow of $96.2 billion in January, while the fixed income market saw a $17 billion outflow[25] - Active funds contributed $2.1 billion to the Chinese equity market, whereas passive funds saw a significant outflow of $98.2 billion[22] - The relative outflow ratios for Chinese fixed income and equity funds reached 11.0% and 7.2%, respectively, indicating a higher outflow compared to other major markets[22] Global Asset Allocation - As of December 2025, the global allocation to U.S. equities slightly decreased to 61.2%, while the allocation to Chinese equities was at a historical low of 31.5%[3] - Emerging markets reduced their allocation to Chinese equities, with the current allocation ratio at 37.7%, reflecting a downward trend[3] Risk Factors - Short-term asset price fluctuations may not accurately represent long-term trends, and potential economic downturns in Europe and the U.S. could impact market stability[3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the cosmetics and medical beauty sector, with strong performance compared to the market [2][3]. Core Insights - Estee Lauder reported double-digit growth in China, with net sales reaching RMB 29.35 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and profits improving by 127% to RMB 1.12 billion [8][26]. - The Tmall beauty category saw a significant increase of 24% year-on-year in January 2026, indicating strong consumer demand and confidence in the market [8][29]. - The report highlights the government's focus on promoting service consumption, which is expected to drive growth in key sectors, including beauty and personal care [9][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector outperformed the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index rising by 3.7% from January 30 to February 6, 2026 [3]. - The Shenwan Cosmetics Index increased by 2.8%, outperforming the Shenwan A Index by 4.4 percentage points [3]. Company Highlights - Estee Lauder's sales in mainland China surged by 13% to RMB 6.44 billion, confirming the recovery of international beauty brands in the Chinese market [8][26]. - The report notes that the top-performing stocks in the sector included Betaini (+13.5%), Huaxi Biological (+12.0%), and Beijia Clean (+10.8%) [4]. E-commerce Insights - The report provides data on the performance of domestic brands on platforms like Douyin and Tmall, showing significant growth in GMV for several brands [20]. - For instance, the brand "毛戈平" saw a GMV increase of 298% in December 2025 [21]. Market Trends - The overall retail sales of cosmetics in December 2025 grew by 8.8%, with a total retail sales figure of RMB 465.3 billion for the year, reflecting a steady recovery in consumer spending [22][23]. - The report emphasizes the shift in consumer preferences towards personalized and high-quality products, indicating a strategic opportunity for brands to innovate [10][11].