Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the Black-Scholes (BS) model as a foundational option pricing model, despite its limitations in practical applications [6][7][8] - It highlights the advantages of using Monte Carlo simulation for pricing convertible bonds, particularly in accounting for complex features such as redemption and down-round clauses [34][41] - The report discusses the relationship between implied volatility and actual bond pricing, suggesting that discrepancies can indicate market conditions [20][25][26] Group 1: BS Model and Its Applications - The BS model is a fundamental option pricing model that assumes stock prices follow a geometric Brownian motion, which is crucial for understanding option pricing [6][9] - The report outlines the application of the BS model in calculating implied volatility, theoretical pricing, and Greek letters, which are essential for assessing convertible bonds [20][31] - It notes that the BS model's limitations include its inability to account for certain bond features, leading to potential overvaluation or undervaluation of convertible bonds [26][18] Group 2: Monte Carlo Simulation - Monte Carlo simulation is presented as a method that can effectively incorporate the impact of bond features on pricing, contrasting with the BS model's separation of bond value and option value [34][41] - The report details the steps involved in Monte Carlo simulation, including generating random stock price paths and evaluating cash flows based on bond features [34][37] - It concludes that while Monte Carlo simulation may require more computational resources, it often yields more accurate pricing results compared to the BS model, especially in bear markets [41][46] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The report suggests constructing investment strategies based on the pricing discrepancies identified through BS and Monte Carlo simulations, focusing on undervalued convertible bonds [34][41] - It emphasizes the importance of Greek letters in developing investment strategies, as they provide insights into the sensitivity of bond prices to various factors [31][32] - The report indicates that strategies based on BS pricing deviations and Monte Carlo simulations have historically outperformed traditional low-price strategies [41][49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Market liquidity continues to improve, but attention should be paid to the selling pressure brought by concentrated share unlocks. The market showed a mixed trend this week, with the first three days in adjustment and the last two days in recovery. There was sector differentiation, with data centers and environmental protection and water services leading the gains, while consumption and affordable housing sectors led the losses. As it is the window period for the third - quarter reports (expected to be released next week), market trading activity is increasing. However, the pressure of strategic placement share unlocks in REITs needs to be watched. On October 29th, 46% of the shares of Huatai Baowan Logistics REIT will be unlocked (approximately 603 million yuan), and about 7.5 billion yuan worth of shares are expected to be unlocked in November (a total of 5 REITs, with the unlocked share ratio ranging from 18.1% to 55.8%), which may bring certain selling pressure. [3] - As of October 24, 2025, 18 new public REITs have been successfully issued this year, with a total issuance scale of 36.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 24.2%. Two new public REITs made progress this week, with the establishment of CITIC Construction Investment Shenyang International Software Park REIT and Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial REIT. [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First - level Market: Two New Public REITs Made Progress - This year, 18 public REITs have been successfully issued (6 in Q1, 4 in Q2, 6 in Q3, and 2 in October), with a total issuance scale of 36.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 24.2%. Two new public REITs, CITIC Construction Investment Shenyang International Software Park REIT and Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial REIT, were established this week. [4] - As of October 24, 2025, in the current approval process, there are 10 newly - applied REITs, 3 of which have been queried and responded, 3 have passed the review, and 3 are registered and awaiting listing. For expansion, 5 have been applied, 3 have been queried and responded, and 2 have passed the review. [4] 3.2 Second - level Market: Liquidity Increased This Week 3.2.1 Market Review: The CSI REITs Total Return Index Fell 0.16% - The CSI REITs Total Return Index (932047.CSI) closed at 1045.13 points this week, with a decline of 0.16%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.08 percentage points and the CSI Dividend by 0.89 percentage points. The year - to - date increase of the CSI REITs Total Return Index is 7.98%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 10.46 percentage points and outperforming the CSI Dividend by 6.66 percentage points. [4] - By project attribute, property - type REITs fell 0.13%, while franchise - type REITs rose 0.46%. By asset type, data centers (+1.40%), environmental protection and water services (+1.32%), transportation (+0.47%), and warehousing and logistics (+0.36%) sectors performed well. [4] 3.2.2 Liquidity: Both Turnover Rate and Trading Volume Increased - The average daily turnover rates of property - type and franchise - type REITs this week were 0.53% and 0.47% respectively, an increase of 13.70 and 11.36 basis points compared to last week. The trading volumes this week were 496 million and 134 million shares respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 35.73% and 31.88%. The data center sector had the highest activity. [4] 3.2.3 Valuation: The Affordable Housing Sector Had a Higher Valuation - From the perspective of ChinaBond valuation yields, the yields of property - type and franchise - type REITs were 3.93% and 4.07% respectively. The warehousing and logistics (5.40%), transportation (4.93%), and park (4.48%) sectors ranked among the top three. [4] 3.3 This Week's News and Important Announcements - **News**: On October 22nd, Shenghao Group initiated the issuance of communication tower infrastructure public REITs, and companies such as China Merchants Fund had in - depth discussions on including communication towers as a new asset type in the REITs pilot scope. On October 23rd, the Guangzhou government supported the issuance of REITs for eligible consumption and cultural tourism projects; the Qingcheng Mountain - Dujiangyan Scenic Area launched the selection of asset appraisal institutions for its REITs; the Putuo District government approved the public REITs project of Zhoushan International Aquatic City; Hunan Province solicited opinions on promoting the issuance of REITs for urban renewal projects. [34] - **Announcements**: Several REITs released their September operation data, including China Merchants Expressway REIT, Huatai Jiangsu Expressway REIT, etc. Huatai Baowan Logistics REIT and CICC Liandong Science and Technology Innovation REIT announced share unlocks. [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiangsu Jinzu (600901) [2] Core Views - The company's performance for the first nine months of 2025 met expectations, with operating income reaching 4.638 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.15%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 2.446 billion yuan, up 9.82% year-on-year [5][8] - The company has shown steady growth in interest-earning assets and a significant increase in bond payables, with total assets reaching 162 billion yuan, an 18% increase from the previous year [8] - Asset quality is improving, with a non-performing financing lease asset ratio of 0.90%, down 1 basis point from the previous year [8] - The net interest margin for the leasing business reached 3.75%, an increase of 8 basis points year-on-year [8] - The company has implemented a mid-term dividend policy, with a payout ratio of 48% and a dividend yield of 2.16% [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts operating income for 2025 to be 5.891 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.6% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 3.234 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.56 yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.9% [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping sector, highlighting a shift from expectation-driven to reality-driven stock price movements, with sufficient safety margins around current valuations [5][6]. Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a historical opportunity as three negative factors (policy, exchange rates, and ship prices) have reversed to positively impact the market. The Clarksons second-hand ship price index is steadily breaking through 2024 highs, indicating an approaching inflection point for new ship prices [5][6]. - The report recommends specific companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy, while also suggesting to monitor Haitong Development and Pacific Shipping [5]. - The report emphasizes the potential for significant upward revisions in global oil shipping profitability forecasts and reset costs, with current charter rates around $50,000 per day expected to rise [5][6]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Overview - VLCC rates stabilized at high levels around $80,000 per day, despite an 8% week-on-week decline to $78,862 per day. The overall market remains calm, with charterers attempting to suppress rates through private deals [5][6]. - The report notes a 5% week-on-week decline in Suezmax rates to $65,724 per day, while Aframax rates increased by 14% to $56,567 per day, indicating mixed market conditions [5][6]. Air Transportation - The report highlights unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain, with an aging global fleet expected to constrain supply over the next 5-10 years. This situation is anticipated to lead to significant improvements in airline profitability as demand for international flights increases [5][6]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined: price stabilization leading to profit recovery, continued competitive pressure in certain regions, and potential for higher-level mergers and acquisitions [5][6]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volume and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with national railway freight reaching 80.32 million tons, a 2.33% week-on-week increase, and highway truck traffic increasing by 24.72% [5][6]. High Dividend Stocks in Transportation - The report lists high dividend stocks in the transportation sector, including Bohai Ferry with a dividend yield of 8.09% and Zhonggu Logistics at 10.88%, indicating strong potential for income generation [5][6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Market liquidity continues to improve, but attention should be paid to the selling pressure brought by concentrated share unlocks. The market was volatile this week, with the first three days in adjustment and the last two days in rebound. The data center and environmental protection water sectors led the gains, while the consumption and affordable housing sectors led the losses. The market trading activity is increasing during the third - quarter report window period, but the unlocking pressure of strategic allocation shares of REITs needs attention. On October 29, 46% of the shares of Huatai Baowan Logistics REIT will be unlocked (about 603 million yuan), and about 7.5 billion yuan of shares are expected to be unlocked in November [3]. - As of October 24, 2025, 18 new public REITs have been successfully issued this year, with a total issuance scale of 36.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 24.2%. Two new public REITs achieved new progress this week. The CSI REITs Total Return Index closed at 1045.13 points, up 0.16% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.08 percentage points and the CSI Dividend by 0.89 percentage points [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market: Two Newly Issued Public REITs Achieved New Progress - This year, 18 public REITs have been successfully issued, with a total issuance scale of 36.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 24.2%. Two newly issued public REITs, CITIC Construction Investment Shenyang International Software Park REIT and China Asset Management China Overseas Commercial REIT, have been established. There are currently 10 newly issued REITs under application, 3 have been questioned and responded, 3 have passed the review, and 3 have been registered and are waiting for listing. For the expansion, 5 have been applied, 3 have been questioned and responded, and 2 have passed the review [4][15]. 2. Secondary Market: Liquidity Continued to Improve This Week 2.1 Market Review: The CSI REITs Total Return Index Fell 0.16% - The CSI REITs Total Return Index closed at 1045.13 points, up 0.16% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.08 percentage points and the CSI Dividend by 0.89 percentage points. Year - to - date, it has risen 7.98%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 10.46 percentage points and outperforming the CSI Dividend by 6.66 percentage points. This week, equity - based REITs fell 0.13%, while concession - based REITs rose 0.46%. In terms of asset types, the data center, environmental protection water, transportation, and warehousing logistics sectors performed well [4]. 2.2 Liquidity: Both Turnover Rate and Trading Volume Increased - The average daily turnover rates of equity - based and concession - based REITs this week were 0.53% and 0.47% respectively, an increase of 13.70BP and 11.36BP compared to last week. The trading volumes were 496 million and 134 million shares respectively, a week - on - week increase of 35.73% and 31.88%. The data center sector was the most active [4][24]. 2.3 Valuation: The Affordable Housing Sector Had a Higher Valuation - The ChinaBond valuation yields of equity - based and concession - based REITs were 3.93% and 4.07% respectively. The warehousing logistics, transportation, and park sectors ranked among the top in terms of valuation [4][29]. 3. This Week's News and Important Announcements News - On October 22, Shenghao Group launched the issuance of communication tower infrastructure public REITs, and companies such as China Merchants Fund conducted in - depth discussions. On October 23, Guangzhou supported the issuance of REITs in the consumption and cultural tourism fields; Qingcheng Mountain - Dujiangyan Scenic Area REITs launched the selection of asset evaluation institutions; Zhoushan International Aquatic City's public REITs project passed the review; Hunan Province solicited opinions on promoting the issuance of REITs for urban renewal projects [32]. Announcements - Multiple REITs released operation data and share unlock announcements. For example, China Merchants Expressway REIT's daily average toll - paying traffic volume in September 2025 was 16,000 vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 3.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.2%. Huatai Baowan Logistics REIT's 138 million strategic allocation shares will be unlocked on October 29 [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 11.6 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 9.1 billion yuan, up 51% year-on-year [7] - The third quarter of 2025 saw a total revenue of 4.73 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 101% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40% [7] - The report highlights a significant increase in trading activity and new fund issuance, benefiting the company's brokerage and fund distribution businesses [9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 14.17 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22.12% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 11.42 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting an 18.82% year-on-year increase [8] - The report indicates an upward revision of profit forecasts due to improved market conditions, with net profits projected at 11.42 billion yuan for 2025, 12.40 billion yuan for 2026, and 12.47 billion yuan for 2027 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q3 2025, achieving record high quarterly results driven by proprietary trading, with a revenue of 228 billion yuan, up 56% year-on-year and 49% quarter-on-quarter [5] - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 558 billion yuan, representing a 33% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 232 billion yuan, up 38% year-on-year [5] - The report highlights a significant improvement in the company's return on equity (ROE), which reached 8.15%, an increase of 1.85 percentage points year-on-year [5] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 84,603 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 32.63% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 31,330 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44.35% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.07 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.43 [6] Business Performance Breakdown - The brokerage segment generated 109.4 billion yuan in revenue, a 53% increase year-on-year, while investment banking and asset management also saw double-digit growth [7] - The company's total assets reached 2.03 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, an 18% increase from the previous year, with client funds growing by 31% [7] - The investment income for Q3 2025 was 122 billion yuan, marking a 47% year-on-year increase [7] Market Position and Competitive Analysis - The company maintained a leading position in the refinancing and bond underwriting markets, with a market share of 22.9% and 13.8% respectively [7] - The report notes that the company's market share in margin financing reached 8.06%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous year [7] - The asset management segment saw significant growth, with the company's fund management arm, Huaxia Fund, achieving a net profit of 8.66 billion yuan, contributing 2.3 billion yuan to the company's profits [7] Investment Analysis Opinion - The report raises the profit forecast for the company, expecting net profits of 313 billion yuan, 338 billion yuan, and 374 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 8%, and 11% [7]

Report Title - Which Active Equity Funds are Suitable for Core Portfolio Allocation? - Weekly Insights on Financial Products 20251025 [1] Core Viewpoints - From the allocation needs of core funds, the report sets the characteristics that core funds should possess, aiming to provide basic excess returns, improve the holding experience, and effectively respond to the volatile market environment. It proposes three strategies to find suitable core funds: high win - rate relative to the equity - focused fund index, good holding experience, and wide distribution of the ability circle [3]. Summary by Sections Strategy 1: High Win - Rate Relative to the Equity - Focused Fund Index (Active & Quantitative) - **Difficulty of Outperforming the Index**: It is not easy for active equity funds to outperform the equity - focused fund index (885001) in the long term. Only 2 products (Huashang New Trend Optimization, Anxin Advantage Growth) have outperformed 885001 every year in the past 10 years. The proportion of products that outperform 885001 in different time intervals is shown in relevant tables [3][10][12]. - **Investment Style Analysis of Anxin Advantage Growth**: Since being managed by Nie Shilin, it has outperformed 885001 every year. The product has a balanced and flexible industry distribution, with a certain proportion of allocation in multiple major active equity sectors, and the industry distribution is flexibly adjusted. It has relatively concentrated holdings to obtain excess returns through concentrated stock selection [15]. - **Excess Return Analysis**: In terms of the relationship between annualized excess and annualized tracking error, for funds with a tracking error within 10%, 8 products have an annualized excess of over 10%; for those within 8%, 1 product has an annualized excess of over 8%. Only 63 products (2.69% of the total) can generate excess returns in both rising and falling environments of 885001 [20]. - **Selection of High - Win - Rate Funds**: 20 active equity funds are selected based on positive cumulative excess returns in both rising and falling daily environments of 885001 in the past five years and ranked by information ratio. Some products have their current fund managers managing them for a full five - year period, and some products have high quarterly and annual win - rates [23]. - **Screening Framework and List**: The report screens high - win - rate active equity funds by calculating four indicators, setting time intervals, and eliminating certain types of funds. The final list includes more balanced funds like Bodao Shengyan and funds with greater elasticity like Huaxia Innovation Frontier [26][27] Strategy 2: Good Holding Experience (Low Volatility & High Sharpe Ratio) - **Characteristics of Funds with Good Holding Experience**: These funds are close to the efficient frontier (low volatility and outstanding long - term performance) and have a high number of record - high days. Some examples are given according to different quantile criteria [46]. - **Screening Process and Results**: The report screens funds by calculating two indicators, eliminating certain types of funds, and finally selects 30 funds with better comprehensive capabilities. Representative products selected over the past three years and two years are also provided [48] Strategy 3: Wide Distribution of the Ability Circle (Individual Ability vs. Platform System) - **Requirement of the Ability Circle**: To effectively respond to the volatile market environment, fund managers need a wide ability circle, with both the ability to allocate in multiple tracks and the ability to select stocks deeply within tracks [3] - **Analysis of Fund Managers' Investment Styles**: The investment styles of several fund managers such as Zhou Yun, Hu Song, Chen Wen, Qiao Qian, and Zhang Jiansheng are analyzed, including their investment concepts, stock - selection methods, and portfolio adjustment strategies [30]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or the company Core Insights - Himalaya Natural Technology has established itself as a leading domestic beauty brand in China, with its flagship brand "Naturally" recognized for its high consumer acceptance and brand value [4] - The company's revenue has shown steady growth, with a notable increase in online sales channels, contributing significantly to overall revenue [4][26] - The skincare segment remains the largest category in the beauty market, with a projected market size of 3,826 billion yuan in 2024, representing 40.9% of the total cosmetics market [4][65] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Himalaya Natural Technology, founded in 2001, has launched multiple brands including "Naturally" and "MAYSU," focusing on natural technology and anti-aging products [4][7] - The company has undergone significant growth phases, expanding its brand portfolio and market presence [7][8] Financial Analysis - The company's overall revenue increased from 4.292 billion yuan in 2022 to approximately 4.601 billion yuan in 2024, with skincare business dominating revenue contributions [4][26] - Net profit has fluctuated, with figures of 147 million yuan in 2022 and 191 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a net profit margin increase [4][57] Industry Analysis - The cosmetics market in China is projected to reach 9,346 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7% from 2019 to 2024 [4][61] - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with the domestic cosmetics market expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.9% from 2019 to 2024 [4][62] - Skincare products are the largest segment, with a market size expected to reach 3,826 billion yuan in 2024, growing at a CAGR of 4.7% [4][65] Competitive Landscape - The company has established a multi-brand strategy centered around "Naturally," which contributes over 94% of total revenue [4][81] - The competitive landscape shows that domestic brands are successfully capturing market share from international brands, with "Naturally" being one of the top domestic brands [4][71][78]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The company's performance is in line with expectations, benefiting from the latest port fee policy in shipbuilding, while the elasticity of the diesel generator business is underestimated [1][6] - The company reported a revenue of 87.423 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.104 billion yuan, up 10.0% year-on-year [6] - The shipbuilding sector is entering a profit release phase, aided by a new port fee policy that exempts ships built in China from certain fees, which is expected to boost shipbuilding orders returning to China [6] - The diesel generator business is highlighted for its ongoing demand, particularly in the AIDC sector, with significant market potential driven by the growth in AI computing power [6] - The company's diversified operations and global layout provide stability against market fluctuations, with a balanced trade structure reducing vulnerability to changes in trade policies [6] - The projected dividend yield for 2025 is approximately 4.2%, supported by a payout ratio of 42% [6] - The profit forecasts for 2025E-2027E are 1.349 billion, 1.478 billion, and 1.609 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 10, 9, and 8 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025E is estimated at 115.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025E is projected to be 1.349 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.5% [2] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 6.4% in 2025Q1-3 to 7.4% in 2025E [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 16.2% for 2025E [2]