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计算机行业周报 20251020-20251024:DeepSeek OCR 提供新思路!量子计算中美多热点解读!-20251025
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-25 14:05
Investment Rating - The report rates the computer industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector relative to the overall market performance [6][41]. Core Insights - DeepSeek OCR has introduced innovative optical context compression, achieving a compression ratio of less than 10 times while maintaining a decoding accuracy of 97% [6][10]. - Quantum computing is identified as a critical area of global technological competition, with significant investments and advancements occurring across various countries [17][22]. - Key companies such as Tonghuashun and iFlytek have reported better-than-expected earnings, indicating strong performance in the sector [32][34]. Summary by Sections DeepSeek OCR - DeepSeek OCR has launched a new model that addresses the computational challenges of processing long texts by using optical compression techniques [8]. - The model's architecture includes a DeepEncoder and a DeepSeek-3B-MoE decoder, which significantly enhance processing efficiency and reduce hardware requirements [12][15]. - The application of this technology is expected to impact various industries, including finance, healthcare, and education, by enabling efficient processing of extensive documents [16]. Quantum Computing - The report highlights the global race in quantum computing, with countries like the US and China making substantial investments to advance their capabilities [17][22]. - A table outlines various national investment plans in quantum technology, showcasing the competitive landscape [18]. - The report notes that while quantum computing is not yet commercially viable on a large scale, ongoing support and technological advancements present potential investment opportunities [31]. Key Company Updates - Tonghuashun reported a revenue of 3.26 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.7%, with net profit rising by 85.3% [32]. - iFlytek's Q3 revenue reached 6.08 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.02% increase, while net profit surged by 202.4% [34]. - Both companies demonstrate strong cash flow and profitability, indicating robust operational performance and growth potential [33][34].
申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/10/20-25/10/25):“十五五”规划:优化中国经济转型的实现路径
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-25 13:43
Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" optimizes the path for China's economic transformation, enhancing long-term market expectations and making them easier to develop [3][5][8] - Clear recognition of China's advantages includes the "socialist system advantage," "super-large market advantage," "complete industrial system advantage," and "rich talent resource advantage" [3][5][6] - The importance of external circulation for China's economic transformation has been further confirmed, emphasizing a "high-level opening up" strategy [6][7] Group 2 - Internal circulation governance optimization is focused on increasing the resident consumption rate and optimizing resource allocation [7][8] - Future regional industrial layouts may show significant differentiation, allowing for targeted talent strategies and urbanization efforts [8] - The internal governance approach aims to enhance total factor productivity through technological advancements [8] Group 3 - Short-term market judgment remains that technology growth adjustments are nearing completion, with expectations for technology to lead the market in Q4 2025 [9][10] - The structural characteristics of the A-share market in the five-year planning year highlight AI, robotics, and semiconductors as key directions [11][12] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" presents opportunities in emerging industries and future industries, including new energy, quantum technology, and integrated circuits [12]
转债周度跟踪 20251024:负债端回暖,关注新一轮行情启动-20251025
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-25 13:22
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy support has significantly boosted the equity and convertible bond markets. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind Micro - cap Stock Index have reached new phased highs, but the style rotation is fast, with the technology and dividend sectors taking turns. Amid the intertwining of Sino - US tariff issues and domestic policy expectations, the equity market is highly volatile, but its downside risk is generally controllable. The convertible bond market is trending optimistically. In the short term, the impetus for the convertible bond market comes from the liability side, with the return of net inflows into convertible bond ETFs and the potential increased demand from the upcoming stock - bond constant ETFs. After a period of retracement and consolidation, a new round of market upswing is expected to start. [3][5] Section Summaries 1. Weekly Outlook - Policy support has strongly influenced the equity and convertible bond markets. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind Micro - cap Stock Index have hit new phased highs. The equity market is highly volatile due to Sino - US tariff and domestic policy expectations, but its downside risk is controllable. The convertible bond market is optimistic, and its short - term momentum comes from the liability side, such as the return of net inflows into convertible bond ETFs and potential demand from stock - bond constant ETFs. [3][5] 2. Convertible Bond Valuation - During the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, risk appetite was resilient, and the 100 - yuan valuation rose to around 36%. High - rated large - cap convertible bonds showed stronger valuation performance. The overall market's 100 - yuan premium rate was 35.7%, up 0.6% from the previous week, and its percentile since 2017 was 93.9%. High - rated convertible bonds had a larger increase in valuation than low - rated ones. - The conversion premium rate and the bottom - line premium rate increased across most parity ranges. The low - parity range below 80 yuan and the 110 - 120 yuan parity range showed relatively strong valuation performance, while the high - parity range above 140 yuan saw a slight decline. - The median price of convertible bonds was 131.80 yuan, up 2.07 yuan from the previous week, and the yield to maturity was - 6.47%, down 0.01%. Their percentile levels since 2017 were 99.20 and 0.60 respectively. [4][6][10] 3. Clause Statistics 3.1 Redemption - This week, Tongcheng Convertible Bond announced redemption, while Fuchun, Youfa, and Zhonghuan Zhuan 2 Convertible Bonds announced non - redemption, with a forced - redemption rate of 25%. There are currently 18 convertible bonds that have announced forced or maturity redemptions but have not yet delisted, with a potential conversion or maturity balance of 4.9 billion yuan. There are 34 convertible bonds currently in the redemption process, and 12 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week. [4][13][16] 3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Lanfan Convertible Bond proposed a downward revision. As of now, 107 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision period, 23 cannot be downward - revised due to net - asset constraints, 2 have triggered the downward - revision condition but the stock price is still below the trigger price and no announcement has been made, 32 are accumulating days for downward revision, and 1 has issued a board - meeting proposal for downward revision but has not yet held a shareholders' meeting. [4][18] 3.3 Put Option - This week, Baocai Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - option announcement. As of now, 2 convertible bonds have issued put - option announcements, and 5 are accumulating days to trigger the put - option. Among them, 1 proposed a downward revision, 1 has triggered the downward - revision condition, 1 is accumulating days for downward revision, and 2 are in the non - downward - revision period. [4][22] 4. Primary Market Issuance - There were no new convertible bond issuances this week. Jin 25, Funeng, and Jinlang Zhuan 02 Convertible Bonds have been issued but not yet listed. Jin 25 Convertible Bond is scheduled to list on October 27, 2025. As of now, there are 7 convertible bonds awaiting registration, with a total issuance scale of 6.7 billion yuan, and 6 awaiting listing - committee approval, with a total issuance scale of 3.6 billion yuan. [4][26] 5. Appendix - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.47% this week. The technology and advanced manufacturing sectors showed significant recovery. Most industries saw gains, with the national defense and military industry, electronics, and computer sectors leading the way. [28][33]
高频经济周报(2025.10.19-2025.10.25):地产市场回落,出口量价齐升-20251025
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-25 13:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the economic situation from October 19 to October 25, 2025, covering aspects such as industrial production, people and goods flow, consumption, investment, exports, and major asset performance. It shows that industrial production is performing well, people flow continues to rise, freight prices increase slightly, car sales growth slows down, prices are differentiated, construction shows good performance while the real - estate market declines, port throughput rises, and shipping indices are differentiated. Major assets present a mixed performance with bonds showing both gains and losses, stocks generally rising, most commodities rising, and foreign currencies generally falling [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Major Assets - This week, bond indices showed mixed performance, stock indices generally rose, most commodities increased, and foreign currencies generally declined. Among bond indices, the AAA and AA+ indices of China Bond corporate bonds rose the most, with a weekly increase of 0.14%, while the 10 - year China Bond treasury bond index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 0.13%. The ChiNext Index rose the most among stock indices, with a weekly increase of 8.05%. Among commodities, the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index rose the most, with a gain of 3.66%, and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell the most, with a decline of 6.69%. Foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest decline of 2.06% and the US dollar depreciating by 0.05% [3]. 3.2. Industrial Production - Production performed well. From the upstream perspective, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 1.30 pcts to 35.80%, and the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.48 pcts to 84.73%, while the crude steel output decreased by 0.89% week - on - week. In the real - estate chain, the operating rate of rebar increased by 1.64 pcts to 42.97%, the operating rate of float glass remained flat at 76.65%, and the mill operating rate increased by 0.38 pcts to 38.27%. In the consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament remained flat at 91.04%, the PTA operating rate increased by 0.42 pcts to 75.98%, and the methanol operating rate decreased by 1.67 pcts to 82.71%. In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires increased by 0.95 pcts to 73.67%, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 1.06 pcts to 65.58% [3]. 3.3. People and Goods Flow - People flow continued to rise, and freight prices increased slightly. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 6.68% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations increased by 1.53%, while the 7DMA of international flight operations decreased by 0.79%. The subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou increased, while that in Shanghai decreased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index increased by 0.01% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [3]. 3.4. Consumption - Car sales growth slowed down, and price performance continued to be differentiated. The previous period's automobile wholesale increased by 1.00% year - on - year, while retail sales decreased by 3.00% year - on - year. Both the 4WMA of wholesale and retail year - on - year growth rates declined. The weekly box office of movies decreased by 39%, and the 7DMA of the number of movie - goers decreased by 41%. Agricultural product prices were differentiated, with pork prices decreasing by 1.66% week - on - week and vegetable prices increasing by 5.65% week - on - week [3]. 3.5. Investment - Construction showed good performance, and the real - estate market declined. The cement inventory ratio increased by 0.2 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.23% week - on - week, and the cement shipping rate increased by 0.6 pcts week - on - week. The rebar inventory decreased by 4.1% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 7.8 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 2.8% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction was good. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 7.3% week - on - week. By city - tier, the transaction area of first - tier cities increased, while those of second - and third - tier cities decreased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities decreased by 4.7% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.2% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate increased week - on - week [3]. 3.6. Exports - Port throughput increased, and shipping indices were differentiated. The weekly port cargo throughput increased by 2.5%, and the container throughput increased by 3.6%. The BDI index decreased by 3.77% week - on - week, while the domestic SCFI and CCFI indices increased by 7.11% and 2.02% week - on - week respectively [3].
计算机行业周报:DeepSeekOCR提供新思路!量子计算中美多热点解读-20251025
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-25 13:07
Investment Rating - The report rates the computer industry as "Overweight" indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [46]. Core Insights - DeepSeek OCR has introduced innovative optical context compression, achieving a compression ratio of less than 10 times while maintaining an accuracy of 97% [6][10]. - Quantum computing is identified as a critical area of global technological competition, with significant investments and advancements occurring across various countries [19][20]. - Key companies such as Tonghuashun and iFlytek have reported better-than-expected earnings, indicating strong performance in the sector [35][38]. Summary by Sections DeepSeek OCR Insights - DeepSeek OCR's new model utilizes optical compression to address the computational challenges faced by LLMs in processing long texts [8]. - The model's architecture includes a DeepEncoder and a DeepSeek-3B-MoE decoder, which significantly enhances processing efficiency while reducing hardware requirements [12][16]. - The application of this technology is expected to have substantial implications across various sectors, including finance, healthcare, and education [18]. Quantum Computing Developments - The report highlights the global race in quantum computing, with countries like the US and China making strategic investments to enhance their capabilities [19][23]. - Various technological routes in quantum computing, such as superconducting and ion trap technologies, are advancing rapidly, with significant breakthroughs reported [26][28]. - The report outlines investment plans from multiple countries, showcasing a strong commitment to developing quantum technologies [20]. Key Company Updates - Tonghuashun reported a revenue of 3.26 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.7%, with net profit rising by 85.3% [35]. - iFlytek's Q3 revenue reached 6.08 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.02% increase, while net profit surged by 202.4% [38]. - Both companies are positioned well for continued growth, supported by strong cash flow and market demand [37][39].
高频经济周报:地产市场回落,出口量价齐升-20251025
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-25 12:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a weekly economic analysis from October 19 - October 25, 2025, covering various aspects including industrial production, personnel and freight flow, consumption, investment, exports, and performance of major asset classes, along with important policies and events [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Major Asset Classes - This week, bond indices showed mixed performance, stock indices generally rose, most commodities increased, and foreign currencies generally fell. Among bond indices, the ChinaBond Corporate Bond AAA and AA+ indices had the highest weekly gains of 0.14%, while the ChinaBond 10 - year Treasury Bond index had the largest weekly decline of 0.13%. The ChiNext index led the stock market with a weekly gain of 8.05%. The Nanhua Energy and Chemicals Index in commodities rose the most, by 3.66%, and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell the most, by 6.69%. Foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest weekly decline of 2.06%, and the US dollar depreciated by 0.05% [1]. 3.2. Industrial Production - Production performed well. In the upstream sector, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate increased by 1.30 pcts to 35.80%, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.48 pcts to 84.73%, and the crude steel output decreased by 0.89%. In the real - estate chain, the rebar operating rate increased by 1.64 pcts to 42.97%, the float glass operating rate remained flat at 76.65%, and the mill operating rate increased by 0.38 pcts to 38.27%. In the consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operating rate remained flat at 91.04%, the PTA operating rate increased by 0.42 pcts to 75.98%, and the methanol operating rate decreased by 1.67 pcts to 82.71%. In the automotive chain, the semi - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.95 pcts to 73.67%, and the full - steel tire operating rate increased by 1.06 pcts to 65.58% [1]. 3.3. Personnel and Freight Flow - Personnel flow continued to rise, and freight prices increased slightly. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 6.68% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations increased by 1.53%, while that of international flights decreased by 0.79%. The subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou increased, while that in Shanghai decreased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index increased by 0.01% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [1]. 3.4. Consumption - The growth rate of automobile sales declined, and price performance continued to diverge. The previous period's automobile wholesale increased by 1.00% year - on - year, while retail sales decreased by 3.00%. Both the 4WMA of the wholesale and retail year - on - year growth rates declined. This period's movie box office decreased by 39% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 41%. Agricultural product prices showed divergence, with pork prices decreasing by 1.66% week - on - week and vegetable prices increasing by 5.65% [1]. 3.5. Investment - Construction showed good performance, while the commercial housing market declined. The cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.2 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.23%, and the cement shipping rate increased by 0.6 pcts. Rebar inventory decreased by 4.1% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 7.8 pcts, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 2.8%. Overall, the terminal demand for construction was good. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 7.3% week - on - week. By city tier, the transaction area in first - tier cities increased, while those in second - and third - tier cities decreased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities decreased by 4.7%, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.2%. The land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate increased week - on - week [1]. 3.6. Exports - Port throughput increased, and shipping indices showed divergence. Port cargo throughput increased by 2.5% week - on - week, and container throughput increased by 3.6%. The BDI index decreased by 3.77% week - on - week, while the domestic SCFI and CCFI indices increased by 7.11% and 2.02% respectively [1]. 3.7. Important Policies/Events - In the third quarter of 2025, the economic growth rate declined; the October LPR quote remained unchanged; a new round of China - US trade consultations started on the 24th in Malaysia; the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China successfully concluded; the central bank announced a 900 - billion - yuan MLF operation on October 27 [1].
转债周度跟踪:负债端回暖,关注新一轮行情启动-20251025
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-25 12:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Policy support has significantly boosted the equity and convertible bond markets. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind Micro - cap Stock Index have reached new phased highs, but the style rotation is rapid, with technology and dividend sectors taking turns. Amid the intertwining of Sino - US tariff issues and domestic policy expectations, the equity market is highly volatile, yet its downside risk is controllable. The convertible bond market is expected to be optimistic, and in the short - term, its initiative comes from the liability side. With the return of net inflows into convertible bond ETFs and the potential launch of stock - bond constant ETFs, the convertible bond market may start a new round of rally after a retracement [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week's View and Outlook - Policy has significantly boosted the equity and convertible bond markets. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind Micro - cap Stock Index hit new phased highs, with a fast - paced style rotation between technology and dividend sectors. The equity market is volatile due to Sino - US tariffs and domestic policy expectations, but its downside risk is controllable. The convertible bond market is likely to be positive, and in the short - term, the liability side is driving it. Net inflows into convertible bond ETFs have resumed, and the upcoming stock - bond constant ETFs may increase demand for convertible bonds. Attention should be paid to the start of a new round of market after a retracement [3][6]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - During the week of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, risk preference was resilient, and the 100 - yuan valuation rose to around 36%. High - grade large - cap convertible bonds showed stronger valuation performance. As of the latest data, the 100 - yuan premium rate of the whole - market convertible bonds was 35.7%, up 0.6% from the previous week, and the latest quantile was at the 93.9% percentile since 2017. High - grade convertible bonds had a larger increase in valuation than low - grade ones. Compared with last week, the conversion premium rate and the bottom - support premium rate in each parity range mainly increased. The valuation performance was relatively strong in the low - parity range below 80 yuan and the 110 - 120 yuan parity range, while it slightly declined in the high - parity range above 140 yuan. The median price and the yield to maturity of convertible bonds were reported at 131.80 yuan and - 6.47% respectively, up 2.07 yuan and down 0.01% from the previous week, and their quantile levels were at the 99.20 and 0.60 percentiles since 2017 [5][7][12]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - During the week, Tongcheng Convertible Bond announced redemption, while Fuchun Convertible Bond, Youfa Convertible Bond, and Zhonghuan Convertible Bond 2 announced non - redemption, with a forced - redemption rate of 25%. There were 18 convertible bonds that had issued forced - redemption or maturity - redemption announcements but had not yet delisted. The potential conversion or maturity balance of the forced - redeemed and matured convertible bonds among the non - delisted ones was 4.9 billion yuan. Currently, there were 34 convertible bonds in the redemption process, and 12 were expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, which should be closely monitored [5][15][18]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - During the week, Lanfan Convertible Bond proposed a downward revision. As of the latest data, 107 convertible bonds were in the non - downward - revision period, 23 could not be downward - revised due to net - asset constraints, 2 had triggered the condition and the stock price was still below the downward - revision trigger price but no announcement had been made, 32 were accumulating days for downward revision, and 1 had issued a board - meeting plan for downward revision but had not yet held a general meeting of shareholders [20]. 3.3.3 Put Option - During the week, Baolai Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - option announcement. As of the latest data, 2 convertible bonds had issued put - option announcements, and 5 were accumulating days to trigger the put - option. Among them, 1 proposed a downward revision, 1 had triggered the downward - revision condition, 1 was accumulating days for downward revision, and 2 were in the non - downward - revision period [24]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - There was no new issuance of convertible bonds during the week. Jin 25 Convertible Bond, Funeng Convertible Bond, and Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 had been issued but not yet listed. According to the latest announcement, Jin 25 Convertible Bond will be listed next week (October 27, 2025). As of the latest data, there were 7 convertible bonds awaiting registration approval, with a total issuance scale of 6.7 billion yuan, and 6 convertible bonds that had passed the listing committee review, with a total issuance scale of 3.6 billion yuan [27].
转债凸性与定价系列报告之三:转债定价策略的“理想”与“现实”
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-25 12:41
Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the Black-Scholes (BS) model as a foundational option pricing model, despite its limitations in practical applications [6][7][8] - It highlights the advantages of using Monte Carlo simulation for pricing convertible bonds, particularly in accounting for complex features such as redemption and down-round clauses [34][41] - The report discusses the relationship between implied volatility and actual bond pricing, suggesting that discrepancies can indicate market conditions [20][25][26] Group 1: BS Model and Its Applications - The BS model is a fundamental option pricing model that assumes stock prices follow a geometric Brownian motion, which is crucial for understanding option pricing [6][9] - The report outlines the application of the BS model in calculating implied volatility, theoretical pricing, and Greek letters, which are essential for assessing convertible bonds [20][31] - It notes that the BS model's limitations include its inability to account for certain bond features, leading to potential overvaluation or undervaluation of convertible bonds [26][18] Group 2: Monte Carlo Simulation - Monte Carlo simulation is presented as a method that can effectively incorporate the impact of bond features on pricing, contrasting with the BS model's separation of bond value and option value [34][41] - The report details the steps involved in Monte Carlo simulation, including generating random stock price paths and evaluating cash flows based on bond features [34][37] - It concludes that while Monte Carlo simulation may require more computational resources, it often yields more accurate pricing results compared to the BS model, especially in bear markets [41][46] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The report suggests constructing investment strategies based on the pricing discrepancies identified through BS and Monte Carlo simulations, focusing on undervalued convertible bonds [34][41] - It emphasizes the importance of Greek letters in developing investment strategies, as they provide insights into the sensitivity of bond prices to various factors [31][32] - The report indicates that strategies based on BS pricing deviations and Monte Carlo simulations have historically outperformed traditional low-price strategies [41][49]
公募REITs周度跟踪:季报窗口流动性改善-20251025
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-25 11:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Market liquidity continues to improve, but attention should be paid to the selling pressure brought by concentrated share unlocks. The market showed a mixed trend this week, with the first three days in adjustment and the last two days in recovery. There was sector differentiation, with data centers and environmental protection and water services leading the gains, while consumption and affordable housing sectors led the losses. As it is the window period for the third - quarter reports (expected to be released next week), market trading activity is increasing. However, the pressure of strategic placement share unlocks in REITs needs to be watched. On October 29th, 46% of the shares of Huatai Baowan Logistics REIT will be unlocked (approximately 603 million yuan), and about 7.5 billion yuan worth of shares are expected to be unlocked in November (a total of 5 REITs, with the unlocked share ratio ranging from 18.1% to 55.8%), which may bring certain selling pressure. [3] - As of October 24, 2025, 18 new public REITs have been successfully issued this year, with a total issuance scale of 36.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 24.2%. Two new public REITs made progress this week, with the establishment of CITIC Construction Investment Shenyang International Software Park REIT and Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial REIT. [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First - level Market: Two New Public REITs Made Progress - This year, 18 public REITs have been successfully issued (6 in Q1, 4 in Q2, 6 in Q3, and 2 in October), with a total issuance scale of 36.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 24.2%. Two new public REITs, CITIC Construction Investment Shenyang International Software Park REIT and Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial REIT, were established this week. [4] - As of October 24, 2025, in the current approval process, there are 10 newly - applied REITs, 3 of which have been queried and responded, 3 have passed the review, and 3 are registered and awaiting listing. For expansion, 5 have been applied, 3 have been queried and responded, and 2 have passed the review. [4] 3.2 Second - level Market: Liquidity Increased This Week 3.2.1 Market Review: The CSI REITs Total Return Index Fell 0.16% - The CSI REITs Total Return Index (932047.CSI) closed at 1045.13 points this week, with a decline of 0.16%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.08 percentage points and the CSI Dividend by 0.89 percentage points. The year - to - date increase of the CSI REITs Total Return Index is 7.98%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 10.46 percentage points and outperforming the CSI Dividend by 6.66 percentage points. [4] - By project attribute, property - type REITs fell 0.13%, while franchise - type REITs rose 0.46%. By asset type, data centers (+1.40%), environmental protection and water services (+1.32%), transportation (+0.47%), and warehousing and logistics (+0.36%) sectors performed well. [4] 3.2.2 Liquidity: Both Turnover Rate and Trading Volume Increased - The average daily turnover rates of property - type and franchise - type REITs this week were 0.53% and 0.47% respectively, an increase of 13.70 and 11.36 basis points compared to last week. The trading volumes this week were 496 million and 134 million shares respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 35.73% and 31.88%. The data center sector had the highest activity. [4] 3.2.3 Valuation: The Affordable Housing Sector Had a Higher Valuation - From the perspective of ChinaBond valuation yields, the yields of property - type and franchise - type REITs were 3.93% and 4.07% respectively. The warehousing and logistics (5.40%), transportation (4.93%), and park (4.48%) sectors ranked among the top three. [4] 3.3 This Week's News and Important Announcements - **News**: On October 22nd, Shenghao Group initiated the issuance of communication tower infrastructure public REITs, and companies such as China Merchants Fund had in - depth discussions on including communication towers as a new asset type in the REITs pilot scope. On October 23rd, the Guangzhou government supported the issuance of REITs for eligible consumption and cultural tourism projects; the Qingcheng Mountain - Dujiangyan Scenic Area launched the selection of asset appraisal institutions for its REITs; the Putuo District government approved the public REITs project of Zhoushan International Aquatic City; Hunan Province solicited opinions on promoting the issuance of REITs for urban renewal projects. [34] - **Announcements**: Several REITs released their September operation data, including China Merchants Expressway REIT, Huatai Jiangsu Expressway REIT, etc. Huatai Baowan Logistics REIT and CICC Liandong Science and Technology Innovation REIT announced share unlocks. [34]
江苏金租(600901):业绩增速符合预期,净息差较中报略有提升
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-25 11:19
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiangsu Jinzu (600901) [2] Core Views - The company's performance for the first nine months of 2025 met expectations, with operating income reaching 4.638 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.15%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 2.446 billion yuan, up 9.82% year-on-year [5][8] - The company has shown steady growth in interest-earning assets and a significant increase in bond payables, with total assets reaching 162 billion yuan, an 18% increase from the previous year [8] - Asset quality is improving, with a non-performing financing lease asset ratio of 0.90%, down 1 basis point from the previous year [8] - The net interest margin for the leasing business reached 3.75%, an increase of 8 basis points year-on-year [8] - The company has implemented a mid-term dividend policy, with a payout ratio of 48% and a dividend yield of 2.16% [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts operating income for 2025 to be 5.891 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.6% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 3.234 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.56 yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.9% [6][9]