2026 年 01 月 05 日 市场情绪逐步修复，价量一致性快 速上升 ——量化择时周报 20260104 相关研究 证券分析师 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 量 化 策 略 - ⚫ 市场情绪逐步修复：截至 12 月 31 日，市场情绪指标数值为 1.35，较上周五的 1.1 小幅 增加，情绪得分逐步修复，从情绪角度来看观点看多。从所有分项指标分数之和的变化来 看，本周情绪指数综合得分同样较上周有所提升，市场交易活跃度出现反转回升迹象。 ⚫ 情绪指标逐步修复，价量一致性快速上升：本周价量一致性指标周内快速上升，较前期有 所改善，市场价量匹配程度回升，资金关注度与标的涨幅相关性增强，情绪端呈现边际回 暖；科创 50 相对万得全 A 成交占比延续下行趋势，反映高弹性板块参与度仍偏低，风险 偏好修复仍显不足；行业间交易波动率持续下降并下穿布林带上界，资金在不同行业间切 换节奏放缓，跨行业轮动意愿减弱，流动性边际趋缓；行业涨跌趋势性指标维持在布林带 上界附近震荡，行业观点一致性较高，板块 β 效应仍占主导；融资余额占比持续上行并创 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Kuaishou-W (01024) is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Insights - Kuaishou's AI model, Keling, has seen significant updates, including the launch of the world's first unified multimodal video model, Keling O1, and the audio-visual synchronization model, Keling 2.6, which are expected to drive user growth and payment rates [7][8] - The One series of end-to-end generative models continues to boost the core business, with improvements in marketing and e-commerce driving revenue growth [19] - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027, maintaining a "Buy" rating despite macroeconomic pressures [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for Kuaishou are as follows: - 2023A: 113,470 million RMB - 2024A: 126,898 million RMB - 2025E: 142,185 million RMB - 2026E: 155,153 million RMB - 2027E: 169,326 million RMB - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023A: 10,271 million RMB - 2024A: 17,716 million RMB - 2025E: 20,228 million RMB - 2026E: 22,284 million RMB - 2027E: 25,470 million RMB - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are: - 2023A: 2.38 RMB - 2024A: 4.12 RMB - 2025E: 4.74 RMB - 2026E: 5.22 RMB - 2027E: 5.96 RMB - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 21% in 2027 [6][21] User Growth and Product Development - Keling AI's website traffic has significantly increased, surpassing competitors like Minimax and Midjourney by the end of December 2025 [7] - The Keling 2.6 model offers a pricing advantage over competitors such as Google Veo3.1 and Sora2, with video generation costs being lower [10] - The OneRec model has improved marketing revenue by approximately 4%-5% and enhanced e-commerce order volume by 5% through better product matching [19][13]

Investment Rating - The report rates the EDA industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2][24]. Core Insights - The domestic EDA industry is experiencing heightened activity with multiple IPOs and investments, signaling an accelerated development phase [4]. - The long-term trend suggests the emergence of 2-3 leading EDA firms through mergers and acquisitions, with a focus on domestic alternatives [4][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic process divergence, IPO and acquisition activity, and the need for industry chain collaboration and support from policies and capital [12][15][16]. Summary by Sections Key Industry Events - In December 2025, four significant events occurred in the domestic EDA industry, including three IPO-related activities and one equity investment [4]. - Notable events include: - Hejian Industrial Software Group initiated IPO counseling on December 26, 2025, focusing on digital IC verification and IP [5]. - Xinheng Semiconductor completed its IPO counseling on December 20, 2025, specializing in multi-physical field simulation [6]. - Huada Jiutian invested 100 million yuan in Sierxin, acquiring a 90.9% stake in the company on December 16, 2025 [8]. - Quanxin Zhizao started IPO counseling on December 11, 2025, focusing on manufacturing tools [11]. Industry Perspectives - The report highlights opportunities arising from the divergence of domestic processes, as domestic wafer fabs develop new technology paths that are unsupported by overseas EDA vendors [12]. - The active IPO and acquisition landscape indicates a shift towards a concentrated market with fewer leading players, aligning with the overall development trend of the EDA industry [15]. - Emphasis is placed on the necessity for EDA firms to possess platform capabilities to enhance competitiveness and the role of local EDA companies as integration platforms [16]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides valuations for key companies in the EDA sector as of December 31, 2025: - Huada Jiutian: Market cap of 58 billion yuan, projected revenues of 12 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 25 billion yuan by 2027 [18]. - Gai Lun Electronics: Market cap of 15.2 billion yuan, projected revenues of 4 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 8 billion yuan by 2027 [18]. - Guangliwei: Market cap of 14.4 billion yuan, projected revenues of 5 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 12 billion yuan by 2027 [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting an expected strong performance relative to the market over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 83 billion to 89 billion yuan for the full year of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 78% to 91%. The fourth quarter alone is expected to yield a net profit of 38 billion to 44 billion yuan, with significant growth rates [4][7]. - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Wenkang Salt Lake from its controlling shareholder for 4.605 billion yuan, which will enhance its control over lithium and potassium resources [4][7]. - The company anticipates producing approximately 4.9 million tons of potassium chloride and 46,500 tons of lithium carbonate in 2025, with prices for both products expected to rise [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 18.221 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 8.526 billion yuan, reflecting an 82.8% increase [6][8]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 48.6% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 19% [6][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 1.61 yuan, with further increases expected in subsequent years [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the power and gas sectors, including Guodian Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and China Nuclear Power [9][48]. Core Insights - The 2026 long-term electricity prices are under pressure, with significant declines observed in transaction prices across various provinces, indicating a shift in the profitability model of the power industry towards a diversified income structure [6][9]. - Natural gas consumption saw a year-on-year increase of 5.1% in November 2025, driven by heating demand and improved industrial activity, suggesting a positive outlook for the gas sector [31][33]. - The report emphasizes the need for optimization of the electricity market mechanism and restructuring of the power supply to adapt to the changing landscape [6][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - The annual trading results for 2026 show a total transaction volume of 2,724.81 billion kWh in Jiangsu, with a weighted average price of 344.19 RMB/MWh, down 16.55% from the previous year [5][7]. - Similar trends are observed in Guangdong and Anhui, with prices decreasing by 5.03% and 10.09% respectively, indicating widespread pressure on electricity prices in coastal provinces [5][7]. - The transition of thermal power from a primary energy source to a regulatory support role is highlighted, with a shift towards a revenue model that includes capacity and auxiliary service income [6][9]. 2. Natural Gas - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of natural gas reached 36.28 billion m³, marking a 5.1% increase year-on-year, while the total consumption from January to November was 388 billion m³, a slight decline of 0.1% [31][33]. - The report notes that the increase in natural gas production and favorable pricing conditions are expected to enhance the profitability of city gas companies [33]. - Recommendations include focusing on integrated gas trading companies and city gas firms that are likely to benefit from lower costs and improved margins [33][34]. 3. Environmental Protection - The report mentions the implementation of water price adjustments in Zhongshan and the introduction of waste disposal fees in Foshan, which are expected to improve cash flow in the environmental sector [9]. - Companies such as Zhongshan Public Utilities and Longxin Technology are highlighted as beneficiaries of these regulatory changes [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's REITs market has entered the fast - lane of high - quality development. The official pilot of commercial real - estate REITs was launched in December 2025, and a series of policies were introduced to promote market expansion, improve liquidity, and optimize the registration system [4]. - In December 2025, the REITs market declined with a volume contraction, and concession - based REITs had a deep correction. However, there was an oversold rebound in the second half of the month. The annual return of the CSI REITs Total Return Index was 4.34% [41]. - The offline subscription of China Nuclear Clean Energy REIT was extremely popular in December 2025, with a record - high offline subscription multiple. Meanwhile, Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT broke below its issue price on the first trading day [4][100]. - In January 2026, there are no REITs restricted shares scheduled to be lifted. In the second half of December 2025, 4 new REITs applications were accepted, and Shanxi Securities Jinzhong Public Investment Ruiyang Heating REIT updated its response materials [107][109]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commercial Real - estate REITs Officially Piloted, Policy Combinations Implemented - **Regulatory Announcements**: On December 31, 2025, the CSRC officially launched the pilot of commercial real - estate REITs. The official version only slightly modified the product definition compared to the solicitation draft, clarifying the holding path of "public fund - ABS - SPV - underlying assets" [4][7]. - **High - Quality Development Policies**: These policies include supporting "mixed - asset" REITs, expanding the scope of original equity holders to bank and insurance asset management institutions, promoting market expansion, improving the secondary - market liquidity, and optimizing the REITs application and registration system [4][11][13]. - **Exchange Rule Adjustments**: The exchanges separately adjusted the relevant REITs systems, including listing separate review requirements for different asset types, allowing "high - price elimination" in offline subscriptions, and clarifying the disclosure requirements for different commercial real - estate sectors [20][24]. - **Industry Association Rule Changes**: The China Securities Association tightened the access requirements for offline investors and added 10 prohibited behaviors, with penalties upgraded to the offline investors themselves [27][31]. 3.2 Rebound after Oversold in December's Second Half, Concession - Based Assets Under Greater Pressure - **Market Index Performance**: In December 2025, the CSI REITs Total Return Index decreased by 2.9% for the month. However, it rebounded by more than 2% after an oversold situation on December 24. The annual return of the index in 2025 was 4.34% [41]. - **Asset - Type Performance**: In December, all REITs index types except IDC declined. Concession - based assets such as utilities, transportation, and energy had the deepest declines. In 2025, consumer, warehousing logistics, and rental housing REITs had the highest annual returns [47]. - **Individual Bond Performance**: In December, more than 90% of concession - based individual bonds declined, while the rise - to - fall ratio of industrial park REITs improved [48]. - **Liquidity**: The average daily turnover rate of REITs in December 2025 was 0.40%, the lowest monthly level of the year. The turnover rate of rental housing REITs decreased the most [54]. - **Dividend Yield**: As of December 31, 2025, the average dividend yield of equity - based REITs was 4.60% (at the 61% quantile), and that of concession - based REITs was 9.12% (at the 90% quantile). The dividend yield of transportation REITs reached 9.95%, at the 95% historical high [58]. - **Valuation and IRR**: The P/NAV of equity - based REITs was 1.22X, at the 65% historical quantile, and the P/FFO of concession - based REITs was 12.27X, at the 30% historical quantile. The IRR of both major asset types significantly increased and was around the 40% quantile [70][75]. 3.3 High Offline Popularity of China Nuclear Clean Energy REIT, Deep Break - below of Anbo Logistics on First Day - **New Issues in December 2025**: China Nuclear Clean Energy REIT conducted offline price inquiries in December 2025, with an issue size of 1.505 billion yuan. Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [80]. - **Subscription and Pricing**: China Nuclear Clean Energy REIT had a record - high offline subscription multiple of 340 times. It was priced close to the upper limit, with almost no discount. Its expected dividend yield in 2026 was lower than that of comparable REITs [89][92][93]. - **Listing Performance**: Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT broke below its issue price on the first trading day, with a decline of 10%. After excluding extreme values, the offline subscription return rate for 100 million yuan of funds in REITs from January to December 2025 was 3.42% [100][101]. 3.4 No REITs Restricted Shares to be Lifted in January 2026 - Based on the announcements of Shanghai and Shenzhen REITs in the second half of December 2025, there are no REITs restricted shares scheduled to be lifted in January 2026 [107]. 3.5 Four New Applications Accepted, Shanxi Securities Jinzhong Heating REIT Updates Response Materials - **Queueing Projects**: In the second half of December 2025, 4 new REITs applications were accepted, and Shanxi Securities Jinzhong Public Investment Ruiyang Heating REIT updated its response materials after answering the inquiry letter [109]. - **Bidding Information**: GF Fund won the bid for the infrastructure REITs project of Southern Xinjiang Energy Group [110].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 8.3 billion to 8.9 billion yuan for the full year of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 78% to 91% [4]. - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Wenkang Salt Lake for 4.605 billion yuan, which will enhance its control over lithium and potassium resources [4]. - The expected production for potassium chloride in 2025 is approximately 4.9 million tons, with a sales volume of 3.8143 million tons, while lithium carbonate production is projected at 46,500 tons [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 18.221 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.4% [6]. - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 8.526 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 82.8% [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 1.61 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 [6]. - The gross margin is forecasted to be 48.6% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 19% [6]. Market Conditions - The price of potassium chloride is expected to remain strong, with a contract price of 348 USD per ton for 2026, which is a slight increase from 2025 [7]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is anticipated to rebound due to increased storage needs and a tightening supply-demand balance [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [1]. Core Insights - The 2026 long-term electricity prices are under pressure, with significant declines observed in transaction prices across various provinces, reflecting a shift in the power generation model from reliance on thermal power to a more diversified income structure [6][7]. - Natural gas consumption saw a year-on-year increase of 5.1% in November 2025, indicating a recovery in demand, particularly due to heating needs during the winter season [34]. - The report highlights the importance of optimizing the electricity market mechanism and restructuring the power generation mix as key future trends [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: 2026 Long-term Electricity Prices - The annual transaction results for 2026 show a total transaction volume of 2,724.81 billion kWh in Jiangsu, with a weighted average price of 344.19 yuan/MWh, down 16.55% from the previous year [6][8]. - Similar trends are observed in Guangdong and Anhui, with prices decreasing by 5.03% and 10.09% respectively [6][8]. - The report suggests that coastal provinces will face significant pricing pressure in 2026, as the role of thermal power shifts from being the main energy source to a regulatory support role [7]. 2. Gas: November Natural Gas Consumption - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of natural gas reached 362.8 billion m³, marking a 5.1% increase year-on-year, while the total consumption from January to November was 3,880 billion m³, a slight decline of 0.1% [34]. - The report notes that the increase in consumption is attributed to a low base from the previous year and a recovery in industrial gas demand [34]. - The report also highlights a favorable trend in natural gas pricing, with a decrease in costs due to lower international oil prices and improved supply conditions [36]. 3. Investment Analysis Recommendations - For thermal power, the report recommends companies with integrated coal and power operations, such as Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian, as well as those with significant large unit ratios like Datang Power and Huaneng International [10]. - In the hydropower sector, companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power are recommended due to their sufficient capacity and expected improvements in profit margins [10]. - The report suggests focusing on nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power, which have stable cost structures and high utilization hours [10]. - For green energy, companies such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power are highlighted for their stable returns and increasing operational benefits from environmental value releases [10].

Group 1: Quantum Technology - The "quantum + supercomputing" integration innovation platform has been established in Chengdu, deploying China's first 550-qubit coherent optical quantum computer, enabling the collaboration of classical high-performance computing and quantum computing [7][8] - The deployment of the 550-qubit quantum computer fills the gap in the central and western regions of China for quantum computing capabilities, establishing a complementary regional computing power structure with eastern regions [8][9] Group 2: Biological Manufacturing - The first sugar science key laboratory in Beijing has been approved, co-established by Huaxi Biological and Peking University, focusing on precise manufacturing and functional applications of sugars [10][11] - Huaxi Biological aims to leverage this laboratory to enhance its capabilities in synthetic biology, expanding from hyaluronic acid production to comprehensive sugar biological research [11] Group 3: Hydrogen Energy and Nuclear Fusion - The world's first 30 MW pure hydrogen gas turbine has achieved stable operation, marking a significant step in hydrogen energy transitioning from a "power consumer" to a "grid regulator" [12][13] - The EAST nuclear fusion device has confirmed the existence of a density-free regime, providing critical physical evidence for efficient operation of fusion reactors [18][19] - The Chinese Academy of Sciences has completed the manufacturing of all ITER correction coil procurement packages, marking a significant achievement in domestic R&D capabilities for nuclear fusion components [22] Group 4: Brain-Computer Interface - Neuralink plans to begin mass production of brain-computer interface devices in 2026, aiming to automate surgical procedures and enhance device performance [23][24] - The "Beijing Brain No. 1" system has been implanted in five spinal cord injury patients, achieving clinical breakthroughs, with plans for clinical trials to start in mid-2026 [26][27] - The "Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Brain Science and Central Nervous System Disease AI Innovation Alliance" has been launched, focusing on research and development in brain science and related technologies [28] Group 5: Embodied Intelligence - Woan Robotics has gone public in Hong Kong, focusing on household scenarios with plans to launch a humanoid household robot in January 2026 [29][30] - The "Qiyuan Q1," the world's first small-sized humanoid robot with full-body force control, has been released, targeting research and interactive applications [33][34] Group 6: Future Industry Catalysts - A table has been organized detailing key catalytic events for six future industries in 2026, including important conferences and technological milestones [36][38]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the pig farming sector, indicating a left-side layout strategy due to increasing industry losses and accelerated capacity reduction [3][4]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index rose by 0.1%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.6%. Key stock performers included Hualu Biological (6.5%) and Muyuan Foods (5.5%), while Guotou Zhonglu saw a decline of 10.8% [3][4]. - The report highlights a significant rebound in pig prices before New Year's, driven by seasonal demand and reduced supply. However, it anticipates a price drop post-holiday due to increased supply and ongoing industry losses [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring capacity reduction in the pig farming sector and suggests potential investment opportunities in companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and Dekang Animal Husbandry [3][4]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The agricultural sector index increased by 0.1%, contrasting with a 0.6% decline in the broader market. Notable gainers included Hualu Biological and Muyuan Foods, while Guotou Zhonglu and others faced significant losses [3][4]. Pig Farming Sector - The report notes a rebound in pig prices before New Year's, attributed to reduced supply and increased consumer demand. However, it warns that this price increase may not be sustainable, predicting a bottoming-out trend in the coming quarters [3][4]. - Current losses in the pig farming sector are significant, with small-scale operations facing losses of -10.29 CNY per head and larger operations experiencing losses of -28.31 CNY per head [3][4]. Beef and Poultry Markets - The report discusses new import quotas and tariffs on beef, which are expected to ease pressure on domestic supply. Current beef prices show slight declines, indicating a stable market environment [3][4]. - In the poultry sector, the average price for broiler chicks has decreased slightly, while the price for broiler chickens has reached a new high, suggesting a mixed outlook for the poultry market [3][4].