Group 1: Relationship Between RMB and Hong Kong Stocks - Since 2016, there has been a significant positive correlation between the RMB and Hong Kong stocks, with a negative correlation coefficient of -0.54 between the Hong Kong stock index and the USD/RMB exchange rate[4] - When the RMB appreciates by more than 1.5% in a month, the Hang Seng Index has a 93.5% probability of rising, but since November 13, 2025, the RMB appreciated by 1.9% while the Hang Seng Index fell by 4.8%[5] - This divergence is only the third occurrence of such a phenomenon since 2016, indicating a potential shift in the typical relationship between currency and stock performance[6] Group 2: Factors Affecting Stock Performance - Weak performance in key sectors of the Hong Kong stock market has limited the positive impact of RMB appreciation on stock earnings, with the Hang Seng Index's future 12-month EPS continuously declining since Q4 2025[6] - The real estate and energy sectors have particularly underperformed, contributing to the overall weakness in the Hong Kong stock market despite RMB appreciation[6] - The market has been characterized by profit-taking and low trading volumes, which have restricted the immediate positive feedback from favorable factors such as currency appreciation[6] Group 3: Future Outlook - As earnings improve and foreign capital allocation effects recover, the relationship between the Hong Kong stock market and the RMB may revert to a positive correlation[7] - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from a recovery in earnings and a potential increase in foreign investment, particularly if the Producer Price Index (PPI) shows signs of improvement[7] - The RMB's resilience is anticipated to continue into 2026, supported by nominal GDP recovery and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S.[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metal and new materials industry, indicating a strong spring market [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the non-ferrous metal index has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date increase of 94.73%, surpassing the CSI 300 by 77.07 percentage points [6]. - The report emphasizes the upward trend in various metal prices, with copper prices increasing by 122.97% year-to-date, and lithium prices also showing significant growth [10]. - The report suggests that the demand for copper is expected to remain strong due to increased investments in power grids and AI data centers, which will likely support higher price levels in the long term [5]. Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.71%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.29% during the week [5]. - The non-ferrous metal index increased by 3.31%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.39 percentage points [6]. - The report notes that precious metals have seen a year-to-date increase of 79.89%, while aluminum and energy metals have risen by 70.62% and 103.31%, respectively [10]. Price Changes - The report details price changes for various metals, with copper prices increasing by 2.14% week-on-week and 41.69% year-on-year, while aluminum prices rose by 1.18% week-on-week and 17.40% year-on-year [16]. - Lithium prices have shown significant increases, with battery-grade lithium hydroxide rising by 15.98% week-on-week [18]. Inventory and Supply - The report indicates that domestic copper social inventory increased by 4.5 thousand tons, reaching 239 thousand tons, while exchange inventories also saw a rise [31]. - The report highlights that the supply of cobalt remains tight due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to an increase in cobalt prices [5]. Company Valuations - The report provides valuations for key companies in the industry, with Zijin Mining's stock price at 35.40 yuan per share and a projected PE ratio of 29 for 2024 [19]. - Other notable companies include Shandong Gold at 40.19 yuan per share with a PE ratio of 71, and China Aluminum at 13.02 yuan per share with a PE ratio of 18 [19].

Investment Rating - The report rates the EDA industry as "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][19]. Core Insights - The domestic EDA industry is experiencing heightened activity, entering an accelerated development phase, with significant IPO movements and mergers [3][11]. - The long-term outlook suggests that the EDA industry will consolidate into 2-3 leading firms through mergers and acquisitions, with a focus on domestic alternatives [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Events of the Month - **Horizon Industrial Software Initiates IPO Counseling**: Horizon Industrial Software submitted its IPO counseling to the Shanghai Securities Regulatory Commission on December 26, 2025, focusing on digital IC verification and IP [4]. - **Xinheng Semiconductor Completes IPO Counseling**: On December 20, 2025, Xinheng Semiconductor completed its IPO counseling, offering multi-physical field simulation capabilities [5]. - **Huada Jiutian Invests in Sierxin**: On December 16, 2025, Huada Jiutian announced a 1 billion investment in Sierxin, acquiring a 90.9% stake, enhancing its digital IC design capabilities [6][7]. - **Quanxin Intelligent Manufacturing Starts IPO Counseling**: On December 11, 2025, Quanxin Intelligent Manufacturing initiated its IPO counseling, focusing on OPC and other manufacturing tools [8]. 2. Industry Perspectives - **Opportunities from Domestic Process Divergence**: The EDA industry is closely tied to the semiconductor ecosystem, with domestic wafer fabs developing new technology paths that create independent market space for local EDA firms [9]. - **Active IPO and M&A Movements**: The report highlights three new IPO processes in the EDA sector, indicating a shift towards a concentration of leading players and an active M&A environment [11]. - **Importance of Industry Chain Collaboration and Support**: The report emphasizes the need for EDA firms to have platform capabilities to enhance competitiveness, supported by local government initiatives and national funds [12]. 3. Valuation of Key Companies - **Huada Jiutian**: Projected revenue of 12 billion in 2024, increasing to 25 billion by 2027, with a market cap of 580 billion [14]. - **Gailun Electronics**: Expected revenue growth from 4 billion in 2024 to 8 billion in 2027, with a market cap of 152 billion [14]. - **Other Companies**: Additional companies are also highlighted with their respective revenue projections and market caps, indicating a positive growth trajectory in the EDA sector [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next six months [3][6][18]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see user growth and increased payment rates due to the recent updates in its AI models, particularly the launch of the One series and the Keling 2.6 version, which enhances user engagement and monetization opportunities [2][6][7]. - The financial forecasts have been adjusted, with revenue projections for 2025-2027 slightly lowered, but the adjusted net profit estimates remain stable, reflecting confidence in the company's core business despite macroeconomic pressures [5][6][18]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 113.47 billion RMB - 2024: 126.90 billion RMB - 2025: 142.19 billion RMB - 2026: 155.15 billion RMB - 2027: 169.33 billion RMB - The adjusted net profit estimates are: - 2023: 10.27 billion RMB - 2024: 17.72 billion RMB - 2025: 20.23 billion RMB - 2026: 22.28 billion RMB - 2027: 25.47 billion RMB - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 2.38 RMB in 2023 to 5.96 RMB in 2027, with a return on equity (ROE) forecasted to remain strong at around 21% to 29% over the same period [5][18]. Product Development and Market Position - The Keling AI has launched several significant updates, including the Keling O1 model, which supports multi-modal video generation, and the Keling 2.6 version, which features audio-visual synchronization, enhancing user experience and engagement [6][7][12]. - The pricing strategy for Keling's services shows a competitive advantage over rivals like Google Veo3.1 and Sora2, with lower per-second video generation costs, which is expected to attract more users and increase revenue [9][10]. Marketing and E-commerce Impact - The One series models have positively impacted the company's marketing and e-commerce sectors, with the OneRec model improving domestic marketing revenue by approximately 4%-5% and the OneSearch model enhancing product matching and user experience, leading to a 5% increase in search order volume [12][17].

Group 1 - Market sentiment is gradually recovering, with the sentiment index reaching 1.35 as of December 31, up from 1.1 the previous week, indicating a bullish outlook [2][7] - The overall trading activity in the market has shown signs of reversal, with a notable increase in trading volume, which rose by 8.30% week-on-week, averaging 21,283.35 billion yuan in daily trading volume [13] - The price-volume consistency indicator has improved significantly, reflecting a recovery in market sentiment and a stronger correlation between capital attention and stock price increases [10][11] Group 2 - The short-term scores for industries such as machinery, media, computers, beauty care, and automobiles have shown upward trends, with defense and non-ferrous metals leading with scores of 88.14 [34] - The model indicates a preference for small-cap and growth styles, with the 5-day RSI relative to the 20-day RSI continuing to rise, suggesting potential strengthening of these signals [44] - The industry crowding indicator shows a positive correlation with weekly price changes, particularly in sectors like defense and petrochemicals, which have seen significant inflows and price increases [40][42]

业 及 产 业 有色金属 2026 年 01 月 05 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 金属价格延续强势，看好春季行情 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251229-20260102 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 1．一周行情回顾 行 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.71%，深证成指上涨 0.29%，沪深 300 下跌 0.09%，有色金属（申 万）指数上涨 3.31%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 3.39 个百分点。2）分子板块看， ...

2026 年 01 月 05 日 两新补贴正式落地符合预期，看好 预期修复下的交易机会 看好 ——2025/12/29-2026/1/4 汽车周报 《补贴落地践行渐进，看好预期修复下的 交易机会——2025/12/22-2025/12/28 汽车周报》 2025/12/29 《L3 智驾车型许可发放，继续看好智能 化、中高端和二手车市场—— 2025/12/15-2025/12/19 汽车周报》 2025/12/22 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 A0230524080008 zhufz@swsresearch.com 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 本期投资提示： 1.1 新势力月度销量更新 究 / 行 点 业 评 汽车 ⚫ 观点：两新补贴正式落地，计算方式由定额制转向按车价比例计算，结构导向更加清 晰，此前对行业 26 年总量的担心有望得到修复。看好中低端需求为主的比亚迪、吉 利，以及基本面α弹性显著的北汽、江淮 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The report does not explicitly mention the investment rating for the industry [1][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the Chinese equity market experienced an N-shaped trend, and there were multiple investment opportunities in different sectors, which provided opportunities for some active equity funds to achieve high returns. In 2026, the report maintains an optimistic attitude towards the market, emphasizing the importance of maintaining defensive discipline while seeking offensive opportunities through diversified multi - sector layouts and appropriate phased key allocations [5][71] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review: Overall Review of the 2025 Equity Market - The 2025 Chinese equity market had an N-shaped trend. It started strong, then declined due to external impacts, and finally rose steadily. The Shanghai Composite Index once exceeded 4,000 points. The Wande All - A Index rose 27.65%, the CSI 300 rose 17.66%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 18.41%. There were also obvious structural trends in the market, with significant differences in returns among industries [12] 3.2 Which Active Equity Funds Effectively Seized the Sector Theme Opportunities in 2025? - **Precious Metals**: Throughout 2025, precious metals performed strongly. Fund managers such as Ye Yong, Li Xiaohua, Wu Guoqing, and Liu Wenzhe effectively seized the opportunity [34][37] - **Innovative Drugs**: The innovative drug theme was strong in the first three quarters but weakened in the fourth quarter. Fund managers like Zheng Ning, Sang Xiangyu, Liang Furui, and Jin Xiaofei effectively grasped the opportunity [40] - **New Consumption & Hong Kong - Stock Connect Consumption**: These sectors were strong in the first half of 2025 but declined in the second half. Fund managers including Fu Juan/Liu Han, Song Jialing, Wu Yuanyi, and Qu Shaojie effectively seized the opportunity [45] - **AI Computing Power**: The main upward trend of AI computing power was in the third quarter. Fund managers such as Ren Jie, Wang Haoyu, Han Hao, and Jiang Shan effectively grasped the opportunity [48] - **New Energy**: The new energy market rebounded from September to mid - November. Fund managers such as Huang Qianyi, Yao Zhipeng/Xiong Yuzhou, Li Tao/Song Yang, and Zheng Chengran effectively seized the opportunity [51] 3.3 Sales End: Which Funds Did Investors Prefer in 2025? - In 2025, 334 new active equity funds were launched, with a total issuance scale of 161.898 billion yuan, showing a significant recovery. Funds with high net subscription amounts in Q3 2025 included Yongying Advanced Manufacturing Selection and China Europe Digital Economy. There were 12 new products with an issuance scale exceeding 2 billion yuan, and China Merchants Balanced Selection had the largest issuance scale at 4.955 billion yuan. China Merchants Bank was the leading custodian bank, and E Fund had the largest issuance scale of active equity funds [54][56] 3.4 Fund Company Comparison: Differences in Investment Performance and Style? - In 2025, top - performing fund companies with active equity funds over 10 billion yuan in Q3 included Yongying Fund, AVIC Fund, Caitong Fund, and Huashang Fund. Few fund companies performed well in all four quarters. Huashang Fund and Baoying Fund had relatively balanced performance in different quarters. There were also differences in market capitalization, valuation, and internal performance differentiation among fund companies [58][59] 3.5 Commonalities of High - Performing Funds: Significant Industry Allocation Advantages? - Most high - performing funds were technology - themed funds, with diverse sources of returns, including stock - picking and trading adjustments. Most funds obtained significant excess returns through industry allocation, with communication and electronics being important sources of returns [63][64] 3.6 Newcomers and Veterans: Which Promising Newcomers Emerged in 2025? Which Veterans Maintained High - Level Performance? - In 2025, some promising new fund managers emerged, including those focusing on popular sectors like Shan Lin and Ren Jie, moderately balanced ones like Ke Zheng and Yu Yi, and some quantitative - style managers like Kong Xianzheng and Liu Weiming. Veterans such as Liu Yuanhai, Zou Lihu, and Li Yin maintained good performance in the past two years, and mid - career fund managers like Guo Weiling, Liu Jianwei, and Hu Zhongyuan also performed well in 2025 [66][69] 3.7 Outlook: 2026 Active Equity Fund Investment Strategy - In 2026, the report suggests maintaining defensive discipline while seeking offensive opportunities through multi - sector diversification and appropriate phased key allocations. Key sectors to focus on include technology, cyclical sectors, and potential reversal opportunities in currently weak sectors. In addition to maintaining an overweight in growth style, more attention will be paid to the dividend style and the overseas expansion strategy [71][72]

2026 年 01 月 05 日 市场情绪逐步修复，价量一致性快 速上升 ——量化择时周报 20260104 相关研究 证券分析师 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 量 化 策 略 - ⚫ 市场情绪逐步修复：截至 12 月 31 日，市场情绪指标数值为 1.35，较上周五的 1.1 小幅 增加，情绪得分逐步修复，从情绪角度来看观点看多。从所有分项指标分数之和的变化来 看，本周情绪指数综合得分同样较上周有所提升，市场交易活跃度出现反转回升迹象。 ⚫ 情绪指标逐步修复，价量一致性快速上升：本周价量一致性指标周内快速上升，较前期有 所改善，市场价量匹配程度回升，资金关注度与标的涨幅相关性增强，情绪端呈现边际回 暖；科创 50 相对万得全 A 成交占比延续下行趋势，反映高弹性板块参与度仍偏低，风险 偏好修复仍显不足；行业间交易波动率持续下降并下穿布林带上界，资金在不同行业间切 换节奏放缓，跨行业轮动意愿减弱，流动性边际趋缓；行业涨跌趋势性指标维持在布林带 上界附近震荡，行业观点一致性较高，板块 β 效应仍占主导；融资余额占比持续上行并创 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Kuaishou-W (01024) is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Insights - Kuaishou's AI model, Keling, has seen significant updates, including the launch of the world's first unified multimodal video model, Keling O1, and the audio-visual synchronization model, Keling 2.6, which are expected to drive user growth and payment rates [7][8] - The One series of end-to-end generative models continues to boost the core business, with improvements in marketing and e-commerce driving revenue growth [19] - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027, maintaining a "Buy" rating despite macroeconomic pressures [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for Kuaishou are as follows: - 2023A: 113,470 million RMB - 2024A: 126,898 million RMB - 2025E: 142,185 million RMB - 2026E: 155,153 million RMB - 2027E: 169,326 million RMB - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023A: 10,271 million RMB - 2024A: 17,716 million RMB - 2025E: 20,228 million RMB - 2026E: 22,284 million RMB - 2027E: 25,470 million RMB - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are: - 2023A: 2.38 RMB - 2024A: 4.12 RMB - 2025E: 4.74 RMB - 2026E: 5.22 RMB - 2027E: 5.96 RMB - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 21% in 2027 [6][21] User Growth and Product Development - Keling AI's website traffic has significantly increased, surpassing competitors like Minimax and Midjourney by the end of December 2025 [7] - The Keling 2.6 model offers a pricing advantage over competitors such as Google Veo3.1 and Sora2, with video generation costs being lower [10] - The OneRec model has improved marketing revenue by approximately 4%-5% and enhanced e-commerce order volume by 5% through better product matching [19][13]