Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.94 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 14.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 889 million yuan, also up by 14.6% year-over-year [4]. - The company is a global leader in film capacitors, with increasing sales and market share in sectors such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and energy storage [6]. - Research and development investments have been prioritized, with 140 million yuan allocated in the first three quarters of 2025, a 16% increase year-over-year, accounting for 3.6% of sales revenue [6]. - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, having distributed a total of 4.5 billion yuan in cash dividends in the first half of 2025, which is 43.31% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [6]. - The profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to 1.29 billion yuan, down from the previous estimate of 1.405 billion yuan, with new projections for 2026 and 2027 set at 1.5 billion and 1.73 billion yuan, respectively [6]. Financial Data Summary - For 2025, the total revenue is projected to be 5.709 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth rate of 19.6%. The net profit is expected to reach 1.291 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 24.3% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 5.74 yuan, with a gross margin of 33.4% and a return on equity (ROE) of 21.2% [5]. - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 20, 17, and 15, respectively, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical averages [6].

Investment Rating - The report rates the electric power equipment industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The electric power equipment industry is crucial for the transformation of the energy system and achieving the "dual carbon" goals, with its ESG performance directly impacting the greening and intelligence of the energy power industry chain [3][9] - Recent policies have been introduced to guide the industry towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, emphasizing the importance of technological innovation in promoting energy transition and enhancing supply chain resilience and security [9][10] - An ESG evaluation system tailored for the electric power equipment industry has been developed, incorporating new indicators focused on "green products and solutions," "R&D and innovation investment," and "supply chain ESG management" [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. ESG Policies in the Electric Power Equipment Industry - The electric power equipment industry is a key support industry for energy system transformation and achieving "dual carbon" goals, with its ESG performance linked to the green and intelligent levels of the energy power industry chain [3][9] - Recent policies have been issued to promote the green transition of the energy power industry, including the encouragement of distributed energy and multi-energy complementary services [9][10] 2. Construction of the ESG Evaluation System - The ESG evaluation system for state-owned enterprises in the electric power equipment industry includes four categories of positive indicators and one category of negative indicators, with a total of 21 primary indicators and 44 secondary indicators [3][9] - The "environmental indicators" focus on green development principles, with a total of 5 primary indicators and 14 secondary indicators, aiming to quantify the energy-saving and emission-reduction benefits of products and services provided by electric power equipment enterprises [3][12][13] 3. Specific Indicators - The "social indicators" reflect the social responsibilities of electric power equipment state-owned enterprises, with a focus on R&D and innovation investment, which is crucial for ensuring national energy security [3][17] - The "governance indicators" are essential for sustainable development, with a new primary indicator on "supply chain ESG management" that assesses the ESG risk management capabilities of upstream suppliers [3][20] 4. Scoring System - The scoring system includes a total of 112 points for positive indicators and a penalty of -3 points for each violation of regulations in environmental, social, or governance aspects [3][26][27]

Group 1: Tariff Analysis - The U.S. Supreme Court is debating the legality of reciprocal tariffs, with a higher probability of ruling them illegal but potentially delaying the effect to avoid public disorder [10][12]. - Three possible outcomes of the Supreme Court's ruling are identified: a high probability of ruling illegal with delayed effect, a medium probability of partial illegality allowing certain tariffs, and a low probability of upholding the legality of reciprocal tariffs [12]. - If reciprocal tariffs are deemed illegal, the U.S. may resort to other tariff measures, with a low probability of comprehensive tax refunds and a higher likelihood of targeted refunds [12]. Group 2: Consumer Sector Fund Analysis - Consumer sector funds can be categorized into five strategies: consumption + satellite, sector rotation, niche segments, consumption rotation, and consumption balance, with most managers favoring the niche segment strategy [11][12]. - The consumer sector funds have shown the ability to generate stable excess returns over the long term compared to sector indices, particularly excelling in stock selection within industries like home appliances and textiles [11][12]. - A comparative analysis of consumer sector funds reveals challenges in identifying the stock selection capabilities of fund managers when compared to broader industry funds [11][12]. Group 3: Photovoltaic Industry Insights - The commercialization of perovskite solar cells has seen significant advancements, with conversion efficiencies exceeding 26% and ongoing improvements in stability [17]. - The establishment of GW-level production lines is accelerating the commercialization process, with major companies like GCL-Poly and others set to launch production by 2025 [17]. - Policy support for new photovoltaic technologies, particularly perovskite, is expected to enhance industry competitiveness and facilitate capacity clearing through technological iterations [17].

2025 年 11 月 12 日 科创债 ETF 嘉实：打造科技领域债 券配置的核心工具 ——指数基金产品研究系列报告之二百五十七 证券分析师 肖逸芳 A0230524110001 xiaoyf@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 肖逸芳 A0230524110001 xiaoyf@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 指 数 研 究 相关研究 - ⚫ 全链条政策支持"债券科技板"发展：科创债政策体系通过顶层设计、机制创新与流动性 保障的三重驱动，构建起支持科技创新的金融生态。随着政策持续深化与市场参与度提 升，科创债有望成为推动新质生产力发展的核心融资工具，未来发展前景广阔。 ⚫ 科创债市场呈现显著热度：科创债市场在政策引导下持续扩容，交易活跃度与机构参与度 同步提升，成为支持科技创新与实体经济高质量发展的重要金融工具。 ⚫ 规模位居科创债 ETF 市场首位：作为全市场首批聚焦 AAA ...

Legal Analysis - The U.S. Supreme Court's debate on the legality of "reciprocal tariffs" shows a 3:6 split, with 6 justices leaning towards declaring them illegal[2] - The likelihood of a ruling against reciprocal tariffs is increasing, but a delayed effect is probable, allowing the government time to adjust[2][10] - Possible outcomes include a ruling of illegality with a delay (45%-55% probability), partial illegality focusing on specific tariffs like fentanyl (20%-30% probability), or a ruling upholding their legality (10%-20% probability)[16][17] Economic Implications - If reciprocal tariffs are deemed illegal, U.S. tariff revenue could decline by 25%, potentially dropping from $3,412 billion to $2,554 billion[4][23] - Current tariff structure: reciprocal tariffs account for 45% of U.S. tariff revenue, with 301 tariffs at 18% and 232 tariffs at 17%[4][23] - The effective tariff rate for the U.S. is currently 9.75%, with the highest rate on Chinese imports at 40.4%[4][29] Political Response - Trump may pivot to existing tariff laws (Sections 232, 301, and 338) if reciprocal tariffs are invalidated, with a low probability of widespread tax refunds[3][20] - The likelihood of targeted tax refunds is higher, but broad automatic refunds are unlikely due to legal constraints[3][22] Market Reactions - Following the Supreme Court's deliberations, market expectations for tariff legality have shifted, impacting capital markets and trade policies[5][10] - The recent government shutdown affected 670,000 federal employees, with 1.52 million remaining on payroll, highlighting the political stakes involved[5]

Legal Analysis - The U.S. Supreme Court's debate on the legality of "reciprocal tariffs" shows a 3:6 ratio in favor of declaring them illegal, indicating a high probability of a ruling against them[2] - The main arguments for declaring the tariffs illegal include the assertion that tariff authority belongs to Congress and that the IEEPA was intended to limit presidential power, not expand it[2][11] - Three potential outcomes of the ruling are identified: a likely illegal ruling with delayed effect (45%-55% probability), partial illegality with possible allowance for fentanyl tariffs (20%-30% probability), and a low probability (10%-20%) of upholding the legality of reciprocal tariffs[17][18] Economic Implications - If reciprocal tariffs are deemed illegal, the U.S. tariff structure may decline by approximately 25%, with total tariff revenue potentially dropping from $1,959 billion to $1,554 billion[4][26][37] - Current tariff revenue composition shows reciprocal tariffs account for 45%, Section 301 tariffs for 18%, and Section 232 tariffs for 17%[4][26] - The effective tariff rate for the U.S. is currently 9.75%, with the highest rate on Chinese imports at 40.4%[4][32] Political Response - In response to a potential ruling against reciprocal tariffs, Trump may resort to existing tariff laws such as Sections 232, 301, and 338, but the likelihood of broad tax refunds is low due to legal constraints[3][22] - The probability of universal tax refunds is low, with refunds likely limited to specific plaintiffs rather than a blanket return to all importers[3][25] - Trump's proposal to distribute tariff revenues to citizens faces significant legislative hurdles, requiring Congressional approval[3][25]

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the overall ESG performance of the selected coal enterprises is good, with most companies scoring above 70, and one company exceeding 90 [3][8]. Core Insights - The ESG performance management of the coal industry central enterprises shows a solid foundation, with a majority achieving high scores in ESG evaluations, reflecting a steady improvement in the industry's overall ESG development level [3][8]. - Environmental management is becoming more mature, with comprehensive pollution prevention and emission reduction measures in place, although transparency regarding energy consumption and carbon emissions data needs improvement [3][15]. - The social dimension highlights the active fulfillment of social responsibilities by coal central enterprises, particularly in rural revitalization and social welfare initiatives [3][38]. - The governance structure is robust, with complete establishment of party building and professional committees, but the linkage of ESG performance to assessment mechanisms remains insufficient [3][55]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Most coal central enterprises have good overall ESG scores, with the majority scoring above 70, indicating a solid foundation in ESG management [3][8]. - Only two companies have their ESG reports verified by third-party institutions, suggesting a need for improvement in third-party verification processes [3][8]. Environmental Management - Four companies scored over 20 points in environmental indicators, showing a strong emphasis on environmental protection management [3][15]. - All companies disclosed pollution prevention and emergency management measures, achieving a 100% disclosure rate for these indicators [3][15]. - However, only 40% of companies fully disclosed greenhouse gas emissions and pollutant information, which affects accurate carbon performance assessment [3][22]. Social Responsibility - All five enterprises disclosed specific projects and expenditures related to rural revitalization, demonstrating active engagement in social responsibility [3][39]. - Three companies provided details on their social welfare donations, indicating a commitment to community support [3][42]. - The newly added "energy supply guarantee" indicator reflects the industry's unique characteristics, with all companies mentioning their efforts in this area [3][52]. Governance Structure - The governance framework is solid, with 100% disclosure of party building activities and the establishment of ESG leadership bodies in most companies [3][55]. - However, only one company has effectively linked ESG performance to its assessment mechanisms, indicating room for improvement in this area [3][60]. - All companies have established compliance management systems, but none have set up a compliance committee [3][70].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the electronic industry, indicating expectations for the industry to outperform the overall market [37]. Core Insights - The electronic industry has shown a continuous recovery, with a 19% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3 2025, ranking third among all industries. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 50%, placing it eighth overall [5][9]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is benefiting from strong downstream demand, with companies like North Huachuang and Jiangfeng Electronics reporting revenue growth of 39% and 20% respectively in Q3 2025 [21]. - The storage segment is experiencing significant price increases, with Jiangbolong's revenue growing by 55% year-on-year in Q3 2025, indicating a robust market outlook [25]. - The AI-related computing segment is seeing accelerated growth, with Industrial Fulian's revenue increasing by 43% and net profit by 62% in Q3 2025, driven by strong demand for AI servers [31]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The electronic industry is in a phase of sustained recovery, with Q3 2025 marking the ninth consecutive quarter of year-on-year revenue growth [9]. - The Shenyin Wanguo electronic index has seen a rise in price-to-earnings ratio, reaching a peak of 69 times in October 2025, reflecting improved risk appetite [11]. 2. Semiconductor Equipment - The semiconductor equipment sector is in a structurally favorable period, with investments in equipment rising over 53% in the first half of 2025 despite a 9.85% decline in overall semiconductor industry investments [21]. 3. Wafer Foundry and Testing - The wafer foundry sector is experiencing high capacity utilization, with Huahong's revenue increasing by 21% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [22]. - Testing companies like Tongfu Microelectronics and Weicai Technology exceeded expectations with revenue growth of 95% and 98% respectively [22]. 4. Storage - The storage sector is witnessing comprehensive price increases, with major players like Jiangbolong and Demingli reporting significant revenue growth [25]. 5. Power Devices - The power device sector is showing signs of recovery, with companies like Yanjie Technology reporting a 52% increase in net profit year-on-year in Q3 2025 [27]. 6. Analog Chips - The competitive landscape for analog chips is improving, with companies like Shengbang and SIRUI reporting revenue growth of 70% and 71% respectively [28]. 7. Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics sector is poised for a hardware cycle driven by new product launches, with companies like Lingyi Zhi Zao reporting a 13% increase in revenue [30]. 8. Computing Related - The computing-related segment is experiencing strong performance, with companies like Shenghong Technology reporting a 79% increase in revenue and a 261% increase in net profit [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, specifically for central enterprises, with an investment rating of "Overweight" [4]. Core Insights - The report evaluates five central enterprises in the coal industry, highlighting their ESG performance management. Most companies scored above 70, indicating a solid level of ESG management within the industry [4][10]. - The environmental dimension shows maturity, with comprehensive pollution prevention and emission reduction measures, although transparency in energy consumption and carbon emissions data needs improvement [4][19]. - The social dimension emphasizes the active fulfillment of social responsibilities, particularly in rural revitalization and public welfare initiatives [4][41]. - The governance structure is robust, with complete establishment of party-building and professional committees, but the linkage of ESG performance to assessment mechanisms remains weak [4][57]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Most coal central enterprises exhibit strong overall performance in ESG assessments, with a majority scoring above 70, and some achieving scores between 80-89 and above 90 [4][10]. Environmental Management - Four enterprises scored over 20 in environmental indicators, reflecting a strong emphasis on environmental protection. However, there are gaps in the disclosure of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions data [4][19][25]. Social Responsibility - All five enterprises disclosed specific projects and expenditures related to rural revitalization. They also reported on social welfare actions, with three companies providing details on donation amounts [4][41][46]. Governance Structure - The governance framework is well-established, with all companies disclosing their party-building activities. However, only one company effectively links ESG performance to management assessments [4][57][62].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook on Xiaopeng Motors, shifting from a turnaround narrative to a focus on technological leadership [4][5]. Core Insights - Xiaopeng's second-generation VLA model supports end-to-end output and features such as navigation-free assisted driving, indicating a strong technological advancement [4][5]. - The company is expected to achieve a quarterly profit in Q4 of this year, with sales projected to reach nearly one million units driven by extended-range models [4][5]. - Collaborations with major companies like Volkswagen and Baowu Group are helping to monetize its technological advancements [4][5]. - In the Robotaxi sector, Xiaopeng's self-developed Turing chip, providing 3000 TOPS of computing power, addresses high computing demands at a lower cost, potentially improving profitability [4][5]. - The robotics division is expected to enter mass production by the end of 2026, leveraging technology from the automotive sector for efficiency [4][5]. Summary by Sections Xiaopeng Motors - The core logic for recommending Xiaopeng has evolved to emphasize its technological leadership rather than merely a turnaround from difficulties [4][5]. - The VLA model is designed to enhance performance by reducing precision loss and increasing potential through direct processing [6]. - The Turing chip's architecture supports advanced AI applications and autonomous driving, aligning with current technological trends [7]. Tianzhun Technology - The company demonstrates a strong capability to innovate and expand its AI visual detection technology across multiple production lines [8][9]. - The management's commitment to the embodied intelligence sector is a long-term strategy, focusing on market expansion rather than immediate profitability [8][9]. Industry Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic leading manufacturers like BYD, Geely, and Xiaopeng, as well as companies involved in intelligent trends and state-owned enterprise reforms [4]. - It highlights the importance of performance growth and robotics layout in component manufacturers, recommending companies like Fuyao Glass and New Spring [4].