Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating expected outperformance relative to the market [7]. Core Insights - The establishment of a joint venture, 紫光同芯科技, with partners including 宁德时代, aims to enhance the company's competitiveness in the automotive domain control chip market [3][7]. - The collaboration with 宁德时代 is seen as a strategic move to integrate key industry resources and accelerate market expansion [7]. - The company is positioned to enter a new growth phase, driven by its specialized operations in automotive chips and the implementation of employee equity incentives [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 7,194 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30.5% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach 1,723 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant increase of 46.1% year-on-year [5]. - Earnings per share are expected to grow to 2.03 yuan in 2025, with a projected gross margin of 56.8% [5][8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve to 12.7% in 2025, further indicating the company's strong financial health [5].

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a focus on high-dividend safety margin assets in the packaging and home furnishing sectors, indicating a stable industry landscape for leading companies like Yongxin Co., Yutong Technology, Huawang Technology, and Meiyingsen [3][4][5][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential benefits from the appreciation of the RMB, which is expected to lower paper procurement costs and support paper prices due to increased wood pulp prices and traditional peak seasons. It also suggests a medium to long-term focus on anti-involution policies in the paper industry [3][10]. - The home furnishing sector is anticipated to see valuation recovery driven by stable real estate policies and improving second-hand housing conditions, which will support demand for renovation and expansion [8][21]. - The report identifies opportunities in the export sector, particularly in furniture, as the U.S. interest rate cuts may boost consumption, and emphasizes the importance of supply chain and brand internationalization for companies like Jiangxin Home and Yongyi Co. [3][12]. - The pet products sector is noted for its robust export business and potential for synergistic growth through acquisitions, with companies like Yiyi Co. and Yuanfei Pet being highlighted [3][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Packaging Industry - The packaging industry is characterized by a mature competitive landscape, with leading companies reducing capital expenditures and demonstrating advantages in overseas layouts and customer resources. Companies like Yongxin Co. and Yutong Technology are noted for their stable high-dividend policies and growth potential [4][5][7]. 2. Home Furnishing Industry - The home furnishing sector is experiencing accelerated consolidation, with valuation recovery expected due to supportive real estate policies. Companies such as Kuka Home and Sophia are highlighted for their strong dividend yields and potential for market share recovery [8][21][29]. 3. Paper Industry - The paper industry is seeing a gradual recovery in demand, with prices expected to stabilize and rise due to strong production control from overseas pulp mills. Companies like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper are recommended for their potential to benefit from these trends [10][11]. 4. Export Sector - The export sector is influenced by currency fluctuations, with a focus on companies that are well-positioned for international operations. Jiangxin Home and Yongyi Co. are noted for their strong product offerings and international market strategies [12][13]. 5. Pet Products Sector - The pet products sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with companies like Yiyi Co. and Yuanfei Pet showing strong performance in exports and brand development [16][17]. 6. Light Industry Enterprises - Light industry companies are undergoing significant changes, with firms like Anfu Technology and Jianlin Home focusing on strategic acquisitions and technological advancements to enhance their market positions [3][18].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Standard Chartered Group [5][9]. Core Views - Standard Chartered Group is a globally positioned international bank with a strong focus on Asia, actively embracing emerging market opportunities, particularly in ASEAN and the Middle East. The bank's total assets reached approximately $914 billion as of Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% [5][22]. - The bank's return on tangible equity (ROTE) has shown a consistent upward trend, reaching 16.5% in 9M25, with expectations for continued improvement in profitability and shareholder returns [8][11]. - The report highlights the bank's strong non-interest income contribution, which stabilizes revenue amidst fluctuating interest rates, and its limited exposure to risks in the Chinese real estate sector [8][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Presence and Market Focus - Standard Chartered operates in 54 markets globally, with a significant emphasis on Asia, contributing over 64% of the group's revenue and 72% of pre-tax profit in 2024. The bank is strategically focusing on high-growth regions such as ASEAN and the Middle East [5][22][25]. 2. Financial Performance and Profitability - The bank's revenue is projected to grow from $17.38 billion in 2023 to $21.08 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.25% for 2023 and 7.03% for 2025. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from $3.47 billion in 2023 to $5.07 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 25.11% [6][9]. - The report anticipates a stable credit cost of around 0.2% in 2024, with a low non-performing loan ratio of 1.93% as of Q3 2025, indicating strong asset quality management [8][46]. 3. Business Segments - The bank's revenue is primarily driven by its Corporate and Investment Banking (CIB) segment, which contributes over 60% of total revenue, while Wealth Management and Retail Banking provide stable contributions of around 38% [5][31][35]. - Non-interest income has increased significantly, accounting for nearly 50% of total adjusted revenue, driven by strong performance in transaction banking, financial markets, and wealth management [8][46]. 4. Investment Analysis - The report projects a comprehensive return rate exceeding 7% for 2026, positioning Standard Chartered as a leader in the H-share banking sector. The anticipated growth in net profit and ROTE is expected to drive valuation recovery, with a target price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.40 for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 23% [9][10][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a target market value of 17.7 billion yuan for the company, with a corresponding PE ratio of 39 times for 2026, indicating a favorable investment outlook [5][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a national-level "little giant" in passive optical devices, leveraging the AI data center boom for accelerated expansion [5][12]. - The demand for passive optical devices is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing capital expenditure in global data centers and the rising need for high-speed optical communication [5][28]. - The company has established strong partnerships with major clients such as AFL, Coherent, and Jabil, with a revenue split of 10% domestic and 90% international, primarily serving high-profile customers like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft [5][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Established in 2011, the company focuses on passive optical devices, including passive fiber optic cabling and internal optical devices, primarily used in data centers and telecommunications [5][12]. - The company has achieved significant milestones, including the mass shipment of 400G and 800G passive internal optical devices, and has begun limited shipments of 1.6T products [5][12]. 2. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a new growth cycle for passive optical devices driven by technological iterations and AI demand, with a clear value growth logic as these devices become critical in high-speed optical communication [5][28]. - The AI demand is expected to drive both scale-out and scale-up in the optical device market, with significant increases in the interconnection needs of optical modules [5][49]. 3. Competitive Advantages - The company is building core barriers to growth through high R&D investment, strong customer relationships, and capacity expansion, focusing on high-end products and advanced manufacturing capabilities [5][30]. - The report notes that the company has a stable customer base and is expanding its production capacity to meet the growing market demand, particularly in overseas markets [5][24]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts indicate substantial growth, with expected revenues of 2.156 billion yuan in 2025 and net profits of 305 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 63.9% and 106.5%, respectively [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the company's low initial valuation compared to peers, suggesting a high potential for price appreciation in the context of the upcoming IPO [5][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the growth in AI ASIC and the upgrade of switch rates, particularly in the context of AI hardware [4][6]. - The revenue forecast for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 98 billion, 154 billion, and 203 billion yuan respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 55% for net profit during the same period [7][8]. - The report highlights that the current valuation does not reflect the growth potential, with a PEG ratio of 0.5 compared to an average of 0.8 for comparable companies, indicating a potential upside of 50% [7][8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (in million yuan) is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 4,687 - 2025: 6,829 - 2025E: 9,842 - 2026E: 15,353 - 2027E: 20,266 - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at 43.2%, 114.8%, 110.0%, 56.0%, and 32.0% respectively [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million yuan) is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 332 - 2025: 1,115 - 2025E: 1,721 - 2026E: 2,887 - 2027E: 4,119 - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 497.6%, 418.3%, 67.8%, and 42.7% respectively [5]. Company Overview - The company has been focused on PCB (Printed Circuit Board) business since its establishment in 1985, with applications in various fields including communication devices, network equipment, computers/servers, automotive electronics, consumer electronics, and industrial control [6][19]. - The company ranks 35th among the top 100 PCB manufacturers globally as of 2024 [6][29]. Market Dynamics - The data center PCB market is expected to grow from 12.5 billion USD in 2024 to 21 billion USD in 2029, with a CAGR of 10.9% [6][45]. - The demand for high-end PCB products is driven by the acceleration of AI capital expenditures, which enhances the infrastructure for servers and switches [6][45]. Production Capacity and Supply Chain - The company's production capacity is expected to increase from 2 million square meters per year in 2025 to 3 million square meters per year by 2027 [8]. - The company is expanding its production facilities in Dongguan, Ji'an, and Thailand, with new plants expected to come online in the near future [8][19]. Customer Base and Market Position - The company has established relationships with major clients such as Amazon, IBM, and Huawei, with server orders expected to account for 49% of total orders by 2024 [6][62]. - The company has a high customer concentration, with the top five customers accounting for a significant portion of revenue [37][38].

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 2025 年 12 月 30 日 牧原股份 (002714) ——领先成本助穿越周期，双擎共振启价值新程 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 投资要点： | 市场数据： | 2025 年 12 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 50.89 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 59.68/35.72 | | 市净率 | 3.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.95 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 193,921 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,965.12/13,604.07 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 13.89 | | 资产负债率% | 55.50 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 5,463/3,811 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势 ...

2025 年 12 月 30 日 中欧基金吉翔：专注发掘具有长期 竞争优势个股的价值型基金经理 ——基金经理研究系列报告之九十 相关研究 证券分析师 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 其 他 权 益 类 产 品 - ⚫ 价值风格的配置价值：长期投资性价比更高，日历效应提示当下配置价值：价值是一类 持有体验度较好的风格策略：（1）从长期配置维度下相对占优；（2）大多数时间下夏 普比明显更高；（3）最大回撤明显更低、创新高能力更强。日历效应反映近期价值风格 的配置价值：观察近 10 年时间中价值风格在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the defense and military industry, suggesting an "Overweight" rating due to anticipated growth and investment opportunities in the sector [4][25]. Core Insights - The defense and military sector is entering a recovery phase, with expectations of improved order delivery and performance in the fourth quarter of 2025. The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to drive significant growth in military orders from sporadic to more consistent patterns [4][20]. - Geopolitical uncertainties are increasing demand for consumable weapons and military trade, presenting substantial investment opportunities. Key areas of focus include new main battle equipment, consumable weapons, military trade, and military intelligence [4][20]. - The report highlights the recent surge in the defense and military index, which rose by 6%, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and the ChiNext [5][11]. Market Review - The defense and military index increased by 6%, while the military leader index rose by 5.12%. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.88%, and the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.95% [5][11]. - The report notes that the average increase for the civil-military integration index was 8.45%, indicating strong performance in this segment [5][11]. - Top-performing stocks in the defense sector included Shenjian Co. (61.2%), Aerospace Engineering (43.39%), and China Satellite (36.24%) [5][11]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the defense sector is 88.65, placing it in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 72.84% since January 2014 and 98.82% since January 2019 [12][19]. - The report indicates a slight differentiation in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment showing relatively high PE valuations since 2020 [12][19]. Key Investment Targets - Recommended stocks include high-end combat capabilities such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600316.SH) and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft (600767.SH), as well as new quality combat capabilities like Unigroup Guowei (002049.SZ) and Chengdu Huami (688709.SH) [4][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [12]. Core Insights - The automotive dealership sector, particularly represented by Zhongsheng Holdings, is undergoing a significant transformation, moving away from being perceived as a "negative amplifier" for automakers. The company is expected to benefit from new business initiatives, particularly with the introduction of the AITO brand, which is anticipated to drive performance and valuation recovery [2][3]. - The competitive landscape in the mid-to-high-end automotive market is expected to intensify, with traditional luxury brands facing ongoing operational pressures. However, automakers are likely to adopt strategies to stabilize dealership operations, which may lead to improved profitability for dealerships [3][4]. - Fuda Co., Ltd. is highlighted for its industrialization capabilities in robotics, with recent strategic partnerships aimed at enhancing production capacity and expanding into new markets, such as exoskeleton robots [5]. - Hengbo Co., Ltd. is noted for its vertical integration in the PEEK materials sector, which positions the company favorably to meet increasing demand from overseas clients, particularly in the humanoid robotics field [6]. Summary by Company Zhongsheng Holdings - The company is expected to see a 20% or higher profit growth in the coming year, with a valuation around 7 times earnings, indicating potential for further earnings per share (EPS) and dividend benefits as it returns to a normal operating cycle [4]. Fuda Co., Ltd. - The company has established a low-cost control mechanism through domestic equipment production and partnerships, which is expected to enhance its capacity and market reach in the robotics sector [5]. Hengbo Co., Ltd. - The company has a comprehensive R&D capability and a fully integrated supply chain in the PEEK materials sector, which is expected to drive growth as demand from international clients increases [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the overall market [3]. Core Insights - The strategic positioning of asset-liability management for insurance companies has been elevated, with the introduction of the "Insurance Company Asset-Liability Management Measures (Draft for Comments)" by the Financial Supervisory Authority [2]. - The draft emphasizes three main goals for asset-liability management: matching the term structure, cost-benefit matching, and liquidity matching, with insurance companies bearing primary responsibility and the authority overseeing compliance [2]. - The governance structure requires clear delineation of responsibilities for the board of directors and senior management, establishing an asset-liability management committee and department within insurance companies [2]. - The report highlights the importance of asset-liability management in mitigating interest spread risks, especially in a declining interest rate environment, and aims to enhance the risk warning mechanism for insurance operations [2]. Summary by Sections Regulatory and Monitoring Indicators - For property and casualty insurance companies, there are three regulatory indicators focusing on income-cost coverage and liquidity, all of which must not fall below 100% [5]. - For life insurance companies, four regulatory indicators are established, including effective duration gap and comprehensive investment income coverage, also requiring a minimum of 100% [5]. Valuation of Key Companies - The report provides a valuation table for key non-bank financial companies, including China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, with metrics such as market capitalization and price-to-earnings ratios [6]. - For instance, China Life has a market capitalization of 115.02 billion RMB and a PE ratio of 7.66, while Ping An has a market capitalization of 119.24 billion RMB and a PE ratio of 9.02 [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend several major insurance companies, including China Life (H), Ping An (A/H), China Pacific Insurance, China People’s Insurance, New China Life, and China Property Insurance, while suggesting to pay attention to China Taiping [3].