Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for China Modern Dairy [2][9][6] Core Views - The turning point for milk prices is approaching, with expectations for both volume and price increases [3][5][14] - The company has demonstrated significant cost control, leading to an industry-leading ability to reduce costs [4][13] - The industry is experiencing a pronounced Matthew effect, with the company gaining market share despite overall declines in milk production [5][14] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for China Modern Dairy are as follows: 2025: 14.44 billion yuan, 2026: 15.28 billion yuan, 2027: 16.06 billion yuan [6][15] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 310 million yuan in 2025, 750 million yuan in 2026, and 1.1 billion yuan in 2027 [6][15] - The gross margin for the raw milk business is projected to improve to 31.2% in 2024, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [4][13] Market Dynamics - The raw milk price has stabilized at 3.07 yuan per kilogram, indicating a bottom consolidation phase [3][11] - The cattle herd is decreasing at a rate of approximately 40,000 head per month, contributing to the anticipated rebound in milk prices [12][3] - The company’s raw milk sales reached 2.893 million tons in 2024, a 13.6% year-on-year increase, indicating strong performance against industry trends [5][14]

研究报告 Research Report 20 May 2025 中国 & 香港非银行金融 China (Overseas) & Hong Kong Non-Bank Financials 香港虚拟资产新政两周年：关键政策推动行业发展，机遇与挑战并存 A New Phase in Hong Kong's Virtual Asset Regulation: Key Policies Driving Industry Development Amid Opportunities and Challenges [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Author] Ling Tan ling.ml.tan@htisec.com [Table_yejiao1] 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国 际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证 券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(Please se ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 19 May 2025 国际石油开发帝石 (1605 JP) 因成本下降而优于预期；采用更为保守的油价预测基准 [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (本报告为 2025 年 5 月 13 日发布的英文报告的翻译版，以原稿为准) 要闻回顾以及最新动态 我们预计国际石油开发帝石 2025 年一季度业绩市场反应为积极。尽管营收不及预期，但由于成本低于预期及税率小 幅下降，公司的净利润高于一致预期。公司略微下调了 2025 财年指引，反映出对油价的保守预期，但重申今年股息 为 90 元/股（2024 财年为 86 元/股）。虽然公告中未提及，但我们认为 1,300 亿日元的股票回购计划仍属有效指引。 国际石油开发帝石仍是我们日本能源/工业板块的首选标的，此次业绩印证了这一观点，我们重申其"优于大市"评 级。 点评 营收不及预期，但因成本下降而优于预期：国际石油开发帝石的经调净收入约为 1,260 亿元人民币，而一致预期为 970 亿元人民币，主要得益于成本表现优于预期。在净利方面，公 ...

研究报告 Research Report 19 May 2025 零跑汽车 Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology (9863 HK) 一季度毛利创历史新高，规模效应重塑商业闭环 Record-High Q1 Gross Margin; Scale Effects Reshape the Commercial Flywheel [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 单季毛利创历史新高，实现百亿营收里程碑。零跑汽车 1Q25 业绩 表现强劲，营业收入达 100.2 亿元人民币，同比增长 187.1%，主 要得益于销量同比大增 162%，及产品组合优化带来的单车收入同 比增长。单季毛利率创历史新高，达 14.9%，同比提升 16.3 个百 分点，环比提升 1.6 个百分点，同比改善源于销量规模效应、成本 管理优化及产品组合改善，环比增长则受战略合作推动。归母净 亏损同比大幅收窄至 1.3 亿元，远超市场预期，得益于同比毛利改 善幅度高于费用支出增加，以及战略合作带来的直 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 19 May 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 中美关税博弈下的香港：挑战与对策 Hong Kong in the US-China Tariff War: Challenges and Responses 周林泓 Amber Zhou 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com yx.huang@htisec.com 2. 对投资环境的影响 1) 外资区域总部减少：外资撤离与区域总部减少的趋势近年显著。根据香港政府统 计处数据，2024 年母公司在海外及内地的驻港公司数目为 9960 家（+10.2%）。 按母公司所在地分析，内地驻港公司数目最多(2620 家)，其次为日本(1430 家)、 美国(1390 家)、英国(720 家)及新加坡(520 家)。驻港跨国公司地区总部数也在 2019 年达到 1541 家的峰值后逐年下跌，2023 年仅余 1336 家，创 11 年来新低； 2024 年数量增至 1410 家（+5.5%），实现过去 5 年来的首次增长。外资出走与地 缘 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 19 May 2025 [Table_header2] 奇德新材 (300995 CH) APPENDIX 1 Summary 奇德新材 Guangdong Kitech New Material (300995 CH) 高分子复合改性材料领军企业，碳纤维制品发展空间广阔 Polymer composite modified materials leader, accelerating international layout 孙小涵 Xiaohan Sun xh.sun@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) [Table_yejiao1] 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国 际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证 券活动。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Gushengtang with a target price of HKD 67.35 per share, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 33.10 [2][5]. Core Insights - The number of medical visits in Q1 2025 increased by 12.7% year-on-year, reaching approximately 1.21 million, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous year [3][10]. - The company is expected to see significant performance contributions in 2025 from mergers and acquisitions (M&A), artificial intelligence (AI), and in-hospital preparations [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are RMB 3.79 billion and RMB 4.63 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 25.3% and 22.2% [5][11]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted at RMB 480 million for 2025 and RMB 580 million for 2026, with growth rates of 20.6% and 21.0% [5][11]. - The company maintains a gross profit margin of 30.1% and a return on equity (ROE) projected to increase from 11.0% in 2023 to 15.3% in 2026 [5][9]. Growth Drivers - The company has signed equity transfer agreements with four domestic targets in Q1 2025, with an average valuation of 0.8-1x price-to-sales (PS) [4][13]. - An AI initiative is set to launch in July, expected to contribute RMB 30 million to annual performance by creating digital twins of leading TCM specialists [4][13]. - Plans to introduce 10 new in-hospital preparations in 2025, with anticipated revenue exceeding RMB 50 million [4][13]. Market Position - Gushengtang is recognized as a leading domestic chain in traditional Chinese medical services, benefiting from strong brand power and resilient performance [5][11].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 18 May 2025 泛亚微透 Pan Asian Microvent Tech (Jiangsu) (688386 CH) ePTFE 材料领先企业，加速推进国产替代 The leading enterprise in ePTFE, accelerating the promotion of domestic substitution 孙小涵 Xiaohan Sun xh.sun@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_yejiao1] 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国 际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证 券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) 公司是中国 ePTF ...

研究报告 Research Report 18 May 2025 香港医疗 Hong Kong Health Care 医药行业周报（2025.05.12-2025.05.16）：特朗普行政令引发市场波动；互联网医疗板块本周领跑 Healthcare industry weekly report (2025.5.12-2025.5.16): Trump's executive order triggers market volatility. Internet healthcare sector leads gain this week. [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 股票名称 | 评级 | | 京东健康 | Outperform 固生堂 | Outperform | | 药明生物 | Outperform 诺辉健康-B | Outperform | | 阿里健康 | Outperform 复宏汉霖 | Outperform | | 中国生物制药 | Outpe ...

研究报告 Research Report 18 May 2025 中国可选消费 China (A-share) Discretionary 可选消费周度趋势解析：本周宠物和美国消费板块股市表现最优，大多板块估值仍低于过去 5 年平均 Analysis of weekly discretionary trends： Pet and U.S. consumer sector stocks are the top performers this week, and valuations in most sectors are still below the average of the past five years [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 股票名称 | 评级 | | 美的集团 | Outperform 海信视像 | Outperform | | 格力电器 | Outperform 安克创新 | Outperform | | 海尔智家 | Outperform ...