Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1630 - 1690 in the short term [7]. - The domestic urea market transactions have adjusted upwards this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong has risen to 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [8]. - The resumption of previously overhauled devices has increased domestic urea production. Next week, 2 enterprises' devices are planned to stop, and 3 - 5 stopped enterprises' devices may resume production. The change in production is expected to be limited [8]. - The procurement of Northeast reserve demand has been relatively concentrated recently, but the procurement volume may slow down. The compound fertilizer start - up has increased slightly, and enterprises are gradually producing winter - storage fertilizers. The export demand is gradually increasing with the new quota. The urea enterprise inventory is expected to continue to decline [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 1630 - 1690 range in the short term [7]. - Market review: The domestic urea market transactions have adjusted upwards. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong has risen to 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [8]. - Market outlook: Production may change slightly. Northeast reserve procurement may slow down, compound fertilizer start - up may increase slightly, export demand is increasing, and enterprise inventory is expected to decline [8]. 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures has fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 0.12% [11]. - Inter - period spread: As of November 21, the UR 1 - 5 spread is - 74 [14]. - Position analysis: No specific summary information provided. - Warehouse receipt trend: As of November 20, there are 7183 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 0 compared to last week [22]. 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic price trend: As of November 20, the mainstream price in Shandong is 1640 yuan/ton (+40), and in Jiangsu is 1620 yuan/ton (+30) [28]. - Foreign price trend: As of November 20, the FOB price of urea in China is 400 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15 US dollars/ton compared to last week [31]. - Basis trend: As of November 20, the urea basis is - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton compared to last week [37]. 3.4. Upstream Situation - Coal and natural gas prices: As of November 19, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of November 20, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.49 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.1 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [41]. 3.5. Industry Situation - Capacity utilization and production: As of November 20, China's urea production is 142.04 tons, an increase of 4.35 tons compared to the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 3.16%. The capacity utilization rate is 83.91%, a decrease of 0.17% compared to the previous period [44]. - Inventory: As of November 20, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 10 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.95%. As of November 19, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 143.72 tons, a decrease of 4.64 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% [47]. - Export situation: In October 2025, urea exports were 120.25 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.30%; the average export price was 432.05 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.83% [50]. 3.6. Downstream Situation - Compound fertilizer and melamine start - up rates: As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers this cycle is 34.61%, a month - on - month increase of 4.29 percentage points. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine is 62.20%, an increase of 4.72 percentage points compared to last week [53].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.21」 热轧卷板市场周报 成本支撑减弱 热卷期价震荡偏弱 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至11月21日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3270（+14），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3320（+0）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：热卷产量小幅上调。316.01（+2.35），（同比+4.16）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求增加。本期表需324.42（+10.83），（同比+8.82）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库增、社库降。总库存402.11（-8.41），（同比+86.88）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率37.66%，环比上周减少1.30个百分点，同比去年减少16.89个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储公布10月28日至29日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOM ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the port methanol market continued to decline. The core contradiction of oversupply at the port remained unchanged, and the market lacked driving forces for improvement due to multiple negative factors such as abundant supply and weak downstream demand. In the near term, the overall methanol production increased as the output from restored production capacity exceeded the loss from maintenance and production cuts. The inventory of inland enterprises continued to decline, and the port inventory decreased. The short - term port - to - inland arbitrage space may remain open, and the high inventory may continue to suppress the port methanol market. The olefin industry's operating rate increased slightly this week and is expected to remain stable next week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1970 - 2050 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the port methanol market declined. The price in Jiangsu and Guangdong fluctuated between 1970 - 2090 yuan/ton. Inland supply shortages briefly improved local transactions, but the core contradiction of port oversupply remained [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production increased. Inland enterprise inventory declined, and port inventory decreased. The short - term port - to - inland arbitrage space may remain open, and the high inventory may continue to suppress the market. The olefin industry's operating rate increased slightly this week and is expected to remain stable next week [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1970 - 2050 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 2.48% [10]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of November 21, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 134 [15]. - **Position Analysis**: As of November 20, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 6,581, a decrease of 4,998 from last week [24]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of November 20, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2,007.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 47.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of November 20, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 233 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 84 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton from last week [32]. - **Basis**: As of November 20, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 8.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.5 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis 3.3.1 Upstream - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: As of November 19, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of November 20, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.49 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.1 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [40]. 3.3.2 Industry - **Production and Operating Rate**: As of November 20, China's methanol production was 2,014,185 tons, an increase of 41,210 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 88.77%, a month - on - month increase of 2.09% [43]. - **Inventory**: As of November 19, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 358,700 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 246,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1,479,300 tons, a decrease of 64,300 tons from the previous data. Both the East and South China regions saw inventory decreases [49]. - **Import Volume and Profit**: In October 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.6126 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.01%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 11.2793 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.10%. As of November 20, the methanol import profit was - 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.96 yuan/ton from last week [52]. 3.3.3 Downstream - **Operating Rate**: As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 90.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.12%. The load of East China olefin enterprises was slightly adjusted, and the overall weekly average operating rate increased slightly [55]. - **Profit**: As of November 20, the domestic methanol - to - olefin spot profit was - 448 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton from last week [58].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the synthetic rubber market, covering aspects such as market trends, supply and demand, and trading strategies [6] - The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market remained stagnant this week, with the spot price ranging from 10,000 to 10,800 yuan/ton [6] - The production and trade inventories of butadiene rubber are expected to increase slightly, while the overall demand improvement is limited [6] - The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,750 yuan in the short term [6] Group 2: Futures Market - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract declined this week, with a weekly decrease of 0.57% [10] - As of November 21, the 1 - 2 spread of butadiene rubber was 30 [17] - As of November 21, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,980 tons, unchanged from last week [20] Group 3: Spot Market - As of November 20, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 10,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from last week [26] - As of November 20, the basis of butadiene rubber was 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from last week [26] Group 4: Upstream Market - As of November 20, the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan was 573.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF middle - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 730 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [29] - As of November 21, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 72.53%, a decrease of 0.53% from last week [33] - As of November 21, the butadiene port inventory was 39,800 tons, an increase of 10,800 tons from last week [33] Group 5: Industry Situation - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from the previous month [36] - As of November 20, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 72.64%, an increase of 2.72% from last week [36] - As of November 20, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was 284 yuan/ton, a decrease of 352 yuan/ton from last week [39] - As of November 21, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 31,510 tons, an increase of 690 tons from last week [42] - As of November 21, the domestic butadiene rubber manufacturer inventory was 26,630 tons, an increase of 780 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 4,880 tons, a decrease of 90 tons from last week [42] Group 6: Downstream Market - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points month - on - month and 10.40 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year [45] - In October 2025, China's tire export volume was 653,100 tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons month - on - month and a decrease of 6.79% year - on - year; from January to October, China's cumulative tire export volume was 7,043,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68% [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The overall supply growth of the Shanghai lead market is limited, demand growth faces certain resistance, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, so the probability of continued consolidation increases. Today, the Shanghai lead price remained volatile with little movement on the disk. Attention should be paid to the support level of 16,980 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,014.5 dollars/ton, down 12.5 dollars. The 12 - 01 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai lead open interest was 82,766 lots, down 4,281 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 3,236 lots, up 573 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory was 42,790 tons, up 4,208 tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,475 tons, down 325 tons [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 17,125 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead from Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 17,310 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 95 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 27.39 dollars/ton, up 0.82 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,970 yuan, up 124 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 17,160 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 71.37%, up 1.83 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.87 tons, up 0.04 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead was 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 9,873.21 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 45,696 units, down 3,984 units; the Shenwan industry index of batteries was 2,060.82 points, down 58.5 points. The monthly automobile production was 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons; the monthly new energy vehicle production was 158 tons, up 24.7 tons [2] Industry News - There are major developments in the Russia - Ukraine situation, with a secret 28 - point peace - talk framework being discussed. The US authorities cancelled the October non - farm payroll report, and the November report is rescheduled to December 16. The Fed may further shrink its balance sheet. There are differences among Fed officials on interest rate cuts. The US trade deficit in August narrowed significantly. The Trump administration is considering suspending semiconductor tariffs, and the White House is blocking a bill to restrict AI chip exports. The US Attorney General will release the Epstein case file in 30 days [2] View Summary - On the supply side, the supply of domestic lead concentrate for primary lead remains tight, while the production of recycled lead is expected to increase. On the demand side, the demand for automotive lead - acid batteries weakens in November, but the overall operating level will gradually recover. The high Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots and tariff issues suppress the growth of demand. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the Shanghai lead market is likely to continue to consolidate [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Near-term raw material prices in Yunnan's rubber production areas have changed little. Although it has stopped raining in some areas, it remains cloudy, and raw material collection is still not ideal. In Hainan's production areas, the weather is okay, but the temperature has started to drop, the dry content of latex has declined, and local processing plants have gradually entered the winter stockpiling stage, maintaining a state of increasing prices to purchase raw materials. [2] - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to increase. The bonded warehouses are showing inventory reduction, while general trade continues to accumulate inventory. Overseas ship arrivals and warehousing still remain at a high level. Factories have sufficient replenishment in the early stage. The outbound goods from general trade warehouses are mostly for the delivery of previous orders. The downstream's willingness to stock up is low, and new orders are few, so the general trade inventory continues to accumulate. [2] - In terms of demand, tire enterprise orders are insufficient. Some enterprises have arranged maintenance during the cycle, and some have reduced production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. As the production scheduling of maintenance enterprises gradually resumes, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may show a restorative increase next week, but the overall demand improvement space is limited, and enterprises' production control continues, which will limit the increase range of capacity utilization. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,200 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,700 in the short term. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract is 12,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan. [2] - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber is 2,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 123,127 lots, a decrease of 3,000 lots; the position of the main 20 - rubber contract is 62,272 lots, an increase of 808 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 30,848 lots, a decrease of 1,192 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber is - 11,220 lots, a decrease of 3,852 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 39,600 tons, a decrease of 76,460 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber are 49,795 tons, an increase of 201 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,860 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,850 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan. [2] - The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,111 yuan/ton, an increase of 73 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract is 791 yuan/ton, an increase of 233 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 61.05 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 57.15 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht. [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 57 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 52.1 Thai baht/kg, unchanged. [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 149.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 5.4 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18 US dollars. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, an increase of 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The full - steel tire operating rate is 64.5%, a decrease of 0.96 percentage points; the semi - steel tire operating rate is 73.68%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.55 days, an increase of 0.35 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.36 days, an increase of 0.31 days. [2] - The monthly output of full - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.46%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.43%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option is 20.32%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is 20.33%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points. [2] Industry News - According to preliminary data from First Commercial Vehicle Network, in October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September this year, and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. [2] - According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%; the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13%. [2] - According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The economy in October continued the slowdown trend of the third quarter, with some economic indicators significantly affected by the external environment. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be observed. The economy in the fourth quarter is expected to maintain a weak recovery trend, supporting the bond market. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone and may focus on structural tools. The scope for further monetary easing this year is limited. Currently in a policy vacuum period, the market is unlikely to form a one - way trend, and interest rates may fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Price and Volume**: T, TF, and TS main contract closing prices increased by 0.06%, 0.06%, and 0%, respectively, while the TL main contract closing price decreased by 0.21%. T, TF, and TS main contract trading volumes increased by 14,928, 17,153, and 9,953, respectively, while the TL main contract trading volume decreased by 6,605. T, TF, TS, and TL main contract positions decreased by 19,712, 13,597, 8,909, and 9,075, respectively [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Most futures spreads decreased, including TL2512 - 2603, T2512 - 2603, TF2512 - 2603, and TS2512 - 2603 spreads [2] Bond Market - **CTD Bond Net Price**: Some CTD bond net prices increased, such as 220017.IB, 250018.IB, etc., while some decreased, such as 210005.IB, 210014.IB [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: Yields of 1y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active bonds changed by - 0.30bp, + 0.25bp, + 0.13bp, and + 0.20bp, respectively [2] Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates decreased by 2.66bp, 1.00bp, and 3.33bp, respectively. Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates decreased by 5.60bp, 2.70bp, and 2.20bp, respectively [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively [2] Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 300 billion yuan, with a maturity scale of 190 billion yuan and an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2] Industry News - The LPR rates on November 20 remained unchanged. From January to October, national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, and fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In October, national fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China will conduct treasury cash management commercial bank time - deposit tenders on November 24, with operation volumes of 120 billion yuan (1 - month) and 80 billion yuan (21 - day) respectively [2]

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-11-20 施压，但下方国内需求边际好转，盘面上，近期棉价存在止跌迹象，短期暂且观望。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13465 | -20 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19745 | -50 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -83369 | -3799 棉纱期货前20名净持 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Apple Industry Daily Report 2025 - 11 - 20 [1] - Researcher: Wang Cuibing [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03139616 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021556 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - As the apple storage process is not yet finished and is currently in the peak storage period, the volume of farmers' apple supplies going into storage has significantly increased. In the Shaanxi region, the storage and shipment processes are happening simultaneously, with the storage process almost complete. There is a small amount of external - sourced apples being shipped back to Luochuan, and some merchants are transferring locally - sourced low - price apples for storage, resulting in a relatively small overall shipment volume. In the sales market, there is good enthusiasm for purchasing high - quality apples. With the upcoming stocking period for Christmas and New Year's Day, the apple futures price is expected to remain high in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9496 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 140787 hands, with an increase of 16254 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 9165 hands, with an increase of 293 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.6 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4.2 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80, first - and second - grade fruit farmers' goods) is 4 yuan/jin, all with no change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The annual apple production in China is 5128.51 million tons, with an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.43 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.12 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.08 yuan/kg. The total weekly inventory in national apple cold storage is 65.82 million tons. The weekly capacity utilization ratio of Shandong apple cold storage is 0.54, with an increase of 0.03; that of Shaanxi is 0.59, with a decrease of 0.01. The monthly apple export volume is 70000 tons, with no change. The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1837980 million US dollars, with an increase of 248684.5 million US dollars. The monthly year - on - year growth rate of apple export value is - 8.5%. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin, with no change [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.67 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.56 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 5.34 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg. The average daily number of incoming trucks in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 12.2, with no change; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 16, with a decrease of 1; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 23.8, with a decrease of 0.2 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 21.81%, with a decrease of 1.43%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 21.81%, with a decrease of 1.43% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of November 19, 2025, the total inventory in apple cold storage in major producing areas in China is 773.16 million tons, with an increase of 8.92 million tons compared to last week. The capacity utilization ratio of Shandong apple cold storage is 54.29%, with an increase of 3.02%; that of Shaanxi is 59.10%, with a decrease of 0.34%. The storage of new - season late - maturing Fuji apples is almost complete, and the remaining inventory is mainly concentrated in places like Qixia, Shandong. The ground - level trading in the Shandong producing area is coming to an end [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 2025/26 season due to favorable weather in major Asian producing countries, causing ICE raw sugar futures to decline on Wednesday. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures fell 0.04 cents, or 0.30%, to settle at 14.66 cents per pound [2]. - The China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that China's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will reach 11.7 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons from last month's forecast. This is mainly due to a slight increase in the national sugar - cane planting area, good growth of southern sugar - cane, and a slight increase in the sugar content of northern sugar - beets. Currently, 26 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with an estimated total output of 1.4 million tons. Five sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, and nine in Guangxi have started production, 17 fewer than the same period last year. Recent continuous rainfall in the production areas has delayed the start of production. However, sugar imports increased significantly in October, and sugar prices are expected to remain low in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract was 5,366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 402,945 lots, an increase of 14,936 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 7,982, a decrease of 446. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 57,812 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast was 183, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,032 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 5,107 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,222 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan; that of Brazilian sugar was 4,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,555 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan; in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,740 yuan/ton, unchanged; and in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - cane planting area was 1.48 million hectares, an increase of 60,000 hectares. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835,090 hectares, a decrease of 12,860 hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 5.49%. The cumulative sales of cane sugar in Guangxi were 6.0229 million tons, an increase of 26.66%. The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan was 2.4188 million tons, unchanged. Brazil's total sugar exports were 4.205 million tons, an increase of 959,200 tons. The monthly sugar import volume was 750,000 tons, an increase of 200,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume was 3.16 million tons, an increase of 550,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 539,100 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons. The monthly output of soft drinks was 15.917 million tons, a decrease of 1.841 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 7.48%, an increase of 1.05 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 7.48%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility was 7.35%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility was 7.02%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In October 2025, China imported 35,900 tons of aqueous solutions of cane or beet sugar (HS code 17029011), 1,700 tons of other solid sugars, syrups, artificial honey, and caramel without added flavors or colorants (HS code 17029090), and 29,700 tons of flavored or colored aqueous solutions of cane or beet sugar (HS code 21069061), with a total of 67,300 tons for the three types of syrups. The import of simple solid mixtures of cane sugar, beet sugar, and other sugars with a sucrose content of over 50% (HS code 17029012) was 3,200 tons, and that of mixtures with other food raw materials (HS code 21069062) was 45,000 tons, with a total of 48,200 tons for the two types of premixes. The total import of the above - mentioned various types was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [2].