1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The document does not mention the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the impact of multiple factors on stock index trends and provides investment views and trading strategies [3] - Factors such as economic and corporate profitability, macro - policies, overseas factors, and liquidity are considered [3] - The overall view is that the market is in the process of bottom - building and fluctuating, and investors can consider taking long positions opportunistically [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Driving Forces** - **Economic and Corporate Profitability**: It is bearish. In November, China's PMI data was mixed, with the manufacturing PMI slightly recovering but the non - manufacturing PMI falling. Industrial enterprise profits were under pressure in October, with a year - on - year decline of 5.5% [3] - **Macro - policies**: It is bullish. On December 5, the National Financial Regulatory Administration adjusted the risk factors of insurance companies' related businesses, which could release funds for expanding investment [3] - **Overseas Factors**: It is slightly bullish. US inflation data was lower than expected, with the September core PCE price index rising 2.8% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.9% [3] - **Liquidity**: It is neutral. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 24.7 billion yuan compared with the previous week [3] - **Investment Views and Trading Strategies** - The market is bottom - building and fluctuating. Traders can consider taking long positions during market adjustments, leveraging the discount structure of stock index futures to increase the probability of long - term investment success [3] - The single - side strategy is to wait for the right opportunity to take long positions. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3] 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Broad - based Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.28% to 4584.5; the Shanghai 50 rose 1.09% to 3002; the CSI 500 rose 0.94% to 7097.8; the CSI 1000 rose 0.11% to 7342.5 [5] - **Industry Index Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, non - ferrous metals (5.3%), communication (3.7%), national defense and military industry (2.8%), machinery and equipment (2.8%), and non - bank finance (2.3%) led the gains, while media (-3.9%), real estate (-2.2%), food and beverage (-1.9%), computer (-1.7%), and textile and apparel (-1.6%) led the losses [8] - **Stock Index Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CSI 300 futures decreased by 3.35%, while the open interest increased by 7.16%. The trading volume of Shanghai 50 futures increased by 4.44%, and the open interest increased by 11.16%. The trading volume of CSI 500 futures decreased by 13.57%, and the open interest increased by 4.70%. The trading volume of CSI 1000 futures decreased by 11.33%, and the open interest increased by 4.72% [11] - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of December 5, all contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were in a discount state [15] - **Cross - variety Spread Performance**: The spread of CSI 300 - Shanghai 50 was at the 94.1% historical quantile level; the spread of CSI 1000 - CSI 500 was at the 41.1% historical quantile level. The ratios of CSI 300/CSI 1000 and Shanghai 50/CSI 1000 were at the 41.3% and 35% historical quantile levels respectively [19] 3.3 Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1511.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan. Next week, 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [25] - **Market Trading Volume and Margin Trading Balance**: As of December 4, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 2476.35 billion yuan, an increase of 10.3 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in total market trading volume was 10.8%, at the 92.2% quantile level in the past ten years. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 24.7 billion yuan compared with the previous week. As of December 5, the risk premium rate of CSI 300 was 5.28, at the 51.3% quantile level in the past ten years [31] 3.4 Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Profitability - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with slight improvements in supply and demand. The non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [3][34][42] - **Corporate Profitability**: The profitability of different broad - based indices and industries varied. For example, the year - on - year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent company of the CSI 300 in Q3, 2025 was 5.22%, and the ROE (TTM) was 9.93% [47] 3.5 Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Driven - A series of policies have been introduced in recent times, including policies to boost consumption, support the real estate market, and implement monetary and fiscal policies to promote economic development and stabilize the market [52][53][54] 3.6 Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In November, the US manufacturing PMI was 48.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.6%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In September, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.4%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was 119,000 [62] - **Trump Team's Actions**: Trump's team has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have a certain impact on international trade relations and the global economic situation [69][71][73] 3.7 Stock Index Influence Factors - Valuation - **Index Valuation**: As of December 5, 2025, the rolling P/Es of the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14 times, 11.9 times, 32.4 times, and 46.5 times respectively, at the 78.8%, 86.7%, 70%, and 66.9% quantile levels since October 2014 [77] - **Sector Valuation**: Different sectors had different levels of profitability and valuation, such as the food and beverage sector having a relatively high ROE and P/E [81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the container shipping industry on European routes is "oscillating", with both short - term, medium - term, and long - term amplitudes expected to be between - 5% and 5% [3][4][87] 2. Core View of the Report - The implementation of container shipping rates has been poor, but shipping companies continue to announce price increases for January rates. The 12 - month contract of container shipping on European routes has entered the delivery month, and the market is verifying previous expectations. Although there are some signs supporting the bulls (such as price increase announcements), the overall market is still suppressed by the downward adjustment expectation. The key to future trends lies in the final announcement of the "late - month freight rates", especially the freight rate performance in mid - to late December [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bullish. In late December, MSK quoted $2400, HPL quoted $2050, and CMA quoted $3550. MSK announced a price increase to $3500 for January [4] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Bearish. Major global liner company CMA CGM will change its INDAMEX route to pass through the Suez Canal. The traffic volume through the Bab el Mandeb Strait has reached the highest level since January 2024. European - related routes are significantly affected by supply - chain disruptions and supply - demand games. The FEWB route has a low blank - sailing rate of 0.9% in December, and the European Northern and Mediterranean main ports are congested. The TAWB route has serious congestion in Nordic and Mediterranean ports due to labor disputes, and there is a shortage of containers and trailers in many European countries [4] - **Capacity Supply**: Neutral. The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000 TEU, 245,000 TEU in October, 265,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [4] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate is lower than the same - period levels of the past two years. There is a differentiation in loading rates, with PA + MSC having the lowest loading rate in the alliance and a higher probability of price cuts, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [4] - **Summary**: Oscillating. The key to future trends is the final announcement of the "late - month freight rates" [4] - **Investment View**: Oscillating [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, also adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [4] 3.2 Price - The report presents price trends of various shipping routes through charts, including the European route index, the US - West route index, and the US - East route index [8] 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: The report shows the order volume of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods through charts [13] - **Delivery Volume**: It presents the delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods [16][18] - **Demolition Volume**: It shows the demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods [17][19] - **Future Delivery**: It provides information on the future delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods, including quarterly and annual data [22][24][25] - **Shipbreaking Price and New - building Price**: The report shows the shipbreaking price of container ships in different loading capacities, the new - building price index, and the new - building price of container ships in different loading capacities [29][31] - **Second - hand Ship Price**: It presents the second - hand ship price index and the second - hand ship prices of container ships with different loading capacities and ages [35][37][39] - **Existing Capacity of Container Ships**: It includes the total existing capacity, the existing capacity in different loading capacities, the existing capacity of ships over 25 years old, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, the average age, and the average age of shipbreaking [44][47][51] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)**: It shows the total capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, as well as the capacity deployments of different alliances such as PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, and OCEAN [59][63][67] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: It presents the number and proportion of container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, and the average speed of container ships [70][73][74] - **Idle Capacity**: It shows the idle capacity of container ships in terms of TEU and the number of ships, the idle capacity in different loading capacities, and the proportion of idle capacity [78][79][83]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities fluctuated and declined, still in a range - bound oscillation with different sectors showing divergent trends. Industrial products and agricultural products indexes both fluctuated downwards, while gold and non - ferrous sectors performed strongly due to the rising expectation of the Fed's December interest - rate cut. The black - goods sector was weak, and the energy - chemical sector oscillated. Overseas, the weak ADP employment data supported the Fed's possible December interest - rate cut, but there was great uncertainty. If Hassett became the next Fed chair, he might support faster rate cuts. The Bank of Japan's governor hinted at a December rate hike. Domestically, in November, the macro - economic climate was stable but declined slightly, and although the full - year "guaranteeing 5%" target was achievable, future domestic demand remained weak. Commodity prices may maintain an oscillatory pattern, and attention should be paid to policy guidance and central banks' decisions [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - **Market Review**: This week, domestic commodities oscillated and declined, with different sectors showing different trends. Industrial products and agricultural products indexes declined, while gold and non - ferrous sectors were strong due to the rising Fed rate - cut expectation; the black - goods sector was weak because of domestic economic weakness and cooling policy expectations; the energy - chemical sector oscillated due to the intertwining of multiple factors [4]. - **Overseas Situation**: The ADP employment data in November showed a reduction of 32,000 private - sector jobs, the largest decline since March 2023. After the data release, traders expected a nearly 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The weak data supported a possible December rate cut, but there was great uncertainty. Trump seemed to have pre - selected Hassett as the Fed chair, with an over 80% probability according to Kalshi. If elected, Hassett might support faster rate cuts, but he needed to convince other FOMC members. The Bank of Japan's governor hinted at a December rate hike, which was earlier than market expectations [4]. - **Domestic Situation**: In November, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, and the composite PMI was 49.7%. The manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded, but the service industry PMI declined significantly, and the overall macro - economic climate was stable but declined. Future domestic demand remained weak, but the full - year "guaranteeing 5%" target was achievable. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting in December [4]. - **Commodity Outlook**: Commodities may maintain an oscillatory pattern due to the intertwining of multiple macro - factors. Uncertainty about the Fed's December rate cut, the Bank of Japan's possible rate hike, weak domestic economic growth, and geopolitical changes may all cause market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to central banks' decisions [4]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - The ADP employment data in November was weak, which supported the Fed's possible December rate cut, but there was great uncertainty. Trump seemed to pre - select Hassett as the Fed chair, and if elected, he might support faster rate cuts but needed to convince other FOMC members. The Bank of Japan's governor hinted at a December rate hike, earlier than market expectations [4]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **PMI**: In November, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, and composite PMI was 49.7%. The manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded, but the service industry PMI declined significantly. The overall macro - economic climate was stable but declined, and future domestic demand remained weak. The full - year "guaranteeing 5%" target was achievable, and attention should be paid to relevant meetings in December [25]. - **REITs**: In December, the REITs market showed certain trends. In November 2025, there were some changes in the REITs market compared with the previous period [29]. - **Other Economic Indicators**: In 2025, there were comparisons of some economic indicators with 2024, such as GDP - related data, showing certain growth and changes in the economic structure [30]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Production**: The operating rates of the polyester industry chain and blast furnaces showed different trends at different times. For example, in December, the operating rates of PTA and POY were 74.1% and 89.00% respectively [41]. - **Automobile Sales**: In November and December, the wholesale and retail data of automobile manufacturers showed certain growth rates and changes, such as a 24.29%, 25.61%, and 30.47% increase in some data [48]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: In December, the average wholesale prices of some agricultural products such as vegetables, pork, fruits, and the agricultural product wholesale price 200 - index showed different trends [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillation", and the trading strategy is "unilateral: oscillation; arbitrage: M3 - M5 positive spread" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the influencing factors of the粕类 market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It believes that the market will be in an oscillatory state. The supply side has both positive and negative factors, the demand side shows different trends for豆粕 and菜粕, and the inventory situation is complex. The investment view is oscillatory, and the trading strategy is unilateral oscillation and M3 - M5 positive spread arbitrage [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: USDA's current forecast for 2025/26 US soybean yield is 53 bushels per acre, with an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - consumption ratio of 6.7%). Future US soybean yield may be further reduced due to less rainfall in the producing areas from August to September. CONAB predicts that Brazil's new - crop soybean production in 25/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 29, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 86%. As of November 26, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing progress reached 36%. In the next two weeks, the precipitation in Brazil's producing areas is expected to improve, and the dry weather in Argentina is conducive to sowing. From December to January, domestic soybean and豆粕 inventories are expected to seasonally decline, and there is uncertainty in domestic豆粕 supply in the first quarter of next year. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported菜粕 and rapeseed in China is expected to decline, and the 2025/26 global rapeseed production is expected to increase [5] - **Demand**: In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply.豆粕 has relatively high cost - performance. Recently, the downstream trading of豆粕 is normal, and the delivery performance is good, while the downstream trading and delivery of菜粕 are cautious [5] - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean and豆粕 inventories are at a high level in the same period of history, the inventory reduction of豆粕 is slow, and the spot supply pressure is still large, but it is expected to accelerate inventory reduction from December to January. This week, the inventory days of feed enterprises'豆粕 increased slightly. Domestic菜粕 inventory is continuously decreasing [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is neutral [5] - **Profit**: The domestic new - crop soybean purchase and crushing profit is good, and the Canadian rapeseed crushing profit is also good [5] - **Valuation**: From the perspective of basis, the recent price of豆粕 futures is at a neutral - to - high valuation position [5] - **Macro and Policy**: China and the US have reached a soybean purchase agreement, and China has started to purchase US soybeans, but the quantity and time of purchases are uncertain, which provides support for the US market. The domestic market is expected to be in short - term oscillation, and attention should be paid to the weather in South America. If there are no obvious weather problems, the new - crop discount is expected to be under pressure from December to January under the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil, and M05 is expected to be weak. The spread between M03 and M05 is expected to be a positive spread, with the risk point being the domestic reserve release [5] PART TWO:粕类 Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In November, the 25/26 US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio and the global soybean stock - to - consumption ratio decreased. The global rapeseed stock - to - consumption ratio also decreased [33][39] - **US Soybean**: The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has declined, the NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA US soybean monthly crushing volume have certain trends, and the US soybean export sales progress is slow [50][57][61] - **Brazilian Soybean**: The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is presented, and the CNF premium of soybeans and the import soybean futures margin are shown [68][70] - **Canadian Rapeseed**: The CFR price of Canadian rapeseed and the import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed are provided [72] - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic soybean and豆粕 inventories are at a high level, and the inventory of feed enterprises has increased slightly. The import volume of soybeans, rapeseed, and菜粕 in different months is presented, and the inventory of imported rapeseed and domestic主要地区菜粕 inventory are shown. The开机率 and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills, the trading and delivery of豆粕 and菜粕, the feed monthly output, the breeding profit of livestock and poultry, and the price and weight of pigs are also included [78][96][110]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The container shipping market is complex. The INDAMEX route of CMA CGM will change to pass through the Suez Canal, which is an important progress for container ships to return to the Red Sea route. The FEWB route has low empty - sailing rates and reduced capacity due to ship maintenance, with port congestion and strong e - commerce demand supporting freight rates. The TAWB route has serious port congestion due to labor disputes. The European container shipping route's December contract is in the delivery month, and the market is verifying previous expectations. The overall market is under downward - adjustment expectations, and the key to future trends lies in the final announcement of the "late - month freight rates" [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The present values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCET), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1398, 1115, 1550, 2315, and 1400 respectively, with corresponding declines of - 0.39%, - 0.62%, - 5.02%, - 14.29%, - 4.65%, and - 0.28%. The present value of SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1483 with a decline of - 9.52%, and the present value of SCFI - Mediterranean is 2300 with an increase of 3.05% [6] - **Contract Data**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604, the present values are 1252.5, 1367.1, 1040.0, 1658.6, 1609.9, and 1092.9 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 0.21%, - 1.34%, - 0.02%, 0.58%, 1.57%, and 0.26% [6] - **Position Data**: The present positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 2108, 1559, 3976, 3500, 32215, and 19350 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 33, 10, 15, - 231, - 2007, and 221 [6] - **Monthly Spread Data**: The present values of 12 - 02, 12 - 04, and 02 - 04 monthly spreads are 48.7, 565.7, and 517.0 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 15.4, 6.7, and 22.1 [6] 3.2 Market News and Analysis - **Route Changes**: CMA CGM's INDAMEX route will pass through the Suez Canal, which is an important step for container ships to return to the Red Sea route, increasing the traffic volume of this key route [7] - **FEWB Route**: In December, shipping companies strictly controlled capacity, with an empty - sailing rate of only 0.9%. Ship maintenance further reduced capacity. European northern and Mediterranean ports were congested, which extended ship turnaround and increased rejections. Strong e - commerce demand supported freight rates, and shipping companies promoted GRI to drive the market up, and the rates are expected to remain high during Christmas and New Year [7] - **TAWB Route**: Ports in Northern Europe (such as Rotterdam) and the Mediterranean were seriously congested due to labor disputes, with yard utilization rates exceeding 90%. Many European countries also faced container shortages [7] - **European Container Shipping Route**: In December, the contract entered the delivery month. Although there were some signs supporting the bulls (such as price increase letters), the overall market was under the pressure of downward - adjustment expectations. The key to future trends is the final announcement of the "late - month freight rates", especially the performance of freight rates in mid - to - late December [8] 3.3 Strategy - The strategy is to wait and see as the December contract is gradually losing trading value [9]

| | | | 日度策略参考 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整过程中逐步消化,后续有望 | | | | | 随着新主线的出现推动股指进一步上行。与此同时,中央汇金的 托底作用为市场提供了一定缓冲,指数下行风险整体可控。从策 | | | | | 略角度看, 近期市场的调整为明年股指进一步上行提供了布局机 | | 宏观金融 | | | 会,交易者可考虑在市场调整阶段逐步建立多头头寸,并借助股 | | | | | 指期货的贴水结构提升长线投资的胜率。 | | | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 答间。 | | | | | LME铜注销仓单引发挤仓担忧,铜价走高。但短期随着利好情绪消 化,铜价存在回落风险。88总 | | | | 震荡 | 短期随着利好情绪消化,价格存在回落风险。 | | | 氧化铝 | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,价格承 压下行,关注矿端价格变化。 | | | | 農物 | 短期宏观利好消 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the recent adjustment, the allocation value of bonds has started to emerge, and the attractiveness of 30 - year treasury bonds to allocation - type institutions has increased. The market will focus on key events such as the Central Economic Work Conference and the Political Bureau Meeting in December, which may provide new directional guidance. In the short - term, the pattern of a capped and floored bond market is difficult to break, and the yield of 10 - year bonds may remain in the range of 1.75% - 1.85%. If the expectation of interest rate cuts in early next year is strengthened, the bond market is expected to rise [8]. - In the medium - to - long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge in China's economic development. In the new normal stage where the marginal benefits of land finance and debt - driven economic growth decline, the asset - liability tables of residents and enterprises are impacted, and new economic growth drivers are still being cultivated. With the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, total demand is unlikely to recover fundamentally in the short term, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. The coordinated strengthening of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, and a low - interest - rate environment are crucial for policy implementation, making it difficult for bond yields to rise significantly [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Last week, the performance of treasury bond futures across different maturities was divergent. Ultra - long - term treasury bond futures tumbled, while other maturities weakened slightly, and the long - term trend did not show an obvious inflection point. Negative factors such as the new regulations on public fund sales, year - end policy expectations, central bank bond - buying scale, and regulatory investigations led to concentrated profit - taking and early liquidation, increasing market volatility, especially in the more speculative maturities. The main institutional holders of ultra - long - term treasury bonds had insufficient buying willingness or limited capabilities. On Friday, ultra - long - term bonds stabilized slightly but had weak rebound momentum [4]. - The table shows the closing price, weekly change rate, weekly trading volume, change in weekly trading volume, weekly open interest, and change in weekly open interest of various treasury bond futures contracts [5]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents data on open - market operations (quantity and price), medium - term lending facility (quantity and price), reverse repurchase rate, and various interest rates such as deposit - type pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, and bond - pledged repurchase rates, as well as data on MLF maturity volume, policy rates, and market rates, and also shows the trends of treasury bond yields, treasury bond term spreads, US treasury bond yields, and US treasury bond term spreads [10][12][18][29][34][37] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report provides data on treasury bond futures basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts [44][52][59][65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in an oscillating range, waiting for a driver to break through the position. The iron ore futures price has dropped as expected, and the coking coal futures price has broken through the position and hit a new low. It is necessary to pay attention to the guidance of important meetings in December [3]. - The steel market is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, inventory, etc. Currently, the supply - demand structure is relatively balanced in the short term, but there are structural differentiations and regional contradictions. The coking coal and coke market is affected by downstream demand and supply - side factors, with prices under pressure [5][69]. - The iron ore market is expected to see continued inventory accumulation due to weakening demand and stable supply, and the price is difficult to break through the upward range [118]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: The molten iron output continued to decline, with a decrease of 2.38 to 232.3wt in the current week. The daily consumption of scrap steel decreased slightly month - on - month, and was lower than the level in 2023. After entering December, the production profit of steel mills improved slightly compared with November [5]. - **Demand**: From the perspective of industrial data, the supply - demand structure is statically balanced, and dynamically shows a trend of weakening supply and demand, with the decline in supply greater than that in demand. From the perspective of market perception, the demand is basically around the rigid - demand level, and speculative demand is light. The demand for medium - plate is stable, the cold - rolled demand has slightly improved, the apparent demand for building materials has shown a seasonal decline, and the inventory - to - sales ratios of hot - rolled and cold - rolled products are under great pressure [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products is still steadily decreasing, which may be mainly due to the stable decline in steel production. The inventory - to - sales ratios of rebar and wire rod have changed from improvement to stability, while those of hot - rolled and cold - rolled products are under great pressure, and the medium - plate inventory is healthy [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of hot - rolled coils has slightly declined. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 93, and the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is - 20 [5]. - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills has slightly rebounded, but the profitability level is still low. The profitability rate of steel mills is 36.36%, with a week - on - week change of + 1.3% [5]. - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that of rebar, which is more suitable for cash - and - carry arbitrage. From an industrial perspective, the production profit of steel mills is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is neutral [5]. - **Macro and Risk Preference**: This week is important and will be a key week for the macro - trading expectations of December. There will be a game on the new round of interest - rate cut expectations in the United States, and important domestic meetings such as the Central Economic Work Conference and a Politburo meeting at the end of the year [5]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude. In the short term, the market is in an oscillating range. It is necessary to wait for the implementation of the production - reduction logic and then observe the start of the winter - storage replenishment drive. It is advisable to focus on the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities of hot - rolled coils [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Arbitrage: None for now. Cash - and - carry: Pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities of hot - rolled coils [6]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The supply and demand of steel have both declined. This week, the apparent demand for five major steel products is 864.17 (- 23.83), and the output is 828.95 (- 26.76). The demand shows a seasonal performance, the supply is declining rapidly, and the inventory is being depleted quickly, but the absolute inventory value is high, and the industrial contradictions are not prominent. The profitability rate of steel mills has rebounded month - on - month, and the molten iron output has continued to decline. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills this week is 232.30 (- 2.38), and the profitability rate of steel mills is 36.36% (+ 1.30%) [69]. - **Supply of Coking Coal**: The domestic coal - mine production maintains a low level, and large mines still have the intention to reduce production in the later period. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal remains high, and the inventory in the supervision area has continued to accumulate and is close to 3 million tons. The quotation of overseas coal has continued to rise. As of December 4, the CFR quotation of Australian Peak Downs coal is 221.45 US dollars (+ 5.6), and the CFR quotation of first - line prime coking coal is 205.5 US dollars (+ 0.5) [69]. - **Supply of Coke**: The supply of coke has rebounded. This week, the daily average coke output is 111.1 (+ 1.1), the coking profit is 30 (- 17). The price - reduction rhythm is slow, the price of raw coal has fallen in advance, the coking profit remains at a good level, and the supply of coke has continued to recover rapidly [69]. - **Inventory**: The middle and lower reaches have continued to slow down their procurement, and the upstream has continued to accumulate inventory. The total inventory has continued to increase, and the corresponding price has been under downward pressure [69]. - **Basis/Spread**: The first - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and the market still has expectations for subsequent price cuts. After the implementation, the warehouse - receipt cost is 1700, the port trade quotation has fallen in advance, and the converted warehouse - receipt cost is 1600. The futures price around 1550 reflects the expectation of four - round price cuts. The warehouse - receipt cost of Mongolian coal is around 1100, but several near - month contracts are affected by the difficulty of handling long - position deliveries, and are basically below 1000 near the delivery time [69]. - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 36.36% (+ 1.30%), and the coking profit is 30 (- 17) [69]. - **Summary**: The Black Chain Index rose first and then fell this week. By Friday, the downward pressure on commodities increased, and many varieties began to accelerate their decline. The coking coal futures broke through the position at night and hit a new low. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of steel have both declined, the inventory is being depleted quickly, but the industrial contradictions are not prominent. Coking coal prices have continued to weaken due to the slowdown in downstream replenishment. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see attitude, and it is not recommended to chase short positions even if the position is broken [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see. Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [69]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The current shipment volume has rebounded by 21.1 tons per day to 4.67 million tons per day month - on - month. Among them, the shipment volume from Australia has rebounded by 38.4 tons per day, that from Brazil has declined by 34.1 tons per day, and that from non - mainstream mines has rebounded by 16.4 tons per day to 1.024 million tons per day. The arrival volume in China has rebounded by 31.4 tons per day, with the arrival volume from Australia increasing by 21.2 tons per day, that from Brazil increasing by 6.6 tons per day, and that from non - mainstream sources increasing by 3.6 tons per day [118]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of steel mills has slightly declined to 2.323 million tons (- 2.38). The main reason for the weakening demand is the maintenance of steel mills. The profit ratio of steel mills has slightly rebounded, but has declined by 1.3% month - on - month to 36.36%. The port inventory has increased by 898,900 tons and exceeded the level of the same period last year. The output of five major steel products has significantly declined, mainly due to rebar. Rebar still maintains a rhythm of low output, low apparent demand, and slight inventory depletion. The output of hot - rolled coils has slightly declined, and the inventory is stable, but the slope has weakened, and the overall inventory far exceeds the seasonal level [118]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 47 ports has increased by 898,900 tons month - on - month. Under the situation of stable supply and weakening demand, the inventory will continue to accumulate slightly [118]. - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills has continued to decline, which has begun to gradually affect the molten iron output [118]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is neutral. After oscillating at the upper edge of the range, the iron ore price has declined. Fundamentally, the short - term arrival volume of iron ore has rebounded, and the subsequent shipment volume will remain stable, with no major unexpected fluctuations. In the medium term, the inventory will continue to accumulate under the pressure of molten iron production [118]. - **Summary**: It is expected that the subsequent fluctuations will mainly come from the production reduction of steel mills due to the decline in the profitability rate of steel mills. Under the influence of supply and demand, the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise. Under the inventory pressure, it is difficult for the iron ore price to break through the upward range, and the previous short positions can be held [118]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions. Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [118].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's procurement demand supports the US market, and the domestic market is expected to be range - bound in the short term. Attention should be paid to South American weather. Without significant weather problems, the new - crop discount is expected to be under pressure in December and January due to the expected bumper harvest in Brazil, and the M05 contract is expected to be weak. The spread between M03 and M05 is expected to be in a long spread position, with the risk being the domestic reserve release situation [9]. - In terms of supply, the USDA's current forecast for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is a yield of 53 bushels per acre and an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). The US soybean yield may be further revised down due to less rainfall in the production areas from August to September, and there is uncertainty in export adjustments. Attention should be paid to the results of the December USDA supply - demand report. The forecast for Brazil's new - crop production in the 2025/26 season is 177.6 million tons. As of November 29th, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 88%. As of November 26th, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting progress reached 36%. In December and January, domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to seasonally reduce inventory, and there is uncertainty in domestic soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year [8][9]. - In terms of demand, livestock and poultry have maintained a high inventory in the short term, and capacity reduction is not obvious, supporting the demand for soybean meal. However, the breeding and slaughtering sectors are currently in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of live pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness. Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal have been normal, and the提货 performance has been good [9]. - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level compared to the same period in history. The reduction of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the pressure on spot supply is still high. It is expected that the inventory will be reduced more rapidly in December and January. This week, the number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has increased slightly [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of the main soybean meal contract in Zhangjiagang on December 5th was 24. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in different regions (Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, etc.) and the basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong are also provided, along with the spread data such as M1 - M5, M1 - RM1, RM1 - 5, and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [4][5]. 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans in 2025, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the crushing profit on the futures market are presented. The inventory data of soybeans at Chinese ports, the inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills, the number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises, and the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills are also included [5][7]. 3.3开机 and Pressing Situation - The data on the operating rate and soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are provided [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 产能退出不及预期，盘面价格震荡偏弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-08 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 PVC:产能退出不及预期 ，盘面价格震荡偏弱 影响因素 驱动 主要逻辑 供给 偏空 （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，基本面难改供大于求格局，PVC供应受检修影响小幅上升，市场需求维持平淡。（2）本周PVC生产企业产能利用 率在79.89%环比减少0.33%，同比减少1.68%；其中电石法在82.65%环比减少0.96%，同比增加1.95%，乙烯法在73.44%环比增加1.06%，同比减少10.61%。 需求 偏空 （1）下游需求进入淡季，下游开工下滑。（2）国内PVC管材样本企业开工在 ...