Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [7] Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices experienced a slight decline, while the prices of acrylic acid and coal tar saw significant increases. The report emphasizes a focus on leading companies with strong alpha that are less correlated with oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy. It also highlights the importance of domestic demand and opportunities in new material domestic substitution, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring farming peak [9][17]. Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Prices Information - As of May 23, Brent oil price decreased by 0.96% to $64.78 per barrel. The report notes that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels to 443.2 million barrels, with gasoline inventories rising by 800,000 barrels and distillate inventories by 600,000 barrels [13][14]. - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were acrylic acid (up 10.8%), coal tar (up 7.6%), and anthracene oil (up 5.7%). The largest declines were seen in liquid chlorine (down 16.7%), formic acid (down 8.0%), and tetrachloroethylene (down 7.2%) [9][14]. Price and Spread Changes - The report indicates that the top three products with the largest weekly price increases were acrylic acid (up 10.8%), coal tar (up 7.6%), and anthracene oil (up 5.7%). The largest monthly price increases were liquid chlorine (up 40.2%), but it also noted significant declines in formic acid (down 29.2%) [9][15]. - The top three products with the largest weekly spread increases were MTP spread (up 35.0%), acrylic acid spread (up 33.2%), and BDO spread (up 29.5%). The report also highlights significant declines in the spreads of acrylic acid butyl ester (down 710.1%) and R410a spread (down 100.0%) [9][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment: - Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy): Core product MDI is seeing profit improvements, with new petrochemical and new material projects coming online [17]. - Huangma Technology (603181, Buy): A leading special polyether company that has entered a growth phase again [17]. - Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035, Buy): A rare company with a global layout for formulation registration and sales channels [17]. - Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy): A leading company in the plant growth regulator sector [17]. - Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy): Core product prices are recovering alongside a decline in coal prices, leading to continuous improvement in spreads [17].

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 26 日 | | | 杨怡玲 | yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究结论 | | 1111111111 | 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 | | | | 邱蕊 | 021-63325888*5091 | | ⚫ | 基金市场热点跟踪：1.卡塔尔投资局受让华夏基金 10%股份：5 月 22 日，证监会网 | | qiurui@orientsec.com.cn | | | 站发布关于核准华夏基金管理有限公司变更持股 5%以上股东的批复，证监会核准卡 | | 执业证书编号：S0860519020001 | | | 塔尔控股有限责任公司成为华夏基金管理有限公司持股 5%以上股东；对卡塔尔控股 | | 香港证监会牌照：BSW115 | | | 有限责任公司依法受让华夏基金 2380 万元人民币出资（占注册资本比例 10%）无异 | 陶文启 | taowenqi@orientsec.com.cn | | | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524080003 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [7] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices experienced a slight decline this week, with a focus on leading companies that have strong alpha and are less correlated with oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy. The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and opportunities in new material domestic substitution, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring farming peak [17][9][5]. Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Prices Information - As of May 23, Brent oil price decreased by 0.96% to $64.78 per barrel. The increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventory and OPEC+ production expectations contributed to this decline. As of May 16, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory was 443.2 million barrels, with a weekly increase of 1.3 million barrels [13][2]. - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were acrylic acid (up 10.8%), coal tar (up 7.6%), and anthracene oil (up 5.7%). The largest declines were in liquid chlorine (down 16.7%), formic acid (down 8.0%), and tetrachloroethylene (down 7.2%) [14][9]. Price Spread Changes - The top three price spread increases this week were MTP spread (up 35.0%), acrylic acid spread (up 33.2%), and BDO spread (up 29.5%). The largest declines were in acrylic acid butyl ester spread (down 710.1%), R410a spread (down 100.0%), and lithium hexafluorophosphate spread (down 20.7%) [19][9]. - Monthly, the top three price spread increases were in styrene (up 192.7%), oil head ethylene glycol spread (up 130.1%), and MTO spread (up 119.6%). The largest declines were in acrylic acid butyl ester spread (down 2675.6%), BDO (phenol method) spread (down 370.9%), and R410a spread (down 100.0%) [19][9]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy): Core product MDI shows recent profit improvement, with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects [17]. - Huangma Technology (603181, Buy): A leading special polyether company that has entered a growth phase again [17]. - Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035, Buy): A rare company with global formulation registration and sales channels [17]. - Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy): A leading domestic differentiated formulation company in the plant growth regulator industry [17]. - Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy): Core product price recovery combined with falling coal prices leads to continuous improvement in spreads [17].

食品饮料行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 布局饮料啤酒旺季，关注新品类催化 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 推荐板块及个股：酒饮料中，关注进入备货与投资旺季的饮料及啤酒板块。 啤酒：推荐 U8 强势成长、国改盈利能力提升、新发全国汽水大单品布局"啤酒+汽 水"，盈利改善有望超预期的燕京啤酒(000729，买入)； 饮料：推荐传统鸡尾酒+香精香料业务有望复苏超市场预期，且威士忌第二增长曲线迎密 集催化的百润股份(002568，增持)。推荐东鹏特饮大单品稳健增长，第二曲线补水啦高 增，新品果之茶有望超越补水啦增长曲线的东鹏饮料(605499，买入)。 风险提示 消费复苏进度不及预期、区域经济增速放缓、食品安全事件风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 食品饮料行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 26 日 看好（维持） | 叶书怀 | yeshuhuai@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517090002 | | 燕斯娴 | yansixian1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524080004 | | 白酒核心单品 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The upcoming launch of the Huawei brand vehicle, the Zun Jie S800, is expected to enhance market competition in the luxury car segment, leveraging Huawei's strengths in technology and branding [11][40] - The report suggests continued focus on the Huawei supply chain, autonomous driving technology leaders, and certain state-owned enterprises that may reverse their current challenges through reforms and collaborations [2][13] - The report highlights strong order volumes for the Wanjie M8 and M9 models, indicating a positive trend for the Wanjie brand [11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 1.8%, ranking second among 29 primary industries [15] - The passenger vehicle segment saw a significant increase of 5.48%, while the automotive parts sector experienced a slight decline of 0.70% [15] Sales Tracking - From May 1-18, 2025, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 858,000 units, marking an 18% year-on-year increase, while retail sales reached 932,000 units, up 12% year-on-year [23] - Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 9.326 million units, reflecting a 12% increase compared to the previous year [23] Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, Changan Automobile, and several others in the automotive and parts sectors, with specific buy ratings for some [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies involved in the Huawei supply chain and humanoid robotics [2][13] Industry Developments - The report notes the upcoming testing of Tesla's Robotaxi project, which will operate without safety drivers, showcasing advancements in autonomous driving technology [12] - Figure Robotics has achieved a significant milestone by completing 20-hour shifts in BMW's production line, indicating progress in robotics for manufacturing [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The time point for the certificate of deposit (CD) interest rate to return to a downward trend may be earlier than market expectations. Despite the existence of factors such as increased supply of interest - bearing bonds, deposit rate cuts, and the end - of - June factor that cause marginal tightening pressure on the capital market, the market has made preparations. The outflow of bank deposits due to rate cuts may increase the demand for CD allocation, and the CD issuance rhythm and bank behavior also support the earlier return of CD rates to a downward trend. If so, it will also bring a repair opportunity for the bond market interest rate to decline steeply [4][7][9]. Summary According to the Directory 1 Fixed Income Market Observation and Thinking - Market concerns about the upward risk of CD interest rates have resurfaced, mainly due to increased supply of interest - bearing bonds, deposit rate cuts increasing bank liability pressure, and the end - of - June factor. However, the market has prepared, and the CD interest rate may return to a downward trend earlier than expected [4][7]. - Deposit rate cuts may lead to bank deposit outflows, but the funds are likely to enter fixed - income asset management products, increasing CD allocation demand and potentially pushing CD rates down [4][7]. - From the perspective of CD issuance rhythm, if banks expect tight funds at the beginning of the year and increase CD financing, the CD rate may decline earlier when facing the end - of - June factor [4][8]. - Bank behavior shows that the slowdown in the expansion pressure of inter - bank liabilities relative to assets helps stabilize CD rates [4][8]. 2 Fixed Income Market Outlook 2.1 This Week's Attention and Important Data Release - This week, China will release the official manufacturing PMI for May, the US will release the core PCE for April, and the eurozone will release the industrial sentiment index for May [17][18]. 2.2 This Week's Interest - Bearing Bond Supply Scale Estimation - This week, it is expected to issue 328.2 billion yuan of interest - bearing bonds, which is at a relatively low level compared to the same period. There are no treasury bond issuance plans, 39 local bonds are planned to be issued with a scale of 228.2 billion yuan, and the actual issuance scale of policy - based financial bonds is expected to be around 100 billion yuan [18]. 3 Interest - Bearing Bond Review and Outlook 3.1 Central Bank's Injection and Capital Market Conditions - The central bank's reverse repurchase volume increased, with a total injection of 946 billion yuan, and the MLF roll - over was 500 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 120 billion yuan in the open market after considering maturities. The capital market interest rate fluctuated more, with the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase falling, and the overnight proportion averaging around 87%. The capital interest rate declined but still had large intraday fluctuations [23][24]. - The CD issuance scale rebounded, and the interest rate increased. From May 19th to May 25th, the issuance scale was 714.3 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 738.3 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 24 billion yuan. The issuance and interest rates of different types of banks and different maturities also changed [30][31]. 3.2 The Bond Market Continues to Rise After Exhausting Positive Factors - Last week, long - term interest rates mainly rose, while medium - and short - term interest rates continued to decline slightly. Factors included large intraday fluctuations in capital interest rates, strong profit - taking sentiment after the dual cuts, and a significant increase in the issuance price of ultra - long - term primary treasury bonds. On May 23rd, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds changed by - 0.2bp, - 0.9bp, - 1.0bp, - 1.6bp, and 3.3bp respectively compared to the previous week [40]. 4 High - Frequency Data - On the production side, most of the operating rates declined, such as the blast furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and petroleum asphalt operating rate, while the PTA operating rate increased. The average daily crude steel production in early May decreased year - on - year [49]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales remained positive, land trading volume increased, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased, with a year - on - year growth rate of about - 9%. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by 7.2% and 0.2% respectively [49]. - In terms of prices, crude oil prices declined, copper and aluminum prices diverged, coal prices diverged, and the prices of building materials, cement, and glass in the middle reaches also declined. Vegetable and fruit prices in the downstream consumption sector declined slightly, while pork prices remained flat [50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - The upcoming launch of the Huawei brand vehicle, the Zun Jie S800, is expected to enhance market competition in the luxury car segment, leveraging Huawei's strengths in technology and branding [11][40] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Huawei supply chain, autonomous driving technology leaders, and state-owned enterprises in the automotive sector for potential investment opportunities [2][14] - The report highlights significant order volumes for the Wanjie M8 and M9 models, indicating a positive trend in brand recovery and sales growth [11][12] Industry Overview - The automotive industry is experiencing stable revenue growth, with first-quarter performance exceeding average levels [7] - The automotive sector's performance is reflected in the stock market, with the automotive industry index showing a 1.8% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.2% [15] - The passenger vehicle segment has shown a notable increase of 5.48%, while the automotive parts sector has slightly declined by 0.70% [15] Sales Tracking - From May 1 to May 18, 2025, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 858,000 units, marking an 18% year-on-year increase [23] - Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 9.326 million units, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth [23] - The retail sales for the same period were 932,000 units, a 12% increase compared to the previous year [23] Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies for investment include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, Changan Automobile, and others, with specific buy ratings assigned to several of them [2][14] - The report suggests continuous monitoring of companies involved in the Huawei supply chain, humanoid robotics, and autonomous driving technology [2][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 42.24 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 24 times the earnings per share for 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company is entering a harvest period for innovative drugs, although its main business faces short-term pressure due to the impact of centralized procurement on the infusion and generic drug segments [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 21.81 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth of 1.67%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.94 billion CNY, up 19.53% [9]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline to 4.39 billion CNY, down 29.42%, and a net profit of 584 million CNY, down 43.07%, primarily due to high base effects from the previous year [9]. - The ADC platform is expected to yield significant commercial results, with key products like SKB264 receiving regulatory approval for multiple indications [9]. - The antibiotic supply-demand structure remains stable, with synthetic biology products contributing to revenue growth [9]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected financials indicate a revenue increase from 21.45 billion CNY in 2023 to 29.19 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 2.46 billion CNY in 2023 to 3.62 billion CNY in 2027, with a notable increase in 2024 [4]. - Earnings per share are projected to be 1.76 CNY in 2025, with a gradual increase to 2.27 CNY by 2027 [4][2]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 50% to 52.7% over the forecast period, indicating a solid profitability outlook [4].

投资策略 | 定期报告 进入政策观察期 ——策略周报 0525 研究结论 风险提示 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 张志鹏 | zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 | | 关税降级提振市场风险偏好：——策略周 | 2025-05-19 | | --- | --- | | 报 0518 | | | 逆周期政策提振市场信心：——策略周报 | 2025-05-12 | | 0512 | | | 物来顺应：——策略周报 0505 | 2025-05-06 | | 以稳为主：——策略周报 0428 | 2025-04-28 | | 缺乏稳定一致预期：——策略周报 0421 | 2025-04-20 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 ...

4 月电新出口整体企稳 核心观点 ⚫ 4 月电新出口整体企稳，逆变器、变压器和电表均呈现环比增长态势，风机出口同 比维系呈现高速增长。 组件：4 月出口 161.58 亿元，环比-1.07%，同比-20.33%。1-4 月累计出口 607.50 亿元，累计同比-28.29%。 逆变器：4 月出口 58.17 亿元，环比+28.17%，同比+17.95%。1-4 月累计出口 180.19 亿元，累计同比+9.94%。 变压器：4 月出口 47.77 亿元，环比+9.27%，同比+33.86%。1-4 月累计出口 178.29 亿元，累计同比+38.30%。 电表：4 月出口 9.80 亿元，环比+28%，同比+34%。1-4 月累计出口 35.32 亿元， 累计同比+14.82%。 风机：4 月出口 1.34 亿美元，环比-7.84%，同比+49.31%。1-4 月累计出口 4.43 亿美元，累计同比+43.84%。 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 建议关注德业股份(605117，买入)、阳光电源(300274，未评级)、禾迈股份 (688032，买入)、三星医疗(601567，未评级)、海兴电力(603556，未评级 ...