Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1] Core Views - The company is a global leader in ADC and XDC CRDMO, benefiting from strong growth in the ADC sector and unique competitive advantages as an industry leader [5][20] - The ADC market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of $64.7 billion by 2030, driven by advancements in treatment strategies and new drug approvals [9][43] - The company is developing a comprehensive one-stop service platform that covers the entire process from discovery to GMP production, which is expected to accelerate project timelines and enhance growth potential [9][20] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue and net profit have shown rapid growth, with a CAGR of 180% and 121% from 2020 to 2023, respectively [20] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at HKD 5,470.58 million, HKD 7,169.95 million, and HKD 9,202.70 million, with corresponding net profits of HKD 1,257.14 million, HKD 1,695.86 million, and HKD 2,302.43 million [8][6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 26.35% in 2023 to 34.00% by 2027, while net margin is projected to rise from 13.35% to 25.02% over the same period [8] Market Position - The company holds a 9.8% global market share in the ADC sector, ranking second globally and first domestically, with a significant increase in overseas revenue contribution [68] - The ADC outsourcing service market is projected to grow from $1.5 billion in 2022 to over $11 billion by 2030, indicating a strong demand for the company's services [64][68]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in ADC and XDC CRDMO, with a market share of 9.8% globally and ranked second worldwide, benefiting from the technological and capacity advantages of its major shareholders [5][68]. - The ADC market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected CAGR of 30.7% from 2024 to 2030, driven by the increasing adoption of ADCs in cancer treatment [9][43]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue and profit growth, with a forecasted revenue of HKD 5,470.58 million in 2025, representing a 35% year-on-year increase [8]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of HKD 1.05, HKD 1.41, and HKD 1.91 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating strong growth potential [6]. - The target price is set at HKD 47.81, based on DCF valuation, reflecting the company's leadership position in the ADC CRDMO sector and its robust project pipeline [6]. Company Overview - The company was established in 2013 and went public in 2023, focusing on the development and manufacturing of ADCs and XDCs [14]. - The core management team has extensive experience in the biopharmaceutical industry, enhancing the company's operational capabilities [18]. Revenue Growth and Profitability - The company has experienced a CAGR of 180% in revenue and 121% in net profit from 2020 to 2023, with a projected revenue growth of 91% and net profit growth of 277% in 2024 [20]. - The gross margin and net margin are expected to improve significantly due to enhanced operational efficiency and increased capacity utilization [23]. Market Dynamics - The ADC market is projected to reach USD 6.47 billion by 2030, with a significant shift towards frontline treatments and combination therapies with immunotherapy [43][48]. - The demand for ADC outsourcing services is expected to grow, with the global ADC outsourcing market projected to exceed USD 11 billion by 2030 [64].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Dividend Impact Prediction Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to predict the impact of dividends on index futures pricing by estimating the dividend points for each contract and incorporating them into the theoretical pricing framework[7][10][20] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Estimate Component Stocks' Net Profit**: Use annual reports, quick reports, earnings warnings, or analysts' forecasts to estimate net profits[23][24] 2. **Calculate Pre-Tax Total Dividends**: Based on the assumption that the dividend payout ratio remains unchanged, calculate the total dividend amount as: $$ \text{Estimated Dividend Amount} = \text{Estimated Net Profit} \times \text{Dividend Payout Ratio} $$ If no dividends were distributed in the previous year, assume no dividends this year[28] 3. **Calculate Dividend Impact on Index**: - Dividend Yield: $$ \text{Dividend Yield} = \frac{\text{Tax-Adjusted Total Dividend}}{\text{Latest Market Value}} $$ - Dividend Points: $$ \text{Dividend Points Impact} = \text{Stock Weight} \times \text{Dividend Yield} $$ - Adjust stock weights using the formula: $$ w_{it} = \frac{w_{i0} \times (1 + R)}{\sum_{1}^{n} w_{i0} \times (1 + R)} $$ where \( w_{i0} \) is the initial weight, and \( R \) is the return over the period[25] 4. **Predict Contract Impact**: Aggregate all dividend impacts before the contract's delivery date to estimate the total dividend effect on the futures contract[30] 5. **Theoretical Pricing**: - For discrete dividends: $$ F_t = (S_t - D)(1 + r) $$ where \( D \) is the present value of dividends, and \( r \) is the risk-free rate[33] - For continuous dividends: $$ F_t = S_t e^{(r-d)(T-t)} $$ where \( d \) is the annualized dividend yield[34] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to incorporate dividend forecasts into futures pricing, enhancing accuracy in predicting contract price movements[7][10][20] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Dividend Impact Prediction Model - **Dividend Points for June Contracts**: - SSE 50: 17.28 - CSI 300: 20.75 - CSI 500: 35.79 - CSI 1000: 32.06[7][10][15] - **Annualized Hedging Costs (Excluding Dividends)**: - SSE 50: 0.76% - CSI 300: 5.14% - CSI 500: 12.79% - CSI 1000: 18.63%[7][10][15] - **Remaining Impact of Dividends on June Contracts**: - SSE 50: 0.64% - CSI 300: 0.53% - CSI 500: 0.63% - CSI 1000: 0.54%[15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anhui Heli, with a target price of 17.21 CNY [5][2] Core Views - The company faces high costs that are squeezing some profits, but its internationalization and industrial chain layout continue to inject development momentum [1] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 17.33 billion CNY, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to be 1.32 billion CNY, reflecting a minimal growth of 0.2% [10] - The company is expanding its overseas strategy, with significant growth in exports and overseas revenue, which accounted for 40% of total revenue in 2024 [10] - The company is enhancing its industrial chain layout by investing in smart logistics and reducing related transactions through acquisitions [10] Financial Summary - Revenue and profit figures for 2023 and projections for 2024-2027 are as follows: - 2023 Revenue: 17.156 billion CNY, 2024 Revenue: 17.325 billion CNY (1% growth) - 2024 Net Profit: 1.32 billion CNY, 2025 Net Profit: 1.442 billion CNY (9.3% growth) [4][10] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 23.46%, an increase of 2.84 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is projected at 7.6% [4][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.48 CNY, with a gradual increase to 2.02 CNY by 2027 [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The recovery of Blizzard games is expected to drive growth, with new mobile games like "Marvel Secret Wars" and "Destiny Stars" anticipated to launch [3] - The company's projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 36 billion, 38.1 billion, and 41.5 billion CNY respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment in gross margin and investment income [3] - The target price is set at 210.13 HKD / 193.03 CNY, indicating a potential upside from the current price [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the company reported total revenue of 103,468 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 7.23% [4] - The operating profit for 2023A was 27,709 million CNY, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 41.17% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A was 29,417 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44.64% [4] - The gross margin for 2023A was 60.95%, with a projected increase to 64.59% by 2027E [4] - The net profit margin for 2023A was 28.43%, expected to rise to 31.00% by 2027E [4] Revenue Breakdown - In Q1 2025, total revenue reached 28,829 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [9] - The revenue from games and related value-added services in Q1 2025 was 24,048 million CNY, up 12.1% year-on-year [9] - Mobile game revenue in Q1 2025 was 15,359 million CNY, down 4.4% year-on-year, while PC game revenue surged by 85% to 8,088 million CNY [9] Future Projections - The company expects Q2 2025 mobile game revenue to face less year-on-year pressure, while PC game revenue is anticipated to remain strong [9] - The projected revenue for 2025E is 114,089 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 8.35% [10] - The estimated operating profit for 2025E is 36,475 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 23.29% [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $1.75 per ADS [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to increase its focus on short dramas, which is anticipated to drive a rebound in ROI in the long term. The GAAP net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 396 million, 1.647 billion, and 2.347 billion CNY respectively [2]. - The report adjusts the previous profit forecasts due to changes in the competitive landscape for long videos in 2025 [2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 31.873 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 9.91%. However, a decline of 8.31% is expected in 2024 [4]. - The GAAP net profit for 2023 is estimated at 1.925 billion CNY, with a significant decline of 1513.58% year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 27.52% in 2023 to 23.78% in 2025, before recovering to 26.32% in 2026 and 26.74% in 2027 [4]. - The company’s operating income is projected to be 2.989 billion CNY in 2023, decreasing to 1.107 billion CNY in 2025, but expected to rise to 2.188 billion CNY by 2027 [4]. Revenue Breakdown - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.186 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 9.35%. The membership service revenue was 4.399 billion CNY, down 8.3% year-on-year [10][11]. - Advertising revenue for Q1 2025 was 1.328 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.4% [10]. - Content distribution revenue was reported at 629 million CNY for Q1 2025, down 32.3% year-on-year [10]. Market Performance - The stock price as of May 22, 2025, was $1.69, with a 52-week high of $4.92 and a low of $1.50 [5]. - The company has a market capitalization of $16.27 billion [5]. Comparative Valuation - The adjusted average P/E ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 31X, indicating a valuation benchmark for the company [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see growth driven by the recovery of Blizzard games and the upcoming launches of mobile games such as "Marvel Secret Wars" and "Destiny Stars" [3] - The profit forecast for the company from 2025 to 2027 is adjusted to 36 billion, 38.1 billion, and 41.5 billion CNY respectively, reflecting an increase in gross margin and investment income while reducing the sales expense ratio [3] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 103.468 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 7.23% [4] - Operating profit for 2023 is estimated at 27.709 billion CNY, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 41.17% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is forecasted at 29.417 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.64% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is expected to be 9.29 CNY [4] - The gross margin is projected to be 60.95% for 2023, with a gradual increase to 64.59% by 2027 [4] - The net margin is expected to be 28.43% in 2023, with a slight increase to 31.00% by 2027 [4] Revenue Breakdown - Total revenue for Q1 2025 is reported at 28.829 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4% [9] - Revenue from games and related value-added services in Q1 2025 is 24.048 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [9] - Mobile game revenue in Q1 2025 is 15.359 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year decline of 4.4% [9] - PC game revenue in Q1 2025 is 8.088 billion CNY, with a substantial year-on-year increase of 85% [9] Valuation - The target price for the company's stock is set at 210.13 HKD, with a current share price of 186.6 HKD [5] - The company is valued using a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) approach, with the gaming segment accounting for 94% of the total valuation [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $1.75 per ADS [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to increase its focus on short dramas, which is anticipated to drive a rebound in ROI in the long term. The GAAP net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 396 million, 1.647 billion, and 2.347 billion CNY respectively [2][4]. - The report indicates a downward adjustment in profit forecasts due to changes in the competitive landscape for long videos in 2025 [2]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The company's revenue is projected to decline from 31.873 billion CNY in 2023 to 29.103 billion CNY in 2025, with a slight recovery to 30.578 billion CNY in 2026 and 31.343 billion CNY in 2027 [4][14]. - **Net Profit**: The GAAP net profit is expected to drop significantly to 396 million CNY in 2025, followed by a recovery to 1.647 billion CNY in 2026 and 2.347 billion CNY in 2027 [4][14]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to decrease to 0.41 CNY in 2025, then rise to 1.71 CNY in 2026 and 2.44 CNY in 2027 [4][14]. - **Profit Margins**: The gross margin is expected to decline from 27.52% in 2023 to 23.78% in 2025, before recovering to 26.32% in 2026 and 26.74% in 2027 [4][14]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The P/E ratio is projected to be 30 in 2025, decreasing to 7 in 2026 and 5 in 2027, indicating a potential undervaluation in the coming years [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's net profit is expected to grow significantly due to the recovery of Blizzard games and the anticipated launch of new mobile games such as "Marvel Secret Wars" and "Destiny Stars" [3] - The profit forecast for the company from 2025 to 2027 is adjusted to 36 billion, 38.1 billion, and 41.5 billion CNY respectively, reflecting an increase in gross margin and investment income while reducing the sales expense ratio [3] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 103.468 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 7.23% [4] - Operating profit for 2023 is estimated at 27.709 billion CNY, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 41.17% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is forecasted at 29.417 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.64% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is expected to be 9.29 CNY [4] - The gross margin is projected to be 60.95% for 2023, with a gradual increase to 64.59% by 2027 [4] - The net margin is expected to be 28.43% in 2023, with a slight increase to 31.00% by 2027 [4] Revenue Breakdown - Total revenue from games and related value-added services is expected to reach 240.5 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [9] - Mobile game revenue is projected at 153.6 billion CNY in Q1 2025, showing a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.5% [9] - PC game revenue is expected to be 80.9 billion CNY in Q1 2025, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 85% [9] Valuation - The target price for the company's stock is set at 210.13 HKD, equivalent to 193.03 CNY, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method [3][11] - The company is valued at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 for 2025, decreasing to 13 by 2027 [4][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company experienced a slight revenue increase in 2024, with total revenue reaching 17.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1% [10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is projected at 1.32 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [10] - The report highlights the company's ongoing international expansion and strategic investments in the supply chain, which are expected to drive future growth [10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 17.16 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [4] - The company forecasts revenue growth to 19.02 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 9.8% increase [4] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 23.46%, up 2.84 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected at 8.49%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The company plans to achieve a net profit of 1.799 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.3% from 2024 [2][4] Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company is set at 17.21 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6 times for comparable companies in 2025 [2] - The current share price is 16.6 yuan, indicating potential upside [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its overseas strategy, with significant investments in establishing manufacturing bases in regions like Thailand [10] - The report notes the successful opening of multiple overseas centers, which are expected to improve operational resilience [10] - The company is also focusing on mergers and acquisitions to strengthen its position in the intelligent logistics sector [10]