2025 年 9 月 1 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 重点交流 【公用事业】盈利水平边际改善，同业竞争解决持续兑现——国网信通（600131.SH） 2025 年中报点评(买入) 公司发布 2025 年中报。2025 年上半年公司实现营收 35.25 亿元，同比-4.55%（调 整后）；归母净利润 2.66 亿元，同比-11.01%（调整后）。我们预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润为 8.44/10.25/12.53 亿元，折合 EPS 分别为 0.70/0.85/1.04 元，对应 PE 为 26/21/18X。我们维持 "买入"评级。 总量研究 【宏观】8 月经济运行的三点特征——2025 年 8 月 PMI 点评 8 月制造业 PMI 小幅回升，非制造业活动加快扩张，关注三点特征：一是，尽管"抢 出口"效应消退，但受益于出口多元化、新兴市场需求提振影响，8 月出口动能趋稳， 叠加极端天气扰动减弱，制造业产需活动回升。二是，"反内卷"推动价格指数继续 回升，预计 8 月起 PPI 同比增速将步入上行通道。三是，受资本市场活跃、暑期出行 热度较高、信息服务活动扩张带动，8 月服务业景气度明显 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Midea Group with a target price of 86.00 CNY, compared to the current price of 73.71 CNY [1]. Core Insights - Midea Group's H1 2025 results show a total revenue of 252.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 26.0 billion CNY, reflecting a 25% increase [5]. - The company continues to demonstrate strong operational quality, with a stable net profit margin that increased to 10.6% in H1 2025 [7]. - The report highlights robust growth in B-end business segments, particularly in new energy and industrial technology, with revenue growth rates of 29% and 24% respectively [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Midea Group's total revenue for Q2 2025 was 123.9 billion CNY, up 11% year-on-year, while net profit for the same period was 13.6 billion CNY, a 15% increase [5]. - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 25.6%, slightly down from the previous year, attributed to intense price competition in the domestic air conditioning market [7]. Business Segments - The C-end business remains stable, while the B-end business shows impressive growth. Air conditioning sales in Q1 and Q2 2025 saw domestic sales increase by 3% and 20% respectively, while exports grew by 23% and declined by 24% [6]. - The report notes that Midea's air conditioning prices fell by 18% and 9% in Q1 and Q2 2025, respectively, due to competitive pricing [6]. Profitability and Cash Flow - Midea Group's net profit margin improved to 11.3% in Q2 2025, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 37.3 billion CNY, an 11% increase year-on-year [7]. - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 44.4 billion CNY, 48.9 billion CNY, and 53.6 billion CNY respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 13, 12, and 11 times [8]. Valuation and Forecast - The report emphasizes Midea Group's strong market position and operational efficiency, projecting continued growth driven by economic recovery and B-end business expansion [8]. - The estimated revenue for 2025 is 446.1 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 9.04% [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [5][7]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.498 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 12.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 105 million yuan, down 56.52% year-on-year [2]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a significant revenue drop of 31.37% year-on-year, attributed to ongoing pressure in traditional consumption scenarios such as business banquets and a slower market recovery pace [3]. - The company is actively adjusting its strategies, including "dual brands" and "one city, one policy," with expectations for sales recovery and a return to growth [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 539 million yuan, with a net profit of -85 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 251.25% [2][3]. - The sales gross margin for Q2 2025 was 74.42%, down 7.13 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by product mix changes and increased promotional expenses [4]. - Cash receipts from sales in Q2 2025 were 991 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.54%, indicating improved cash flow management [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been revised down to 1.071 billion yuan and 1.164 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a 27% reduction from previous estimates [5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected at 2.20, 2.39, and 2.56 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21, 20, and 18 times [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on inventory digestion and has slowed down its shipment pace due to higher-than-expected channel inventory levels post-Spring Festival [3]. - The revenue from high-end products in Q2 2025 was 454 million yuan, down 36.96% year-on-year, while mid-range products saw a revenue increase of 67.68% [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future investment returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.08 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.30%, and a net profit of 400 million yuan, down 27.40% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 519 million yuan, down 16.06%, with a net profit of 153 million yuan, down 48.66% year-on-year [1]. - New projects are performing well, while mature projects show stable operations. Notable performances include the Shanghai project turning profitable with a revenue of 65.82 million yuan and a net profit of 3.66 million yuan in the first half of 2025. The Xi'an project experienced good growth in visitor numbers, and the Guangdong project is undergoing upgrades with significant long-term growth potential [1][2]. - The company is focusing on light asset expansion and has signed two new light asset projects in Qingdao and Taizhou, which are expected to support future revenue growth. The company is also enhancing its core competencies through innovative marketing strategies and systematic content upgrades [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 65.72%, a decrease of 3.47 percentage points year-on-year. The operating profit margin was impacted by increased marketing expenditures and labor costs, leading to a net profit margin of 37.01%, down 9.74 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards to 1.053 billion yuan, 1.176 billion yuan, and 1.309 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease of 7.6%, 11.2%, and 8.8% from previous estimates [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.40 yuan, 0.45 yuan, and 0.50 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22, 20, and 18 [3][4]. - The company is expected to see a revenue growth rate of 6.30% in 2025, followed by 10.20% in 2026 and 7.30% in 2027 [4]. Market Data - The current stock price is 8.75 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 22.948 billion yuan. The stock has seen a 75.15% turnover rate over the past three months [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown operational improvement in Q2 2025, with governance structure optimization expected to gradually release reform benefits [1][8] - The company reported a revenue of 2.13 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 18.58%, and a net profit of 257 million yuan, down 26.56% [4][9] - The company is focusing on new retail as a strategic priority, with online business core categories growing over 60% [5][8] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, the revenue from soy sauce, chicken essence, cooking oil, and other products decreased by 16.68%, 21.98%, 49.39%, and 3.23% respectively, mainly due to intensified industry competition and inventory digestion [5] - Q2 2025 saw a revenue recovery in soy sauce (+6.39%) and other categories, with a narrowing decline compared to Q1 [5][6] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 39.05%, up 2.42 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material costs and lean management practices [7] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 12.05%, down 1.31 percentage points year-on-year [7] Governance and Strategy - The company completed a board restructuring in July 2025, emphasizing a "small steps, quick runs" incentive mechanism and a long-term operational philosophy [8] - The company is actively adjusting its operational pace and strategically reducing inventory, which may lead to short-term revenue declines but lays the groundwork for long-term health [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards to 692 million, 796 million, and 916 million yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease of 22.9%, 20.3%, and 16.7% from previous estimates [9] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 22, 19, and 16 for 2025-2027 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Qianhe Flavor Industry (603027.SH) with a current price of 12.33 CNY [1] Core Views - Qianhe Flavor Industry's H1 2025 revenue was 1.318 billion CNY, down 17.07% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 173 million CNY, down 30.81% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue was 487 million CNY, down 29.86% year-on-year, and net profit was 13 million CNY, down 86.66% year-on-year [5][6] - The company faced significant pressure on its core product categories, with soy sauce revenue at 839 million CNY (down 16.09%) and vinegar revenue at 159 million CNY (down 21.51%) in H1 2025. The decline in revenue was exacerbated in Q2 2025, with soy sauce and vinegar revenues down 31.06% and 35.40% respectively [6] - Despite short-term performance challenges, the company is advancing its long-term strategy, including the completion of a new production line with an annual capacity of 600,000 tons, which is expected to enhance efficiency and support future growth [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2025 gross margin was 36.58%, up 0.97 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw material costs. However, the period expense ratio increased to 21.46%, up 3.57 percentage points year-on-year, impacting net profit margin, which was 13.16%, down 2.61 percentage points year-on-year [7] - In Q2 2025, gross margin decreased to 32.64%, with net profit margin at 2.62%, down 11.15 percentage points year-on-year [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report projects a decline in net profit for 2025-2027, with estimates of 431 million CNY, 536 million CNY, and 623 million CNY respectively, reflecting downward adjustments of 24.4%, 15.3%, and 10.9% from previous forecasts [8][9] - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at 2.851 billion CNY, with a growth rate of -7.22% [9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on high-quality and healthy product offerings, launching premium products like Matsutake and Truffle soy sauces to optimize its product matrix [8] - The company continues to enhance its distributor network, with a total of 3,307 distributors by the end of Q2 2025, reflecting a net increase of 25 distributors [7]

Manufacturing Sector - August manufacturing PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 49.1%[2] - Production index rose to 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; new orders index increased to 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points[5] - Large enterprises' PMI improved significantly to 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, while small enterprises' PMI rose to 46.6%, up 0.2 percentage points; medium enterprises' PMI fell to 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points[5] Export and Import Trends - New export orders index rose to 47.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating stabilization in export momentum[20] - Import index increased to 48.0%, up 0.2 percentage points, reflecting ongoing production expansion[20] Price Indices - Raw material purchase price index rose to 53.3%, up 1.8 percentage points; factory price index increased to 49.1%, up 0.8 percentage points, indicating a potential upward trend in PPI[25] - Raw material inventory index increased to 48.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, while finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.8%, down 0.6 percentage points[25] Service Sector - Service sector business activity index rose to 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and higher than last year's 50.2%[29] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector increased to 57.0%, indicating positive market sentiment[29] Construction Sector - Construction sector business activity index fell by 1.5 percentage points to 49.1%, continuing a downward trend for two consecutive months[32] - The decline in construction activity is attributed to adverse weather conditions and reduced demand from real estate and infrastructure investments[32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its long-term development despite short-term performance pressures [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 16.743 billion yuan, down 18.45% year-on-year, and net profit of 5.069 billion yuan, down 32.96% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to extended cycles from public bidding to revenue recognition, reflecting orders from a period of reduced bidding last year [2]. - A recovery in medical equipment bidding activities is expected to improve domestic market revenue in the third quarter of 2025, potentially marking a turning point for the company [2]. - The company continues to invest in research and development, with R&D expenses of 840 million yuan in Q2 2025, representing 9.9% of revenue, and has achieved breakthroughs in various fields [3]. - The company has a strong domestic market presence, covering nearly 110,000 medical institutions and over 99% of top-tier hospitals in China, while also seeing robust growth in international markets [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 8.506 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.77% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.440 billion yuan, down 44.55% year-on-year [1]. - The company's revenue from in vitro diagnostics, life information and support, and medical imaging all saw declines in the first half of 2025 [2]. Research and Development - The company increased its R&D spending to 840 million yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.47% [3]. - New products in various fields have been registered, including a new generation of monitoring devices and advanced imaging technology [3]. Market Position and Growth - The company holds a leading market share in several product categories domestically and has expanded its international presence, with significant growth in international in vitro diagnostics and chemiluminescence businesses [3]. - The company’s products are exported to over 190 countries and regions, enhancing its global market penetration [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to industry procurement policies, with expected net profits of 11.309 billion yuan, 13.045 billion yuan, and 14.971 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 26 for 2025, 23 for 2026, and 20 for 2027, reflecting a favorable valuation outlook [4].

2025 年 8 月 31 日 行业研究 25H1 石化行业业绩承压，关注油价预期变化与"反内卷"进程 油服业绩逆势上行，石化工程企业新签合同高增。2025H1，油服行业一方面 受益于国内"增储上产"持续推进，一方面海外业务逐渐进入业绩释放期，使 得主要油服企业经营质量明显上升，在油价下跌的同时业绩逆势上行。 2025H1，中海油服、海油工程、海油发展、石化油服毛利率分别同比上升 0.71、 5.43、1.18、0.41pct，经营质量持续改善。25H1 石化工程行业新签合同持续 高增，中石化炼化工程 25H1 新签合同总额增长 42.1%，中油工程 25H1 海外 新签合同同比增长 9.86%。随着海外高毛利项目逐渐释放业绩，石化工程行 业盈利能力有望持续上行。 炼化-化纤产业链需求修复偏弱，"反内卷"有望修复行业景气度。25H1，主 要石油化工产品需求修复较弱，叠加油价下跌带来库存损失，大炼化公司业绩 普遍下行，恒力石化、荣盛石化 25H1 归母净利润分别同比-24.1%、-29.8%。 受益于化纤景气度回升，化纤上市公司业绩上行，25H1 桐昆股份、新凤鸣归 母净利润分别同比+2.9%、+17.3%。2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved steady revenue growth in Q2 2025, with a revenue of 210 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69 million yuan, up 39.71% year-on-year [1] - The growth is attributed to the continuous demand for rehabilitation medical services and devices, alongside an expanding product matrix [2] - The company is focusing on R&D innovation, with R&D expenses amounting to 11 million yuan, which is 9.45% of revenue, and is enhancing its product offerings in traditional and emerging technology platforms [2][3] - The company is also accelerating its international expansion, with positive feedback from participation in international exhibitions, indicating potential for overseas business growth [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 115 million yuan, a 10.23% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 36 million yuan, up 29.56% year-on-year [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company’s revenue was 210 million yuan, with a net profit of 69 million yuan, reflecting a 39.71% increase [1] Operational Efficiency - The sales expense ratio decreased to 19.35%, down 7.68 percentage points year-on-year, while the management expense ratio fell to 8.99%, down 2.00 percentage points, indicating improved operational efficiency [2] R&D and Product Development - The company continues to invest in R&D, focusing on traditional technology platforms and new product registrations, which strengthens its market position [2] - The company is enhancing the performance and applicability of its PicoV picosecond laser products through increased R&D investment [2] Market Expansion - The company aims to provide leading products and solutions for pelvic and postpartum rehabilitation, as well as mental and neurological rehabilitation, to ensure stable performance growth [3] - The international market is seen as a new growth engine, with ongoing efforts to gain product access qualifications [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been slightly adjusted downwards due to increased industry competition, with net profit estimates of 131 million yuan and 151 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3] - The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 39 for 2025, 34 for 2026, and 28 for 2027 [3]