- The report discusses a **quantitative timing model based on volume signals**, which indicates a "bullish" view for all major indices except the ChiNext Index as of January 23, 2026[30][31][33] - A **momentum sentiment indicator** is introduced, calculated as the proportion of stocks in the CSI 300 Index with positive returns over the past N days. The indicator is smoothed using two moving averages (N1=50, N2=35). When the short-term average exceeds the long-term average, it signals a bullish market sentiment[32][34][36] - The **moving average sentiment indicator** is based on the eight moving averages (8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233). The indicator assigns values of -1, 0, or 1 based on the position of the current price relative to these moving averages. A value greater than 5 indicates a bullish signal for the CSI 300 Index[40][44] - The **cross-sectional volatility factor** is analyzed, showing that the CSI 300 Index's cross-sectional volatility increased week-over-week, indicating an improved short-term alpha environment. Conversely, the cross-sectional volatility for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices decreased, suggesting a deteriorated alpha environment[45][46] - The **time-series volatility factor** is also evaluated, revealing that the time-series volatility for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices decreased week-over-week, indicating a worsening alpha environment. Over the past quarter, the CSI 300 Index's volatility was in the lower range of the past six months, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices were in the middle range[46][49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Merchants Bank (招商银行) [1] Core Insights - In 2025, China Merchants Bank achieved operating revenue of 337.5 billion, essentially flat year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 150.2 billion, representing a 1.2% increase [3][4] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) was 13.44%, down 1.05 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] - The bank's revenue and net profit growth rates improved slightly compared to the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue growth turning positive for the first time since Q1 2023 [4] - The bank's non-interest income decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in previous quarters, indicating a potential recovery in wealth management and asset management services [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total assets grew by 7.6% year-on-year, with loans and non-loan assets increasing by 5.4% and 10.4%, respectively [5] - The loan-to-asset ratio was 55.5%, down 1.2 percentage points from the beginning of the year, reflecting a balanced approach to loan growth amid weak demand [5] - Deposits grew at a stable rate of around 8%, with total liabilities increasing by 8% year-on-year [5] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.94%, with a provision coverage ratio of 391.8% [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 to be 6.05, 6.33, and 6.64 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.82, 0.75, and 0.69 [6][8] - The bank's strategic goal is to become a "value bank," with a strong focus on retail banking, which is expected to benefit from supportive government policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the spandex industry is at a turning point, with prices reaching historical lows and recent price increases indicating a recovery in the industry [1][2] - The report emphasizes the limited new capacity in the spandex sector and the exit of outdated capacity, suggesting a favorable supply-demand balance and a positive outlook for the spandex industry [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to enhance the recovery of the "refining-chemical fiber" industry chain, with improvements in market competition and supply-demand dynamics [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Spandex prices have dropped from a peak of 83,750 yuan/ton in 2021 to 23,600 yuan/ton in early January 2026, a decline of 72% [1] - The report notes that spandex production capacity in China is projected to grow from 925,000 tons in 2020 to 1,430,000 tons by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The apparent consumption of spandex in China is expected to increase from 720,000 tons in 2020 to 1,060,000 tons by 2025, with a CAGR of 6.7% [2] - The report indicates that the spandex industry is entering a recovery phase due to the reduction in new capacity and the exit of outdated production [2] Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy aims to optimize market competition and improve the supply-demand balance in the refining and chemical fiber sectors [3] - The report suggests that the refining industry is nearing the end of capacity expansion, which is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester filament sector such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, as well as spandex companies like Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber [4]

2026 年 1 月 24 日 总量研究 REITs 二级市场价格上涨 ，多个项目状态更新至"中止" ——REITs 周度观察（20260119-20260123） 要点 1、 二级市场 2026 年 1 月 19 日-2026 年 1 月 23 日（以下简称"本周"），我国已上市公募 REITs 二级市场价格整体呈现上行趋势：中证 REITs（收盘）和中证 REITs 全收 益指数分别收于 806.72 和 1047.51，本周回报率分别为 2.09%和 2.17%。与其 他主流大类资产相比，回报率由高至低排序分别为：黄金>可转债> REITs >A 股> 原油>纯债>美股。 从项目属性来看，本周产权类和特许经营权类 REITs 的二级市场价格均有所上 涨，其中，产权类 REITs 回报率为 3.05%，特许经营权类 REITs 回报率为 1.63%。 从底层资产类型来看，本周新型基础设施类 REITs 涨幅最大。本周回报率排名前 三的底层资产类型分别为新型基础设施类、市政设施类和消费类。 从单只 REIT 层面来看，有 68 只 REITs 上涨，有 10 只 REITs 下跌。涨跌幅方面， 涨幅排名前三 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The issuance volume of credit bonds increased overall on a weekly basis, and the credit spreads of various industries showed mixed trends. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Primary Market 1.1 Issue Statistics - From January 19 to January 23, 2026, a total of 366 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 385.863 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 16.29%. Among them, 175 industrial bonds were issued, with a scale of 203.9 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 19.17%, accounting for 52.84% of the total issuance scale; 158 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 92.143 billion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 0.71%, accounting for 23.88%; 33 financial bonds were issued, with a scale of 89.82 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 32.28%, accounting for 23.28%. [1][10] - The average issuance term of credit bonds this week was 2.88 years. The average issuance term of industrial bonds was 2.40 years, urban investment bonds was 3.71 years, and financial bonds was 1.69 years. [1][14] - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds this week was 2.15%. The average issuance coupon rate of industrial bonds was 2.05%, urban investment bonds was 2.32%, and financial bonds was 1.85%. [2][19] 1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics Two credit bonds were cancelled for issuance this week. [3][23] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - This week, the industry credit spreads showed mixed trends. Among Shenwan's primary industries, the largest decline in the AAA - rated industry credit spread was in the automotive sector, down 5.3BP; the largest increase in the AA + - rated industry credit spread was in the computer sector, up 3.9BP, and the largest decline was in the electronics sector, down 5.7BP; the largest increase in the AA - rated industry credit spread was in the electronics sector, up 0.2BP, and the largest decline was in the non - banking finance sector, down 6.9BP. [3][25] - The credit spreads of coal and steel declined overall this week. The credit spreads of AAA, AA +, and AA - rated coal decreased by 4.6BP, 1.2BP, and 2.6BP respectively. The credit spreads of AAA and AA + - rated steel decreased by 4.6BP and 3BP respectively. [25] - The credit spreads of urban investment and non - urban investment bonds of all levels declined overall this week. The credit spreads of three levels of urban investment bonds decreased by 3.7BP, 3BP, and 3.7BP respectively; the credit spreads of three levels of non - urban investment bonds decreased by 3.1BP, 3.2BP, and 3.5BP respectively. [25] - The credit spreads of state - owned enterprises and private enterprises declined overall this week. The credit spreads of three levels of central state - owned enterprises decreased by 2.7BP, 4.8BP, and 3.2BP respectively; the credit spreads of three levels of local state - owned enterprises decreased by 3.3BP, 3.2BP, and 4.1BP respectively; the credit spreads of AAA and AA + - rated private enterprises decreased by 3.6BP and 0.3BP respectively. [26] - The regional urban investment credit spreads declined overall this week. The three regions with the highest AAA - rated credit spreads this week were Yunnan, Liaoning, and Shaanxi, with credit spreads of 97, 89, and 82BPs respectively; the regions with the highest AA + - rated credit spreads were Qinghai, Yunnan, and Gansu, with credit spreads of 124, 118, and 117BPs respectively; the regions with the highest AA - rated credit spreads were Sichuan, Guangxi, and Yunnan, with credit spreads of 135, 125, and 124BPs respectively. The largest decline in the AAA - rated credit spread was in Liaoning, down 6.9BP; the largest decline in the AA + - rated credit spread was in Ningxia, down 6.6BP; the largest decline in the AA - rated credit spread was in Shaanxi, down 17.4BP. [28] 2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - This week, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 1687.18 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 20.18%. Among various types of credit bonds, the top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. Specifically, the trading volume of commercial bank bonds reached 580.513 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 24.26%, accounting for 34.41% of the total credit bond trading volume this week; the trading volume of corporate bonds reached 444.52 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 20.49%, accounting for 26.35%; the trading volume of medium - term notes reached 362.291 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 19.12%, accounting for 21.47%. [3][29] 2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week The report selected the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week from DM client data for investors' reference. [31]

- The Beta factor and valuation factor achieved positive returns of 0.66% and 0.48% respectively, while the size factor had a negative return of -0.80%[1][18] - In the CSI 300 stock pool, the best-performing factors this week were the 5-day average turnover rate (4.52%), 5-day reversal (3.17%), and price-to-book ratio factor (3.10%)[1][12] - In the CSI 500 stock pool, the best-performing factors this week were the 5-day reversal (3.80%), single-quarter operating profit growth rate (1.98%), and price-to-sales ratio TTM reciprocal (1.65%)[1][14] - In the liquidity 1500 stock pool, the best-performing factors this week were the post-morning return factor (2.18%), 5-day reversal (2.17%), and standardized unexpected income (1.77%)[2][16] - The PB-ROE-50 portfolio achieved positive excess returns in various stock pools this week, with excess returns of 1.38% in the CSI 500 stock pool, 2.54% in the CSI 800 stock pool, and 4.23% in the entire market stock pool[2][23] - The public research stock selection strategy and private research tracking strategy achieved positive excess returns this week, with the public research stock selection strategy achieving an excess return of 0.61% relative to the CSI 800, and the private research tracking strategy achieving an excess return of 3.43% relative to the CSI 800[3][25] - The block trading portfolio achieved a positive excess return of 0.86% relative to the CSI All Share Index this week[3][29] - The directed issuance portfolio achieved a positive excess return of 1.32% relative to the CSI All Share Index this week[3][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The geopolitical landscape has intensified competition for global deep-sea strategic resources, with deep-sea areas becoming a focal point for geopolitical and energy dominance [1][27]. - China's deep-sea resources hold significant strategic value, with comprehensive policy frameworks promoting high-quality development in the industry [2][29]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is positioned as a leading player in deep-sea resource development, aiming to enhance its capabilities and expand its market presence during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Deep-Sea Resource Dynamics - The global utilization of marine resources has deepened, with increasing demands for food, materials, and space, leading to intensified competition in marine resource acquisition [14][17]. - The OECD predicts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.45% for the marine economy from 2010 to 2030, with significant growth expected in offshore wind power and aquaculture [18][19]. 2. CNOOC's Strategic Positioning - CNOOC has established a comprehensive marine energy development system, covering conventional oil and gas, deep-water oil and gas, LNG, and offshore wind power [3][36]. - The company holds over 95% of China's offshore oil and gas development rights, reinforcing its dominant position in the sector [37]. 3. Policy Support for Deep-Sea Technology - The Chinese government has elevated "deep-sea technology" to a strategic emerging industry, emphasizing its importance for resource development, national defense, and technological innovation [2][28]. - A multi-level policy framework has been established to support the growth of the deep-sea technology market, ensuring sustainable development and increased contributions to the marine economy [29][31]. 4. Investment Recommendations - CNOOC is recommended as a key investment opportunity due to its strong growth in production and reserves, along with its cost advantages [39]. - Other companies in the sector, such as CNOOC Services and CNOOC Engineering, are also highlighted for their potential benefits from the ongoing development of China's marine resources [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [5]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the holdings of non-ferrous metal stocks by active equity funds increased significantly, with lithium and aluminum showing notable increases [1]. - The total market value of non-ferrous metal stocks held by active equity funds reached approximately 151.9 billion yuan, accounting for 7.83% of the total holdings, an increase of 2.11 percentage points from Q3 2025 [1]. - The top ten stocks by market value in the non-ferrous metal sector are concentrated in copper, gold, lithium, and aluminum, with Zijin Mining remaining the largest holding [1]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings - In Q4 2025, the non-ferrous metal sector's holdings accounted for 7.83% of total fund holdings, up from 5.72% in Q3 2025 [1]. - The top ten stocks by market value include Zijin Mining (38.12 billion yuan), Luoyang Molybdenum (10.57 billion yuan), and Zhongjin Gold (5.95 billion yuan) [1]. Stock Increases and Decreases - Significant increases in holdings were observed in lithium and aluminum stocks, with the largest increases in Yongxing Materials (lithium) and Shengxin Lithium Energy (lithium) [2]. - Decreases were primarily in silver and certain processing stocks, with Jiangnan New Materials (copper processing) showing the largest reduction [2]. Investment Recommendations - Copper prices are expected to rise due to tight supply, with recommendations for Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining [3]. - Aluminum supply is projected to remain constrained, with a recommendation for Yun Aluminum [3]. - Gold and silver are expected to benefit from a weakening dollar and a potential interest rate cut cycle, with a positive outlook on gold prices [3]. - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to supply constraints, with a recommendation for Huayou Cobalt [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report Core Viewpoints - There is no need to worry about the so - called "interest rate hike" of DR001 recently. "Guiding the overnight interest rate to operate around the policy interest rate" does not mean guiding the average of the overnight interest rate to be exactly equal to the policy interest rate, and the 1.35% DR001 in the second half of 2025 can be considered to be operating around the policy interest rate [1][11]. - The statement of "guiding the overnight interest rate to operate around the policy interest rate" is not contradictory to the previous statement of "guiding short - term money market interest rates to operate around the policy interest rate center" because they describe different objects and states. Since the second half of 2025, the average of DR001 and DR007 is 1.42%, only deviating from the policy interest rate by 2bp, which is an embodiment of "operating around the policy interest rate center" [2][11]. - The recent increase in DR001 is not high. The value on January 22, 2026, is only at the 86% quantile level since the second half of 2025, and DR001 also has a law of rising in the second half of the month. The recent increase is just a return to the "normal" level [3][13]. - If the deviation of DR001 from the policy interest rate is limited within a period, it indicates that it is in the "around mode", and it is not advisable to over - interpret the normal fluctuations of DR or rely on the short - term changes of DR to judge the attitude of monetary policy [4][16]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Is DR001 going to have an "interest rate hike"? - Some investors are worried that the average of DR001 will rise and approach 1.4% because the average of DR001 in the second half of 2025 was 1.35%, lower than the 7D OMO rate of 1.4%, and the average of DR001 since mid - January 2026 has been significantly higher than before [1][9]. - There is no need to worry. The statement of "guiding the overnight interest rate to operate around the policy interest rate" does not mean guiding the average of the overnight interest rate to be exactly equal to the policy interest rate, and it is consistent with the previous statement of "guiding short - term money market interest rates to operate around the policy interest rate center" [1][2]. 2. How to view the recent increase in DR001? - On January 22, 2026, DR001 reached 1.42%, the highest since early December 2025, but it is only at the 86% quantile level since the second half of 2025, and DR001 has a law of rising in the second half of the month [3][13]. - Comparing the average of DR001 from the beginning of the month to the 22nd in several months, the value in December 2025 was relatively low, and the recent increase is a return to the "normal" level [3][13]. - The monthly average of DR001 in the second half of 2025 did not differ much, and most months were around 1.37%, close to the policy interest rate. In the "around mode", it is not advisable to over - interpret the normal fluctuations of DR or rely on short - term changes to judge monetary policy [4][16].

Group 1 - The core characteristic of the A-share bull market is the alternating pattern of "upward phases and consolidation phases," with long-term downward phases being very rare [1][12][23] - Historical bull markets show that comprehensive bull markets consist of "3 consolidation phases + 4 upward phases," while structural bull markets consist of "2 consolidation phases + 3 upward phases" [1][12][19] - The current market has formed 2 complete upward phases and 2 complete consolidation phases since September 2024, indicating a transition from the second consolidation phase to the third upward phase [1][21][22] Group 2 - The second consolidation phase of comprehensive bull markets typically features significant pullbacks and short durations, while structural bull markets exhibit smaller pullbacks and longer durations [23][24][27] - The maximum pullback during the second consolidation phase for structural bull markets is significantly lower than that of comprehensive bull markets, with maximum pullbacks of 7.2% and 6.8% compared to 11.3% and 9.1% for comprehensive bull markets [23][24][26] - The duration of the second consolidation phase in structural bull markets is much longer, averaging 8.9 months and 5.7 months, compared to approximately 1.8 months and 2.0 months for comprehensive bull markets [24][25][26] Group 3 - Confirmation of a transition from the second consolidation phase to the third upward phase requires both technical indicators and policy events to align [2][42] - Historical bull markets have shown that breakthroughs from consolidation phases are often supported by favorable policies or key events, which provide the necessary momentum for market transitions [43][44][45] - The current bull market has shown signs of breaking through the second consolidation phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index effectively surpassing the upper boundary of the consolidation phase and closing with a strong bullish signal on January 6, 2026 [3][77][79] Group 4 - The current bull market aligns more closely with the characteristics of a structural bull market, as evidenced by the small pullback and long duration of the second consolidation phase [62][63] - The market style during the second consolidation phase has maintained a "stronger remains strong" pattern, contrasting with the "high cut low" style seen in comprehensive bull markets [27][28][63] - The performance of the second upward phase in the current bull market also reflects structural bull market traits, with a duration of approximately 1.3 months and a price increase of 10.0%, which is significantly lower than the upward phases in comprehensive bull markets [62][75]