AI重构医疗，从场景落地到变现讨论 ——AI医疗行业专题报告 2026年1月22日 分析师：吴佳青，执业证书编号：S0930519120001 证券研究报告 目录 CONTENT S 第一章：复盘 •本轮行情与上轮行情的异同 第二章：AI+药物研发 •靶点发现与验证 •变现模式探讨：看好 CRO+Biotech 第四章：AI+诊疗 •环境智能与自动病历生成 •大模型驱动的 AI医生助手 第五章：AI手术机器人&健康管理 • AI在手术机器人领域的应用 可穿戴设备与数字疗法 • 第三章：AI+医学影像 •从 辅助诊断迈向全流程赋能 2025年初国内外AI医疗概念股普涨，美股AI医疗行情更侧重于健康管理、AI数字化临床实验领域，国内有相关概念映射标的 涨幅较大 1）健康管理服务：商业模式以订阅制为主，提供AI智能问诊、AI私人医生等服务，制定针对患者的个性化健康管理方案。 2）AI数字化临床实验：提供药物研发和医疗信息服务，在临床试验中运用AI技术进行数据管理、患者招募和疗效评估等。 •变现模式探讨 第六章：投资建议 第七章：风险分析 请务必参阅正文之后的重要声明 2 26年初国内AI医疗概念股普涨，行情发酵侧重 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" with expectations of returns exceeding the market benchmark index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strong growth potential of low-temperature liquid dairy products, with the company positioning itself as a leading brand in segmented markets. The company has successfully expanded its product matrix and is focusing on nationwide market penetration [1][2][3]. - The company has demonstrated robust single product development capabilities, with its core brands becoming leaders in their respective segments. The introduction of innovative products like "Jianchun" and "Yuexianhuo" has significantly contributed to its market share growth [3][48]. - The company is actively optimizing its distribution channels, with a significant portion of revenue coming from its distribution network. The company is also exploring new retail channels and B2B opportunities to enhance its market presence [4][50]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The dairy product industry in China is experiencing steady growth, with the terminal market size projected to reach 6,535 billion yuan by 2024, growing at a CAGR of 1.8% from 2019 to 2024. Liquid milk accounts for 54% of this market [14][15]. - Low-temperature liquid milk is expected to grow at a faster rate compared to room temperature milk, with a projected market size of 897 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 3% [15][23]. Company Profile - The company, established in 2000, has diversified its product offerings, including high-end yogurt, infant formula, and fresh milk. It has become a top brand in low-temperature yogurt and high-end fresh milk by 2024 [1][32]. - The company reported a revenue of 198 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13%. For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue grew by 2% [38][42]. Product and Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue structure shows that liquid milk and infant formula are the main categories, with low-temperature yogurt being the largest sub-category. In Q1-Q3 2025, liquid dairy products accounted for 87% of total revenue [42][43]. - Low-temperature yogurt and fresh milk revenues showed resilience, with fresh milk revenue growing by 41% year-on-year [2][42]. Market Expansion and Distribution - The company is expanding its national sales network, having acquired regional brands to strengthen its presence in the northwest and southwest markets. Key regions like North China are projected to contribute significantly to revenue [5][57]. - The distribution model is primarily based on a dealer network, which accounted for approximately 69% of revenue in Q1-Q3 2025. The company is also enhancing its online and direct sales channels [4][50]. Financial Performance - The company has shown improved profitability, with adjusted net profits reaching 11.6 billion yuan in 2024, a 92% increase year-on-year. The gross margin has also improved, indicating better operational efficiency [38][40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The domestic sales of excavators continued to grow in December 2025, with a significant recovery in non-excavator categories. The total excavator sales (including exports) reached 23,095 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, with domestic sales at 10,331 units, up 10.9% [3][4]. - The report highlights a robust recovery in the demand for construction machinery driven by ongoing infrastructure investments and the replacement cycle of machinery, projecting a compound growth rate of around 30% for replacement demand in the coming years [4][5]. - The export of excavators also showed strong growth, with December 2025 exports reaching 12,764 units, a 26.9% increase year-on-year, and total export value for the year at $64.2 billion, up 27.2% [6][10]. Summary by Sections Domestic Sales Performance - In December 2025, excavator sales reached 23,095 units, with domestic sales at 10,331 units, reflecting a 19.2% and 10.9% year-on-year growth respectively. For the entire year, total excavator sales were 235,257 units, up 17.0%, and domestic sales were 118,518 units, up 17.9% [3][14]. - Non-excavator machinery categories also saw significant growth, with loader sales increasing by 30.0% and motor grader sales by 14.0% in December 2025 [14]. Export Performance - The report notes that excavator exports in December 2025 reached 12,764 units, marking a 26.9% increase year-on-year, with total annual exports at 116,739 units, up 16.1% [6][14]. - The total export value of construction machinery for December 2025 was $64.2 billion, a 27.2% increase, with the annual total at $601.7 billion, up 13.8% [6]. Future Demand Drivers - The report emphasizes that active fiscal policies are expected to stimulate infrastructure investment, ensuring sustained demand for construction machinery in the medium term [5]. - The commencement of the Yaxia Hydropower Project, with an estimated investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is projected to significantly boost machinery demand, with equipment needs potentially reaching 120 to 180 billion yuan [9][10]. Electric and Intelligent Machinery Trends - Electric loader sales surged by 218.7% in December 2025, with an electricization rate of 22.2%, indicating a strong trend towards electrification in the machinery sector [7]. - The report also highlights the growth potential in the forklift market, driven by advancements in robotics and artificial intelligence, with a projected 39.3% increase in sales of unmanned forklifts in 2025 [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several leading manufacturers, including SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion, as well as component suppliers like Hengli Hydraulic, indicating a favorable long-term outlook for these companies [10].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The risk of a government shutdown in the U.S. is significantly lower than in 2025, with six departmental budgets already passed and preliminary consensus on the remaining six [2] - The Trump administration's focus on foreign issues may lead to a more stable domestic policy environment, reducing the likelihood of a "hard landing" in political negotiations [2] Group 2: Banking Sector - The new "package" loan interest subsidy policy is expected to increase the subsidy scale to between 100 billion and 200 billion, significantly higher than previous rounds, which will support investment and consumption [3] - This policy is anticipated to catalyze a positive market trend for the banking sector, particularly benefiting small and micro enterprises and retail-focused companies [3] Group 3: Real Estate Market - In 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 14.2% year-on-year, while the average transaction price increased by 3.4% [4] - The core 30 cities saw a 8.7% decline in residential land transaction area, with an average price increase of 6.4% year-on-year, indicating a stabilization in the market [4] - The article suggests that leading state-owned enterprises in real estate will see a recovery in operational performance as supply-side adjustments take effect [4] Group 4: Medical Sector - The surgical robot industry has significant growth potential with low penetration rates, and clearer policy guidelines are expected to drive industry growth [5] - The industry is transitioning from a "consumables-driven" model to a more mature "technology and consumables separation" model, which may enhance profitability [5] - Focus is recommended on segments that meet high-value definitions in the new guidelines, particularly in the laparoscopic robot sector [5] Group 5: Company Analysis - Yanjing Beer is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.584 to 1.742 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 65% [7] - The company's profit is further bolstered by land reserve payments, and product optimization along with channel expansion is driving high sales growth [7] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is set at 1.596, 1.886, and 2.178 billion yuan respectively, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 22x, 18x, and 16x [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [29] Core Insights - The "package" loan interest subsidy policies aim to stimulate consumption and investment, focusing on enhancing effective domestic demand through financial and fiscal collaboration [2][7] - The new policies are expected to significantly increase the scale of interest subsidies compared to previous measures, with a projected subsidy scale of approximately 1000 to 2000 billion yuan for 2026 [17][19] Summary by Sections Loan Subsidy Policies - The policies include four main areas: subsidies for small and micro enterprises, equipment updates, service industry operators, and personal consumption loans, with a focus on key industries such as new energy vehicles and medical equipment [4][6] - The subsidy rate for small and micro enterprise loans is set at 1.5 percentage points, with a maximum loan amount of 50 million yuan per entity, potentially providing up to 150,000 yuan in subsidies [4][6] - The equipment update loan subsidy has been increased from 1% to 1.5%, expanding the scope to include technology innovation loans and related fields [4][6] - The personal consumption loan subsidy has removed previous restrictions, allowing for broader eligibility and a maintained subsidy rate of 1% [5][6] Economic Impact - The policies are designed to alleviate financial burdens on small and micro enterprises, encouraging investment and job stability, particularly in high-tech and essential service sectors [7][8] - The expected increase in loan demand from these sectors is anticipated to support the overall credit recovery in the economy, particularly for retail and service industries [7][8] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the coordinated fiscal and monetary policies will positively impact the banking sector's loan volume and pricing, particularly benefiting banks focused on small and micro enterprises and retail finance [23] - The banking sector has seen a decline in stock performance, and the new policies are expected to act as a catalyst for recovery, especially in the context of the "opening red" period for banks [23]

2026 年 1 月 21 日 总量研究 美国政府停摆：阴影逐步消散 ——解构美国系列第十七篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：周欣平 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 特朗普如何激活美国地产：现实与挑战—— 解构美国系列第十六篇（2025-12-27） 美国政府重新开门，市场为何"不买账"？ ——解构美国系列第十五篇（2025-11-18） 美元指数突破 100 后，强势美元将维持多 久？——解构美国系列第十四篇（2025-11- 06） 减税法案顺利落地，可以对冲关税压力吗？ ——解构美国系列第十三篇（2025-07-04） 近期美债收益率为何再次上行？——解构美 国系列第十二篇（2025-05-16） 特朗普释放和解信号，中国掌握谈判主导权 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十三篇（2025- 04-27） 关税互搏，中美经济韧性谁更强？——《大 国博弈》系列第八十二篇（2025-04-10） 特朗普升级全球关税战，对 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance in the coming years [5]. Core Insights - Yanjing Beer is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.584 to 1.742 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 65%. The company attributes this growth to both operational improvements and the recognition of land reserve payments from subsidiaries, which are expected to contribute approximately 132 million yuan to net profit [1][3]. - The company has been optimizing its product matrix and expanding its sales channels, focusing on high-end and youthful strategies. The flagship product, Yanjing U8, has seen significant sales growth, becoming a key driver of revenue [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 is between 1.584 billion and 1.742 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 50% to 65% year-on-year. The expected net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 is 15.32%, which is still below industry peers but improving as reforms progress [1]. - The company forecasts a net profit of 1.596 billion yuan for 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 22x, indicating a favorable valuation compared to future earnings [3]. Product and Market Strategy - Yanjing Beer is enhancing its product structure with a focus on the high-growth flagship product Yanjing U8, complemented by mid-to-high-end products like Yanjing V10 and regional specialties. The company is also introducing differentiated products such as non-alcoholic beers to cater to diverse consumer preferences [2]. - The sales strategy includes a dual approach of "full-channel integration and regional deep cultivation," aiming to penetrate both strong and emerging markets while adapting to consumer trends [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects a steady increase in net profit from 1.596 billion yuan in 2025 to 2.178 billion yuan by 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 22x to 16x, suggesting an attractive investment opportunity as the company continues to grow [3][10]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 37.6% in 2023 to 43.1% by 2027, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency and cost management [12].

2026 年 1 月 21 日 行业研究 价格立项指南出台，关注国产手术机器人商业化推进 ——手术机器人行业跟踪报告 要点 事件：国家医保局近日正式印发《手术与治疗辅助操作类医疗服务价格项目立 项指南（试行）》（以下简称《立项指南》），围绕 3D 打印、示踪增强成像、 能量器械、术中影像引导、机械臂与远程手术等医疗科技创新成果，进行统一 价格立项，规范形成 37 项价格项目、5 项加收项、1 项扩展项。 点评： 国产商业化加速推进，进口替代确定性强。国内手术机器人行业起步较晚，市 场长期由外资品牌主导。随着《立项指南》的发布、叠加"大规模设备更新" 政策红利延续、国产设备性价比优势凸显，我们认为手术机器人行业渗透率将 加速提升；本土设备在二三线医院及基层市场的教育成效显著，国产替代确定 性强。以腔镜手术机器人为例，随着国产龙头企业产能释放及临床数据验证成 熟，达芬奇的垄断格局正在被逐步重塑。据 RoboticTech 统计，2025 年腔镜 手术机器人中标量方面，国产品牌首次实现对进口品牌的反超，达芬奇的市场 份额进一步被压缩，微创、精锋、思哲睿、术锐等国产品牌中标量持续攀升， 市场格局从"单极垄断"迈向"多 ...

2026 年 1 月 21 日 行业研究 2025 全年核心 30 城宅地成交建面同比-9%，成交均价同比+6% ——土地市场月度跟踪报告（2025 年 12 月） 要点 2025 年，百城宅地成交建面同比-14.2%，成交楼面均价同比+3.4%。 2025 年，百城成交住宅类用地建面为 3.20 亿平，累计同比-14.2%；成交楼面 均价为 5,605 元/平方米，累计同比+3.4%。分能级城市来看，2025 年全年， 一线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为 1,077 万平，累计同比-31.2%；成交建面 966 万平，累计同比-29.3%；成交楼面均价为 35,203 元/平方米，累计同比+18.6%。 二线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为 1.49 亿平，累计同比-4.5%；成交建面为 1.25 亿平，累计同比-1.0%；成交楼面均价为 6,420 元/平方米，累计同比+3.2%。 三线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为 2.15 亿平，累计同比-24.9%；成交建面为 1.85 亿平，累计同比-20.5%；成交楼面均价为 3,509 元/平方米，累计同比-1.6%。 2025 年，新增土储价值排名前三为中海地产、华润置地 ...

2026 年 1 月 21 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】解构日元贬值与日股大涨之谜——《海外非美经济探究》系列第五篇 我们认为日元贬值原因为美日利差收窄持续性不强、国际收支结构失衡、日本经济恢 复存在不确定性。日本股市的上涨，则受到了新一轮财政扩张、通胀带动企业盈利恢 复、全球 AI 扩张周期的影响。二者的分歧，体现了不同资产对日本经济的结构性矛 盾定价的差异化。展望 2026 年，日股有望维持高位。日元上半年继续承压，下半年 或有反转的可能性。日债收益率曲线上半年熊陡，下半年熊平。 宁波银行发布 2025 年业绩快报，实现营业收入 719.7 亿，同比增长 8%，实现归母 净利润 293.3 亿，同比增长 8.1%。量增价稳对利息收入形成有力支撑，营收及盈利 增速维持高位稳定。展望 2026 年，预估盈利仍有望保持较好水平。维持 2025-27 年 EPS 预测为 4.44/4.82/5.27 元，维持"买入"评级。 【有色】民爆业绩提供稳定支撑，氢氧化锂龙头受益于锂价上行周期——雅化集团 （002497.SZ）动态跟踪报告(增持) 储能需求提振预期，2026 年供需格局有望向好。 ...