晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 2026 年 1 月 13 日 行业研究 【互联网传媒】漫剧接棒真人短剧，海量 IP 价值待释放——短剧、漫剧市场专题报 告(买入) 2026 年，随着可灵等 AI 视频模型的成熟应用，漫剧凭借低成本、高产能和强视觉冲 击力，正接棒真人短剧成为平台内容增量的主力军。市场规模方面，漫剧行业在 2025 年已呈现强势增长态势，预计 2026 年市场规模将维持高速增长，使得海量 IP 价值得 以释放建议关注行业产能释放，推荐阅文集团，关注中文在线、掌阅科技。维持互联 网传媒行业"买入"评级。 【房地产】【光大地产】核心城市楼市成交高频跟踪 20260112(增持) 截至 2026 年 1 月 11 日(由于基数变动，年初同比数据波动性较大为正常情况)， 20 城新房：累计成交 1.3 万套(-50.4%)；北京 822 套(-30%)、上海 1958 套(-41%)、深 圳 431 套(-78%)； 10 城二手房：累计成交 2.4 万套(-26.2%)；北京 3427 套(-38%)、 上海 7143 套(-13%)、深圳 1497 套(-37%)。 公司研究 【电子】国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the internet media industry, indicating expected returns exceeding the market benchmark by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The short drama market in China is projected to reach RMB 634.3 billion by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 26%, and is expected to grow to RMB 856.5 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.2% from 2025 to 2027 [1][13]. - The AI-driven comic drama market is anticipated to exceed RMB 200 billion in 2025, with a significant increase in production capacity and the number of new releases [3][27]. - The report highlights the transition of the industry towards "premiumization and industrialization," with AI technology playing a crucial role in enhancing production efficiency and reducing costs [5][35]. Summary by Sections Short Drama Market - The domestic short drama market is expected to grow steadily, with a projected market size of RMB 634.3 billion in 2025, up 26% year-on-year, and a forecasted increase to RMB 856.5 billion by 2027 [1][13]. - The supply of short dramas is increasing, with the number of new releases rising from 34,600 in 2024 to 39,600 in the first half of 2025, indicating a faster pace of capacity release [1][16]. - The overseas short drama market is set for significant growth, with revenues expected to reach USD 2.38 billion in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 263% [2][21]. Comic Drama Market - 2025 is identified as the year of AI comic dramas in China, with the market expected to surpass RMB 200 billion, driven by the use of AI tools for script generation and production [3][27]. - The number of comic dramas released is projected to reach 46,931 in 2025, with a notable increase in production efficiency due to AI integration [3][28]. - Major companies are investing in comic drama production, with platforms like Douyin and iQIYI providing financial incentives to support creators [4][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the growth in short and comic dramas, recommending companies such as Yu Wen Group, Zhongwen Online, and Zhangyue Technology [5][35][36]. - The report emphasizes the importance of capacity release in the industry and the potential for significant IP value to be unlocked in the coming years [5][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [4]. Core Insights - The brain-computer interface (BCI) sector is showing active performance, with recommendations to continue monitoring thematic opportunities. The global BCI market is projected to reach USD 7.63 billion by 2029, indicating a rapidly opening blue ocean market [20][21]. - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of clinical value in the pharmaceutical sector, focusing on innovative drug chains and medical devices. Key recommendations include companies involved in BD overseas acceleration and high-end medical devices [23][25]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology index rose by 7.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.03 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 2.10 percentage points, ranking 6th among 31 sub-industries. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 10.26%, surpassing the Hang Seng Index by 11.57 percentage points [15][9]. R&D Progress - Recent clinical applications include IMM2510 and Tida-Paclitaxel from Yiming Anke, with ongoing Phase III trials for Tiengoteini from Yaokang and Phase II trials for SYS6017 from Shiyao Group [28]. Key Recommendations - Focus on three categories of companies: 1. Medical scene integrators (e.g., Xiangyu Medical, Weisi Medical) benefiting from insurance payment integration and existing rehabilitation needs [21]. 2. Leaders in invasive/semi-invasive technologies (e.g., Xinwei Medical, Jieti Medical) with significant technological advantages [21]. 3. Full-process support providers (e.g., Meihua Medical, Sanbo Neuroscience) focusing on high-certainty segments like supply chain production and clinical development [21]. Financial Forecasts and Valuations - Key companies and their projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024-2026 include: - Tianzhili: EPS of 0.64, PE of 24 [3]. - Innovent Biologics: EPS of -0.06, PE of NA [3]. - WuXi AppTec: EPS of 3.27, PE of 30 [3]. - Mindray Medical: EPS of 9.62, PE of 21 [3]. - Weisi Medical: EPS of 1.06, PE of 62 [3]. Policy and Industry Resonance - The report highlights a structural shift in domestic policies favoring innovative drugs, with a focus on clinical value and the potential for valuation recovery in the pharmaceutical sector. The report suggests that the investment attractiveness of the pharmaceutical sector will continue to grow [23][24].

Macroeconomic Insights - December CPI year-on-year growth expanded, primarily due to a low base and rising food prices[8] - PPI year-on-year decline narrowed, influenced by rising non-ferrous metal prices and the ongoing effects of "anti-involution" policies[8] - The price environment may continue to improve in 2026, with PPI supported by deepening "anti-involution" policies and tightening competition for key minerals[8] Market Trends - In December, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a total sales amount of CNY 341.5 billion, a month-on-month increase of 39.7%[33] - For the full year 2025, the cumulative sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies was CNY 3.36 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.8%[33] - The new stock market saw 18 new listings in December, raising over CNY 30 billion, with average first-day gains of 214% for the main board and 296% for the dual innovation board[18] Industry Performance - The credit bond issuance volume increased seasonally, with a total of 332 bonds issued, amounting to CNY 312.27 billion, a week-on-week increase of 306%[22] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum price reached CNY 23,300 per ton, the highest since March 2022, with the aluminum-to-copper price ratio hitting a 20-year high[42] - The solid-state battery industry is entering a new phase of industrialization, with expectations for mass production by 2026-2027[47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong potential for investment returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading platform for semiconductor equipment, benefiting from the ongoing domestic production process. It has established a comprehensive product lineup in etching, thin film deposition, and thermal processing equipment, with projected revenues exceeding 50 billion yuan for etching equipment and 65 billion yuan for thin film deposition equipment in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The company has announced a stock incentive plan aimed at binding its core team more closely, with performance targets set for revenue growth and R&D investment ratios over the next four years [3]. - The company reported a revenue of 273.01 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.97%, and a net profit of 51.30 billion yuan, up 14.83% year-on-year [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 22,079 million yuan in 2023, 29,838 million yuan in 2024, 38,778 million yuan in 2025, 49,856 million yuan in 2026, and 59,820 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 50.32%, 35.14%, 29.96%, 28.57%, and 19.99% respectively [4]. - The forecasted net profit for the company is 3,899 million yuan in 2023, 5,621 million yuan in 2024, 7,628 million yuan in 2025, 10,030 million yuan in 2026, and 12,812 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 65.73%, 44.17%, 35.71%, 31.48%, and 27.74% respectively [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 7.35 yuan in 2023, 10.53 yuan in 2024, 10.53 yuan in 2025, 13.84 yuan in 2026, and 17.68 yuan in 2027 [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company is expected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 68 in 2023, decreasing to 28 by 2027, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 10.8 in 2023 to 6.1 in 2027 [4][12]. - Return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 16.00% in 2023 to 21.56% in 2027, indicating increasing profitability and efficiency [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company benefits from the rising prices of storage products driven by the AI wave, with a shift in demand towards QLC Enterprise SSDs due to supply shortages in traditional HDDs [1] - The company has established a dual development model of "distribution + products," with electronic component distribution being the main revenue source [1] - The company has successfully developed its own brand "Haipu Storage," focusing on domestic and customized solutions, with products entering mass production [2] - The company has a strong market presence with a diverse client base, including major internet companies, enhancing its market expansion capabilities [3] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 26.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.9%, while net profit was 359 million yuan, a slight decline of 1.36% [2] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 35.99 billion yuan in 2025, 44.73 billion yuan in 2026, and 51.17 billion yuan in 2027 [4] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 605 million yuan, increasing to 1.04 billion yuan in 2026 and 1.25 billion yuan in 2027 [4] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 3.13%, down 2.06 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising procurement costs [2] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 8.89 billion yuan in 2025, with total liabilities of 5.30 billion yuan [10] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a projected P/E ratio of 127 for 2025, decreasing to 61 by 2027 [12] - The projected ROE for 2025 is 17.17%, increasing to 23.47% in 2026 [11] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 76.71 billion yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Views - The copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting upward price movement. As of January 9, 2026, the SHFE copper closing price was 101,410 CNY/ton, up 3.23% from January 2, and the LME copper closing price was 12,998 USD/ton, up 4.31% from January 2 [1] - The report highlights that the TC spot price has reached a historical low, indicating ongoing tightness in copper concentrate procurement [3] - Despite a rise in domestic social inventory, the overall supply-demand dynamics are still expected to favor higher copper prices in the future [1][2] Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: - The TC spot price is at -45.1 USD/ton, a historical low [3] - Domestic copper concentrate production in October 2025 was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and down 12.1% year-on-year [2] - The domestic port copper concentrate inventory as of January 9, 2026, was 640,000 tons, down 0.8% from the previous week [2] - **Demand**: - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a weekly operating rate of 56.58%, down 2.37 percentage points [3] - The air conditioning sector, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to have production changes of +11%, -11.4%, and -2.4% for January to March 2026 [3] Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 14.6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 2.5% [2] - As of January 9, 2026, global copper inventory across the three major exchanges totaled 838,000 tons, up 6.2% from December 31, 2025 [2] Futures Market Summary - The SHFE copper active contract position decreased by 12.8% week-on-week, with a total position of 189,000 lots as of January 9, 2026 [4] - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 58,000 lots, down 3.3% week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the power equipment and environmental protection sectors [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights several recent developments in the new energy supply side, including a meeting by four ministries to regulate competition in the power and energy storage battery industries, a significant drop in polysilicon futures prices, and the planned cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026 [3]. - The report emphasizes that the "anti-involution" efforts in the new energy sector are complex and challenging, with the government aiming to maintain international competitiveness while balancing market and policy adjustments [3]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on domestic computing power, hydrogen energy, and energy storage upstream sectors, with specific companies suggested for investment based on their market positioning and growth potential [3]. Summary by Sections New Energy Supply Side - Recent events include a meeting to regulate competition in the power and energy storage battery industries, a decline in polysilicon futures, and adjustments to export tax rebates for photovoltaic products [3]. - The report suggests that the direction of "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic industry will remain unchanged, focusing on execution and coordination [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises caution in pursuing high-flying stocks in commercial aerospace and related sectors due to significant price increases detached from fundamental performance [3]. - It recommends focusing on companies like Sifang Co., Shenghong Co., and others in the AI power sector, as well as those involved in hydrogen energy and energy storage [3]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the domestic energy storage market and the upcoming bidding situation for energy storage projects [5][6]. Wind Power - The report notes that the newly installed capacity for onshore wind power in 2024 is expected to reach 75.8 GW, a year-on-year increase of 9.68%, while offshore wind power is projected to decline by 40.85% [7]. - The report indicates a significant increase in domestic wind power installations, with a total of 82.50 GW added from January to November 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 59.42% [7]. Lithium Battery Sector - The report discusses the impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates on lithium batteries, which is expected to create pressure on smaller battery manufacturers while benefiting larger firms [19]. - It highlights the anticipated demand for lithium batteries in 2026, with a total production estimate of approximately 210 GWh in China, despite a seasonal decline [20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply chain dynamics and pricing trends in lithium battery materials, particularly lithium carbonate and other components [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the small nucleic acid drug industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The small nucleic acid drug market, primarily driven by SiRNA and ASO, is experiencing rapid growth from technological breakthroughs to large-scale commercialization, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 217.8% from 2016 to 2021, increasing from $0.1 billion to $3.25 billion [1]. - The global market for oligonucleotide drugs is projected to exceed $15 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 35% from 2020 to 2025 [1]. - BlueX Technology is a key player in solid-phase synthesis carriers, developing a comprehensive "synthesis-purification" platform for small nucleic acids and peptides, with significant investments planned for expanding its capabilities [2]. - Lianhua Technology is leveraging its established small molecule CDMO system to expand into the small nucleic acid business, with the global CDMO market expected to surpass $120 billion by 2024, growing at a CAGR of approximately 9.5% [3]. Summary by Sections Small Nucleic Acid Drug Market - The small nucleic acid drug market is characterized by a variety of drug types, including SiRNA and ASO, with a significant increase in market size and growth rate [1]. - The market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by advancements in technology and increased demand for oligonucleotide drugs [1]. BlueX Technology - BlueX Technology has established itself as a leader in solid-phase synthesis carriers, creating a full-chain supply capability for small nucleic acids and peptides [2]. - The company plans to invest 1.15 billion yuan in a new GMP-standard biopharmaceutical park and expand its international presence [2]. Lianhua Technology - Lianhua Technology is expanding its CDMO services to include small nucleic acids, capitalizing on the growing demand for biopharmaceuticals and small molecule intermediates [3]. - The company has made significant progress in international market expansion and is focusing on developing new business areas, including peptide CDMO and radioactive drugs [3].

2026 年 1 月 11 日 联合研究 光研集萃（2026 年 1 月第 1 期） ——光大周度观点一览 要点 策略周度观点：寻找好春季行情中的持续性亮点 对春季行情保持耐心，重点关注成长与小盘风格。在政策支持与产业热点频出的 共同作用下，本周市场延续了 12 月末以来的强势表现。短期我们认为市场热度 仍有望持续，不过需要关注 1 月中旬之后到春节前市场逐步降温的可能。从历史 规律来看，上证指数当年 1 月的涨跌幅与上一年 12 月的涨幅呈一定的"此消彼 长"特征，同时春节之前市场交易热度也将有所下行。预计春节之后市场或许会 迎来新一轮上行动力。对于春季行情，投资者应保持耐心。 结构层面上，成长风格与小盘风格通常在春季行情中明显占优，短期建议关注成 长与顺周期两条主线。成长主线建议关注商业航天、半导体产业链、AI 等方向； 顺周期主线建议关注有色金属、零售、社会服务等方向。 本周重点行业 计算机：整体来看，中国 AI 应用具备三大机遇：1）实业深耕：基于我国完整的 工业体系，为 AI 的发展提供高价值的现实世界数据/应用场景/能源供应，重点 关注拥有行业 Knowhow 和数据的公司；2）外展出海：AI 工 ...