2025 年 5 月 5 日 公司研究 涡轮增压器业务表现突出，战略布局机器人零部件业务 ——西菱动力（300733.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年年度报告及 2025 年一季报。公司 2024 全年实现营业 收入 17.53 亿元，同比增长 15.38%；实现归母净利润 0.51 亿元。2025 年一季 度营业收入 3.88 亿元，同比增长 0.29%；实现归母净利润 0.21 亿元，同比增长 107.58%。公司拟向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 0.50 元（含税）。 涡轮增压器业务已成为汽车零部件板块的核心增长动力。2024 年公司汽车零部 件板块整体收入为 15.80 亿元，同比增长 11.46%；毛利率为 14.22%，较上一 年度提升 4.83 个百分点。具体产品来看，涡轮增压器总成保持较快增长，2024 年度实现收入 9.86 亿元，同比增长 25.12%；凸轮轴总成、连杆总成、曲轴减 震器等传统产品收入为 5.94 亿元，略微下降。涡轮增压器产品已成为公司汽车 零部件板块增长的核心动力，业务进入理想、吉利、奇瑞等知名客户市场， 2022 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 5.1 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 100%, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 500 million yuan, up 236% year-on-year [4] - The growth in the electric two-wheeler and lawn mower robot segments is particularly notable, with electric two-wheeler revenue at 2.9 billion yuan (YoY +141%) and lawn mower robots at 830 million yuan (YoY +229%) [5] - The company is experiencing significant improvements in profitability, with a gross margin of 29.7% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 8.9%, up 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [6] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 51 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with significant contributions from various product categories [4] - Electric two-wheelers generated 2.9 billion yuan in revenue, with sales of 1 million units [5] - The lawn mower robot segment saw revenue of 830 million yuan, indicating strong market penetration [5] Profitability and Efficiency - The company's gross margin improved to 29.7%, while net profit margin reached 8.9% [6] - The report highlights a decrease in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios, contributing to enhanced profitability [6] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 1.8 billion yuan and 2.4 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 3.3 billion yuan [6] - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 25, 18, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in ABC component shipments, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 500% in Q1 2025, and achieved positive operating cash flow for the first time since Q3 2023 [4]. - Despite facing challenges due to declining product prices and a shift in battery technology, the company is expected to leverage its cost and technological advantages to maintain industry leadership [4]. - The company has made substantial investments in N-type ABC component technology, resulting in a dramatic increase in sales volume and a strategic entry into the centralized power station market [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 11.155 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.94% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -5.319 billion yuan, down 802.92% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.136 billion yuan, an increase of 64.53% year-on-year, with a net profit of -300 million yuan, indicating a reduction in losses [1]. Product and Market Development - The company experienced a 33.34% decline in battery cell sales, totaling 25.47 GW, due to a transition in technology and falling prices, leading to a 79.50% drop in revenue from this segment [2]. - Conversely, the sales of ABC components surged by 1194.58% to 6.33 GW in 2024, despite a slight decrease in gross margin [2]. - The company has successfully entered the centralized power station market, securing significant projects both domestically and internationally [3]. Future Projections - The report projects a recovery in net profit for 2025, estimating 247 million yuan, with further increases to 759 million yuan in 2026 and 1.228 billion yuan in 2027 [5]. - The expected revenue growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 86.25%, 14.74%, and 10.81%, respectively [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation summary indicating a projected P/E ratio of 78 for 2025, decreasing to 25 in 2026 and 16 in 2027 [5]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -149.66% in 2024 to 21.22% by 2027 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 69.695 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.86%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.70% to 2.922 billion yuan [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 16.548 billion yuan, up 9.93% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.154 billion yuan, which is a significant increase of 27.39% year-on-year and 288.02% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company’s new effective orders exceeded 100 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 16.88% year-on-year increase, with notable growth in renewable energy and emerging industries [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s main energy equipment sales saw significant increases: hydroelectric generator sets, steam turbines, and wind turbines grew by 12.29%, 30.65%, and 83.63% respectively, reaching 5.77 GW, 40.05 GW, and 8.98 GW [2]. - The revenue from renewable energy equipment and clean efficient energy equipment increased by 19.98% and 37.73% to 16.603 billion yuan and 28.358 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The gross margins for renewable energy and clean efficient energy equipment decreased by 3.17 and 4.12 percentage points to 3.77% and 16.75% respectively due to low-price orders in thermal power and intensified competition in wind energy [2]. Orders and Growth - The company’s new effective orders reached 101.142 billion yuan in 2024, a record high since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with renewable energy equipment and emerging industries growing by 31.66% and 27.88% to 26.489 billion yuan and 14.585 billion yuan respectively [2][3]. - In Q1 2025, the company added new effective orders of 35.881 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.28%, with growth exceeding 30% in clean efficient energy equipment, renewable energy equipment, and engineering and international supply chain industries [2]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company increased its dividend payout ratio to 46.76% in 2024, up by 5.05 percentage points, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [3].

2025 年 5 月 5 日 公司研究 货币资金保持在 500 亿元以上，2025 年 BC 组件出货预计超 20GW ——隆基绿能（601012.SH）2024 年年报&2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报，2024 年实现营业收入 825.82 亿 元，同比-36.23%，实现归母净利润-86.18 亿元，同比-180.15%；2025Q1 实现 营业收入 136.52 亿元，同比-22.75%，实现归母净利润-14.36 亿元，环比减亏。 产品价格下跌致盈利能力下滑，计提减值影响公司业绩。2024 年公司实现硅片 出货量 108.46GW（对外销售 46.55GW），电池组件出货量 82.32GW（在中国、 欧洲集中式市场占有率居首）；在产业链价格持续下跌影响下，公司组件及电池 /硅片及硅棒业务实现营业收入 663.34/82.07 亿元，同比减少 33.13%/66.53%， 毛利率同比减少 12.11/30.19 个 pct 至 6.27%/-14.31%。基于审慎性原则公司 2024 年计提资产减值准备合计 87.01 亿元，阶段性影响公司业绩。 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 52.40 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - The company's inverter business is under pressure, while its power station business is experiencing rapid growth [1]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.542 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.23%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11.32% to 691 million CNY [1][4]. - The company is actively expanding its brand presence and market reach, particularly in emerging markets, while facing increased competition in the European household energy storage sector [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 65.42 billion CNY, with a net profit of 6.91 billion CNY, reflecting a decline in profitability [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant recovery, with revenue of 15.18 billion CNY, up 8.65%, and net profit soaring by 859.78% to 1.95 billion CNY [1]. Business Segments - The grid-connected inverter business generated 37.92 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, down 6.7%, with a gross margin of 18.68% [2]. - The energy storage inverter segment saw a revenue increase of 30.37% to 5.72 billion CNY, although its gross margin decreased by 9.1 percentage points [2]. - The household photovoltaic system business achieved a revenue of 14.64 billion CNY, up 22.65%, while the new energy power generation business revenue surged by 110.99% to 6.17 billion CNY [3]. Market Strategy - The company is committed to a dual-brand strategy with "Jinlang Technology" and "SOLIS," focusing on global expansion and localizing sales and service networks in regions such as Europe, Australia, Southeast Asia, the United States, and Latin America [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downward due to the competitive landscape and subdued demand in Europe, with expected net profits of 1.018 billion CNY, 1.313 billion CNY, and 1.596 billion CNY respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 21, 16, and 13 for 2025-2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown impressive growth in its industrial sector, with continuous improvement in profitability. In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 185.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.69 billion yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year [4][9] - The company’s new projects have driven growth in the industrial sector, and overseas business has seen a significant increase in demand. The revenue from the chemical engineering, infrastructure, environmental governance, and industrial sectors has shown varied growth rates, with the industrial and new materials sector growing by 13.4% [5][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 185.84 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.69 billion yuan, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 5.51 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4.2%, 4.8%, and 6.0% respectively. In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 44.50 billion yuan, net profit of 1.44 billion yuan, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 1.41 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -1.0%, +18.8%, and +22.6% [4][5] Business Segments - The company’s revenue from various segments in 2024 included 152.2 billion yuan from chemical engineering, 20.6 billion yuan from infrastructure, 2.2 billion yuan from environmental governance, 8.8 billion yuan from industrial and new materials, and 1.6 billion yuan from modern services, with respective year-on-year growth rates of +6.9%, -6.4%, -22.1%, +13.4%, and -47.7% [5] Contracting and New Projects - The company signed new contracts worth 366.9 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. The new contracts in chemical engineering, infrastructure, and environmental governance were 276.3 billion yuan, 64.9 billion yuan, and 9.5 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 5.8%, 56.3%, and 19.2% respectively. In Q1 2025, new contracts surged to 59.79 billion yuan, a 60.7% increase year-on-year [6] Profitability and Margins - The company’s gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 10.1% and 3.4%, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 0.7% and 0.01 percentage points. In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 9.3% and the net margin was 3.6%, reflecting increases of 1.29% and 0.58 percentage points year-on-year [7] Cash Flow and Dividends - The company experienced a net outflow of operating cash flow of 8.72 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 4.1 billion yuan compared to the previous year. The proposed dividend for 2024 is 1.86 yuan per share, totaling approximately 1.14 billion yuan, which is a 4.5% increase year-on-year [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted to 6.43 billion yuan and 6.89 billion yuan, representing increases of 8% and 4% respectively. The forecast for 2027 is set at 7.35 billion yuan, maintaining a "Buy" rating [9]

2025 年 5 月 3 日 公司研究 25Q1 业绩承压，关注后续经营改善节奏 ——中炬高新（600872.SH）2025 年一季报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：19.29 元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 7.83 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 151.08 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 16.08/30.20 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 77.88% | 股价相对走势 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -4.37 | -6.52 | -37.70 | | 绝对 | -7.30 | ...

2025 年 5 月 3 日 机构调研策略跟踪：2025 年 4 月，私募调研跟踪策略获取正超额收益。公募调 研选股策略相对中证 800 获取超额收益-2.92%，私募调研跟踪策略相对中证 800 获取超额收益 0.04%。 负面清单：截至 2025 年 4 月 30 日，宽松有息负债率排名前 30 的股票中，中毅 达、指南针、现代投资、春兴精工、思创医惠、华映科技、泉峰汽车、联创电子 在传统口径下排名在 100 及以后。 总量研究 基金抱团减弱，市场情绪降温 ——金融工程量化月报 20250503 要点 市场情绪追踪：截至 2025 年 4 月 30 日，沪深 300 指数上涨家数占比指标近一 个月环比上月下降，上涨家数占比指标低于 60%，市场情绪有所降温；从动量 情绪指标走势来看，近一月快线、慢线向下，快线处于慢线下方，预计在未来一 段时间内将维持谨慎观点；从均线情绪指标来看，短期内沪深 300 指数处于情 绪非景气区间。 基金分离度跟踪：截至 2025 年 4 月 30 日，基金抱团分离度小幅上行，基金抱 团程度减弱。最近一月抱团股超额收益小幅下行，抱团基金超额收益小幅上行。 PB-ROE-50 策略 ...

2025 年 5 月 3 日 公司研究 利润稳健增长，经营质量持续提升 ——徐工机械（000425.SZ）2024 年年报、2025 年一季报点评 要点 净利润稳健增长，净利率持续提升 徐工机械 24 年实现营业收入 916.6 亿元，同比下降 1.3%；归母净利润 59.8 亿元，同比增长 12.2%；经营性现金净流入 57.2 亿元，同比增长 60.2%。毛利 率为 22.5%，同比上升 0.2 个百分点；净利率为 6.5%，同比上升 0.9 个百分点。 公司 25Q1 实现营业收入 268.1 亿元，同比增长 10.9%；归母净利润 20.2 亿元，同比增长 26.4%；经营性现金净流入 8.3 亿元，同比增长 257.2%。毛利 率为 22.1%，同比下降 0.8 个百分点；净利率为 7.6%，同比上升 0.9 个百分点。 传统产业提质增效，新兴产业发展壮大 24 年公司起重机械收入 189.0 亿元，同比下降 10.8%；土方机械收入 240.1 亿元，同比增长 6.4%；混凝土机械收入 94.1 亿元，同比下降 9.8%；高空作业 机械收入 86.8 亿元，同比下降 2.3%；矿业机械收入 63. ...