Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market - A" with a maintained rating [4] Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in domestic CPU technology with the launch of Longxin 3C6000 processors, achieving a performance improvement of 60%-110% compared to previous generations [1] - Micron Technology reported a record revenue of $9.3 billion for Q3 2025, driven by strong demand for NAND and HBM products, with a 50% increase in HBM revenue [3] - Xiaomi's AI glasses were launched, weighing only 40 grams and featuring a 12MP camera, indicating a growing trend in the AI glasses market, which is expected to see rapid expansion [2] Industry Performance - The electronic sector saw a 4.61% increase in the week of June 23-29, 2025, ranking 7th among 31 industries [9][25] - The absolute return for the electronic sector over 12 months is 35.3%, with a relative return of 21.7% [6] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to focus on include Shenghong Technology, Huadian Co., and other key players in the AI glasses and storage sectors [10]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the A-share market is currently in a "new victory over the old" phase of economic transformation, characterized by a shift towards new technologies and consumption patterns, with significant performance in sectors like AI, military technology, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5][61][65] - The report indicates that the market has shown resilience despite economic pressures, with a projected GDP growth target of around 5% for the year, supported by low interest rates and a favorable policy environment [1][51][52] - The report notes that the current market dynamics reflect a "barbell strategy," where investments are concentrated in high-dividend stocks and new economy sectors, indicating a structural shift in investor preferences [2][61] Group 2 - The report discusses the recent performance of various indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91%, the ChiNext Index increasing by 5.69%, and the Hang Seng Index up by 3.20%, indicating a strong market sentiment [17][13] - It mentions that the active equity funds have shown significant inflows, particularly in sectors aligned with new economic trends, while traditional sectors have lagged behind [37][41][52] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the balance between equity and bond investments, as the low interest rate environment has led to a notable shift in asset allocation strategies among institutional investors [3][35][43] Group 3 - The report outlines three potential scenarios for the market in the second half of the year, drawing parallels with previous years (2019, 2020, and 2024) to assess the likelihood of continued growth and sector rotation [4][66][69] - It highlights the ongoing transformation of the Chinese economy, with a focus on the increasing share of new economic sectors in GDP, which is expected to stabilize growth and support market performance [51][61][65] - The report also points out that the consumer sector, particularly new consumption trends, has outperformed traditional consumption indices, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior and preferences [61][62][68]

周观点：央行强调加大收储推进力度 央行召开 2025 年第二季度例会，房地产层面，会议要求着力推动已 出台金融政策措施落地见效，加大存量商品房和存量土地盘活力度， 持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势，完善房地产金融基础性制度，助力构 建房地产发展新模式。 我们认为，在当前 5、6 月，房地产复苏动能减弱，市场下行压力增 加的背景下，7 月将迎来新一轮的政策宽松周期，今年以来出台的包 括收储、城中村改造及对房企的融资宽松政策，预计在三季度将加大 实施力度，助力行业止跌回稳。建议关注困境反转类房企：金地集团、 新城控股等；保持拿地强度的龙头招商蛇口、绿城中国、保利发展、 滨江集团等；多元经营稳健发展的地方国企浦东金桥、外高桥等。 销售回顾（6.21-6.27） 重点监测 32 城合计成交总套数为 2.4 万套，环比上周增长 41%；2025 年累计成交总套数为 40.6 万套，累计同比下降 4.6%。其中，一线城 市成交 6085 套，环比上周增长 36.2%，2025 年累计成交 11.6 万套， 累计同比增长 9.6%；二线城市成交 15455 套，环比上周增长 47.4%， 2025 年累计成交 24.2 万套，累 ...

2025 年 06 月 29 日 计算机 政策持续推进，加快建设加密货币新生态 大陆：数字人民币和稳定币双管齐下，RWA 成为重要金融工具 美国：GENIUS 法案获参议院通过，金融生态持续拓展 6 月 17 日，美国参议院以 61 票赞成、37 票反对的表决结果通过了 《指导和建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》（简称 GENIUS 法案）。这是 美国国会首次在参议院层面通过专门针对稳定币的监管立法，。6 月 25 日，美国联邦住房金融署(FHFA)命令住房贷款机构，考虑将加密 货币作为住宅抵押贷款风险评估的资产。这一指令有望继续推动加 密货币在美国普及。此外，美国加密货币交易所 Coinbase 宣布成为 首个获得 CFTC（美国商品期货交易委员会）批准，提供 24/7 全天候 比特币和以太坊期货交易的合规平台。我们认为，伴随 GENIUS 法案 的推进，以及加密货币衍生品和抵押贷款等金融工具的推出，美国加 密货币金融生态持续拓展。 香港：发布数字资产发展政策宣言 2.0，政策体系逐渐完善 6 月 26 日，香港特区政府发表《香港数字资产发展政策宣言 2.0》， 重申特区政府致力将香港打造成数字资产领域中的全球创 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Divergence-Based Turning Points - **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies potential price turning points by observing divergences between price trends and volume or technical indicators (e.g., MACD). Divergences signal weakening momentum, suggesting a possible reversal in the price trend [2][9]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Identify price making new highs or lows. 2. Check if corresponding volume or MACD fails to make new highs or lows, indicating divergence. 3. Confirm divergence using additional signals: - For MACD, use green bar shortening or yellow/white line crossover for confirmation [10]. - Apply wave theory to filter valid signals by identifying five-wave structures in trends [14][16]. 4. Combine divergence signals with moving averages to determine market conditions (e.g., bull or bear market) [14][16]. - **Model Evaluation**: Divergence signals alone have a success rate of less than 55% for predicting turning points. However, combining them with wave theory and moving averages improves accuracy to over 65% [13][16][17]. 2. Model Name: V-Shaped Reversal Turning Points - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the "Temperature Indicator" to measure the degree of price deviation from moving averages, identifying extreme conditions that may signal V-shaped reversals [3][18][19]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate a moving average (e.g., 60-day for short-term trends, annual for long-term trends). 2. Shift the moving average left by half its parameter length. 3. Linearly extrapolate the last two points of the shifted moving average. 4. Compute the deviation (bias) of each price point from the extrapolated moving average. 5. Calculate the percentile rank of the deviation over a rolling window to derive the "Temperature Indicator," which ranges from 0 to 100 [18][19]. 6. Define thresholds for identifying turning points: - In bear markets, both high-frequency and low-frequency temperature indicators must fall below 10. - In range-bound markets, only the high-frequency indicator below 10 is sufficient. - In bull markets, consider additional risks and adjust thresholds (e.g., high-frequency indicator below 15 or 10) [19][21][26]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies turning points in various market conditions but requires adjustments for bull markets to account for strong trends and potential false signals [27][28]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Divergence-Based Turning Points - **Accuracy**: Basic divergence signals have a success rate below 55% but improve to over 65% when combined with wave theory and moving averages [13][16][17]. 2. V-Shaped Reversal Turning Points - **Bear Market**: High-frequency and low-frequency temperature indicators below 10 successfully identified rebounds in January, February, and April 2022, each lasting over a month [21]. - **Range-Bound Market**: High-frequency temperature indicator below 10 identified rebounds in January and April 2025 during a three-quarter-long consolidation phase [22][25]. - **Bull Market**: High-frequency temperature indicator below 10 or 15 identified five strong buying opportunities in gold futures from 2023 to 2025 [26]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Temperature Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures price deviation from moving averages to identify extreme overbought or oversold conditions [18][19]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use a moving average (e.g., 60-day or annual) to represent the trend. 2. Shift the moving average left by half its parameter length. 3. Linearly extrapolate the last two points of the shifted moving average. 4. Calculate the deviation (bias) of each price point from the extrapolated moving average. 5. Compute the percentile rank of the deviation over a rolling window to derive the factor value, ranging from 0 to 100 [18][19]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively identifies extreme market conditions but requires different thresholds for bear, range-bound, and bull markets to optimize performance [19][21][26]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Temperature Indicator - **Bear Market**: High-frequency and low-frequency indicators below 10 identified rebounds in January, February, and April 2022 [21]. - **Range-Bound Market**: High-frequency indicator below 10 identified rebounds in January and April 2025 [22][25]. - **Bull Market**: High-frequency indicator below 10 or 15 identified five strong buying opportunities in gold futures from 2023 to 2025 [26].

- The report mentions the "Four-Engine Model" as a quantitative model used to identify potential opportunities in various industry sectors[6][13] - The "Four-Engine Model" suggests focusing on sectors such as computers, automobiles, machinery, pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, media, electronics, and telecommunications based on recent market signals and Sharpe ratio rankings[6][13] - The model evaluates sectors based on metrics like recent signal dates, potential profit-effect anomalies, and Sharpe ratio rankings over the past year[13]

Group 1: Historical Consumption Trends in the U.S. - From 1960 to 1990, the Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) effectively explained consumer behavior, but its validity diminished post-2000 due to financial innovations and external shocks[2] - The average consumption propensity in the U.S. has fluctuated between 85% and 96%, indicating a consumption-driven economy[27] - The financial crisis of 2008 led to a significant drop in consumption propensity, which only began to recover in 2013 but remained below pre-crisis levels[30] Group 2: Factors Influencing Consumption - Tax cuts and financial innovations have historically boosted U.S. consumer propensity, suggesting similar strategies could benefit China amid its aging population[2] - The wealth effect, particularly from real estate, has a dual impact on consumption, with rising home values increasing spending capacity while high mortgage burdens suppress it[61] - Rising rental costs have increased the share of disposable income spent on housing, from under 22% in 2001 to nearly 30% in 2023, further constraining consumer spending[64] Group 3: Policy Implications - U.S. consumption policies, including tax reductions and unemployment benefits, have been crucial in stimulating economic growth during downturns[36] - The expansion of social security and healthcare spending has a positive correlation with consumption propensity, although recent stagnation in these areas may limit future growth[69] - The shift in monetary policy frameworks has led to a greater reliance on current income rather than long-term expectations, affecting consumer behavior[54]

Group 1 - The report outlines three potential market scenarios for the second half of the year, drawing parallels to 2019, 2020, and 2024, with the 2019 comparison being the most accepted [1][9] - The 2020 scenario emphasizes a bull market driven by synchronized policy responses from the US, Europe, and China, with a focus on large-cap growth assets [1][33] - The 2024 scenario suggests a potential double bottom formation, with a focus on high-dividend strategies, although it does not currently indicate a clear risk of a second bottom for A-shares [2][49] Group 2 - The 2019 comparison highlights a market characterized by a "push-up" pattern, with a rotation between consumption and technology sectors, driven by improving confidence in the transition from old to new economic drivers [3][15] - The report notes that the current market is experiencing a similar structural rotation as seen in 2019, with significant contributions from new consumption and technology sectors [3][29] - The analysis indicates that the current market environment is in a phase where new economic trends are expected to outperform old ones, particularly in sectors like hardware technology and new consumption models [4][49] Group 3 - The 2020 comparison points out that the market's recovery was supported by a global liquidity influx and a rebound in exports, which is not currently mirrored due to reduced reliance on US trade [33][38] - The report emphasizes that the structural characteristics of the 2020 market included a focus on large-cap growth and high-profit certainty, which attracted institutional investment [42][44] - The 2024 scenario indicates that while there are structural challenges, the domestic economy is expected to stabilize, with a target growth rate of around 5% achievable despite potential fluctuations [49][53]

Economic Performance - In May, the general public budget revenue growth rate was 0.1%, a significant drop of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Tax revenue decreased by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first negative growth since 2024[4] - Government fund income in May fell by 7.8% year-on-year, a decline of 15.5 percentage points from the previous month[5] Fiscal Policy and Market Impact - The decline in fiscal growth in May is expected to negatively impact total demand, with potential economic downtrends due to reduced exports and fiscal spending[6] - Government fund expenditure growth in May was 9.1%, down 35.2 percentage points from April, indicating a significant reduction in fiscal strength[6] - The low inflation environment is likely to persist in the short term, adversely affecting corporate profits, household income, and consumption[11] Asset Allocation Insights - The bond market is expected to see yields decline further in a low inflation environment, while dividend stocks continue to outperform[10] - The current liquidity in the financial market is relatively abundant, driven by strong bank credit lending intentions[11] - The performance of different asset classes reflects market pricing in a low inflation environment, with a focus on policy responses to inflation[10] Geopolitical and Policy Considerations - Geopolitical risks and unexpected policy changes remain significant risk factors for the economic outlook[3] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting maintained the federal funds target rate, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties[15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dingjie Smart is maintained at "Buy-A" with a 12-month target price of 44.50 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 32.64 CNY [4]. Core Insights - Dingjie Smart held the 2025 Smart Future Summit, showcasing its advancements in AI and big data, emphasizing the integration of AI into business operations to enhance productivity and competitiveness [1][2]. - The company introduced two major AI suites, the Smart Data Suite and the Enterprise Intelligent Agent Generation Suite, which form the Athena platform's foundational infrastructure for AI applications [2]. - Dingjie Smart aims to integrate AI capabilities into four major industrial software systems (ERP, PLM, MES, WMS), promoting automation and intelligent decision-making within enterprises [3][7]. Financial Projections - The projected revenues for Dingjie Smart from 2025 to 2027 are 25.89 billion CNY, 29.03 billion CNY, and 33.09 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits expected to be 2.01 billion CNY, 2.49 billion CNY, and 2.94 billion CNY [9]. - The company anticipates a net profit margin increase from 6.7% in 2023 to 8.9% by 2027, indicating improved profitability [11][12]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a relative return of -5.7% over the past month and an absolute return of -6.3%, but a significant increase of 85.2% over the past year [5].