结合产业动态和市场表现，我们近期内推荐关注： 证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*专题报告 2025 年 08 月 04 日 投资策略研究 潜龙勿用也勿疑——周度策略行业配置观点 一周热点事件复盘：中美对等关税实施暂缓，中国 7 月政治局会议节奏 平稳，中国网信办就 H20 安全问题约谈英伟达，美国降息预期再度推迟。 本周（2025 年 7 月 28 日-2025 年 8 月 1 日）A 股在诸多不及预期的因素 下发生回调，多数主要指数收跌，上证指数周跌 0.94%，深证成指周跌 1.58%，创业板指周跌 0.74%，科创 50 周跌 1.65%，全市场日均成交额 1.81 万亿元，显示当前市场分歧较大。宏观驱动因素方面，中美同意将对等关 税暂停措施展期 90 天，缓解短期贸易摩擦担忧。此前美方"对等关税" 原定 8 月 1 日生效，展期降低出口产业链不确定性。而在国内政策端，7 月政治局会议强调"宏观政策持续发力、适时加力"，未提增量刺激，重 心转向"落实落细现有政策"。会议首次提出"推进重点行业产能治理"， 推动钢铁、建材等周期板块后半周回调。本周 A 股在内外因素交织下呈现 "科技强、周期弱"的分化格局。中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Telecom, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% in the next six months [5][18]. Core Viewpoints - China Telecom is upgrading its corporate strategy to embrace artificial intelligence (AI) and enhance its cloud services, transitioning from "cloud transformation" to "intelligent cloud transformation" [2][3]. - The company is leveraging its cloud-network integration to offer comprehensive computing and networking services, aiming to reduce costs and improve efficiency [2]. - China Telecom has established the "AI Investment Alliance" to support foundational technology research and industry application projects, indicating a commitment to innovation and collaboration [3]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 545.0 billion, 570.7 billion, and 598.0 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 4.1%, 4.7%, and 4.8% [3]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 35.1 billion, 36.9 billion, and 38.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.5%, 5.1%, and 4.9% [3]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to increase from 0.38 yuan in 2025 to 0.42 yuan in 2027 [3]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 19.0 in 2025 to 17.2 in 2027, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 1.4 to 1.3 over the same period [3].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the coexistence of strategic opportunities and risk challenges in the economic landscape, marking a shift from short-term recovery to long-term foundation building in policy focus [1][2] - It highlights the need for macroeconomic policies to accelerate bond issuance and ensure the stability of three key areas, while also advocating for targeted support in sectors like technology and consumption [1][2] - The report notes a renewed emphasis on boosting domestic demand by fostering new growth points in service consumption, linking the improvement of people's livelihoods directly to consumption expansion [1][2] Group 2 - The report identifies three significant breakthroughs in industrial policy, transitioning from conceptual advocacy to practical implementation, addressing market pain points, and institutionalizing capacity governance [2] - In the foreign trade sector, it discusses a balanced approach of defense and progress, promoting high-level free trade zone construction and the integration of domestic and foreign trade [2] - The report outlines a proactive approach to risk resolution, focusing on eliminating hidden debts and ensuring energy supply to safeguard people's livelihoods [2] Group 3 - Domestic economic data shows stability and resilience, with previous growth stabilization policies gradually taking effect, while new macro policies are expected to further stimulate demand [3] - The report indicates that August will be a critical period for verifying mid-year performance, with a focus on sectors and stocks that may exceed expectations [3] - It mentions that despite increased market risk factors, the positive momentum from policies remains unchanged, particularly in the technology sector, which includes areas like computing power, artificial intelligence, and consumer electronics [3] Group 4 - The report recommends a stock portfolio for August, highlighting strong performers from July, including Dingjie Zhishi (+43.58%) and Lianrui New Materials (+25.03%), among others [6] - The recommended stocks for August cover various sectors, including telecommunications, technology, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals, indicating a diversified investment strategy [6][14] - The report notes that the average increase in the recommended portfolio for July was +10.71%, outperforming major indices [6][12]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Outcomes - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the July 29-30 meeting, with no rate cuts so far this year[1] - Market expectations for rate cuts this year have decreased from 2 times to 1 time following the meeting, aligning with the Fed's cautious stance[1] - The Fed acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity in the first half of the year, shifting from a previous optimistic outlook[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Risks - The U.S. GDP grew by 3% in Q2, reversing a -0.5% contraction in Q1, with net exports contributing positively[6] - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49% in June, indicating slight improvement but still in contraction territory[6] - The July CPI year-on-year was reported at 2.7%, with inflation expectations for the next year dropping to 4.4%[7] - Risks include financial instability, unexpected Fed policy changes, geopolitical conflicts, and potential inflation rebounds[14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several stocks in the robotics and AI sectors, including 沪电股份 (002463.SZ), 美格智能 (002881.SZ), 中际旭创 (300308.SZ), 天孚通信 (300394.SZ), and others [1]. Core Insights - The domestic robotics industry is accelerating its expansion, particularly in humanoid robots, with significant orders being secured and companies like 宇树科技 initiating IPO guidance [2][25]. - The report highlights three main directions for the humanoid robotics industry: rapid order fulfillment by leading companies, acceleration of the listing process for companies like 宇树科技 and 智元机器人, and continuous product iterations by various manufacturers [25][34]. - The launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT Agent is expected to drive the commercialization of AI agents and increase downstream computing power demand [21][23]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The communication sector index fell by 0.77%, underperforming the broader market, which saw the 沪深 300 index rise by 1.69% [13]. - The report notes that the telecommunications business revenue reached 905.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1% [46]. Robotics Industry Developments - Significant orders for humanoid robots have been secured, including a 90.51 million yuan project by 优必选科技 and a 124 million yuan order won by 智元机器人 and 宇树科技 [18][27]. - 宇树科技 has begun its IPO guidance process, with a significant stake held by its controlling shareholder [29]. - New products have been launched, such as 优必选's Walker S2, which features a rapid battery swap technology, and 宇树科技's Unitree R1, which integrates advanced AI capabilities [19][33]. AI Agent Insights - The ChatGPT Agent, launched by OpenAI, is designed to autonomously execute tasks based on user commands, showcasing a high accuracy rate in various assessments [22][39]. - The report emphasizes the potential for AI agents to enhance computing power demand across various sectors, including light modules and PCB manufacturing [23][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting on July 30, 2025, emphasized the key node of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and continued the "Four Stabilities" policy line. The macro - policy was updated to "continue to exert force and add force in a timely manner", and for the first time proposed to "strengthen the consistency of macro - policy orientation" [1]. - Fiscal policy continued with a more proactive stance, with a more precise requirement on the pace of force exertion. The fiscal acceleration had shown multi - dimensional boosting effects on the economic fundamentals, and the GDP growth rate in the second quarter reached 5.2%. Monetary policy maintained a "moderately loose" stance and focused on precise investment through structural policy tools [2]. - In terms of domestic demand, it emphasized the linkage between people's livelihood and consumption and the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption. In the aspect of deepening reform, it continued to focus on "anti - involution" and related work. The meeting's tone on the bond market was focused on policy continuity and structural optimization, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was expected to return to rationality, possibly back to the 1.7% central level [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Policy Background and General Tone - The meeting on July 30, 2025, not only deployed the economic work for the second half of the year but also emphasized the key node of the "15th Five - Year Plan". It continued the "Four Stabilities" policy line of the April meeting and emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability. The macro - policy was updated from "continue to exert force and be more powerful" to "continue to exert force and add force in a timely manner" and proposed to strengthen the consistency of macro - policy orientation [1]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy - Continued the "more proactive fiscal policy" tone, and required to speed up the issuance and use of government bonds and improve capital use efficiency. From January to June 2025, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 2.6 trillion yuan, of which 2.16 trillion yuan was special bonds; the total issuance of local government bonds was 5.49 trillion yuan, of which 4.31 trillion yuan was special bonds. The progress of the 4.4 - trillion - yuan special bond quota arranged in the "Government Work Report" had exceeded 90%. The fiscal acceleration had boosted the economic fundamentals, and the second - quarter GDP growth rate reached 5.2% [2]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - Maintained a "moderately loose" stance, aiming to keep liquidity abundant and drive down the comprehensive social financing cost, especially supporting industries such as "technological innovation, boosting consumption, small and micro - enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade". This year, it relied more on structural policy tools for more precise investment [2]. 3.4 Domestic Demand and Reform - In terms of domestic demand, it emphasized the linkage between people's livelihood and consumption, and the need to "cultivate new growth points in service consumption". In the aspect of deepening reform, it continued to focus on "anti - involution", requiring in - depth promotion of the construction of a unified national market, improvement of market competition order, and governance of disorderly competition among enterprises and over - capacity in key industries [3]. 3.5 Impact on the Bond Market - The meeting's tone was focused on policy continuity and structural optimization, and the incremental stimulus layout met market expectations. The short - term expectation disturbance to the bond market might come to an end, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was expected to return to rationality. Without new interest - rate cut expectations, it might return to the 1.7% central level, or even be in the range of 1.65% - 1.7% when funds were loose [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Hunan Haili, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][15][23]. Core Views - The report highlights the company's recovery in quarterly performance, driven by new base construction and technological upgrades at existing facilities. It anticipates revenue growth and improved profitability in the coming years [3][10][15]. - Hunan Haili's agricultural pesticide and lithium battery materials segments are currently facing short-term pressures due to price declines, but the company is implementing differentiated pricing strategies to mitigate these impacts [3][10][11]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Projections**: Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2,700 million, 2,937 million, and 3,229 million CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.3%, 8.8%, and 9.9% [15][16]. - **Net Profit Projections**: Forecasted net profits for the same years are 311 million, 374 million, and 465 million CNY, with growth rates of 17.1%, 20.2%, and 24.5% [15][16]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.56, 0.67, and 0.83 CNY respectively [15][16]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: The P/E ratios for the next three years are projected to be 14.0, 11.6, and 9.3 [15][16]. Business Operations - The company is actively enhancing its production capabilities through the construction of new bases and upgrades to existing facilities, which are expected to improve production efficiency and open new growth avenues [12][13][15]. - Hunan Haili is focusing on diversifying its sales strategies to adapt to the competitive agricultural market, including expanding its international market presence and establishing long-term partnerships with multinational companies [10][11]. Market Position - In 2024, Hunan Haili ranked 36th among the top 100 pesticide companies in China and 22nd among the top 50 pesticide exporters, indicating a strong market position [10].

Economic Outlook - The overall economic development is viewed more optimistically, with the second quarter GDP growth at 5.2%, indicating a strong performance against external uncertainties[1][7] - The meeting's language shifted from "external shocks increasing" to "reducing negative impacts from external uncertainties," suggesting positive signals in China-US trade relations[1][7] Policy Adjustments - Macro policy is now described as "sustained efforts and timely enhancements," indicating a continued loose policy stance but with less urgency for immediate action[2][8] - The focus is on improving the efficiency of government bond issuance and maintaining liquidity to lower financing costs, with a macro leverage ratio exceeding 300% in Q2[2][8] Fiscal and Monetary Coordination - Emphasis on the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to prevent idle capital while ensuring sufficient liquidity[2][8] - The likelihood of additional government bond issuance in the second half of the year is reduced due to optimistic economic forecasts, although actual economic conditions may still necessitate it[2][8] Structural Reforms - The meeting highlighted the need for deepening reforms to enhance industrial quality and efficiency, with potential policies aimed at optimizing capacity and stabilizing prices[3][9] - There is a shift in real estate policy focus from new developments to urban renewal, which may better stimulate demand in the existing housing market[3][9] Risks and Observations - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic macroeconomic policies and the possibility of concentrated credit events[3][9] - The third quarter is identified as a critical observation window for assessing the effectiveness of these policies and their impact on the economy[3][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer in the small and medium-sized display panel sector, with a diversified display layout that includes LCD, AMOLED, and MicroLED technologies. It is expected to benefit from the recovery in demand for automotive and consumer electronics, as well as the growth of flexible OLED and MicroLED segments [1][9]. - The company has shown a significant improvement in profitability, with forecasts indicating a return to profitability in the coming years, driven by high-margin non-consumer businesses and improved operational efficiency [28][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company specializes in the design, manufacturing, and sales of display devices and related materials, including LCD, AMOLED, OLED, and MicroLED panels, primarily used in mobile phones, automotive displays, IT displays, and professional displays [1][13]. - It has maintained a leading position in various display application markets, including TFT automotive displays and LTPS smartphone displays, with a strong global presence [1]. 2. Demand Side Analysis - The consumer electronics sector is experiencing a recovery, with smartphone demand gradually improving, supported by government subsidies. The automotive electronics market is also growing due to the rise of electric vehicles and the increasing penetration of smart cockpit technologies [2][39]. - The report highlights that the global smartphone display panel market is expected to grow, with AMOLED panels gaining market share over traditional LCDs [49][50]. 3. Supply Side Analysis - The report notes that the concentration of LCD production capacity is shifting towards mainland China, enhancing the competitive landscape and stabilizing profitability in the LCD panel industry [3]. - The domestic OLED production capacity is rapidly expanding, with local manufacturers increasing their market share, which is expected to create new growth opportunities for the company [3][9]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 312 million, 500 million, and 601 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.13, 0.20, and 0.24 yuan [9]. - The report anticipates that the company will continue to benefit from the recovery in downstream demand, optimized market competition, and the release of new production capacities, particularly in the automotive and professional display sectors [9].

Economic Outlook - The meeting emphasizes that the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is a critical phase for achieving socialist modernization, highlighting the coexistence of strategic opportunities and risks [3][4] - The economic foundation is stable, with advantages in market size, industrial systems, and talent resources, supporting a long-term positive trend [3][4] - The focus has shifted from short-term recovery to long-term foundational strengthening, incorporating "new quality productivity" as a core indicator for high-quality development [4] Macro Policy - The meeting calls for sustained and timely macro policy efforts, with an emphasis on the consistency of fiscal and monetary policies [5][6] - Fiscal policy aims to accelerate government bond issuance and ensure the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level, while monetary policy focuses on maintaining liquidity and reducing financing costs [5] - The importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of capital markets is reiterated [5] Domestic Demand - The meeting stresses the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, linking the improvement of people's livelihoods directly to consumption expansion [6] - There is a shift in investment focus from government-led infrastructure to a dual-driven approach involving both public and private capital [6] Industrial Policy - The meeting introduces measures to govern disorderly competition and emphasizes the role of technological innovation in leading new quality productivity [7][9] - It calls for the regulation of local investment attraction behaviors and reinforces the support for private enterprises [7] Foreign Trade - The meeting highlights the construction of high-level free trade pilot zones and the promotion of integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [8] - It balances defensive and proactive strategies, emphasizing support for foreign trade enterprises while fostering institutional openness [8] Risk Mitigation - The meeting mandates a prohibition on new hidden debts and emphasizes the orderly clearance of local financing platforms [11] - It shifts focus from short-term inventory reduction in real estate to high-quality urban renewal and solidifying agricultural foundations [11]