Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][19]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 2,939 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 14% [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach 687 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 35.3% [3][10]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence and product offerings, particularly in the OTC segment, which has seen a revenue increase of 64% year-on-year [5][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 1,942 million yuan - 2024: 2,578 million yuan (growth rate: 32.7%) - 2025: 2,939 million yuan (growth rate: 14.0%) - 2026: 3,568 million yuan (growth rate: 21.4%) - 2027: 4,243 million yuan (growth rate: 18.9%) [3][11]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as: - 2023: 383 million yuan - 2024: 508 million yuan (growth rate: 32.6%) - 2025: 687 million yuan (growth rate: 35.3%) - 2026: 902 million yuan (growth rate: 31.4%) - 2027: 1,106 million yuan (growth rate: 22.5%) [3][11]. - Key financial ratios include: - Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 14.1% in 2023 to 27.1% in 2027 [3][11]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.55 yuan in 2023 to 1.58 yuan in 2027 [3][11]. Strategic Developments - The company has signed a collaboration agreement with Zhejiang University to establish a joint research center, investing a total of 20 million yuan [2][4]. - The focus on AI and traditional medicine aims to enhance product development and market competitiveness, particularly in the health and wellness sector [4][10]. Market Positioning - The company is enhancing its OTC product matrix and has implemented various strategies to improve sales efficiency and market penetration [5][10]. - The core products, including Wuling Capsules and Lingze Tablets, are positioned as essential items in the national basic drug catalog, indicating strong market demand and growth potential [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5][18]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a performance recovery that exceeds expectations, with growth potential still present in the mid-term [1]. - The recovery in the cottonseed business is a significant factor contributing to the strong performance in the first half of the year, supported by favorable market conditions [2]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the plant extract sector, with stable profitability from key products and a strategic plan that is progressing steadily [9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company expects to achieve revenues of 6,872 million yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 9.1%. Projections for 2024 and 2025 show revenues of 6,994 million yuan and 7,064 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 1.8% and 1.0% [1]. - **Net Profit**: The forecasted net profit for 2023 is 480 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.5%. However, a significant drop is expected in 2024, with a projected net profit of 94 million yuan, reflecting an 80.4% decline. A recovery is anticipated in 2025, with a net profit of 346 million yuan, representing a growth of 268.1% [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.99 yuan in 2023, dropping to 0.19 yuan in 2024, and recovering to 0.72 yuan in 2025 [1][9]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: The P/E ratio is expected to be 13.7 in 2023, soaring to 70.0 in 2024, and then stabilizing at 19.0 in 2025 [1][9]. Market Conditions - The cottonseed market is showing a stable upward trend, which has positively impacted the company's performance in the first half of the year [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from multiple growth drivers, including increased product volume, improved efficiency in overseas plantations, and a growing demand for health products [2].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June 2025, the CPI showed a marginal improvement with a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, reversing four months of negative growth[2] - The month-on-month CPI decline narrowed from -0.2% in May to -0.1% in June, slightly above the average decline of -0.18% from 2020 to 2024[2] - Core CPI rose to 0.7%, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month, the highest in nearly 14 months[2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI in June 2025 decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to May, marking four consecutive months of increasing decline[2] - Month-on-month, the PPI remained at -0.4%, indicating persistent downward pressure on industrial prices[2] - Factors contributing to PPI decline include abundant supply in domestic raw material manufacturing, seasonal price decreases, and reduced demand for thermal coal due to increased green energy[2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Despite a slight rebound in CPI, consumer demand remains weak, and PPI continues to face downward pressure due to supply-demand imbalances and intensified competition among enterprises[3] - The central government's recent emphasis on regulating low-price competition may help improve supply-demand structures and provide some support for future price stability[3] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic macroeconomic policies, unexpected interest rate changes, and concentrated credit events that could impact CPI and PPI forecasts[4]

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant investment opportunity in the AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) industry, driven by OpenAI's agreement to lease 4.5 GW of computing power from Oracle for approximately $30 billion annually, marking one of the largest cloud service contracts in the AI sector [1][22][25] - Alibaba Cloud is expanding its data center footprint, with plans to invest over $53 billion in cloud computing and AI infrastructure over the next three years, indicating strong growth potential in the Chinese cloud market [1][16][26] - The Chinese intelligent computing center market is projected to reach an investment scale of 288.6 billion yuan by 2028, reflecting a robust growth trajectory with a 90% year-on-year increase in 2023 [1][17][36] Group 2 - The demand for AI servers is driving upgrades in PCB (Printed Circuit Board) technology, with the global AI/HPC server PCB market expected to grow from nearly $800 million in 2023 to $1.9 billion in 2024, representing a 150% increase [1][18][19] - The report notes that AI servers require higher power specifications, leading to advancements in server power supply PCBs, which are expected to significantly outpace growth in other PCB sectors [1][5][18] - The performance enhancements in AI edge devices necessitate continuous upgrades in PCB technology, with a forecasted compound annual growth rate of 3.6% in global wearable device shipments by 2028 [1][19][36] Group 3 - The communication sector index experienced a slight decline of 0.10%, underperforming against the broader market, which saw a 1.54% increase in the CSI 300 index [3][11] - Key recommended stocks in the communication sector include China Mobile, China Telecom, and several technology firms, indicating a focus on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing digital transformation [1][20][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in promoting the development of data centers and intelligent computing infrastructure, which are crucial for supporting the growth of AI technologies [1][28][33]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][50]. Core Insights - Breakthroughs in electrolyzer technology have been observed, and the hydrogen heavy-duty truck sector is gradually maturing. The newly awarded electrolyzer projects are still primarily alkaline, but both PEM and AEM electrolyzer technologies have made significant advancements. It is recommended to pay attention to companies at the forefront of electrolyzer technology [2][40]. - The midstream sector is accelerating the development of hydrogen transportation and utilization, promoting the construction of hydrogen refueling stations. Companies with hydrogen transportation capabilities are recommended for attention [2][40]. - Transportation applications are leading the gradual maturation of the hydrogen fuel cell industry ecosystem, with a recommendation to focus on hydrogen vehicle companies related to heavy-duty trucks [2][40]. Industry Performance - As of July 4, 2025, the hydrogen energy index closed at 2135.09 points, with a weekly change of 1.03% and a year-to-date change of 20.16%. The hydrogen energy index ranked 53rd among the Shenwan secondary industry rankings this week, showing a significant decline [8][14]. - The TTM price-to-earnings ratio of the hydrogen energy index is 24.66 times, and the MRQ price-to-book ratio is 1.60 times as of July 4, 2025 [11][13]. Company Dynamics - The top five companies in the hydrogen energy sector by weekly increase are Xuedilong (31.74%), Kaimeteqi (27.46%), Shengdexintai (22.40%), Zhongcai Technology (20.71%), and Huaguang Huaneng (20.06%). The top three companies by weekly decrease are Guangzhi Technology (-15.82%), Taihe Technology (-9.40%), and Xinxunda (-9.13%) [14][16]. - This week, there were 9 awarded projects in the hydrogen energy sector, with 3 electrolyzer bidding projects totaling 520 MW and a total hydrogen production capacity of 104,000 Nm³/h [17][18]. Industry Dynamics - Significant developments include the approval of the first cross-province green hydrogen pipeline in Inner Mongolia and the launch of hydrogen two-wheelers in Dongguan. These initiatives are part of broader efforts to promote hydrogen energy as a strategic industry [35][36]. - Internationally, Morocco's large-scale green hydrogen project is making progress, and Uzbekistan's Tashkent green hydrogen project has successfully achieved hydrogen production [36][37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [13] Core Viewpoints - The passage of the "big beautiful" bill in the U.S. is expected to negatively impact the domestic new energy vehicle industry, potentially widening the gap between China and the U.S. in this sector [1] - The cancellation of tax credits for new energy vehicles in the U.S. may reduce consumer enthusiasm for choosing electric vehicles over gasoline vehicles, especially as solid-state batteries remain in the early stages of commercialization and are costly [1] - The U.S. Department of Energy's efforts to reduce reliance on foreign entities, particularly from China, in the battery manufacturing sector may hinder local energy storage projects [2] - Chinese battery manufacturers are gaining global competitiveness, with companies like BYD and CATL showing significant growth in battery installation volumes [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: U.S. Policy Impact - The "big beautiful" bill modifies previous incentives for the new energy industry, likely leading to a decline in the U.S. electric vehicle market [1] - The removal of tax incentives could diminish consumer interest in electric vehicles, impacting sales and market dynamics [1] Section 2: Energy Storage and Supply Chain - The new legislation may exclude Chinese suppliers from U.S. energy storage projects, complicating the supply chain for local integrators [2] - Chinese companies dominate the global energy storage battery market, accounting for over 90% of shipments, which poses challenges for U.S. manufacturers [2] Section 3: Chinese Battery Manufacturers - Chinese battery companies are improving their global market positions, with BYD entering the top five in global battery installations [3] - CATL maintains a leading market share, indicating strong competitive advantages for Chinese firms in the battery sector [3] - Tesla's collaboration with CATL for localized production in the U.S. is expected to benefit from federal and state manufacturing subsidies [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4] Core Views - The company has achieved continuous revenue and profit growth for five consecutive years, demonstrating strong operational resilience and sustainable business model [2][3] - The acquisition of Yingu Pharmaceutical allows the company to enter the high-barrier nasal spray market, with significant growth potential anticipated from the core product, phenylquinhydramine nasal spray [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the aging population in China, leading to an expansion in the orthopedic medication market [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 3,311 million yuan in 2023 to 5,111 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.6% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 568 million yuan in 2023 to 1,099 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 13.0% [1] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to remain strong, increasing from 20.3% in 2023 to 24.4% in 2027 [1] Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on channel expansion and differentiation to enhance loyalty and resource allocation in retail pharmacies [3] - The product matrix is diverse, with significant growth potential in core products, particularly in second-tier regions and grassroots medical institutions [3] - The company is embracing digitalization and AI to improve operational efficiency across various functions [3] Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in the domestic traditional Chinese medicine patch market, with a well-established brand and extensive product line [8] - The report highlights the company's ability to maintain a competitive edge through effective marketing integration and focus on core products [8]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益研究*周报 2025 年 07 月 08 日 固定收益研究 债市周观察（6.30-7.6）——"反内卷"和"供给侧改革 2.0"成 热门话题 上周，资金面跨季后回归充裕，DR007 中枢进一步下移至 1.42%附近，但 宽松流动性未能有效传导至债市利率，没有货币政策触发因素下，收益率 难以继续下台阶，债市延续窄幅波动。6 月初以来市场就开始博弈可能会 重启买卖国债，且对 7 月打开降息窗口也有一定猜测，临近季末，央行通 过延迟公布买卖国债数据和二季度货币政策例会通稿删除"择机降准降 息"表述的方式，释放信号瓦解了市场一致预期。7 月 2 日，央行公布 6 月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况，当月重启买卖国债预期完全落空。 另外，6 月 30 日，国家统计局公布了当月 PMI 数据，制造业 PMI 为 49.7%，前值为 49.5%，仍处于收缩区间，对债市影响不大。 7 月 1 日召开中央财经委员会第六次会议，会议中释放出"反内卷"的信 号，强调"要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业 提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出"。会议引发对"供给侧改革 2.0" 的政策导向预期 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on Capital Flows of Exchange-Traded Index Funds [1] - Data Date: June 30, 2025 - July 4, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Jin Ling [1] - Report Date: July 8, 2025 [1] Core Content Domestic Passive Stock Funds - **Composite and Industry Themes**: Different concepts have varying fund sizes, weekly price changes, and net weekly capital inflows. For example, the SSE 50 has a fund size of 159.456 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 1.41%, and a net weekly capital outflow of 2.765 billion yuan; the large technology concept has a fund size of 216.688 billion yuan, a weekly decrease of 0.32%, and a net weekly capital inflow of 6.066 billion yuan [4]. - **Style Strategies and Other Categories**: Similar to the above, different concepts show different performance. For instance, the dividend low - volatility concept has a fund size of 43.535 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 1.82%, and a net weekly capital inflow of 1.419 billion yuan [4]. Overseas - Related Funds - **Composite and Industry Themes**: Concepts like the Nasdaq 100 have a fund size of 78.421 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 1.04%, and a net weekly capital outflow of 0.032 billion yuan; the Hong Kong stock technology concept has a fund size of 92.609 billion yuan, a weekly decrease of 2.43%, and a net weekly capital inflow of 2.88 billion yuan [5]. - **Style Strategies**: The dividend concept has a fund size of 126.9 million yuan, a weekly increase of 0.99%, and a net weekly capital inflow of 0.0016 billion yuan; the dividend low - volatility concept has a fund size of 77.7 million yuan, a weekly increase of 1.26%, and a net weekly capital inflow of 0.00154 billion yuan [5]. Other Investment Types - **Bonds**: Different maturities and types of bonds have different performances. For example, 30 - year bonds have a fund size of 8.969 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 0.18%, and a net weekly capital inflow of 0.0257 billion yuan; convertible bonds have a fund size of 43.859 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 1.05%, and a net weekly capital outflow of 0.0098 billion yuan [6]. - **Commodities**: Gold has a fund size of 70.887 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 1.13%, and a net weekly capital inflow of 2.252 billion yuan; energy and chemical products have a fund size of 293 million yuan, a weekly decrease of 0.37%, and a net weekly capital outflow of 0.0093 billion yuan [6]. - **Index Enhancement**: Different index - related concepts also show different trends. For example, the SSE 50 index - enhanced concept has a fund size of 76 million yuan, a weekly increase of 2.55%, and no net weekly capital inflow or outflow [6].

Group 1: Economic Theory and Models - The Ricardian equivalence theory is increasingly evident in China, where rising government deficit rates reduce residents' marginal propensity to consume[1] - The RBC model is utilized to simulate the impact of fiscal spending on household consumption and consumption propensity[1] - Labor supply elasticity is identified as a key factor influencing changes in household consumption propensity, with values of -0.12 and 0.8 showing that higher elasticity leads to lower consumption propensity and fiscal multipliers[1] Group 2: Fiscal Spending and Consumption Relationship - Fiscal spending has a crowding-out effect on household consumption, with an average APC of 41% since the reform and a tax rate (τ) of 19.76%, indicating that a 1% increase in τ results in a 1.53% decrease in consumption[1] - In scenarios where private consumption propensity declines, increased fiscal spending is recommended to stabilize consumption levels[1] - The relationship between fiscal spending (τ) and APC indicates that if APC decreases, fiscal spending must increase to maintain consumption levels[1] Group 3: Implications of Government Debt - Concerns over high government debt can lead to reduced consumption as residents anticipate future tax increases to balance fiscal requirements[1] - The sustainability of fiscal policy is crucial; unsustainable debt levels can lead to reduced consumer spending and economic growth potential[1] - Investment growth can suppress overall consumption levels, highlighting the balance needed between investment and consumption[1] Group 4: Simulation Results - The RBC model simulations show that increased government purchases lead to higher output but also result in decreased household consumption due to increased taxation[1] - Higher labor supply elasticity results in a faster decline in household consumption propensity following fiscal shocks, indicating a smaller fiscal multiplier[1]