Report Overview - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: July 1, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The production side shows steady improvement, with an increase in rebar production and higher operating rates for asphalt, PX, and all-steel tires. The blast furnace and PTA operating rates remain flat, while the semi-steel tire operating rate declines. - The real estate market shows marginal improvement, with a slight rebound in commercial housing transaction area. - Price trends are divergent, with a sharp drop in crude oil prices, continuous increases in coking coal and non-ferrous metals prices, and stable agricultural product prices at a low level, potentially starting a seasonal upward trend in the short term. - Shipping indices continue to decline, with a significant drop in the BDI index. - Short-term focus should be on the implementation of new growth-stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][33] Summary by Directory 1. Production: Rebar Production Increases, Asphalt, PX, and All-Steel Tire Operating Rates Rise - **Steel**: The coking oven capacity utilization rate drops by 0.16 pct, the blast furnace operating rate remains flat, and rebar production increases by 5.66 tons. The inventory rises by 3.28 tons [9]. - **Petroleum Asphalt**: The operating rate increases by 1.1 pct [9]. - **Chemical Industry**: The PX operating rate increases by 0.46 pct, and the PTA operating rate remains flat [9]. - **Automobile Tires**: The all-steel tire operating rate increases by 0.16 pct, while the semi-steel tire operating rate decreases by 0.24 pct [10] 2. Demand: Commercial Housing Transactions Show Marginal Improvement, BDI Continues to Decline Significantly - **Real Estate**: The commercial housing transaction area rebounds, and the inventory-to-sales ratio increases. The land transaction area decreases, and the residential land transaction premium rate increases [14]. - **Movie Box Office**: It increases by 158 million yuan compared to the previous week [14]. - **Automobile**: The average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increase by 27,800 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increase by 17,100 vehicles [16]. - **Shipping Indices**: The SCFI drops by 0.43%, the CCFI rises by 2.0%, and the BDI drops significantly by 9.95% [19] 3. Prices: Crude Oil Drops Sharply, Non-Ferrous Metals and Coking Coal Rise, Agricultural Products Reach Seasonal Bottoms - **Energy**: The Brent crude oil price drops by 12% to $67.77 per barrel [21]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price increases by 4.64% to 834 yuan per ton [21]. - **Metals**: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices change by +2.26%, +1.31%, and +4.89% respectively, while the domestic rebar futures price drops by 0.13% [22]. - **Agricultural Products**: The overall price stabilizes, approaching the seasonal low, and may start an upward trend in the short term. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits change by -0.49%, +0.41%, 0%, and -2.94% respectively compared to the previous week [24][25] 4. Logistics: Subway Passenger Volume and Flight Execution Volume Increase, Peak Congestion Index in First-Tier Cities Drops - **Subway Passenger Volume**: It increases in Beijing and Shanghai [28]. - **Flight Execution Volume**: The domestic and international flight volumes both increase [30]. - **Urban Traffic**: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities drops [30] 5. Summary: Production Shows Steady Improvement, Price Trends are Divergent - The production side shows steady improvement, the real estate market shows marginal improvement, price trends are divergent, and shipping indices continue to decline. Short-term focus should be on new growth-stabilizing policies, real estate market recovery, and international geopolitical changes [33]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company's main business remains stable, with a recovery in gross margin and significant revenue growth in Q1 2025. The company reported a revenue of 1.939 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14.48%, but saw a substantial increase in Q1 2025 with a revenue of 586 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 231.96% [4][5]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is 7.51 yuan, with a total share capital of 1.901 billion shares and a market capitalization of 14.3 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 28.0% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 57.77 [3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 243 million yuan, down 36.41% year-on-year. However, the first quarter of 2025 showed a net profit of 92 million yuan, up 206.9% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 31.07%, an increase of 2.57 percentage points, indicating a recovery trend [5]. Project Pipeline - The company has a robust project pipeline for 2024, with plans to produce multiple TV series and films, which supports stable growth for 2025 [6]. - The company has also entered the short drama market, which has been growing rapidly since 2022, and plans to expand its international market presence [7]. Revenue Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3 billion yuan, 3.327 billion yuan, and 3.657 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 449 million yuan, 504 million yuan, and 565 million yuan [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% within the next six months [9][15]. Core Insights - The establishment of the Aerospace Special Power Joint Innovation Center enhances the company's defense equipment business layout, focusing on both domestic and international military trade markets [5]. - The company's industrial explosive production capacity has been increased to 697,500 tons, with a strategic acquisition of 51% stake in Peru's EXSUR, marking a significant step in international expansion [6]. - The company is recognized as a leading player in the domestic mining service sector, with a growing international presence and increasing automation in operations [7]. - Revenue forecasts for the company indicate a significant growth trajectory, with expected net profits of 1.17 billion, 1.38 billion, and 1.61 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 22, 19, and 16 times [9][11]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 33.94 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 25.8 billion yuan and a PE ratio of 28.73 [3]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 60.3%, indicating a moderate level of financial leverage [3]. - The largest shareholder is Guangdong Environmental Protection Group [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 21.52 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 57.65% compared to the previous year [11][14]. - The expected EBITDA for 2025 is 3.23 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase from 2.08 billion yuan in 2024 [11][14]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow by 30.61% in 2025, reaching 1.17 billion yuan [11][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit, with a 2024 revenue of 95.23 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.65%, and a net profit of 14.65 billion yuan, up 282.63% [4] - The company is expanding its production capacity for disposable nitrile gloves, with an annual capacity expected to reach 870 billion units by the end of 2024 [5] - The company plans to enhance its product offerings and production efficiency through increased automation and new product development [6][8] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 23.68 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 153 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 111 billion yuan [3] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 48.9% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.48 [3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 24.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.20%, and a net profit of 3.53 billion yuan, up 48.08% [4] - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 99.00 billion yuan, 122.63 billion yuan, and 143.68 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 3.96%, 23.87%, and 17.17% [8][10] Future Plans - The company aims to continue expanding its overseas production bases and enhance its R&D efforts to diversify its product range [6][8] - There is a focus on improving ESG governance and increasing communication with international capital [7]

证券研究报告：有色金属 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-07-01 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 19.50 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）265.78 | / 205.88 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）5,183 | / 4,015 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 19.78 / 14.15 | | 资产负债率(%) | 55.2% | | 市盈率 | 16.12 | | 第一大股东 | 闽西兴杭国有资产投资 | | 经营有限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 紫金矿业(601899) 拟收购哈国金矿，全球布局更进一步 l 公司拟收购哈萨克斯坦 RG 金矿 100%权益 紫金矿业全资子公司紫金黄金国际（拟分拆至香港联合交易所上 市的主体），拟以 12 亿美元对价，收购 Cantec ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - A military parade will be held on September 3, showcasing both traditional main battle forces and new domain capabilities, reflecting the modernization of the military [12][13] - The military industry is expected to see a turning point in orders in 2025, driven by new technologies and products aimed at enhancing equipment performance and reducing costs [20] - Investment recommendations focus on two main lines: aerospace and "gap-filling" new focuses, and new technologies, products, and markets with greater elasticity [20] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the military industry is 1596.82, with a 52-week high of 1712.48 and a low of 1113.62 [2] Market Performance - The military sector index increased by 6.23%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.91% [22] - The top ten performing stocks in the military sector this week include Changcheng Military Industry (+43.85%) and Zhongke Haixun (+34.89%) [24] Valuation Levels - As of June 27, 2025, the military sector's PE-TTM valuation is 110.98, with 81.19% of the time since January 1, 2014, the PE-TTM valuation has been lower than the current level [26][29] Investment Suggestions - Suggested stocks for the aerospace main line include Feilihua, Fenghuo Electronics, and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft [20] - New technology and market opportunities include companies like Aerospace Zhizao and Guangdong Hongda [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a first-time coverage [1] Core Insights - The company has shown stable growth in its two core businesses, with a revenue of 1.594 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.19%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 364 million yuan, up 16.11% year-on-year [4][5] - The company is diversifying its business into areas such as blood glucose management and cardiovascular health, indicating the emergence of second and third growth curves [5] - The company has made significant progress in its global industrial layout, with new production facilities in Daya Bay and Malaysia, enhancing its delivery capabilities for overseas business expansion [6] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 296 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.05%, but the net profit decreased by 10.62% to 52 million yuan [4] - The company forecasts revenue growth from 1.942 billion yuan in 2025 to 2.859 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 452 million yuan to 668 million yuan during the same period [7][9] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 22.2, 18.3, and 15.0 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [7][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The liquidity of medium - and long - term urban investment bonds continues to rise, and the number of high - grade liquid bonds of medium - and high - grade medium - and long - term industrial bonds increases [1][8][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - **Liquidity**: Medium - and long - term high - grade liquid urban investment bonds continue to increase. Regionally, high - grade liquid bonds in Jiangsu, Shandong, and Sichuan increase, while those in Tianjin and Chongqing remain stable. In terms of maturity, the liquidity of short - term and medium - long - term bonds rises; the number of high - grade liquid bonds within 1 year and 1 - 2 years increases, that of 2 - 3 years decreases, and that of 3 - 5 years and over 5 years continues to increase. In terms of implicit rating, the liquidity of medium - and high - grade bonds increases, while that of low - grade bonds remains stable [1][8]. - **Yield**: Regionally, the yields of high - grade liquid bonds in Jiangsu, Shandong, Sichuan, Tianjin, and Chongqing mainly rise, with an increase range of 1 - 3BP. In terms of maturity, the yields of high - grade liquid bonds at all maturities mainly rise, with an increase range of 1 - 2BP. In terms of implicit rating, the yields of bonds at all implicit levels mainly rise, with an increase range of 1 - 3BP; the yield of AA - bonds rises by about 5bp [11]. - **Top 20 Increase and Decrease in Liquidity Score**: The top 20 in terms of increase in liquidity score are mainly AA and AA + in terms of entity level, concentrated in regions such as Jiangsu, Shandong, and Guangdong, and mainly in industries such as architectural decoration, transportation, and real estate. The top 20 in terms of decrease are mainly AA in terms of entity level, distributed in regions such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, and Hubei, and mainly in industries such as architectural decoration and comprehensive [13]. 3.2 Industrial Bonds - **Liquidity**: The number of high - grade liquid bonds of medium - and long - term medium - and high - grade industrial bonds increases. By industry, the high - grade liquid bonds in industries such as real estate, public utilities, transportation, coal, and steel all increase, with public utilities increasing more. In terms of maturity, the high - grade liquid bonds within 1 year and 3 - 5 years increase overall, while those of 1 - 2 years, 2 - 3 years, and over 5 years basically remain stable. In terms of implicit rating, the number of high - grade liquid bonds with implicit ratings of AAA, AAA -, and AA + increases, while those with implicit ratings of AAA + and AA remain stable [2][18]. - **Yield**: By industry, the yields of real estate bonds mainly decline, with a decline range of about 2 - 4bp, concentrated at 1 - 3BP; the yields of public utilities and coal bonds mainly rise, with an increase range of 1 - 3bp; the yields of transportation, coal, and steel bonds fluctuate. In terms of maturity, the yields of 2 - 3 - year bonds mainly decline, with a decline range of 2 - 3bp; the yields of 3 - 5 - year bonds mainly rise, with an increase range of 1 - 3bp; the yields of other maturities fluctuate. In terms of implicit level, the yields of AAA bonds mainly rise, with an increase range of 2 - 3bp; the yields of A - grade liquid bonds with an implicit level of AA + basically remain stable, and the yields of B - grade bonds decline by about 3bp; the yields of bonds at other implicit levels fluctuate [20]. - **Top 20 Increase and Decrease in Liquidity Score**: In terms of the increase in liquidity score, the top 20 entities are mainly in industries such as public utilities, real estate, steel, and architectural decoration, with entity levels mainly AAA and AA +; the top 20 bonds are mainly in industries such as transportation, coal, and public utilities. In terms of the decrease, the top 20 entities are mainly in architectural decoration, real estate, and public utilities, with entity levels mainly AAA, and the top 20 bonds are mainly in industries such as transportation and architectural decoration [22].

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-07-01 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《海外宏观周报：关税扰动下，联储降 息仍需等待》 - 2025.06.24 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：降息预期升温，美股表现积极 ⚫ 核心观点： 本周五，美国将公布 6 月非农就业报告，鉴于近期多项相关数据 如申领失业金人数、经济评议会劳动力市场调查等均显示就业市场明 显有所走弱，这份非农报告或将体现就业市场继续放缓，这将压制未 来服务通胀，并为美联储进一步降息打开空间。从上周美联储理事鲍 曼鸽派发言后的市场表现来看，美股对降息预期升温的反应相当积 极，如果非农就业数据延续近期温和走弱的态势，短期内有望进一步 提振股市表现。 美国国债长端利率的调整可能已基本到位。目前，期限溢价处于 历史高位。其次，30 年期国债与 30 年期隔夜指数掉期（OIS）利差显 示，美国财政状况也已被投资者充分定价。上周末，"大而美 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-07-01 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 《6 月经济景气度延续平稳，关注价格 改善的前瞻性信号》 - 2025.06.20 宏观研究 偏乐观看待工业企业利润的后续走势 投资要点 通过 5 月工业企业利润来看，尽管 5 月我国出口增速保持较高韧 性，促消费政策效果持续显现，但在外部环境不确定性仍大的背景下， 短期市场微观主体采取谨慎策略，以订单驱动生产，短期生产、投资 和消费或趋于收缩，PPI 同比增速变化走弱，进而拖累工业企业利润。 因 PPI 增速持续走弱、工业企业利润增速转负，亦会对就业景气度产 生冲击，如领取失业金人数、居民就业预期和居民收入预期均呈现走 弱迹象，这会制约了消费内生修复动能的修复，这也解释了当前消费 主要是促消费政策拉动。与此同时，消费回暖并未传导至生产端，或 是生产结构调整的影响，未来生产性服务业或将成为新的增长驱动 力。 基于此，在 ...