Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the software and services industry [7]. Core Insights - The computer sector experienced a significant decline of 5.63% last week, ranking 27th among major industries in the Yangtze River region, with a trading volume accounting for 7.00% of the total market [2][4]. - Despite short-term fluctuations in Token data, the long-term growth trend of AI remains intact, with a strong outlook for domestic AI application monetization and commercial investment opportunities [6][57]. - Key events include the 2025 World Intelligent Connected Vehicle Conference, the successful launch of 12 low-orbit satellites for satellite internet, and the opening of the 2025 China International Digital Economy Expo [5][22][43]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer sector saw a substantial pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3839.76 points after a 1.47% decline [4][16]. - Notable activity was observed in domestic software stocks, with several companies showing significant gains [18]. Key Recommendations - Focus on AI infrastructure and cloud vendors, domestic model export companies, and firms that excel in vertical scenarios to achieve marginal returns [6][57]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the intelligent driving sector and satellite internet as areas for potential investment opportunities [31][42]. Events and Developments - The 2025 World Intelligent Connected Vehicle Conference highlighted the integration of AI in the automotive industry, with a push for standardization in autonomous driving technologies [22][25]. - The successful launch of low-orbit satellites marks a significant step in the development of satellite internet, with expectations for accelerated commercialization [32][37]. - The 2025 China International Digital Economy Expo showcased the potential of trusted data spaces in empowering various industries [43][49].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 4.568 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.02%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 232 million yuan, an increase of 30.32% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 233 million yuan, up 55.14% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.657 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.21% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.73%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 72 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 90.90%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 19.63% [2][6] - The demand for EVA (Ethylene Vinyl Acetate) is expected to maintain steady growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 11.2% over the next five years, reaching a demand of 5.35 million tons by 2029 [2][6] - The company is progressing with several new projects, including the "New Energy Materials and Biodegradable Materials Integration Project" and the "Lithium Battery Additive VC Project," which are on track for completion by the end of 2025 [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 4.568 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.02% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 232 million yuan, an increase of 30.32% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 233 million yuan, up 55.14% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.657 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.21% year-on-year and a significant increase of 20.73% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 72 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 90.90%, although it decreased by 19.63% compared to the previous quarter [2][6] Market Outlook - The EVA market is projected to grow significantly, with the domestic installed capacity expected to reach 277.6 GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.3%. The global installed capacity is expected to reach 599 GW in 2024, a growth of 34.9% [2][6] - The demand for UHMWPE (Ultra-High Molecular Weight Polyethylene) is also expected to grow, with a projected annual compound growth rate of 10.4% from 2023 to 2028 in China [2][6] Project Development - The company is advancing several key projects, including the "New Energy Materials and Biodegradable Materials Integration Project," which is over 80% complete and expected to be operational by the end of 2025. Other projects, such as the "Thermoplastic Polyethylene Elastomer (POE) Project," are also on schedule for completion [2][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 9.4 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 740 million yuan, up 81% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 560 million yuan, marking a 126% increase [3][4]. - In the third quarter, the company reported a revenue of 3.6 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 310 million yuan, up 54% year-on-year, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of approximately 270 million yuan, reflecting a 60% increase [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's main business, wall coatings, saw a revenue of approximately 5.4 billion yuan in the first three quarters, growing by 4% year-on-year. The revenue from home decoration wall coatings was 2.49 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year, while the average price decreased by 1% to 5.9 yuan/kg. The revenue from engineering wall coatings was 2.9 billion yuan, down 3% year-on-year, despite a 4% increase in sales volume [8]. - The revenue from auxiliary materials was about 2.85 billion yuan, an 11% increase, benefiting from the high growth of new business models. However, the revenue from waterproof membranes was approximately 720 million yuan, down 29% year-on-year, indicating a decline in competitive advantage in this segment [8]. Margin and Cost Management - The gross margin for the first three quarters was approximately 32.8%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, with the third quarter gross margin reaching 33.6%. This improvement is attributed to optimized channel and product structures, as well as a decrease in raw material prices [8]. - The company maintained a high net profit margin, with the net profit margin for the first half of the year at 7.9% and reaching 8.6% in the third quarter. If asset and credit impairment losses of 80 million yuan are excluded, the operating net profit margin would be approximately 10.6% [8]. Cash Flow and Receivables - The accounts receivable and notes at the end of the third quarter were approximately 3.45 billion yuan, significantly down from 4.29 billion yuan in the same period last year, reflecting improved channel structure and risk management [8]. - The cash collection ratio for the first three quarters was about 1.10, an improvement from 1.04 in the same period last year, while the cash payment ratio was about 1.07, up from 0.93 year-on-year. The net cash flow from operating activities reached approximately 1.09 billion yuan, the best historical level for the same period [8]. Future Outlook - The company is recommended as a leading player in the consumer building materials sector, with both revenue and operating net profit reaching new highs. The growth is driven by strategic initiatives that adapt to new market demands, such as the "Beautiful Countryside" and "Immediate Living & Artistic Paint" models. The increasing proportion of renovation in downstream activities is expected to accelerate the expansion of its coating brand model [8].

Key Points of the Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the liquidity and institutional behavior in the bond market from October 13 - 26, 2025. It shows that the overall liquidity is loose, and it is expected to remain so before the tax period and cross - month disturbances. The government bond net payment scale increases, the inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) maturity yield rises, and the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market and the duration of pure bond funds both increase marginally [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Funding Situation** - **Central Bank Operations**: From October 13 - 17, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 3479 billion yuan, and the treasury cash fixed - term deposit matured for 1500 billion yuan. On October 15, a 6000 - billion - yuan 6M outright reverse repurchase was carried out. In October, the outright reverse repurchase had a net injection of 4000 billion yuan, and the MLF is due for 7000 billion yuan this month [6]. - **Funding Rate**: Overnight and 7 - day funding rates are mostly lower. From October 13 - 17, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.31% and 1.36% respectively, and the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.43% and 1.47% respectively. It is expected that the funding situation will remain relatively loose before the tax period and cross - month disturbances [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From October 13 - 19, the government bond net payment scale was about 1402 billion yuan, an increase of about 1395 billion yuan compared with October 9 - 12. From October 20 - 26, it is expected to be 1583.7 billion yuan [8]. **Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit (NCD)** - **Maturity Yield**: As of October 17, 2025, the 1M, 3M, and 1Y NCD maturity yields increased by 4.1, 3.8, and 1.6 basis points respectively compared with October 11 [9]. - **Net Financing Amount**: From October 13 - 19, the NCD net financing amount was about 2247 billion yuan. From October 20 - 26, the NCD maturity repayment amount is expected to be 6179 billion yuan. The NCD maturity scale in the fourth quarter is about 8.1 trillion yuan, and the pressure for renewal upon maturity gradually increases [9]. **Institutional Behavior** - **Leverage Ratio of Inter - bank Bond Market**: From October 13 - 17, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.78%, slightly higher than that from October 9 - 11 [10]. - **Duration of Pure Bond Funds**: On October 17, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 5.31 years, up 0.59 years week - on - week, and the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 2.27 years, up 0.51 years week - on - week [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][12]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the third quarter reached 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 170 million yuan, a slight decline of 1.5% year-on-year, but a significant rebound from 20 million yuan in the second quarter [2][7]. - The "301 Act" and China's countermeasures are expected to create a supply contraction benefit for bulk shipping, favoring Chinese shipowners. The dry bulk sector's order backlog has not significantly expanded, providing a foundation for a cyclical upturn. The imminent production of the West Simandou project, a major iron ore trade route, is anticipated to boost demand for dry bulk shipping by extending transport distances [2][12]. - The dry bulk shipping market is showing signs of recovery, with the company expected to benefit from fleet expansion and the recovery of the dry bulk shipping market. Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 440 million, 1 billion, and 1.22 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 23.5, 10.4, and 8.5, respectively [2][12]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.21 billion yuan, up 34.3% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 170 million yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year, but up from 20 million yuan in Q2 [7][12]. - The operating costs were 980 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.7%, likely due to increased repair costs. The gross profit was 230 million yuan, with a gross margin of 18.7%, down 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [12]. Market Outlook - The implementation of the "301 Act" and the production of the West Simandou project are expected to positively impact the bulk shipping market. The supply contraction from the high costs associated with "U.S.-related" vessels is likely to benefit Chinese shipowners [12]. - The dry bulk shipping sector is anticipated to see a recovery, with the company expected to leverage its expanding fleet and the improving market conditions to enhance profitability [12]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 440 million yuan, 1 billion yuan, and 1.22 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23.5, 10.4, and 8.5 [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the issuance of local government bonds, including the actual and forecasted issuance amounts, the progress of special refinancing bonds and special new special - purpose bonds, and the comparison between planned and actual issuance. It also presents data on local government bond net supply, investment, and trading, as well as the investment directions of new special - purpose bonds [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From October 20th to October 26th, the planned issuance of local bonds is 2472.28 billion yuan, including 1136.52 billion yuan of new bonds (12.91 billion yuan of new general bonds and 1123.61 billion yuan of new special - purpose bonds) and 1335.76 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (651.36 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 684.40 billion yuan of refinancing special - purpose bonds). From October 13th to October 19th, the actual issuance of local bonds is 323.01 billion yuan, including 200.91 billion yuan of new bonds (0.00 billion yuan of new general bonds and 200.91 billion yuan of new special - purpose bonds) and 122.10 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (24.96 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 97.14 billion yuan of refinancing special - purpose bonds) [1][5][6]. - **Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance**: Comparisons are made between the planned and actual issuance of local bonds in September and October 2025, and for different regions and bond types [15][20][21]. 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of October 19th, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 83.53%, and that of new special - purpose bonds is 84.55% [26]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The report shows the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of October 19th [27]. 3.3 Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of October 19th, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds total 20235.13 billion yuan, with an additional 214.00 billion yuan to be added next week. The top three regions in terms of disclosure scale are Jiangsu (2511.00 billion yuan), Guizhou (1324.32 billion yuan), and Hunan (1290.00 billion yuan) [7]. - **Special New Special - Purpose Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of October 19th, 2025 special new special - purpose bonds total 12029.16 billion yuan, and since 2023, a total of 23907.80 billion yuan has been disclosed. The top three regions in terms of disclosure scale are Jiangsu (2340.35 billion yuan), Xinjiang (1311.70 billion yuan), and Hubei (1287.69 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three regions are Jiangsu (1189.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (1027.48 billion yuan), and Yunnan (729.97 billion yuan) [7]. 3.4 Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The report presents the primary and secondary spreads of local bonds, as well as the regional secondary spreads [40][41]. 3.5 New Special - Purpose Bond Investment Directions - **Monthly Project Investment Statistics**: The investment directions of new special - purpose bonds are presented, with the latest month's statistics considering only issued new bonds [42].

丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 市场策略丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 1020 港股日评：中美释放贸易缓和信号，港股 修复 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 10 月 20 日，港股市场大市成交额达到 2391.6 亿港元，南向资金净卖出 26.70 亿港 元。港股主要指数普遍上涨，从宏观来看主要是因为：10 月 18 日上午，中美经贸中方牵头人、 国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔举行视频通话，双 方就双边经贸关系中的重要问题进行了坦诚、深入、建设性的交流，同意尽快举行新一轮中美 经贸磋商。市场预期中美经贸关系将缓和，这有效缓解了市场对贸易摩擦升级的担忧叠加市场 押注美联储 10 月议息会议将降息 25bp，外部流动性宽松预期增强，带动港股市场上涨。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 [Table_Title 1020 港股日评：中美释放贸易缓和信号，港股 2] 修复 [Table_Su ...

Economic Growth Outlook - The actual GDP growth in Q3 was 4.8% year-on-year, with a probability of achieving the 5% annual growth target still intact[2] - To meet the 5% target, Q4 GDP needs to reach a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth of approximately 1.11%[10] - The industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment decreased by 6.8%[7] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Production has outperformed demand, with exports, consumption, and investment showing varying degrees of decline[2] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q3 was 3.7%, with the GDP deflator index improving slightly to -1.02%[10] - The industrial capacity utilization rate rose to 74.6%, indicating a more balanced production and sales environment[10] Short-term Challenges - October's growth faces challenges due to high base effects from the previous year, with significant declines in both investment and consumption expected[10] - Fixed asset investment has turned negative at -0.5% year-to-date, marking the weakest performance since August 2020[10] - Retail sales growth in September dropped to 3%, with declines in durable goods sales and restaurant revenues[10] Policy Recommendations - There is a necessity for counter-cyclical policies to stabilize the economy, especially if demand continues to decline[10] - The government has preemptively allocated 500 billion yuan for local bond issuance, reflecting a commitment to macroeconomic support[2] - Monitoring the marginal changes in monetary and demand-side policies will be crucial as demand trends evolve[2]

Overview - The non-woven fabric industry in China is experiencing a recovery, with production expected to reach 8.56 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, marking the largest growth since 2020 [9][25] - The industry is seeing a shift towards high-end and sustainable materials, with the penetration rates of viscose, cotton, and blended materials increasing significantly [30][32] - The industry’s prosperity index has improved from 57.3 at the end of 2022 to 68.4 in the first eleven months of 2024, indicating a positive trend in revenue and profit growth for major companies [9][34] Product Segmentation - The main production processes for non-woven fabrics in 2024 are spunbond (45.3%), needle-punched (21.6%), and spunlace (19.4%), which together account for 86% of the market [26][28] - Spunlace non-woven fabrics are expected to grow by 8.1% year-on-year in 2024, primarily used for wet wipes and toilet paper, while thermal bonded non-woven fabrics are projected to grow by 7.9% [9][28] Market Dynamics - The domestic market is the core consumption area, with a projected increase in domestic sales of non-woven fabrics by 3% in 2024, surpassing 7.14 million tons [52] - Exports are expected to outperform domestic sales, driven by the recovery of the disposable cleaning products market and increasing demand from Southeast Asia [52] Competitive Landscape - The industry is characterized by low concentration, with over 85% of companies being small to medium-sized enterprises, while major players like Nobon, Yanjing, and Jinchun hold less than 1% market share each [10][41] - The competition is intensifying, particularly in the high-end product segments, as consumer demand shifts towards higher quality and sustainable options [41][44] Policy and Brand Strategies - Recent policies in the UK and EU are pushing for a transition to plastic-free products, which may benefit companies capable of producing compliant materials [12] - Major brands are adopting procurement strategies that favor suppliers with strong capabilities in non-plastic materials, enhancing China's competitive edge in the Asia-Pacific and emerging markets [12][51]

联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 如何看 2025 年 9 月消费数据？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 9 月份，社会消费品零售总额 41971 亿元，同比增长 3.0%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售 额 37260 亿元，增长 3.2%。1—9 月份，社会消费品零售总额 365877 亿元，增长 4.5%。其 中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额 329954 亿元，增长 4.9%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 李锦 赵刚 高伊楠 SAC：S0490514080004 SAC：S0490517020001 SAC：S0490517060001 SFC：BUV258 SFC：BUX176 SFC：BUW101 于旭辉 蔡方羿 董思远 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490516060001 SAC：S0490517070016 SFC：BUU942 SFC：BUV463 SFC：BQK487 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说 ...