丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 2025 年特殊新增专项债披露逾 9000 亿 ——政府债周报（9/7） 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 9 月 8 日-9 月 14 日地方债披露发行 3016.72 亿元。其中新增债 1466.01 亿元（新增一般债 147.32 亿元，新增专项债 1318.68 亿元），再融资债 1550.72 亿元（再融资一般债 870.45 亿 元，再融资专项债 680.26 亿元）。 9 月 1 日-9 月 7 日地方债共发行 933.91 亿元。其中新增债 178.37 亿元（新增一般债 0.00 亿 元，新增专项债 178.37 亿元），再融资债 755.54 亿元（再融资一般债 190.66 亿元，再融资 专项债 564.88 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 赵增辉 赖逸儒 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Titl ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 8.241 billion, 1.018 billion, and 0.943 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -4%, +3%, and +21% [2][6] - For Q2 2025, the figures were 4.794 billion, 0.710 billion, and 0.677 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -3%, -8%, and +7% respectively, indicating operational resilience despite a slight revenue decline [2][6] - The company demonstrated improved operating profit margins in Q2, showcasing ongoing supply chain optimization and efficiency enhancements [2][12] - The company is advancing channel structure optimization and the transformation towards a comprehensive home furnishing model, which strengthens operational resilience and competitiveness [2][12] - The company has a robust dividend plan and a competitive home furnishing system, currently possessing a strong safety margin [2][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 8.241 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3% to 1.018 billion yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items rose by 21% to 0.943 billion yuan [2][6] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 4.794 billion yuan, down 3% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 0.710 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year [2][6] Operational Insights - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue in Q2, which reflects its operational resilience [12] - The gross profit margin improved by 3.2 percentage points in Q2, with various product lines and channels showing positive trends [12] - The company reduced its number of stores by 104 in H1 2025, while actively encouraging distributors to transition to a comprehensive home furnishing model [12] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvements to empower its channels and sustain its comprehensive home furnishing strategy [12] - The company aims to enhance its operational capabilities through product development, quality improvements, and delivery reforms [12] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend of no less than 1.5 billion yuan annually from 2024 to 2026, indicating strong cash flow and a current dividend yield of approximately 4.4% [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 is 1.76 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 34%, while net profit attributable to the parent company is 148 million, showing a decline of 23% [2][6] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 849 million, a 26% increase year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 47% [2][6] - The company anticipates recovery in H2 2025, with orders from major clients like Da Wang and Procter & Gamble expected to contribute to growth [2][6] - The company is optimizing its product structure and focusing on cost control while enhancing its market share in the domestic market [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2025 revenue is 1.76 billion, with a 34% increase year-on-year; net profit attributable to the parent company is 148 million, down 23% [2][6] - Q2 2025 revenue is 849 million, a 26% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 47% [2][6] - The company’s internal profit margin for H1 is approximately 10.3%, reflecting a decline due to price reductions and increased sales expenses [2][6] Business Development - The company plans to establish overseas production capacities in Peru and Tanzania, targeting emerging markets in Latin America and Africa [2][6] - The company is focusing on enhancing its market share in the domestic baby diaper market, with an estimated market share of 9.3% in 2024, up from 4.2% in 2019 [2][6] Product and Brand Strategy - The company is launching new products under the Jie Ting brand and optimizing channel operations to enhance brand performance [2][6] - The company is leveraging its strong product capabilities to maintain and expand partnerships with leading brands [2][6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Viewpoints - On September 5, Anthropic announced a sales restriction policy, halting AI service provision to groups with over 50% Chinese capital ownership, which may accelerate the domestic development of large models in China [2][4] - The ban from Anthropic is part of a broader trend where overseas large model providers restrict access to Chinese enterprises, potentially pushing these companies towards domestic alternatives [9] - The performance of domestic large models is improving, with examples like Alibaba's Qwen-3-Max-Preview achieving world-leading capabilities in key areas such as knowledge reasoning and programming [9] Summary by Sections Event Description - Anthropic's announcement on September 5 restricts AI services to companies controlled by Chinese entities, impacting both domestic and overseas subsidiaries [4] Event Commentary - The ban may lead to increased reliance on domestic large models as Chinese enterprises seek alternatives to Anthropic's technology, which has been widely used for secondary development [9] - The ongoing improvement in domestic large model performance positions them as viable alternatives to foreign models, with significant advancements noted in Alibaba's offerings [9] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on the domestic large model supply chain, companies with data advantages in specific verticals, and the domestic computing power supply chain as potential investment opportunities [9]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 首届深空经济与产业发展大会召开，关注产业由 0 到 1 投资机遇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 9 月 4 日，由深空探测实验室主办的首届深空经济与产业发展大会在安徽合肥召开，本届大会 以"聚焦深空经济，引领产业未来"为主题，首次提出深空经济概念，并系统梳理发布我国深 空经济十大产业方向。当前时点，我国正持续深化培养新质生产力，深空经济作为驱动航天产 业升级、培育创新动能、重塑空间格局的重要力量，有望成为未来重要新兴产业，关注产业由 0 到 1 而来的产业投资机遇。建议关注：建议关注产业链各环节的核心供应商，重点关注卫星 应用相关标的。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525070002 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 首届深空经济与产业发展大会召开，关注产业 2] 由 0 到 1 投资机遇 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10]. Core Viewpoints - Baijiu Co., Ltd. is the leading player in China's pre-mixed beverage market, with stable growth expected in its pre-mixed beverage business as the market continues to expand. Additionally, as a leading domestic whisky brand, the company is well-prepared in terms of product matrix, channel design, and capacity reserves, which positions it to benefit from the increasing penetration of whisky in the Chinese market [3][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Baijiu Co., Ltd. operates two main businesses: pre-mixed beverages and flavoring agents. In 2024, the pre-mixed beverage segment is projected to generate revenue of 2.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%, accounting for 87.8% of total revenue. The flavoring agent business is expected to achieve revenue of 340 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, making up 11.0% of total revenue [5][19]. Pre-mixed Beverage Business - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix and a multi-channel distribution strategy, including both online direct sales and offline fast-moving consumer goods channels. The product offerings include various series of pre-mixed cocktails, catering to different consumer preferences and occasions. The "RIO" brand has maintained the highest market share in the industry for several years [6][64]. Whisky Business - The whisky segment is positioned for rapid growth, with the company having completed the 500,000th barrel filling, making it the largest whisky distillery in China. The company has launched several new whisky products and is focusing on brand promotion and consumer experience centers to enhance its market presence [7][20][82]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to see earnings per share (EPS) of 0.70 yuan in 2025 and 0.86 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 37 and 30 times, respectively. The report anticipates stable growth in the pre-mixed beverage market and significant contributions from the whisky segment as market penetration increases [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiamen Xiangyu [5] Core Views - In the first half of 2025, Xiamen Xiangyu achieved a revenue of 203.95 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.03 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32.5% [3][9] - The company has seen a clear performance inflection point, focusing on the "Three New and One High" strategy, which aims to enhance operational capabilities and asset value through industrial investment [9] - The company successfully introduced strategic investors and implemented stock repurchase and incentive plans, reflecting confidence in future development [9] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Growth - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 106.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, and a net profit of 520 million, a year-on-year increase of 40.8% [3][9] - The bulk commodity trading segment maintained rapid growth in operating volume, achieving over 120 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.0% [9] Bulk Commodity Logistics - The bulk commodity logistics segment saw a revenue increase of 17.4% and a gross profit increase of 20.5% in the first half of 2025 [9] - The company strengthened external customer acquisition and cost reduction, leading to impressive revenue and profit growth [9] Shipbuilding Orders and Capacity Expansion - The shipbuilding segment experienced a revenue decline of 6.7% in the first half of 2025 due to some orders being transferred to the new shipyard in Qidong [9] - The company signed 15 new shipbuilding orders in the first half of 2025, with a backlog of 91 orders, indicating potential for improved profitability as the new facility becomes operational [9] Financial Optimization - Financial expenses decreased significantly by 41.8% year-on-year, contributing to a 15.4% reduction in period expenses [9] - The net profit margin improved by 0.1 percentage points to 0.5% in the first half of 2025 [9] Future Outlook - The company projects net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.9 billion, 2.26 billion, and 2.61 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.8, 9.0, and 7.8 [9]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨媒体Ⅱ [Table_Title] 游戏产业跟踪（14）：暑期档以来游戏行业保持 高热度，看好行业景气度延续 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 上市游戏公司新游产品周期前期已陆续开启，暑期以来巨人网络《超自然行动组》、吉比特《杖 剑传说》等多款新游表现持续强势，9 月以来流水亦保持稳健，长线能力突出。展望后续，新 游强长线表现及丰富产品储备或带动游戏板块基本面持续向好。8 月国产游戏版号发放数再创 纪录亦反映政策环境及未来产品丰富供给的持续性。新游周期、政策趋势及 AI 催化共同作用 下，游戏板块景气度及估值仍具有向上空间，建议继续关注游戏板块相关投资机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高超 杨云祺 SAC：S0490516080001 SAC：S0490524090002 SFC：BUX177 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 游戏产业跟踪（2] 14）：暑期档以来游戏行业保持 高热度，看好行业景气度延续 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 暑期以来 ...

公司研究丨点评报告丨金禾实业（002597.SZ） 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title] Q2 短期业绩承压，三氯蔗糖价格坚挺 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年半年报，实现收入 24.4 亿元（同比-3.7%），实现归属净利润 3.3 亿元（同比 +35.3%），实现归属扣非净利润 3.4 亿元（同比+35.5%）。其中 Q2 单季度实现收入 11.4 亿元 （同比-13.8%，环比-12.2%），归属净利润 0.9 亿元（同比-21.7%，环比-61.9%），实现归属扣 非净利润 1.1 亿元（同比-13.9%，环比-51.2%）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490525040004 SFC：BUT911 1 金禾实业（002597.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] Q2 短期业绩承压，三氯蔗糖价格坚挺 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 马太 王呈 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 公司发布 2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Views - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, achieving 4.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, but net profit decreased significantly by 37.6% to 670 million yuan [6][12]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 2.06 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 45.8% to 310 million yuan [6][12]. - The Moroccan project is expected to ramp up production in the second half of 2025, with the first phase already operational since September 30, 2024, aiming for an annual output of 12 million high-performance passenger car tires [12][12]. - The company is expanding its international production capacity, with significant developments in its Thailand factory and the Moroccan project, which are crucial for enhancing brand strength and optimizing sales layout [12][12]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.67 billion yuan, 2.24 billion yuan, and 2.66 billion yuan, respectively [12][12]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 15.57 million tires, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year, with a notable drop in semi-steel tire production [12]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 24.6%, down 8.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to rising raw material prices and increased overseas trade tariffs [12][12]. - The company’s sales volume in Q2 2025 increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with semi-steel tire sales rising by 0.6% and full-steel tire sales increasing by 34.0% [12][12].