Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The bond market yield is expected to challenge the previous low, but it is difficult to break through. It is recommended to stop profit when approaching the key point. Specifically, it is suggested to allocate 10-year treasury bonds around 1.65% when there is an adjustment, and stop profit appropriately when approaching the key point of 1.6%. From a static perspective, attention can be paid to the allocation value of the 20-year treasury bond yield [2][6][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Yield Expected to Challenge the Previous Low - After a long period of credit expansion, the growth rate of social financing may be gradually peaking. It is expected that the growth rate of social financing will reach the annual high of about 9.0% from July to August, and then gradually decline to about 8.3% by the end of the year. The issuance of special refinancing bonds has a significant substitution effect on new RMB loans, and there is still about 40 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds to be issued this year, and its substitution effect on credit is expected to continue for some time [6][12]. - In June this year, the central bank's support brought abundant liquidity and a decline in the short end of the bond market, which made the long-term bonds not adjust deeply, and the bond market often rushes ahead in June. Under the loose capital situation, institutions generally continue the "rushing ahead" strategy of previous years, and the inter-bank leverage ratio has been rising, reaching 108.2% as of June 17. Historical experience shows that the bond market rush - ahead market is often triggered after the cross - quarter capital pressure is released [6][18]. The Previous Low Can Be Challenged but Difficult to Break Through, and It is Recommended to Stop Profit When Approaching the Key Point - The bond market is insensitive to small changes in the fundamentals. Firstly, in the context of high - quality development, the improvement of total factor productivity has increased its contribution to economic growth, reducing the demand for financing in economic growth. Since 2020, the multiple of nominal economy supported by unit social financing has increased from about 3 times to about 4.2 times in 2024. Secondly, considering the bond market valuation, at the current relatively low absolute level, a greater valuation increase is required for the interest rate to decline, making the bond market less sensitive to general weakening of the fundamentals [6][19]. - The restart of treasury bond trading is possible, but the time is not clear, and the probability of restarting when the bond market approaches the previous low may not be high. If the central bank restarts treasury bond trading, referring to the market from December 20 to December 25 last year, the yield of 1 - year treasury bonds can break through 1% at the lowest, which may directly drive the yield of long - term bonds to break below 1.6%, deviating from the current relatively desirable bond market yield level [6][24].

怎么量化利差损风险？如何给保险估值？ ——保险基本面梳理107 长江证券研究所非银研究小组 2025-06-19 %% %% %% %% 分析师 吴一凡 分析师 谢宇尘 SAC执业证书编号：S0490519080007 SAC执业证书编号：S0490521020001 SFC执业证书编号：BUV596 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 •证券研究报告• 评级 看好 维持 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 如何判断利差损风险？ 02 如何给估值？ 目录 %% research.95579.com 3 research.95579.com 1 01 如何判断利差损风险？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 01 上市头部负债成本正在改善 2024年负债成本在上升吗？ ➢ 上市险企可以使用价值敏感性数据测算打平收益率，代表负债成本。 ➢ 2024年，国寿、太保、新华新单负债成本分别同比改善53bp、52bp和94bp。 ➢ 结论：上市险企新单负债成本正在改善。 测算新单负债成本 测算存量负债成本 2017H 2017 2018H 2018 2019H ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the semiconductor and semiconductor production equipment industry [11]. Core Insights - Since early 2025, the semiconductor sector has entered an adjustment period following a surge driven by AI, facing multiple challenges such as geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties, which have hindered demand growth [4][7]. - Despite these challenges, the report suggests that the valuation pressure on semiconductor equipment and materials is limited, with expectations for improved performance and order fulfillment as domestic wafer manufacturing capabilities enhance [4][7]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The semiconductor sector has transitioned from a valuation-driven logic to one focused on performance, with dynamic P/E ratios reflecting a normalization to mid-2024 levels [4][21]. - The semiconductor equipment and materials sectors are currently undervalued compared to the broader semiconductor sector, with dynamic P/E ratios at 12.5% and 63.2% percentile points respectively [4][21]. Industry Growth Drivers - Global semiconductor sales are projected to grow by 11.2% in 2025, with semiconductor equipment and materials expected to see sales growth rates of 7.7% and 8% respectively [8][29]. - The domestic demand for semiconductor equipment remains strong, driven by local foundries' expansion and the potential for domestic companies to capture market share from foreign competitors [8][47]. Company-Specific Insights - In the equipment sector, companies like North Huachuang are noted for their stable growth and market leadership, while firms in niche segments like Zhongke Feicai and Xinyuanwei are highlighted for their potential breakthroughs [9]. - In the materials sector, companies such as Anji Technology and Xingfu Electronics are recognized for successfully replacing domestic products and expanding into overseas markets [9]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the domestic semiconductor industry will continue to grow, with significant opportunities for local companies to replace foreign products and expand their market presence [8][47]. - The ongoing development of new production lines and technologies by leading domestic firms is expected to further enhance their competitive positioning in the global market [66].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The successful completion of China's first invasive brain-computer interface (BCI) clinical trial marks the country as the second globally to enter this stage, following the United States [2][5] - The stock price of Regenative Medicine (RGC) surged by 283.12% to $60 on June 16, indicating strong market interest in BCI technology [2][5] - The BCI medical application market is projected to reach between $40 billion and $145 billion globally by 2030 to 2040, with China's market expected to grow from 3.2 billion yuan in 2024 to over 5.5 billion yuan by 2027 [5] Summary by Sections Event Description - The first invasive BCI clinical trial in China was conducted by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Fudan University, demonstrating significant advancements in BCI technology [5] - The trial involved a male subject who regained control over a computer touchpad after 2-3 weeks of training, showcasing the potential of BCI technology for improving the quality of life for patients with spinal cord injuries and amputations [5] Market Dynamics - The rapid progress in overseas BCI technology has garnered significant market attention, with companies like Neuralink and Regenative Medicine leading advancements [5] - The BCI market is expected to expand rapidly, driven by technological breakthroughs in medical rehabilitation [5] Investment Opportunities - Three main investment lines are suggested: 1. Domestic mapping of advanced overseas invasive BCI industry chains 2. Non-invasive BCI products in consumer scenarios 3. Downstream application targets related to BCI technology [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - During the week from June 9 to June 14, 2025, the A - share market continued to fluctuate, with major stock indices generally pulling back. The convertible bond market showed differentiation, with the average daily trading volume rising to 69.61 billion yuan. The market style gradually shifted from theme preference to defensive low - valuation. It is recommended to balance the layout of low - valuation pro - cyclical directions and high - rating large - cap convertible bonds and pay attention to phased opportunities in structural rotation [2][6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Theme Weekly Review Equity Theme Weekly Review - The A - share market continued the theme rotation. Resource and pharmaceutical sectors were active. The rare earth permanent magnet index led the rise with a 12.5% increase. The pharmaceutical sector also performed well. However, the technology track was under pressure, with many technology - related indices falling by more than 2%. The short - term capital style switched from technology themes to resource and pharmaceutical sectors [14]. Convertible Bond Weekly Review - The convertible bond market was slightly under pressure, with trading activity continuing to pick up. The ChinaBond Convertible Bond Index fell slightly by 0.02%. Large - cap convertible bonds were more stable. The valuation of low - price convertible bonds was repaired, while that of high - price areas was under pressure. In the primary market, 6 listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans, and clause games were active. It is recommended to focus on medium - and low - price individual bonds with underlying stock catalysts and valuation repair space, and also consider high - rating large - cap convertible bonds [17][18]. Weekly Market Tracking Capital Shifts to Pro - cyclical, Structural Market Continues and Trading Heat Differs - Major A - share stock indices pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index fell by 0.7%, 1.2%, and 0.8% respectively. The market turnover increased, but the main funds had a net outflow of 1.77 billion yuan per day on average. Pro - cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals and petroleum and petrochemicals led the rise, while TMT and consumer sectors pulled back. It is recommended to pay attention to the rotation and repair opportunities of low - valuation sectors and beware of the valuation pull - back risk of high - level sectors [10]. Convertible Bond Market Narrowly Pulls Back, Defensive Sectors Strengthen - The convertible bond market was in shock consolidation. The average daily trading volume rose to 69.61 billion yuan. Capital preferred large - cap high - rating targets. In terms of valuation, low - price convertible bonds were repaired, and high - price areas were under pressure. In the industry, defensive sectors such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and non - ferrous metals performed strongly. It is recommended to focus on medium - and low - price individual bonds supported by fundamentals [10]. Primary Market Tracking and Clause Games - In the primary market of convertible bonds, there was no new bond listing, only Luwei Convertible Bond entered the application stage. Six listed companies updated their convertible bond plans. In terms of clause games, 12 convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revisions, 7 announced no downward revisions, and 1 proposed a downward revision. In terms of redemptions, 3 announced expected trigger of strong redemptions, 2 announced early redemptions, and 3 clearly stated no redemptions [10]. Weekly Market Outlook - The A - share market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Pro - cyclical directions may have relatively advantageous opportunities, and TMT and consumer sectors may attract low - buying funds after the pull - back. For convertible bonds, the activity is stable at a high level, and the market preference shifts to large - cap high - rating targets and theme - game resonance varieties. It is recommended to balance the layout of medium - and high - price convertible bonds with reasonable valuations and medium - and low - price individual bonds with safety margins and elasticity repair space [19]. Convertible Bond Allocation Suggestions - Prioritize the layout of large - cap high - rating convertible bonds with high valuation safety margins and stable coupon structures. Moderately participate in the game opportunities of medium - and low - price, high - elasticity individual bonds, especially those in the consumer and pro - cyclical directions. Control positions, select varieties with short remaining terms and high trading activity to improve liquidity [8].

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title] 继续观望，直至前景明朗 ——2025 年 6 月美联储议息会议点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 6 月，美联储议息会议上，美联储如期维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变，会议声明的关 键调整在于强调不确定性减弱但仍偏高。经济预测方面，美联储下调近两年 GDP 增速预期、 上调近三年通胀和失业率预期。降息路径方面，本次会议公布的点阵图结论上仍维持年内累计 降息 50BP 预期，但分布有所上移且趋于分散。总之，关税政策及其经济影响的不确定性导致 美联储倾向保持观望。向前看，经济数据的表现仍是决定未来货币政策的重中之重，未来降息 与否的关键在于：滞与胀谁先到来。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 继续观望，直至前景明朗 2] ——2025 年 6 月美联储议息会议点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 北京 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The internationalization of the RMB is accelerating, supported by a resilient Chinese economy and financial opening policies[9] - The global asset pricing power is undergoing systemic changes, enhancing the risk-hedging attributes of RMB assets, which will attract more international capital[9] - The continuous influx of patient capital will stabilize the capital market and enhance long-term returns for investors[2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The growth of patient capital, including social security funds and insurance capital, will shift market focus from short-term to long-term investments[9] - The listing and development of high-quality tech enterprises will further improve asset quality and strengthen market investment value[9] - The implementation of policies to support the internationalization of the RMB, such as cross-border payment infrastructure and digital RMB innovations, is ongoing[9] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Uncertainties in U.S. economic policies may impact the global economic landscape and the status of the dollar[10] - Geopolitical instability poses risks to global supply chains, potentially affecting the pace of RMB internationalization[10]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨房地产 [Table_Title] 量价下行压力加大，宽松的必要性逐步提高 ——2025 年 1-5 月统计局房地产数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025Q1 销售表现尚可，但 Q2 以来量价下行压力加大，尤其是核心城市价格也边际趋弱，产 业政策宽松的必要性逐步提升。周期位置角度，行业量价快速下行阶段可能已经过去，但结构 性矛盾仍需消化，预期改善也需时间，常规政策的宽松空间和边际效果相对有限，真正值得期 待的在于超常规层面，只是节奏和力度需要进一步探讨，从宏观表现来看可能没有那么急迫。 当前开发公司股价较底部溢价并不大，可择优配置等待交易窗口，重视具备区域和产品优势的 龙头房企；而具备稳定现金流和潜在高股息的商业、经纪和物管龙头，则是战略性机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 宋子逸 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490522080002 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 量价下行压力2]加大，宽松的 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that from June 3 to June 5, 2025, southbound funds saw a net inflow of HKD 65.77 billion, primarily flowing into the pharmaceutical and biotechnology, consumer discretionary retail, automotive and parts, banking, and oil and petrochemical sectors [1][3][29] - The top five sectors for southbound fund inflows during this period were pharmaceutical and biotechnology (HKD 21.27 billion), consumer discretionary retail (HKD 18.87 billion), automotive and parts (HKD 14.75 billion), banking (HKD 14.72 billion), and oil and petrochemical (HKD 6.68 billion) [3][29] - Conversely, the sectors experiencing the largest outflows included hardware equipment (HKD -11.08 billion), software services (HKD -5.43 billion), and durable consumer goods (HKD -4.15 billion) [3][29] Group 2 - During the same period, foreign institutional funds experienced a net outflow of HKD 67.90 billion, with significant inflows into hardware equipment (HKD 17.43 billion), media (HKD 10.08 billion), and software services (HKD 6.52 billion) [4][34] - The sectors with the highest net outflows for foreign institutional funds were consumer discretionary retail (HKD -40.57 billion), automotive and parts (HKD -21.19 billion), and pharmaceutical and biotechnology (HKD -19.72 billion) [4][34] - The report notes that the performance of the Hong Kong stock market was influenced by financial innovations, such as the enactment of the Stablecoin Regulation in Hong Kong and positive signals from US-China diplomatic communications [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the chemical industry [8] Core Insights - The light initiator industry is experiencing frequent supply disruptions, with significant events such as a fire at Jiangxi Yangfan's subsidiary leading to production halts, and Ningxia Wokailong facing operational difficulties. Despite these challenges, the industry's high concentration and growing demand suggest a potential recovery in market conditions, making it a point of interest for investment opportunities [2][7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The light initiator industry is crucial for light-curing materials, which include UV coatings, inks, adhesives, and composites. The market has seen stable growth, with the output value increasing from 3.11 billion in 2018 to 4.59 billion in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 8.1% [10] Supply Disruptions - Recent supply disruptions include a fire incident at Jiangxi Yangfan and operational challenges faced by Ningxia Wokailong, which has been listed as a dishonest executor due to unfulfilled obligations. These events are expected to improve the supply-demand balance in the industry [7][10] Market Dynamics - Historical price elasticity in the light initiator market indicates significant upward potential, especially as the current market conditions are at a low point. The report notes that in 2017, prices surged due to high demand and limited supply, with notable increases in various product prices [10] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on key players like Jiu Ri New Materials, which holds a leading position in the market with a projected production of 19,851 tons in 2024, capturing approximately 34% of the domestic market share. The company is expected to increase its sales by 20.2% year-on-year, indicating a strong competitive advantage [10]