联合研究丨专题报告 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title] IP 衍生品产业研究（十）：复盘 Labubu 发展历 程，如何看待爆品 IP 的"运"与"势"？ 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 复盘 Labubu 发展历程，爆品 IP 的"运"与"势"相辅相成。"势"为根基：创作者龙家升的 跨文化艺术底蕴注入独特性，"丑萌"反叛形象精准契合时代审美潮流，产品形态创新（搪胶毛 绒挂件）打破场景边界，构成 IP 长线生命力的内核；"运"为催化：Lisa 等明星的偶然曝光成 为破圈契机，二手市场溢价、高价拍卖则放大热度。Labubu 的发展历程，是泡泡玛特践行 IP 集团化战略的体现，IP 矩阵分层开发、娱乐场景立体渗透（乐园沉浸+游戏互动+影视叙事）和 全球化文化适配，推动从潮玩向综合性娱乐集团的转型，将"运"转化为"势"的延续力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 蔡方羿 高超 仲敏丽 SAC：S0490516060001 SAC：S0490516080001 SAC：S0490522050001 SFC：BUV463 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [14]. Core Insights - OpenAI is set to release the GPT-5 model on August 8, 2025, with indications of significant advancements in reasoning and programming capabilities, surpassing human benchmarks in certain tests [10]. - GPT-5 is expected to enhance multi-modal capabilities, software engineering skills, and AI Agent functionalities, potentially leading to a pivotal moment in user experience and application scenarios [10]. - The introduction of a "universal verifier" aims to address challenges in evaluating reasoning models, enhancing the reliability of outputs from large models like GPT-5 [10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring OpenAI's upcoming announcements and the potential for accelerated commercialization of AI Agents across various sectors, including education and healthcare [10]. Summary by Sections Event Description - OpenAI will host a live event to announce the GPT-5 model, indicated by a unique spelling of "livestream" [7]. Event Commentary - GPT-5's performance in reasoning tests shows a score of 90%, outperforming the human benchmark of 83.7% and significantly exceeding Gemini 2.5 Pro's score of 62.4% [10]. - The report highlights the expected improvements in multi-modal processing, software engineering, and AI Agent capabilities, suggesting a move towards more autonomous task execution [10]. - The "universal verifier" technology is designed to enhance the evaluation of reasoning models, ensuring quality in outputs even in subjective domains [10]. - The report suggests a focus on AI Agent-related companies, domestic AI chip leaders, cloud service providers, and IDC firms collaborating with major tech companies [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - During the week from July 28 to August 2, 2025, the convertible bond market experienced intensified structural differentiation, with the index under slight pressure, mid - cap style leading the decline, and risk appetite marginally decreasing. The market style tilted towards growth, with technology and pharmaceutical themes driving the activity of related convertible bonds. The manufacturing sectors such as power equipment and electronics attracted more capital attention, and speculative varieties performed well. The valuation continued to undergo structural adjustment, with the repair momentum remaining in the medium - low price range and the high - price range under pressure. The supply rhythm of the primary market was stable, with many redemption and downward - revision events, and the speculative sentiment heated up. It is recommended to focus on individual bonds with fundamental support, valuation safety margins, and liquidity guarantees, and flexibly cope with style rotation and market fluctuations [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1待发转债格局如何？ - As of August 2, 2025, there were 75 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total planned fundraising scale of 108.2 billion yuan. The banking, power equipment, basic chemicals, and electronics sectors were the main sources of issuance, accounting for nearly 60% of the total scale. The banking sector led with a high average scale of 7.25 billion yuan, contributing nearly 27% of the scale, indicating its strong refinancing demand. The electronics and power equipment sectors led in terms of quantity, reflecting the active convertible bond financing of manufacturing enterprises. Among the 33 convertible bonds to be issued that had entered the exchange stage, the banking sector still dominated, accounting for 43% of the scale [13]. - The convertible bond projects of the banking, non - bank finance, and pharmaceutical biology sectors advanced slowly. The convertible bond projects of the national defense and military industry, public utilities, and transportation sectors had a stronger expectation of issuance. The manufacturing sectors such as electronics and automobiles had a strong financing willingness and a fast project advancement rhythm. From the perspective of asset - liability ratio, some industries such as basic chemicals, electronics, and communications had a stronger motivation to promote conversion after issuing convertible bonds [8][15]. 3.2 Market Theme Weekly Review 3.2.1 Equity Theme Weekly Review - During the week from July 28 to August 2, 2025, the trading themes in the equity market were active, with technology and pharmaceutical themes leading the rise. The optical module (CPO) index led the major theme directions with a weekly cross - week increase of 8.3% and a weekly trading volume of 263.13 billion yuan. The first - board non - ST index and the daily limit index had cross - week increases of over 7%. Pharmaceutical themes such as the pharmaceutical centralized procurement index and the COVID - 19 specific drug index also performed well. Some technology and new energy themes showed corrections [23]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Weekly Review - During the week from July 28 to August 2, 2025, the convertible bond market was under pressure, with the trading enthusiasm slightly declining, and the capital risk preference converging. The style switched to defensive varieties. The overall valuation was compressed, and the price structure continued to differentiate. The high - price range was under obvious pressure, while the valuation of low - price convertible bonds was repaired. The implied volatility fluctuated downward, and the market sentiment became cautious. The pharmaceutical and power equipment sectors still attracted capital. Individual bonds showed differentiation, and the leading gainers were mostly driven by strong underlying stocks, showing medium - to long - term and theme - speculative characteristics [25][27]. 3.3 Market Weekly Tracking 3.3.1 Main Indexes Corrected, and the Pharmaceutical Sector Remained the Main Line of the Week - During the week from July 28 to August 2, 2025, the main A - share indexes were generally under pressure. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.9% cross - week, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.6%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%. The small - and medium - cap stocks in the science and technology innovation category were relatively resistant to decline. The market's main funds continued to flow out, and the outflow pressure increased. The average daily trading volume of the whole market was about 1.8 trillion yuan, the same as last week [29]. - The A - share market continued the structural differentiation pattern. The pharmaceutical and technology sectors performed strongly, while the consumer and cyclical sectors showed differentiation. The market capital concentrated on the pharmaceutical and technology sectors, and was cautious about the cyclical and high - level correction sectors. In terms of trading volume, the electronics, pharmaceutical, and computer sectors had increased trading volumes, while the non - ferrous metals, power equipment, and machinery sectors had significant capital outflows [34][35]. 3.3.2 The Convertible Bond Market Continued to Strengthen, and Mid - Cap Convertible Bonds Performed Well - During the week from July 28 to August 2, 2025, the convertible bond market was under pressure, with all major indexes falling. Mid - cap convertible bonds led the decline, and small - cap convertible bonds were relatively resistant to decline. The trading activity of the convertible bond market declined, with the average daily trading volume of about 8.244 billion yuan, a decrease of 341 million yuan from the previous week. The convertible bond valuation was compressed according to the parity range and showed a differentiated pattern according to the market price range. The implied volatility of the convertible bond market fluctuated downward, and the market sentiment became cautious. The median price of convertible bonds oscillated downward [44][46][48]. - The convertible bond market by sector generally weakened, with the capital concentration slightly increasing. The pharmaceutical, building materials, and power equipment sectors had the highest average daily trading volumes. Individual bonds were generally under pressure, with technology and cyclical sectors performing better. The leading gainers were mostly driven by strong underlying stocks and showed high - elasticity and theme - speculative preferences [57][58][59]. 3.4 Issuance and Clause Tracking - During the week from July 28 to August 2, 2025, 1 convertible bond was listed, and 11 listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans. The total scale of the projects in the exchange acceptance stage and later was 50.05 billion yuan [66][67][68]. - In terms of downward - revision and redemption clauses, 4 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward - revision, 2 proposed downward - revision, 8 announced no downward - revision, 8 announced that they were expected to trigger early redemption, 7 announced no early redemption, and 3 announced early redemption [75][80].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [12][14]. Core Insights - Junshi Biosciences is one of the earliest innovative biotech companies in China, with a strong focus on innovation and a robust pipeline that is expected to enter a harvest phase soon. The company is experiencing a sales acceleration in its existing business, with multiple innovative assets entering Phase III clinical trials, indicating a potential turning point in its fundamentals [4][9][12]. - The core product, Toripalimab, is projected to achieve sales of 1.501 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 66% year-on-year growth. The subcutaneous formulation of Toripalimab is currently in Phase III clinical trials, which, upon approval, is expected to further solidify its market position [9][12]. - The company has over 50 products in its pipeline, covering various therapeutic areas, including oncology, autoimmune diseases, chronic metabolic diseases, neurological disorders, and infectious diseases. The year 2025 is anticipated to be a breakthrough year for the company [9][35]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Junshi Biosciences, established in December 2012, is an innovative pharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of innovative therapies. It was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2018 and on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board in 2020 [9][22]. Sales and Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.948 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.67%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.281 billion yuan, indicating a significant reduction in losses. The existing business is entering a phase of explosive growth, driven by the expansion of indications for Toripalimab and the launch of new products [33][35]. Pipeline and Clinical Development - Junshi Biosciences has a rich early-stage pipeline with comprehensive technology platforms. Key assets such as JS203, JS107, JS207, and JT002 are expected to advance to Phase III clinical trials soon. The company is also exploring various combination therapies to enhance the potential of its PD-1/VEGF dual antibody product, JS207 [10][11][51]. - The report highlights the potential of several innovative drug assets that require re-evaluation of their value, particularly JS107, JS207, and JS015, which are positioned favorably in the competitive landscape [10][12][40]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenues of 2.681 billion yuan, 3.673 billion yuan, and 5.479 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits projected to improve significantly by 2027 [12][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that high-level intelligent driving is accelerating the penetration of steer-by-wire (SBW) systems, which are expected to replace traditional mechanical chassis. The steer-by-wire technology is currently in the product introduction phase and is anticipated to enter mass production in 2025. The market for steer-by-wire is projected to reach 68.3 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 7.9% from 2023 to 2030 [3][9]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The demand for automotive intelligence is driving the continuous upgrade of intelligent driving systems, with L2 and above levels expected to penetrate over 50% of the market. The steer-by-wire system, currently with a penetration rate of less than 1%, has significant growth potential [6][25]. Trends - The transition from mechanical steering to electric steering and now to steer-by-wire is evident. The electric power steering (EPS) market is nearing saturation, with a penetration rate close to 100%. The steer-by-wire system is expected to become a key component in L3 and above autonomous driving, with a projected domestic penetration rate of 30% by 2030 [7][49]. Market Structure - The EPS market is primarily dominated by foreign companies, with the top five players holding significant market shares. Domestic companies are expected to catch up in the steer-by-wire market, with some already achieving mass production [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the steer-by-wire system is on the verge of mass production, presenting substantial growth opportunities for domestic companies. It recommends companies like Top Group and Berteli, which are making significant progress in this area [9][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company has released its mid-year performance forecast for 2025, indicating a revenue of no less than 3.05 billion (approximately +37% year-on-year) and a net profit of no less than 790 million (approximately +215% year-on-year), exceeding expectations [2][4]. - The strong performance of self-developed games and the continued growth trend of TapTap are key drivers for the company's success [2][4]. - The company has a promising pipeline of new games and is expanding its community platform, which is expected to contribute to future growth [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company forecasts a revenue of at least 3.05 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 37% [2][4]. - The net profit is projected to be at least 790 million, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 215% [2][4]. Game Development and Community Growth - Self-developed games such as "Ragnarok M: Beginner's Server," "Heart Town," and "Torchlight: Infinite" have shown strong performance, boosting revenue and gross margin [7]. - TapTap's monthly active users (MAU) remain stable year-on-year, with improvements in advertising algorithms and user engagement driving revenue and profit growth [7]. - The company has successfully launched new games, with "Heart Town" achieving a top 10 ranking in sales and "Etheria: Restart" entering the top 50 in the U.S. sales chart [7]. Strategic Investments - The company is expanding its game portfolio by acquiring a 5.3% stake in MiAO for 14 million USD, a startup founded by the former CEO of Giant, which has expertise in social games [7].

Summary of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA) - The OBBBA is a comprehensive policy initiative from Trump, focusing on tax reform, spending adjustments, and raising the debt ceiling, with a projected increase in deficit of $3.9 trillion over ten years[5]. - Tax cuts are the core of the OBBBA, extending and expanding the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), while tax increases are minimal, expected to reduce the deficit by only $0.7 trillion[5][21]. - Spending cuts primarily target healthcare, education, food assistance, and energy, with healthcare reforms expected to save approximately $1.1 trillion over ten years[5][24]. - The act increases military and immigration spending, adding approximately $0.17 trillion and $0.18 trillion to the deficit, respectively[5][29]. - The debt ceiling is raised from $36.1 trillion to $41.1 trillion, preventing technical default risks on U.S. debt[5][32]. Economic Impact - The OBBBA is projected to have a limited long-term impact on GDP, with estimates suggesting a change between -0.1% and 1.3% over ten years, translating to an average annual GDP growth boost of less than 0.2%[6][36]. - The act's short-term economic stimulus is significant, particularly during Trump's term, with a notable GDP increase expected in 2026[6][48]. - The structure of the act creates a "front-loaded" deficit increase during Trump's presidency, potentially leading to fiscal tightening for the next administration if no new expansionary measures are implemented[6][57]. Social Implications - While the act provides short-term tax relief for families, it also reduces welfare benefits, which may exacerbate income inequality in the long run[5][8]. - The combination of tax cuts and welfare reductions could lead to a widening wealth gap, particularly affecting low-income households[5][8][27].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry, specifically the soda ash sector, is "Positive" and maintained [15]. Core Insights - The report discusses why soda ash is considered a potential good sector for "anti-involution" in the chemical industry, the impact of real estate downturns on soda ash demand, factors driving capacity reduction in the soda ash industry, the emergence of natural soda ash resources in Inner Mongolia, the current market position of soda ash, the elasticity of listed companies in the sector, and highlights of the leading natural soda ash company, Boyuan Chemical [3][7]. Summary by Sections Why is soda ash considered a potential good sector for "anti-involution"? - Soda ash has a global pricing mechanism, and after recent price declines, it has shown a "sales radius" effect. Domestic overproduction has led to a downturn in market conditions, while downstream applications like photovoltaic glass have significant overseas demand, making it a typical "involution" industry. The price of soda ash has dropped significantly since its peak in 2021, with many leading companies reporting losses in recent quarters. The cost curve for soda ash is steep, indicating a clear competitive disparity among companies, which may lead to market exit for less competitive players. The overall operating rate for soda ash remains around 80%, suggesting limited overcapacity and manageable exit challenges. Additionally, potential policy measures related to energy consumption and facility upgrades could accelerate industry clearing from "involution" [7][27]. How to view the impact of real estate downturn on soda ash? - The demand for soda ash from flat glass is declining, with projections indicating that it will account for about 30% of soda ash demand by 2024. Considering the demand from automotive glass and renovation needs, the impact of real estate completions on soda ash demand is estimated to be around 20%. In a pessimistic scenario where completions drop to 50-60% in 2024, the impact on soda ash demand could be approximately 8-10%. However, emerging sectors such as photovoltaic glass, lithium carbonate, and other long-tail demands are expected to effectively offset the decline in real estate demand [8][28]. What factors may drive capacity reduction in the soda ash industry? - Energy consumption and facility upgrades are seen as key drivers for "anti-involution" in the soda ash sector. The proportion of soda ash production capacity that meets energy efficiency benchmarks is still below the guidelines set by the National Development and Reform Commission. Additionally, 31% of soda ash facilities are over 20 years old, which is relatively high compared to other chemical sub-industries [9][52]. What is the impact of the emergence of natural soda ash resources in Inner Mongolia? - The report estimates that even with the planned production of natural soda ash, synthetic processes will still dominate the market. The pricing is expected to be anchored around the full cost of synthetic processes. The supply increase from the natural soda ash project is not anticipated to impact the market significantly until after 2028 [10][64]. What is the current market position of soda ash? - The current market conditions for soda ash are at a low point, with price differentials nearing historical lows and a safety margin in place. Many related listed companies have reported losses in recent quarters, with companies like Shandong Haihua, Xue Tian Salt Industry, and Zhongyan Chemical experiencing declining performance [11][44]. How elastic are listed companies in the soda ash sector, and what are the main recommended stocks? - At the industry bottom, the report recommends investing in Boyuan Chemical, a leading natural soda ash company with cost advantages. It also suggests monitoring the progress of the Naimanqi soda ash project by Zhongyan Chemical and potential developments regarding the leading natural soda ash company [12][62]. What are the highlights of the leading natural soda ash company, Boyuan Chemical? - Boyuan Chemical has three main highlights: growth potential, high dividend payout potential due to cost advantages, and price elasticity options. The company has been generous with dividends, with a payout ratio exceeding 5% in 2024, and has shown a declining debt ratio, indicating strong future cash flow. With the second phase of its project expected to contribute additional capacity, the company is positioned for substantial dividend potential and price elasticity [13][66].

Trade Performance - In July, China's exports reached $321.78 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 5.4%[6] - Imports totaled $223.54 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.1%, far surpassing the expected decline of 1%[6] - The trade surplus narrowed to $98.24 billion due to stronger import growth outpacing exports[6] Sector-Specific Insights - Semiconductor-related companies accelerated inventory buildup, leading to improved performance in integrated circuit exports[2] - The potential increase in drug pricing due to tariffs prompted domestic companies to expedite imports of medicinal materials and pharmaceuticals[2] - Exports to Latin America and Taiwan showed strong performance, with Taiwan exports increasing by 18.1% month-on-month[8] Risks and Future Outlook - The "rush" effect in trade is expected to be unsustainable, with potential risks of export pressure and import reliance on domestic demand[2] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies poses a significant risk to China's export outlook[7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the increasing attention on offshore wind project construction progress outside mainland China, with an expected addition of 5-6 GW of grid-connected capacity by 2025, primarily from the UK, Germany, France, and Taiwan [2][4][16] - The report indicates a decline in new competitive bidding for offshore wind projects, with approximately 34 GW expected in 2025, down from 58 GW in 2024, largely due to the impact of Trump-era policies on US offshore wind projects [5][25] - The report anticipates an acceleration in offshore wind project construction in the second half of the year, with domestic cable companies expected to increase shipments, leading to a recovery in performance [7][40] Summary by Sections 1. Offshore Wind Project Construction Progress - By 2025, offshore wind projects outside mainland China are expected to add 5-6 GW of grid-connected capacity, with Europe contributing 4.1 GW and the Asia-Pacific region contributing 2.3 GW [4][19] - The current status shows approximately 3.0 GW under construction and 3.3 GW already connected [4][19] 2. New Capacity Reserve Situation - New competitive bidding for offshore wind projects is estimated at 34 GW for 2025, with a significant regional distribution: Europe (24.8 GW), Asia-Pacific (7.3 GW), and Australia (2.0 GW) [5][25] - The new Final Investment Decision (FID) projects are approximately 6.5 GW, close to the 2024 total of 7.0 GW, with Europe accounting for 5.6 GW and Asia-Pacific for 0.9 GW [6][33] - New construction starts are projected at 12.4 GW, an increase from 9.6 GW in 2024, with Europe leading at 11.2 GW [6][36] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the offshore wind industry, suggesting continued growth in related sectors such as pile foundations, submarine cables, and wind turbine manufacturing [7][40]