- Convertible bond allocation and timing strategies are divided into three categories: debt-biased, balanced, and equity-biased convertible bonds. Allocation is based on equal weighting, with bonds meeting criteria such as a balance of over 3 billion and a rating of AA- or above. Debt-biased and balanced convertible bonds show higher Sharpe and Calmar ratios, indicating better long-term allocation value, while equity-biased convertible bonds exhibit higher annualized returns but greater volatility and drawdowns, making them less suitable for long-term holding[7][11][13] - CCBA pricing deviation indicator (convertible bond price/CCBA model pricing - 1) is introduced as a timing factor. This indicator effectively measures the option valuation level of convertible bonds and is used to construct timing strategies for debt-biased, balanced, and equity-biased convertible bonds. The strategy adjusts weights based on the Z-score of the past three years' pricing deviation, reducing convertible bond allocation when valuation is high[8][12][13] - Timing strategies significantly improve performance for equity-biased convertible bonds, with Sharpe and Calmar ratios increasing to 0.87 and 0.74, respectively. For debt-biased and balanced convertible bonds, timing has less impact, suggesting these categories are better suited for long-term allocation without frequent adjustments[13][16][17] - Relative return strategies include the "low valuation strategy," which selects the 15 convertible bonds with the lowest pricing deviation from the CCBA_out model in each category (debt-biased, balanced, equity-biased). This strategy achieves an annualized return of 21.7% and an excess return of 12.3% since 2018, demonstrating strong stability even during market downturns[32][35][36] - The "low valuation + strong momentum strategy" combines pricing deviation factors with stock momentum factors (1, 3, 6-month momentum scores). This strategy achieves an annualized return of 24.5% and an excess return of 14.7% since 2018, showing higher elasticity and strong performance in 2023 with a 9.0% absolute return[35][37][40] - The "low valuation + high turnover strategy" selects the lowest 50% valuation convertible bonds and further filters based on high turnover factors (5-day and 21-day turnover rates). This strategy achieves an annualized return of 23.4% and an excess return of 13.7% since 2018, with stable excess returns in 2023 and a 10.9% absolute return[39][41][44] - Absolute return strategies include the "balanced debt-biased enhancement strategy," which uses turnover rate factors and stock momentum factors for debt-biased bonds and turnover rate factors for balanced bonds. This strategy achieves an annualized return of 23.1% since 2018, with low volatility and drawdowns[44][45][47] - The "credit bond substitution strategy" selects convertible bonds with YTM+1% greater than 3-year AA-rated credit bond YTM, combined with stock momentum factors for allocation. This strategy achieves an annualized return of 7.3% since 2018, with volatility and drawdowns below 3%[48][51][52] - The "volatility control strategy" combines enhanced strategies for debt-biased, balanced, and equity-biased convertible bonds with credit bonds, controlling portfolio volatility at 4%. This strategy achieves an annualized return of 10.0% since 2018, with volatility and drawdowns around 4%-5%[53][55][56]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The first round of China-US trade talks has made substantial progress, exceeding market expectations, which will inject more certainty and stability into the global economy, further highlighting the irreplaceability of Chinese manufacturing and enhancing the investment value of Chinese assets [3] - The latest comprehensive tariff rate imposed by the US on China has decreased to 42.5%, which is expected to reduce China's exports by 4.0-5.2 percentage points and GDP by 0.5-0.7 percentage points, indicating significant downward pressure on China's economy [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring three key areas regarding China-US negotiations: potential fluctuations in tariffs, the main topics of negotiation, and the progress of negotiations between the US and other countries that may involve China [3] Group 2: Convertible Bonds - The report indicates that balanced convertible bonds have a high risk premium and are suitable for long-term allocation, while timing strategies have not significantly improved performance [4] - Conversely, equity-linked convertible bonds have a low risk premium but high timing value, with strategies based on valuation improving risk-adjusted returns [4] Group 3: Communication Industry - The company focuses on the optical communication industry, with its main business covering optical chips and devices, benefiting from the rapid development of AI and increasing demand from data centers [5] - The projected net profits for the company are estimated at 382 million, 539 million, and 713 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 35, 25, and 19 [5] Group 4: Electronics Industry - The company is a leader in video codec technology and is expanding into new fields such as automotive electronics and edge AI, with a comprehensive product plan for AI SoC series [6] - Expected revenues for the company are projected to be 2.49 billion, 3.07 billion, and 3.63 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with net profits of 140 million, 230 million, and 310 million yuan, respectively [6] Group 5: Automotive Industry - The company reported a revenue of 3.6 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 revenue increased by 12% year-on-year, driven by growth in domestic new energy vehicle sales [8] - The company has maintained a competitive edge through continuous investment in technology and R&D, enhancing its production capabilities and expanding its product offerings [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [3][17]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer in the optical chip industry, focusing on optical chips and devices, indoor optical cables, and cable materials. The optical chip business is becoming the core engine of the company, benefiting from the rapid development of AI and the growing demand for data centers [1][19]. - The upgrade of optical module speeds is opening up market space for AWG chips, with the company already achieving mass shipments of AWG components for 400G and 800G optical modules in 2024. The demand for AWG products is expected to grow as optical modules continue to evolve [1][16]. - The acquisition of a 53% stake in Dongguan Fokexima Communications Technology Co., Ltd. is expected to enhance the company's production capacity and strengthen its position in the supply chain, further integrating the MPO business [2][16]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in optical communication, with its main business covering optical chips and devices, indoor optical cables, and cable materials. Key products include PLC splitters, AWG chips, DFB laser chips, and various types of optical cables [1][21]. - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with a strong and stable management team that has extensive experience in the optical communication industry [24]. Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve net profits of 382 million, 539 million, and 713 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35, 25, and 19 [3][17]. - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.075 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 42.4%, and a net profit of 65 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 236.6% [5][28]. Market Trends - The optical communication industry is evolving towards higher bandwidth, lower power consumption, and higher speed, with the company positioned to benefit from the growth in demand for AWG and MPO optical devices [3][15]. - The report highlights the increasing importance of AWG chips in high-speed optical modules and the necessity of MPO solutions in addressing complex wiring challenges in data centers [18][15]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a strong competitive position as one of the few domestic suppliers of AWG chips, having developed and mass-produced AWG chips for data centers since 2017 [16][15]. - Continuous investment in R&D and optimization of customer structure are key strategies for enhancing the company's competitiveness in the rapidly evolving optical communication market [17][32].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer in the optical chip industry, focusing on optical chips and devices, indoor optical cables, and cable materials, with its optical chip business becoming a core growth engine due to the rapid development of AI and increasing demand from data centers [1][19] - The upgrade of optical module speeds opens up market space for AWG chips, with the company already achieving mass shipments of AWG components for 400G and 800G optical modules in 2024, benefiting from the rapid iteration of optical modules [1][16] - The acquisition of a 53% stake in Dongguan Fokexima Communications Technology Co., Ltd. is expected to enhance the company's production capacity and integrate the supply chain, further driving demand for MPO products due to the construction of high-density, high-speed data centers [2][16] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a strong focus on the optical communication industry, with its main business covering optical chips and devices, indoor optical cables, and cable materials, and has successfully achieved mass production of PLC splitters and AWG chips [19][21] - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with a strong and stable management team that has extensive experience in the optical communication field [24] Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 382 million, 539 million, and 713 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35, 25, and 19 times [3][17] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.075 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%, and a net profit of 65 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 236.6% [5][28] Market Trends - The optical communication industry is evolving towards higher bandwidth, lower power consumption, and higher speed, with the company positioned to benefit from the significant market space for AWG and MPO optical devices [3][15] - The demand for MPO products is expected to grow due to the complexity of data center wiring and the implementation of CPO solutions [2][18] Competitive Advantages - The company has established a first-mover advantage in the AWG chip market, having developed and shipped AWG chips for data centers since 2017, and is well-positioned to capture market share as demand for AWG products increases [16][17] - Continuous investment in R&D and optimization of customer structure are key strategies for enhancing the company's competitive position in the industry [17][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 3.6 billion and a net profit of 430 million, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8% and 14% respectively. In Q1 2025, revenue increased by 12% year-on-year to 870 million, while net profit decreased by 17% [1]. - The growth in revenue for Q1 2025 was driven by increased demand from major clients such as Tesla, Li Auto, NIO, and BYD, despite a decline in Tesla's global production [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its technological and research capabilities, particularly in mold development and stamping welding technology, which are crucial for maintaining its competitive edge in the automotive parts industry [2]. - The company is expanding its business layout by venturing into integrated die-casting, hot forming, and composite materials, with expectations for large-scale production to begin in the second half of 2025 [2]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 500 million, 580 million, and 670 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 10 times [3]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 4.1 billion in 2025 to 5.5 billion in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 15% and 16% [4]. - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 2.09, 2.42, and 2.80 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4].

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 05 13 年 月 日 模塑科技（000700.SZ） 2025Q1 扣非业绩同环比高增，盈利能力修复 事件：公司 2025Q1 实现营收 16 亿元，同/环比分别-11.65%/-15.27%； 归母净利润 1.5 亿元，同/环比分别+2.74%/+70.15%；扣非归母净利润 1.4 亿元，同/环比分别+45.09%/+145.62%。 2025Q1 扣非业绩同环比高增，盈利能力修复。行业层面，根据 Wind 数 据，2025Q1 国内乘用车销量环比-28%，公司部分核心客户华晨宝马环比 -27%，北京奔驰环比-17%，上汽通用环比-30%，特斯拉全球环比-32%。 公司收入环比增速好于行业，预计主要受益于新势力客户的销量带动。盈 利能力方面，公司 2025Q1 净利率 9.26%，预计主要受益于国内工厂的新 项目爬坡，带动产能利用率恢复。 毛利率修复，费用率环比略有提升。公司 2025Q1 单季度毛利率 20.9%， 同/环比+3.7/3.8 PCT，我们预计主要受益于国内以旧换新带动下游销量 修复，以及公司自身经营效率提升。期间费用率合计 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.6 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.65% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15.27%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 150 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.74% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 70.15%. The non-recurring net profit was 140 million, with a year-on-year increase of 45.09% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 145.62% [1] - The company's performance in Q1 2025 indicates a recovery in profitability, benefiting from the sales boost from new energy vehicle clients, despite a general decline in domestic passenger car sales [1][2] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.9%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.8 percentage points, attributed to improved operational efficiency and the domestic vehicle replacement policy [2] - The company is actively expanding its client base in the new energy sector while maintaining its advantages with luxury car manufacturers, with new projects expected to generate significant sales [2] Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 to be 699 million, 795 million, and 898 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10, 8, and 7 times [2][3] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 8.118 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.8% [3] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025 is expected to be 0.76, with a net asset return rate of 18.1% [3][7]

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 13 年 月 日 宏观点评 "东升"再强化—中美经贸会谈大超预期的 4 点理解 事件：5 月 12 日 15：00，中美发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，大幅降 低双边关税水平，并建立机制、继续就经贸关系进行协商。 核心观点：中美首轮经贸会谈取得实质性进展、大超市场预期，这将为 世界经济注入更多确定性和稳定性，进一步凸显了中国制造的不可替 代性，也将进一步提升中国资产的投资价值。测算发现，最新美国对中 国的综合关税税率下降至 42.5%（2018 年以来 10.9%基础关税+20% 芬太尼关税+带豁免的 10%全球对等关税+25%的特定行业关税），预 计拖累我国出口 4.0-5.2 个百分点，拖累我国 GDP 0.5-0.7 个百分点， 指向我国经济下行压力仍大，预示不会改变我国扩张性政策的大方向， 尤其是全力扩内需、大力中央加杠杆，我们也继续提示"不宜等到花儿 枯萎了再浇水"。往后看，中美关税不确定性仍大，重点关注 3 大方面： 1）中美谈判进展，不排除出现关税反复的可能性；2）中美谈判议题， 可能主要针对关税和非关税壁垒、贸易再平衡、经济安全 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 3.6 billion and a net profit of 430 million, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8% and 14% respectively. In Q1 2025, revenue increased by 12% year-on-year to 870 million, while net profit decreased by 17% [1]. - The growth in revenue for Q1 2025 was driven by increased demand from major clients such as Tesla, Li Auto, NIO, and BYD, as domestic new energy vehicle sales rose by 47% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its technological and research capabilities, particularly in mold development and stamping welding technology, which are crucial for maintaining its competitive edge in the automotive parts industry [2]. - The company is expanding its business layout by venturing into integrated die-casting, hot forming, and composite materials, with expectations for large-scale production of integrated die-casting by the second half of 2025 [2]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 3.6 billion in 2024, with a projected revenue of 4.1 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 15% year-on-year. The net profit is expected to recover to 498 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 17.3% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.09, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.5 [4]. - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.9%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating improved profitability [1].

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 13 年 月 日 宏观点评 "东升"再强化—中美经贸会谈大超预期的 4 点理解 事件：5 月 12 日 15：00，中美发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，大幅降 低双边关税水平，并建立机制、继续就经贸关系进行协商。 核心观点：中美首轮经贸会谈取得实质性进展、大超市场预期，这将为 世界经济注入更多确定性和稳定性，进一步凸显了中国制造的不可替 代性，也将进一步提升中国资产的投资价值。测算发现，最新美国对中 国的综合关税税率下降至 42.5%（2018 年以来 10.9%基础关税+20% 芬太尼关税+带豁免的 10%全球对等关税+25%的特定行业关税），预 计拖累我国出口 4.0-5.2 个百分点，拖累我国 GDP 0.5-0.7 个百分点， 指向我国经济下行压力仍大，预示不会改变我国扩张性政策的大方向， 尤其是全力扩内需、大力中央加杠杆，我们也继续提示"不宜等到花儿 枯萎了再浇水"。往后看，中美关税不确定性仍大，重点关注 3 大方面： 1）中美谈判进展，不排除出现关税反复的可能性；2）中美谈判议题， 可能主要针对关税和非关税壁垒、贸易再平衡、经济安全 ...