公 司 报 告 食品饮料 2025年04月30日 贵州茅台(600519.SH) 业绩稳健增长，经营韧性十足 推荐 ( 维持) 相关研究报告 【平安证券】贵州茅台（600519.SH）*年报点评*24 年业绩略超预告，25年目标稳中求进*推荐20250403 证券分析师 张晋溢 投资咨询资格编号 事项： 贵州茅台发布1季报，1Q25公司实现营业总收入514亿元，同比+10.7%，归母 净利268亿元，同比+11.6%。 股价:1544元 行情走势图 司 季 平安观点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 S1060521030001 ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 王萌 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522030001 WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 王星云 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523100001 wangxingyun937@pingan.com.cn | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 147,694 | 170, ...

公 司 报 告 银行 2025 年 4 月 30 日 成都银行(601838.SH) 扩表积极，资产质量优异 强烈推荐（维持） 股价：17.26 元 主要数据 | 行业 | 银行 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.bocd.com.cn | | 大股东/持股 | 成都交子金融控股集团有限公司 | | | /20.00% | | 实际控制人 | 成都市人民政府 | | 总股本(百万股) | 4,238 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 4,231 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | | | 总市值（亿元） | 732 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 730 | | 每股净资产(元) | 19.50 | | 资产负债率(%) | 93.4 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】成都银行（601838.SH）*季报点评*盈利 稳健增长，资产质量保持优异*强烈推荐20241030 证券分析师 | 袁喆奇 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520080003 | | | YUANZHEQI052@pingan.com.cn | | 许淼 | ...

公 司 报 告 房地产 2025年04月30日 华发股份(600325.SH) 销售规模增长，回购彰显信心 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:5.11元 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】华发股份（600325.SH）*年报点评*销 售稳居千亿阵营，投资审慎债务合理*推荐20250316 证券分析师 杨侃 投资咨询资格编号 S1060514080002 事项： 公司公布2025年一季报，一季度实现营业收入184.8亿元，同比增长164.1%， 归母净利润1.9亿元，同比下降45.4%。 平安观点： 公 司 季 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 BQV514 YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn 多因素致利润承压，股份回购彰显信心：2025Q1公司实现营业收入 184.8亿元，同比增长164.1%，归母净利润1.9亿元，同比下降45.4%。 归母净利润增速低于营收主要因：1）毛利率同比下降6.2个百分点至 8.8%；2）财务费用同比增加，财务费用率同比提升0.5个百分点至 1.5%；3）投资收益同比减少3亿元。Q1末合同负债754.9亿元，待结算 资源相对充足。2024年10月公司董事会审议通过回购股份 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [1][7]. Core Views - The company has shown good momentum at the start of 2025, with improved profitability. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 4.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and a net profit of 470 million yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.27 billion, 1.33 billion, and 1.39 billion yuan respectively [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - 2023A revenue was 14.82 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 14.94 billion yuan for 2025E, reflecting a 2.0% year-on-year growth. The net profit for 2023A was 1.34 billion yuan, with an expected increase to 1.27 billion yuan in 2025E, showing a 14.1% growth from the previous year [6][8]. - **Margins**: - The gross margin for 1Q25 was 48.4%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin improved to 10.9%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7][8]. - **Cost Management**: - The company has effectively managed its costs, with sales and management expense ratios at 12.7% and 3.4% respectively, showing a decrease in sales expenses and a slight increase in management expenses [7][8]. Market and Product Insights - **Product Segmentation**: - In 1Q25, revenue from premium, mainstream, and economy products was 2.6 billion, 1.55 billion, and 90 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 1%, 2%, and 6% year-on-year [7]. - **Regional Performance**: - Revenue from different regions in 1Q25 showed balanced growth, with the Northwest, Central, and Southern regions generating 1.18 billion, 1.83 billion, and 1.23 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 1.6%, 1.4%, and 1.8% [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) with a current stock price of 63.66 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company has increased its R&D investment significantly, leading to a small batch delivery of high-end flagship chips. Despite this, the profit margins are under pressure due to the high R&D costs [7][8]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.082 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.28%, but reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 68.26 million yuan, a decrease of 249.52% year-on-year [4][7]. - The company is positioned as a rare domestic Ethernet switch chip design enterprise, with a rich product lineup targeting the mid-to-high-end market. The demand for high-performance switching chips in emerging fields like cloud computing and data centers is expected to drive future growth [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.082 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.28%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -68.26 million yuan, a decrease of 249.52% year-on-year [4][7]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 223 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.30%, with a net loss of 15.20 million yuan, a decrease of 150.42% year-on-year [4][7]. Revenue and Profitability - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 40.11%, an increase of 3.85 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -6.31%, a decrease of 4.43 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company’s R&D expenses reached 428 million yuan in 2024, a growth of 36.40%, reflecting its commitment to high-end chip development [7][8]. Product Development - The company has successfully delivered high-end flagship chips in small batches, with a focus on Ethernet switch chips, which generated 835 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 5.54% [8]. - The product range includes high-end chips with port speeds reaching 800G and switching capacities of 12.8Tbps and 25.6Tbps, which are competitive with international products [8]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for high-speed network communication equipment driven by the AI industry and the need for domestic supply chain independence [8]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.321 billion yuan, 1.781 billion yuan, and 2.285 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH) with a current stock price of 28.79 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 115.39 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 32.94 billion yuan, an increase of 1.46% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 17.71% year-on-year to 4.87 billion yuan [3][4]. - The report highlights that the liquid milk segment remains the market leader despite a revenue decline of 12.32% to 75.00 billion yuan. The milk powder segment saw a revenue increase of 7.53% to 29.68 billion yuan, driven by innovation in infant nutrition products [6][7]. - The financial outlook suggests a gradual recovery in revenue as consumer demand improves, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 10.74 billion yuan, 11.64 billion yuan, and 12.71 billion yuan respectively [7][9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Trends**: - 2024 revenue: 115.39 billion yuan, 2025E: 119.20 billion yuan, 2026E: 124.21 billion yuan, 2027E: 129.80 billion yuan [5]. - 2024 net profit: 8.45 billion yuan, 2025E: 10.74 billion yuan, 2026E: 11.64 billion yuan, 2027E: 12.71 billion yuan [5]. - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross margin for 2024 is projected at 33.88%, with a net margin of 7.3% [6][7]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 21.7 for 2024, decreasing to 14.4 by 2027 [5][9]. Market Position - Yili maintains a strong market position in the liquid milk sector, holding the largest market share despite recent revenue declines. The company is also a leader in the adult milk powder market with a 24% market share [6][7]. Regional Performance - Revenue by region shows a decline across all areas, with North China leading at 32.19 billion yuan, down 5.15% year-on-year. South China and Central China also experienced declines of 9.81% and 13.46% respectively [6]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The cash flow from operating activities for 2024 is projected at 21.59 billion yuan, with a net increase in cash of -18.41 billion yuan due to significant investment outflows [9]. - The total assets for 2024 are estimated at 153.72 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.9% [8].

公 司 报 告 汽车 2025 年 04 月 30 日 华域汽车(600741.SH) 客户结构调整，业绩维持稳定 推荐（维持） 股价：17 元 主要数据 | 行业 | 汽车 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.hasco-group.com | | 大股东/持股 | 上海汽车集团股份有限公司/58.32% | | 实际控制人 | 上海市国有资产监督管理委员会 | | 总股本(百万股) | 3,153 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 3,153 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | | | 总市值（亿元） | 536 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 536 | | 每股净资产(元) | 20.11 | | 资产负债率(%) | 63.1 | 行情走势图 证券分析师 | 王德安 | 投资咨询资格编号 S1060511010006 | | --- | --- | | | BQV509 | | | WANGDEAN002@pingan.com.cn | | 王跟海 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060523080001 | | | BVG944 | | | WANGGENH ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Binjiang Group (002244.SZ) with a current stock price of 10.05 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit, benefiting from the industry's "quality dividend" [1][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 22.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.27%, and a net profit of 976 million yuan, up 47.88% year-on-year [4]. - The company is focused on high-quality land acquisition and sales, ranking among the top in the industry for both land acquisition and sales volume [7]. - The strategic plan for 2025 includes a sales target of approximately 100 billion yuan, maintaining a market share of over 1% nationally [7]. - The company aims to strengthen its financial advantages by reducing interest-bearing debt to within 30 billion yuan and controlling financing costs below 3.3% [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 69.15 billion yuan, 70.19 billion yuan, 70.89 billion yuan, and 71.46 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.8%, 1.5%, 1.0%, and 0.8% [6]. - Net profit estimates for the same years are 2.55 billion yuan, 2.82 billion yuan, 3.08 billion yuan, and 3.34 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.7%, 10.6%, 9.4%, and 8.4% [6]. - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 12.5% in 2024A to 14.0% in 2027E, while net margin is expected to rise from 3.7% to 4.7% over the same period [6][9]. - The report forecasts EPS of 0.91 yuan, 0.99 yuan, and 1.07 yuan for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.1, 10.2, and 9.4 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expectation of stock performance that will exceed market performance by 10% to 20% over the next six months [9]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from strong terminal demand, with both volume and profit anticipated to rise. The wind power sector is projected to see significant growth, with domestic wind turbine bidding expected to reach 164.1 GW in 2024, a 90% year-on-year increase [6][7]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 4.696 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.87% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 29.55% to 624 million yuan [3][5]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on expanding its product offerings and entering new markets, particularly in the nuclear waste storage sector and special alloy steel products [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.696 billion yuan, with a net profit of 624 million yuan, reflecting a 29.55% increase year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant revenue increase of 86.41% year-on-year, reaching 1.301 billion yuan [3][5]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is projected at 17.3%, with a net margin of 13.3% [5][8]. Production and Capacity - The company has established a casting capacity of 700,000 tons and precision processing capacity of 420,000 tons, with expectations for improved capacity utilization in 2025 [6][7]. - The report notes that the company sold 490,400 tons of castings in 2024, a 9.58% increase year-on-year, despite a slight decline in profitability due to increased competition and price drops in the wind power casting sector [6]. Market Outlook - The wind power industry is expected to experience a recovery, with the company’s wind power casting business projected to rebound as demand increases and prices stabilize [7]. - The report anticipates that the company will continue to optimize its product structure, focusing on larger products and international clients, which could enhance profitability [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [1][4][12] Core Views - The company reported a slight increase in profit, with a net profit of 3 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 34%, despite a 32.2% decline in revenue to 9.74 billion yuan [5][8] - The company's commercial operations are stable, with a rental rate of 97.22% for its 174 properties, generating a total commercial revenue of 3.45 billion yuan, up 13.5% year-on-year [8] - The report highlights a dual-driven strategy of "real estate development + commercial operation" as a key factor for future growth [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 61.943 billion yuan, 44.103 billion yuan, and 32.813 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 30.4%, 28.8%, and 25.6% [7][10] - Net profit estimates for the same period are 760 million yuan, 779 million yuan, and 894 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 1.1%, 2.5%, and 14.8% [7][10] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 19.9% in 2025 to 21.2% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 1.2% to 2.7% over the same period [7][10] Key Financial Ratios - The company's asset-liability ratio is projected to decrease from 73.1% in 2024 to 53.0% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decline from 40.1 in 2024 to 33.7 in 2027, suggesting a more attractive valuation over time [10] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain stable at around 1.2% for the next few years, with a slight increase to 1.4% by 2027 [10]