Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold - The weakening of the US dollar credit remains the core logic for gold pricing in 2025, with a notable negative correlation between gold prices and the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves [11][12] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle into 2026, which may support gold prices, especially with concerns over the independence of monetary policy due to potential changes in leadership [13][15] - The long-term trend of weakening US dollar credit is not expected to change, with the US fiscal deficit projected to reach 6.9% of GDP in 2024, indicating ongoing structural issues in the US fiscal system [16][17] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Supply constraints for copper are expected to intensify, with significant disruptions in overseas copper mining projects leading to a projected decrease in output by over 100,000 tons in 2025 [23][24] - The demand for copper is anticipated to grow significantly due to the rise of AI and data centers, with each MW of installed capacity requiring approximately 27 tons of copper [27][28] - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by a weak dollar and continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to drive copper prices upward [29][31] Group 3: Energy Metals - The supply of lithium and cobalt is expected to improve significantly due to the end of overseas capacity clearances and the implementation of supply constraint policies by major producing countries [33] - The demand for energy metals is projected to benefit from the resilience of battery technologies and the growth of the energy storage sector, leading to a positive supply-demand dynamic [33][34] Group 4: Tin - The supply of tin is tightening due to regulatory changes in Indonesia and ongoing production disruptions in Myanmar, with exports from Indonesia declining by approximately 20% year-on-year [45][46] - The global demand for refined tin is expected to grow, particularly in the electronics sector, driven by high semiconductor sales and the increasing use of tin solder in AI and high-performance computing applications [51]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][55]. Core Viewpoints - Precious Metals - Gold: Strong expectations for interest rate cuts have led to a fluctuating increase in gold prices. As of December 5, the COMEX gold futures contract reached $4227.7 per ounce, a decrease of 0.67% month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.5% to 1050 tons. The U.S. manufacturing PMI for October was 48.7, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month. In the short term, gold prices may remain volatile due to unclear expectations, but in the long term, the ongoing U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credit are expected to support higher gold prices [3][4]. - Industrial Metals: The spot market fundamentals are tightening rapidly, with a positive outlook for copper prices. As of December 5, the SHFE copper futures contract rose by 6.1% to 92,780 yuan per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 159,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons month-on-month. The LME copper inventory stood at 163,000 tons. The increase in LME canceled warrants suggests a significant rise in future outflows, indicating a tightening supply situation [5][6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to macroeconomic uncertainties and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The long-term outlook remains positive, particularly with the weakening dollar credit narrative [3][6]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The tightening supply and increasing demand from domestic and emerging markets are expected to drive copper prices higher. The current market conditions suggest a mid-term upward revaluation of copper prices [5][6]. - **Aluminum**: As of December 5, LME aluminum prices increased by 1.2% to $2900.5 per ton. The domestic aluminum social inventory remained stable at 596,000 tons. The macroeconomic environment is expected to support aluminum prices, which are likely to remain high [5][6]. - **Tin**: The SHFE tin futures contract rose by 4.1% to 317,500 yuan per ton. Supply concerns due to geopolitical issues in the Congo and regulatory tightening in Indonesia are expected to keep tin prices on an upward trend [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following sectors: - **Gold**: Continued macroeconomic uncertainty supports gold's safe-haven appeal. Recommended stock: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. - **Copper**: Increasing domestic demand and tightening supply conditions suggest a positive outlook. Recommended stock: Luoyang Molybdenum. - **Aluminum**: The supply-demand dynamics favor rising aluminum prices. Recommended stock: Tianshan Aluminum [6][51].

Industrial Sector - Raw material production is recovering, with steel and building materials output rebounding this week[2] - The average daily pig iron production has decreased compared to the previous week[4] - The operating rate of asphalt and cement clinker has increased, while the float glass operating rate has declined[2][10] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 35.8% year-on-year as of December 5, with a 5.0 percentage point decline from the previous week[2] - The year-on-year decline in second-hand home listing prices narrowed to -0.66% as of November 24[22] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 291.2% as of December 5[2] - National retail sales of passenger cars in November were 2.263 million units, down 7% year-on-year, contrasting with a 6% increase in October[28] - The volume of postal express deliveries increased by 6.4% year-on-year as of November 30[30] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 3.2% year-on-year as of November 30, while container throughput rose by 9.6%[32] - South Korea's export value grew by 8.4% year-on-year in November, with a 4.8 percentage point increase from October[32] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index rose by 0.4%, with the non-ferrous metal index increasing by 2.4% this week[2] - The futures price of rebar increased by 1.5%, while the spot price rose by 0.9%[39]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, 康哲药业 (0867.HK), for the first time [7]. Core Views - The company has successfully transitioned into a new product era, with its innovative transformation showing significant results. The impact of national procurement on its products has reached a turning point, and the sales of exclusive/brand and innovative products continue to grow, indicating a recovery in performance [7]. - The company is focusing on dual engines of "cooperative research and independent research" to drive innovation, with a rich product pipeline covering multiple therapeutic areas. The company aims to enhance its market position through strategic international expansion and innovative product launches [6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Successful Innovation Transformation - The company has adopted a dual approach of "cooperative research + independent research" to efficiently promote clinical development and commercialization. It has transitioned from a single drug agency model to an innovation-driven pharmaceutical enterprise since 2018 [10]. - As of the first half of 2025, the company has a pipeline of 40 products, with five innovative products approved for sale in China [10]. 2. Impact of National Procurement - The company faced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2023 due to three products being included in national procurement, leading to a significant drop in sales and market share [12]. - In 2025, the company’s performance rebounded, achieving revenue of 40.02 billion yuan (up 10.8% year-on-year) and a net profit of 9.41 billion yuan (up 3.3% year-on-year) [12]. 3. Innovative Drug Strategy - The company has successfully launched four innovative drugs, with a focus on chronic kidney disease, psoriasis, and epilepsy. Two additional products are pending approval, and three are in clinical phase III trials [34][36]. - The company’s innovative pipeline includes products targeting skin health, with plans for a spin-off of 德镁医药 to unlock its value in the skin health sector [21][34]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 16.70 billion yuan, 20.05 billion yuan, and 23.72 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18, 15, and 12 times [7]. - The company’s P/E valuation for 2025 is estimated at 18 times, which is lower than the average P/E of comparable companies at 28 times [7].

Core Insights - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook despite ongoing challenges in the market [1] - The real estate market in 2025 is characterized by an initial recovery followed by a decline, with high inventory levels and weak demand impacting overall performance [4][13] - The report anticipates that the supportive policies for the real estate market will continue into 2026, although market confidence will take time to recover [4][5] Market Review - In 2025, the national real estate market experienced a decline in sales, with a 9.6% year-on-year drop in sales amount from January to October, although the decline was less severe than in 2024 [13] - The second-hand housing market outperformed the new housing market, with a reported 8% increase in transactions for the top ten cities compared to a 10.5% decline in new homes [13][46] - The overall market remains in an adjustment phase, with supply-demand relationships still needing improvement [13] 2026 Outlook - Positive factors are expected to converge, leading to a gradual stabilization of the real estate market, particularly in core urban areas and quality housing [4][5] - The report predicts a 6% decline in sales area and an 8.5% decline in investment for 2026, reflecting ongoing market pressures [4][5] Investment Opportunities - The demand for "good houses" is projected to grow, with an average annual improvement demand of 590 million square meters from 2025 to 2030, representing 67% of total demand [4] - Quality real estate companies with strong land acquisition and product capabilities are expected to benefit first from the "good house" trend, with companies like China Overseas Development and China Resources Land highlighted as potential beneficiaries [5][6] - The Hong Kong real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a 20.3% year-on-year increase in transaction volume for the first ten months of 2025, presenting investment opportunities for Hong Kong-based real estate firms [4][5][52] Key Company Forecasts - The report includes earnings forecasts for several key companies, indicating a positive outlook for firms like Poly Developments and China Overseas Development, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth over the next few years [6][7] - Companies with stable cash flow and dividends, such as China Resources Vientiane Life and Poly Property, are also recommended for investment consideration [5][6]

证券研究报告 医保基金数据跟踪：10月居民医保收入下降， 支出增加 医药行业 强于大市（维持） 证券分析师 叶寅 投资咨询资格编号:S1060514100001 邮箱：YEYIN757@PINGAN.COM.CN 倪亦道 投资咨询资格编号:S1060518070001 邮箱：NIYIDAO242@PINGAN.COM.CN 王钰畅 投资咨询资格编号:S1060524090001 邮箱：WANGYUCHANG804@PINGAN.COM.CN 2025年12月3日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心观点 2025年1-10月统筹医保基金收入维持正增长，且收入大于支出。2025年1-10月收入为23520.10亿元，同比增长1.97%，2025年1-10月支出 为19036.24亿元，同比下降0.68%。除5月外，统筹医保基金收入均大于支出，累计统筹医保基金2025年1-10月呈增长趋势。2025年1-10 月，统筹医保基金结余共计4483.86亿元，同比增长14.99%。结余率方面，2025年1-10月结余率为19.06%，同比2024年1-10月提升2.15pp， 2025年单10月结余率为27.84%，2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the biopharmaceutical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The development of commercial health insurance is supported by favorable policies, with significant potential for capital inflow. Since 2009, policies have continuously supported the establishment of a multi-level medical security system and the development of commercial health insurance. The sharing of medical insurance data with commercial insurance companies is entering a practical phase, which is expected to improve the insurance landscape [2][28] - The commercial health insurance sector is projected to reach a compensation scale of approximately 471.57 billion yuan by 2030 under neutral expectations, indicating substantial potential for the medical industry [31][32] Summary by Sections Part 1: Commercial Health Insurance is Flourishing, Compensation Growth is Expected - The demand side emphasizes the impact of premium pricing and the insurance needs of patients with pre-existing conditions and the elderly. The increase in disposable income and policies allowing the use of personal medical insurance accounts for purchasing health insurance are expected to enhance insurance uptake [11][12][29] - The supply side highlights the importance of product design in health management, special drug coverage, and deductible settings. Enhancements in these areas can attract more policyholders and improve profitability [20][21][28] Part 2: Current Situation: Insufficient Motivation for Innovative Drug and Device Use - The DRG payment system has reduced the motivation for hospitals to use innovative drugs and devices, necessitating the exploration of alternative payment sources. High-level hospitals face greater pressure under the DRG system, which may hinder the adoption of innovative treatments [35][39] Part 3: Commercial Insurance Development Benefits Innovative Drugs and DTP Pharmacies - The commercial health insurance sector is increasingly covering innovative drugs, with payments rising from 1.1 billion yuan in 2020 to 2.2 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 27.8%. The penetration rate for commercial health insurance in the innovative drug market remains low, indicating significant room for growth [67][68] - DTP pharmacies are emerging as a crucial channel for the distribution of innovative drugs, providing a pathway for patients to access high-value medications outside of traditional hospital settings [76][80] Part 4: Innovative Devices May Benefit from Commercial Insurance Development - Innovative medical devices, particularly those not fully covered by insurance, are expected to benefit from commercial insurance. The report suggests that high-value medical devices and certain surgical procedures may gain traction in the commercial insurance market [4][81] Part 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with rich pipelines in innovative drugs, such as Heng Rui Medicine and BeiGene, as well as DTP pharmacies and TPA (Third Party Administrator) companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the growth of commercial health insurance [4][81]

Market Review - The A-share market is gradually forming a slow bull trend, with technology growth as the main driver. As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index, ChiNext Index, and Sci-Tech 50 Index have increased by 16.0%, 42.5%, and 34.2% respectively, with sectors such as non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and power equipment leading the gains [10][15][18]. Market Environment - The external economic environment is expected to recover moderately, with the U.S. potentially entering a phase of "loose monetary + loose fiscal" policies. This is likely to sustain technology investment and maintain resilient consumer spending [23][24]. - Domestic new growth drivers continue to strengthen, with corporate profit expectations improving. The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes economic construction, and fiscal policies are expected to support technology innovation, livelihood security, and infrastructure investment [23][31]. - A-share corporate profitability is anticipated to continue improving, with certain industries such as military industry, power equipment, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and steel expected to see upward trends in profitability [23][26]. Structural Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines four major industrial directions, with technology and manufacturing as dual cores leading the way. Key areas include: 1. **Technology Innovation**: Focus on high-level technological self-reliance and nurturing emerging industries, with AI as a core investment theme. Global AI capital expenditure is expected to grow significantly, supporting high prosperity in related industries [23][31]. 2. **Advanced Manufacturing**: Strengthening the global leading position in advantageous manufacturing sectors, particularly in new energy and defense industries, which are expected to benefit from national security demands and military trade upgrades [23][31]. 3. **Domestic Circulation**: Building a strong domestic market to boost consumption and address internal competition issues. Policy support is expected to release new consumer demand potential [23][31]. 4. **Resource Security**: Enhancing the protection and utilization of strategic resources, with macroeconomic and fundamental resonance likely to drive up non-ferrous metal prices [23][31]. Market Outlook - The report suggests focusing on four main lines for investment opportunities: 1. **Technology Innovation**: Emphasizing the AI industry chain, including semiconductors, communications, PCB, applications, and robotics [23][31]. 2. **Advanced Manufacturing**: Paying attention to new energy and defense industries [23][31]. 3. **Upstream Cycles**: Monitoring price signals in non-ferrous metals and chemicals [23][31]. 4. **Domestic Consumption**: Focusing on new consumption trends [23][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The Q3 2025 quarterly report met expectations, showing a divergence between stable and cyclical sectors. After excluding the impact of expansion and fundraising, the Q3 2025 revenue decreased by 4% year-on-year. The completion rates of revenue and distributable income were 95% and 98% respectively, both showing marginal increases. Structurally, the trend of the cyclical sector declining and the stable sector growing steadily continued. Based on performance and its continuity, the sectors could be divided into three tiers: affordable housing and consumption > concession rights > industrial parks and warehousing [4]. - The stable sectors of affordable housing and consumption continued to grow steadily. After excluding the impact of expansion and fundraising, the occupancy rate of affordable housing showed little fluctuation. The revenue of the consumption sector increased by 4% year-on-year. The completion rates of revenue and distributable income of the two sectors, excluding new bonds, were both above 100%, ranking high among all sectors [4]. - Concession rights continued to show wide - range fluctuations. The environmental protection sector had positive fluctuations, with the revenue completion rate reaching the target, and the distributable income completion rate of Fuguo Shouchuang Water Service exceeding 130%. Negative fluctuations were mainly seen in transportation, energy, and water conservancy. The fluctuations in concession rights were often related to factors such as water, solar, and wind resources and road network changes, usually short - term disturbances. A relatively long - term change worth tracking was the electricity marketization of the energy sector. From the Q3 2025 quarterly report, the progress of electricity marketization transactions varied among projects. For example, the market - oriented electricity volume of the Hubei Jingtai project of Zhonghang Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT had reached 95%, while Huaxia Huadian Clean Energy REIT did not participate in electricity marketization transactions in 2025 [4]. - The cyclical sectors of industrial parks and warehousing and logistics continued to decline, with "trading price for volume" being common. The occupancy rate of industrial parks remained flat, and the average rent decreased by 3% month - on - month. The average occupancy rate of warehousing and logistics remained flat month - on - month, and the average rent decreased by 1%. Many bonds with declining performance mentioned the new supply in the surrounding areas. The signal of rent stabilization might not be seen until the primary market supply of warehousing and logistics slowed down. The revenue completion rates of industrial parks and warehousing and logistics were 89% and 92% respectively, ranking medium - low among all sectors [4]. - Before late January 2026, valuation - driven factors were limited, and it was a performance vacuum period. Supply and demand might become the main trading line. Since October, the fluctuations of stocks and bonds had converged, and REITs also showed a narrow - range oscillation. Currently, the difference between the cyclical IRR and the stable IRR was at the 59th percentile, with a relatively reasonable pricing. Before late January 2026, it was a performance vacuum period, and fundamentals had limited impact on the market. Therefore, supply and demand might be the main trading line in the next two months. In the short term, the supply - demand balance might be neutral to bearish. Currently, the primary market supply was stable, but financial investment institutions might sell unlocked bonds. Strategy suggestions: First, pay attention to the potential buying opportunities of high - quality targets brought by bond unlocking. Second, the primary market could allocate a large amount, and the price difference between the primary and secondary markets had enabled most primary subscriptions to achieve positive returns since this year. Third, in terms of structure, recommend the stable - performance sectors and the new infrastructure sectors with stable industry operations [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 REITs Overall - **Revenue Growth Rate**: After excluding the impact of expansion and fundraising, the Q3 2025 REITs revenue decreased by 4% year - on - year, with marginal stability. Structurally, the stable sectors maintained positive year - on - year growth, while the more cyclical industrial parks and warehousing and logistics still had negative growth. Affordable housing, consumption, and environmental protection had positive year - on - year growth, with the environmental protection sector showing marginal improvement. Industrial parks, warehousing and logistics, transportation, and energy still had negative year - on - year growth, but the growth rates of industrial parks and warehousing and logistics increased slightly [17]. - **Financial Completion Rate**: After excluding new bonds, the market - wide operating revenue completion rate was 95%. Sectors with high revenue completion rates were environmental protection, affordable housing, and consumption; those with low completion rates were municipal, water conservancy, and industrial parks, while the completion rates of other sectors were above 90%. After excluding new bonds, the market - wide distributable income completion rate was 98%. The distributable income completion rate of the energy sector still lagged behind the revenue completion rate, but most individual bonds improved compared to Q2 2025; the low distributable income completion rate of the municipal sector was in line with its revenue. The completion rates of other sectors were above 90% [22]. - **Market Reaction**: Since October, stocks, bonds, and REITs had all seen a convergence in volatility. Structurally, there was a lack of driving forces, and the spread between cyclical and stable sectors oscillated in a medium - level range. In terms of valuation, there were no obvious driving factors, and the impact of the quarterly report on the market was prominent. The rise and fall of REITs basically matched the performance. Sectors with high performance completion rates and high operating revenue growth rates, such as environmental protection, consumption, and affordable housing, had relatively high increases; industrial parks, warehousing and logistics, and the water conservancy sector with low revenue completion rates had relatively large declines. At the individual bond level, among the generally weak industrial parks and warehousing and logistics, individual bonds with smaller month - on - month revenue declines were generally more resistant to decline [26]. 3.2 By Sector - **Industrial Parks**: After excluding new bonds, the sector's revenue completion rate and distributable income completion rate were 89% and 92% respectively. The occupancy rate remained flat, and rent declines were common. Excluding the Guojun Lingang Industrial Park REIT affected by expansion and fundraising, 65% of industrial park REITs had a month - on - month rent decline, with an average decline of 3%. Regional competition and rent arrears were the main problems in the operation of industrial parks in Q3 2025 [36]. - **Warehousing and Logistics**: After excluding new bonds, the sector's revenue completion rate and distributable income completion rate were 92% and 96% respectively. The sector continued to trade price for volume, with the average occupancy rate remaining flat month - on - month and the average rent decreasing by 1% month - on - month. Many individual bonds with declining performance mentioned the new supply in the surrounding areas [41]. - **Affordable Housing**: The sector's revenue completion rate and distributable income completion rate were 101% and 103% respectively. The occupancy rates of underlying assets fluctuated, but the amplitude was mostly within 2 percentage points, showing little overall fluctuation [48]. - **Consumption**: The consumption sector's revenue increased by 4% year - on - year. After excluding new bonds, the sector's revenue completion rate and distributable income completion rate were 101% and 110% respectively. The revenue of Huaxia Shouchuang Outlet Mall REIT decreased by 14% month - on - month, possibly due to the off - peak season and new competitors. Yifangda Huawei Farmers' Market REIT diversified its business forms [53]. - **Data Centers**: As of the end of Q3 2025, all new infrastructure (data centers) were new bonds listed for less than a quarter, and the financial completion rates were all below 80%. The operation was stable, and there were no major events affecting the operation of underlying assets [58]. - **Transportation**: The transportation sector's revenue decreased by 3% year - on - year. The revenue and distributable income completion rates were both 98%, ranking medium among all sectors. The operating performance of Huatai Jiangsu Jiaokong REIT was outstanding, with a year - on - year increase of 30% and a marginal increase of 16 percentage points in the growth rate; Zhongjin Anhui Jiaokong also had a positive year - on - year growth rate [62]. - **Energy**: The Q3 2025 revenue growth rate was - 12%. The energy sector was affected by water, solar, and wind resources, with large single - quarter fluctuations and weak continuity. A relatively long - term change worth tracking was the electricity marketization of the energy sector, and the progress of electricity marketization transactions varied among projects. The distributable income completion rates of most projects increased by more than 10 percentage points compared to Q2 2025, which might be related to the concentrated arrival of renewable energy subsidies in the second half of the year and the factoring operations of fund managers [69]. - **Public Utilities**: The environmental protection sector's revenue met the target. The operating revenue completion rate of Guojun Jinan Heating was only 73%, possibly because heating fees were recognized during the heating season, and Q3 2025 was not the heating season [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The recovery signal of the fundamental situation still needs to be observed, the momentum factor remains bearish, and the market sentiment is rising from a low level. It is recommended to maintain an under - allocation of equity assets. In the short - term style, the small - cap style is expected to dominate in December, and the growth style will continue to dominate. It is recommended to focus on small - cap and growth styles. For fixed - income + funds, it is recommended to focus on relatively stable varieties, and for bond funds, focus on short - duration varieties [2][74]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 11 - month Review Stock Market - A - shares declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 1.67% and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 falling 6.24%. The Dow Jones Index rose 0.32%, and the Nasdaq Index fell 1.51%. Affected by concerns about the valuation of the US stock AI sector and the volatility of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, A - shares and Hong Kong stocks declined, and US stocks fluctuated [8][13]. Bond Market - US bond yields declined, with the 1 - year US bond yield dropping to 3.61% and the 10 - year US bond yield dropping to 4.02%. Domestic bond yields rose, with the 1 - year Treasury yield rising to 1.40% and the 10 - year Treasury yield rising to 1.84%, and the term spread widened. The decline in US bond yields was due to the volatility of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, while the rise in domestic bond yields was because the central bank's Treasury purchase volume was lower than expected [8][17]. Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index declined to 99.44, and the RMB appreciated. The on - shore exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB rose to 7.08, and the off - shore exchange rate rose to 7.07. The decline in the US dollar index was due to the continuous volatility of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the RMB appreciation was supported by the weakening of the US dollar and the strong domestic economic fundamentals [20]. Commodity Market - Crude oil prices fell to $63.2 per barrel. Domestic commodity prices rose slightly after fluctuations, and overseas commodity prices fell overall after rising first and then falling. Among domestic commodities, precious metals and grains led the gains, while coal, coking, steel, minerals, agricultural and sideline products, non - metallic building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy, and chemicals declined [25]. Fund Market - The performance of the fund market in November was poor. The issuance scale increased to 94.6 billion yuan, a 31% increase from the previous month. Structurally, the issuance scale of equity funds was 45.3 billion yuan, a 30% increase from the previous month, accounting for 48% of the total issuance. ETF funds had a net inflow of 100.9 billion yuan (excluding money funds), and LOF funds had a net outflow of 320 million yuan. Among them, equity - type ETF products had a net inflow of 32.3 billion yuan, and equity - type LOF products had a net outflow of 440 million yuan. Active equity funds increased their positions in dividend, value - potential, and prosperous styles and reduced their positions in quality styles [30][36][37]. 12 - month Outlook Overseas Environment - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut within the year fluctuated significantly, and the market expected the Fed to cut interest rates in December. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December increased to over 80%. US bond yields first rose and then fell, with an overall decline [43]. Domestic Environment - The private - sector financing growth rate continued to decline, and the inflation factor rebounded from a low level. It is recommended to maintain an under - allocation of equity assets as the economic recovery signal still needs to be observed, and the momentum factor remains bearish [47]. Trading Perspective - The stock - market odds were close to the three - year average, and the A - share market sentiment was rising from a low level but had not yet returned to the optimistic range [48][52]. Market Style - The growth - value style rotation model shows that the market factor, US bond yield, and style momentum are all favorable for growth, and the growth style will continue to dominate. The small - large - cap style rotation model shows that the current credit environment, monetary environment, and long - and short - term style momentum all recommend the small - cap style [59][64]. Hong Kong Stock Market - The number of macro - indicators bullish on Hong Kong stocks decreased compared with last month. The model recommends an under - allocation of Hong Kong stocks as the private - sector financing growth rate, Hong Kong dollar M2 growth rate, and Chinese sovereign CDS spread are bearish, although the US dollar index and south - bound funds are bullish [68]. Domestic Bond Market - Short - term liquidity remained in a tight balance, and long - term interest rates rose. It is recommended to focus on short - duration bond funds as short - term bonds have better opportunities than long - term bonds [71]. Fund Allocation Strategy - It is recommended to maintain an under - allocation of equity assets and focus on small - cap and growth styles. For fixed - income + funds, focus on relatively stable varieties, and for bond funds, focus on short - duration varieties. Recommended funds include Dongwu Mobile Internet (001323.OF, medium - high risk), CITIC Prudential Multi - Strategy (165531.OF, medium - high risk), Harvest New Consumption (001044.OF, medium - high risk), BOC Steady Income (380009.OF, medium risk), and Penghua Stable Short - Term Bond (007515.OF) [2][74].