Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the new materials sector [1]. Core Insights - The new materials sector has shown resilience, outperforming the broader market and the basic chemicals sector, with a weekly change of 2.11% compared to 1.85% for the basic chemicals index [11]. - The report highlights a recovery in prices for certain materials, with SAF Europe FOB prices increasing by 6.51% and oxygen prices rising by 0.24% [20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic production capabilities in response to international trade tensions, particularly in the new materials sector [10]. Industry Updates - The easing of US-China trade tensions has led to a replenishment window in trade, resulting in increased inquiries and rising prices for oil and chemical products [9]. - The report notes that the ROE-PB for the chemical industry has reached new lows, indicating a potential for recovery in the sector [9]. - The report suggests a focus on growth sectors, particularly in new materials that are critical for self-sufficiency and innovation [9][10]. Market Performance - The report provides data on the performance of various materials, indicating that lithium iron phosphate prices have decreased by 3.81%, while SAF China FOB prices fell by 2.94% [20]. - The report lists the top-performing new materials stocks, including Lingpai Technology and Suli Co., which have seen significant weekly gains [25]. Regulatory Developments - The report discusses the investigation into DuPont China by the State Administration for Market Regulation, which may benefit domestic production efforts [12]. - New safety regulations for electric vehicle batteries will be enforced starting July 1, 2026, which may drive innovation in battery materials [13]. Sector Trends - The report identifies key areas for investment within the new materials sector, including high-tech materials that are currently dominated by foreign companies and are in urgent need of domestic alternatives [17][18]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the renewable energy materials sector, particularly in hydrogen and battery technologies [15][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the media industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [40]. Core Insights - The media sector is currently experiencing a resurgence driven by AI applications and cultural confidence, with a notable focus on the commercialization of AI products and the IP (Intellectual Property) sector [5][6]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the media sector, with the Shenwan Media Index rising 2.59% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.71% [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in reshaping the industry landscape, particularly in public cloud services and consumer applications [5][6]. Market Performance Review - The Shenwan Media Index increased by 2.59% last week, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.88%, placing the media sector sixth among all sectors [8]. - The report notes that the media sector's performance is bolstered by the rise of AI applications and cultural confidence, with significant growth expected in the AI and IP sectors [5][6]. Industry Highlights - AI: The report expresses long-term optimism regarding AI applications, particularly in AI agents and toys, with significant revenue growth reported for Kuaishou's Keling AI, which achieved an annualized revenue run rate of over $100 million [5][6]. - Gaming: The report maintains a positive outlook on the gaming sector, citing improved competition and successful product launches, with specific companies recommended for investment [5][6]. - IP Derivatives: The report continues to favor the IP derivatives market, highlighting its role in driving industry growth and recommending key players in the sector [5][6]. - Internet: The report suggests focusing on core internet assets that are expected to benefit from AI advancements, particularly Alibaba and Tencent [5][6]. - Film: The report encourages active monitoring of the film market, especially with the upcoming summer releases, which are expected to catalyze box office performance [5][6]. - Publishing: The report highlights the educational publishing sector's potential and recommends companies that are actively engaging in AI education initiatives [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the energy sector, indicating a positive outlook despite geopolitical risks and supply concerns [1]. Core Insights - Oil prices have increased due to supply disruptions caused by wildfires in Canada, which have shut down approximately 350,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil production, representing about 7% of the country's oil output [11]. - The report highlights that geopolitical events, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict and the Russia-Ukraine situation, continue to support oil prices [11]. - The Brent crude oil price reached $67.47 per barrel, up 4.35% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil price was $63.35 per barrel, up 3.53% week-on-week [11]. - The report suggests that the demand for oil is expected to improve as tariff negotiations progress, which may alleviate investor concerns about demand [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - **Crude Oil**: Global oil and gas capital expenditures have declined significantly since the Paris Agreement in 2015, with a notable drop of nearly 122% from 2014 highs. This has led to cautious capital spending among major oil companies, limiting supply recovery in the short term [9][32]. - **Coal**: The report notes stable coal prices at ports, with the average price of Qinhuangdao port coal (Q5500) at 609.25 RMB per ton, down 0.29% week-on-week. The overall coal supply remains sufficient despite some production cuts [12][13]. - **Coke**: The report indicates that coke prices have remained stable, with a price of 1410 RMB per ton. However, demand from downstream steel mills is weak, leading to expectations of further price reductions [14][15]. - **Natural Gas**: The EU plans to ban Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2027, which has faced opposition from France and Belgium. The average price of NYMEX natural gas increased by 9.5% to $3.72 per million British thermal units [16][17]. - **Oil Services**: The oil service sector is expected to see a recovery in activity due to increased capital expenditures driven by high oil prices and supportive policies [18][19]. 2. Major Energy Price Changes - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index is reported at 76.13, down 2.11% week-on-week and down 24.46% year-on-year. The industry price percentile is at 20.34%, indicating a significant decline [20][22]. - The report summarizes that the largest price increases were seen in U.S. natural gas (+9.5%) and Brent crude oil (+4.3%), while the largest declines were in port coke (-3.4%) and Shanxi coke (-2.9%) [28][30].

证 券 研 究 报 告 证券行业周报（20250602-20250608） 推荐（维持） 稳定币：香港特区 vs 美国立法进程一览 美国关于稳定币的立法仍在推进中，预计需协调统一两项重要法案后才能成 为法律。2025 年 4 月 3 日美国众议院通过《稳定币透明与问责促进账本经济 法案》（简称 STABLE Act），首次以联邦立法形式规范"支付稳定币"的发行、 储备和监管。2025 年 5 月 20 日参议院通过《指导和建立美国稳定币创新的法 案》（简称 GENIUS Act），但仍需众议院审议和总统签署。GENIUS Act 通过建 立联邦和州分级监管框架，规范支付稳定币。在侧重点上：①STABLE Act 提 出采用"联邦-州"双轨监管，州监管机构需证明其规则与联邦"实质相似"， 同时更强调消费者保护，通过明确赎回权保障消费者权益；②GENIUS Act 则 更注重提升美元国际地位，强制稳定币与美元或美债挂钩，增强全球美元需求。 预计两项法案最终可能合并或协调，形成统一的稳定币监管框架。目前，它们 的核心差异仍需国会进一步协商。2025 年 6 月 5 日 Circle（股票代码：CRCL） 正式在纽约 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommendation," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [49]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of the U.S. government's executive order aimed at enhancing the leadership position of American drone systems and accelerating the eVTOL pilot programs [5][9]. - It highlights the potential for significant growth in the low-altitude economy, particularly in three application scenarios: new consumption in cultural tourism, manned (passenger) transport, and specialized uses [35][34]. - The report identifies key players in the industry, including manufacturers and supply chain participants, and suggests focusing on segments with high growth potential from 2025 to 2027 [36][34]. Industry Overview - The report notes that as of June 6, 2025, the total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 334.09 billion yuan, with 122 listed companies [2]. - The Huachuang Transportation Low Altitude 60 Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 3.8%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which has decreased by 1.6% [26][27]. U.S. Government Initiatives - The executive order signed by President Trump on June 6, 2025, aims to expand the operational scope of drones and accelerate the development and testing of drone technologies, including advanced air mobility [5][6]. - The establishment of eVTOL pilot programs is a key focus, with plans to select at least five pilot projects for applications in cargo transport and medical rescue [10][9]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that companies like Archer and Joby, despite not yet achieving type certification or mass production, have market valuations exceeding 40 billion yuan, reflecting strong market confidence in the future potential of eVTOL for air transportation [13][12]. - It suggests that both Chinese and American companies are well-positioned to dominate the global market for eVTOL, with China leading in technological advancements [13][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key segments within the low-altitude economy, including main manufacturers, supply chain participants, and new infrastructure developments [36][34]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Wan Feng Ao Wei (for general aviation and eVTOL), Green Energy Huichong (for drones), and various supply chain firms like Zongshen Power and Yingboer [36][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the technology sector in A-shares, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [35]. Core Views - The delivery of Broadcom's Tomahawk 6 (TH6) chip marks a significant breakthrough in AI infrastructure, addressing network bottlenecks and enhancing GPU utilization from 40% to over 90%, which is crucial for training large AI models [17][18]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the communication sector, which has outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 4.40 percentage points this week, with a 5.27% increase [9][11]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the domestic communication industry, particularly in light of the advancements in AI infrastructure and the increasing focus on high-performance technology [27][28]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The communication industry consists of 124 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 48,971.71 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 21,813.38 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the communication sector over the past month is 7.2%, 6 months is 2.2%, and 12 months is 30.5% [3]. Market Review - The communication sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 0.94%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which has decreased by 1.55% [9]. - The top five gainers in the communication sector this week include Huamai Technology (+33.74%), ST Zhongjia (+33.33%), and Taicheng Light (+30.31%) [14]. Broadcom's TH6 Chip Delivery - The TH6 chip has a switching capacity of 102.4 Tbps, doubling the current market standard and increasing throughput by six times compared to its predecessor [17]. - The chip's architecture allows for high-density, low-loss connections, significantly reducing latency and power consumption [18][19]. Broadcom's Q2 FY25 Financial Analysis - Broadcom reported a revenue of 15 billion USD for Q2 FY25, a 20% year-on-year increase, driven primarily by AI business growth [23]. - The semiconductor business generated 8.4 billion USD, with AI business revenue reaching 4.4 billion USD, indicating a strong growth outlook for the second half of the year [24]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom for operators; New Yisheng, Tianfu Communication, and Zhongji Xuchuang for optical modules; and Haige Communication for military and satellite communications [29].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved in the innovative drug sector. Core Insights - Enhertu combined with pertuzumab shows a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 40.7 months for HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer, significantly outperforming the standard THP therapy which has an mPFS of 26.9 months [12][14] - The report highlights the increasing sales of Enhertu, projected to reach $3.754 billion in 2024, indicating strong market potential for HER2-targeted therapies [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of ADC (antibody-drug conjugate) technology in enhancing treatment efficacy for various cancers, particularly in combination with immune checkpoint inhibitors [17] Summary by Sections Section 1: Innovative Drug Focus - The report reviews the latest advancements in innovative drugs, particularly focusing on HER2-positive breast cancer treatments and the performance of Enhertu in clinical trials [4][5] Section 2: Clinical Trial Data - The DESTINY-Breast09 trial results indicate that Enhertu combined with pertuzumab significantly reduces the risk of disease progression or death by 44% compared to THP [14] - The overall response rate (ORR) for Enhertu plus pertuzumab is reported at 85.1%, compared to 78.6% for THP, showcasing the superior efficacy of the combination therapy [12][14] Section 3: Market Dynamics - The report outlines the competitive landscape for HER2 ADCs, listing various drugs in different stages of development and their respective companies [18] - It notes that the ADC market is expected to expand significantly, with potential market growth of 100-200% for certain indications due to the integration of ADCs with existing therapies [17] Section 4: Recent Announcements - Recent announcements from companies like 恒瑞医药 and 康宁杰瑞 highlight ongoing clinical trials and new drug applications, indicating a vibrant pipeline in the innovative drug sector [33][34]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "【Bond Weekly Report】Certificate of Deposit Weekly Report (0602 - 0608): Funds Expected to Decline, Focus on Certificate of Deposit Configuration Value" [2] - Report Date: June 8, 2025 - Analysts: Zhou Guannan, Dong Yue, etc. - Related Research Reports: [21.16, 25.41, 29.73, 29.22] [10.56, 16.03, 20.43, 15.72] [13.41, 11.63, 9.69, 6.29] [6.28, 8.35, 1.92, 5.71] [10.62, 9.24] [2] Group 2: Supply Analysis - Supply Side: This week (June 2 - June 8), the net issuance of certificates of deposit was -2 to -4, and the spread changed by -2 to -7, etc. - Demand Side: The demand for certificates of deposit was 4.33, 0.00, 11.25, 0.00, etc., and the spread changed by -2 to -7, etc. - Overall Market: The overall market situation included various data such as 21.16, 25.41, etc. Group 3: Investment Suggestions - The report suggests paying attention to the configuration value of certificates of deposit and analyzing the changes in spreads and yields. - It also mentions the historical data and changes of spreads and yields, providing a reference for investment decisions.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for precious metals, indicating a bullish outlook due to various factors including U.S. tariff policies and inventory dynamics [1][2]. Core Views - The U.S. has announced an increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum, which has led to heightened risk aversion and a significant rise in precious metal prices. Gold and silver prices increased by 2.48% and 7.61% respectively compared to the previous week [7][8]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory continues to decrease, while aluminum rod inventory may begin to accumulate due to seasonal demand fluctuations [2][8]. - The report highlights the potential for silver to benefit from its dual role as an industrial metal in the renewable energy sector and as a financial safe haven [7][8]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that the U.S. tariff increase has triggered market concerns regarding trade policies for other metals, leading to price increases in precious metals [1][7]. - Copper inventories have shown mixed trends, with SHFE copper inventory at 107,400 tons, up by 1,613 tons week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 17,475 tons to 132,400 tons [2][8]. Precious Metals - The report recommends several companies in the precious metals sector, including Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zhongjin Gold, and Shandong Gold, among others [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for silver prices to rise due to its industrial applications and current market conditions [7][8]. Aluminum Industry - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 504,000 tons, while aluminum rod inventory saw a slight increase [7][8]. - The report discusses the establishment of a joint venture by Nanshan Aluminum in Indonesia for a caustic soda project, which is expected to enhance the company's supply chain resilience [8]. New Energy Metals and Minor Metals - The report indicates that tin prices have risen due to slow recovery in Myanmar's tin production and a decrease in social inventory, with national tin ingot social inventory at 8,998 tons, down by 257 tons week-on-week [3][8]. - The report recommends companies with growth potential in tin and tungsten sectors, such as Xingye Silver Tin and Zhangyuan Tungsten [8].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the weekly change rate of the total sentiment heat (MA2) for broad-based indices. The model selects the index with the highest heat change rate for investment, while staying in cash if the "Other" group has the highest rate [7][12][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the weekly heat change rate for each broad-based index (CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and "Other") 2. Smooth the weekly change rate using a 2-period moving average (MA2) 3. At the end of each week, invest in the index with the highest MA2 heat change rate. If the "Other" group has the highest rate, remain in cash [8][9][12] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates a systematic approach to capturing short-term sentiment-driven opportunities in broad-based indices [12][15] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy - **Annualized Return (2017-Present)**: 8.74% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.5% - **2025 YTD Return**: 10.6% [15] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Total Sentiment Heat - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aggregates the sentiment heat of individual stocks within a broader category (broad-based indices, industries, or concepts) to serve as a proxy for market sentiment [7] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Define the total sentiment heat for individual stocks as the sum of their browsing, watchlist, and click counts 2. Normalize the sentiment heat by dividing it by the total market heat on the same day 3. Multiply the normalized value by 10,000 to scale the indicator within the range [0, 10,000] 4. Aggregate the total sentiment heat of all constituent stocks within a specific category (e.g., broad-based indices, industries, or concepts) [7] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures market sentiment dynamics, particularly at the individual stock level, where mispricing due to limited attention is more pronounced [7] 2. Factor Name: Weekly Heat Change Rate (MA2) - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the weekly change rate of sentiment heat for a specific category, smoothed using a 2-period moving average (MA2) [7][19][27] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the weekly change rate of total sentiment heat for each category (e.g., broad-based indices, industries, or concepts) 2. Apply a 2-period moving average (MA2) to smooth the weekly change rate [19][27] - **Factor Evaluation**: The MA2 smoothing process enhances the stability of the factor, making it suitable for identifying short-term sentiment trends [19][27] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Total Sentiment Heat - **Indicator Range**: [0, 10,000] (normalized and scaled) [7] 2. Weekly Heat Change Rate (MA2) - **Broad-based Indices**: - CSI 500: +2.11% (highest weekly increase) - CSI 1000: -1.54% (lowest weekly decrease) [15] - **Industries (Shenwan Level 1)**: - Top 5 Positive Changes: Communication (+29.1%), Environmental Protection, Computer, Building Materials, Social Services - Top 5 Negative Changes: Automotive, Coal, Transportation, Utilities, Comprehensive (-35.2%) [26] - **Concepts**: - Top 5 Positive Changes: Football Concept (+152.7%), Military Restructuring (+128.7%), Dental Medical (+93.4%), Beer Concept (+90.7%), Digital Currency (+84.5%) [27][30] 3. Heat-based Concept Portfolios - **BOTTOM Portfolio**: - **Annualized Return**: 15.71% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 28.89% - **2025 YTD Return**: 22.3% [32]