Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive sector, particularly for complete vehicles and robotics, with an optimistic outlook for annual sales [2][3]. Core Insights - The automotive sector continues to show weak performance, influenced by previous news regarding price cuts and competition, alongside investor concerns about sales post-subsidy reductions in 2026. However, the report maintains that the risk of a severe price war this year is low and that sales expectations remain optimistic [2][3]. - Positive industry developments include Tesla's robot factory audit, Changan's management upgrade, and Li Auto's weekly sales exceeding 10,000 units, which support better stock performance for related companies [2][3]. Data Tracking - In April, wholesale passenger car sales reached 2.22 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11% but a month-on-month decrease of 10%. Retail sales were 1.59 million units, up 6% year-on-year but down 14% month-on-month [4][21]. - New energy vehicle manufacturers showed significant growth in May, with BYD delivering 382,476 units (up 15% year-on-year), and Li Auto achieving 40,856 units (up 16.7% year-on-year) [4][20]. - The average discount rate in late May rose to 7.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous period and 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [4][22]. Industry Research - Recommended stocks include Li Auto and Jianghuai Automobile, with a focus on companies like BAIC Blue Valley, SAIC Motor, Xpeng Motors, and Xiaomi Group. Li Auto is expected to see sales improvements and new model launches, while Xpeng is preparing for the launch of the G7 [6]. - In the components sector, the report recommends Top Group, Haoneng Co., and others, highlighting the growth potential in high-level autonomous driving technologies [6]. - The heavy truck segment is expected to continue its strong performance, with recommendations for Weichai Power and Sinotruk [6]. Market Performance - The automotive sector index decreased by 0.09% this week, ranking 23rd out of 29 sectors. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13% [8][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the steel industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, leading to a bottoming out of steel prices [2][3]. - The current demand situation suggests that inventory may soon reach a turning point, despite the ongoing weak demand [2]. - The industry is expected to maintain a bottoming and fluctuating price trend in the short term due to increased maintenance in steel mills, which may lead to supply contraction [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of June 6, the prices for five major steel products are reported as follows: rebar at 3,218 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,558 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,224 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,646 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,451 CNY/ton, with weekly changes of +0.05%, +0.08%, +0.10%, -0.12%, and -0.64% respectively [1][15]. - The total production of the five major products is 8.8038 million tons, a decrease of 0.47 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises is 2.418 million tons, down 0.11 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 90.65%, down 0.04 percentage points week-on-week [1]. - The operating rate for electric arc furnaces is 76.69%, down 1.09 percentage points week-on-week [1]. (b) Consumption Data - The total consumption of the five major steel products is 8.8217 million tons, a decrease of 316.2 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. - The apparent consumption of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and medium plate shows week-on-week changes of -196.5 thousand tons, -2.6 thousand tons, -60.1 thousand tons, +13.8 thousand tons, and -70.9 thousand tons respectively [1]. (c) Inventory Situation - The total steel inventory is 13.6381 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. - Social inventory decreased by 15.3 thousand tons to 9.3101 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 2.6 thousand tons to 4.3280 million tons [1]. (d) Profitability - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills is 2,362 CNY/ton, down 37 CNY/ton week-on-week [1]. - The gross profit per ton for rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil is +99 CNY/ton, +33 CNY/ton, and -62 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +9 CNY/ton, 0 CNY/ton, and +62 CNY/ton [1]. 3. Industry Policy and Outlook - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to optimize industrial layout and promote the exit of inefficient production capacity while increasing high-end capacity supply [3][4]. - The steel industry is expected to continue its profit recovery, with potential for greater elasticity in profits if supply-side adjustments are effectively implemented [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the technology sector in A-shares, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [35]. Core Insights - The delivery of Broadcom's Tomahawk 6 (TH6) switch chip marks a significant breakthrough in AI infrastructure, enhancing network capabilities and addressing bottlenecks in AI computing [17][19]. - The communication industry has shown strong performance, with a 5.27% increase in the index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.40 percentage points [9][11]. - Broadcom's Q2 FY25 financial results indicate a 20% year-on-year revenue growth, driven primarily by the strong performance of its AI business [23][24]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The communication industry comprises 124 stocks with a total market value of 48,971.71 billion and a circulating market value of 21,813.38 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 7.2%, 2.2%, and 30.5% respectively, while the relative performance is 5.5%, 4.7%, and 22.7% [3]. Market Review - The communication sector has outperformed both the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices this week, with notable stock performances including Huamai Technology (+33.74%) and ST Zhongjia (+33.33%) [6][14]. Broadcom TH6 Chip Delivery - The TH6 chip offers a switching capacity of 102.4 Tbps, doubling the current market standard and increasing throughput by six times compared to its predecessor [17][18]. Financial Analysis of Broadcom - Broadcom's Q2 FY25 revenue reached 15 billion USD, with AI business revenue at 4.4 billion USD, reflecting a 46% year-on-year increase [23][24]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom for operators, and New Yisheng, Tianfu Communication, and Zhongji Xuchuang for optical modules and chips [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [36]. Core Insights - The computer industry has entered a rebound phase, with significant developments in AI technology and strategic mergers, particularly the merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang, which is expected to create a leading player in the domestic computing power sector [7][18]. - The report highlights the acceleration of mergers and acquisitions in the industry, driven by policy support and the need for vertical integration in the "chip-server" sector [9][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming events in June, which are expected to catalyze the commercialization of AI technologies and boost the technology market [7][18]. Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoint - The computer index rose by 3.26% from June 3 to June 6, outperforming the ChiNext index by 0.94 percentage points, ranking 4th among 30 sectors [14]. - Key stocks that performed well include Huijin Co. (up 50.54%), Qingyun Technology-U (up 38.27%), and Zhongdian Xilong (up 32.72%) [7][14]. Market Performance Review - The report notes that the overall A-share market experienced a net outflow of 69.06 billion yuan, while the computer sector saw a minor net outflow of 15.6 million yuan during the same period [15]. Strategic Mergers and Acquisitions - The merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang is positioned as a significant event, potentially creating a "carrier-level" enterprise in the domestic computing power field, with a combined market value exceeding 400 billion yuan [18][19]. - The report outlines the supportive policies for mergers and acquisitions, including the "New National Nine Articles" and "Science and Technology Innovation Board Eight Articles," which encourage industry consolidation [9][24]. Investment Recommendations and Related Stocks - The report suggests focusing on key players in various segments, including: - Chips: Haiguang Information, Cambrian, Longxin Zhongke, and Jingjia Micro [26]. - Servers: China Great Wall, Zhongke Shuguang, Unisplendour, Inspur Information, and Digital China [26]. - Operating Systems: China Software, Chengmai Technology, and Kirin Software [26]. - Databases: Dameng Data, Haimass Data, and Tai Chi Software [26].

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Volume Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market timing based on trading volume dynamics[10][64] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a neutral stance for the short term[10][64] 2. Model Name: Low Volatility Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model assesses market timing by analyzing low volatility trends in the market[10][64] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a neutral stance for the short term[10][64] 3. Model Name: Institutional Feature Model (Dragon-Tiger List) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses institutional trading features from the Dragon-Tiger list to predict market movements[10][64] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bearish outlook for the short term[10][64] 4. Model Name: Feature Volume Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages specific volume features to predict market trends[10][64] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bearish outlook for the short term[10][64] 5. Model Name: Intelligent CSI 300 Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model applies intelligent algorithms to predict movements in the CSI 300 index[10][64] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bullish outlook for the short term[10][64] 6. Model Name: Intelligent CSI 500 Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model applies intelligent algorithms to predict movements in the CSI 500 index[10][64] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bearish outlook for the short term[10][64] 7. Model Name: Limit-Up/Down Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market timing based on the frequency of limit-up and limit-down events[11][65] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bullish outlook for the mid-term[11][65] 8. Model Name: Calendar Effect Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model incorporates calendar-based patterns to predict market movements[11][65] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a neutral stance for the mid-term[11][65] 9. Model Name: Long-Term Momentum Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates long-term market trends using momentum indicators[12][66] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a neutral stance across all broad-based indices for the long term[12][66] 10. Model Name: A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model integrates multiple signals to provide a comprehensive market timing prediction[13][67] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bearish outlook for the A-share market[13][67] 11. Model Name: A-Share Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on the CSI 2000 index, combining various timing signals[13][67] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a neutral stance for the A-share market[13][67] 12. Model Name: Turnover-to-Volatility Model (Hong Kong Market) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market timing in the Hong Kong market by analyzing turnover relative to volatility[14][68] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bullish outlook for the mid-term[14][68] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Volume Model - **Short-Term Signal**: Neutral[10][64] 2. Low Volatility Model - **Short-Term Signal**: Neutral[10][64] 3. Institutional Feature Model (Dragon-Tiger List) - **Short-Term Signal**: Bearish[10][64] 4. Feature Volume Model - **Short-Term Signal**: Bearish[10][64] 5. Intelligent CSI 300 Model - **Short-Term Signal**: Bullish[10][64] 6. Intelligent CSI 500 Model - **Short-Term Signal**: Bearish[10][64] 7. Limit-Up/Down Model - **Mid-Term Signal**: Bullish[11][65] 8. Calendar Effect Model - **Mid-Term Signal**: Neutral[11][65] 9. Long-Term Momentum Model - **Long-Term Signal**: Neutral across all broad-based indices[12][66] 10. A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model - **Comprehensive Signal**: Bearish[13][67] 11. A-Share Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model - **Comprehensive Signal**: Neutral[13][67] 12. Turnover-to-Volatility Model (Hong Kong Market) - **Mid-Term Signal**: Bullish[14][68]

行业研究 非银行金融 2025 年 06 月 07 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 金融资金面跟踪：量化周报（2025/06/02~2025/06/06） 推荐（维持） 成交量有所提升，基差总体有所收敛 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：刘潇伟 邮箱：liuxiaowei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525020001 上周量化私募总体正超额。上周样本量化私募收益及超额如下：1）300 增强策略周 /月/年初以来平均收益分别为-0.4%/+3%/+1.3%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为 +0.6%/+1%/+4.5%；2）500 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为+0.7%/+3.5%/+5.6%， 周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为+0.2%/+2.4%/+9.4%；3）A500 增强策略周/月/年初以来平 均收益分别为-0.4%/+3.1%/+8.9%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为+0.6%/+1.3%/+12.5%； 4）1000 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为 ...

Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding the expectation of 130,000[2] - Job growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and healthcare services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and finance (+13,000)[2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate from 62.6% to 62.4%[4] Wage Growth Insights - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-on-year growth was 3.9%, up from a revised 3.8%[3] - The average weekly hours worked remained at 34.3 hours, indicating stable labor income growth[3] - Wage growth is crucial for protecting consumer purchasing power, especially for low- and middle-income groups, amid inflation concerns[5] Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8%[3] - The anticipated number of rate cuts for the year decreased from 2.1 to 1.8, and the year-end policy rate expectation rose from 3.795% to 3.886%[3] - Following the report, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05% and the Nasdaq up 1.2%, indicating a rebound in risk appetite[3]

Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding the expectation of 130,000[2] - Job growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and healthcare services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and finance (+13,000) while other sectors experienced job losses[2][25] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate dropping from 62.6% to 62.4%[4][29] Wage Growth Insights - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-over-year growth was 3.9%, up from a revised 3.8%[3][34] - The increase in wages is crucial for protecting the purchasing power of low- and middle-income consumers amid inflation concerns[5][19] Market Reactions - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8%[3][39] - Following the employment report, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, Nasdaq up 1.2%, and S&P 500 up 1.03%[3][39] Employment Trends - The employment diffusion index fell to 50% for the month, indicating a decline in the breadth of job growth across sectors[4][24] - The total number of jobs added in the previous two months was revised down by 95,000, indicating a trend of slowing job growth[2][21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [21]. Core Insights - The insurance index rose by 1.03%, outperforming the market by 0.15 percentage points, with notable individual stock performances such as Xinhua (+5.94%) and Taiping (+5.64%) [2]. - China Ping An plans to issue HKD 11.765 billion in convertible bonds, with an initial conversion price of HKD 55.02 per share, aimed at supporting business development and capital needs [3][4]. - As of Q1 2025, Ping An's solvency ratios were 225% for comprehensive solvency and 189% for core solvency, indicating a strong capital position [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance sector showed a mixed performance with individual stocks varying significantly, where Xinhua and Taiping led the gains while Sunshine and Zhong An faced declines [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield was 1.65%, down by 2 basis points from the previous week [2]. Company Developments - China Taiping announced a new private equity fund with a target size of RMB 50 billion, focusing on state-owned enterprise reforms [3]. - Ping An Asset Management received regulatory approval to establish a private fund management company, targeting a first-phase fund size of RMB 30 billion [3]. Financial Metrics - As of June 3, 2025, the closing price of Ping An's H shares was HKD 46.45, with the proposed convertible bond's conversion price exceeding this by HKD 18.45, reflecting confidence in future stock price growth [5]. - The new business value (NBV) for Ping An increased by 35% year-on-year, with significant growth expected from the bancassurance channel [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the short term due to performance pressures but anticipates a recovery in the medium to long term as the industry adapts to interest rate changes and improves operational quality [5]. - Current price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for key companies are provided, with Ping An rated at 1.04 PB and a strong buy recommendation [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on the potential growth in the gout medication market and ongoing drug development [11][18]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is currently undervalued, with public funds showing low allocation to this sector. The report anticipates a recovery driven by macroeconomic factors and significant product launches in the industry by 2025 [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative drugs, particularly in the gout treatment space, highlighting the shift from quantity to quality in drug development [11][20]. - The report identifies several key companies and products to watch, including innovative drug developers and medical device manufacturers, suggesting a diversified investment approach [11][12][18]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes that the CITIC pharmaceutical index rose by 1.22%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.34 percentage points, ranking 16th among 30 sectors [8]. - The top-performing stocks in the pharmaceutical sector include Yiming Pharmaceutical and Wanbangde, while the worst performers include Longjin Retreat and Huasen Pharmaceutical [8]. Gout Treatment Market - The report highlights the significant market potential for gout medications, with a projected market size of approximately 1.821 billion yuan in 2024. The report notes that the market for febuxostat is expected to decline due to its inclusion in national procurement [20]. - The report outlines the two main therapeutic approaches for gout: inhibiting uric acid production and promoting uric acid excretion, with key drugs identified for each approach [20][21]. Innovative Drug Development - The report provides an overview of ongoing clinical trials for gout medications, particularly focusing on URAT1 inhibitors, which are currently the most promising targets in drug development [22][35]. - It highlights the progress of SHR4640, a URAT1 inhibitor developed by Hengrui Medicine, which has shown promising results in clinical trials and is expected to be the first domestic URAT1 inhibitor to be approved [26]. Medical Devices and Equipment - The report discusses the recovery of the medical device market, particularly imaging equipment, which is expected to see significant growth due to ongoing procurement processes and government subsidies [42]. - It emphasizes the importance of domestic manufacturers in the medical device sector, particularly in the context of increasing competition and the need for innovation [42][43]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong pipelines and innovative products, including those in the pharmaceutical and medical device sectors, to capitalize on the anticipated growth in the industry [11][12][41].