Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.80 CNY [1][10]. Core Views - The company is a leading enterprise in the Xinjiang explosives market, with a unique position as the only ammonium nitrate producer in the region. The report highlights the company's strong growth potential driven by the rising coal production in Xinjiang and the expected increase in explosive prices [7][9]. - The acquisition by Guangdong Hongda is expected to enhance production capacity and operational efficiency, providing significant growth opportunities for the company [7][9]. - The report forecasts profit expectations of 689 million CNY, 888 million CNY, and 1.08 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14x, 11x, and 9x [10][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 6,101 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 13.1%. However, growth is expected to resume in subsequent years with increases of 8.5%, 10.3%, and 9.8% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 668 million CNY in 2024, with a significant decline of 21.7%, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 3.1%, 28.8%, and 21.6% in the following years [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.62 CNY in 2024 to 1.01 CNY in 2027 [2]. Business Overview - The company has established a comprehensive industrial chain that includes upstream natural gas transportation, liquefaction, and deep processing, as well as downstream explosive products and blasting engineering services [18]. - The company’s explosive production capacity is expected to reach 119,500 tons by the end of 2024, with a utilization rate of 100% [35]. - The report emphasizes the scarcity of the company's ammonium nitrate production capacity, which is currently at 660,000 tons per year, with a utilization rate of approximately 68% [7][9]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a key player in the Xinjiang coal chemical industry, benefiting from the expected doubling of the local explosives market during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [12][24]. - The report notes that the company controls a significant portion of the explosive distribution in Northern Xinjiang, which positions it well to capitalize on the high demand for explosives in the region [17][35].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's government is aggressively lowering rice prices, aiming to reduce the price of 5 kg of rice to 2000 yen, which is 47% lower than the latest price published by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries[5] - As of May 30, the speculative net long position in yen has decreased to 164,000 contracts, an 8.4% drop from the peak in early May, marking five consecutive weeks of decline[10] - The US leading economic index fell to -4% in April, the lowest level since October of the previous year, indicating that the negative impact of tariffs may be less than expected[13] Group 2: Market Trends - Overseas investors net sold Japanese government bonds exceeding 1 trillion yen in May, totaling 1.6 trillion yen over four weeks[7][9] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index is at 5.8%, which is one standard deviation above the 16-year average, indicating a significant excess return compared to domestic 10-year government bonds[19] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds is 23.3, below the 16-year average, suggesting an increased attractiveness of stocks relative to fixed income assets[30] Group 3: Credit and Financing - As of May, the year-on-year growth rate of commercial bank loans in the US reached 3.9%, the highest since October 2023, supporting corporate output and potentially alleviating upward pressure on unemployment[16] - The 3-month USD/JPY basis swap was -25 basis points as of May 30, indicating a loosening of the offshore dollar financing environment following the reduction of tariff impacts[25]

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 化工行业新材料周报（20250526-20250601） AMD 收购硅光芯片公司；本周电子级氮气、 推荐（维持） PLA、SAF 欧洲 FOB 涨价 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：郑轶 邮箱：zhengyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522100004 证券分析师：王鲜俐 邮箱：wangxianli@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522080004 证券分析师：吴宇 邮箱：wuyu1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010002 证券分析师：申起昊 邮箱：shenqihao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030001 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -2.0% | 1.0% | 3.5% | | 相对表现 | -1.3% | 4.9% | -4.7% | -18% -6% 6% 19% 24/06 24/08 24/10 25/0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the media industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [49]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses a positive outlook on the IP toy sector, highlighting its long-term growth potential driven by diverse product categories. The recent success of the "Jinli Naju" limited edition merchandise from Alibaba Pictures during the Dragon Boat Festival is noted as a significant indicator of market interest [5][6]. - The media sector is currently experiencing a resurgence in AI applications, with a focus on cultural confidence stemming from popular IPs like "Nezha." The report anticipates a reshaping of the application landscape in 2023, particularly in public cloud services and B-end SaaS enterprises [5][6]. - The gaming market is highlighted as a key area of interest, with recommendations to focus on companies like Huatuo, Perfect World, and JiBit, driven by product cycles and deepening AI integration [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The media sector index rose by 1.74% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 1.08%, resulting in a relative outperformance of 2.82% [8]. - The total market capitalization of the media sector is approximately 1,569.05 billion yuan, with 140 listed companies [2]. Gaming Market - Tencent's games dominate the iOS sales rankings, with "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" leading the charts. New releases from other companies are also noted, indicating a competitive landscape [16][17]. Film Market - As of May 30, 2025, the film market has achieved a box office of 24.545 billion yuan, recovering approximately 98% of the box office compared to the same period in 2019. The total number of viewers is around 588 million, recovering about 86% [19][22]. - The top films during the week of May 26 to May 30 include "Mission: Impossible 8" and "Lilo & Stitch," with significant box office contributions [26]. Key Company Announcements - Meituan reported a revenue of 86.6 billion yuan for Q1 2025, exceeding market expectations by 18.1%, with a net profit of 10.95 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 46.2% [33]. - Kuaishou's Q1 2025 revenue reached 32.608 billion yuan, showing an 8.8% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 3.978 billion yuan [34].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment rating for the innovative drug sector, particularly highlighting the success of the combination therapy of Bemesumab and Anlotinib in treating NSCLC [8][11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant progress in the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) through innovative therapies, particularly the combination of immune checkpoint inhibitors and anti-angiogenic agents, which have shown improved progression-free survival (PFS) rates compared to traditional therapies [7][11]. - The CAMPASS trial demonstrated that the combination of Bemesumab and Anlotinib significantly extended the median PFS to 11.0 months compared to 7.1 months for the control group, marking a notable advancement in first-line treatment options for PD-L1 positive advanced NSCLC [11]. - The report also discusses the ongoing clinical trials and the potential for new drug approvals, indicating a robust pipeline for innovative therapies in the oncology sector [12][47]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus on Innovative Drugs - The report reviews the latest developments in innovative drugs, particularly in the context of NSCLC treatments and highlights the importance of combination therapies [2][3]. Section 2: Clinical Trial Results - The report details the results of the CAMPASS trial, which compared the efficacy of Bemesumab combined with Anlotinib against Pembrolizumab in treating advanced NSCLC, showcasing a significant improvement in PFS [11][12]. - It also covers the mid-term analysis of the TQB2450-III-12 trial, which further supports the efficacy of the Bemesumab and Anlotinib combination in squamous NSCLC [13]. Section 3: Market Developments - The report notes the recent approvals and submissions for new drug indications, reflecting a dynamic and rapidly evolving market for innovative cancer therapies [45][49]. - It highlights the performance of various biotech companies in the market, indicating significant fluctuations in stock prices and market capitalization [41][43].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive outlook for Marvell Technology, indicating strong growth potential driven by AI demand in the data center market [1][2]. Core Insights - Marvell Technology reported FY26Q1 revenue of $1.895 billion, representing a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4% and a year-over-year increase of 63%, surpassing the guidance midpoint of $1.875 billion [2][8]. - The data center market is a significant contributor, with FY26Q1 revenue of $1.44 billion, accounting for 76% of total revenue, driven by the rapid expansion of custom AI chip projects [3][14]. - The company expects FY26Q2 revenue to be approximately $2 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 57.11% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 5.54% [4][24]. Revenue Situation - FY26Q1 revenue breakdown includes: - Data Center Market: $1.44 billion (QoQ +5%, YoY +76%) - Enterprise Networking Market: $178 million (QoQ +4%, YoY +16%) - Carrier Infrastructure Market: $138 million (QoQ +31%, YoY +93%) - Consumer Market: $63 million (QoQ -29%, YoY +50%) - Automotive and Industrial Market: $76 million (QoQ -12%, YoY -2%) [3][19]. Gross Margin - The Non-GAAP gross margin for FY26Q1 was 59.8%, slightly down from the previous quarter and year, while the GAAP gross margin was 50.3% [4][9]. Inventory and Cash Flow - Inventory at the end of FY26Q1 was $1.07 billion, an increase of $42 million from the previous quarter [4][12]. - The company returned $52 million to shareholders through cash dividends and increased stock buybacks to $340 million in FY26Q1 [10]. FY26Q2 Guidance - For FY26Q2, Marvell expects revenue of around $2 billion, with Non-GAAP gross margin projected between 59% and 60% and GAAP gross margin between 50% and 51% [4][21]. - The company anticipates moderate single-digit percentage growth in the data center market and significant growth in the consumer market, expected to increase by 50% quarter-over-quarter [4][24].

证 券 研 究 报 告 基础化工行业周报（20250526-20250601） 赛轮轮胎印尼及墨西哥工厂首胎下线；本周 推荐（维持） 盐酸、敌草隆、氯化钾价格涨幅居前 行业研究 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 02 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：郑轶 邮箱：zhengyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522100004 证券分析师：陈俊新 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 489 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 42,141.11 | 4.26 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 37,352.82 | 4.75 | 相对指数表现 证券分析师：王鲜俐 邮箱：wangxianli@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522080004 证券分析师：吴宇 邮箱：wuyu1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010002 证券分 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 钢铁行业周报（20250526-20250530） 推荐（维持） 铁水产量持续下行，关注供给收缩节奏 行业观点：需求仍显韧性，后续关注淡季供需两端变化情况 事件一：截至 5 月 30 日，五大品种螺纹钢、线材、热轧、冷轧、中板价格分 别报收 3217 元/吨、3556 元/吨、3221 元/吨、3650 元/吨、3474 元/吨，周环比 分别变化-1.94%、-1.70%、-2.26%、-2.16%、-1.34%。本周五大品种产量 880.85 万吨，周环比上升 8.41 万吨。247 家钢铁企业日均铁水 241.91 万吨，周环比 下降 1.69 万吨，高炉产能利用率 90.69%，周环比下降 0.63 个百分点，高炉开 工率83.87%，周环比上升 0.18个百分点。短流程企业，电炉产能利用率 59.03%， 周环比下降 0.47 个百分点，电炉开工率 77.78%，周环比上升 0.6 个百分点。 库存方面，本周钢材总库存 1365.60 万吨，周环比下降 32.94 万吨。其中社会 库存环比下降 28.02 万吨至 932.54 万吨；钢厂库存环比下降 4.92 万吨至 433. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the photovoltaic industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [6][64]. Core Insights - The report indicates an overall decline in production for the photovoltaic industry in June, with price support expected to weaken. The production of polysilicon is projected to see a slight increase, while silicon wafer production is expected to decrease by approximately 4% [12][13]. - The demand for battery cells is weakening, leading to a further increase in the proportion of larger-sized battery cells. The report anticipates a 4% decrease in battery cell production in June [12][13]. - The component production is also expected to decline, with a forecasted 9% decrease in June due to the end of downstream rush installations [3][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Production and Price Trends - Polysilicon prices have slightly decreased, with N-type recycled material averaging 37,500 RMB/ton, down 2.85% month-on-month, and N-type granular silicon at 34,500 RMB/ton, down 4.17% [12]. - Silicon wafer prices remained stable, with an overall operating rate of about 53% for silicon wafer companies. A 4% decrease in silicon wafer production is expected in June [12]. - Battery cell prices have declined, with 182N and 210N battery cells facing profitability pressures, leading to a projected 4% decrease in production [12][13]. 2. Market Performance Review - The report notes a 1.94% decline in the comprehensive index this week, with the photovoltaic equipment sector down 2.25% [14][22]. - Among individual stocks, Changcheng Electric saw a significant increase of 39.22%, while BYD experienced a decline of 13.01% [17][19]. 3. Industry Valuation - As of May 30, the industry PE (TTM) for the photovoltaic sector is reported at 16x, with a valuation percentile of 9.4%, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to other sectors [25][30][35]. - The report highlights that the overall market capitalization of the photovoltaic industry is approximately 807.85 billion RMB, with 36 listed companies [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the reusable rocket technology and highlights the broad prospects for satellite applications [1] Core Insights - Breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology have been achieved, marking significant advancements in China's commercial space industry [1][29] - The satellite communication market is opening up to consumer applications, with major telecom companies launching devices that support direct satellite connectivity [9][40] - The report emphasizes the importance of resource integration and innovation in downstream applications within the commercial aerospace sector [46] Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoint - The computer index increased by 1.66% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.03% and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.40% [7][13] - Notable gains were observed in satellite navigation (+3.69%), commercial aerospace (+3.17%), and military information technology (+3.12%) [7][13] Market Performance (05.26-05.30) - The report notes a significant performance in individual stocks, with Zongheng Co. rising by 25.63% and Digital Government rising by 18.05% [18] - Conversely, companies like Bangyan Technology and Zhongke Star Map experienced declines of 16.09% and 10.26%, respectively [18] Valuation Analysis - The valuation of the low-altitude economy, aerospace equipment, and aviation equipment sectors is reported to be in the ranges of 96-98, 128-131, and 50-51 respectively, indicating high valuation levels compared to historical data [26] Breakthroughs in Rocket Recovery Technology - The successful test flight of the Yuanhang-1 rocket by Arrow元科技 marks a significant milestone in the development of large-scale reusable rockets [29] - The rocket is designed for 20 reuses and aims to support various market needs, including space tourism and deep space exploration [34] Opening of Consumer-Level Satellite Communication Market - The establishment of 5G satellite standards led by China is expected to revolutionize satellite communication, allowing direct connections from mobile devices to satellites [9][40] - As of April 2025, 30 devices supporting satellite connectivity have been launched by major telecom brands, indicating a shift towards consumer applications [9][40] Recent Highlights - The successful launch of the Tianwen-2 probe and the establishment of the Satellite Application Innovation Institute by China Aerospace Technology Group are significant developments in the aerospace sector [41][44] - The report highlights the potential of the drone logistics market, predicting a market size of approximately 300 billion yuan by 2024 [8][20] Investment Recommendations and Beneficiary Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in satellite manufacturing and rocket launches, such as China Satellite and Shanghai Hanhua [46] - It also highlights beneficiaries in satellite operations and applications, including China Satcom and Huace Navigation [46]