证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20250605 市场概况：今日转债增量上涨，估值环比抬升 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 0.17%、上证综指环比上涨 0.23%、深证成 指环比上涨 0.58%、创业板指环比上涨 1.17%、上证 50 指数环比上涨 0.05%、 中证 1000 指数环比上涨 0.72%。 市场风格：小盘成长相对占优。大盘成长环比上涨 0.42%、大盘价值环比下降 0.25%、中盘成长环比上涨 0.28%、中盘价值环比下降 0.50%、小盘成长环比 上涨 0.73%、小盘价值环比下降 0.33%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪升温。可转债市场成交额为 673.96 亿元，环比 增长 4.69%；万得全 A 总成交额为 13169.62 亿元，环比增长 11.85%；沪深两 市主力净流出 3.59 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 0.37bp 至 1.67%。 转债价格：转债中枢提升，高价券占比提升。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 119.78 元，环比昨日上升 0.22%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 163.72 元，环比 上升 2.22%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 111.02 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights that fixed income products dominate the market, with a significant preference for low-risk investment options among investors [10][18] - The issuance of new financial products has shown a trend towards "fixed income + strategy" products, while equity allocations remain cautious [18][31] - The insurance product market has seen a slight decline in new launches, but there is a notable increase in the proportion of participating insurance products compared to the previous year [41][42] Summary by Sections 1. Bank Wealth Management Products - During the period from May 19 to May 30, 2025, a total of 3,088 new wealth management products were launched, with closed-end net value products accounting for 72.38% [10] - Fixed income products made up 96.86% of new issuances, reflecting a strong market preference for low-risk investments [13][18] - The majority of new products (98.06%) had a duration of less than three years, indicating a trend towards shorter-term investments [13] 2. Fund Products - A total of 57 new public funds were established during the same period, with a total issuance scale of 354.10 billion units [25] - Equity funds led the issuance with 38 new funds totaling 167.58 billion yuan, representing 47.32% of the total [28] - The market is seeing a shift towards tool-based and thematic products, with a significant number of index funds being launched [32] 3. Insurance Products - The number of new life insurance products launched decreased slightly, with 18 new products introduced, including 6 participating insurance products [41] - The proportion of floating yield products in new annuity insurance products has increased to about 50% [42] - The report notes that the majority of products still adhere to the regulatory limits set for traditional, participating, and universal insurance products [46]

Group 1: Impact of Deposit Rate Cuts on Credit Bonds - The impact of deposit rate cuts on credit bond performance varies; if the cuts lead to a decline in policy rates, credit spreads typically widen, while if they precede rate cuts, spreads may narrow [1][9][10] - Historical analysis shows that after deposit rate cuts, the net buying power for credit bonds from funds and insurance is usually limited, indicating a weak immediate impact [1][15][9] - The short-term influence of deposit rate cuts on credit spreads is primarily driven by market sentiment and conditions rather than direct attribution to the event [1][15][9] Group 2: June Credit Bond Strategy - In June, the demand for credit bonds may weaken marginally, and the momentum for spread narrowing is expected to slow down due to seasonal trends [1][25][28] - The market is anticipated to remain volatile, with institutions focusing on high-yield bonds to potentially drive structural narrowing in credit spreads, although a trend compression is unlikely [1][25][28] - The liquidity environment is expected to be stable, with the central bank showing a strong willingness to support liquidity, which may help mitigate risks of significant capital outflows [1][28][26] Group 3: Sector-Specific Strategies - For urban investment bonds, focus on low-grade bonds within 3 years and medium to high-grade bonds in the 4-5 year range, particularly in regions with strong financial capabilities [2][3] - In the real estate sector, attention should be on AA-rated bonds from central and state-owned enterprises with maturities of 1-2 years, as lower-grade real estate bonds have shown significant spread compression [2][3] - For cyclical bonds, particularly coal and steel, a cautious approach is recommended, with a focus on high-grade issuers to avoid tail risks associated with declining market conditions [2][3]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The "Big and Beautiful Act" in the U.S. may exacerbate long-term debt risks, with national debt projected to rise to $36 trillion, potentially leading to a debt-to-GDP ratio of 134%-149% by 2035[3] - The probability of a U.S. economic recession is increasing, with defensive sectors outperforming cyclical sectors, showing a year-to-date increase of 10.7% in defensive sector valuations compared to cyclical sectors[4] - Emerging markets are outperforming developed markets, driven by a weaker dollar, which reduces the cost of holding emerging market assets and alleviates debt pressures[4] Group 2: Market Trends and Fund Manager Behavior - Global fund managers have increased their allocation to European stocks, with net overweight rising from 22% to 35%, the highest level since October 2017[5] - U.S. trade policy uncertainty is identified as a major risk for U.S. equities, with a close correlation between the Bloomberg U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the S&P 500 Index[5] - The implied volatility of USD/HKD risk reversal options has dropped to historically low levels, indicating a dominant bearish sentiment towards the HKD[6] Group 3: Valuation and Currency Movements - The forward P/E ratio premium of the "Seven Giants" in U.S. stocks has decreased to a historical low of 46%, with a forward P/E of 31 compared to 21 for the S&P 500 excluding these giants[8] - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, becoming the weakest among major Asian currencies, as the Bank of Japan shifts from being a net buyer to a net seller of Japanese government bonds[8] - Following the U.S.-China tariff suspension agreement, the offshore RMB exchange rate broke the 7.17 mark, reaching a new high for the year, driven by weakened dollar credibility[9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the animal health industry, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [79]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in vaccine approvals for circular, pseudorabies, and diarrhea vaccines, with notable year-on-year increases [7][8]. - The animal drug raw material market shows a continued strong performance in macrolide products, with price indices reflecting a structural differentiation among various products [52][53]. - The overall demand for animal health products is expected to recover, driven by improved profitability in the breeding sector and the introduction of new products [68][69]. Summary by Sections Vaccine Approvals - In April, major vaccine varieties for pigs showed substantial year-on-year growth, with circular vaccine up by 71.2%, pseudorabies vaccine by 73.3%, and diarrhea vaccine by 220% [7][8]. - Cumulative data from January to April indicates most vaccine types experienced significant growth, particularly in pig vaccines, with circular vaccine up by 52.3% and pseudorabies vaccine by 48.2% [8][9]. Raw Material Prices - As of the end of April, the Veterinary Pharmaceutical Index (VPI) was 69.2, reflecting a 5.6% increase from the previous month and a 13.4% increase year-on-year [52][53]. - Prices for macrolide products such as Tylosin, Tylvalosin, and Tilmicosin have shown strong performance, with increases of 10.1%, 17.6%, and 15.4% respectively compared to the end of March [53][54]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a stable upward trend in the demand for animal health products, supported by a robust breeding sector and ongoing product innovation [68][69]. - The competitive landscape is expected to lead to a dual recovery in performance and valuation for the sector, with a focus on larger companies that can leverage their financial strength and product diversity [69][70]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Reap Bio, Kexin Bio, and others, which are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated market recovery [68][70].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [5][66]. Core Insights - The AI sector is experiencing rapid advancements, with significant updates from companies like ByteDance and OpenAI, indicating a competitive landscape and innovation in agent technologies [11][12]. - The introduction of the XBench benchmarking tool by Sequoia China marks a shift towards comprehensive AI evaluation systems, moving beyond traditional performance metrics to assess capabilities across various scenarios [12][13]. - The launch of new features in applications such as Doubao and QQ Browser demonstrates the increasing integration of AI in everyday services, enhancing user interaction and decision-making processes [37][45]. Summary by Sections AI Insights - The report highlights multiple updates in the AI field, including the upgrade of OpenAI's Operator model from GPT-4o to o3, which enhances reasoning and interaction capabilities [11][50]. - Domestic developments include the launch of XBench by Sequoia China, which aims to provide a more scientific evaluation framework for AI capabilities [12][13]. Domestic Developments - Sequoia China's XBench tool introduces a dual-track evaluation system that assesses both theoretical limits and practical value of AI systems [14][15]. - Doubao's new video call feature allows real-time interaction with AI, marking a significant advancement in visual and auditory AI capabilities [37][38]. - QQ Browser's "AI Gaokao Tong" provides comprehensive support for students during the college entrance examination process, showcasing the potential of AI in education [45][46]. - The launch of Kunlun's Skywork Super Agents mobile app signifies a breakthrough in mobile office applications, enhancing productivity through AI integration [48][49]. International Developments - OpenAI's upgrade of the Operator model significantly improves its ability to handle complex tasks, indicating a trend towards more sophisticated AI applications [50][51]. - The report suggests that advancements in AI technology will continue to drive innovation and competition in the industry, with a focus on multi-modal integration and deep learning optimization [11][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on AI enterprise services and application scenarios, highlighting potential investment opportunities in various sectors such as office software, marketing, ERP, and education [53][54][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - The relationship between housing prices and consumption has changed significantly since 2018, with a notable weakening of correlation post-2018 [9][14] - The report identifies two layers of analysis regarding the relationship between housing prices and consumption: a shallow layer influenced by income and a deeper layer concerning the ability of housing prices to shift the demand curve [22][62] - The efficiency of the real estate sector's impact on economic growth has decreased since 2018, primarily due to the diminishing effectiveness of land finance and land fiscal policies [10][62] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The real estate sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market value of 1,111.02 billion and a circulating market value of 1,060.27 billion [4] Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -0.3%, -16.7%, and -4.7% respectively, while the relative performance is -2.1%, -14.7%, and -11.5% [5] Research Findings - Prior to 2018, housing prices were positively correlated with consumption, but this correlation has weakened significantly since then [9][14] - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector's early-cycle characteristics were driven by land finance and fiscal policies rather than the real estate industry chain itself [27][62] - After controlling for income, the report finds that rising housing prices tend to have a negative impact on consumption [47][62] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investment opportunities in residential development companies lie in two main areas: policy maneuvering and companies with competitive advantages in niche markets, such as Greentown China and China Resources Land [10][62] - It also highlights potential opportunities in commercial real estate companies, including Swire Properties and China Resources Vientiane Life, as well as in intermediary businesses with strong competitive advantages like Beike-W [10][62]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the computer industry, highlighting the ongoing advancements in AI technology and its applications [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant developments in AI technology showcased at various global tech conferences, indicating a new era of AI applications and opportunities [11][12]. - It notes the emergence of domestic AI products, marking the beginning of an "AI localization" trend in China, with companies like Kunlun Wanwei and Kingdee International leading the charge [45][49]. Summary by Sections Global Tech Conferences - Major tech events have focused on AI advancements, with companies like Microsoft and Google unveiling new AI tools and platforms [11]. - The Microsoft Build conference highlighted the integration of AI agents into their services, showcasing a shift towards autonomous AI capabilities [13][16]. - Google I/O introduced the upgraded Gemini model, enhancing AI's role in core business functions [20][21]. Overseas Developments - Microsoft showcased its "Agentic AI" strategy, emphasizing the development of AI agents capable of autonomous operations [13][19]. - Google announced the integration of AI agents into its search and assistant services, enhancing user interaction and functionality [20][22]. - Anthropic's Claude 4 model demonstrated significant advancements in programming capabilities, marking a shift from AI as a tool to a collaborative partner in software development [26][28]. Domestic Developments - Kunlun Wanwei launched the Skywork Super Agents, a multi-modal AI system that integrates various functionalities for document and content generation [45][46]. - Kingdee International introduced its five AI agents, enhancing enterprise management through intelligent data analysis and automation [49][50]. - The report highlights the "AIGO" methodology proposed by Kingdee for systematic AI transformation in enterprises, emphasizing a structured approach to AI integration [59][64]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on enterprise-level AI services and applications across various sectors, including finance, education, and healthcare, indicating a broad range of investment opportunities [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the electric vehicle industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [18]. Core Insights - In May 2025, new energy vehicle deliveries from various manufacturers totaled 311,797 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 53% and a month-on-month increase of 41%. Zeekr led the sales with 46,538 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 150% and a month-on-month increase of 239% [5]. - Cumulative deliveries of new energy vehicles from domestic manufacturers reached 1,143,627 units by May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 327% [5]. - The report highlights that battery components are the most valuable parts of electric vehicles, suggesting a focus on upstream supply chains due to stable delivery growth from new energy vehicle manufacturers [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The electric vehicle industry comprises 300 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 48,588.68 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 42,362.62 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is 2.5%, with a 6-month performance of -8.5% and a 12-month performance of 3.3%. The relative performance shows a 0.6% increase over the past month, a -6.5% decrease over 6 months, and a -3.5% decrease over 12 months [3]. Delivery Performance - The report details the delivery performance of various new energy vehicle manufacturers in May 2025, with significant year-on-year growth for brands like Xiaopeng (230%), Li Auto (17%), and others, indicating a robust market demand [5].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.80 CNY [1][10]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the Xinjiang explosives market and has a unique position as the only ammonium nitrate producer in the region, which provides a significant competitive advantage [7][9]. - The report anticipates sustained high prices for explosives due to the growth of the Xinjiang coal industry, with projections indicating a potential market for blasting services exceeding 10 billion CNY by 2030 [7][9]. - Following the acquisition by Guangdong Hongda, the company is expected to see significant capacity injections and operational efficiency improvements, enhancing its growth prospects [7][9][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 6,101 million CNY, 6,619 million CNY, 7,302 million CNY, and 8,019 million CNY respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of -13.1%, 8.5%, 10.3%, and 9.8% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 668 million CNY in 2024A, increasing to 1,080 million CNY by 2027E, with corresponding growth rates of -21.7%, 3.1%, 28.8%, and 21.6% [2]. - Earnings per share are expected to rise from 0.62 CNY in 2024A to 1.01 CNY in 2027E, with price-to-earnings ratios decreasing from 15x in 2024 to 9x in 2027 [2]. Business Overview - The company has established a comprehensive industrial chain that includes upstream natural gas transportation, liquefaction, and deep processing, as well as downstream explosive products and blasting engineering services [18][25]. - The company’s explosive production capacity is projected to reach 119,500 tons by the end of 2024, with a utilization rate of 100% [35]. - The company’s ammonium nitrate production capacity is 660,000 tons per year, with a current utilization rate of approximately 68% [7][25]. Market Position - The company controls a significant portion of the explosive distribution in Northern Xinjiang, holding stakes in 11 out of 25 distribution companies in the region [17]. - The report highlights the expected stability in the market structure for mixed explosives, with the company positioned to benefit from the high demand driven by the coal industry [7][9]. Growth Drivers - The anticipated injection of at least 150,000 tons of explosive capacity from Guangdong Hongda over the next three years is expected to significantly enhance the company's growth trajectory [7][10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for cost reductions in natural gas procurement, which could substantially increase profit margins [7][9].