行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 能源周报（20250526-20250601） OPEC+7 月维持增产幅度，本周油价下跌 风险提示：能源价格波动加大、海外地缘冲突加剧、下游需求不及预期 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 02 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：吴宇 邮箱：wuyu1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010002 证券分析师：陈俊新 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 489 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 42,141.11 | 4.26 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 37,352.82 | 4.75 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 2.1% | -4.0% | 2.5% | | 相对表现 | 0.3% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the unmanned logistics vehicle sector, highlighting the commercialization phase and cost reduction opportunities [4]. Core Insights - The launch of the Jiushi E6 unmanned logistics vehicle at a price of 19,800 yuan marks a significant reduction below 20,000 yuan, stimulating market enthusiasm and introducing a new era of intelligent delivery [1][12]. - The unmanned logistics vehicle industry has transitioned from "technological feasibility" to "commercialization," with over 100 cities granted road rights for commercial applications [2][12]. - The report emphasizes the economic advantages of unmanned logistics vehicles, with significant cost reductions in delivery operations, potentially lowering per-package costs by 50% [3][19]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus on Unmanned Vehicles - Jiushi's E6 model is priced at 19,800 yuan, introducing a subscription service for fully autonomous driving at 1,800 yuan per month, significantly lowering user entry barriers [1][12]. - The industry is witnessing a surge in orders and production capabilities, with Jiushi and New Stone both reporting substantial order backlogs and delivery milestones [2][16]. Section 2: Cost Model and Economic Viability - The operational data from New Stone indicates that a single unmanned vehicle can deliver 2,000 packages daily, with a cost reduction of 2-3 jiao per package when utilizing multiple vehicles [3][19]. - A cost comparison shows that the monthly operational cost of the Jiushi E6 is estimated to be below 3,000 yuan, significantly lower than traditional delivery vehicles [19][20]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that unmanned logistics vehicles are well-suited for last-mile delivery within a 10 km radius, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs for logistics companies [4][21]. - Continued recommendations for companies like SF Holding and attention to SF City, which is exploring collaborative delivery ecosystems with unmanned vehicles [4][21]. Section 4: Industry Data Tracking - Air passenger volume from May 30 to June 1 showed a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, while domestic ticket prices decreased by 4.6% [22][23]. - The shipping sector experienced a significant increase in the SCFI index by 31%, indicating a robust demand for shipping services [39][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for sales recovery and growth in 2025 [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry experienced a sales recovery in May, with expectations for strong terminal sales driven by increased marketing efforts from car manufacturers. The report forecasts a retail growth rate of 5.2% and a wholesale growth rate of 8.4% for the year, supported by stable economic expectations, policy initiatives, and new vehicle launches. Notably, the demand for high-end brands priced above 200,000 yuan is expected to recover, with a projected growth rate of 31% for new energy passenger vehicles, providing a solid foundation for the performance of both complete vehicles and parts manufacturers [2][3][4]. Data Tracking - In April, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.22 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 11% but a month-on-month decrease of 10%. The retail sales for the same month were 1.59 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6% and a month-on-month decline of 14%. The inventory increased by 197,000 units, which is a year-on-year increase of 1.9 times [5][10]. - In May, new energy vehicle deliveries from leading companies showed significant growth, with BYD delivering 380,000 units (up 15% year-on-year), Li Auto 40,856 units (up 16.7% year-on-year), and Xpeng 33,525 units (up 230.4% year-on-year) [22][27]. - The average discount rate in the industry rose to 7.8% in late May, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous period and 2.9 percentage points from the same period last year [5][23]. Industry News - As of May 30, 2025, the retail sales of passenger vehicles from May 1 to 25 reached 1.358 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 16% and a month-on-month increase of 9%. Cumulatively, retail sales for the year reached 8.23 million units, up 9% year-on-year [27]. - The China Automotive Dealers Association reported a decrease in the inventory warning index to 52.7%, indicating improved market conditions in the automotive circulation industry [27]. - The total import and export value of automotive goods in April 2025 was $23.09 billion, with exports amounting to $19.39 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [27].

行业研究 证券研究报 告 新疆周报（20250526-20250601） 推荐（维持） 宏大民爆迁址新疆乌鲁木齐 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 02 日 $$\frac{1}{4}\mathbb{E}\mathbb{F}\left(\frac{1}{2}\mathbb{E}\mathbb{F}\right)$$ 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：陈俊新 相关研究报告 《新疆周报（20250421-20250427）：国家生态 环境部受理国能准东 20 亿方煤制气项目环评》 2025-04-28 《 化 工 行 业 新 材 料 周 报 （20250421- 20250427）：25 年年底数千台 Optimus 有望入驻 工厂；台积电第二代 GAA 工艺 14A 首次曝光》 2025-04-28 《能源周报（20250421-20250427）：准东煤制 天然气管道一标段正式开工》 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | -- ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创金融|红利资产月报（2025 年 5 月） 5 月银行涨幅居前，股息策略仍具吸引力 行业研究 银行 2025 年 06 月 02 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：贾靖 邮箱：jiajing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040004 证券分析师：林宛慧 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524110001 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 联系人：陈海椰 邮箱：chenhaiye@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 42 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 141,851.64 | 14.34 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 98,289.06 | 12.51 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 6.2% | 16.7% | 30.8% | | ...

Report Title - "Bond Weekly Report: Certificate of Deposit Weekly Report (0526 - 0601): Cross - Half - Year Pressure is Controllable, Focus on Allocation Opportunities" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In June, pay attention to the roll - over pressure of certificates of deposit. Although the cross - half - year capital risk is limited, the supply - demand structure may weaken. Consider increasing allocation when the 1Y state - owned and joint - stock bank certificate of deposit pricing is above 1.7% [2][47] Summary by Directory Supply: Net Financing Declines, and Maturity Structure Lengthens - From May 26th to June 1st, the issuance scale of certificates of deposit was 66.95 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 1.677 billion yuan (compared with 2.49 billion yuan last week). The issuance proportion of state - owned banks increased from 42% to 55%, and that of joint - stock banks remained at 14%. The issuance proportion of 1Y certificates of deposit rose from 28% to 59%, and the weighted issuance maturity lengthened to 8.88 months (previously 6.20 months). From June 2nd to June 8th, the maturity scale decreased to 66.495 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 1.222 billion yuan [2][5] Demand: Wealth Management is the Main Buyer in the Secondary Market, and the Primary Market Subscription Rate Declines Slightly - In the secondary market, wealth management products were the main buyers, with a weekly net purchase of 80.935 billion yuan. The net purchase of wealth management outsourcing (other products) increased from 32.957 billion yuan to 85.483 billion yuan, and state - owned banks' net purchase increased from 9.739 billion yuan to 37.575 billion yuan. In the primary market, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) decreased slightly from about 93% to 91% [2][14] Valuation: Primary and Secondary Pricing Continues to Fluctuate at a High Level - In primary pricing, the pricing of joint - stock bank certificates of deposit fluctuated at a high level overall. The 1M pricing rose slightly to 1.67%, 3M, 6M, and 9M products increased by 0 - 2bp, and the 1Y product decreased by 1bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks narrowed by 1bp, at the 11% historical quantile. The 1Y credit spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 3.72bp to 13.00bp, and that between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 3.45bp to 10.00bp. In secondary yields, the 1M yield of AAA - rated certificates of deposit decreased significantly, and the rest continued to fluctuate. The 1Y - 3M term spread widened, at the 14% historical quantile [2] Comparison: Cross - Half - Year Capital Risk is Limited, Focus on Roll - Over Situation - The spread between certificates of deposit and funds increased slightly. The spread between the 1Y AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield and DR007:15DMA widened from 9.77bp to 11.98bp, and that with R007:15DMA rose from 7.07bp to 8.27bp. The spread between certificates of deposit and treasury bonds widened slightly to 24.98bp, remaining at about the 5% quantile; the spread with China Development Bank bonds narrowed by 1bp to 17.50bp, and the quantile decreased to 13%. The spread between AAA short - and medium - term notes and certificates of deposit changed from an inverted 1.08bp to 1.77bp, and the quantile rose to around 7% [35]

证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 行业研究 汽车 2025 年 06 月 02 日 推荐（维持） 5 月行业销量复苏，全年销量展望乐观 华创证券研究所 | 证券分析师：张程航 | 证券分析师：夏凉 | 证券分析师：李昊岚 | 联系人：张睿希 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电话：021-20572543 | 电话：021-20572532 | 邮箱：lihaolan@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：zhangruixi@hcyjs.com | | 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：xialiang@hcyjs.com | 执业编号：S0360524010003 | | | 执业编号：S0360519070003 | 执业编号：S0360522030001 | | | 5 月行业销量有所恢复，6 月车企加大年中冲刺营销力度，预计终端销售维持较好水平， 我们对全年销量依然乐观，预计全年零售增速 5.2%、批发增速 8.4%，后续随经济预期稳 定、政策发力、新车上市，销量水平有望维持在较好水平，尤其 20 万元以上高 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aluminum sector, indicating a positive outlook due to ongoing inventory depletion and price support for aluminum [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that domestic aluminum inventories continue to decrease, providing stable support for aluminum prices around 20,000 yuan per ton. The market is transitioning from peak to off-peak consumption, with current inventory levels being among the lowest in three years [8][9]. - The copper sector is also viewed positively, with recommendations for specific companies such as Zijin Mining, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, as global copper supply remains tight [2][9]. Industry Data Summary Aluminum Industry - As of May 29, domestic aluminum ingot inventory stands at 511,000 tons, down by 23,000 tons from the previous week, indicating a significant reduction in stock levels [8]. - The report notes that the aluminum rod inventory has also decreased, albeit at a slower pace, with current levels around 128,300 tons, which is still low compared to historical data [8]. Copper Industry - The report mentions that as of the latest data, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper inventory is 105,800 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7,120 tons, while the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventory decreased by 16,650 tons to 149,900 tons [2][9]. - The global visible copper inventory is reported at 472,000 tons, down by 12,656 tons from the previous week, indicating a tightening supply situation [2]. Tungsten and Rare Metals - The report indicates that tungsten prices continue to rise due to supply constraints, with domestic tungsten concentrate prices at 169,500 yuan per ton and APT prices at 248,000 yuan per ton [9]. - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from tungsten price elasticity and those involved in the strategic reassessment of rare metals [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth week of May, the impact of the rainy season continued to expand, and the traditional off - season effect became more prominent. Food prices remained stable, export freight rates increased due to port congestion, industrial product prices mostly declined, investment demand was weak, new home sales showed an end - of - month rush, and second - hand home sales momentum weakened [4][35]. - In the short term, the impact of the rainy season and the traditional off - season continued to be released. The May PMI showed a mild recovery, and the risk of repeated external tariff policies still existed, which supported the bond market. Attention should be paid to the export data in early June and the potential "expectation gap". In the future, observe the indicators of freight volume and freight rates in June's "rush to export" and the implementation of domestic policy - based financial tools and infrastructure high - frequency performance [4][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Inflation - related - Food prices basically remained stable. The average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 0.3% week - on - week, with the decline narrowing. Vegetable prices increased by 1.3% week - on - week, turning from a decline to an increase. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices was flat week - on - week, and the wholesale price index of vegetable basket products increased by 0.02% week - on - week [9]. (2) Import and Export - related - The congestion at US and European ports pushed up freight rates. The CCFI index increased by 0.9% week - on - week, and the SCFI index increased by 30.7% week - on - week. In the European route, the shipping demand was stable, and the spot market booking price increased. In the North American route, the "rush to export" continued to drive high shipping demand, with some ports congested and route freight rates rising by over 40%. From May 19th to May 25th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, with the year - on - year increase remaining the same as the previous week [12]. - The BDI index remained stable week - on - week, and the CDFI index increased for two consecutive weeks. The freight rates of different ship types in the international dry bulk shipping market showed a differentiated trend [12]. (3) Industry - related - The price of thermal coal stabilized with a narrowing decline. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 0.03% week - on - week. Although high - temperature weather in the north supported coal demand, heavy rainfall in the south squeezed thermal power. Some coal mines tightened supply at the end of the month, and the port coal price tended to be stable [16]. - The decline of rebar prices widened. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) decreased by 1.9% week - on - week. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 0.7% week - on - week. The supply of five major steel products increased, but the housing construction demand was weak, and the price declined due to high supply and slow inventory reduction [16]. - Copper prices turned from a decline to an increase. The average prices of Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 0.3% and 0.9% week - on - week respectively. Macro - favorable factors such as the extension of the EU tariff deadline and the possible suspension of tariff policies boosted market sentiment, but the high copper price restricted downstream procurement and limited the price increase [22]. - The spot price of glass fluctuated downward. Due to the approaching Dragon Boat Festival and the rainy season in the south, downstream enterprises had limited stocking willingness, and most manufacturers reduced prices to clear inventory [22]. (4) Investment - related - The decline of cement prices continued to widen. The weekly average of the national cement price index decreased by 2.0% week - on - week. Rainy weather in South and East China led to weak market demand and low enterprise shipments [26]. - The sales of new homes in 30 cities increased week - on - week, possibly due to the end - of - month rush effect. From May 23rd to May 29th, the transaction area of new homes increased by 14.5% week - on - week and decreased by 3.0% year - on - year, with the year - on - year decline narrowing. The transaction area of second - hand homes in 17 cities decreased by 7.7% week - on - week, and the year - on - year increase further narrowed, indicating a weakening momentum [27]. (5) Consumption - related - From May 1st to May 25th, the retail sales of passenger cars increased by 16% year - on - year (17% in April), and increased by 9% month - on - month. The wholesale sales of passenger cars increased by 17% year - on - year and decreased by 1% month - on - month [28]. - Crude oil prices continued to decline. As of Friday, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.4% and 1.2% week - on - week respectively. The planned accelerated production increase of 8 major OPEC + oil - producing countries and the weakening of crude oil demand expectations under tariff policy uncertainty continued to suppress oil prices [3][28].

证 券 研 究 报 告 机械行业周报（20250526-20250601） 5 月制造业 PMI 回升，工程机械资金面加速 推荐（维持） 好转 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 行业研究 机械 2025 年 06 月 02 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：范益民 电话：021-20572562 邮箱：fanyimin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523020001 证券分析师：丁祎 邮箱：dingyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523030001 证券分析师：胡明柱 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 汇川技术 | 65.78 | 2.12 | 2.55 | 3.01 | 31.06 | ...