金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【金工周报】（20260119-20260123） 短期择时模型以看多为主，后市或震荡向上 ❖ 本周回顾 本周市场涨多跌少，上证指数单周上涨 0.84%，创业板指单周下跌 0.34%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型部分宽基指数看多。特征龙虎榜机构模型中性。特征成交量 模型中性。智能算法沪深 300 模型看多，智能算法中证 500 模型看多。 中期：涨跌停模型中性。上下行收益差模型所有宽基指数看多。月历效应模型 中性。 长期：长期动量模型中性。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型看多。A 股综合国证 2000 模型中性。 港股模型： 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看多。恒生指数上下行收益差模型中性，上下行收益 差相似模型看多。 本周行业指数普遍上涨，涨幅前五的行业为：建材、石油石化、钢铁、有色金 属、基础化工，跌幅前五的行业为：银行、通信、食品饮料、非银行金融、计 算机。从资金流向角度来说，银行、非银行金融、有色金属、煤炭、建材主力 资金净流入居前，电子、通信、计算机、电力设备及新能源、国防军工主力资 金净流出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 94.53%，相较于上周增加了 13 个 b ...

Economic Data Review - The US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 51, indicating expansion, while the Q3 actual GDP annualized growth rate was finalized at 4.4%[1] - Japan's December export growth was below expectations at 5.1%, compared to the forecast of 6.1%[10] - The Eurozone's January ZEW Economic Sentiment Index increased to 40.8, and France's Manufacturing PMI reached a near four-year high of 51[10] US Economic Indicators - The WEI index for the US decreased to 2.34% from 2.48%[15] - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth marginally fell to 5.5% from 5.7%[17] - The 30-year mortgage rate in the US rose to 6.09% from 6.06% the previous week, while the MBA Market Composite Index increased by 14.1% to 397.2[21] Employment Trends - ADP's weekly job additions fell to 46,000, down from 70,000 the previous week[26] - Initial jobless claims in the US rose to 200,000 from 199,000 the prior week, while continuing claims decreased to 1.849 million[30] - The INDEED job vacancy index showed a slight decline, averaging 105.3, down 0.5% from the previous week[34] Price Movements - The RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index increased by 3.4% to 312.24, while US gasoline prices rose to $2.70 per gallon, up 1.3% from the previous week[36] Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US dropping to 0.812 from 0.848[43] - Offshore dollar liquidity showed improvement for the yen against the dollar, while the euro's liquidity worsened[46] - The 10-year US-EU bond yield spread narrowed to 132.3 basis points from 134.6 basis points[48]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 法国制造业 PMI 升至近四年新高——海外 周报第 124 期 ❖ 核心观点： 1、重要数据回顾：①美国 1 月标普全球制造业 PMI 回升，第三季度实际 GDP 环比折年率终值为 4.4%，ADP 周度新增就业人数下滑。②日本 12 月出口增 速不及预期。③欧元区 1 月 ZEW 经济景气指数回升，1 月制造业 PMI 初值 回升，法国制造业 PMI 升至近四年新高的 51。 2、美国基本面高频：①景气上行的有：地产（房贷申请数量继续回升）、物价 （大宗价格回升、美国汽油零售价回升）、就业（续请失业金回落）。②景气下 行的有：WEI 指数（经济景气下行）、消费（红皮书商业零售同比边际回落）、 就业（初请失业金人数回升）。 3、美国流动性高频：①美国和欧元区金融条件收紧。②离岸美元流动性：日 元兑美元流动性改善，欧元兑美元流动性恶化。 ❖ 一、过去一周重要数据回顾 美国经济活动指数回落。1 月 17 日当周，美国 WEI 指数升至 2.34%，上周为 2.4 。 上周为-0.03%。 ❖ 三、需求 1、美国红皮书商业零售同比增速边际回落。1 月 16 日当周 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry but emphasizes a positive outlook on various segments within the industry, particularly innovative drugs and medical devices [9][10]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is transitioning from a quantity-driven logic to a quality-driven logic, focusing on differentiated products and internationalization by 2025 [9]. - There is a notable shift in funding from active to passive medical funds, indicating a low allocation status in the pharmaceutical sector, which is expected to change as passive funds become a significant part of the investment landscape [16][17]. - The report outlines a structured approach to ETF investment in the pharmaceutical sector, emphasizing a dynamic combination of broad-based and targeted strategies to balance returns and risks [27]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index decreased by 0.38%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.24 percentage points, ranking 25th among 30 sectors [6]. - The top-performing stocks included *ST Changyao, Hualan Biological Engineering, and Kangzhong Medical, while the worst performers were Kaiyin Technology and Aidi Pharmaceutical [6]. Innovative Drugs - The report highlights a positive outlook for domestic innovative drugs, suggesting a focus on companies that can deliver profits, such as BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and others [9]. Medical Devices - The medical device sector is expected to see a recovery in bidding volumes for imaging equipment by 2025, with a focus on companies like Mindray and United Imaging [9]. - The home medical device market is also anticipated to grow due to supportive policies and accelerated international expansion [9]. Innovation Chain (CXO + Life Science Services) - The report indicates a potential recovery in overseas investment and financing, with domestic financing expected to stabilize, marking the beginning of a new wave of innovation [9]. Pharmaceutical Industry - The report suggests that the specialty API sector may see cost improvements, leading to a new growth cycle, with companies like Tonghua Dongbao and Huahai Pharmaceutical highlighted for their potential [9]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The report discusses the expected growth in the basic drug market and the impact of state-owned enterprise reforms on companies like Kunming Pharmaceutical and Kangyuan Pharmaceutical [11]. Pharmacy Sector - The report expresses optimism about the pharmacy sector due to the acceleration of prescription outflow and the optimization of competitive dynamics, recommending companies like YaoXing and YiFeng Pharmacy [11]. Medical Services - The report notes that anti-corruption measures and centralized procurement are improving the market environment for private medical services, with recommendations for companies like Huashan Medical and Aier Eye Hospital [11]. Blood Products - The report anticipates a favorable long-term growth path for the blood products industry, with companies like TianTan Biological and Boya Biological expected to benefit from increased demand and supply elasticity [11].

证券研究报 告 【债券周报】 工业略降温，二手房延续"开门红" ——每周高频跟踪 20260124 （1）动力煤：煤价由涨转跌。全国多地降温，居民用电需求增加，沿海电 厂日耗迅速攀升。但下游库存仍较为充裕，补库压力不明显。 （2）螺纹钢：螺纹钢价格由涨转跌。本周冬季需求淡季特征明显，户外施 工逐步停滞，螺纹钢表观需求下降，厂库、社库双增，下游需求季节性走 弱，钢厂利润修复缓。 （3）沥青：开工率环比下降。受降温降水天气影响，终端施工需求进一步 下滑，华南需求平稳，其他地区需求均下降至低位。 2、地产：（1）新房成交行情小幅降温。1 月 16 日-1 月 22 日，30 城新房成交 面积 116.4 万平方米，环比-10.55%，单周同比-38%，跌幅扩大。（2）二手房 成交环比继续增长。二手房成交面积环比+14.3%，环比保持上行，同比回正 至+14%，表现强势。 ❖ 消费相关：1 月中上旬乘用车零售同比-28% 1、汽车：1 月 1 日-28 日，乘用车市场零售 67.9 万辆，同比-28%，环比- 37%，去年春节偏早，节前集中购车影响形成高基数，导致 1 月同比偏低。 2、原油：油价涨幅扩大。布伦特原油 ...

Market Performance - Since October 2025, major indices have shown upward volatility, with the CSI 2000, CSI 500, and National CSI 2000 all achieving over 10% gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index has repeatedly surpassed 4000 points, reaching recent highs[1] - The top five performing sectors in Q4 2025 were non-ferrous metals (33.48%), national defense and military industry (28.59%), oil and petrochemicals (25.94%), basic chemicals (18.59%), and building materials (18.01%)[1] Fund Establishment and Positioning - A total of 100 new actively managed equity funds were established in Q4 2025, with a total share of 604.71 billion[2] - The average stock positions of various types of actively managed equity funds decreased compared to Q3 2025, with mixed equity funds averaging 88.69% (down 1.05%) and ordinary stock funds at 90.52% (down 0.52%)[3][31] Industry Distribution - The sectors with increased holdings of over 10 billion included non-ferrous metals, communication, basic chemicals, and non-bank financials, while sectors with decreased holdings included pharmaceuticals, computers, electronics, power equipment and new energy, and media[4] - The top five heavy-weight sectors for actively managed equity funds in Q4 were electronics (22.89%), communication (11.14%), power equipment and new energy (9.29%), pharmaceuticals (8.1%), and non-ferrous metals (8.09%) with notable increases in non-ferrous metals (up 2.08%) and communication[4][47] Individual Stock Analysis - The top five stocks with the largest increases in holdings were Zhongji Xuchuang, Dongshan Precision, China Ping An, Xinyi Technology, and Shengyi Technology[5] - The largest reductions in holdings were seen in Industrial Fulian, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Ningde Times, Luxshare Precision, and Focus Media[5] Billion Fund Holdings - As of January 22, 2026, there were 31 funds with over 10 billion in assets, a decrease of 3 from the previous quarter, with significant changes in holdings for companies like Shengyi Technology and Zhongji Xuchuang[6] Hong Kong Stock Holdings - The top three Hong Kong stocks held by funds in Q4 2025 were Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, and SMIC, each with a market value exceeding 18 billion, but all saw reductions of over 10 billion compared to the previous quarter[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Taiping (00966.HK) with a target price of HKD 29.6 [9]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the fiscal year 2025 is expected to increase by 215% to 225%, translating to a profit range of HKD 26.6 billion to HKD 27.4 billion [2][8]. - The significant growth is attributed to improved investment performance and a one-time impact from new corporate income tax policies in the insurance sector [8]. - The report anticipates that the company's earnings will continue to show resilience due to active equity markets, although growth may face pressure in the second half of 2026 due to base effects [9]. Financial Summary - **Key Financial Metrics**: - Insurance service performance (in million HKD): - 2024A: 22,024 - 2025E: 23,369 (growth of 6.1%) - 2026E: 24,263 (growth of 3.8%) - 2027E: 25,325 (growth of 4.4%) [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million HKD): - 2024A: 8,432 - 2025E: 26,828 (growth of 218.2%) - 2026E: 16,538 (decline of 38.4%) - 2027E: 17,934 (growth of 8.4%) [4] - Earnings per share (in HKD): - 2024A: 2.35 - 2025E: 7.46 - 2026E: 4.60 - 2027E: 4.99 [4] - Price-to-earnings ratio: - 2025E: 3.1 [4] - Price-to-book ratio: - 2025E: 0.8 [4] Market Performance - The report highlights that the company's stock has shown significant performance compared to the Hang Seng Index over the past 12 months, with a notable increase of 723% to 758% expected in the second half of 2025 [8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 评论： 一、对于新保险合同准则执行年度为 2025 年度及之前的企业，自 2026 年起以 新保险合同准则为基础，作纳税调整并计算缴纳企业所得税。 企业首次执行《保险合同准则》产生的留存收益累积影响数，按税前金额计入 2026 年度应纳税所得额，或自 2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税 所得额。两种方法可自主选择，一经选择不得更改。 首次执行年度至 2025 年度期间，企业执行《保险合同准则》为基础计算的应 纳税所得额与已申报的应纳税所得额的差额，计入 2026 年度应纳税所得额， 或自 2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税所得额。 二、对于 2026 年度及以后年度为首次执行年度的企业，在计算缴纳企业所得 税时，自首次执行年度起以《保险合同准则》为基础，按照企业所得税现行规 定作纳税调整并计算缴纳企业所得税。 中国太平（00966.HK）2025 年报预增点评 推荐（维持） 业绩增长两倍，主因投资与税收 目标价：29.6 港元 事项： ❖ 根据公司初步估算，本集团 2025 年度股东应占溢利预计同比增加 215%至 225%。 企业因执行《保险合同准则》产生的留 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that in Q4 2025, the issuance of actively managed equity funds continued to recover, with a total issuance of 562 billion, which is stable compared to Q3 [1][10] - The report highlights a significant decrease in the redemption of existing funds, dropping to 126.1 billion from 218.4 billion in Q3, reflecting improved market conditions and risk appetite [1][10] - The report notes that the market showed a volatile trend in Q4, influenced by factors such as improved overseas liquidity, the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan," and the political bureau meeting [1][10] Group 2 - The report suggests an increase in allocation to cyclical sectors and financial real estate, with the proportion of cyclical stocks rising from 11.9% in Q3 to 15.4% in Q4, and financial real estate increasing from 3.9% to 4.5% [2][22] - Conversely, the report indicates a reduction in allocation to consumer sectors and TMT, with consumer stock allocation decreasing from 20.1% to 18.0% and TMT from 39.8% to 38.0% [2][22] Group 3 - The report identifies that in Q4 2025, the top five industries for increased allocation were non-ferrous metals (up 2.1 percentage points), communication (up 1.8 percentage points), non-bank financials (up 0.9 percentage points), chemicals (up 0.8 percentage points), and machinery (up 0.7 percentage points) [3][30] - The report also highlights that the top five industries for reduced allocation were electronics (down 1.6 percentage points), pharmaceuticals (down 1.6 percentage points), media (down 1.2 percentage points), new energy (down 0.9 percentage points), and computers (down 0.8 percentage points) [3][30] Group 4 - The report states that the concentration of holdings in the top three industries decreased to 46.5% in Q4, down 1.1 percentage points from Q3, while the top five industries accounted for 62.7%, down 0.2 percentage points [4][37] - The report mentions that there were six changes in the top 20 holdings compared to Q3, with new entries including China Ping An, Shengyi Technology, and Haiguang Information, while exits included Yiwei Lithium Energy, Shenghong Technology, and Shenzhen South Circuit [4][40]

- In the past two years, broad-based ETFs have experienced significant net outflows, with a cumulative net outflow of 534.63 billion yuan since 2026, including 267.32 billion yuan from CSI 300, 71.58 billion yuan from CSI 1000, 45.67 billion yuan from STAR 50, 49.11 billion yuan from SSE 50, and 33.39 billion yuan from ChiNext Index[3] - Since 2024, there have been four major net inflows of medium- and long-term funds through broad-based ETFs, mainly into CSI 300 (current retained market value of approximately 608.8 billion yuan), CSI 1000 (approximately 163.4 billion yuan), CSI 500 (approximately 137.7 billion yuan), and ChiNext Index (approximately 105.8 billion yuan)[3] - Medium- and long-term funds in Q3 2025 were heavily invested in banks (37% of market value), non-bank financials (19%), food and beverage (5%), construction (4%), and utilities (4%)[3] - The report provides detailed statistics on the net inflows and outflows of major broad-based ETFs, including CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, SSE 50, ChiNext Index, and others, with specific figures for each ETF[5] - The report includes a table estimating the current cost lines for major ETFs, showing the buy and sell cost lines for each round of net inflows and outflows, along with the retained market value and the current index price[7] - The report lists the top holdings of medium- and long-term funds in Q3 2025, including Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Ping An Insurance, Bank of China, and others, with specific market values and percentages[9] - The report notes that the data comes from periodic reports disclosed by listed companies, fund reports, and other sources, and that medium- and long-term funds include entities such as Central Huijin, China Securities Finance, and others[10]