稳定币与安全资产价格——海外周报第 93 期 ❖ 核心观点： 随着稳定币规模的迅速增长以及香港《稳定币条例》、美国《GENIUS 法案》 的发布，稳定币成为市场关注的热点。如何理解稳定币对短期美国国债的影 响？我们系统梳理了 2025 年 5 月 28 日国际清算银行发布的工作论文《稳定 币与安全资产价格》的主要内容，论文发现：1）稳定币资金流动对短期国债 收益率有显著影响，35 亿美元的稳定币净流入会导致 3 个月期国库券收益率 在 10 天内下降约 2-2.5 个基点；2）资金流出对收益率的推升作用比流入的压 低作用更大，35 亿美元的流出会导致收益率上升约 6-8 个基点；3）稳定币资 金流动对美债期限结构影响有限，稳定币流动的影响主要集中在短端（3 个月 期），而对 2 年期和 5 年期收益率几乎没有可测量的溢出效应；4）如果稳定 币市场持续快速扩张，其资金流动可能显著压低短期国债收益率，从而可能干 扰美联储通过市场利率传导货币政策的有效性。 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 ❖ 一、稳定币与安全资产价格。 （一）引言 美元稳定币经历了显著的增长，并有望重塑金融市场。截至 2025 年 3 月 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 机械行业周报（20250602-20250608） 推荐（维持） 石油炼化需求向好，重视海外设备需求 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 汇川技术 | 64.11 | 2.12 | 2.55 | 3.01 | 30.27 | 25.17 | 21.29 | 5.25 | 强推 | | 法兰泰克 | 9.72 | 0.66 | 0.84 | 1.04 | 14.72 | 11.53 | 9.35 | 2.00 | 强推 | | 信捷电气 | 56.90 | 1.83 | 2.30 | 2.78 | 31.05 | 24.77 | 20.46 | 3.59 | 强推 | | 欧科亿 | 17.86 | 0.71 | 1.02 | 1.2 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 风电行业月度数据跟踪报告 5 月福建/河北共 1.2GW 海风项目海缆开标 ❑ 招标量：1-5 月风机招标 40.2GW，同比+14.5% ❑ 中标量：1-5 月风电中标 39.5GW，同比+8.8% 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 东方电缆 | 47.68 | 2.29 | 2.94 | 3.65 | 20.81 | 16.24 | 13.07 | 4.06 | 推荐 | | 中天科技 | 13.29 | 1.04 | 1.17 | 1.29 | 12.78 | 11.37 | 10.33 | 1.19 | 推荐 | | 明阳智能 | 10.18 | 0.71 | 0.94 | 1.16 | 14.32 | 10.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the new materials sector [1]. Core Insights - The new materials sector has shown resilience, outperforming the broader market and the basic chemicals sector, with a weekly change of 2.11% compared to 1.85% for the basic chemicals index [11]. - The report highlights a recovery in prices for certain materials, with SAF Europe FOB prices increasing by 6.51% and oxygen prices rising by 0.24% [20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic production capabilities in response to international trade tensions, particularly in the new materials sector [10]. Industry Updates - The easing of US-China trade tensions has led to a replenishment window in trade, resulting in increased inquiries and rising prices for oil and chemical products [9]. - The report notes that the ROE-PB for the chemical industry has reached new lows, indicating a potential for recovery in the sector [9]. - The report suggests a focus on growth sectors, particularly in new materials that are critical for self-sufficiency and innovation [9][10]. Market Performance - The report provides data on the performance of various materials, indicating that lithium iron phosphate prices have decreased by 3.81%, while SAF China FOB prices fell by 2.94% [20]. - The report lists the top-performing new materials stocks, including Lingpai Technology and Suli Co., which have seen significant weekly gains [25]. Regulatory Developments - The report discusses the investigation into DuPont China by the State Administration for Market Regulation, which may benefit domestic production efforts [12]. - New safety regulations for electric vehicle batteries will be enforced starting July 1, 2026, which may drive innovation in battery materials [13]. Sector Trends - The report identifies key areas for investment within the new materials sector, including high-tech materials that are currently dominated by foreign companies and are in urgent need of domestic alternatives [17][18]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the renewable energy materials sector, particularly in hydrogen and battery technologies [15][16].

证 券 研 究 报 告 传媒行业周观察（20250602-20250606） 可灵 AI 商业化提速，长线看好 IP 情绪消费 推荐（维持） 赛道 【市场观点】 行业研究 传媒 2025 年 06 月 08 日 邮箱：zhaohainan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070016 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 140 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 16,029.50 | 1.60 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 14,573.62 | 1.83 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 1.7% | -5.0% | 38.3% | | 相对表现 | -0.0% | -2.5% | 30.5% | -11% 9% 30% 50% 24/06 24/08 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/06 2024-06-11~2025-06-06 传媒 沪深300 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：刘欣 电话：010-63214660 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 能源周报（20250602-20250608） 加拿大野火威胁供应，地缘政治风险反复， 推荐（维持） 本周油价上涨 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 08 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 -17% -4% 8% 20% 24/06 24/08 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/06 2024-06-11~2025-06-06 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究报告 《基础化工行业周报（20250526-20250601）：赛轮 轮胎印尼及墨西哥工厂首胎下线；本周盐酸、敌 草隆、氯化钾价格涨幅居前》 证券分析师：吴宇 邮箱：wuyu1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010002 证券分析师：陈俊新 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 489 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 43,183.76 | 4.31 | ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 证券行业周报（20250602-20250608） 推荐（维持） 稳定币：香港特区 vs 美国立法进程一览 美国关于稳定币的立法仍在推进中，预计需协调统一两项重要法案后才能成 为法律。2025 年 4 月 3 日美国众议院通过《稳定币透明与问责促进账本经济 法案》（简称 STABLE Act），首次以联邦立法形式规范"支付稳定币"的发行、 储备和监管。2025 年 5 月 20 日参议院通过《指导和建立美国稳定币创新的法 案》（简称 GENIUS Act），但仍需众议院审议和总统签署。GENIUS Act 通过建 立联邦和州分级监管框架，规范支付稳定币。在侧重点上：①STABLE Act 提 出采用"联邦-州"双轨监管，州监管机构需证明其规则与联邦"实质相似"， 同时更强调消费者保护，通过明确赎回权保障消费者权益；②GENIUS Act 则 更注重提升美元国际地位，强制稳定币与美元或美债挂钩，增强全球美元需求。 预计两项法案最终可能合并或协调，形成统一的稳定币监管框架。目前，它们 的核心差异仍需国会进一步协商。2025 年 6 月 5 日 Circle（股票代码：CRCL） 正式在纽约 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommendation," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [49]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of the U.S. government's executive order aimed at enhancing the leadership position of American drone systems and accelerating the eVTOL pilot programs [5][9]. - It highlights the potential for significant growth in the low-altitude economy, particularly in three application scenarios: new consumption in cultural tourism, manned (passenger) transport, and specialized uses [35][34]. - The report identifies key players in the industry, including manufacturers and supply chain participants, and suggests focusing on segments with high growth potential from 2025 to 2027 [36][34]. Industry Overview - The report notes that as of June 6, 2025, the total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 334.09 billion yuan, with 122 listed companies [2]. - The Huachuang Transportation Low Altitude 60 Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 3.8%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which has decreased by 1.6% [26][27]. U.S. Government Initiatives - The executive order signed by President Trump on June 6, 2025, aims to expand the operational scope of drones and accelerate the development and testing of drone technologies, including advanced air mobility [5][6]. - The establishment of eVTOL pilot programs is a key focus, with plans to select at least five pilot projects for applications in cargo transport and medical rescue [10][9]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that companies like Archer and Joby, despite not yet achieving type certification or mass production, have market valuations exceeding 40 billion yuan, reflecting strong market confidence in the future potential of eVTOL for air transportation [13][12]. - It suggests that both Chinese and American companies are well-positioned to dominate the global market for eVTOL, with China leading in technological advancements [13][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key segments within the low-altitude economy, including main manufacturers, supply chain participants, and new infrastructure developments [36][34]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Wan Feng Ao Wei (for general aviation and eVTOL), Green Energy Huichong (for drones), and various supply chain firms like Zongshen Power and Yingboer [36][34].

证 券 研 究 报 告 通信行业周报（20250602-20250608） 博通 TH6 芯片正式交付；看好 A 股科技板块价值 推荐（维持） 证券分析师：欧子兴 邮箱：ouzixing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080007 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 124 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 48,971.71 | 4.88 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 21,813.38 | 2.74 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 7.2% | 2.2% | 30.5% | | 相对表现 | 5.5% | 4.7% | 22.7% | 回归 行业研究 通信 2025 年 06 月 08 日 华创证券研究所 -12% 7% 26% 45% 24/06 24/08 24/10 25/01 25/03 25/06 2024-06-07~2025-06-06 通信 沪深300 相关研究报告 《通信行业周报（20250526-2 ...

Enhertu联合帕妥珠一线治疗HER2+乳腺癌 mPFS超3年 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 2025-06-08 证券分析师刘浩 执业编号：S0360520120002 邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com 联系人段江瑶 邮箱：duanjiangyao@hcyjs.com 证券研究报告 创新药周报20250608： 本周创新药重点关注 国内创新药回顾 02 全球新药速递 03 01 HER2+乳腺癌 证券研究报告 ┃ Enhertu销售额（亿美元） @2021 华创版权所有 第一部分 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 资料来源：SEER数据库，医药魔方，阿斯利康官网，华创证券 3 ┃ 乳腺癌5年生存率（2015-2021） ◼ 乳腺癌是全球第二大常见癌症，也是癌症相关死亡的主要原因之一。2022 年，全球确诊的乳腺癌病例超过200万例， ...