Economic Data Review - The U.S. January core PCE year-on-year increased to the highest level since March 2024, rising by 3.1%[2] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March hit a three-month low at 55.5, down from 56.6 in February[10] - The JOLTS job openings in January surged by 396,000 to 6.946 million, exceeding expectations of 6.75 million[10] Employment Trends - The ADP weekly employment report showed a stable increase of 62,000 jobs over the past four weeks, unchanged from the previous week[26] - Initial jobless claims fell to 213,000, down from 214,000 the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in the labor market[30] - The INDEED job vacancy index decreased to a weekly average of 104.5, slightly up from the previous week[34] Price Movements - The RJ/CRB commodity price index rose to 365.79, increasing by 3.9% week-on-week and 17.0% over the past two weeks[36] - U.S. gasoline retail prices increased to $3.36 per gallon, up 16.6% from the previous week and 20.3% from two weeks ago[36] Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the U.S. and Eurozone tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the U.S. dropping to 0.133 from 0.150 a week prior[40] - The offshore dollar liquidity showed a recovery in the yen against the dollar, while the euro against the dollar deteriorated[43] - The 10-year U.S.-Eurozone bond yield spread widened to 127.2 basis points, up from 124.1 basis points the previous week[45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for JD Logistics (02618.HK) [1] Core Views - JD Logistics achieved a net profit of 7.71 billion in 2025, focusing on integrated supply chain development and expanding overseas operations [1] - The company reported total revenue of 217.15 billion in 2025, representing an 18.8% year-on-year growth [7] - The report highlights the growth in revenue from external customers, which reached 136.8 billion, a 7.1% increase, while revenue from JD Group surged by 46% to 80.3 billion [7] - The company aims to enhance its global presence, having doubled its self-operated overseas warehouse area and launched the JoyExpress brand in key international markets [7] Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue for 2025 was 217.15 billion, with projections of 262.80 billion for 2026 and 286.30 billion for 2027 [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 was 6.65 billion, expected to rise to 8.48 billion in 2026 and 9.87 billion in 2027 [3] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2025 was 7.71 billion, with forecasts of 9.61 billion for 2026 and 11.06 billion for 2027 [3] - **Profitability Metrics**: - The gross profit margin for 2025 was 9.1%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The adjusted net profit margin was 3.55%, down by 0.8 percentage points from the previous year [7] - **Valuation Metrics**: - The report suggests a target price of 19.6 HKD per share, indicating a potential upside of 44% from the current price of 13.64 HKD [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 12 for 2026, decreasing to 8 by 2028 [3] Operational Highlights - The company operates over 1,600 warehouses with a total management area exceeding 34 million square meters, enhancing its integrated supply chain capabilities [7] - JD Logistics has expanded its customer base, reaching 91,161 external integrated supply chain clients, a 13% increase year-on-year [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of the last-mile delivery service, which has been significantly improved through the integration of instant delivery services [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.887 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 3.29% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 23.29% to 722 million yuan [1][3]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to insufficient industry demand due to the downturn in the real estate sector, with the decorative materials business accounting for 77% of total revenue [7]. - The increase in net profit is primarily due to the fair value changes from the investment in a subsidiary that went public, contributing an additional 253 million yuan [7]. - The custom home furnishing business has seen a significant decline in revenue and gross margin over the past three years, but is expected to recover as the negative impacts from the engineering customization segment diminish [7]. - The overall industry is projected to grow steadily, with the company focusing on expanding its market share through rural channel development, which is expected to yield competitive advantages [7]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to recover to 9.697 billion yuan in 2026, with a growth rate of 9.1%, and further to 10.628 billion yuan in 2027, with a growth rate of 9.6% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 783 million yuan in 2026 and 895 million yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 8.4% and 14.3% respectively [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.87 yuan in 2025, 0.94 yuan in 2026, and 1.08 yuan in 2027 [3]. - The target price for the company is set at 18.87 yuan per share, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20x for 2026 [3][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 30 - 10y spread may fluctuate in the core range of 40 - 50bp in the short term, and trading opportunities above 50bp can be gradually considered. The issuance rhythm of ultra - long special treasury bonds needs attention [2][3]. - The regulatory upgrade of inter - bank current deposits has limited impact on scale and liability improvement, and the supply - demand environment of certificates of deposit is different from that in 2024 [4][5]. - The short - end of the bond market is crowded, and the long - end should focus on the sentiment deduction of 30y bonds and the spread mining of 10y China Development Bank bonds [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 30 - 10y Spread: Where Will It Go? - **30 - 10y Spread Fluctuation Range**: In the short term, it may fluctuate in the core range of 40 - 50bp, and the overall fluctuation range is 30 - 60bp. Above 50bp, there may be band trading opportunities. From the perspective of the allocation disk, when the 30 - 10y spread is above 50bp, it may attract allocation - type funds. From the perspective of the trading disk, the further short - selling power of securities firms may be limited, and attention can be paid to the short - covering repair of 30y treasury bonds at the end of March [3][19][22]. - **Follow - up Focus on the Issuance Rhythm of Ultra - long Special Treasury Bonds**: If the Q2 treasury bond plan at the end of March shows that no ultra - long ordinary treasury bonds are arranged in April, it may indicate a faster rhythm of special treasury bond issuance. If ultra - long ordinary treasury bonds are still arranged for additional issuance in April, the issuance time of special treasury bonds may be after that [3][29]. 3.2 What's the Impact of the "Patch" on Inter - bank Current Deposit Supervision? - **Regulatory Upgrade**: The supervision of inter - bank current deposit interest rates has been upgraded, requiring that the proportion of inter - bank current deposits higher than the 7 - day reverse repurchase OMO policy rate (1.4%) at the end of the quarter should not exceed 10% - 20% [33][34]. - **Differences from 2024 Supervision**: The scale impact may be relatively small, the improvement of liabilities may be limited, and the supply - demand environment of certificates of deposit is essentially different from that in 2024 [35][40][41]. 3.3 Bond Market Strategy: Short - end Crowded, Long - end Focus on 30y Sentiment Deduction and 10y China Development Bank Spread Mining - **Short - end Strategy**: The space for short - end leverage to capture interest rate spreads has been extremely compressed, and the allocation cost - effectiveness has decreased. Certificates of deposit may fluctuate at a low level close to 1.55% in the short term, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in funds at the end of the quarter [47][48]. - **Long - end Strategy**: In the short term, the 10y treasury bond is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range of 1.8% - 1.85%. It is recommended to hold existing assets and adopt a coupon strategy throughout the year. For incremental funds, if the 10y bond continues to rise, it can be gradually added. When the 30y treasury bond rises above 2.3%, the allocation disk can gradually intervene [52]. - **Spread Comparison Strategy**: Focus on the spread mining opportunities of 10y China Development Bank bonds in the long - end, 4y policy - financial bonds in the medium - short - end, and insurance funds can grasp the high points of yields to allocate 15y - 20y local bonds in the ultra - long - end [54][56]. 3.4 Interest - rate Bond Market Review: The New Rules for Inter - bank Current Deposits and Inflation Concerns Lead to a Steeper Bond Yield Curve - **Funding Situation**: The central bank conducted a net withdrawal through OMO, and the funding was balanced and loose [60][61][62]. - **Primary Issuance**: The net financing of treasury bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased, while the net financing of policy - financial bonds increased [69][71][76]. - **Benchmark Changes**: The term spreads of both treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds widened [67][78][80].

存单周报（0309-0314）：供不应求，低位运行 对于存单而言，供不应求的格局下，短期或在接近 1.55%的区间低位波动，关 注季末资金边际变化。供给方面，上周存单发行攀升至 8000 亿元附近，但因 周度到期规模偏大，周度净融资转负，关注银行季末信贷投放情况，至月末仍 有较大的存单到期压力；需求方面，农商行仍是主要的配置机构，但息差空间 压缩后，二级市场边际买入量有所下降。监管方面，根据财联社消息，本周同 业活期自律管理进一步升级，明确超出 OMO 利率的活期存款的占比要求不超 过 10-20%，对比 2024 年年末监管政策看，本次整改仅针对超标部分的活期存 款，覆盖面更小，且利率压降幅度或有限（监管已限制非银活期加权不超过逆 回购利率），预计对负债成本的改善在 1bp 内。不过，当前存单市场处于"供 不应求"的环境中，高息活期存款的配置需求或向存单等进一步转移，进而带 动本周存单定价小幅下行。整体来看，当前流动性环境相对稳定，但结合买断 式逆回购回笼的操作，资金进一步宽松的空间有限，在不降息的预期下， 1yMLF 及资金价格（DR007）对存单形成下限约束，且不排除本月 MLF 操作 与买断式逆回购类 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive industry, suggesting an active investment approach as the market sentiment has reached a turning point [3][6]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the terminal sales of passenger vehicles and the overall vehicle sector are showing signs of recovery, with new car price increases being accepted by some investors as a counter to rising raw material costs [3][6]. - The report highlights that the AIDC (Automotive Industry Development Corporation) remains a key investment focus, despite some stock price adjustments in companies like Weichai [3][6]. - The report recommends actively positioning in the automotive sector, particularly in the months of March and April, with expectations of exceeding sales, profitability, and export forecasts [6]. Data Tracking - In February, new energy vehicle deliveries showed varied performance, with BYD delivering 190,190 units (down 41.1% year-on-year), while NIO saw a significant increase of 57.6% year-on-year with 20,797 units delivered [5][20]. - Traditional automakers also showed notable sales performance, with BAIC Blue Valley achieving a year-on-year increase of 18.3% with 7,000 units sold [5][21]. - The average discount rate in the automotive industry increased to 9.3%, with a discount amount of 20,940 yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease [5][7]. Industry News - The report notes that the average price of lithium carbonate in Q1 2026 reached 154,227 yuan per ton, marking a year-on-year increase of 103% [9]. - The report mentions that the automotive export volume in February reached 672,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 52.4% [10][26]. - The report highlights that the East Wind Group's capital restructuring plan was approved, allowing for the privatization and independent listing of Lantu Motors on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [78]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict on shipping rates, with oil tanker rates experiencing a decline but remaining at historical highs, while container shipping rates are on the rise [1][2]. - The daily average of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has drastically decreased by 95% to 5 vessels, compared to 125 vessels before the conflict, with oil tankers averaging only 1 vessel per day [1][11]. - Brent crude oil futures have shown substantial volatility, closing at $103.89 per barrel, an increase of 11% from March 6 [1][15]. Industry Data Tracking Shipping Market Impact - Oil shipping rates have adjusted from historical highs, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index at $175,000, down 54.2% week-on-week. The Middle East to China route is reported at $390,000 per day, down 17% [2][18]. - Container shipping rates have increased, with the SCFI index reaching 1710 points, up 14.9% week-on-week, driven by rising fuel costs and the ongoing geopolitical situation [2][25]. - The dry bulk shipping market has seen limited impact, with the BDI index at 2028 points, reflecting a 0.9% increase week-on-week [2][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that if the Middle East conflict remains manageable and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes, it could trigger a replenishment market. The report continues to recommend companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3][31]. - Emphasis is placed on the importance of energy resource security, with recommendations for logistics and warehousing companies like Hongchuan Wisdom and Milky Way [3][31]. - The report also highlights the potential for growth in the aviation sector, with a focus on major airlines and logistics companies, suggesting a favorable outlook for companies like China Southern Airlines and Spring Airlines [4][58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for EHang Intelligent (EH) [1] Core Insights - EHang Intelligent achieved a total revenue of 510 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.7%. The fourth quarter saw a revenue of 244 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 48.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 163.6% [6] - The company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 231 million yuan for the full year 2025, while the fourth quarter showed a net profit of 10.49 million yuan. The adjusted net profit for the year was 29.4 million yuan, marking the second consecutive year of non-GAAP profitability, with Q4 adjusted net profit reaching 71.5 million yuan [6] - EHang delivered a total of 221 eVTOL products in 2025, including 215 EH216 series products and 6 VT35 aircraft. The fourth quarter alone saw the highest quarterly delivery of 100 units [6] - The commercial operation of EH216-S in China is set to officially launch in March 2026, with two operators, EHang General Aviation and He Yi Aviation, starting ticketed aerial sightseeing services [6] - EHang is also making progress in overseas commercialization, with plans to obtain its first overseas commercial operation license in Thailand, Qatar, and Japan [6] Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2026 is adjusted to 619 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be a loss of 182 million yuan, while the adjusted net profit is expected to be 76 million yuan [2][6] - For 2027, the revenue is forecasted to reach 900 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 45.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to narrow to a loss of 32 million yuan, and the adjusted net profit is projected to be 206 million yuan [2][6] - The report introduces a new revenue forecast for 2028 at 1.1 billion yuan, with an expected net profit of 16 million yuan and an adjusted net profit of 280 million yuan [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aluminum sector, highlighting ongoing supply disruptions and recovering demand as key factors for price fluctuations [2]. Core Insights - The aluminum market is experiencing high volatility due to supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which has led to a tightening of global aluminum supplies. Domestic demand is showing signs of recovery, with a week-on-week increase in operating rates among major aluminum processing companies [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the current geopolitical conflicts are not just short-term supply issues but may lead to a broader global supply crisis, particularly due to energy price increases affecting production costs [4][5]. - The aluminum industry is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in the medium to long term, supported by low global inventories and a favorable pricing environment for aluminum [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The aluminum supply is under pressure due to reduced production in the Middle East, with Qatar's aluminum production cut by 40%. This situation is exacerbated by the ongoing geopolitical conflicts, which have led to increased energy prices and potential production cuts in high-cost regions [3][4]. - Domestic aluminum processing companies have shown a recovery in operating rates, with notable increases in specific sectors such as aluminum wire and cable, which rose by 2% to 65% [3]. Company Performance - Focus on the company Jiaozuo Wanfang, which reported record high performance for 2025, achieving a revenue of 6.495 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.46%, and a net profit of 1.071 billion yuan, up 81.95% year-on-year. The company is also undergoing a significant asset restructuring to enhance its resource security and profitability [6][11]. Stock Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for both gold and aluminum sectors, recommending specific companies such as China Hongqiao, Hongchuang Holdings, and Jiaozuo Wanfang for investment consideration [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the automotive industry, indicating that the sentiment has reached an inflection point and AIDC remains a key investment direction [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the terminal sales of passenger vehicles and the complete vehicle sector have shown signs of recovery, with new car price increases being recognized by some investors as a counter to rising raw material costs. Additionally, the increase in oil and gas prices has contributed to a positive shift in investment sentiment [3][4]. - The report suggests that the automotive sector is expected to see improved sales, profitability, and exports in March and April, with specific recommendations for companies such as Geely, BYD, and Jianghuai Automotive [6][10]. Data Tracking - In February, new energy vehicle deliveries showed varied performance, with BYD delivering 190,190 units (down 41.1% year-on-year), while NIO saw a significant increase of 57.6% year-on-year with 20,797 units delivered [5][20]. - Traditional automakers also reported significant sales changes, with SAIC Motor leading with 269,000 units sold (down 8.6% year-on-year) [5][21]. - The average discount rate in the industry increased to 9.3%, with a discount amount of 20,940 yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease [5][7]. Industry News - The report notes that the average price of lithium carbonate in Q1 2026 reached 154,227 yuan per ton, marking a 103% year-on-year increase [9]. - The automotive export figures for February showed a significant growth of 52.4% year-on-year, with a total of 672,000 vehicles exported [10][26]. - The report mentions that the capital restructuring plan of Dongfeng Motor Corporation was approved, allowing it to privatize and list its high-end electric vehicle brand, Lantu, on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [26].