Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent opening of amortized cost bond funds has led to a significant increase in credit bond allocations, with a total opening scale reaching 33 billion yuan, including 8.1 billion yuan for 2-year and 24.9 billion yuan for 5-year funds [1][9] - In the past two weeks, funds have significantly increased their allocation to credit bonds, with net purchases of 62.2 billion yuan from January 12 to January 16 and 105.9 billion yuan from January 19 to January 23, indicating a strong demand for 3-5 year credit bonds [1][9] - The report notes that the 3-5 year short-term bonds have shown outstanding performance, with yields declining by 3-7 basis points and spreads narrowing by 1-6 basis points, particularly highlighting the 4-year AA+ rated bonds which saw a yield drop of 7 basis points [2][10] Group 2 - The report anticipates continued demand for 3-5 year credit bonds in the upcoming weeks, with expected opening scales of 20.7 billion yuan and 22.8 billion yuan, although it cautions that the current spreads are at relatively low levels, limiting further compression [2][10] - The credit strategy suggests that the 4-year bonds have high convexity and should be closely monitored for their allocation value, especially as the amortized cost bond funds enter a concentrated opening period [3][36] - The report emphasizes that the overall sentiment in the bond market is improving, with credit bond yields generally declining and a notable performance in the 3-4 year segment, indicating a potential recovery in market conditions [17][32]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 悲观预期修正，但做多仍待催化 ——债券周报 20260125 ❖ 一、债市策略：悲观预期修正，但做多预期仍需催化 1、本周债市延续修复态势，超长端更为明显，主要是对前期债市担忧的修正， 年初风险偏好明显提振、供给放量及资金担忧等市场的利空因素边际弱化： 一是风险偏好趋稳，政策诉求"慢牛"行情。1 月 14 日交易所通知上调两融保 证金比例，1 月 15 日起汇金显著减持宽基指数 ETF，意在控制权益行情过热 风险。此外，元旦假期前"两新"、地产增值税调减等政策利好基本消化完毕， 且本周财政部与发改委会议定调也符合此前预期、增量不多，短期围绕政策预 期的交易降温，对债市扰动也有下降 二是央行态度积极，资金平稳。本周税期叠加北交所打新等因素，资金扰动增 加，但在央行相对积极的投放呵护下，资金运行较为平稳。本周 MLF 实现 7000 亿元净投放，考虑当前资金面整体平稳，"长钱"投放增加或也指向短期降准的 概率有所压缩。 三是地方债发行进度慢于预期，供给压力较为可控。1 月前三周地方债发行进 度为全月计划的 51%，最后一周赶进度，全月仍略小于计划值，导致市场对供 给担忧显著缓 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive sector, indicating a potential rebound in vehicle sales in the first quarter driven by retail and export growth [3][4]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to see a rebound in vehicle sales, particularly in the first quarter, with catalysts from retail and export activities. The focus for auto parts remains on new industries such as intelligent driving, robotics, and liquid cooling technologies [3][4]. - Traditional automotive stocks have shown relative stability in prices, while the robotics sector is expanding into second-tier markets [3]. - The report highlights significant growth in new energy vehicle deliveries, with companies like NIO and Li Auto showing notable month-on-month increases [6][7]. Data Tracking - In early January, the discount rate for traditional vehicles remained stable at 9.6%, with an average discount amount of 22,259 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,192 yuan [5]. - December saw a decline in wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles, with wholesale sales down 8.7% year-on-year and retail sales down 16.8% [5][6]. - New energy vehicle deliveries in December showed a mixed performance, with BYD delivering 420,398 units (down 18.3% year-on-year) while NIO and Li Auto reported significant increases in deliveries [6][7]. Industry News - The report notes that the German government announced subsidies of up to 6,000 euros for families purchasing new electric vehicles to boost the domestic electric vehicle industry [10]. - The report also mentions that the Chinese government is implementing policies to promote the replacement of old vehicles and appliances, which is expected to enhance the automotive market [10][30]. - Geely's new MPV model, the Galaxy V900, was launched with a price range of 269,800 to 329,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities [30].

证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20260119-20260123） 避险升温&美联储独立性危机，金银价格再 推荐（维持） 创新高 ❑ 一、工业金属 ❑ 行业观点 2：受淡季影响和宏观扰动，铝价或震荡运行 ❑ 事件：根据钢联，1 月 23 日，SHFE 铜铝价格比为 4.18，LME 铜铝价格比为 4.08；库存看，截至 1 月 22 日，国内铝锭现货库存 76.8 万吨，环比上周四增 加 1.9 万吨，环比本周一增加 0.4 万吨，铝棒库存 22.95 万吨，环比上周四增 加 1.6 万吨，环比本周一增加 0.5 万吨；1 月 23 日 LME 库存 50.73 万吨，环 比本周一增加 22275 吨，环比上周五增加 19275 吨。从下游看，根据阿拉丁数 据，本周国内铝板带行业产能利用率为 70.39%，较上周下降 0.36 个百分点； 国内铝箔行业产能利用率为 75.52%，较上周上涨 0.77 个百分点。 观点：我们认为铝短期进入消费淡季，淡季效应在逐步显性，但是长期基本面 和宏观叙事大逻辑暂未改变，对铝价支撑强。当前看铝基本面：一是未来几年 供给刚性明显，电力扰动存量项目减产预期持续强化， ...

- The report introduces a "Total Heat Index" indicator, which is defined as the sum of a stock's browsing, watchlist additions, and click counts, normalized as a percentage of the total market on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000. The value range of the indicator is [0, 10,000][7] - A rotation strategy is constructed based on the weekly rate of change of the heat index (MA2). At the end of each trading week, the strategy involves buying the broad-based index with the highest MA2 rate of change. If the "Others" group has the highest rate of change, the strategy remains in cash. The strategy has achieved an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 3.6% in 2026[13][16] - The report also constructs two simple portfolios based on concept heat indices. The first portfolio (TOP) selects the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat index from the top 5 concepts with the highest heat index changes each week, while the second portfolio (BOTTOM) selects the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat index from the same concepts. The BOTTOM portfolio has historically achieved an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%[30][32]

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【金工周报】（20260119-20260123） 短期择时模型以看多为主，后市或震荡向上 ❖ 本周回顾 本周市场涨多跌少，上证指数单周上涨 0.84%，创业板指单周下跌 0.34%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型部分宽基指数看多。特征龙虎榜机构模型中性。特征成交量 模型中性。智能算法沪深 300 模型看多，智能算法中证 500 模型看多。 中期：涨跌停模型中性。上下行收益差模型所有宽基指数看多。月历效应模型 中性。 长期：长期动量模型中性。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型看多。A 股综合国证 2000 模型中性。 港股模型： 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看多。恒生指数上下行收益差模型中性，上下行收益 差相似模型看多。 本周行业指数普遍上涨，涨幅前五的行业为：建材、石油石化、钢铁、有色金 属、基础化工，跌幅前五的行业为：银行、通信、食品饮料、非银行金融、计 算机。从资金流向角度来说，银行、非银行金融、有色金属、煤炭、建材主力 资金净流入居前，电子、通信、计算机、电力设备及新能源、国防军工主力资 金净流出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 94.53%，相较于上周增加了 13 个 b ...

Economic Data Review - The US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 51, indicating expansion, while the Q3 actual GDP annualized growth rate was finalized at 4.4%[1] - Japan's December export growth was below expectations at 5.1%, compared to the forecast of 6.1%[10] - The Eurozone's January ZEW Economic Sentiment Index increased to 40.8, and France's Manufacturing PMI reached a near four-year high of 51[10] US Economic Indicators - The WEI index for the US decreased to 2.34% from 2.48%[15] - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth marginally fell to 5.5% from 5.7%[17] - The 30-year mortgage rate in the US rose to 6.09% from 6.06% the previous week, while the MBA Market Composite Index increased by 14.1% to 397.2[21] Employment Trends - ADP's weekly job additions fell to 46,000, down from 70,000 the previous week[26] - Initial jobless claims in the US rose to 200,000 from 199,000 the prior week, while continuing claims decreased to 1.849 million[30] - The INDEED job vacancy index showed a slight decline, averaging 105.3, down 0.5% from the previous week[34] Price Movements - The RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index increased by 3.4% to 312.24, while US gasoline prices rose to $2.70 per gallon, up 1.3% from the previous week[36] Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US dropping to 0.812 from 0.848[43] - Offshore dollar liquidity showed improvement for the yen against the dollar, while the euro's liquidity worsened[46] - The 10-year US-EU bond yield spread narrowed to 132.3 basis points from 134.6 basis points[48]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 法国制造业 PMI 升至近四年新高——海外 周报第 124 期 ❖ 核心观点： 1、重要数据回顾：①美国 1 月标普全球制造业 PMI 回升，第三季度实际 GDP 环比折年率终值为 4.4%，ADP 周度新增就业人数下滑。②日本 12 月出口增 速不及预期。③欧元区 1 月 ZEW 经济景气指数回升，1 月制造业 PMI 初值 回升，法国制造业 PMI 升至近四年新高的 51。 2、美国基本面高频：①景气上行的有：地产（房贷申请数量继续回升）、物价 （大宗价格回升、美国汽油零售价回升）、就业（续请失业金回落）。②景气下 行的有：WEI 指数（经济景气下行）、消费（红皮书商业零售同比边际回落）、 就业（初请失业金人数回升）。 3、美国流动性高频：①美国和欧元区金融条件收紧。②离岸美元流动性：日 元兑美元流动性改善，欧元兑美元流动性恶化。 ❖ 一、过去一周重要数据回顾 美国经济活动指数回落。1 月 17 日当周，美国 WEI 指数升至 2.34%，上周为 2.4 。 上周为-0.03%。 ❖ 三、需求 1、美国红皮书商业零售同比增速边际回落。1 月 16 日当周 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry but emphasizes a positive outlook on various segments within the industry, particularly innovative drugs and medical devices [9][10]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is transitioning from a quantity-driven logic to a quality-driven logic, focusing on differentiated products and internationalization by 2025 [9]. - There is a notable shift in funding from active to passive medical funds, indicating a low allocation status in the pharmaceutical sector, which is expected to change as passive funds become a significant part of the investment landscape [16][17]. - The report outlines a structured approach to ETF investment in the pharmaceutical sector, emphasizing a dynamic combination of broad-based and targeted strategies to balance returns and risks [27]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index decreased by 0.38%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.24 percentage points, ranking 25th among 30 sectors [6]. - The top-performing stocks included *ST Changyao, Hualan Biological Engineering, and Kangzhong Medical, while the worst performers were Kaiyin Technology and Aidi Pharmaceutical [6]. Innovative Drugs - The report highlights a positive outlook for domestic innovative drugs, suggesting a focus on companies that can deliver profits, such as BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and others [9]. Medical Devices - The medical device sector is expected to see a recovery in bidding volumes for imaging equipment by 2025, with a focus on companies like Mindray and United Imaging [9]. - The home medical device market is also anticipated to grow due to supportive policies and accelerated international expansion [9]. Innovation Chain (CXO + Life Science Services) - The report indicates a potential recovery in overseas investment and financing, with domestic financing expected to stabilize, marking the beginning of a new wave of innovation [9]. Pharmaceutical Industry - The report suggests that the specialty API sector may see cost improvements, leading to a new growth cycle, with companies like Tonghua Dongbao and Huahai Pharmaceutical highlighted for their potential [9]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The report discusses the expected growth in the basic drug market and the impact of state-owned enterprise reforms on companies like Kunming Pharmaceutical and Kangyuan Pharmaceutical [11]. Pharmacy Sector - The report expresses optimism about the pharmacy sector due to the acceleration of prescription outflow and the optimization of competitive dynamics, recommending companies like YaoXing and YiFeng Pharmacy [11]. Medical Services - The report notes that anti-corruption measures and centralized procurement are improving the market environment for private medical services, with recommendations for companies like Huashan Medical and Aier Eye Hospital [11]. Blood Products - The report anticipates a favorable long-term growth path for the blood products industry, with companies like TianTan Biological and Boya Biological expected to benefit from increased demand and supply elasticity [11].

证券研究报 告 【债券周报】 工业略降温，二手房延续"开门红" ——每周高频跟踪 20260124 （1）动力煤：煤价由涨转跌。全国多地降温，居民用电需求增加，沿海电 厂日耗迅速攀升。但下游库存仍较为充裕，补库压力不明显。 （2）螺纹钢：螺纹钢价格由涨转跌。本周冬季需求淡季特征明显，户外施 工逐步停滞，螺纹钢表观需求下降，厂库、社库双增，下游需求季节性走 弱，钢厂利润修复缓。 （3）沥青：开工率环比下降。受降温降水天气影响，终端施工需求进一步 下滑，华南需求平稳，其他地区需求均下降至低位。 2、地产：（1）新房成交行情小幅降温。1 月 16 日-1 月 22 日，30 城新房成交 面积 116.4 万平方米，环比-10.55%，单周同比-38%，跌幅扩大。（2）二手房 成交环比继续增长。二手房成交面积环比+14.3%，环比保持上行，同比回正 至+14%，表现强势。 ❖ 消费相关：1 月中上旬乘用车零售同比-28% 1、汽车：1 月 1 日-28 日，乘用车市场零售 67.9 万辆，同比-28%，环比- 37%，去年春节偏早，节前集中购车影响形成高基数，导致 1 月同比偏低。 2、原油：油价涨幅扩大。布伦特原油 ...