证 券 研 究 报 告 迈富时（02556.HK）深度研究报告 强推（首次） 专精 CRM 软件，软件 Agentic 时代领军 1. AI+SaaS 模块：考虑公司 AI+SAAAS 业务仍处于快速成长阶段，利润率尚 未释放，因此采用 PS 法估值。选择美股 CRM、HUBS 作为 AI+SaaS 模块的 可比公司，2025 年可比公司平均 PS 为 8.55 倍，取可比公司平均估值 8.55x， 对应 AI+SaaS 部分估值为 124.23 亿元。 2. 精准营销模块：精准营销模块具有一定利润率，因此采用可比公司结合 PE 估值方法作为估值依据，选择蓝色光标、易点天下作为精准营销服务的可比公 司，2025 年可比公司平均 PE 为 43.0x，取可比公司平均估值 43.0x，取蓝色光 标与易点天下 2015-2024 年净利率均值，对应精准营销部分净利率约为 6%， 对应估值约为 23.27 亿元。 ❖ 风险提示：竞争加剧；宏观经济波动；研发进度不及预期，大模型及 AIGC 商 业化不及预期。 [主要财务指标 ReportFinancialIndex] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 黄金隐含"秩序重构"指数：捕捉全球秩序 重构的交易信号 我们认为，黄金价格的惊人涨幅是市场对全球秩序重构预期的直接反映。这一 重构涵盖货币体系多元化、地缘政治格局重塑和金融市场再平衡，具体体现在 以下三个关键驱动因素：一是全球购金热潮，2022~2024 年，全球央行购金规 模创下 50 年新高；二是地缘风险升温，2022~2025 年，俄乌冲突、巴以冲突 令全球担忧地缘冲突升级的避险情绪高涨；三是美元体系的压力，随着美债规 模持续扩大，美债可持续性的担忧不断加剧，美元在全球储备中的权重回落。 ❖ 黄金隐含"秩序重构"指数 我们提出黄金隐含"秩序重构"指数（Gold Implied Order Reconstruction Index， GIORI），旨在量化黄金价格中无法被显性变量解释的波动，揭示全球金融和 政治秩序重构的市场预期。GIORI 指数通过分析显性变量无法解释的价格残 差，提炼市场对非显性风险的定价信号。GIORI 指数的构建逻辑非常简单直 观：如果显性因子拟合模型无法完全解释黄金价格的波动，那么我们认为未被 解释的部分很可能与货币体系多元化、地缘 ...

证券研究报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 医药生物 | 2025年5月28日 干细胞疗法：政策扶持，研发提速，产业迎来发展机遇 华创医药首席分析师 郑辰 华创医药高级分析师 高初蕾 执业编号：S0360520110002 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070002 邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 干细胞疗法：从临床逐渐走向商业化 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 • 干细胞疗法方兴未艾：干细胞凭借其多向分化潜能和自我更新能力，在再生医学、疾病治疗等领域展现一定治疗潜力，为免疫性 疾病、心脑血管疾病、神经退行性疾病等难治性疾病提供了新的治疗希望，成为生物医药领域的重要发展方向。 Market.US预计 全球市场规模将从2025年的170亿美元增长至2030年的330亿美元（CAGR 14%），前瞻产业研究院预计中国市场规模2026年 达325亿元。 • 中美相继迎来干细胞药品商业化元年：2025年中美进入干细胞疗法商业化关键阶段，2024年底美国FDA批准首款MSCs药物 （M ...

转债市场日度跟踪 20250527 ❖ 市场概况：今日转债多数下跌，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 0.24%、上证综指环比下降 0.18%、深证成 指环比下降 0.61%、创业板指环比下降 0.68%、上证 50 指数环比下降 0.52%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 0.34%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪升温。可转债市场成交额为 558.54 亿元，环比 增长 3.11%；万得全 A 总成交额为 10241.23 亿元，环比减少 0.94%；沪深两市 主力净流出 146.65 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 0.60bp 至 1.73%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 118.05 元，环比昨日下降 0.28%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 162.04 元，环比 下降 0.41%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 109.65 元，环比下降 0.16%；平衡型转债 的收盘价为 119.56 元，环比下降 0.30%。从转债收盘价分布情况看，130 元以 上高价券个数占比 21.19%，较昨日环比下降 1.48pct；占比变化最大的区间为 110-120（包含 120 ...

证券研究报告 【宏观快评】 以"量"获"利"——4月工业企业利润点评 主要观点 * 4月工业企业利润数据:利润增长加快 4月,根据统计局数据,全国规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 3.0%,较 3 月 份加快 0.4个百分点。库存方面,截至今年4月,库存同比 3.9%,前值为 4.2%。 量、价、利润率拆分来看,量强价弱。PPI 同比,4 月同比为-2.7%,3 月为 -2.5%。工业增加值4月增速为6.1%,3月为7.7%;收入端4月增速为 2.64%, 3月为4.42%。利润率方面,4月为5.38%,去年同期(可比口径)为 5.36%。 利润率拆分来看,4月毛利率为 14.0%,去年同期为 14.2%;费用率 7.85%, 去年同期为 8.08%;其他损益收入比为 0.75%,去年同期为 0.76%。 分行业来看,4月,采矿业增速为-30.77%,前值为-26.03%;制造业增速为 10.96%,前值为 11.92%;电热气水增速为 1.49%,前值为-6.13%。制造业内 发观研究 宏观快评 2025年05月27日 华创证券研究所 (一)工业整体:"量"改善带动利润改善 证券分析师:张瑜 电话:010-66 ...

4 月，根据统计局数据，全国规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 3.0%，较 3 月 份加快 0.4 个百分点。库存方面，截至今年 4 月，库存同比 3.9%，前值为 4.2%。 量、价、利润率拆分来看，量强价弱。PPI 同比，4 月同比为-2.7%，3 月为 宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 以"量"获"利"——4 月工业企业利润点评 主要观点 ❖ 4 月工业企业利润数据：利润增长加快 -2.5%。工业增加值 4 月增速为 6.1%，3 月为 7.7%；收入端 4 月增速为 2.64%， 3 月为 4.42%。利润率方面，4 月为 5.38%，去年同期（可比口径）为 5.36%。 利润率拆分来看，4 月毛利率为 14.0%，去年同期为 14.2%；费用率 7.85%， 去年同期为 8.08%；其他损益收入比为 0.75%，去年同期为 0.76%。 分行业来看，4 月，采矿业增速为-30.77%，前值为-26.03%；制造业增速为 10.96%，前值为 11.92%；电热气水增速为 1.49%，前值为-6.13%。制造业内 部，上游增速为-4.27%，中游增速为 21.23%，前值为 7.64%。下游 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The convertible bond and equity markets are currently in a high - level consolidation phase. Before the market chooses a direction, attention can be paid to low - priced, mid - cap, and TMT sectors [1][12]. - In 2025, about 9% of convertible bonds have completed the disclosure of regular rating reports, with a similar pace to 2024. A total of 10 convertible bonds have had their ratings downgraded, showing no significant change compared to previous years, and the market reaction is not obvious [1][12]. - From May to July, the performance of convertible bonds divided by rating shows little differentiation, while the performance divided by price shows significant differences. Low - priced convertible bonds may be at a good price but not a good time yet, and the suppression factors may be lifted after the rating downgrade risk is realized in mid - to late June [2][14]. - The small - cap index and trading congestion are at historical high levels, facing short - term adjustment pressure. In contrast, the mid - cap index and congestion have fallen to relatively safe low levels, and opportunities for mid - cap repair after June can be focused on [3][24]. - Since mid - March, the trading congestion of the TMT sector has dropped significantly to a low level in the past three years. In June, opportunities for sector rotation within the TMT direction can be noted, such as the short - term opportunities of Qianglian Convertible Bond [4][32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Consolidation: Track Opportunities in Low - priced, Mid - cap, and TMT Sectors - **Regular Rating Report Disclosure**: As of May 24, 2025, about 9% of convertible bonds have completed the disclosure of regular rating reports, with a similar pace to 2024. A total of 10 convertible bonds have had their ratings downgraded, and the market reaction is not obvious [12]. - **Low - priced Bond Performance**: From May to July, the performance of convertible bonds divided by rating shows little differentiation, while the performance divided by price shows significant differences. Low - priced convertible bonds have an average decline of 5 points in 35 trading days after early May. In 2025, low - priced convertible bonds have performed better than in previous years, mainly due to the strong learning effect of 2024. The suppression factors may be lifted after the rating downgrade risk is realized in mid - to late June [2][14]. - **Mid - cap and Small - cap Analysis**: The small - cap index and trading congestion are at historical high levels, facing short - term adjustment pressure. The mid - cap index and congestion have fallen to relatively safe low levels, and opportunities for mid - cap repair after June can be focused on. From a calendar effect perspective, there is no significant difference among large, medium, and small - cap stocks from May to July [3][24]. - **TMT Sector Analysis**: Since mid - March, the trading congestion of the TMT sector has dropped significantly to a low level in the past three years. In June, opportunities for sector rotation within the TMT direction can be noted, such as the short - term opportunities of Qianglian Convertible Bond [4][32]. 3.2 Market Review: Convertible Bonds Slightly Declined Weekly, and Valuations Slightly Compressed - **Weekly Market Conditions**: Last week, major stock indices declined, and the convertible bond market slightly declined. There are 475 issued and outstanding convertible bonds, with a balance of 68.3527 billion yuan. In the equity market, most industries declined, while in the convertible bond market, most sectors rose. Among popular concepts, about half declined [37][41]. - **Valuation Performance**: The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 118.68 yuan, a 0.20% decline from the previous Friday. The convertible bond market's 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate was 22.78%, a 0.17 - percentage - point decline from the previous Friday. The conversion premium rates of convertible bonds of various ratings and scales have increased, with the A + rating rising by 1.81 percentage points and those below 300 million yuan (including 300 million yuan) rising by 2.63 percentage points [47]. 3.3 Terms and Supply: Huaxiang and Hongchang Convertible Bonds Announced Redemption, and CSRC Approval of Convertible Bonds is Acceptable - **Terms**: As of May 23, Huaxiang and Hongchang Convertible Bonds announced redemption, with the last trading days on June 6 and June 11, 2025, respectively. No convertible bond's board of directors proposed a downward revision. Nine convertible bonds announced no downward revision, and 16 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger a downward revision [5][64]. - **Primary Market**: No new convertible bonds were listed or issued last week. There were no new board proposals, 5 new cases passed the general meeting of shareholders, 1 new case passed the CSRC review committee, and no new CSRC approvals, compared with + 0, + 5, + 1, - 1 respectively from the same period last year. As of May 23, 10 listed companies have obtained convertible bond issuance approvals, with a planned issuance scale of 1.5048 billion yuan, and 4 listed companies have passed the CSRC review committee, with a total scale of 339.3 million yuan [6][71][74].

证 券 研 究 报 告 中国宏桥（01378.HK）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 有色金属 2025 年 05 月 27 日 ❖ 风险提示：铝价大幅波动；项目进展不及预期；原料成本大幅提升。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 156,169 | 151,000 | 152,589 | 154,399 | | 同比增速(%) | 14.7% | -3.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 22,372 | 20,774 | 22,383 | 23,451 | | 同比增速(%) | 95.2% | -7.1% | 7.7% | 4.8% | | 每股盈利(元) | 2.36 | 2.24 | 2.41 | 2.52 | | 市盈率(倍) | 5.7 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.3 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 保险行业深度研究报告 谁在战胜基准？——基于保险十年深度转型 推荐（维持） 复盘 ❑ 回顾保险板块过去十年，根据行情驱动因素划分阶段： 2015-2016 年：保险板块先升后降，随之低位调整，主要影响因素或在于股市 波动。 2017 年：保险板块显著跑赢大盘，主要驱动或在于 134 号文推动行业价值转 型。 2018-2019 年：保险板块先跌后涨，与大盘走势趋同，投资弹性+减税政策红利 驱动下 2019 年涨幅跑赢大盘。 2020-2022 年：保险板块先涨后跌，主要影响因素或在于疫情扰动及复苏预期、 地产违约事件及代理人改革清虚。 2023 年至今：保险板块多数时期跑赢大盘，影响因素多元化交叉集合体现， 如代理人改革兑现、监管推动压降负债成本、红利结构性行情、新准则下放大 行业贝塔效应。 ❑ 风险提示：监管变动、长端利率加速下行、权益市场震荡、转型不及预期 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.0 HKD based on a 7x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][10][12]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in the aluminum industry, with a comprehensive integrated business model that includes power generation, mining, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum processing, establishing a strong profit moat [8][10]. - The company has a high dividend payout history, with a cumulative cash dividend of 524.9 billion CNY since its listing in 2011, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [8][40]. - The company is strategically positioned with a robust supply chain, including self-sufficient alumina production and a high self-supply rate of electricity, which contributes to a competitive cost structure [8][10][60]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leading aluminum producer with a total alumina capacity of 21 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 646,000 tons as of 2024 [8][45]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the Zhang family controlling 65.53% of the equity, ensuring long-term strategic planning [22][24]. Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 156.17 billion CNY for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.7%, and a net profit of 22.37 billion CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 95.2% [4][25]. - The company’s operating income has grown from 84.18 billion CNY in 2019 to 133.62 billion CNY in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 12% [25][27]. Production and Cost Structure - The company has a self-sufficient alumina production rate exceeding 160%, which stabilizes the cost of aluminum production [2][8]. - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum production in 2024 is projected to be 13,232 CNY per ton, which is among the lowest in the industry [8][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its footprint in the aluminum recycling and processing sectors, with plans to establish a joint venture for recycling 50,000 tons of aluminum per year [2][10]. - The company is also involved in the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which is expected to enhance its earnings starting in 2026 [9][10]. Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in the electrolytic aluminum market, with a production capacity utilization rate close to 100% as of 2024 [46][49]. - The company’s electrolytic aluminum sales volume is expected to reach 583.7 million tons in 2025, reflecting a stable growth trajectory [11][55].