Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) with a target price of 285 CNY [1] Core Views - The company held its 2024 annual shareholders' meeting on May 29, where management provided transparent communication regarding industry outlook, operational plans, investment, and dividend policies [1] - The company aims for long-term stable and healthy development, focusing on a flexible operational strategy and targeting younger demographics with new product lines [1][6] - The report highlights the company's strong operational quality and potential for increasing dividend rates, projecting a dividend payout ratio of 60% for 2024 and a dividend yield of 3.5% for 2025 [6] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 36,011 million CNY in 2024 to 45,917 million CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.4% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 12,243 million CNY in 2024 to 16,101 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 11.5% [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 10.04 CNY in 2024 to 13.20 CNY in 2027 [2] - The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-asset ratio of 30.75% and a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 19 in 2024 to 14 in 2027 [3][2] Operational Insights - The company is focusing on four main product lines: Glass Fen, Old White Fen, Qinghua 20, and Qinghua 26 + 30, with a resource allocation strategy of 1:3:3:3 [6] - The company has achieved over 65.8% of its sales from outside its home province, indicating successful national expansion [6] - The "Fen Enjoyment" channel has seen improved acceptance, with over 88.9 million active terminals, and the company plans to enhance marketing efficiency and cost-effectiveness [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu, with a target price of 300 RMB [1]. Core Views - The company is navigating industry cyclicality with a focus on steady growth, emphasizing long-term high-quality development while actively capturing market share [1]. - The management acknowledges the current pressures in the liquor industry but believes that the unique product attributes of liquor allow it to withstand economic cycles [1]. - The company is committed to enhancing operational efficiency and market penetration, focusing on internal management optimization and external market expansion [1]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 23,578 million RMB - 2025E: 26,086 million RMB (16.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: 28,813 million RMB (10.6% YoY growth) - 2027E: 31,758 million RMB (10.5% YoY growth) [1] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 5,518 million RMB - 2025E: 6,143 million RMB (20.2% YoY growth) - 2026E: 6,862 million RMB (11.3% YoY growth) - 2027E: 7,678 million RMB (11.7% YoY growth) [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 10.44 RMB - 2025E: 11.62 RMB - 2026E: 12.98 RMB - 2027E: 14.53 RMB [1] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 13 times, indicating attractive valuation [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on practical operations and enhancing product offerings, particularly in the mid-range price segment, to drive growth [1]. - Management is implementing a four-pronged strategy to alleviate channel pressures, including boosting sales, reducing inventory, expanding channels, and stabilizing prices [1]. - The company aims to build a robust marketing team and enhance product competitiveness through improved pricing strategies and product quality [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu, with a target price of 300 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company is navigating industry cyclicality with a focus on steady growth, emphasizing long-term high-quality development while addressing short-term market pressures [1]. - The management's pragmatic approach includes enhancing operational efficiency and expanding market share through innovative strategies [1]. - The company aims to strengthen its internal operations and optimize marketing management to foster long-term competitiveness [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 23,578 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.4%. This is expected to grow to 31,758 million CNY by 2027, with a gradual decline in growth rates [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5,518 million CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 20.2%, reaching 7,678 million CNY by 2027 [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 10.44 CNY in 2024, increasing to 14.53 CNY by 2027, with a corresponding decrease in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 15 to 11 over the same period [1]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on maintaining market share and enhancing product quality, with specific initiatives to improve sales channels and customer engagement [1]. - Gujing Gongjiu is adopting a nationwide expansion strategy while emphasizing localized market penetration in core regions [1]. - The management is committed to a pragmatic approach, adjusting growth targets to ensure sustainable operations amidst industry challenges [1].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, InnoScience (02577.HK), marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - InnoScience is a leading player in the GaN power semiconductor industry, focusing on third-generation semiconductor technology breakthroughs. The company is the first globally to achieve 8-inch GaN wafer mass production and holds a 42.4% market share in GaN discrete device shipments as of 2023 [6][14]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth driven by its applications in consumer electronics, data centers, electric vehicles, and industrial power supplies, with projected revenues of 12.45 billion, 24.16 billion, and 39.13 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027 [9][27]. - The report highlights the company's strong competitive advantages, including its IDM model, which allows for better control over the design and manufacturing processes, leading to a wafer yield exceeding 95% and a 30% reduction in unit costs compared to 6-inch wafers [18][19]. Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for InnoScience is expected to grow from 828 million CNY in 2024 to 3.913 billion CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 62% [2]. - The net profit is projected to improve from a loss of 1.046 billion CNY in 2024 to a profit of 614 million CNY in 2027, indicating a significant turnaround in profitability [2][30]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately 339.11 billion HKD, with a circulating market value of 189.13 billion HKD [3]. Industry Overview - The global GaN semiconductor market is experiencing rapid growth, with a market size increase from 1.39 billion CNY in 2019 to 17.60 billion CNY in 2023, reflecting an annual growth rate of 88.5% [27]. - The demand for GaN power semiconductors is driven by the need for higher efficiency and smaller form factors in various applications, including consumer electronics, data centers, and automotive electronics [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the transition from traditional silicon-based semiconductors to GaN technology, which is expected to redefine industry standards and drive significant market expansion [6][7].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 银行自营金融投资在买什么？ ——上市银行 24 年报及 25Q1 季报分析 ❖ 一、上市银行金融投资：交易属性增强，OCI 账户受青睐 低利率及"资产荒"环境下，银行债券投资出现新变化，通过整理上市银行半 年报/年报中金融投资账户数据，可以重点分析银行金融投资总量、账户分布 及久期偏好的边际变化。 1、金融投资规模：（1）季节性：年末增量财政政策加码以及年初信贷开门红 冲刺的影响下，上市银行金融投资占比存在 Q4 上行、Q1 下行的规律。（2）分 银行：负债承压、卖债改善利润指标驱动国有行金融投资同比增速下滑，其他 三类银行金融投资增速进一步抬升，尤其是农商行增速明显上行。 2、金融投资账户：（1）OCI 占比持续上行，一是具备平滑各会计期间利润的 优势，二是收益率下行导致部分金市投资被动选择进入 OCI 账户。（2）分银 行类型来看，国有行一级拿券或更多放入 OCI 账户，同时 TPL 账户占比上行， 交易特征有所强化；股份行和城商行金融投资风格趋于稳健，OCI 账户占比上 行，TPL 账户占比下行；农商行 OCI 账户占比成为最大，交易特征强化。 3、金 ...

Industry Research - The report indicates a decrease in market trading activity, with average returns for various enhanced strategies showing mixed performance since the beginning of the year. For instance, the average weekly return for the 300 enhanced strategy is +1.1%, while the monthly return is +4.5% and the year-to-date return is +2.1% [1] - The report highlights that the average daily trading volume for the CSI 300 has decreased by 22.5% week-on-week and 44.4% month-on-month, while the year-to-date volume has increased by 28.9% [3] - The report identifies the top-performing sectors for the week, month, and year-to-date, with the pharmaceutical and biological sector leading with a weekly increase of +2.2% [4] Performance Metrics - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various indices, noting that the CSI 300 has underperformed relative to the CSI 500 with excess returns of -0.9% for the week and -1.7% for the month [2] - The average daily trading volume for the CSI 500 has shown a week-on-week decrease of 17% and a month-on-month decrease of 42.3%, while the year-to-date volume has increased by 52.8% [3] - The report also notes significant disparities in sector performance, with household goods showing a year-to-date increase of +21%, while non-bank financials have decreased by -11.5% [4]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20250529 ❖ 市场概况：今日转债增量上涨，估值环比抬升 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 0.58%、上证综指环比上涨 0.70%、深证成 指环比上涨 1.24%、创业板指环比上涨 1.37%、上证 50 指数环比上涨 0.29%、 中证 1000 指数环比上涨 1.76%。 市场风格：小盘成长相对占优。大盘成长环比上涨 0.62%、大盘价值环比下降 0.03%、中盘成长环比上涨 1.48%、中盘价值环比上涨 0.62%、小盘成长环比 上涨 1.53%、小盘价值环比上涨 0.84%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪升温。可转债市场成交额为 571.54 亿元，环比 增长 12.24%；万得全 A 总成交额为 12134.10 亿元，环比增长 17.37%；沪深 两市主力净流入 74.33 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 0.45bp 至 1.69%。 转债价格：转债中枢提升，高价券占比提升。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 118.69 元，环比昨日上升 0.59%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 162.71 元，环比 上升 0.07%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 11 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20250528 ❖ 市场概况：今日转债缩量下跌，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 0.07%、上证综指环比下降 0.02%、深证成 指环比下降 0.26%、创业板指环比下降 0.31%、上证 50 指数环比下降 0.08%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 0.40%。 市场风格：小盘价值相对占优。大盘成长环比下降 0.30%、大盘价值环比上涨 0.11%、中盘成长环比下降 0.14%、中盘价值环比下降 0.02%、小盘成长环比下 降 0.45%、小盘价值环比上涨 0.20%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪减弱。可转债市场成交额为 509.21 亿元，环比 减少 8.83%；万得全 A 总成交额为 10338.73 亿元，环比增长 0.95%；沪深两 市主力净流出 185.39 亿元，十年国债收益率环比降低 4.29bp 至 1.68%。 转债价格：转债中枢提升，高价券占比提升。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 118.04 元，环比昨日上升 0.03%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 162.36 元，环比 下降 0.19%；偏债型转债的收盘价 ...

4-8 M IT P 证券研究报告 【宏观专题】 黄金隐含"秩序重构"指数:捕捉全球秩序 重构的交易信号 8 核心观点 2023年12月,我们发布《金:百年,十年,明年》从定性层面十年维度战略 看多黄金,强调当前黄金所处的时代背景更类似于百年一遇的全球秩序重构 期。2024年5月,我们进一步发布《黄金的"非寻常"定价》从定量层面发现 过去 20年间世界黄金协会对黄金价格解释度极高的三大模型近两年对黄金价 格的解释力下降。2025年3月,我们发布了《黄金"狂想曲"——五种权端情 形下的金价推演》,分别假设五种极端情形对黄金的价格弹性进行了极致推演, 发现思维打开后,真正的"动荡"下黄金上涨空间大概率是超出想象的。当下 黄金价格的异常表现颠覆了传统认知,实际利率、通胀预期、美元指数等经典 因子无法充分解释黄金的上涨动力,我们认为黄金价格的异常涨幅隐含了投资 者对全球金融和政治秩序重构的强烈预期。央行购金热潮、地缘政治风险升温、 美元体系的潜在压力共同构成了这一秩序重构的复杂图景。为了度量全球秩序 重构交易的水平,我们提出黄金隐含"秩序重构"指数(Gold Implied Order Reconstruction ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 利润率提振盈利改善，企业温和去库 ——4 月工业企业利润点评 库存方面，名义、实际库存小幅回落 考虑价格因素，4 月 PPI 同比-2.7%、拖累较 3 月继续扩大，剔除 PPI 后的实际 库存增速 6.6%、略低于 3 月的 6.7%，实际库存增速小幅回落。外部关税影响 不确定之下，企业合理控制库存水平，生产与补库节奏相应放缓。与同期相比， 存货周转、应收账款回款依然偏慢，但较前月继续边际改善。 ❖ 总结：综合来看，4 月规模以上工业企业利润单月同比升至 2.9%，比 3 月继 续改善。4 月 PPI 同比降幅扩大至-2.7%、价格拖累依然突出，数量因素成为 单月利润继续改善的原因。一是"以旧换新"政策效果继续释放，二是出口端 保持韧性，转口贸易需求对制造业生产有一定支撑，三是单位营收费用率继续 压降，利润率延续改善。行业方面，中游份额抬升明显、下游份额小幅回落， 而上游盈利延续拖累。整体看，工业企业"量好于价"特征延续。 往后看，中美贸易谈判阶段性缓和，高频指向新一轮"抢出口"效应已启动， 前期受关税政策扰动短暂积压的订单需求，或在 5-6 月豁免期内集中释放、出 货 ...