Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the technology sector in A-shares, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [35]. Core Insights - The delivery of Broadcom's Tomahawk 6 (TH6) switch chip marks a significant breakthrough in AI infrastructure, enhancing network capabilities and addressing bottlenecks in AI computing [17][19]. - The communication industry has shown strong performance, with a 5.27% increase in the index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.40 percentage points [9][11]. - Broadcom's Q2 FY25 financial results indicate a 20% year-on-year revenue growth, driven primarily by the strong performance of its AI business [23][24]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The communication industry comprises 124 stocks with a total market value of 48,971.71 billion and a circulating market value of 21,813.38 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 7.2%, 2.2%, and 30.5% respectively, while the relative performance is 5.5%, 4.7%, and 22.7% [3]. Market Review - The communication sector has outperformed both the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices this week, with notable stock performances including Huamai Technology (+33.74%) and ST Zhongjia (+33.33%) [6][14]. Broadcom TH6 Chip Delivery - The TH6 chip offers a switching capacity of 102.4 Tbps, doubling the current market standard and increasing throughput by six times compared to its predecessor [17][18]. Financial Analysis of Broadcom - Broadcom's Q2 FY25 revenue reached 15 billion USD, with AI business revenue at 4.4 billion USD, reflecting a 46% year-on-year increase [23][24]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom for operators, and New Yisheng, Tianfu Communication, and Zhongji Xuchuang for optical modules and chips [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [36]. Core Insights - The computer industry has entered a rebound phase, with significant developments in AI technology and strategic mergers, particularly the merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang, which is expected to create a leading player in the domestic computing power sector [7][18]. - The report highlights the acceleration of mergers and acquisitions in the industry, driven by policy support and the need for vertical integration in the "chip-server" sector [9][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming events in June, which are expected to catalyze the commercialization of AI technologies and boost the technology market [7][18]. Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoint - The computer index rose by 3.26% from June 3 to June 6, outperforming the ChiNext index by 0.94 percentage points, ranking 4th among 30 sectors [14]. - Key stocks that performed well include Huijin Co. (up 50.54%), Qingyun Technology-U (up 38.27%), and Zhongdian Xilong (up 32.72%) [7][14]. Market Performance Review - The report notes that the overall A-share market experienced a net outflow of 69.06 billion yuan, while the computer sector saw a minor net outflow of 15.6 million yuan during the same period [15]. Strategic Mergers and Acquisitions - The merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang is positioned as a significant event, potentially creating a "carrier-level" enterprise in the domestic computing power field, with a combined market value exceeding 400 billion yuan [18][19]. - The report outlines the supportive policies for mergers and acquisitions, including the "New National Nine Articles" and "Science and Technology Innovation Board Eight Articles," which encourage industry consolidation [9][24]. Investment Recommendations and Related Stocks - The report suggests focusing on key players in various segments, including: - Chips: Haiguang Information, Cambrian, Longxin Zhongke, and Jingjia Micro [26]. - Servers: China Great Wall, Zhongke Shuguang, Unisplendour, Inspur Information, and Digital China [26]. - Operating Systems: China Software, Chengmai Technology, and Kirin Software [26]. - Databases: Dameng Data, Haimass Data, and Tai Chi Software [26].

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Volume Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market timing based on trading volume dynamics[10][64] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a neutral stance for the short term[10][64] 2. Model Name: Low Volatility Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model assesses market timing by analyzing low volatility trends in the market[10][64] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a neutral stance for the short term[10][64] 3. Model Name: Institutional Feature Model (Dragon-Tiger List) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses institutional trading features from the Dragon-Tiger list to predict market movements[10][64] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bearish outlook for the short term[10][64] 4. Model Name: Feature Volume Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages specific volume features to predict market trends[10][64] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bearish outlook for the short term[10][64] 5. Model Name: Intelligent CSI 300 Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model applies intelligent algorithms to predict movements in the CSI 300 index[10][64] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bullish outlook for the short term[10][64] 6. Model Name: Intelligent CSI 500 Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model applies intelligent algorithms to predict movements in the CSI 500 index[10][64] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bearish outlook for the short term[10][64] 7. Model Name: Limit-Up/Down Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market timing based on the frequency of limit-up and limit-down events[11][65] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bullish outlook for the mid-term[11][65] 8. Model Name: Calendar Effect Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model incorporates calendar-based patterns to predict market movements[11][65] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a neutral stance for the mid-term[11][65] 9. Model Name: Long-Term Momentum Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates long-term market trends using momentum indicators[12][66] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a neutral stance across all broad-based indices for the long term[12][66] 10. Model Name: A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model integrates multiple signals to provide a comprehensive market timing prediction[13][67] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bearish outlook for the A-share market[13][67] 11. Model Name: A-Share Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on the CSI 2000 index, combining various timing signals[13][67] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a neutral stance for the A-share market[13][67] 12. Model Name: Turnover-to-Volatility Model (Hong Kong Market) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market timing in the Hong Kong market by analyzing turnover relative to volatility[14][68] - **Model Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bullish outlook for the mid-term[14][68] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Volume Model - **Short-Term Signal**: Neutral[10][64] 2. Low Volatility Model - **Short-Term Signal**: Neutral[10][64] 3. Institutional Feature Model (Dragon-Tiger List) - **Short-Term Signal**: Bearish[10][64] 4. Feature Volume Model - **Short-Term Signal**: Bearish[10][64] 5. Intelligent CSI 300 Model - **Short-Term Signal**: Bullish[10][64] 6. Intelligent CSI 500 Model - **Short-Term Signal**: Bearish[10][64] 7. Limit-Up/Down Model - **Mid-Term Signal**: Bullish[11][65] 8. Calendar Effect Model - **Mid-Term Signal**: Neutral[11][65] 9. Long-Term Momentum Model - **Long-Term Signal**: Neutral across all broad-based indices[12][66] 10. A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model - **Comprehensive Signal**: Bearish[13][67] 11. A-Share Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model - **Comprehensive Signal**: Neutral[13][67] 12. Turnover-to-Volatility Model (Hong Kong Market) - **Mid-Term Signal**: Bullish[14][68]

行业研究 非银行金融 2025 年 06 月 07 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 金融资金面跟踪：量化周报（2025/06/02~2025/06/06） 推荐（维持） 成交量有所提升，基差总体有所收敛 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：刘潇伟 邮箱：liuxiaowei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525020001 上周量化私募总体正超额。上周样本量化私募收益及超额如下：1）300 增强策略周 /月/年初以来平均收益分别为-0.4%/+3%/+1.3%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为 +0.6%/+1%/+4.5%；2）500 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为+0.7%/+3.5%/+5.6%， 周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为+0.2%/+2.4%/+9.4%；3）A500 增强策略周/月/年初以来平 均收益分别为-0.4%/+3.1%/+8.9%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为+0.6%/+1.3%/+12.5%； 4）1000 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为 ...

Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding the expectation of 130,000[2] - Job growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and healthcare services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and finance (+13,000)[2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate from 62.6% to 62.4%[4] Wage Growth Insights - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-on-year growth was 3.9%, up from a revised 3.8%[3] - The average weekly hours worked remained at 34.3 hours, indicating stable labor income growth[3] - Wage growth is crucial for protecting consumer purchasing power, especially for low- and middle-income groups, amid inflation concerns[5] Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8%[3] - The anticipated number of rate cuts for the year decreased from 2.1 to 1.8, and the year-end policy rate expectation rose from 3.795% to 3.886%[3] - Following the report, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05% and the Nasdaq up 1.2%, indicating a rebound in risk appetite[3]

Employment Data Summary - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding the expectation of 130,000[2] - Job growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and healthcare services (+87,000), leisure and hospitality (+48,000), and finance (+13,000) while other sectors experienced job losses[2][25] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate dropping from 62.6% to 62.4%[4][29] Wage Growth Insights - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-over-year growth was 3.9%, up from a revised 3.8%[3][34] - The increase in wages is crucial for protecting the purchasing power of low- and middle-income consumers amid inflation concerns[5][19] Market Reactions - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 61.3% to 51.8%[3][39] - Following the employment report, U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, Nasdaq up 1.2%, and S&P 500 up 1.03%[3][39] Employment Trends - The employment diffusion index fell to 50% for the month, indicating a decline in the breadth of job growth across sectors[4][24] - The total number of jobs added in the previous two months was revised down by 95,000, indicating a trend of slowing job growth[2][21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [21]. Core Insights - The insurance index rose by 1.03%, outperforming the market by 0.15 percentage points, with notable individual stock performances such as Xinhua (+5.94%) and Taiping (+5.64%) [2]. - China Ping An plans to issue HKD 11.765 billion in convertible bonds, with an initial conversion price of HKD 55.02 per share, aimed at supporting business development and capital needs [3][4]. - As of Q1 2025, Ping An's solvency ratios were 225% for comprehensive solvency and 189% for core solvency, indicating a strong capital position [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance sector showed a mixed performance with individual stocks varying significantly, where Xinhua and Taiping led the gains while Sunshine and Zhong An faced declines [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield was 1.65%, down by 2 basis points from the previous week [2]. Company Developments - China Taiping announced a new private equity fund with a target size of RMB 50 billion, focusing on state-owned enterprise reforms [3]. - Ping An Asset Management received regulatory approval to establish a private fund management company, targeting a first-phase fund size of RMB 30 billion [3]. Financial Metrics - As of June 3, 2025, the closing price of Ping An's H shares was HKD 46.45, with the proposed convertible bond's conversion price exceeding this by HKD 18.45, reflecting confidence in future stock price growth [5]. - The new business value (NBV) for Ping An increased by 35% year-on-year, with significant growth expected from the bancassurance channel [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the short term due to performance pressures but anticipates a recovery in the medium to long term as the industry adapts to interest rate changes and improves operational quality [5]. - Current price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for key companies are provided, with Ping An rated at 1.04 PB and a strong buy recommendation [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on the potential growth in the gout medication market and ongoing drug development [11][18]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is currently undervalued, with public funds showing low allocation to this sector. The report anticipates a recovery driven by macroeconomic factors and significant product launches in the industry by 2025 [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative drugs, particularly in the gout treatment space, highlighting the shift from quantity to quality in drug development [11][20]. - The report identifies several key companies and products to watch, including innovative drug developers and medical device manufacturers, suggesting a diversified investment approach [11][12][18]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes that the CITIC pharmaceutical index rose by 1.22%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.34 percentage points, ranking 16th among 30 sectors [8]. - The top-performing stocks in the pharmaceutical sector include Yiming Pharmaceutical and Wanbangde, while the worst performers include Longjin Retreat and Huasen Pharmaceutical [8]. Gout Treatment Market - The report highlights the significant market potential for gout medications, with a projected market size of approximately 1.821 billion yuan in 2024. The report notes that the market for febuxostat is expected to decline due to its inclusion in national procurement [20]. - The report outlines the two main therapeutic approaches for gout: inhibiting uric acid production and promoting uric acid excretion, with key drugs identified for each approach [20][21]. Innovative Drug Development - The report provides an overview of ongoing clinical trials for gout medications, particularly focusing on URAT1 inhibitors, which are currently the most promising targets in drug development [22][35]. - It highlights the progress of SHR4640, a URAT1 inhibitor developed by Hengrui Medicine, which has shown promising results in clinical trials and is expected to be the first domestic URAT1 inhibitor to be approved [26]. Medical Devices and Equipment - The report discusses the recovery of the medical device market, particularly imaging equipment, which is expected to see significant growth due to ongoing procurement processes and government subsidies [42]. - It emphasizes the importance of domestic manufacturers in the medical device sector, particularly in the context of increasing competition and the need for innovation [42][43]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong pipelines and innovative products, including those in the pharmaceutical and medical device sectors, to capitalize on the anticipated growth in the industry [11][12][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on the potential growth in the gout medication market and ongoing drug development [11]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is currently undervalued, with public funds showing low allocation to this sector. The report anticipates a recovery driven by macroeconomic factors and significant product launches in the industry by 2025 [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative drugs, particularly those that can transition from quantity to quality, highlighting the need to focus on differentiated products and international pipelines [11]. - The gout medication market is identified as a "blue ocean" with significant growth potential, driven by the high prevalence of hyperuricemia and gout in China [18][20]. Market Overview - The report notes that the overall prevalence of hyperuricemia in China is approximately 13.3%, affecting around 177 million people, while gout affects about 14.66 million individuals [17]. - The market for gout medications is projected to reach approximately 1.821 billion yuan in 2024, with significant contributions from drugs like febuxostat and probenecid [20]. Drug Development Landscape - The report outlines the current landscape of gout treatments, categorizing them into two main mechanisms: uric acid synthesis inhibitors and uric acid excretion promoters [20]. - Several innovative drugs are in various stages of clinical development, with a focus on URAT1 inhibitors, which are currently the most promising targets in gout treatment [21][22]. - The report highlights the progress of SHR4640, a URAT1 inhibitor developed by Heng Rui Medicine, which has shown promising results in clinical trials and is expected to be the first domestic URAT1 inhibitor to be approved [26]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong pipelines in innovative drug development, particularly those targeting gout and related conditions, such as BeiGene, Innovent, and others [11]. - It also recommends monitoring the progress of medical device companies that are benefiting from policy support and market recovery, particularly in imaging and home healthcare devices [42][43]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the pharmaceutical and medical device sectors present significant investment opportunities, driven by innovation, market recovery, and favorable demographic trends [11][42].

综合资金缺口看，刚性因素中，6 月一般存款增长冻结的准备金规模或在 2256 亿元附近，货币发行及非金融机构存款或小幅消耗流动性 1152 亿元左右；工 具到期方面，1.2 万亿的买断式逆回购到期，6 月已前置操作 1 万亿，关注后 续是否有"加场"操作，MLF 到期量在 1820 亿元，规模相对有限，若月末资 金压力增大，或依旧是延续超额续作的思路。财政因素中，6 月财政支出有所 加大，但或主要体现在季末，叠加政府债券发行规模不小，政府存款对于流动 性的补充或在 4000 亿元附近，略低于去年水平。合计 6 月流动性缺口在 1.4 万亿附近，考虑 1 万亿买断式逆回购已经投放，整体资金缺口压力相对有限。 跨半年央行多以呵护为主，预计资金大幅收敛的风险相对可控。6 月初 DR007 中枢较利率的偏离度在 15bp 附近，DR001 接近 1.4%水平，买断式逆回购前置 操作，整体有利于稳定资金预期。从历史情况看，以往 6 月除 2020 年处于货 币政策收紧区间，资金价格明显走高；以及 2019 年 6 月包商银行接管事件爆 发后，央行为维稳大量投放流动性，DR007 资金价格有所下行外，其余年份 DR007 ...