Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - In November, the online apparel and accessories sector experienced a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, with an increase in growth rate compared to October. The average temperature in November was 4.2°C, which is 0.9°C higher than the historical average but 0.9°C lower than last year, indicating robust sales despite lower temperatures [2][11] - The outdoor segment continues to lead the industry with brands like Descente, Kelong, and Aon running year-on-year growth rates of 32.8%, 32.4%, and 21.4% respectively. In the home textile and menswear sectors, brands like Luolai Life and Bosideng saw year-on-year growth of 16.0% and 8.8% respectively [2][11] - The report highlights the approval of two animal collagen products by the National Medical Products Administration, marking significant advancements in concentration, implant materials, and indications [3][13] Industry Data Tracking - In October, apparel retail sales grew by 6.3% year-on-year, with the growth rate improving from September. This was attributed to seasonal promotions and a recovery in offline store traffic due to reduced extreme weather [4][19] - The cosmetics sector also showed resilience, with retail sales increasing by 9.6% year-on-year, reflecting a 11.6 percentage point increase from September [4][29] - The jewelry retail sector continued to recover, with a year-on-year growth of 9.6% in October, supported by rising gold prices and increased regional consumer enthusiasm [4][19] Investment Recommendations - For the apparel sector, Hai Lan Home is recommended for its innovative urban outlet expansion and strong profitability, while Li Ning is expected to see a turning point in 2025 [5][27] - In the beauty and personal care segment, recommendations include Juzi Biological for its strong data resilience and Jinbo Biological for its anticipated new product launches [5][31] - The gold and jewelry sector is recommended for brands with strong market presence, such as Laopu Gold, due to the favorable gold price trends [5][31]

新房景气度下行趋缓，二手房景气度底部企稳，成交量均出现小幅回落。政策方面，经济工作会议再提"去库存"，重 点是"因城施策"，一线城市重心是"优供给"，三四线城市侧重于"控增量"、"去库存"。 风险提示 房价下行幅度和速度超预期，房企债务风险超预期，宏观经济超预期下行。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济点评 新房方面，本周(12.6-12.12)景气度下行趋缓，新房销售面积小幅回落，47 城新房成交量环比-9.8%，同比-44.9%， 主要受季节性因素影响，降幅较上周走阔。 图表1：新房成交面积保持稳定 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1W 2W 3W 4W 5W 6W 7W 8W 9W 10W 11W 12W 13W 14W 15W 16W 17W 18W 19W 20W 21W 22W 23W 24W 25W 26W 27W 28W 29W 30W 31W 32W 33W 34W 35W 36W 37W 38W 39W 40W 41W 42W 43W 44W 45W 46W 47W 48W 49W 50W 51W 52W 47城新 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Oil prices have weakened this week due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply-demand dynamics, with WTI closing at $57.44 and Brent at $62.55, reflecting declines of $2.64 and $2.23 respectively [3][14][16] - The EIA report indicates a decrease in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories by 1.812 million barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 639.7 thousand barrels [3][14] - The average operating rate of domestic refineries rose by 0.4% to 94.5%, with U.S. oil production reaching a record high of 13.853 million barrels per day [3][14] - The polyester sector is expected to see a decline in weaving operating rates due to some factories planning early holidays, while PTA processing fees remain low at 165.86 yuan/ton [3][14] - Ethylene prices in the domestic market have shown a slight decline, with the average price at 6172 yuan/ton, while propylene prices have increased to 6090 yuan/ton [3][14] Summary by Sections Market Review - The petrochemical sector underperformed against the Shanghai Composite Index, with a decline of 3.52% [9][10] - The oil and gas resource index fell by 1.17%, while the refining and chemical index dropped by 3.70% [9][10] Oil and Gas Sector - Oil prices are under pressure from geopolitical events, including the situation in Venezuela and potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine [3][14][16] - U.S. oil production is projected to reach record levels, contributing to concerns about oversupply in the market [3][14][16] Refining and Chemical Sector - The average refining margin for major refineries increased to 645.47 yuan/ton, while independent refineries saw margins at 443 yuan/ton [3][13] - The processing fee for PTA remains low, indicating challenges in the polyester sector [3][14] Ethylene and Propylene Market - Ethylene prices have decreased slightly, while propylene prices have shown a modest increase, reflecting mixed market conditions [3][14]

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoint Among AA-rated urban investment bonds with the highest discount rates, "25 Gaomi 01" had the largest deviation in valuation price; among the top 50 bonds with the largest net price declines, "24 SDIC MTN002" had the largest deviation; among the top 50 bonds with the largest net price increases, "23 Vanke MTN002" had the largest deviation; among the top 50 Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with the largest net price increases, "25 ABC Tier 2 Capital Bond 01B(BC)" had the largest deviation [2]. 2. Summary by Directory Discount - Leading AA Urban Investment Bonds (Subject Rating) - The report listed 40 AA-rated urban investment bonds with high discount rates, including "25 Gaomi 01" with a 4.27-year remaining term, a valuation price deviation of -0.28%, a valuation net price of 105.07 yuan, and a valuation yield of 3.93% [4]. Top 50 Bonds with the Largest Net Price Declines - The report presented 50 bonds with significant net price drops, such as "24 SDIC MTN002" with a 28.76-year remaining term, a valuation price deviation of -0.40%, a valuation net price of 98.10 yuan, and a valuation yield of 2.58% [6]. Top 50 Bonds with the Largest Net Price Increases - It included 50 bonds experiencing substantial net price increases. For example, "23 Vanke MTN002" had a 0.42-year remaining term, a valuation price deviation of 2.30%, a valuation net price of 16.85 yuan, and a valuation yield of 1067.74% [9]. Top 50 Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds with the Largest Net Price Increases - The report listed 50 Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with large net price increases, like "25 ABC Tier 2 Capital Bond 01B(BC)" with a 9.53-year remaining term, a valuation price deviation of 0.29%, a valuation net price of 96.65 yuan, and a valuation yield of 2.50% [13].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November, the new social financing scale was not low, mainly driven by corporate credit and off - balance - sheet financing. However, the credit structure remained poor, with bill financing reaching a record high for the same period, corporate medium - and long - term loans at the lowest level since 2016 for the same period, and both short - term and medium - and long - term household loans at record lows for the same period. The credit demand of the real sector was significantly weak. Looking ahead, the net financing scale of government bonds in December may decline slightly month - on - month, still dragging down social financing. The intensive implementation of 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instrument support projects from October to December may boost social financing to some extent, but the weak credit demand and the banks' desire to reserve projects for January next year may cause significant disturbances to social financing [6][33]. 3. Summary by Content Social Financing Aggregate - In November, the stock growth rate of social financing remained flat at 8.5%. The new social financing in November was 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 159.7 billion yuan year - on - year. Compared with the average of 2.3 trillion yuan in the same period of the past five years, the new social financing scale in November this year was not much different from the historical average, falling at the upper edge of the new scale in the same period of the past five years [2][8]. Factors Contributing to the Increase in Social Financing - Off - balance - sheet financing was one of the main contributors to the year - on - year increase in social financing this month. In November, trust loans and undiscounted bank acceptance bills in the off - balance - sheet financing items both increased year - on - year, supporting social financing. The new trust loan scale in November has generally declined compared with October since 2020, but this month's trend was anti - seasonal, possibly related to the recently launched new policy - based financial instrument support projects. In addition, corporate bonds were another supporting item for the increase in social financing this month. In November, new corporate bonds increased by 178.8 billion yuan to 416.9 billion yuan, the highest level in the same period since 2020, and were the only item with an increase in direct financing projects [3][15][18]. Credit Structure - There was a divergence between the total social financing and the credit structure. Although the overall performance of social financing in November was not bad, credit was still weak. Corporate sector credit increased by 360 billion yuan year - on - year to 610 billion yuan, mainly driven by short - term corporate loans and bill financing, while medium - and long - term corporate loans decreased year - on - year. Household sector credit had a negative growth for the first time in the same period in history [4][20]. - New medium - and long - term corporate loans were at the lowest level in the same period since 2016. The reasons for the year - on - year increase in corporate sector credit this year were the low base of corporate sector credit in November 2024 and the simultaneous efforts of short - term corporate loans and bill financing in November this year, which pushed up the corporate credit scale this month. In November, short - term corporate loans increased by 110 billion yuan year - on - year to 100 billion yuan, higher than the average of 50.2 billion yuan in the same period of the past five years. The new short - term corporate loan scale this year has always been at the upper edge of the historical same period, possibly because although the economy was sluggish, enterprises still needed a certain amount of funds for business turnover, and banks may also have vigorously issued short - term corporate loans at the end of the quarter to boost the scale. The new bill financing scale in November was at a record high for the same period, indicating that corporate credit issuance was still weak, and bill financing was used to increase the total credit scale. Medium - and long - term corporate loans decreased by 40 billion yuan year - on - year to 170 billion yuan, the lowest level in the same period since 2016, and the growth rate of the balance of medium - and long - term corporate loans further declined by 0.05 percentage points to 7.8%, having declined for 28 consecutive months [4][20][21]. - Household sector credit had a negative growth for the first time in the same period in history. In November, household sector credit decreased by 476.3 billion yuan year - on - year to - 206.3 billion yuan. Among them, short - term household loans decreased by 178.8 billion yuan year - on - year to - 215.8 billion yuan, also setting a record low for the same period. Contrary to short - term corporate loans, short - term household loans have basically been at the lower edge of the historical same period this year, and have even set record lows for the same period many times, possibly indicating weak household consumption willingness against the background of unstable income expectations. Medium - and long - term household loans decreased by 290 billion yuan year - on - year to 1 billion yuan, also the lowest value for the same period. The year - on - year growth rate of the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in November declined to - 30.91%, the lowest level since May 2024, while the growth rate of the commercial housing sales area in the same period last year was 11.6%, indicating that current household home - buying willingness was also weak [5][24]. M1 and M2 - The growth rate of M1 continued to decline by 1.3 percentage points. In November this year, the monthly incremental scale of M1 was 0.89 trillion yuan, while the incremental scale of M1 in November last year was 2.15 trillion yuan. As the impact of the ban on manual interest compensation had gradually dissipated and the low - base effect faded, the growth rate of M1 continued to decline by 1.3 percentage points to 4.9% in November [6][25]. - Fiscal expenditure had limited support for M2. In terms of deposits, both household and corporate deposits decreased year - on - year in November, indicating that deposit creation was also not ideal against the background of sluggish loans. At the same time, non - bank deposits decreased by 100 billion yuan year - on - year to 80 billion yuan, and the new scale was significantly lower than that in the same period since 2022. Historically, the growth rate of the non - bank deposit balance had a certain similarity with the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index. The stock market had a slight correction in November, which may have led to a low new non - bank deposit scale in November. In summary, the growth rate of M2 further declined by 0.2 percentage points to 8% in November. In addition, fiscal deposits decreased by 190 billion yuan year - on - year to - 50 billion yuan. The fiscal expenditure intensity was generally weaker than that from 2021 to 2023 and stronger than that in 2024, but its support for the M2 growth rate was limited [6][30].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The Central Economic Work Conference communiqué is consistent with the Political Bureau meeting in tone and core content but has more details and incremental information compared to last year [3][5]. - Service consumption and optimized stock investment may contribute to the economic "good start" next year, but their sustainability is uncertain due to limited incremental fiscal space [7]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Situation Assessment - The assessment of the situation shows more confidence. This year's conference used a more neutral description of the external environment, and internal problems are considered solvable. The priority of risk - prevention work has dropped [5]. Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy shows more determination. The tone of "more proactive" is the same as last year, but details suggest that the total fiscal space may not change significantly next year, and some fiscal preferential policies may be selectively phased out [5]. Monetary Policy - Monetary policy mentions "dual cuts" again. It emphasizes "flexible and efficient use" of policy tools like reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts, with a lower timeliness requirement than last year [6]. Expanding Domestic Demand - "Adhering to domestic demand leadership" is the top priority. The focus of consumption policy is on optimizing the structure and service consumption, and service consumption is expected to be the incremental part next year [6]. Investment - The requirement for investment to "stop falling and stabilize" is unusual. Next year's investment funds will come from optimizing central budgetary investment, local government special bonds, and continuing to use new policy - based financial tools (500 billion new financial tools) [7]. Industry Emphasis - The conference emphasizes "Artificial Intelligence +", requiring "deepening and expanding" and "improving governance" for relevant industries [7]. Market Regulation - The implementation of "anti - involution" has increased. The construction of a unified national market and the in - depth rectification of "involution - style competition" are key tasks, which will drive a positive cycle and improve corporate profitability [8]. Real Estate and Debt - Real estate is placed in risk - prevention work, indicating possible incremental policies. The conference also requires actively and orderly resolving local government debt risks, with debt resolution remaining a key task for local governments next year [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company demonstrates confidence in its future development by repurchasing 8.14 million shares at an average price of 12.26 HKD, totaling 99.77 million HKD [2]. - The Hilo product line is gaining traction, with strong promotional efforts from British American Tobacco (BAT) leading to a 50% retention rate among traditional and heated tobacco consumers, which supports future sales growth [3]. - The core vaping business is recovering, benefiting from regulatory crackdowns on illegal e-cigarettes in the U.S. and a shift in European markets towards compliant products. BAT expects revenue recovery in the U.S. market by the second half of 2025, with a projected market share increase [4]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the expanding compliant vaping market in Europe and the U.S., with a focus on accelerating the global promotion of Hilo products by 2026 [4]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.22, 0.37, and 0.59 CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 53, 31, and 20 [5]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 11,168 million CNY in 2023 to 20,462 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.48% [10]. - The net profit is projected to recover from 1,303 million CNY in 2024 to 3,656 million CNY by 2027, indicating a significant growth trajectory [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the primary supply rhythm and secondary trading characteristics [9][20]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Local Government Bond Supply and Trading Tracking 1. Primary Supply Rhythm - From December 1st to 5th, 2025, local government bonds issued a total of 108.7 billion yuan, including 39 billion yuan in new special bonds and 17 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds [9]. - "Ordinary/Project Revenue" and "Repayment of Existing Debts" are the main investment areas for special bond funds [9]. - As of December 5th, 2025, 1.1 billion yuan of special refinancing special bonds have been issued in December, accounting for 30.5% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [9]. - The average issuance interest rate of local bonds has increased marginally. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds have widened to 23.6BP, 24.5BP, and 19.2BP respectively [16]. - In December, Tianjin, Shandong, Shaanxi and other provinces are the main regions for local bond issuance. The issuance scale of local bonds within 7 years in Tianjin reached 19.05 billion yuan, and the average coupon rate of local government bonds in Henan is close to 2.5% [19]. 2. Secondary Trading Characteristics - Last week, the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indices fell 0.27% and 0.69% respectively month - on - month, with the decline similar to that of the same - term credit bonds [20]. - The trading activity of Henan government bonds increased, with a week - on - week increase of 123 transactions, while the trading volume of Jiangxi local bonds decreased significantly [20]. - The average trading terms of Liaoning and Jilin government bonds have been significantly extended, reaching 24.0 years and 24.2 years respectively, an increase of 11.0 years and 12.2 years compared to last week. The average trading yields of Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong government bonds rose to around 2.4% [22].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 109.78, based on a PE valuation of 30 times for 2025 [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in China's beauty and personal care industry, with a multi-brand matrix covering skincare, baby care, and hair care segments. The main brand, Han Shu, has rapidly expanded its presence on platforms like Douyin, achieving significant revenue growth [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 67.93 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 62.1%, with a net profit of CNY 7.81 billion, up 69.4% [14]. - The growth strategy is supported by a strong brand operation methodology, focusing on market-driven brand positioning, precise consumer targeting, and innovative marketing strategies [3][39]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Highlights - The company has a multi-brand strategy with a focus on online sales, achieving nearly 93% online sales in the first half of 2025. The main brand, Han Shu, is projected to generate revenue of CNY 55.91 billion in 2024, a growth of 80.90% year-on-year [2]. - New brands like Yi Ye are experiencing rapid growth, with projected annual growth rates of 498% for 2023/2024 and 146% for the first half of 2025 [2]. Investment Logic - The company is expected to see significant growth in its three main segments: skincare, baby care, and hair care. Han Shu is projected to exceed CNY 10 billion in revenue within three years, while Yi Ye is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of over 50% [3]. - The baby care brand Yi Ye is leveraging a unique "medical research co-creation" model, while the hair care segment is expected to produce major brands through clear positioning and effective marketing strategies [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The forecasted EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is CNY 2.68, CNY 3.33, and CNY 4.09 respectively, with a projected valuation of 24 times for 2026. The strong growth potential of the multi-brand strategy supports the "Buy" rating [4]. - The company is expected to achieve a return on equity (ROE) of 41.92% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Among the bonds with discounted transactions, "25 Yungang Y4" had a large deviation in the valuation price. Among the bonds with rising net prices, "25 Datong C3" had a relatively high deviation in the valuation price. Among the Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with rising net prices, "22 Bank of Communications Tier 2 Capital Bond 02B" had a large deviation in the valuation price; among the commercial financial bonds with rising net prices, "25 Agricultural Bank of China TLAC Non - capital Bond 02C(BC)" had a relatively high deviation in the valuation price. Among the bonds with a transaction yield higher than 5%, real - estate bonds ranked high [2]. - The changes in the valuation yield of credit bonds were mainly distributed in the [-5,0) interval. The transaction terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the highest proportion of discounted transactions for varieties within 0.5 years. The transaction terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, with the highest proportion of discounted transactions for varieties within 1 year. In terms of industries, bonds in the national defense and military industry had the largest average deviation in valuation prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Charts Chart 1: Discounted Transaction Tracking - The table listed 30 bonds with large discounts, including "25 Yungang Y4", "25 Dongfang K1", etc., with information on the remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, and transaction scale. The industries involved included transportation, non - financial finance, and urban investment [4]. Chart 2: Tracking of Bonds with Rising Net Prices - The table showed 43 bonds with large positive deviations, such as "25 Datong C3", "25 Raofa 02", etc. It provided details on the remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, and transaction scale. The industries included non - financial finance, comprehensive, and public utilities [6]. Chart 3: Tracking of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Transactions - The table presented 40 Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, including "22 Bank of Communications Tier 2 Capital Bond 02B", "22 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Tier 2 Capital Bond 04B", etc., with information on the remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, bank classification, and transaction scale [7]. Chart 4: Tracking of Commercial Financial Bond Transactions - The table listed 29 commercial financial bonds, such as "25 Agricultural Bank of China TLAC Non - capital Bond 02C(BC)", "24 Agricultural Bank of China TLAC Non - capital Bond 01B(BC)", etc., providing details on the remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, bank classification, and transaction scale [8]. Chart 5: Bonds with a Transaction Yield Higher than 5% - The table showed 20 bonds with a high - yield transaction, including "21 Vanke 06", "23 Vanke 01", etc., with information on the remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, and transaction scale. The industries involved included real estate, steel, and non - financial finance [10]. Chart 6: Distribution of Valuation Deviations in Credit Bond Transactions on the Day - The chart showed the distribution of changes in the valuation yield of credit bonds on the day, with the intervals [-10,-5), [-5,0), (0,5], and (5,10], and the number of bonds and transaction scale in each interval [13]. Chart 7: Distribution of Transaction Terms of Non - financial Credit Bonds on the Day - The chart presented the distribution of transaction terms of non - financial credit bonds on the day, including intervals such as within 0.5 years, 0.5 - 1 year, etc., and the corresponding transaction scale [15]. Chart 8: Distribution of Transaction Terms of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds on the Day - The chart showed the distribution of transaction terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds on the day, including intervals such as within 1 year, 1 - 1.5 years, etc., and the corresponding transaction scale [18]. Chart 9: Discounted Transaction Ratio and Transaction Scale of Non - financial Credit Bonds in Each Industry - The chart displayed the average valuation price deviation and transaction scale of non - financial credit bonds in various industries, including petroleum and petrochemicals, real estate, etc. The national defense and military industry had the largest average valuation price deviation [20].