Economic Indicators - The China Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers Index (EPMI) for August is 47.8, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a marginal improvement in economic sentiment[4] - The production price index (PPI) is expected to decline by approximately 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year in August, reflecting weak overall factory prices despite a significant year-on-year improvement due to lower technical levels last year[6] Financial Data - From January to July, the real sector received approximately 19 trillion yuan in funding, an increase of 2.7 trillion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by fiscal fund disbursements[10] - New deposits from residents amounted to 9.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 720 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards more liquid deposits[10] Market Trends - In the wake of new housing policies in Beijing, the year-on-year decline in commodity housing sales has narrowed, with second-hand housing sales showing a positive year-on-year growth[17] - Several small and medium-sized banks have lowered deposit rates, with rates for various terms adjusted down by 10 to 20 basis points[14] Risks - Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, tariff increases, and global supply chain adjustments pose risks of export volatility and declining corporate profits[3] - Changes in global geopolitical situations and international market fluctuations may continue to impact commodity prices and related industries[3]

Group 1: Geopolitical Context - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Tianjin Summit is the largest since the organization's inception, with over 20 foreign leaders attending, including Russia's President Putin and India's Prime Minister Modi[2] - The SCO has become a fundamental aspect of China's foreign diplomacy, especially as member countries face increasing pressure from the U.S., with tariffs exceeding 25% imposed on several SCO nations[2][3] Group 2: Economic Cooperation - In 2024, trade between China and SCO member countries reached $512.4 billion, accounting for approximately 8.3% of China's total foreign trade, indicating strong economic ties[19] - China is the largest trading partner for several SCO countries, including Russia and Kazakhstan, which are also key suppliers of energy resources, enhancing China's energy security[19] Group 3: Summit Agenda - The Tianjin Summit will focus on four main topics: internationalization of the Renminbi, cooperation in machinery manufacturing, resource product collaboration, and emerging industry partnerships[3][20] - The summit aims to strengthen the complementary relationship between resource supply and industrial demand, while also exploring new opportunities in digital economy and green development[20][21]

Core Insights - The report evaluates whether the bond market has fallen out of a safety margin due to high risk appetite and significant changes in the relative performance of major asset classes [2][7] - The analysis is conducted from both internal interest rate assessments and cross-asset pricing perspectives [7] Internal Interest Rate Assessment - The policy interest rate provides a "safety margin" with the 10-year government bond yield and the 7-day reverse repo rate spread rising to 38 basis points, close to the year’s high [8][9] - The yield curve shows a steepening characteristic in the short term, while remaining relatively flat in the long term, with most spreads above the 70th percentile for the year [12][13] - The downward movement of bond yields aligns with other interest rates, with a central tendency of around 70 basis points for various rates since 2024 [14] Cross-Asset Pricing Assessment - The bond-stock pricing ratio is reverting towards the 3-year average, indicating a recovery in bond allocation value [21] - The current 10-year government bond yield is at the 13th percentile, while commodity prices are mostly between the 0-20th percentiles, suggesting a close pricing match [23] - Compared to high-stickiness asset prices, bonds have fallen out of a certain safety margin, as real estate and durable goods prices are near their lowest points since 2021 [23] - The bond-loan pricing ratio has shown some recovery, with the 5-year government bond yield returning to a central channel level [24] - The comparison with rental yields has slightly improved, with the 30-year government bond yield recovering to a positive spread over urban residential rental yields [31] Overall Conclusion - The bond pricing has shown a degree of recovery, particularly in the year-to-date perspective, with several pricing indicators returning to their yearly highs. However, market sentiment remains weak, and technical signals indicate a bearish trend, suggesting that buying opportunities may require patience until market sentiment fully releases [33]

Group 1 - The simulated portfolio continues to show negative returns, with the medium and short-term credit style portfolio experiencing smaller drawdowns compared to the corresponding interest rate style portfolio, while the long-term portfolio has seen significant declines [2][14] - In the interest rate style portfolio, the weekly returns for the deposit sinking and deposit bullet strategies were both -0.25%, while in the credit style portfolio, these strategies had smaller drawdowns with returns of -0.14% each [2][14] - The credit style deposit-heavy portfolio's weekly average return slightly rebounded to -0.14%, outperforming the corresponding interest rate style portfolio by 10.7 basis points, marking the strongest defensive strategy since late July [2][17] Group 2 - The credit strategy has created a certain yield space, with the secondary bond duration strategy's yield distance from the year's low exceeding 20 basis points [3][26] - The main strategy combinations have seen yields stop falling and start to rise, with the secondary bond duration strategy's weekly yield increasing by nearly 0.16 basis points, bringing the annualized yield to 2.02%, which is 22.3 basis points wider from the year's low [3][26] - The weekly yield contribution from the credit style portfolio remains in the range of -25% to -5%, with capital gains continuing to drag down returns [3][26] Group 3 - In the past four weeks, the medium and short-term perpetual bond heavy strategies have shown certain defensive attributes, with cumulative excess returns for the city investment short-term sinking, commercial bank bullet, and perpetual bond sinking strategies reaching 13.3 basis points, 7.2 basis points, and 6.6 basis points respectively [4][32] - The city investment heavy strategies have recently underperformed compared to the secondary perpetual heavy strategies, with the cumulative returns for the city investment duration and barbell strategies deviating from the benchmark by -10 basis points and -30 basis points respectively [4][32] - The short-end strategies have outperformed the benchmark, while the city investment sinking strategy's excess returns have fallen into negative territory [4][35]

Investment Rating - The report recommends investing in SF Holding, Hainan Airlines, and Southern Airlines due to their strong performance and market positioning [2][4]. Core Views - The express delivery sector is experiencing significant growth, with SF Express leading the way with a 34% increase in business volume in July. The overall express delivery market is expected to see price increases due to rising costs in grain-producing areas and the upcoming peak season [2]. - The logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. launching AI and robotics research initiatives to enhance operational efficiency [3]. - The aviation sector shows a positive trend, with domestic flights increasing by 3.07% year-on-year. Airlines are expected to benefit from supply-demand optimization, leading to potential fare increases and profit elasticity [4]. - The shipping sector is witnessing a recovery in oil transportation indices, with expectations of increased demand due to OPEC+ production adjustments and sanctions on Iran and India [5]. - The road and rail sectors are showing stable growth, with highway truck traffic increasing by 3.06% week-on-week, indicating a robust logistics environment [6][78]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In July, SF Express achieved a business volume growth of 34%, leading the industry. The total express delivery volume for the week of August 11-17 was approximately 3.523 billion pieces, with a year-on-year increase of 11.81% [2]. - The market shares for major players in July 2025 are as follows: SF Express (8.4%), Yunda (13.2%), YTO (15.8%), and Shentong (13.3%) [2]. Logistics - The chemical product price index is at 4024 points, down 10.3% year-on-year. The domestic sea freight price for liquid chemicals is 158 RMB/ton, down 8.4% year-on-year [3]. - Hai Chen Co. is focusing on AI and robotics to enhance logistics efficiency, indicating a shift towards smart logistics solutions [3]. Aviation - The average daily flight operations increased to 17,321 flights, a year-on-year increase of 4.18%. Domestic flights saw a 3.07% increase, while international flights increased by 11.87% compared to 2019 [4]. - The Brent crude oil price is at $67.73/barrel, reflecting a 2.85% increase week-on-week, which may impact airline operational costs [4][65]. Shipping - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1174.87 points, down 1.5% week-on-week and down 40.5% year-on-year. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is at 1415.36 points, down 3.1% week-on-week and down 52.2% year-on-year [5][21]. - The oil transportation index (BDTI) is at 1019 points, reflecting a 0.5% increase week-on-week and a 9.2% increase year-on-year [5][34]. Road and Rail - The national railway passenger volume in July was 455 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The railway freight volume was 452 million tons, up 4.5% year-on-year [78]. - The national highway freight traffic for the week of August 11-17 was 54.93 million vehicles, a week-on-week increase of 3.06% and a year-on-year increase of 4.65% [6][82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer continued to decline by 4 percentage points to 46%, with most indicators falling to varying degrees, except for the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile [2][14]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 25%, with 5 indicators in the over - heated range, 5 in the neutral range, and 10 in the cold range [3][18]. - Only the average percentile of trading heat increased slightly by 2 percentage points, while the average percentiles of institutional behavior, spread, and comparison ratio decreased [4][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer continued to decline by 4 percentage points to 46%. Most indicators fell, while the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile increased. High - congestion indicators include the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and the long - term Treasury bond trading volume ratio [2][14]. 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 25%. Among 20 micro - indicators, 5 were in the over - heated range, 5 in the neutral range, and 10 in the cold range. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate moved from the cold to the neutral range, while the fund duration and policy spread moved from the neutral to the cold range, and the allocation disk strength moved from the over - heated to the cold range [3][18]. 3.2.1. 1/10Y Treasury Bond Turnover Rate - In the trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 50%, the proportion in the neutral range rose to 33%, and the proportion in the cold range fell to 17%. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate percentile increased by 37 percentage points to 54% and moved from the cold to the neutral range, while other indicators such as the TL/T long - short ratio, the whole - market turnover rate, and the institutional leverage percentile declined [5][21]. 3.2.2. Fund Duration - In the institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 25%, the proportion in the neutral range decreased to 25%, and the proportion in the cold range increased to 50%. Except for the 10 - percentage - point increase in the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile, other indicators fell. The fund duration percentile decreased by 31 percentage points to 37% and moved from the neutral to the cold range, and the allocation disk strength percentile decreased by 33 percentage points to 39% and moved from the over - heated to the cold range [6][24]. 3.2.3. Policy Spread - The 3 - year Treasury bond yield increased significantly, and the policy spread widened from 1bp to 11bp, with the percentile decreasing by 34 percentage points to 13% and moving from the neutral to the cold range. The credit spread narrowed slightly by 2bp to 51bp, the Agricultural Development - China Development spread remained at 4bp, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened by 3bp to 5bp. The average spread of the three remained at 20bp, and its percentile increased slightly by 1 percentage point to 46%, still in the neutral range [7][31]. 3.2.4. Commodity Comparison Ratio Percentile - The proportion of comparison ratio indicators in the cold range remained at 100%. The stock - bond and commodity comparison ratio percentiles decreased by 4 and 1 percentage points to 23% and 0% respectively, while the real - estate comparison ratio percentile remained basically the same as the previous period [8][34].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The AI application landscape is evolving, with significant activity in overseas markets, particularly for models like Claude and Gemini, while domestic applications are stabilizing [3][11] - Samsung's HBM4 is expected to enter mass production by November or December, indicating competitive advancements in the high-end HBM market against SK Hynix [13][14] - NVIDIA's upcoming FY26Q2 earnings report is anticipated to show a revenue of $45.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 51.5%, with a focus on the manufacturing yield of their Blackwell architecture [15][18] - Google's Pixel 10 series, featuring the new Tensor G5 chip and Gemini Nano model, represents a significant upgrade aimed at enhancing user experience and AI capabilities [21][22] Summary by Sections AI Applications - The DeepSeek V3.1 model was released, introducing a mixed reasoning architecture that enhances task performance and efficiency, with a focus on compatibility with next-generation domestic chips [8][12] - The active user engagement in AI applications shows a notable increase for Claude, while Gemini and ChatGPT remain stable [11] HBM Market - Samsung's HBM4 samples have passed initial testing and are set for mass production, which could shift market dynamics as they adopt aggressive pricing strategies against SK Hynix [13][14] - Micron is also advancing in the HBM4 space, having delivered samples to key clients, indicating strong market demand [14] NVIDIA Financial Outlook - NVIDIA's revenue expectations for FY26Q2 are set at $45.5 billion, with a focus on the performance of their Blackwell architecture and potential impacts on gross margins due to manufacturing complexities [15][18] Google Pixel 10 Launch - The launch of Google's Pixel 10 series highlights advancements in AI integration, with the Tensor G5 chip enabling enhanced performance and new AI features aimed at improving user experience [21][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the virtual assets sector, particularly following the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, which has led to a rebound in virtual assets [1][3]. Core Insights - The enthusiasm for the revaluation of Chinese assets continues, with expectations of increased liquidity and valuation uplift for Chinese stocks, particularly in the context of upcoming earnings reports [3][16]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the gaming sector, projecting the Chinese gaming market to reach 29.1 billion yuan by July 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8.14% and a year-on-year growth of 4.62% [2][19]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing trends in blockchain and virtual assets, suggesting that institutions in Greater China will actively seek related investments in Hong Kong stocks [3][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Education Sector - The education index increased by 1.83%, underperforming compared to major indices like the CSI 300 and the SSE 50 [12]. - Key players such as New Oriental and TAL Education saw declines of 1.86% and 4.98%, respectively, indicating competitive pressures in the K12 education sector [12][19]. 2. Luxury Goods - The S&P Global Luxury Goods Index rose by 3.82%, with notable performances from high-end brands like Hermes and Richemont [19]. - The report notes a significant decline in new store openings in the luxury sector, particularly in non-first-tier cities, which saw a 48% drop [26]. 3. Coffee and Tea Drinks - The coffee sector remains robust, with a notable increase in consumer demand, while the tea drink segment faces increased competition [5][25]. - The report highlights the performance of various coffee brands, with Luckin Coffee opening new stores and expanding its market presence [30]. 4. E-commerce - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index showed a slight increase of 0.29%, with Pinduoduo and Dingdong Maicai leading in stock performance [31]. - Alibaba has restructured its business into four main divisions, aiming to enhance operational efficiency [35]. 5. Streaming Platforms - The report indicates a slight decline in the media index, with a focus on improving content supply for long-video platforms [32][40]. - The performance of major streaming services like iQIYI and Tencent Music varied, with iQIYI reporting a revenue decline of 11% [41]. 6. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $412.39 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices showing slight fluctuations [42]. - The report suggests a positive trend for virtual assets, with institutions increasingly entering the market [3][42]. 7. Real Estate Transactions - Recent data shows a continued decline in second-hand housing transactions in major cities, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate market [36]. 8. Automotive Services - The report notes a rise in losses among automotive dealers, with a 52.6% loss ratio reported for the first half of the year [5]. 9. Media and Entertainment - The report highlights the implementation of new policies aimed at enriching content supply for television platforms, which may improve the industry's outlook [40]. 10. Overall Market Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market sentiment and the performance of key sectors, particularly in light of macroeconomic conditions and regulatory changes [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.43 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 14.4%, with gross profit down 16.6% due to reduced client demand from financial institutions and increased market competition [2]. - Despite the revenue decline, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders after excluding non-recurring items was 190 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 41.9% [2]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 1.4 billion RMB, also down 15.0% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 59.8% to 180 million RMB [2]. - The best-performing business segments in the first half of 2025 were corporate finance, insurance core, and infrastructure IT product lines, with revenue growth of 4.9% and gross profit growth of 77.8% [3]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in its fundamentals in 2025, supported by the launch of the UF3.0 product and collaboration with Hong Kong brokers on virtual asset trading systems [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 5.98 billion, 6.21 billion, and 6.53 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of -9.2%, 3.9%, and 5.1% respectively [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.12 billion, 1.45 billion, and 1.50 billion RMB for the same period, with growth rates of 7.7%, 28.7%, and 3.5% respectively [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 64.8, 50.4, and 48.7 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the wind power sector, particularly for the complete machine segment, due to strong performance and recovery in profitability [6][12][13]. Core Insights - The wind power sector is experiencing a significant recovery, with Goldwind Technology reporting a strong half-year performance, achieving a revenue of 28.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.3% [6][7]. - The lithium battery sector is seeing a price increase in lithium hexafluorophosphate, with the market average price reaching 54,000 yuan per ton, up 1.89% from the previous week [24]. - The photovoltaic and energy storage sectors are optimistic, with ongoing administrative support and a significant increase in exports despite seasonal downturns [19][22]. Wind Power Sector Summary - Goldwind Technology's manufacturing profitability has improved significantly, achieving a positive profit for the first time since 2022, driven by a 71.2% year-on-year increase in sales revenue for wind turbines and components [7][8]. - The company has accelerated its overseas business development, with overseas sales reaching approximately 8.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.3% [8]. - The bidding scale for wind turbines from state-owned enterprises has rebounded significantly, with a total of about 8.3 GW since August, indicating a recovery in demand [9][12]. Lithium Battery Sector Summary - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate continues to rise, supported by raw material costs and limited market supply, with companies generally refusing to transact at lower prices [24]. - The solid-state battery industry is progressing, with significant developments in production capabilities and partnerships to enhance commercialization [24][25]. Photovoltaic & Energy Storage Sector Summary - A multi-department meeting on the photovoltaic industry has been held to enhance competition order and promote sustainable development [19][20]. - Despite a seasonal decline in July, photovoltaic exports remain strong, with a total of 31.7 GW exported, a year-on-year increase of 10% [22]. - The report recommends companies like Sungrow Power and Canadian Solar for continued investment due to their strong market positions [19][22]. AIDC Sector Summary - The liquid cooling sector is experiencing consolidation, with a long-term positive outlook for domestic companies in the global market [14][18]. - The establishment of the Intel UQD alliance indicates growing recognition of domestic liquid cooling component manufacturers [16][18]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Sector Summary - The SOFC technology is gaining traction due to power shortages and tight gas turbine supplies in the U.S., with significant growth opportunities anticipated [27][28].