Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the rare earth industry, indicating a potential for significant price increases and improved valuations due to supply reforms and market dynamics [6][40]. Core Insights - The implementation of the "Interim Measures for Total Control of Rare Earth Mining and Smelting Separation" marks a significant regulatory shift, enhancing government control over the rare earth supply chain [1][12]. - Rapid increases in processing fees for heavy rare earths signal a tightening supply and improved bargaining power for compliant smelting plants [2][14]. - Export volumes for key rare earth materials are recovering, with notable increases in the export of neodymium-iron-boron, suggesting a positive trend for future exports [3][20]. - Supply disruptions from Myanmar's mining operations could further impact the domestic supply of rare earths, particularly if mining is halted as planned [4][36]. - Future quotas for rare earth mining may not be publicly disclosed, indicating a more controlled and potentially limited supply growth [5][40]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Regulatory Changes - The "Interim Measures" officially include previously unregulated imported ore processing, establishing a traceability system for better supply monitoring [1][12]. Section 2: Processing Fees - Heavy rare earth processing fees surged from 1,500 RMB/ton to 15,000 RMB/ton, reflecting a tightening market and reduced buyer interest in imported ores [2][14]. Section 3: Export Recovery - Following export controls in April 2025, there was a recovery in export volumes for terbium and neodymium-iron-boron, with July figures showing a 6% increase in neodymium-iron-boron exports [3][20]. Section 4: Supply Disruptions - Myanmar's mining operations face potential halts, which could significantly affect the domestic supply of neodymium and praseodymium [4][36]. Section 5: Quota Management - The first batch of mining and smelting separation quotas for 2025 has been issued but may not be publicly disclosed in the future, suggesting a more conservative growth outlook [5][40]. Section 6: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, and Northern Rare Earth, which are positioned to benefit from supply reforms and market dynamics [6][43][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the electronic fabric and copper foil sectors, highlighting their strong performance and market leadership in the AI industry chain [2][13]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that two leading companies in electronic fabric and copper foil have exceeded expectations in their mid-year reports, driven by AI contributions, continuous improvement in core businesses, and strong market share positions [2][13]. - The report also highlights the growth potential in the African building materials market, particularly for local manufacturing companies like Keda Manufacturing, which is expected to benefit from high demand and favorable local recognition [14]. - The advancements in quantum computing are noted, with significant developments from IBM and Tsinghua University, indicating a growing interest and potential in this field [15]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Two leading companies in electronic fabric and copper foil have reported better-than-expected results, with AI contributing to profits and core businesses improving [2][13]. - Keda Manufacturing is highlighted as a leader in local production in Africa, benefiting from high demand and local support [14]. - Quantum computing advancements are being made, with IBM's roadmap and Tsinghua University's research indicating significant progress [15]. Market Performance - The building materials index showed a performance increase of 5.27%, with specific sectors like glass manufacturing and fiberglass performing particularly well [20]. - The report notes that the cement market is experiencing a slight price increase, with an average price of 343 RMB per ton, reflecting a 2 RMB increase from the previous period [17][28]. Price Changes in Building Materials - The report indicates that the national average price for cement has increased by 0.7%, with specific regions seeing price increases of 10-30 RMB per ton [28]. - The average price for float glass has decreased to 1205.78 RMB per ton, reflecting a decline of 2.42% [17][36]. Industry Trends - The report identifies a sustained high demand for AI materials, particularly in specialized fiberglass and high-grade copper foil, with expectations for continued growth in these areas [18]. - Traditional building material companies are accelerating their business transformations, with notable acquisitions and investments in AI-related fields [16].

Economic Indicators - The China Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers Index (EPMI) for August is 47.8, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a marginal improvement in economic sentiment[4] - The production price index (PPI) is expected to decline by approximately 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year in August, reflecting weak overall factory prices despite a significant year-on-year improvement due to lower technical levels last year[6] Financial Data - From January to July, the real sector received approximately 19 trillion yuan in funding, an increase of 2.7 trillion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by fiscal fund disbursements[10] - New deposits from residents amounted to 9.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 720 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards more liquid deposits[10] Market Trends - In the wake of new housing policies in Beijing, the year-on-year decline in commodity housing sales has narrowed, with second-hand housing sales showing a positive year-on-year growth[17] - Several small and medium-sized banks have lowered deposit rates, with rates for various terms adjusted down by 10 to 20 basis points[14] Risks - Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, tariff increases, and global supply chain adjustments pose risks of export volatility and declining corporate profits[3] - Changes in global geopolitical situations and international market fluctuations may continue to impact commodity prices and related industries[3]

Group 1: Geopolitical Context - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Tianjin Summit is the largest since the organization's inception, with over 20 foreign leaders attending, including Russia's President Putin and India's Prime Minister Modi[2] - The SCO has become a fundamental aspect of China's foreign diplomacy, especially as member countries face increasing pressure from the U.S., with tariffs exceeding 25% imposed on several SCO nations[2][3] Group 2: Economic Cooperation - In 2024, trade between China and SCO member countries reached $512.4 billion, accounting for approximately 8.3% of China's total foreign trade, indicating strong economic ties[19] - China is the largest trading partner for several SCO countries, including Russia and Kazakhstan, which are also key suppliers of energy resources, enhancing China's energy security[19] Group 3: Summit Agenda - The Tianjin Summit will focus on four main topics: internationalization of the Renminbi, cooperation in machinery manufacturing, resource product collaboration, and emerging industry partnerships[3][20] - The summit aims to strengthen the complementary relationship between resource supply and industrial demand, while also exploring new opportunities in digital economy and green development[20][21]

Core Insights - The report evaluates whether the bond market has fallen out of a safety margin due to high risk appetite and significant changes in the relative performance of major asset classes [2][7] - The analysis is conducted from both internal interest rate assessments and cross-asset pricing perspectives [7] Internal Interest Rate Assessment - The policy interest rate provides a "safety margin" with the 10-year government bond yield and the 7-day reverse repo rate spread rising to 38 basis points, close to the year’s high [8][9] - The yield curve shows a steepening characteristic in the short term, while remaining relatively flat in the long term, with most spreads above the 70th percentile for the year [12][13] - The downward movement of bond yields aligns with other interest rates, with a central tendency of around 70 basis points for various rates since 2024 [14] Cross-Asset Pricing Assessment - The bond-stock pricing ratio is reverting towards the 3-year average, indicating a recovery in bond allocation value [21] - The current 10-year government bond yield is at the 13th percentile, while commodity prices are mostly between the 0-20th percentiles, suggesting a close pricing match [23] - Compared to high-stickiness asset prices, bonds have fallen out of a certain safety margin, as real estate and durable goods prices are near their lowest points since 2021 [23] - The bond-loan pricing ratio has shown some recovery, with the 5-year government bond yield returning to a central channel level [24] - The comparison with rental yields has slightly improved, with the 30-year government bond yield recovering to a positive spread over urban residential rental yields [31] Overall Conclusion - The bond pricing has shown a degree of recovery, particularly in the year-to-date perspective, with several pricing indicators returning to their yearly highs. However, market sentiment remains weak, and technical signals indicate a bearish trend, suggesting that buying opportunities may require patience until market sentiment fully releases [33]

Group 1 - The simulated portfolio continues to show negative returns, with the medium and short-term credit style portfolio experiencing smaller drawdowns compared to the corresponding interest rate style portfolio, while the long-term portfolio has seen significant declines [2][14] - In the interest rate style portfolio, the weekly returns for the deposit sinking and deposit bullet strategies were both -0.25%, while in the credit style portfolio, these strategies had smaller drawdowns with returns of -0.14% each [2][14] - The credit style deposit-heavy portfolio's weekly average return slightly rebounded to -0.14%, outperforming the corresponding interest rate style portfolio by 10.7 basis points, marking the strongest defensive strategy since late July [2][17] Group 2 - The credit strategy has created a certain yield space, with the secondary bond duration strategy's yield distance from the year's low exceeding 20 basis points [3][26] - The main strategy combinations have seen yields stop falling and start to rise, with the secondary bond duration strategy's weekly yield increasing by nearly 0.16 basis points, bringing the annualized yield to 2.02%, which is 22.3 basis points wider from the year's low [3][26] - The weekly yield contribution from the credit style portfolio remains in the range of -25% to -5%, with capital gains continuing to drag down returns [3][26] Group 3 - In the past four weeks, the medium and short-term perpetual bond heavy strategies have shown certain defensive attributes, with cumulative excess returns for the city investment short-term sinking, commercial bank bullet, and perpetual bond sinking strategies reaching 13.3 basis points, 7.2 basis points, and 6.6 basis points respectively [4][32] - The city investment heavy strategies have recently underperformed compared to the secondary perpetual heavy strategies, with the cumulative returns for the city investment duration and barbell strategies deviating from the benchmark by -10 basis points and -30 basis points respectively [4][32] - The short-end strategies have outperformed the benchmark, while the city investment sinking strategy's excess returns have fallen into negative territory [4][35]

Investment Rating - The report recommends investing in SF Holding, Hainan Airlines, and Southern Airlines due to their strong performance and market positioning [2][4]. Core Views - The express delivery sector is experiencing significant growth, with SF Express leading the way with a 34% increase in business volume in July. The overall express delivery market is expected to see price increases due to rising costs in grain-producing areas and the upcoming peak season [2]. - The logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. launching AI and robotics research initiatives to enhance operational efficiency [3]. - The aviation sector shows a positive trend, with domestic flights increasing by 3.07% year-on-year. Airlines are expected to benefit from supply-demand optimization, leading to potential fare increases and profit elasticity [4]. - The shipping sector is witnessing a recovery in oil transportation indices, with expectations of increased demand due to OPEC+ production adjustments and sanctions on Iran and India [5]. - The road and rail sectors are showing stable growth, with highway truck traffic increasing by 3.06% week-on-week, indicating a robust logistics environment [6][78]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In July, SF Express achieved a business volume growth of 34%, leading the industry. The total express delivery volume for the week of August 11-17 was approximately 3.523 billion pieces, with a year-on-year increase of 11.81% [2]. - The market shares for major players in July 2025 are as follows: SF Express (8.4%), Yunda (13.2%), YTO (15.8%), and Shentong (13.3%) [2]. Logistics - The chemical product price index is at 4024 points, down 10.3% year-on-year. The domestic sea freight price for liquid chemicals is 158 RMB/ton, down 8.4% year-on-year [3]. - Hai Chen Co. is focusing on AI and robotics to enhance logistics efficiency, indicating a shift towards smart logistics solutions [3]. Aviation - The average daily flight operations increased to 17,321 flights, a year-on-year increase of 4.18%. Domestic flights saw a 3.07% increase, while international flights increased by 11.87% compared to 2019 [4]. - The Brent crude oil price is at $67.73/barrel, reflecting a 2.85% increase week-on-week, which may impact airline operational costs [4][65]. Shipping - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1174.87 points, down 1.5% week-on-week and down 40.5% year-on-year. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is at 1415.36 points, down 3.1% week-on-week and down 52.2% year-on-year [5][21]. - The oil transportation index (BDTI) is at 1019 points, reflecting a 0.5% increase week-on-week and a 9.2% increase year-on-year [5][34]. Road and Rail - The national railway passenger volume in July was 455 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The railway freight volume was 452 million tons, up 4.5% year-on-year [78]. - The national highway freight traffic for the week of August 11-17 was 54.93 million vehicles, a week-on-week increase of 3.06% and a year-on-year increase of 4.65% [6][82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer continued to decline by 4 percentage points to 46%, with most indicators falling to varying degrees, except for the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile [2][14]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 25%, with 5 indicators in the over - heated range, 5 in the neutral range, and 10 in the cold range [3][18]. - Only the average percentile of trading heat increased slightly by 2 percentage points, while the average percentiles of institutional behavior, spread, and comparison ratio decreased [4][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Micro - trading Thermometer Reading - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer continued to decline by 4 percentage points to 46%. Most indicators fell, while the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile increased. High - congestion indicators include the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate and the long - term Treasury bond trading volume ratio [2][14]. 3.2. Proportion of Indicators in the Over - heated Range - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 25%. Among 20 micro - indicators, 5 were in the over - heated range, 5 in the neutral range, and 10 in the cold range. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate moved from the cold to the neutral range, while the fund duration and policy spread moved from the neutral to the cold range, and the allocation disk strength moved from the over - heated to the cold range [3][18]. 3.2.1. 1/10Y Treasury Bond Turnover Rate - In the trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 50%, the proportion in the neutral range rose to 33%, and the proportion in the cold range fell to 17%. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate percentile increased by 37 percentage points to 54% and moved from the cold to the neutral range, while other indicators such as the TL/T long - short ratio, the whole - market turnover rate, and the institutional leverage percentile declined [5][21]. 3.2.2. Fund Duration - In the institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 25%, the proportion in the neutral range decreased to 25%, and the proportion in the cold range increased to 50%. Except for the 10 - percentage - point increase in the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume percentile, other indicators fell. The fund duration percentile decreased by 31 percentage points to 37% and moved from the neutral to the cold range, and the allocation disk strength percentile decreased by 33 percentage points to 39% and moved from the over - heated to the cold range [6][24]. 3.2.3. Policy Spread - The 3 - year Treasury bond yield increased significantly, and the policy spread widened from 1bp to 11bp, with the percentile decreasing by 34 percentage points to 13% and moving from the neutral to the cold range. The credit spread narrowed slightly by 2bp to 51bp, the Agricultural Development - China Development spread remained at 4bp, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened by 3bp to 5bp. The average spread of the three remained at 20bp, and its percentile increased slightly by 1 percentage point to 46%, still in the neutral range [7][31]. 3.2.4. Commodity Comparison Ratio Percentile - The proportion of comparison ratio indicators in the cold range remained at 100%. The stock - bond and commodity comparison ratio percentiles decreased by 4 and 1 percentage points to 23% and 0% respectively, while the real - estate comparison ratio percentile remained basically the same as the previous period [8][34].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The AI application landscape is evolving, with significant activity in overseas markets, particularly for models like Claude and Gemini, while domestic applications are stabilizing [3][11] - Samsung's HBM4 is expected to enter mass production by November or December, indicating competitive advancements in the high-end HBM market against SK Hynix [13][14] - NVIDIA's upcoming FY26Q2 earnings report is anticipated to show a revenue of $45.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 51.5%, with a focus on the manufacturing yield of their Blackwell architecture [15][18] - Google's Pixel 10 series, featuring the new Tensor G5 chip and Gemini Nano model, represents a significant upgrade aimed at enhancing user experience and AI capabilities [21][22] Summary by Sections AI Applications - The DeepSeek V3.1 model was released, introducing a mixed reasoning architecture that enhances task performance and efficiency, with a focus on compatibility with next-generation domestic chips [8][12] - The active user engagement in AI applications shows a notable increase for Claude, while Gemini and ChatGPT remain stable [11] HBM Market - Samsung's HBM4 samples have passed initial testing and are set for mass production, which could shift market dynamics as they adopt aggressive pricing strategies against SK Hynix [13][14] - Micron is also advancing in the HBM4 space, having delivered samples to key clients, indicating strong market demand [14] NVIDIA Financial Outlook - NVIDIA's revenue expectations for FY26Q2 are set at $45.5 billion, with a focus on the performance of their Blackwell architecture and potential impacts on gross margins due to manufacturing complexities [15][18] Google Pixel 10 Launch - The launch of Google's Pixel 10 series highlights advancements in AI integration, with the Tensor G5 chip enabling enhanced performance and new AI features aimed at improving user experience [21][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the virtual assets sector, particularly following the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, which has led to a rebound in virtual assets [1][3]. Core Insights - The enthusiasm for the revaluation of Chinese assets continues, with expectations of increased liquidity and valuation uplift for Chinese stocks, particularly in the context of upcoming earnings reports [3][16]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the gaming sector, projecting the Chinese gaming market to reach 29.1 billion yuan by July 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8.14% and a year-on-year growth of 4.62% [2][19]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing trends in blockchain and virtual assets, suggesting that institutions in Greater China will actively seek related investments in Hong Kong stocks [3][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Education Sector - The education index increased by 1.83%, underperforming compared to major indices like the CSI 300 and the SSE 50 [12]. - Key players such as New Oriental and TAL Education saw declines of 1.86% and 4.98%, respectively, indicating competitive pressures in the K12 education sector [12][19]. 2. Luxury Goods - The S&P Global Luxury Goods Index rose by 3.82%, with notable performances from high-end brands like Hermes and Richemont [19]. - The report notes a significant decline in new store openings in the luxury sector, particularly in non-first-tier cities, which saw a 48% drop [26]. 3. Coffee and Tea Drinks - The coffee sector remains robust, with a notable increase in consumer demand, while the tea drink segment faces increased competition [5][25]. - The report highlights the performance of various coffee brands, with Luckin Coffee opening new stores and expanding its market presence [30]. 4. E-commerce - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index showed a slight increase of 0.29%, with Pinduoduo and Dingdong Maicai leading in stock performance [31]. - Alibaba has restructured its business into four main divisions, aiming to enhance operational efficiency [35]. 5. Streaming Platforms - The report indicates a slight decline in the media index, with a focus on improving content supply for long-video platforms [32][40]. - The performance of major streaming services like iQIYI and Tencent Music varied, with iQIYI reporting a revenue decline of 11% [41]. 6. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $412.39 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices showing slight fluctuations [42]. - The report suggests a positive trend for virtual assets, with institutions increasingly entering the market [3][42]. 7. Real Estate Transactions - Recent data shows a continued decline in second-hand housing transactions in major cities, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate market [36]. 8. Automotive Services - The report notes a rise in losses among automotive dealers, with a 52.6% loss ratio reported for the first half of the year [5]. 9. Media and Entertainment - The report highlights the implementation of new policies aimed at enriching content supply for television platforms, which may improve the industry's outlook [40]. 10. Overall Market Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market sentiment and the performance of key sectors, particularly in light of macroeconomic conditions and regulatory changes [3][5].