Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the controllable nuclear fusion industry, particularly during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, suggesting a focus on the expansion of capital expenditures and the associated opportunities in the power supply systems for FRC and Z-pinch devices [2]. Core Insights - The power supply is deemed the "lifeline" of controllable nuclear fusion devices, with a significant value contribution. The report highlights that the power supply systems for nuclear fusion devices require high capacity (around 100MW), high voltage (up to 1MV), and high current (up to 100kA), with low ripple (1%-2%), indicating a higher complexity compared to traditional industrial power supplies [4][18]. - The report emphasizes the expected release of multiple orders due to the expansion of capital expenditures in the controllable nuclear fusion sector, driven by the construction of Tokamak and Z-pinch devices, as well as the commercial development of FRC devices [4][21]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Power Supply as the Lifeline of Controllable Nuclear Fusion Devices - The report categorizes nuclear fusion technology into magnetic confinement, inertial confinement, and magneto-inertial confinement, with Tokamak being the mainstream approach [12][14]. - The power supply system is identified as a core component of nuclear fusion devices, with a high value contribution, particularly in Tokamak systems where the power supply accounts for approximately 15% of the total value [18][23]. Section 2: Tokamak Requires Long Pulse Operation, Core is Pulse Power Supply - The Tokamak pulse power supply consists of magnet power supply, auxiliary heating power supply, and reactive power compensation systems, which are critical for plasma formation and maintenance [27]. - The report details the technical requirements for the magnet power supply, including high current, low ripple, and fast response times, indicating significant technical barriers [30][37]. Section 3: High Value Contribution of FRC and Z-Pinch Power Supply, Focus on Core Components - The FRC device is noted for its simplicity and lower costs, with expectations for early commercialization, while the Z-pinch approach has a high value contribution from its driver components [4][21]. - The report highlights the importance of fast control switches and pulse capacitors in the power supply for both FRC and Z-pinch devices, indicating a growing market opportunity [4][21]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Specific companies are highlighted for their potential in the nuclear fusion power supply market, including Xuguang Electronics, Wangzi New Materials, Guoli Co., and others, which are positioned to benefit from the expanding demand in this sector [4][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting significant price appreciation in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 3.7 billion to 4.2 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 328% to 385% [3]. - The demand for high-speed optical modules, particularly 800G, is expected to drive revenue and profit growth, benefiting from increased AI computing investments [4]. - The company is positioned as a key supplier of optical modules to major North American cloud service providers, with a significant increase in the proportion of 800G and above optical modules [4]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates substantial revenue growth, with expected revenues of 21.42 billion, 34.66 billion, and 47.81 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 148%, 62%, and 38% [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company anticipates a net profit of 3.7 billion to 4.2 billion RMB for 1H25, with a year-on-year increase of 328% to 385% [3]. - For 2Q25, the net profit is expected to be between 2.13 billion and 2.63 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 294% to 386% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35% to 67% [3]. Operational Analysis - The demand for 800G optical modules is projected to reach 18 to 22 million units globally in 2025, with major customers including Nvidia, Google, Meta, and AWS [4]. - The company is likely to benefit from potential early shipments of certain high-speed optical modules due to tariff uncertainties, further enhancing performance [4]. Outlook for 2026 - The demand for 800G optical modules is expected to double year-on-year, with the company launching a single-wave 200G 1.6T optical module product [5]. - Major cloud service providers are anticipated to significantly increase their use of ASIC chips, which require more optical modules compared to GPUs, positioning the company favorably [5]. - The company has established a presence in AEC and LPO solutions, which are expected to contribute to a second growth curve and improve profit quality [5]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21.42 billion, 34.66 billion, and 47.81 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 8.11, 12.47, and 14.50 RMB [5]. - The report projects P/E ratios of 16, 10, and 9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting strong earnings growth [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a significant price increase in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company anticipates a revenue of 708 million to 787 million RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 10% to flat growth. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 304 million and 361 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 25% to 11% [2]. - The company has successfully launched several innovative products, including the Cratos branched aortic stent system and the Tipspear transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt kit, which have received regulatory approval [3]. - The international business has expanded to over 40 countries, with significant certifications obtained for key products, indicating a strong international growth strategy [3]. Performance Analysis - The company experienced a temporary decline in performance due to price adjustments and market conditions in the domestic market, but core products have shown resilience and recovery in the second quarter [2]. - Revenue growth is projected to rebound significantly in the coming years, with expected net profits of 606 million, 794 million, and 965 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating growth rates of 21%, 31%, and 22% [4][9]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow from 1,206 million RMB in 2024 to 2,505 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21.08% [9]. - The projected net profit margins are expected to improve, with net profit margins of 41.6% in 2024 and 38.5% in 2027 [10]. Market Sentiment - Recent market analysis shows a strong preference for "Buy" ratings, with a significant number of recommendations over the past months indicating positive sentiment towards the company's stock [11].

Group 1: Dollar Performance and Market Sentiment - In the first half of 2025, the US dollar index fell by 10.7%, marking its worst performance since 1973[5] - In Q1, the "US vs Non-US" interest rate differential explained 91% of dollar fluctuations, but this dropped to 33% in Q2, with "de-dollarization" becoming the dominant market narrative[2] - A Bank of America survey in June indicated that market consensus on a weak dollar reached a 20-year high[5] Group 2: Hedging and Investment Behavior - Foreign investors are increasingly using foreign exchange derivatives to hedge risks rather than divesting from dollar-denominated assets[6] - From April onwards, there was a significant increase in short positions in dollar futures, with net positions shifting from long to short[6] - The demand for hedging has surged, as evidenced by the spike in EUR/USD risk reversal option prices, indicating heightened hedging needs[11] Group 3: Potential Reversal Opportunities for the Dollar - Four potential reversal opportunities for the weak dollar include: 1. Diminished market response to equivalent tariffs, potentially reducing dollar hedging demand[3] 2. The dollar index nearing long-term support levels reflecting US productivity advantages[3] 3. Changes in Trump's policies may reduce the motivation for new tariffs, potentially supporting the dollar[3] 4. Market interpretations of interest rate cuts could stimulate economic activity and support the dollar[3] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Risks include limited indicators for observing hedging demand in the dollar forex market and potential non-linear declines in US fundamentals[4] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's continued tariff pressures and interference with Federal Reserve independence poses additional risks[4]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index rebounded last week, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread deepened. The nominal and real yields of 10Y US Treasuries both increased, indicating a rise in inflation expectations [1][15] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally eased, while the domestic interbank funding situation remains overall balanced and slightly loose, with a slight narrowing of the yield spread between 10Y and 1Y [1][20] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has increased, with most industry trading heat above the 80th percentile. Major index volatility has also risen, although most industry volatilities remain below the 40th historical percentile [1][27] - The trading heat in sectors such as light industry, textiles, retail, computing, construction materials, and financial real estate is notably high [1][30] Institutional Research - High research activity is observed in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, home appliances, computing, retail, and non-ferrous metals, with real estate, home appliances, oil and petrochemicals, and telecommunications also seeing a rise in research activity [2] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have raised net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026. Sectors such as telecommunications, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, electric new energy, electronics, non-bank financials, construction, media, food and beverage, and home appliances have all seen upward adjustments in their profit forecasts [3][4] - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500, ChiNext Index, and CSI 300 have been raised, while the forecast for the SSE 50 has been adjusted both up and down [3][4] - In terms of investment style, mid-cap/small-cap growth and mid-cap value sectors have seen upward adjustments in their profit forecasts for 2025/2026, while large-cap growth and large/mid/small-cap value sectors have seen downward adjustments [3][4] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded, with overall net purchases of A-shares. The average daily trading volume and proportion of northbound trading have both increased significantly [5][6] - Based on the top 10 active stocks, the trading volume ratio for northbound trading in sectors such as banking, telecommunications, electric utilities, computing, electric new energy, and non-ferrous metals has risen, while it has fallen in sectors like home appliances, automobiles, electronics, non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture [5][6] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has increased, with net purchases amounting to 22.546 billion yuan last week. The main net purchases were in non-ferrous metals, computing, non-bank financials, electric new energy, and electronics, while net sales were seen in food and beverage, transportation, oil and petrochemicals, and real estate [4][6] - The financing purchase ratio has increased in sectors such as coal, textiles, agriculture, military, and transportation [4][6] Fund Activity - Active equity funds have increased their positions, particularly in sectors like automobiles, TMT, home appliances, electric new energy, pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals, while reducing positions in oil and petrochemicals, electric utilities, real estate, coal, and construction [6][9] - ETFs have seen overall net subscriptions, primarily driven by individual ETFs, with significant net purchases in sectors like electronics, military, banking, coal, steel, and machinery, while net sales were observed in non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, electric new energy, telecommunications, media, and computing [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6][14]. Core Insights - The company anticipates a net loss attributable to shareholders of 875 million to 975 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous year [3]. - Revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 3.56 billion and 3.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.3% to 6.4%, but showing growth in the second quarter [3][4]. - The company is implementing an "AI-first" strategy, focusing on upgrading its product matrix and validating internal scenarios to drive AI commercialization [5]. Financial Performance Summary - The company expects revenues of 10.05 billion, 11.15 billion, and 12.49 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 9.80%, 11.00%, and 12.00% [6][11]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is -700 million yuan for 2025, with a turnaround to a profit of 50 million yuan in 2026 and 500 million yuan in 2027 [6][11]. - The operating cash flow is expected to improve significantly, with a net inflow of approximately 3.2 billion yuan in the second quarter of 2025 [3].

Report Summary 1. Core View - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 0.82%. The overall estimated stock position of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds increased by 0.24% to 87.45%. The median estimated duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds rose by 0.26 to 3.31 years, and that of short - term pure bond funds rose by 0.30 to 1.16 years. The median duration of credit bond funds rose by 0.21 to 2.89 years, and that of interest - rate bond funds rose by 0.28 to 4.87 years [4]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Fund Stock Position Calculation - The overall estimated stock position of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds has shown a volatile trend recently. This week, it increased by 0.24% to 87.45%, 0.77% lower than the quarterly report. Active equity funds' position rose by 0.31% to 89.55%, and partial - equity hybrid funds' position rose by 0.23% to 86.96% [7]. - The overall increase or decrease in positions of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds this week was mostly concentrated in [0%, 1%] (766 funds), followed by [-1%, 0%] (171 funds). Funds with sizes below 20 billion, between 20 - 50 billion, and 50 - 80 billion slightly increased their positions, while other - sized funds slightly reduced their positions [11]. - In terms of fund holding styles, growth stocks accounted for a higher proportion in fund holdings. This week, value stocks were slightly reduced, and growth stocks were slightly increased. The proportion of small - cap stocks in fund holdings was relatively high. This week, large - cap and mid - cap stocks were slightly increased, and small - cap stocks were slightly reduced [15]. - The top 5 industries held by active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds this week were electronics (13.65%), power equipment (8.70%), pharmaceutical biology (7.16%), automobiles (6.54%), and machinery (5.37%). The top 3 industries with increased positions were communication (+0.36%), building materials (+0.20%), and non - ferrous metals (+0.12%); the top 3 industries with reduced positions were comprehensive (-0.21%), national defense and military industry (-0.19%), and pharmaceutical biology (-0.15%) [18]. 2.2 Bond Fund Duration Calculation - This week, the yield to maturity of China Bond's 10 - year China Development Bank bonds rose by 3bps. The median estimated duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds rose by 0.26 to 3.31 years, at the 99.40% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 3.26 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration rose by 0.10 to 1.69 years. The median duration of short - term pure bond funds rose by 0.30 to 1.16 years. The median duration of credit bond funds rose by 0.21 to 2.89 years, with 7% of actively operated funds and 24% of conservatively operated funds; the median duration of interest - rate bond funds rose by 0.28 to 4.87 years, with 55% of actively operated funds and 4% of conservatively operated funds [21]. - The median estimated duration of credit bond funds rose by 0.21 to 2.89 years, at the 100.00% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 2.78 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration rose by 0.06 to 1.25 years. The median estimated duration of interest - rate bond funds rose by 0.28 to 4.87 years, at the 99.20% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 5.00 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration rose by 0.10 to 1.84 years [23]. - This week, the estimated duration of credit bond funds was concentrated in [2.5, 3) (167 funds), followed by [3, 3.5) (126 funds). The estimated duration of interest - rate bond funds was concentrated in [5,) (159 funds), followed by [4.5, 5) (54 funds) [28]. - Among credit bond funds, the proportion of funds with active duration operations (above the 80% percentile of their own duration in the past year) this week was 6.62%, and the proportion of funds with conservative duration operations (below the 20% percentile of their own duration in the past year) was 24.39%. Among interest - rate bond funds, the proportion of funds with active duration operations was 55.17%, and the proportion of funds with conservative duration operations was 4.02% [29]. - This week, the yield to maturity of China Bond's 1 - year China Development Bank bonds rose by 5bps. The median estimated duration of short - term pure bond funds rose by 0.30 to 1.16 years, at the 99.70% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 1.16 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration rose by 0.11 to 0.48 years. The estimated duration of passive policy - bank bond funds decreased by 0.12 to 3.65 years [33].

Sales Performance - Global PC device sales in Q2 2025 increased by 6.5% year-on-year, reaching approximately 68 million units[5] - U.S. PC sales were about 19 million units, showing a slight growth of 0.1% year-on-year[5] - Apple performed best in Q2 with global shipments of approximately 6.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%[5] - In the U.S., Apple sold about 2.8 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.2%[5] Market Trends - Apple's Mac series outpaced the overall growth rate of laptops, with global and U.S. sales growth maintaining around 20% even when excluding U.S. sales[11] - Factors contributing to Apple's strong performance include an upcoming replacement cycle for PCs purchased during remote work/study periods and the 2025 student discount policy for MacBooks[12] Tariff Impact - The U.S. tariff policy could impose a 25% tariff on products from Japan and South Korea, with Taiwan's tariff situation remaining uncertain[3] - If tariffs are implemented, the cost of Mac series products could increase by at least 15% compared to the original 10% tariff[13] Risks - Potential risks include challenges in chip manufacturing processes and yield rates, uncertainty in tariff policies, and lower-than-expected PC device sales[4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming and livestock, with a focus on high-quality, low-cost expansion companies [2][20][36]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a weekly increase of 1.09%, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2][13]. - The pig farming sector is experiencing a slight adjustment in prices, with expectations of improved mid-term profitability due to better management of supply pressures [20][22]. - The poultry farming sector is facing price pressures due to weak demand, but there are expectations for recovery as consumer demand improves [30][33]. - The livestock sector is seeing a stabilization in beef prices, with potential for a new cycle of growth as supply constraints continue [36][37]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external uncertainties [42][43]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are showing stable prices, with a positive outlook for aquatic product prices [60][61]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2759.14 points, with a weekly increase of 1.09%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.09% as well [2][13]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of pigs is 14.81 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 3.52%. The average weight of pigs at market is 129.03 kg, showing a slight increase [20][21]. - Profits for self-breeding and self-raising are reported at 133.87 yuan/head, indicating a positive trend in profitability [20][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens is 6.24 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 7.56%. The profitability for parent stock chickens is negative, indicating pressure on margins [30][33]. 2.3 Livestock - The price of live cattle is 26.44 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.71%. The dairy sector is stabilizing, with expectations for milk prices to recover in the second half of 2025 [36][37]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2351.43 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease. The report highlights the importance of grain production stability amid external uncertainties [42][43]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remain stable, with no significant changes reported. Aquaculture prices are showing a positive trend, particularly for shrimp and abalone [60][61].

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in the logistics sector, specifically in companies like SF Holding and Haichen Co., due to their resilience and growth potential [2][3]. Core Views - The express delivery industry has seen a significant increase, with national express delivery volume surpassing 1 trillion pieces, indicating strong growth potential [2]. - The logistics sector is under pressure, particularly in hazardous materials logistics, but there is a push towards smart logistics, which is expected to benefit companies like Haichen Co. [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing robust growth, with major airports like Baiyun and Shenzhen expected to see significant profit increases in the first half of 2025 [4]. - The shipping industry is facing challenges, with a slight increase in the BDI index but a decline in container shipping rates [4][36]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index rose by 0.7% during the week of July 5-11, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.1% [12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Express Delivery - The national express delivery volume has exceeded 1 trillion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 16.6% [2]. - Jitu's package volume reached approximately 7.39 billion pieces in Q2 2025, with a growth rate of 3.5% [2]. Logistics - The chemical product price index (CCPI) is at 4035 points, down 14.4% year-on-year [3]. - The domestic shipping price for liquid chemicals is 163 RMB/ton, down 13.9% year-on-year [3]. Aviation Airports - Baiyun Airport expects a net profit of 679 million to 830 million RMB for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 55.06% to 89.51% [4]. - Shenzhen Airport anticipates a net profit of 287 million to 337 million RMB for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 64.78% to 93.47% [4]. Shipping - The CCFI index for export container shipping is 1313.7 points, down 2.2% week-on-week and down 39.0% year-on-year [21]. - The BDI index for dry bulk shipping is 1483.6 points, up 2.2% week-on-week but down 23.7% year-on-year [36]. Road and Rail Ports - The total cargo throughput at monitored ports was 25.988 million tons, down 5.28% week-on-week [5]. - The number of trucks passing through highways was 52.977 million, down 2.42% week-on-week but up 1.71% year-on-year [5].