银行行业近期受资金青睐， 北交所、医药主题基金上半年业绩靠前 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W27） 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 4 月 27 日 证券研究报告 金工研究 [Table_ReportType] 金工定期报告 [Table_Author] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 吴彦锦 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523090002 联系电话：+86 18616819227 邮 箱：wuyanjin@cindasc.com 周君睿 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523110005 联系电话：+86 19821223545 邮 箱：zhoujunrui@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 量化市场追踪周报(2025W27)：银行行业近期受资 金青睐，北交所、医药主题基金上半年业绩靠前 [Table_Re ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that recent market and policy focus on de-capacity and anti-involution may signify the late stage of the overcapacity cycle, with market-driven capacity reduction already underway, regardless of policy [2][10][11] - Since 2021, the continuous decline in corporate revenue has led to a cumulative year-on-year negative growth in capital expenditure across the entire A-share market, marking the longest period of negative growth since 2005 [10][11] - De-capacity is a crucial part of the capacity cycle, but its short-term impact on profitability is limited if demand does not show a turning point; supply policies mainly affect the height of future price reversals rather than the direction of prices [10][11] Group 2 - The process of de-capacity typically follows three steps: declining revenue and profits lead to reduced capital expenditure, which subsequently results in a decrease in capacity growth [3][11] - The effects of de-capacity are often only visible when demand improves; during periods of declining industry prices, the supply-demand balance tends to be in a low-cost zone, meaning most companies are losing money [15][17] - The current overcapacity is primarily driven by the decline in the real estate sector since 2021, with a need to monitor whether a second demand decline similar to 2014-2015 will occur [18][21] Group 3 - The current judgment suggests a strategic outlook similar to 2013 and 2019, with a high probability of developing into a comprehensive bull market, although tactical indicators may require time to break through the recent trading range [23][24] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in July, but a return to a bull market is anticipated in the latter part of Q3 or Q4, contingent on either earnings or policy turning optimistic [23][24] - Recent configuration suggestions include a focus on value in the short term, with potential increases in exposure to elastic industries after Q3 [26][29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have generally increased as of July 4, 2025, with Brent and WTI prices at $68.30 and $62.36 per barrel respectively [2][8] - OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, which is putting pressure on the market, while a trade agreement between the US and Vietnam has led to optimistic market expectations [2][8] - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown a positive performance, with the sector rising by 0.51% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's increase of 1.54% [9][12] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of July 4, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $68.30 per barrel, up $1.50 per barrel (+2.25%), while WTI crude futures settled at $62.36 per barrel, down $3.16 per barrel (-4.82%) [24] - The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, and ESPO crude increased by $1.21 per barrel (+1.93%) [24] Offshore Drilling Services - As of June 30, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 380, an increase of 2 from the previous week [32] - The number of global floating drilling platforms remained at 134 [32] US Oil Supply - As of June 27, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.433 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.02 million barrels per day [49] - The number of active drilling rigs in the US was 425, down by 7 rigs [49] US Oil Demand - As of June 27, 2025, US refinery crude processing was 17.105 million barrels per day, an increase of 118,000 barrels per day [60] - The US refinery utilization rate was 94.90%, up by 0.2 percentage points [60] US Oil Inventory - As of June 27, 2025, total US crude oil inventory was 822 million barrels, an increase of 4.084 million barrels (+0.50%) [71] - Strategic crude oil inventory was 403 million barrels, up by 239,000 barrels (+0.06%) [71] Product Oil Prices - As of July 4, 2025, average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel in the US were $99.33, $88.28, and $91.43 per barrel respectively [91] - In Europe, average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $95.29, $95.32, and $97.15 per barrel respectively [95] Product Oil Supply - As of June 27, 2025, US production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel was 962.1, 503.4, and 191.8 thousand barrels per day respectively [104]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the growth certainty amidst fluctuations in the light industry manufacturing sector, particularly focusing on the export chain narrative becoming clearer [2] - The report highlights the stability in paper prices and the potential recovery in the pulp and paper sector, with specific companies recommended for investment [2][3] - The report discusses the impact of new tariffs on exports from Vietnam to the U.S. and suggests that this may lead to a recovery in order placements [3] - The report notes the challenges in the new tobacco sector due to increased compliance scrutiny in the U.S. and suggests potential beneficiaries of this trend [4] - The report outlines the performance of various sectors including e-commerce, electrical lighting, and home furnishings, indicating growth opportunities and strategic expansions [7][9][10] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper - Pulp prices are stabilizing with South American bleached eucalyptus pulp prices at $500-510 per ton, and domestic pulp mills are facing rising costs [2] - Companies like Sun Paper and Xianhe are recommended for their integrated pulp and paper operations and profitability improvements [2] Exports - The recent tariff agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam is expected to enhance order placements and stabilize the export chain [3] - Companies with strong global layouts and those facing short-term performance pressures are highlighted for potential investment [3] New Tobacco - The U.S. FDA is increasing compliance checks, leading to a significant drop in e-cigarette shipments, which may benefit compliant companies [4] E-commerce - "Jiao Ge Peng You" reported impressive sales during the 618 shopping festival, indicating a successful technology-driven retail strategy [7] Electrical Lighting & Smart Home - Bull Group's international strategy is yielding results with significant sales in Germany, while other companies are exploring high-end markets [9] Home Furnishings - The launch of new product systems by "Bei Wo" and the anticipated restart of national subsidies are expected to boost consumer confidence in home furnishings [10] Consumer Products - The report notes a divergence in growth trends within the personal care sector, with certain brands showing strong performance [11] Gold and Jewelry - The demand for boutique gold jewelry is strengthening, with stable gold prices expected to support overall industry recovery [12][13] Two-Wheel Vehicles - Tao Tao Vehicle's strong profit forecast indicates growth potential in the electric vehicle sector [14] Cross-Border E-commerce - Companies like Xiao Shang Pin Cheng and Ji Hong are expected to perform well as tariff uncertainties diminish [15] Packaging - Yongxin and Yutong Technology are projected to maintain steady growth, with a focus on functional and differentiated materials [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [10][11] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [10] - The trend of coal prices establishing a bottom and moving to a new platform is expected to continue, with high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE), and dividends from quality coal companies [10][11] - The coal sector is viewed as undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, supported by high premiums in the primary mining rights market and a public fund allocation that is currently underweight in coal [10][11] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of July 5, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 616 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2 CNY/ton [28] - The price for thermal coal from Shaanxi Yulin (Q6000) is 600 CNY/ton, up 5.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [28] - The international thermal coal price at Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 64.8 USD/ton, down 0.3 USD/ton week-on-week [28] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 94%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points week-on-week [46] - The capacity utilization rate for sample coking coal mines is 83.82%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points week-on-week [46] - Coastal provinces' daily coal consumption increased by 18.80 thousand tons/day (+9.90%) while inland provinces' daily consumption decreased by 0.60 thousand tons/day (-0.16%) [47] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and robust performance companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [11] - Consider companies with significant rebound potential like Yanzhou Coal, Electric Power Energy, and Guanghui Energy [11] - Pay attention to high-quality metallurgical coal companies such as Huabei Mining and Pingmei Shenma [11]

证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | | | 央行国债买卖披露方式调整 逆回购净回笼无改资金宽松 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250706 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 3央行国债买卖披露方式调整 逆回购净回笼无改资金宽松 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+86 18817583889 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com [➢Table_Summary] 货币市场：本周央行公开市场净回笼流动性 13753 亿元。周一跨半年当日资 金面明显收紧，周二后尽管央行逆回购持 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy has driven an increase in steel prices, leading to a positive outlook for value recovery in the steel sector [3][4]. - The steel sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 5.27%, compared to a 1.54% rise in the CSI 300 index [11]. - The report highlights that while the steel industry faces supply-demand imbalances, the implementation of "stability growth" policies is expected to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The steel sector saw a weekly increase of 5.27%, outperforming the market, with specific segments like long products rising by 8.32% and flat products by 6.95% [3][11]. - The average daily pig iron production was 2.4085 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 1.44 tons but a year-on-year increase of 1.41 tons [3][26]. Supply Data - As of July 4, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.3%, down 0.54 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace utilization was at 51.1%, down 3.45 percentage points [3][26]. - The total production of five major steel products reached 7.734 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.06 thousand tons [3][26]. Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products increased to 8.853 million tons, a week-on-week rise of 5.41 thousand tons [3][35]. - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 107 thousand tons, up 0.81 thousand tons week-on-week, reflecting an increase of 8.23% [3][35]. Inventory Levels - Social inventory of five major steel products rose to 9.161 million tons, an increase of 9.62 thousand tons week-on-week, but down 29.01% year-on-year [3][42]. - Factory inventory decreased to 4.238 million tons, down 9.72 thousand tons week-on-week, and down 13.43% year-on-year [3][42]. Price Trends - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel increased to 3,390.0 CNY/ton, a week-on-week rise of 45.42 CNY/ton [3][49]. - The comprehensive index for special steel decreased to 6,576.5 CNY/ton, down 14.61 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][49]. Profitability - The profit per ton for rebar was 187 CNY, an increase of 42.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][58]. - The average iron water cost was 2,148 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 10.0 CNY/ton [3][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-margin special steel producers [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [123]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the cost influence on product prices is weak, leading to a narrowing of refining product price spreads [1]. - Domestic key refining project price spread is 2637.62 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of -23.83 CNY/ton (-0.90%), while the foreign key refining project price spread is 1631.26 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of +370.34 CNY/ton (+29.37%) [2]. - Brent crude oil weekly average price is 68.02 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week change of -1.78% [2]. Refining Sector Summary - In the refining sector, international oil prices experienced slight increases due to positive demand expectations, but were pressured by OPEC+ production increase plans [1][13]. - As of July 4, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were 68.30 and 66.50 USD/barrel, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.53 and 0.98 USD/barrel compared to June 27, 2025 [1][13]. - Domestic refined oil prices have decreased, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 7267.29, 8276.14, and 6222.57 CNY/ton, respectively [13]. Chemical Sector Summary - The report notes that the rise in crude oil prices has a weak guiding influence on product prices, leading to an overall decline in chemical product spreads [1]. - Polyethylene prices have decreased due to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream manufacturers, while polypropylene prices have shown some support due to supply-side contractions [53]. - The average price of MMA has decreased slightly, while the price spread has improved [67]. Polyester Sector Summary - The polyester sector has seen a slight decline in price levels, with upstream PX supply slightly decreasing due to planned maintenance [81]. - The average price of PTA is reported at 4960.71 CNY/ton, with an average profit margin of -161.86 CNY/ton [90]. - The report highlights that the demand for polyester products is weakening, leading to a decrease in prices and profitability [88][102]. Performance of Major Refining Companies - The stock price changes for six major refining companies as of July 4, 2025, include Rongsheng Petrochemical (+2.91%), Hengli Petrochemical (-0.35%), and others [1][110]. - Over the past month, stock performance shows mixed results, with Rongsheng Petrochemical down by 0.12% and Hengli Petrochemical down by 2.41% [110][111].

OpenAI 与甲骨文签署 300 亿美元协议， AI 基建投资加速 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业周报 Table_ReportType] | [Table_StockAndRank] 电子 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 莫文宇 电子行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522090001 邮 箱：mowenyu@cindasc.com 杨宇轩 电子行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525010001 邮箱：yangyuxuan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] OpenAI 与甲骨文签署 300 亿美元协议，AI 基建投资加速 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 [Table_S [Table_Summary ummary] ] ➢ 本周电子细分行业指数出现分化。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric power equipment and new energy industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the landscape for power batteries is expected to optimize, with profitability in the sector likely to recover. Key factors include a long-term significant correction in the lithium battery sector, a potential turning point for the oversupply of lithium batteries, and a decrease in lithium carbonate prices which may lower battery costs and stimulate downstream demand. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to rise due to advancements in fast charging and new technologies [2][3] - The report anticipates that 2025 will be a significant year for grid investment, with the electric power equipment sector presenting favorable investment opportunities. The increasing demand for electricity from emerging industries like AI is expected to drive the demand for power equipment. The rapid development of new energy sources is creating pressure on the grid, leading to a positive outlook for global grid investment [3][4] - In the energy storage sector, a high growth trend is expected to continue in 2025. The report notes that the construction of the electricity market and auxiliary service market is likely to enhance the commercial viability of large-scale energy storage, while the recognition of commercial energy storage is expected to improve due to the development of virtual power plants [4] - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing sustained high demand in Europe, with domestic ground power station demand remaining strong. The report suggests that the reduction in costs across the supply chain is likely to accelerate the installation of photovoltaic systems globally [6][7] - The report discusses the industrial control and humanoid robot sectors, indicating a potential new cycle of industrial control driven by large-scale equipment updates. The report also highlights the rapid advancement of intelligent platforms in the humanoid robot industry, which may accelerate the deployment of robots in factories [6][7] - The low-altitude economy is being catalyzed by policy changes, with the establishment of a leadership group for general aviation and low-altitude economic development by the Civil Aviation Administration. This is expected to promote the safe and orderly development of the low-altitude economy [7] Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - In May 2025, sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.307 million units, a year-on-year increase of 36.9% and a month-on-month increase of 6.6%. The installed capacity of power batteries was 57.1 GWh, up 61.3% year-on-year [14][15] Electric Power Equipment and Energy Storage - The report emphasizes the importance of energy storage in the power system, predicting a high growth trend for energy storage in 2025. It highlights the potential for large-scale energy storage to develop commercially and the expected rebound in household storage demand as summer approaches [4][6] Photovoltaic Industry - The report notes that the photovoltaic industry is benefiting from high demand in Europe and strong domestic demand for ground power stations. The reduction in costs across the supply chain is expected to stimulate global market demand [6][7] Industrial Control and Humanoid Robots - The report indicates that a new cycle in industrial control is approaching, driven by low inventory levels in industrial enterprises. The development of intelligent platforms is expected to accelerate the deployment of humanoid robots in factories [6][7] Low-altitude Economy - The establishment of a leadership group for general aviation and low-altitude economic development is expected to promote the safe and orderly development of the low-altitude economy [7]