市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-12-23，沪铜主力合约开于 94030元/吨，收于 93930元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.41%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 94850元/吨，收于 94890元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨1.02%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM电解铜现货报价贴水260至170元/吨，均价贴水215元/吨，较昨日下跌20元。1#电解铜价格 区间为93340-93600元/吨。早盘沪铜主力合约窄幅整理于93610-93800元/吨，尾盘小幅收涨。现货市场表现低迷， 整体转为买方主导。早盘平水铜对次月报价贴水220元/吨左右，好铜贴水170元/吨，随后平水铜贴水扩大至260元/ 吨，好铜相对稳定在180元/吨附近。湿法铜因货源偏紧，价格仍居高位。跨月价差维持在C220-C180元/吨之间。预 计买方还价意愿持续偏低，市场交投清淡，现货升水或将继续下行。 重要资讯汇总： 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-24 现货表现持续低迷 短期铜价大幅走强概率或相对较小 宏观与地缘方面，经济数据方面，美国第三季度实际GDP初值年化季环比大幅增长4.3%，远超市场预期的增长3.3%， ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-24 消费仍有支撑，猪价窄幅震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11415元/吨，较前交易日变动+70.00元/吨，幅度+0.62%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.68元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.02元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+265，较前交易日变动-50；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.86元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH03+445，较前交易日变动+30；四川 地区外三元生猪价格11.68元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH03+265，较前交易日变动-70。 据农业农村部监测，12月23日"农产品批发价格200指数"为130.52，与昨天持平，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数为 133.46，与昨天持平。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.53元/公斤，比昨天下降0.2%；牛肉66.02元/公斤， 比昨天上升0.2%；羊肉63.09元/公斤，比昨天上升0.1%；鸡蛋7.48元/公斤，与昨天持平；白条鸡17.96元/公斤，比 昨天上升0.2%。 市场分析 生猪现货报价北方地区受降温散户 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-24 糖价止跌反弹，郑棉走势偏强 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14140元/吨，较前一日变动+70元/吨，幅度+0.50%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15067元/吨，较前一日变动+81元/吨，现货基差CF05+927，较前一日变动+11；3128B棉全国均价15213元/吨， 较前一日变动+59元/吨，现货基差CF05+1073，较前一日变动-11。 近期市场资讯，海关统计数据，2025年11月棉制品（包括含棉混纺制品，不仅指纯棉制品，下同）出口量64.64万 吨，同比增加9.84%，环比增加6.32%；出口金额52.74亿美元，同比减少10.67%，环比增加12.74%；出口单价为8.16 美元/千克，同比下跌18.64%，环比上涨6.11%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡上涨。国际方面，本月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花产需双减， 期末库存微幅增加。美棉产量继续小幅调增，经过两个月的调整后美棉累库压力明显加大。当前北半球新棉集中 上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲软，短期ICE美棉仍将承 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets are experiencing a rebound due to the continuous stimulation of events in Indonesia. For nickel, the short - term is in a strong atmosphere, but the long - term supply surplus pattern remains. For stainless steel, the short - term price may fluctuate with nickel prices, and the medium - to - long - term needs to focus on the resolution of supply - demand contradictions [1][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2602 opened at 120,280 yuan/ton and closed at 123,440 yuan/ton, a change of 3.92% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 386,986 (+190,610) lots, and the holding volume was 134,454 (+21,822) lots. The price showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, and strong upward movement, driven by the fermentation of news of a significant reduction in Indonesia's nickel ore quota, combined with the drive of the external market and the entry of long - position funds. Attention should be paid to the details of Indonesia's quota policy implementation and the progress of the revision of the 2026 mineral benchmark price calculation formula [1] - **Nickel Ore**: According to Mysteel, recent new tender transactions in the nickel ore market have landed, and the overall nickel ore price has remained stable. The 1.3% nickel ore in southern China was transacted at CIF $39.5. In the Philippines, the 1.3% nickel ore tender from the northern Benguet mine landed at FOB $33.5. Considering the impact of rainy weather, the shipping efficiency is okay. Downstream iron plants are still in a profit - loss state, and their mentality of pressing prices for raw material nickel ore purchases may slow down. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in December fell by $0.11 - 0.18/ton, and the current mainstream premium remains at +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26, expected to remain flat [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 128,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was still cold, and downstream buyers were cautious. The spot premiums and discounts of various refined nickel brands mostly remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 200 yuan/ton to 6,900 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 38,922 (+1,320) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,388 (-162) tons [2] Strategy - In the short term, affected by news, the fundamentals show high inventory and an unchanged pattern of oversupply. Be vigilant against callbacks caused by rapid short - term price increases. The strategy for the single - side operation is to sell hedging on rallies. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 23, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2602 opened at 12,840 yuan/ton and closed at 12,905 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 168,990 (-497) lots, and the holding volume was 100,771 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a pattern of "passively following the rise, increasing volume and decreasing positions", driven by the strong rise of Shanghai nickel and breaking through important resistance levels technically [3] - **Spot**: The futures market weakened, downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and they mainly purchased on - demand. Inventory depletion slowed down. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,975 (+75) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,950 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 100 to 350 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 4.00 yuan/nickel point to 889.0 yuan/nickel point [3] Strategy - The pattern of weak supply and demand in the fundamentals remains unchanged. The short - term price may fluctuate with nickel prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to the resolution of supply - demand contradictions. Be cautious about chasing highs. The single - side operation strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [5]

原油日报 | 2025-12-24 海外圣诞假期油市交易转淡 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所2026年2月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨37美分，收于每桶58.38美元，涨幅为0.64%；2月交货 的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨31美分，收于每桶62.38美元，涨幅为0.5%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.14%，报442 元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 当地时间12月23日，塞尔维亚总统武契奇表示，塞尔维亚已与俄罗斯方面就天然气供应问题达成一致，现有 协议将延长至2026年3月31日，确保冬季能源供应安全。武契奇指出，这一安排将有效保障居民生活和经济运行需 要，民众无需担心天然气短缺问题。他强调，当前塞尔维亚在能源保障方面总体形势稳定，国家已做好应对各种 复杂情况的准备。在谈及石油领域相关问题时，武契奇表示，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司正在与匈牙利能源公司 MOL就塞尔维亚石油公司的股份调整事宜进行谈判。塞方对与匈方开展合作持开放态度，认为两国关系友好、合 作基础良好。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 自特朗普政府通过锁定油轮来加强限制委内瑞拉原油收入的措施以来，已有十余艘油轮在委内瑞拉海岸装载 石 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply - demand pattern of bean meal remains unchanged, with soybean and bean meal inventories high and strong South American harvest expectations. The 05 contract price of bean meal follows the weak trend of US soybean prices, but the high import cost of US soybeans provides some support. Future focus should be on soybean imports and South American soybean growth [2] - For corn, the supply side has farmers reluctant to sell, and the demand side has cautious traders and mainly rigid - demand purchases from feed enterprises. Current inventories are rising but still below historical levels, and future focus should be on alternative grain auctions [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2605 contract was 2745 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2349 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.51% [1] - Spot: Tianjin bean meal was 3080 yuan/ton, Jiangsu was 3020 yuan/ton, and Guangdong was 3030 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous day. Fujian rapeseed meal was 2570 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: As of December 18, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 870,000 tons. AgRural expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean output to reach 180.4 million tons [1] Market Analysis - The domestic supply - demand situation remains stable, with soybean and bean meal inventories rising slightly. The 05 contract price is weak, but high US soybean import costs provide support. Future focus is on imports and South American soybean growth [2] Strategy - The strategy for bean meal is neutral [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2189 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous day; the corn starch 2601 contract was 2487 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.40% [3] - Spot: Liaoning corn was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Jilin corn starch was 2620 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - Market News: As of December 18, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1.744 million tons. Brazil exported 4.426 million tons of corn in the first three weeks of December, with a daily average export volume 45% higher than the previous year [3] Market Analysis - On the supply side, farmers are reluctant to sell. On the demand side, traders are cautious, and feed enterprises make mainly rigid - demand purchases. Inventories are rising but still below historical levels, and future focus is on alternative grain auctions [4][5] Strategy - The strategy for corn is neutral [3]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-24 2、\t2026年1月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷596美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷586美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4627元/吨，涨35元/吨，丁烷4550元/吨，涨36元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷589美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷579美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4573元/吨，涨36元/吨，丁烷4495元/吨，涨35元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） LPG外盘价格走势震荡偏强，但国内市场反应相对平淡，现货整体持稳，局部走低。其中，华东民用气市场主流 成交价格昨日出现下跌，下游采购积极一般，市场成交氛围温和，上游走量优先情绪为主，心态尚可。整体来看， 当前LPG市场驱动相对有限，醚后碳四与民用气价格的倒挂对PG盘面形成额外压制。往前看，我们认为LPG短期 基本面多空因素交织，中期海外供应增长趋势延续，全球平衡表依然是供过于求的预期，市场不具备持续性短缺 的条件，上方阻力依然存在。 策略 单边：中性，短期观望为主 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 油价波动、宏 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - PVC is affected by macro - sentiment and rebounds, with a slight improvement in supply - demand. The overall supply decreases slightly, but the supply end is still abundant. The downstream开工 drops slightly, and the export orders remain resilient. The overall supply - demand improvement is limited. [3] - The caustic soda futures price rebounds due to the anti - "involution" sentiment, with a slight improvement in supply - demand. The spot price is mainly stable, and the demand for low - priced goods improves slightly. The inventory pressure in Shandong is partially relieved, but the national caustic soda inventory accumulates slightly. [4] Group 3: Summary of Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,738 yuan/ton (+147), the East China basis is - 298 yuan/ton (-67), and the South China basis is - 288 yuan/ton (-97) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quotes 4,440 yuan/ton (+80), and the South China calcium carbide method quotes 4,450 yuan/ton (+50) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,780 yuan/ton (-50), the calcium carbide profit is - 134 yuan/ton (-50), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 986 yuan/ton (+116), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 469 yuan/ton (+51), and the PVC export profit is - 0.9 US dollars/ton (+4.7) [1] - Inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory is 32.9 million tons (-1.6), the social PVC inventory is 51.1 million tons (-0.7), the PVC calcium carbide method operation rate is 77.01% (-2.12%), the PVC ethylene method operation rate is 74.06% (-2.61%), and the PVC operation rate is 76.12% (-2.27%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 76.2 million tons (+11.4) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,219 yuan/ton (+38), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 31 yuan/ton (-38) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 720 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,140 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,229 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 585.0 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 246.96 yuan/ton (+130.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 340.39 yuan/ton (+30.00) [2] - Inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 46.47 million tons (+0.76), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.51 million tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.50% (-1.70%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The alumina operation rate is 85.00% (-1.11%), the dyeing and printing operation rate in East China is 62.06% (-0.68%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.62% (+0.00%) [2] Group 4: Summary of Market Analysis PVC - Macro factors: The "15th Five - Year Plan" and the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market boost the demand expectation of PVC. The statements of the financial regulatory authorities and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission strengthen the policy atmosphere [3] - Supply: One more enterprise conducts maintenance this week, and some calcium carbide method enterprises continue to reduce production. The overall supply decreases slightly, but the supply end is still abundant as all new PVC installations in 2025 have been put into production [3] - Demand: The downstream operation drops slightly, with pipes remaining stable and profiles and films decreasing. The downstream purchases at low prices, and the trading volume is light when the futures price rebounds. The export orders remain resilient before the double festivals [3] - Profit: The comprehensive chlor - alkali production profit at the upstream PVC end is repaired to some extent, but it is still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide price drops, resulting in a loss in production profit, and the semi - coke price also drops slightly, with the profit end remaining in a loss state [3] - Other factors: The high - level warehouse receipts put pressure on the PVC futures price. The news of overseas factory closures or bankruptcy applications supports the market sentiment to a certain extent [3] Caustic Soda - Market trend: The caustic soda futures price rebounds due to the anti - "involution" sentiment, with a slight improvement in supply - demand [4] - Supply: The supply - end operation rate drops slightly, but the overall operation is at a high level. The liquid chlorine price is still positive, and the high - level operation of caustic soda is maintained. However, the liquid chlorine price in Shandong is expected to drop in late December, and the cost support may strengthen [4] - Demand: The alumina factory operation is relatively stable, the purchase price is stable, and the non - aluminum demand weakens. The demand for low - priced goods improves marginally, but the supply - end pressure remains as there is no reduction in supply [4] Group 5: Summary of Strategies PVC - Single - side: Fluctuate strongly with the macro situation - Inter - delivery spread: Wait and see - Inter - commodity spread: None [6] Caustic Soda - Single - side: Fluctuate strongly with the macro situation - Inter - delivery spread: Wait and see - Inter - commodity spread: None [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by policy expectations, Fed actions, and Japanese central bank decisions. In the current inflation - expectation game stage, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. Consider buying commodities, stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [1][2][3][4][5] - Be vigilant about the risks of macro - and fundamental resonance if market sentiment turns cold [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations in China have a pendulum effect. The Politburo and Central Economic Work Conference emphasized policies such as a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Multiple ministries responded, and attention should be paid to recent expectations of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts, as well as policies for stabilizing growth or the supply - side. China's November economic data was still under pressure, but foreign trade growth rebounded significantly [1] - The Fed restarted a "restrictive" stance, announcing the purchase of $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days and a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut. The Fed may pause interest rate cuts again. The previous round of the Fed's bond - buying had a limited impact on the market, mainly providing liquidity [2] - The impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike was low. The reversal of carry - trade derivatives had limited impact due to the low proportion of foreign - held Japanese government bonds and the non - significant increase in net long positions of the US dollar against the yen [3] Commodity Analysis - In the non - ferrous metals sector, the long - term supply shortage has not been alleviated, and copper prices reached a record high due to Trump's tariff expectations and mine shutdowns [4][7] - In the energy sector, some countries submitted additional production - cut plans, and there were warnings of oversupply and high inventories. There were also developments in the Ukraine - related negotiations [4] - In the chemical sector, there is "anti - involution" potential in varieties such as methanol, caustic soda, urea, and PTA [4] - In the agricultural products sector, attention should be paid to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather expectations after the China - US peace talks [4] - In the precious metals sector, look for opportunities to buy on dips, but the short - term risk of silver has increased, and the gold - silver ratio has deviated and is in the process of reasonable repair [4] Strategy - Go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [5] Important News - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference proposed measures to stabilize the real estate market, including incremental control, inventory reduction, and supply optimization [7] - The US Navy announced a plan to build new warships as part of Trump's "Golden Fleet" plan, aiming to revitalize the US shipbuilding industry [7] - There were price movements in commodities such as gold, silver, crude oil, and copper, and some commodity futures contracts had significant price changes [7] - Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry plans to issue special bonds to support investment in the US [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both soybeans and peanuts are neutral [1][4][6] Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean market has a generally loose supply - demand pattern, with high port inventories and weak downstream demand, and the price upside is limited. The peanut market is gradually increasing in supply, and the price is expected to be stable with a slight weakness [3][5] Summary by Related Contents Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybean 2605 contract was 4104.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.00 yuan/ton (-0.02%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 96, a change of +1 (32.14%) from the previous day. The spot prices in various regions of Heilongjiang remained flat [1][2] - Market Information: The overall transaction rate of the 210,000 - ton 2022 domestic soybean auction was 62.29%, with high - protein soybeans selling well and low - protein ones having many unsold. The previous import soybean auction's lower transaction rate alleviated supply concerns. The trading shipment speed slowed slightly, and farmers and traders were reluctant to sell [2] - Market Situation: The soybean futures main contract had a narrow - range shock. The supply pressure persisted due to high port inventories (about 7.8 million tons) and lower forward import costs. The demand was weak, with stable southern purchases of Northeast soybeans but lack of terminal consumption growth. The state - reserve purchase provided some support but couldn't change the overall situation [3] Strategy - Neutral [1] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7950.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 12.00 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8055.00 yuan/ton, with no change. The spot basis was PK03 - 1150.00, a change of +12.00 (-1.03%). The national peanut market's general price was stable with a slight decline, and the oil - mill contract prices were stable [4] - Market Information: The peanut futures main contract rebounded after a decline. The peanut market entered the concentrated listing period, with different farmer shipment rhythms in different regions. The supply was increasing. Some traders' prices were slightly soft, and some peanuts met the oil - mill purchase standards. The oil - mill new - season purchases started, and some had large arrivals [5] Strategy - Neutral [6]