公司报告 | 季报点评 联芸科技（688449） 证券研究报告 Q3 扣非净利增超 230%，高端主控芯片放量叠加存储涨价 事件：公司公布2025年第三季度报告。公司2025Q3 收入3.11 亿元（yoy+4.36%）， 归母净利润实现 0.34 亿元（yoy+5.93%），扣非归母净利润实现 0.27 亿元 （yoy+234.57%）。2025 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入9.21 亿元（yoy+11.59%）， 归母净利润实现 0.9 亿元（yoy+23.05%），扣非归母净利润实现 0.62 亿元 （yoy+141.76%）。 点评：中国存储主控龙头，2025Q1-Q3扣非净利润同比增加 141.76%。2025Q3 公司营收和归母净利润增长主要系：受下游需求增长影响，公司营收同比增长， 同时由于高毛利产品收入占比增加，进一步带动公司综合毛利率上升，使得归 属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润大幅增加。 PCIe 4.0/5.0 SSD 主控性能能效双提升，PCIe 4.0 SSD 主控芯片：在 MAP1602 芯片已实现规模商用的基础上，新一代 MAP1606 主控芯片即将推 出。该芯片将 N ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5][13]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 5.348 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.89%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 974 million, up 45.51% [1]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, driven by strong demand in automotive electronics, artificial intelligence, and consumer electronics, which has positively impacted the company's main business [1][3]. - The company is increasing its investment in high-value new product development, optimizing its product structure, and enhancing operational efficiency through improved production processes and quality control [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.348 billion, a 20.89% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 974 million, reflecting a 45.51% growth [1]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the company recorded a revenue of 1.893 billion, a 21.47% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 372 million, up 52.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.256 billion, 1.485 billion, and 1.728 billion respectively [3]. Market Strategy - The company employs a strong brand and dual circulation strategy, promoting its MCC brand products in Europe and the US while focusing on the YJ brand in China and the Asia-Pacific region [2]. - It has established strategic partnerships with leading clients in various industries and invested in a subsidiary in Vietnam to enhance its overseas supply capabilities [2]. Product Development - The company's products are widely used in various sectors, including automotive electronics, AI, clean energy, 5G communications, and consumer electronics [3]. - The company is focusing on the development of third-generation semiconductor chips, particularly SiC power devices, to meet the growing demand in the market [3].

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - In September 2025, total sales of two-wheeled fuel motorcycles reached 1.554 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. Exports were 1.174 million units, up 20.6%, while domestic sales were 380,000 units, down 8.8% [4][10] - For motorcycles above 250cc, sales in September were 87,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%. Exports were 53,000 units, up 39.0%, and domestic sales were 33,000 units, down 12.7% [4][10] - Electric motorcycle sales surged to 32,000 units in September, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 184.5% [20] - The all-terrain vehicle (ATV) domestic factory shipments reached 17,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [20] Summary by Relevant Sections Overall Industry Performance - Total sales in September reached 1.554 million units, with a cumulative total of 12.816 million units for the year, showing a 13% year-on-year increase [5] - Exports for the entire industry were 1.174 million units, up 21%, while domestic sales were 380,000 units, down 9% [5] Two-Wheeled Fuel Motorcycles - Total sales for two-wheeled fuel motorcycles in September were 105,000 units, down 30% year-on-year, with exports at 97,000 units, down 31%, and domestic sales at 8,000 units, down 13% [22] - For motorcycles above 250cc, total sales were 12,000 units, up 30.1% year-on-year, with exports at 7,000 units, up 75.2%, and domestic sales at 5,000 units, down 7.5% [22] Key Companies - Changan Power reported 32,000 units in electric motorcycle sales, a 184.5% increase year-on-year [20] - Longxin General's total sales reached 25,400 units, a 29.6% increase year-on-year, with three-wheeled motorcycle sales at 25,000 units, up 29.6% [26] - Qianjiang Motorcycle's total sales for two-wheeled fuel motorcycles were 37,800 units, down 21% year-on-year, while sales for motorcycles above 250cc were 13,000 units, up 85% [32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company has shown stable revenue performance with a year-on-year increase in revenue of 4.1% for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 9.72 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 18.5% to 770 million yuan [1] - The company is focusing on expanding its automotive thermal management business, which is expected to continue its growth trend [2] - The gross margin has improved to 19.3%, reversing the downward trend observed in the first half of the year, with a net profit margin of 7.8% [3] - The company is positioned as a leader in the refrigeration components sector, with ongoing structural upgrades in its home appliance business and a focus on high-growth areas such as new energy vehicle thermal management [4] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.08 billion yuan, with corresponding dynamic P/E ratios of 13.9x, 11.8x, and 10.2x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The revenue forecast for the years 2025 to 2027 is 13.47 billion yuan, 15.29 billion yuan, and 17.33 billion yuan, with growth rates of 6.26%, 13.50%, and 13.37% respectively [5] - The company’s net profit is expected to grow from 1.08 billion yuan in 2025 to 1.47 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 16.13% [5]

Group 1 - The report identifies key industries that may benefit from the "14th Five-Year Plan," including aerospace equipment, deep-sea technology, and marine industries, suggesting a focus on raw materials, components, and manufacturing tools related to these sectors [12][16] - In the renewable energy sector, the report highlights bonds related to offshore wind power and hydrogen energy, mentioning companies like Qifan Cable and Longi Green Energy as potential beneficiaries [17][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrated circuits, high-end equipment, and industrial mother machines as areas of sustained attention, with specific mention of companies involved in semiconductor design and medical equipment [20][21] Group 2 - The report notes that the convertible bond market saw an overall increase, with the China Securities Convertible Bond Index rising by 1.47% and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index by 1.56% [4][35] - It highlights that 24 industries experienced gains, with defense, electronics, and computer sectors leading the market, while communication and beauty care sectors lagged [4][38] - The report indicates a rise in the weighted average conversion value of convertible bonds, with an average of 101.05 yuan, reflecting a positive trend in market valuation [5][47] Group 3 - The report discusses the supply and terms of convertible bonds, noting no new listings but 11 bonds under primary approval, indicating ongoing market activity [6][70] - It mentions that 12 convertible bonds are expected to trigger adjustments, with a focus on redemption and downshift clauses, suggesting a dynamic regulatory environment [6][70] - The report provides insights into the performance of various convertible bonds, highlighting significant price movements and market trends [4][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance shows significant improvement year-on-year, with revenue reaching 4.176 billion yuan, up 4.34% year-on-year, and a notable recovery in net profit for Q3, which was 0.26 billion yuan compared to negative figures in the same period last year [1][2] - The domestic refractory materials business continues to face pressure, leading to a downward adjustment in net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.9 billion, 3.5 billion, and 5.5 billion yuan respectively [1][2] - The report expresses optimism about the recovery of the refractory materials sector due to the gradual alleviation of intense price competition, supported by the company's overseas operations and the growth of its wet process business [3] Financial Data Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's comprehensive gross margin was 17.6%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s net profit margin for the same period was 2.28%, down 0.68 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by increased credit impairment losses [2] - The financial forecast indicates a projected revenue of 5.739 billion yuan for 2025, with an expected growth rate of 10.53% [5][12] Business Outlook - The report highlights the potential for profit elasticity from the wet process business, with a significant agreement with a client for the procurement of 500,000 tons of sedimentation agents by the end of 2028 [3] - The company is expected to enhance its production capacity through upgrades and modifications to its production lines, which will contribute to expanding its profit margins [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" with a downward adjustment [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing a transformation from a heavy asset investment model to a light asset operation model, which includes extending from a single brand to multiple brands, expanding product offerings from finished wooden doors to upstream raw materials and downstream services, and shifting sales channels from offline to online [2][3]. - Financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025 shows a significant decline, with revenue of 1.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 43% year-on-year, and a net loss attributable to the parent company of 41 million yuan [1][3]. - The company has seen growth in its franchise service channel, with revenue of 100 million yuan, an increase of 21% year-on-year, while the export channel revenue increased by 86% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to have a net profit of -9.19 million yuan, with earnings per share (EPS) of -0.05 yuan [3][5]. - Revenue is expected to decline significantly in 2025 to 1.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 38.03% compared to 2024 [5][11]. - The company's EBITDA is projected to be 261.90 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a substantial drop from previous years [5][11]. Business Model Adjustments - The company is shifting its organizational structure from a vertical to a flat and matrix-style approach to enhance collaboration and operational efficiency [2]. - A mixed model of agency, direct sales, and direct partnership systems is being established to optimize pricing strategies [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set at HKD 16.33, indicating a potential upside of 10%-20% over the next six months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue increase of 3.7% year-on-year to USD 400 million in Q3 2025, driven by demand in the sports category and new customer acquisitions [1]. - The company aims to expand its total production capacity by 20 million pairs starting in 2025, focusing on enhancing production efficiency in Indonesia and Bangladesh [2]. - The three-year plan (2023-2025) is on track to achieve a 10% operating profit margin and a low double-digit compound annual growth rate in after-tax profits [3]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of approximately 70% in 2025 and 2026, returning up to USD 60 million annually to shareholders through share buybacks and special dividends [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue increase of 1.7% year-on-year to USD 1.18 billion, with manufacturing revenue up 1.6% to USD 1.15 billion [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) decreased by 3.1% to USD 27.7 due to a lower average price in the sports category [1]. Production Capacity Expansion - The company is set to enhance its production capacity by 20 million pairs, with new facilities expected to be operational by the second half of 2026 [2]. - The production efficiency in Indonesia and the Philippines is anticipated to improve gradually starting in the second half of 2025 [2]. Strategic Goals - The company is focused on diversifying its product mix and expanding its customer base, particularly in the luxury and high-end fashion categories [3]. - The acquisition of a small handbag and accessories factory in Vietnam aims to elevate the quality and efficiency of its manufacturing capabilities in this segment [3]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to USD 1.58 billion, USD 1.66 billion, and USD 1.76 billion respectively, with net profits projected at USD 160 million, USD 170 million, and USD 190 million [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 42.34 CNY, indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [8][19]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing steady growth in its CMP polishing pad business, with a 51% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, establishing its leading position in the domestic market [2]. - The sales of CMP polishing liquids and cleaning liquids have also shown robust growth, with a 42% increase in revenue compared to the same period last year, contributing to overall sales growth [3]. - The company is expanding its semiconductor display materials product line, with significant market share gains and positive client feedback on new products [4]. - Initial sales of advanced packaging materials are beginning to ramp up, and the company is making progress in its photolithography business, aligning with its expectations [5]. - The company is positioned to become a high-end materials platform enterprise, with future growth driven by advancements in optoelectronic semiconductor materials [2][6]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of approximately 9.45 billion CNY for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 4.20%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 190 million and 220 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 19.89% to 38.82% [1]. - For the fiscal years 2023 to 2027, the company anticipates a steady increase in revenue, with projections of 2.67 billion CNY in 2023, growing to 5.69 billion CNY by 2027 [7][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 222 million CNY in 2023 to 1.21 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a compound annual growth rate of approximately 27.93% [7][14].

Core Conclusions - The report explores the long-term trend of excess returns across various primary industries, identifying food and beverage, home appliances, and electrical equipment as the sectors with the highest historical likelihood of achieving sustained excess returns over three years [1][2] - The consumer sector shows a greater probability of long-term excess returns compared to other industries, attributed to its stable "ballast" characteristics [2][10] - Cyclical industries generally have a lower probability of achieving sustained excess returns due to short-term inventory cycles, while the electrical equipment sector benefits from ongoing demand, leading to a higher historical probability of long-term excess returns compared to other cyclical industries [2][15] Industry Analysis Food and Beverage, Home Appliances, and Electrical Equipment - These three industries have the highest sample counts for "three-year trend excess," indicating a historical tendency for long-term excess returns [2][8] - The excess returns in food and beverage and home appliances can be divided into two phases: one of pricing boom and another of pricing stability, with ROE showing rapid growth and stability exceeding the overall market [10][11] Electrical Equipment - The electrical equipment sector has benefited from two peaks in power and grid construction from 2003 to 2010, and from 2019 to 2023, driven by domestic carbon neutrality initiatives and global grid reinvestment [15][20] - The core logic is based on the "resonance of global grid capital expenditure," which supports the sector's long-term growth [15] TMT Industries (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) - Currently, the industries that have achieved excess returns for three consecutive years include electronics, communications, media, non-bank financials, and banking [2][20] - The continuation of excess returns in TMT sectors is influenced by the market beta at the time of excess formation and the industry's own profit cycle [3][20] - The electronics sector, despite significant underperformance from late 2014 to mid-2015, maintained a positive three-year rolling excess return due to its resilient fundamentals [3][20] - The media sector often fails to extend excess returns into the fourth year due to fundamental challenges and policy shifts affecting the industry [3][20] - The telecommunications sector has shown consistent excess returns, particularly during the AI industry trend, which is expected to continue [21][23] Financial Sector - The probability of non-bank financials and banking sectors extending their excess returns into the fourth year after three consecutive years is relatively low, at 4% and 6% respectively [3][32] - Excess returns in the financial sector typically occur during market risk-off periods or when policy expectations rise, but can diminish if market focus shifts to high-growth sectors [32]