Group 1 - Quantum computing is viewed as a significant direction for future technological development, utilizing principles of quantum mechanics for information processing, enabling ultra-fast parallel computing and exponential speedup for specific problems [2][10] - The global quantum industry is expected to grow at an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of 44.8% from 2023 to 2028, reaching a market size of $10.54 billion by 2027 and potentially $811.7 billion by 2035 [17][14] - The quantum computing industry chain includes upstream components like measurement and control systems, low-temperature devices, and software development tools, midstream quantum computer manufacturing, and downstream applications across various fields [17][16] Group 2 - China has made significant strides in quantum computing, with the first research group established in 2003 and the first domestically produced quantum computer prototype released in 2020, with the "Zu Chongzhi III" superconducting quantum computer expected to be unveiled in 2025 [11][10] - The quantum computing measurement and control system is crucial for the operation of quantum computers, with advancements in automation and integration expected in the future [27][20] - The quantum computing software system is still in its early stages, characterized by fragmentation and diversity, with over 100 global quantum software startups, while China has only a few teams capable of providing real quantum computing services [33][40] Group 3 - The downstream of the quantum computing industry connects technology with market needs, primarily consisting of quantum computing cloud service providers and industry application parties, facilitating the early cultivation of the industry ecosystem [36][40] - Current applications of quantum computing are focused on quantum simulation, quantum combinatorial optimization, and quantum linear algebra, with successful applications in various sectors including scientific research, chemical engineering, national defense, and finance [40][36] - The quantum chip is the core hardware of quantum computers, with various types including superconducting, silicon spin, NV center, trapped ions, neutral atoms, and photonic technologies, with superconducting technology being the most mature [20][18]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The necessity of a reserve requirement ratio cut is increasing due to liquidity pressure on banks' liability side in Q4, but the possibility of an interest rate cut requires further observation of economic data and tariff game impacts [3][4] - If a reserve requirement ratio cut occurs, it may drive down short - term and certificate of deposit rates; if an interest rate cut occurs, the magnitude is crucial, and the bond market may experience a small decline in interest rates, but the downward space is limited [48][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 History of Q4 Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts - In the past 5 years, except for 2021, policy rates were generally cut twice a year but not in Q4. In 2020, cuts were in H1; in 2024, in H2; in 2022, once each in H1 and H2, mostly by 10BP, with 20BP cuts in March 2020 and September 2024 [1][10] - In 2021, there was no interest rate cut, but the 1 - year LPR was cut by 5BP in Q4. In 2024, the policy rate was cut by 20BP in September and the LPR by 25BP in October [10] - From 2020 - 2022, reserve requirement ratio cuts were about twice a year, once each in H1 and H2, and there were cuts in Q4 of 2021 - 2022. In 2020, affected by the pandemic, comprehensive and targeted cuts were used in H1 [11] 3.2 Central Bank's Stance on Monetary Policy - After the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in early May this year, the policy focus shifted to the implementation of existing policies, with room for flexible adjustment based on the situation [2] - The "opportunistic" in "opportunistic reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" has three meanings: adverse changes in the economic fundamentals, weakened effects of expansionary fiscal policies, and a sharp decline in the capital market [2][17] - Currently, the necessity for monetary policy to support expansionary fiscal policies may be decreasing, and the focus of monetary policy may be on supporting economic growth, which depends on macro - economic conditions [2][18][19] 3.3 Possibility of Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts This Year 3.3.1 Necessity of a Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut - Banks' liability side faces liquidity pressure in Q4, increasing the necessity of a cut. The high maturity scale of medium - and long - term liquidity, the need to supplement liquidity regularly under the "structural liquidity shortage" framework, and the special situation this year (large - scale high - interest time deposit maturities and a narrowing M2 - M1 gap) all contribute [20][21][24] 3.3.2 Possibility and Boundaries of an Interest Rate Cut - Since 2024, the central bank launched "policy combos" under different domestic and international macro - environments. Currently, there are similarities and differences, leading to a divergence in market expectations for loose monetary policy [28] - Although Q4 economic data is expected to slow down compared to Q3, it doesn't directly mean a window for policy intensification. It is necessary to observe economic performance from November to December and the impact of the tariff game [39][40] - To support the real economy, a cut in structural monetary policy tools may come first. And a cut may not be the only way to promote a reasonable rise in prices and reduce the real economy's financing costs. Also, a cut may put pressure on banks' net interest margins [45][46] 3.4 Impact on the Bond Market - The probability of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts is increasing marginally, but it is not a high - probability event. Reserve requirement ratio cuts and cuts in structural monetary policy tools may come first [48] - If a reserve requirement ratio cut occurs, it may drive down short - term and certificate of deposit rates. If an interest rate cut occurs, the magnitude is crucial, and the bond market may experience a small decline in interest rates, but the downward space is limited by the current low - interest rate level and policy imagination space brought by the "14th Five - Year Plan" [49][50]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The copper mining supply growth is expected to decline in 2025, with an overall growth rate of approximately -0.12%, down from earlier projections and 2024 levels [4][8][11] - The TC benchmark has been significantly lowered, leading to relaxed mining costs, while copper prices are expected to rise significantly, maintaining high profit margins for copper mines [4][8] - The global copper mining industry is currently in a defensive capital expenditure phase, limiting new expansions and leading to high interference rates, which may hinder long-term growth [4][40][44] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The expected global copper production decrease in 2025 is estimated at 23,000 tons, with various mining companies contributing to both increases and decreases in production [9][10] - Major contributors to production increases include expansions from companies like Rio Tinto and MMG, while reductions are attributed to incidents at Kamoa-Kakula and El Teniente [8][9] - The copper price typically leads the copper mining cycle by about one year, suggesting that the high profit margins observed in 2024-2025 should support increased production in 2025-2026, although growth may remain subdued due to high interference rates [4][44] Group 3: Company Focus - Companies such as Zijin Mining, Minmetals Resources, and Luoyang Molybdenum are highlighted as key players in the copper mining sector, actively expanding their resource bases through acquisitions and partnerships [4][45][50] - Zijin Mining has significant copper reserves and is expected to see continued production growth, with a projected CAGR of 10% from 2024 to 2028 [56] - Minmetals Resources is focused on upstream metal resources, with substantial copper and zinc reserves, and has shown a significant increase in copper production in the first half of 2025 [60]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025 [1][2] - The company is focusing on brand upgrades and product line expansion, leading to increased sales and average selling prices [3] - The strategy of concentrating on core products has resulted in the successful launch of several billion-yuan products [4] - Marketing innovations have been emphasized, with increased brand visibility and endorsements from celebrities [5] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.961 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.83%, and a net profit of 405 million yuan, up 149.12% [1] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 62.81%, an increase of 3.39 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin rose to 8.17%, up 4.54 percentage points [2] - The company expects revenues of 6.316 billion yuan, 7.010 billion yuan, and 7.753 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 420 million yuan, 564 million yuan, and 690 million yuan [5] Brand Strategy - The company is implementing a tiered brand strategy, focusing on product innovation and youth-oriented reform [3] - The first-tier brand, Six God, is expanding its core categories, while the second-tier brand, Baicaoji, is collaborating with academic institutions for product development [3] Marketing and Innovation - The company has increased its marketing investments, resulting in a significant rise in brand exposure, with 5.8 billion impressions in Q3 2025, a 50% increase year-on-year [5] - New product launches include innovative items such as the Six God refreshing fragrance shower gel and Baicaoji's revolutionary Xian Cao oil [4]

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 2025 年 10 月 28 日 作者 谭逸鸣 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525050005 tanyiming@tfzq.com 韩晨晨 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525070007 hanchenchen@tfzq.com 近期报告 1 《固定收益：哪些转债或受益于"十 五五"？- 可 转 债周 报 20251026》 2025-10-27 2 《固定收益：迎接"超级央行周"- 海外跟踪周报 20251026 》 2025-10-26 3 《固定收益：信用利率再背离-信用 策略周报 20251026》 2025-10-26 一文全览"全球主权债" 证券研究报告 境外债专题 主权债市场概览 从存量市场来看： 1）全口径市场：截至 2025 年 10 月 16 日，全球主权债存量为 78.97 万亿 美元，市场由美国、日本和中国主导，三国合计占近六成份额。在到期结 构上，市场整体呈现期限分布较均匀的特征，2027 年底前到期的债务占比 约为 34.78%。 2）美元口径市场（剔除美国发行）：截至 2025 年 10 月 16 日，存量约 1.59 万亿美 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price adjustment due to external uncertainties and anticipated recovery in domestic demand [5][7]. Core Views - The textile industry is facing significant external uncertainties, but the large-scale and continuously upgrading domestic demand market is seen as a stabilizing factor for high-quality development [2]. - The company is focusing on product design and innovation, aiming to lead industry trends through diverse product offerings and continuous breakthroughs in design and materials [3]. - The company is enhancing its omni-channel strategy by integrating online and offline channels, improving retail management capabilities, and optimizing e-commerce operations across various platforms [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 500 million, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 50 million, down 29% year-on-year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company’s revenue was 1.6 billion, a decline of 14%, with a net profit of 160 million, down 46% year-on-year [1]. - The financial forecast for 2025-2027 estimates net profits of 360 million, 390 million, and 420 million respectively, with EPS of 0.43, 0.47, and 0.50 [5][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected revenue for 2025 is 2.73 billion, with a growth rate of -9.37%, and the EBITDA is expected to be 470 million [6]. - The company’s P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 16.68, 15.40, and 14.36 respectively [6]. - The company’s total assets are projected to be 4.79 billion in 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 17.43% [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption of central bank bond purchases is mainly due to the objective need for base - money injection, and factors such as bond market supply - demand and yield curve shape no longer pose major constraints [2][17]. - After the resumption of bond purchases, the bond market curve may initially show a flattening trend, but in the future, it may tend to steepen, and attention should be paid to potential adjustment pressures after the positive news is realized [4][30]. - If there is no further easing expectation, the current 5BP pricing of the 10 - year active treasury bond may be relatively sufficient [4][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Year: Expectations' Repeated Fluctuations and Disappointments - In 2024 from August to December, the central bank's cumulative net bond - buying scale was 100 billion yuan. In January 2025, it announced a phased suspension of bond purchases in the open market [9]. - Reasons for the suspension in early 2025 include controllable government bond supply pressure, the availability of alternative liquidity management tools, and the need to avoid excessive market consensus expectations and potential interest - rate risks [9]. - From the perspective of curve regulation, the operation space was relatively limited at that time. Net selling of bonds to tighten liquidity was unlikely, and achieving a balance in "buying short and selling long" was restricted by the central bank's long - term bond holdings [10]. - Market expectations for the resumption of bond purchases have repeatedly fermented since June, mainly due to the need to improve the monetary policy toolbox, the market's expectation during the bond market adjustment, and the large - scale banks' increased short - term bond purchases [14][15]. 3.2 Reasons for Resuming Bond Purchases - The resumption is mainly due to the objective need for base - money injection. In the fourth quarter, the maturity scale of medium - and long - term liquidity is high, and there is also potential demand for liquidity, such as high - interest time - deposit maturities and the potential for new policy - based financial instruments to drive credit [17]. - Bond supply scale and the desired interest - rate level are not the main considerations for resuming bond purchases. Currently, government bond supply is nearing the end, and the bond market has previously faced interest - rate increases without resuming bond purchases [23]. - The weakening of bond demand, as reflected by the widening of the primary - secondary market spread of 30 - year treasury bonds since July, provides a logical basis for resuming bond purchases [3][27]. - In terms of the form of bond - buying operations, the scale may be more cautiously controlled this year, "buying short" may dominate, and "selling long" may not necessarily occur [3][29]. 3.3 Bond Market Pricing - Logically, bond purchases will benefit short - term bonds and steepen the curve. However, if large - scale banks have already held a large amount of short - term bonds and reduce their secondary - market replenishment, the impact on the curve may converge [4][30]. - On October 27, the curve flattened, which may indicate that the bond market's strength was driven by the restoration of buying confidence. Resuming bond purchases does not necessarily mean a prelude to reserve - requirement ratio cuts or interest - rate cuts [4][30]. - If there is no further easing expectation, the current 5BP pricing of the 10 - year active treasury bond may be relatively sufficient. In the future, the curve may steepen, and attention should be paid to potential adjustment pressures [4][31].

Group 1 - The overall probability of achieving long-term excess returns in the consumer sector is greater compared to other industries, with consumer stocks serving as a stable "ballast" [1][18][19] - The food and beverage, and home appliance sectors show a trend of excess returns that can be divided into two phases: pricing boom and pricing stability, with ROE growth surpassing the overall market [1][19] - The electrical equipment sector benefits from sustained demand and has a higher historical probability of achieving long-term excess returns compared to other cyclical industries [1][19] Group 2 - Recent industry trends indicate that coal, oil and petrochemicals, electrical equipment, machinery, electronics, pharmaceuticals, textiles, automotive, non-bank finance, public utilities, and retail are on an upward trajectory, while food and beverage, home appliances, banking, real estate, and environmental protection are declining [2][22] - The report predicts that industries such as rail transit equipment, automotive parts, commercial vehicles, and lighting equipment will perform well in the next four weeks [2][22] Group 3 - The convertible bond market saw an increase this week, with the China Securities convertible bond index rising by 1.47% and the weighted average rising by 1.37% [3][28] - The overall market weighted average conversion value increased to 101.05 yuan, with a conversion premium rate of 40.44% [3][28][29] - The report highlights that sectors like defense, electronics, and computers led the market gains, while communications and beauty care lagged [3][28] Group 4 - The report on Dinglong Co. indicates a projected revenue of approximately 945 million yuan for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of about 4.20% [7] - The CMP polishing pad business is expected to continue growing, with a 51% increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 compared to the previous year [7] - The semiconductor display materials segment is also seeing a steady increase in market share, with new products receiving positive feedback [7] Group 5 - Yangjie Technology reported a revenue of 5.348 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.89% [8] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in automotive electronics and artificial intelligence, which are driving order and shipment growth [8] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 1.256 billion, 1.485 billion, and 1.728 billion yuan respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][17]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth with a slight decline in profit margins due to increased tax burdens, but overall performance is improving [1][2]. - The report highlights the potential for improved profitability through supply-side reforms in the steel industry, which may lead to better pricing and demand dynamics [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 15.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.19%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 496 million, down 24.3% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.367 billion, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 208 million, down 8.5% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 11.17%, an increase of 1.97 percentage points year-on-year, with a single-ton gross profit of 500, an increase of 49.5 year-on-year [2]. Production and Cost Analysis - The production volume for the first nine months of 2025 was approximately 3.6102 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.06%, with Q3 production at about 1.2477 million tons, up 9% year-on-year [2]. - The report indicates that the increase in single-ton tax expenses has negatively impacted net profit, with Q3 tax expenses amounting to 69 million, an increase of 850,000 year-on-year [2]. Cash Flow and Expense Management - The company maintained a strong cash flow position with a cash flow from operations (CFO) of 378 million for the first three quarters, an increase of 51 million year-on-year [3]. - The period expense ratio for the first three quarters was 6.78%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, with various expense categories showing mixed trends [3]. Strategic Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of the steel supply-side reform, which is expected to enhance the company's performance by potentially increasing order releases and improving profit margins [4]. - The company is focusing on technological advancements and automation in its production processes, which may contribute to additional profit streams [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company experienced a temporary pressure on performance in Q3 2025, with revenue of 6.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.61%, and a net profit of 0.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.18%. However, the company is focusing on optimizing its production of cellulose acetate butyrate and aims to quickly bring new capacity for isooctanoic acid (50,000 tons/year) into production, which is expected to contribute to long-term growth [1][4]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with signed but uncompleted orders amounting to approximately 16.41 billion yuan as of Q3 2025, and new engineering orders signed in Q3 totaling 3.73 billion yuan [2][4]. - The company has shown improved cost control, with a period expense ratio of 9.82%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.19 percentage points. The cash flow remains positive, with a net cash flow from operations of 1.19 billion yuan [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.941 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.63%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 153 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.14% [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 13.85%, down 6.97 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to declining chemical product prices, such as a 15.58% drop in the average price of octanol [2]. - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 265 million, 330 million, and 415 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.47, 17.24, and 13.71 [4][5].