固定收益 | 固定收益点评 关税升级：4 月重现 or TACO 交易 证券研究报告 海外时政点评 特朗普提出对华征收 100%关税，打破中美关税"平静期"。 当地时间 10 月 10 日，特朗普在社交媒体发帖，称将从 11 月 1 日开始对 中国征收 100%的关税，并对所有关键软件实施出口管制。 9 月中下旬，市场对中美关税的情绪偏乐观，对中美元首在 10 月底的 APEC 会议上会晤怀有期待，9 月 14-15 日的马德里经贸会谈，中美就 TikTok 等 问题进行了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的沟通，9 月 19 日中美元首通话，通 话是务实、积极、建设性的。 而国庆假期后，情绪有所转变。中方宣布对超硬材料、稀土设备和原辅料、 钬等 5 种中重稀土、锂电池和人造石墨负极材料相关物项实施出口管制； 对美国对造船等行业 301 调查限制措施实施反制；对高通公司开展反垄断 调查等。特朗普宣布计划对中国商品征收 100%关税。 关税和贸易谈判，后续或如何演绎？ 我们认为，不断升级的贸易措施计划，或是为未来的谈判增加筹码。中方 加强对超硬材料、稀土设备和原辅料等的出口管制，是从 11 月 8 日实施； 而特朗普宣称的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overseas market was significantly impacted by various factors this week, including government shutdowns, potential tariff hikes, and central bank policies. Market volatility increased, and risk - averse sentiment rose sharply [1][7]. - The opinions of Fed officials were divided this week, but the market's expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 both increased [2][3]. - The US government shutdown continued to affect the economy, and the situation of Sino - US tariffs and trade relations was tense [4][5]. - The overall overseas economic situation showed mixed trends. Some indicators improved, while others declined, and the future economic outlook was still uncertain [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overseas Market One - Week Review - **Equity Markets**: US stocks rose first and then fell sharply on Friday. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq fell 2.43%, 2.73%, and 2.53% respectively for the week ending October 10. European and Asian markets also showed different trends, with the German DAX and London FTSE 100 falling, while the Nikkei 225 rose [11]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar rose this week. The government shutdown and tariff risks increased risk - averse sentiment, and the possible loose monetary policy of Japan's new prime - ministerial candidate also pushed up the dollar. The dollar index rose 1.13% for the week [11]. - **Interest Rates**: US Treasury yields declined. The government shutdown and tariff events increased expectations of interest rate cuts and risk - averse sentiment, leading to a rise in US Treasuries. The 2Y and 10Y US Treasuries yields fell 6bp and 8bp respectively for the week [12]. - **Commodities**: Gold rose, while crude oil and copper fell. The government shutdown and Sino - US trade conflicts increased the demand for safe - haven assets [12]. 3.2 Overseas Policies and Important News 3.2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - Fed officials' stances were divided this week. Kashkari and Barr were hawkish, Milan and Williams were dovish, and Musalem and Waller were neutral. The September FOMC meeting minutes showed that most officials thought further policy easing this year might be appropriate [27]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 increased. As of October 11, the probability of two more interest rate cuts this year rose to 91.7%, and the market expected three more cuts in 2026 [3]. 3.2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - **Government Shutdown**: It has lasted for 12 days, reducing the US economic output by about $15 billion per week. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI report on October 24, and the federal government employee lay - off process has officially started [4]. - **Sino - US Tariffs and Trade**: China implemented export controls on certain items, counter - measures against US 301 investigations, and an anti - monopoly investigation into Qualcomm. Trump said the US would impose a 100% tariff on China starting November 1 and implement export controls on all key software [5]. 3.3 Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.3.1 Overall Prosperity - Bloomberg's consensus expectations for GDP growth rates in the Eurozone and the US increased. As of October 10, Bloomberg expected the US economy to grow 1.79% in 2025 and the Eurozone economy to grow 1.3% [35]. - The Fed's real - time prediction model slightly lowered the GDP forecast. The New York Fed's Nowcast model lowered the Q3 US real GDP growth rate expectation to 2.34%, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model lowered it to 3.8% [37]. 3.3.2 Employment - The number of people receiving unemployment benefits decreased more than expected. As of the week ending September 20, the initial jobless claims were 218,000, and as of the week ending September 13, the continuing jobless claims decreased to 1.926 million [43]. 3.3.3 Demand - US retail sales slightly declined, airport security checks continued to be higher than last year. The real - estate market activity showed a significant recovery, with mortgage rates falling and mortgage application activity decreasing [49]. 3.3.4 Production - The production of US crude steel and the operation of refineries were stable, better than the same period last year. As of the week ending October 4, the weekly crude steel output was 1.749 million short tons, and the refinery capacity utilization rate was 92.4% [55]. 3.3.5 Shipping - International freight rates showed mixed trends this week. The Drewry World Container Freight Index (WCI) fell 1.1%, while the Baltic Dry Index, Panamax Freight Index, and Capesize Freight Index rose [57]. - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) fell. The export container indices of Ningbo and Shanghai rose, but the CCFI fell 6.7% week - on - week [60]. 3.3.6 Price - US retail gasoline prices continued to decline. As of October 10, the average price of AAA - grade gasoline was $3.089 per gallon. The inflation expectations in the US also decreased this week [62]. 3.3.7 Financial Conditions - The US financial stress index was stable. As of October 8, the OFR US financial stress index was - 1.12. The credit spread of CCC high - yield bonds rose, and the spread between SOFR and overnight reverse repurchase agreements decreased [66]. 3.4 Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders - Next week (October 13 - 17, 2025), key events include Fed Chairman Powell's speech, statements from multiple Fed officials, Sino - US tariff developments, and the release of US retail data, PPI inflation, and industrial output data (which may be delayed due to the government shutdown) [7].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [11] Core Insights - The pig farming sector is experiencing comprehensive losses, with a focus on the expected differences in the sector [3][15] - The dairy and beef sectors are anticipated to enter a new cycle, with opportunities in the beef industry [4][17] - The pet industry is witnessing a rise of domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports [5][19] - The poultry sector is focusing on breeding gaps and improving consumer demand for yellow chickens [6][24] - The seed industry is waiting for a turnaround, emphasizing opportunities in biological breeding [7][27] - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance [8][28] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The industry is in comprehensive losses, with a significant drop in pig prices, down 9.37% to 11.41 CNY/kg as of October 11 [15] - The average loss per pig is 77.09 CNY, with a notable increase in the number of sows being culled [15][16] - Key companies to focus on include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with valuations at historical lows [3][16] Beef Sector - Raw milk prices are stabilizing, and the beef cycle may have started, with a focus on companies with mother cow resources [4][17] - The average price of live cattle is 27.16 CNY/kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.6% [17] Pet Industry - Domestic brands are rapidly growing, with significant sales increases in pet food, particularly on platforms like Douyin [5][18] - Pet food exports reached 230,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.23% [19] Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector is focusing on breeding imports, with a 21.78% year-on-year decrease in breeding stock [21][22] - Yellow chicken prices are expected to improve due to supply constraints and increasing consumer demand [24] Seed Industry - The seed industry is expected to see a turnaround, with a focus on high-yield production and the integration of advanced agricultural technologies [27] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [27] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is highlighted for its increasing market share and consistent performance in the feed sector [28] - The sector is expected to recover as smaller companies exit the market, leading to improved conditions [28]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that macroeconomic sentiment fluctuations have led to relatively strong performance in precious metals, with gold and silver prices rising due to heightened risk aversion amid geopolitical tensions and expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][20][21] - The report emphasizes the impact of new export control policies on rare earths, which are expected to strengthen China's competitive edge in the industry and have long-term implications for the entire supply chain [1][3] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper prices have risen, reaching 85,910 CNY/ton, driven by supply shocks and increased export expectations, despite weak domestic demand [1][12] - Aluminum prices increased to 20,980 CNY/ton, with slight reductions in theoretical production capacity due to regional capacity transfers and maintenance [1][15] - Gold prices reached an average of 871.03 CNY/gram, up 3.99% from the previous week, while silver prices rose to 10,856 CNY/kg, up 6.72% [1][20] Minor Metals - Antimony prices have decreased, with 2 high bismuth antimony ingot at 166,500 CNY/ton, reflecting a weak market due to ongoing supply issues and cautious demand [2] - The report notes that the antimony market remains weak, with limited replenishment observed post-holiday [2] Rare Earths - The report discusses the impact of new export control policies on the rare earth industry, with prices for light rare earths slightly decreasing while medium and heavy rare earths saw minor increases [3] - The integration of separation plants is ongoing, and processing fees have risen, indicating a potential upward trend in valuations for the sector [3] Outlook - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum for potential investment opportunities based on the current market dynamics [1][19]

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 净利润断层策略今年累计绝对收益 59.55% 戴维斯双击策略 戴维斯双击即指以较低的市盈率买入具有成长潜力的股票，待成长性显现、 市盈率相应提高后卖出，获得乘数效应的收益，即 EPS 和 PE 的"双击"。 策略在 2010-2017 年回测期内实现了 26.45%的年化收益，超额基准 21.08%。 今年以来，策略累计绝对收益 58.33%，超额中证 500 指数 29.12%，本周策 略超额中证 500 指数-0.55%。本期组合于 2025-05-06 日开盘调仓，截至 2025-10-10 日，本期组合超额基准指数 12.27%。 基于投资者偏好因子构建增强沪深 300 组合，历史回测超额收益稳定。本 年组合相对沪深 300 指数超额收益为 17.50%；本周超额收益为 1.38%；本 月超额收益为 1.38%。 风险提示：模型基于历史数据，存在失效的风险；市场风格变化风险。 2025 年 10 月 12 日 作者 净利润断层策略 净利润断层策略是基本面与技术面共振双击下的选股模式，其核心有两点： "净利润"，指通常意义上的业绩超预期；"断层"，指盈 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since August, the pace of changes in the supply - demand structure of the convertible bond market has accelerated. On the demand side, insurance funds have rapidly and significantly reduced their holdings of convertible bonds, while the demand from public funds has remained stable. On the supply side, although the number of forced redemptions has increased significantly since August, the enthusiasm for new convertible bond proposals has been high, and the review speed has marginally accelerated [1][10][14]. - The A - share market fluctuated sharply this week. The current A - share market valuation has significantly recovered. Large - scale equipment renewal and consumer product trade - in measures are expected to boost domestic demand, and the export growth rate may decline. The Fed has re - entered the interest rate cut cycle, and the weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and the capital side is expected to gradually start [27]. - Considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure of convertible bonds is expected to be low. The risk of a correction in convertible bond valuations has been temporarily alleviated. However, in the context of stock market volatility and the strong "taking - profits" sentiment of institutions in the fourth quarter, the short - term profit - making effect of the convertible bond market may be weak. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunities of convertible bonds in a volatile market [28]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special Topic and Outlook 1.1 What are the Highlights of New Convertible Bond Issues? - Since August, the demand - side of the convertible bond market has seen insurance funds significantly reducing their holdings, while public funds have increased their positions. On the supply - side, new convertible bond proposals have been actively submitted, and the review speed has accelerated. For example, in August, 18 new convertible bond proposals passed the board of directors, reaching the level of March 2023. In September, 17 proposals passed the general meeting of shareholders, and 7 passed the listing committee review, reaching the level of January 2024 [1][10][14]. - As of October 10, there are 4 convertible bond proposals awaiting issuance after obtaining the CSRC's approval for registration, and 8 public convertible bond proposals have passed the listing committee review, with a total scale of 530.5 million yuan. The industry distribution of these convertible bonds is mainly in TMT, advanced manufacturing, and cyclical industries [15][20]. 1.2 Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the A - share market fluctuated sharply. Before the holiday, the A - share market rose, with the new energy industry chain and semiconductors leading the gains. After the holiday, the market first rose and then fell. The current A - share market valuation has recovered, and domestic demand is expected to be boosted, but the export growth rate may decline [27]. - In the convertible bond market, the subsequent issuance pressure is expected to be low. The short - term profit - making effect may be weak, and attention should be paid to band - trading opportunities. Industries to focus on include popular themes such as semiconductors and AI, domestic - demand - oriented sectors, and central state - owned enterprises under the China - specific valuation system [28][29]. 2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 2.1 The Equity Market Style is Differentiated, and Pro - cyclical Sectors are Strengthening - From September 29 to October 10, the equity market showed mixed performance. The market style was more inclined to large - cap growth stocks. 26 Shenwan industry indices rose, and 5 declined. The non - ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemical industries led the gains [32][34]. 2.2 The Convertible Bond Market Rose Narrowly, and the Premium Rate for 100 - yuan Par Value Rebounded - From September 29 to October 10, the convertible bond market rose. The average daily trading volume decreased. Most individual bonds rose. The non - ferrous metals, beauty care, and non - bank financial industries led the gains in the convertible bond market, while the communication industry declined [38][39]. - The weighted conversion value of the entire market increased, and the premium rate rose. The median price of convertible bonds increased, and the number of medium - and low - priced convertible bonds decreased [45][49]. 2.3 High - frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 2.3.1 Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuations of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds increased. Among different par - value convertible bonds, the valuation of 80 - 90 yuan par - value convertible bonds increased more significantly. The valuations of AA + and AA - rated convertible bonds decreased, while those of other ratings increased. The valuations of large - cap and small - cap convertible bonds increased significantly, while those of other scales decreased [60]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have rebounded from the bottom [60]. 2.3.2 Market Index Performance - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings and scales rose. Since 2023, high - rated AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while low - rated convertible bonds have shown weaker anti - decline ability and greater rebound strength [71]. 3. Tracking of Convertible Bond Supply and Terms 3.1 This Week's Primary Proposals Issuance - This week, there were no newly listed convertible bonds, and there were 3 convertible bonds awaiting listing, with a total scale of 730.2 million yuan. The number of primary approvals was 10 [76]. - From the beginning of 2023 to October 10, 2025, there were 103 convertible bond proposals in total, with a total scale of 15.8329 billion yuan. The number and scale of proposals at different stages vary [77]. 3.2 Downward Revision & Redemption Clauses - This week, 9 convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revisions, 4 announced no downward revisions, 0 proposed downward revisions, and 1 actually carried out a downward revision. Six convertible bonds were expected to trigger redemptions, 0 announced no redemptemptempt 0 announced no redemptions, and 5 announced early redemptions [5][83][84]. - As of the end of this week, there were 0 convertible bonds in the put - option declaration period and 9 in the company's capital - reduction repayment declaration period [88].

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 量化择时周报：缓和预期仍存，调整空间或有限 缓和预期仍存，调整空间或有限 节前周报(20250928)认为：进入国庆长假，假期的不确定性或对市场风险 偏好有所压制；WIND 全 A 趋势线位于 6184 点附近，赚钱效应约为 0.65%， 仍然为正，在赚钱效应转负之前，建议耐心持有。考虑长假的不确定性， 可调仓红利板块应对。 WIND 全 A 上周下跌 0.36%，市值维度上，上周代 表小市值股票的中证 2000 下跌 0.06%，中盘股中证 500 下跌 0.19%，沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，上证 50 下跌 0.47%;上周中信一级行业中，表现较强行业 包括有色金属、煤炭，有色金属上涨 4.35%，传媒、消费者服务表现较弱， 传媒下跌 3.58%。上周成交活跃度上，煤炭、钢铁资金继续流入明显。 从择时体系来看，我们定义的用来区别市场整体环境的 wind 全 A 长期均 线（120 日）和短期均线（20 日）的距离继续缩小，最新数据显示 20 日 线收于 6237，120 日线收于 5525 点，短期均线继续位于长线均线之上， 两线差值由上周的 12 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 机构行为周度跟踪 证券研究报告 长假前后，机构谨慎为主 债市活力指数继续下降 截至 10 月 10 日，债市活力指数较 9 月 26 日下降 8pcts 至 0%，5D-MA 下降 18pcts 至 5%。 其中，无债市活力升温指标，降温指标包括：十年期国开债隐含税率（反 向）（滚动两年分位数持平在 0%）、10Y 国开债活跃券成交额/9-10Y 国开债 余额（滚动两年分位数由 19%降至 16%）、银行间债市杠杆率较过去 4 年同 期均值的超额水平（滚动两年分位数由 12%降至 6%）、中长期纯债基久期中 位数（滚动两年分位数由 89.0%降至 87.6%）、30Y 国债换手率（滚动两年分 位数由 24%降至 3%）。 机构买卖行为跟踪：节前基金谨慎加仓；节后交投清淡 1）买卖力度与券种选择：基金主要净买入中短债，保险转为卖出 整体来看，9/29-10/10 期间，现券市场净买入力度排序为：货基>基金> 其他产品类>保险>理财>外资银行>大行>其他，净卖出力度排序为股份 行>城商行>农村金融>券商。 券种选择上，目前各类机构主力的券种为：1）大行主力 7-10Y 利率债；2） 农 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [5] Core Insights - The construction index increased by 4.6% recently, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.94 percentage points, indicating a positive market trend for the construction sector [1][4] - There is an expectation for stable growth in infrastructure in Q4, with a focus on investment opportunities in the western regions of China, particularly in Xinjiang and Tibet [2][23] - The government has issued guidelines to combat price competition issues, emphasizing the importance of anti-involution investment themes [3][25] Summary by Sections 1. Q4 Infrastructure Stimulus Expectations - Economic data from July to August 2025 showed a slowdown, prompting expectations for increased infrastructure policies in Q4 [13] - Special bonds and long-term treasury bonds are being issued at a rapid pace, with special bonds totaling 3.68 trillion yuan, accounting for 83.6% of the annual quota [14][15] - The western region's fixed asset investment grew by 6.6%, surpassing the national average, with significant growth in provinces like Tibet and Xinjiang [23][24] 2. Governance of Price Competition - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have issued guidelines to address price competition issues, promoting fair market practices [3][25] - The report suggests focusing on four investment themes related to anti-involution, including price elasticity and downstream profit improvement [26][27] 3. Nuclear Power Sector Insights - Key breakthroughs in nuclear fusion technology are expected to enhance the attractiveness of the nuclear power sector, with significant investments planned [29] - The report identifies leading companies in the nuclear power construction sector, such as China Nuclear Engineering and China Energy Engineering [30][31] 4. Market Review - The construction index's recent performance indicates a strong market, with notable stock gains from companies like China Nuclear Engineering and Xinjiang Communications Construction [33][34] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of infrastructure investment in high-growth regions and suggests focusing on companies involved in major projects in the western regions [38][39] - It also highlights the potential of the nuclear power sector and emerging business directions, recommending companies like China Nuclear Engineering and Libat [40]

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 银行 证券研究报告 农业银行的故事：资负篇 本篇报告是我们推出的第二篇农业银行深度报告，将从信贷、存款、金市、流动性与司库策略五大 维度作为切入点，为市场全面"解密"农业银行资产负债配置行为及其影响。 一、近年来农业银行资产负债配置行为的主要特点 第一，资产负债"流动性、盈利性、安全性"三性平衡中，流动性明显"让位于"盈利性，其对规 模增长诉求，明显高于其他国有大行。 第二，资产配置"强度大、质量高、久期长"。一方面，凭借县域金融优势，农业银行信贷强度有望 在国有大行中持续保持领先。另一方面，债券投资以一级市场承接和配置需求为主，AC 账户政府债 持仓比例高、久期长，导致银行账簿利率风险指标压力较大。 第三，存款管理建设仍待提升，受监管政策影响较大。主要表现为：（1）对公存款涉及手工补息体 量过大，近年来流失较多；（2）零售存款受益于县域金融业务强势，增长情况较好；（3）对同业存 款依赖度极高，活期定价水平季节性引领国有大行。 第四、资负缺口压力最大时点集中在 1-2 月份、10-11 月份。但近几年从趋势变化上看，这两个时 间段农业银行资负缺口压力有一定分化，即 1-2 月缺口压 ...