Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The US employment situation is weak, leading to a continued increase in expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. The market anticipates three 25bp rate cuts in September, October, and December [2]. - Overseas stock markets generally rose this week. US stocks hit record highs, and European stocks were boosted by the earnings season. The US dollar fell slightly, and US bond yields fluctuated. Oil prices dropped, while gold prices increased [1]. - Trump's policies mainly focus on tariffs and international negotiations. He plans to impose high - tariffs on semiconductors and chips and additional tariffs on India. There is progress in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, with a scheduled meeting between Trump and Putin [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Market One - Week Review - **Equity Markets**: US and European stocks rose. The NASDAQ led the gains among US stocks, and Apple soared over 13% after announcing a $100 billion investment in the US. The S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ rose 2.43%, 1.35%, and 3.87% respectively. European indices such as the German DAX and London FTSE 100 also increased [10]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar fluctuated and closed slightly lower. The euro and the Chinese yuan appreciated against the US dollar, while the Japanese yen depreciated [10]. - **Interest Rates**: US bond yields showed an upward trend overall. The 2Y and 10Y US bonds rose 7bp and 4bp respectively [11]. - **Commodities**: Oil prices declined due to US - Russia negotiations, and gold prices first rose on false tariff news and then fell after clarification. COMEX gold rose 1.29%, COMEX copper rose 1.26%, and WTI crude oil fell 5.81% [11]. 2. Overseas Policies and Key News 2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - Fed rate - cut expectations increased. Fed officials made dovish statements, and Trump appointed a "dovish" member to the Fed. As of August 9, the market's probability of a 25bp rate cut in September was 88.9%, up from 80.3% a week ago [24]. - The Bank of England and the Central Bank of Mexico cut rates by 25bp this week [26]. 2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - **Tariffs**: Trump plans to impose about 100% tariffs on semiconductors and chips, and additional 25% tariffs on India. Apple is exempt from these tariffs [27]. - **Russia - Ukraine Conflict**: Trump will meet with Putin on August 15 in Alaska [27]. - **Fed Personnel**: Trump selected Stephen Milan as a Fed governor, and the candidate list for the next Fed chair was expanded [27]. - **Net Satisfaction**: Trump's net satisfaction rate decreased to - 5.5% as of August 8 [29]. 3. Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.1 Overall Economic Sentiment - The probability of a US economic recession in 2025 on the Polymarket website dropped to 12% from 16% a week ago. Bloomberg expects the US and euro - zone real GDP growth rates in 2025 to be 1.5% and 1.0% respectively, unchanged from a week ago [4][33]. - The US economic activity index rose, while Germany's declined [38]. 3.2 Employment - The number of initial and continued unemployment claims increased, indicating a weak employment situation [42]. 3.3 Demand - Retail sales in the US rebounded, airport security checks were better than last year, and the real - estate market activity picked up slightly [47]. 3.4 Production - The US production sector remained highly prosperous, with steel production and refinery utilization rates higher than last year [53]. 3.5 Shipping - Shipping rates generally declined. The Drewry World Container Index and Chinese port export container indices decreased [6][56]. 3.6 Prices - US retail gasoline prices were stable, and inflation expectations rose slightly. The 1 - year inflation swap was 3.37%, up 0.05 percentage points from a week ago [6]. 3.7 Financial Conditions - Financial conditions tightened marginally, with credit spreads widening and the OFR US financial stress index rising [6]. 4. Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders - Key US inflation data (CPI, PPI, and import price index) and July retail sales growth will be released. Attention should also be paid to the specific details of semiconductor and chip tariffs [6].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that 2025 marks the 70th anniversary of the Xinjiang Autonomous Region, and under the support of policies and demand, regional infrastructure is expected to remain resilient. Key recommendations include China Railway and China Railway Construction in infrastructure, and companies like Sanwei Chemical and China Chemical in the coal chemical sector [1][15]. Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment in Xinjiang - Significant traffic infrastructure projects are accelerating, with the establishment of the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway Company and plans for the new railway to commence construction in November 2025. Fixed asset investment in Xinjiang grew by 13% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, surpassing the national average of 10.2% [2][20]. - The Xinjiang government is focusing on enhancing investment efficiency and developing ten industrial clusters, including hydrogen energy and intelligent computing, indicating potential policy support for infrastructure development [3][25]. Coal Chemical Investment - The report estimates that planned coal chemical projects in China total 1,032.9 billion yuan, with Xinjiang accounting for 491.64 billion yuan. The average annual investment from 2025 to 2029 is projected to be 206.58 billion yuan, a 220.6% increase compared to the 2021-2023 average [4][27]. - Several major coal chemical projects are underway in Xinjiang, with significant investments expected to continue, highlighting the region's advantageous resource endowment [29][30]. Market Performance - The construction index rose by 1.83% in the week of August 4-8, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.11%. Notable stock performances included Shanghai Port and Xinjiang Communications Construction [6][34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of infrastructure investment in achieving economic growth targets, with a focus on water conservancy, railways, and aviation projects, particularly in high-growth regions like Sichuan and Zhejiang [40].

Group 1: Davis Double-Click Strategy - The Davis Double-Click strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, selling them once growth is realized and PE increases, thus achieving a "double-click" effect on earnings per share (EPS) and PE [7][10]. - The strategy achieved an annualized return of 26.45% during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017, outperforming the benchmark by 21.08% [9]. - Year-to-date, the strategy has generated an absolute return of 33.83%, exceeding the CSI 500 index by 23.39% [10]. Group 2: Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy - The Net Profit Discontinuity strategy focuses on selecting stocks based on fundamental and technical resonance, where "net profit" refers to earnings surprises and "discontinuity" indicates a significant upward price gap on the first trading day after earnings announcements [12][15]. - Since 2010, this strategy has achieved an annualized return of 29.96%, with an annualized excess return over the benchmark of 27.68% [15]. - Year-to-date, the strategy has delivered an absolute return of 37.50%, outperforming the benchmark index by 27.06% [15]. Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles, utilizing PBROE and PEG factors to identify undervalued stocks with strong profitability and growth potential [16]. - The portfolio has shown stable excess returns in historical backtesting, with a year-to-date excess return of 19.41% relative to the CSI 300 index [16]. - The portfolio's performance this week yielded an excess return of 1.77% [16].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The pig sector is experiencing a halt in the growth of breeding sows, indicating a significant expectation gap in the market. The average price of pigs is stable at 14.34 CNY/kg, while the price of piglets has reached a new low this year. The supply pressure continues to increase, and the seasonal demand is weak, suggesting a potential seasonal decline in pig prices [1][2][11] - The dairy sector is nearing the end of its capacity reduction phase, with expectations for a rebound in raw milk prices. The beef cycle may have started, with companies that can withstand the current downturn showing strong profit potential [3][13][14] - The pet industry is witnessing a rise in domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports, indicating robust growth in the pet economy. Key recommendations include companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [15][16] - The poultry sector is focusing on the breeding gap for white and egg-laying chickens, with expectations for price improvements driven by demand. The yellow chicken market is also showing signs of recovery due to supply constraints and improving demand [4][17][19] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - The average price of pigs is stable at 14.34 CNY/kg, with self-breeding profits around 130 CNY per head. The price of piglets has hit a new low, and the average weight of pigs at market is high, indicating supply pressure [1][11] - The breeding sow numbers have decreased, with some institutions reporting a halt in growth. The market is expected to see capacity reduction due to policy guidance and weak demand [2][12] Dairy and Beef Sector - The raw milk price is expected to rebound as the dairy industry approaches the end of its capacity reduction phase. The beef cycle may have started, with companies that can adapt showing strong profit potential [3][14] Pet Sector - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands growing rapidly. Pet food exports are also on the rise, with significant sales growth reported [15][16] Poultry Sector - The white chicken and egg-laying chicken markets are focusing on breeding gaps, with expectations for price increases driven by demand. The yellow chicken market is showing signs of recovery due to supply constraints [4][17][19] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving food security through self-sufficiency and enhancing breeding strategies. The government is promoting agricultural technology innovation to support this goal [5][21][22] Feed and Animal Health Sector - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance, such as Haida Group. The animal health sector is focusing on breaking through homogenized competition with innovative products [6][23][24]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [8] Core Views - The recent suspension of lithium mining by Ningde Times is expected to lead to a tightening supply of lithium carbonate, potentially resulting in a revaluation of its value [1] - Copper prices have stabilized due to improved macroeconomic sentiment, with a closing price of 78,940 CNY/ton [2] - Aluminum prices have shown slight upward movement, closing at 20,665 CNY/ton, supported by favorable policies and expectations of interest rate cuts [3] - Precious metals are experiencing increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold prices rising to an average of 777.05 CNY/gram, while silver prices have slightly decreased [4] - Antimony ingot prices have been adjusted downward due to weak downstream demand, with market prices for various grades ranging from 178,500 to 187,500 CNY/ton [5] - Rare earth prices have slightly declined, but the fundamentals are expected to improve in the coming quarters [6] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices have rebounded slightly, with domestic supply at a high output level, but demand remains weak [15][21] - Aluminum: Prices have fluctuated, with increased production and stable demand, but social inventory continues to rise [21][22] - Precious Metals: Gold prices have increased due to global economic uncertainty, while silver prices have shown mixed performance [27][28] Minor Metals - Lithium: Prices for lithium carbonate have remained stable amid market uncertainties, with industrial-grade prices around 67,000-69,000 CNY/ton [41] - Cobalt: Prices have shown slight increases, but the market remains cautious due to weak supply and demand dynamics [45][46] - Tin: Prices have rebounded slightly, with market conditions improving due to increased investor sentiment [54] Tungsten - Tungsten prices have increased across the board, with various products showing price adjustments due to supply constraints [60][61] Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices have seen slight declines, with market conditions remaining stagnant and cautious [67][68]

- The report defines the market environment using the distance between the long-term (120-day) and short-term (20-day) moving averages of the WIND All A index, which continues to expand, indicating an upward trend [2][9][10] - The industry allocation model recommends sectors such as innovative drugs in Hong Kong and securities for mid-term allocation, while the TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on military and computing power [2][3][10] - The current PE ratio of the WIND All A index is around the 70th percentile, indicating a moderate level, while the PB ratio is around the 30th percentile, indicating a relatively low level [3][10][15] Model and Factor Construction 1. **Model Name: Industry Allocation Model** - **Construction Idea**: Recommends sectors based on mid-term market trends - **Construction Process**: Utilizes historical data and market trends to identify sectors with potential for reversal and growth, such as innovative drugs and securities in the Hong Kong market - **Evaluation**: Effective in identifying sectors with potential for mid-term growth [2][3][10] 2. **Model Name: TWO BETA Model** - **Construction Idea**: Focuses on sectors with high beta values, indicating higher volatility and potential returns - **Construction Process**: Analyzes sectors with high beta values, recommending technology, military, and computing power sectors - **Evaluation**: Continues to recommend high-growth sectors, showing consistency in sector selection [2][3][10] Model Backtesting Results 1. **Industry Allocation Model** - **PE Ratio**: 70th percentile [3][10][15] - **PB Ratio**: 30th percentile [3][10][15] - **Moving Average Distance**: 6.92% [2][9][10] - **Profitability Effect**: 2.30% [2][9][10] 2. **TWO BETA Model** - **PE Ratio**: 70th percentile [3][10][15] - **PB Ratio**: 30th percentile [3][10][15] - **Moving Average Distance**: 6.92% [2][9][10] - **Profitability Effect**: 2.30% [2][9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the investment demand for convertible bonds from insurance and annuity remains. With the shrinking of traditional high - quality underlying bonds like banks, convertible bond funds may flow to low - price, high - grade medium - large - cap convertible bonds in sectors such as utilities, transportation, environmental protection, and construction. The valuation decline of medium - low - price and balanced convertible bonds is controllable, and the valuation of high - grade convertible bonds may rise. In the long - term, if the new issuance space of convertible bonds remains unopened, it may significantly affect the market positioning of convertible bond assets, especially if new medium - high - grade convertible bonds are continuously absent, which may impact the basic demand for convertible bond allocation of low - risk - preference investors such as annuities and disrupt the logic of "tight supply - demand supporting high convertible bond valuations" [22] - The current A - share market valuation is recovering. Large - scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade - in measures are expected to boost domestic demand, while export growth may decline. A weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and the capital market is expected to gradually start. For convertible bonds, considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure is not expected to be high. As the stock market recovers, the return of incremental convertible bond funds drives the valuation to a relatively high historical level, and attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. In terms of clauses, attention should be paid to the game space of downward revisions, be vigilant against the forced redemption risk, and appropriately focus on the short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds [42] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special and Outlook 3.1.1. Supply - Demand Structure and Convertible Bond Valuation - Since the fourth quarter of 2023, the new issuance of convertible bonds has significantly declined, while the amount of conversion and maturity has increased. The scale of outstanding convertible bonds has entered a downward channel, with AAA - rated convertible bonds being the main force of contraction. The scale of convertible bonds in industries such as banks, public utilities, environmental protection, and transportation has decreased significantly. As of August 8, 2025, the convertible bond scale has decreased by nearly 70 billion yuan this year [10] - Starting from 2025, the convertible bond market will enter a maturity peak. In 2025, 134 convertible bonds will mature, with an initial issuance scale of 279.3 billion yuan. As of July 31, 2025, 20 of these 134 convertible bonds remain, with a total remaining scale of 48.178 billion yuan. From 2026 to 2028, the theoretical maturity scale of convertible bonds will exceed 200 billion yuan each year. In terms of ratings, from 2025 to 2027, the maturity scale of AAA - rated convertible bonds will be 39.1 billion yuan, 31.3 billion yuan, and 81.8 billion yuan respectively, remaining the main force of future contraction. The maturity scale of AA - and above - rated convertible bonds will be 47.4 billion yuan, 83.5 billion yuan, and 153.3 billion yuan respectively during the same period [16] - On the demand side, compared with the end of 2021, the investor structure of convertible bonds has changed. The influence of public funds and insurance institutions has increased, while the proportion of enterprise annuities has decreased. Public funds are the main direct investors in convertible bonds, with relatively few restrictions on convertible bond ratings. Pension and insurance institutions usually have clear convertible bond rating restrictions and focus on the safety margin and return certainty of convertible bond prices [21] 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the market showed an oscillating upward trend, with most of the three major indices rising, but there was differentiation and a slight correction in the second half of the week. The defense, machinery, and non - ferrous metal sectors performed well, while sectors such as commerce and retail, petroleum and petrochemicals, and social services declined [41] - For the stock market outlook, the current A - share market valuation is recovering. Large - scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade - in measures are expected to boost domestic demand, while export growth may decline. A weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and the capital market is expected to gradually start. For convertible bonds, considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure is not expected to be high. As the stock market recovers, the return of incremental convertible bond funds drives the valuation to a relatively high historical level, and attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. In terms of clauses, attention should be paid to the game space of downward revisions, be vigilant against the forced redemption risk, and appropriately focus on the short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds. Industries to focus on include hot topics, domestic demand - driven sectors, central state - owned enterprises represented by "China -字头", the "Belt and Road" theme, high - dividend sectors, and the military industry [42][43] 3.2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 3.2.1. Equity Market Rises, with Military, Metal, and Machinery Leading - This week, the main equity market indices rose. The Wind All - A Index rose 1.94%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.25%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.49%. The market style was more inclined to small - cap value. Among the small - cap indices, the CSI 1000 Index rose 2.51% and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.65% [46] - Among the 27 Shenwan industries, 27 rose and 4 fell. The defense, non - ferrous metal, and machinery industries led the market with increases of 5.93%, 5.78%, and 5.37% respectively, while the pharmaceutical, computer, and commerce and retail industries were among the top decliners [49] 3.2.2. Convertible Bond Market Soars, and the Median of the 100 - Yuan Premium Rate Increases - This week, the convertible bond market rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.31%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 2.25%, the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 2.42%, the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 2.73%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Weighted Index rose 2.23% [51] - The average daily trading volume of convertible bonds increased this week. The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 84.475 billion yuan, an increase of 7.259 billion yuan compared with last week. The total trading volume this week was 422.376 billion yuan [51] - At the industry level of convertible bonds, 29 industries rose and 0 fell. The machinery, defense, and beauty care industries led the market with increases of 4.51%, 4.40%, and 4.04% respectively. At the corresponding underlying stock level, 26 industries rose and 3 fell. The household appliance, bank, and machinery industries led the market with increases of 6.75%, 4.97%, and 4.70% respectively, while the building material, computer, and petroleum and petrochemical industries led the decline [56] - Most individual convertible bonds rose this week (428 out of 459). Excluding the closing data of newly - listed convertible bonds this week, the top five convertible bonds in terms of weekly increase were Jiaojian Convertible Bond (23.15%), Julong Convertible Bond (21.65%), Gaoce Convertible Bond (16.82%), Dongjie Convertible Bond (16.32%), and Borui Convertible Bond (14.97%); the top five convertible bonds in terms of weekly decline were Qizheng Convertible Bond (- 22.67%), Haopeng Convertible Bond (- 11.77%), Saili Convertible Bond (- 10.79%), Yingji Convertible Bond (- 7.58%), and Tianlu Convertible Bond (- 6.95%); the top five convertible bonds in terms of weekly trading volume were Dongjie Convertible Bond (19.443 billion yuan), Jinxian Convertible Bond (17.852 billion yuan), Tianlu Convertible Bond (16.819 billion yuan), Julong Convertible Bond (15.168 billion yuan), and Qizheng Convertible Bond (14.694 billion yuan) [58] - The number of absolute low - price convertible bonds decreased, and the median price of convertible bonds rose significantly. As of Friday, the median price of the entire market's convertible bonds closed at 130.41 yuan, an increase of 2.78 yuan compared with last weekend. The weighted conversion value of the entire market increased, and the premium rate rose. The median implied volatility of the entire market increased, and the pure - bond premium rate of debt - biased convertible bonds increased [62][66] 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuations of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds slightly declined, with the decline in equity - biased convertible bonds being higher. The valuation of convertible bonds with a conversion value of 110 - 120 yuan declined, while the valuations of other convertible bonds increased, especially those with a conversion value of 0 - 80 yuan and 100 - 110 yuan. The valuations of most convertible bonds of each rating increased, except for AAA and A and below. The valuations of small - cap and large - cap convertible bonds decreased, while those of medium - small - cap and medium - cap convertible bonds increased [75] - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have both rebounded from the bottom. As of Friday, the conversion premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds is above the 35th percentile since 2017, and that of balanced convertible bonds is below the 50th percentile since 2017 [75] 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings rose. AAA convertible bonds rose 1.88%, AA + convertible bonds rose 2.11%, AA convertible bonds rose 2.16%, AA - convertible bonds rose 2.69%, A + convertible bonds rose 3.17%, and A and below convertible bonds rose 2.37%. Since 2023, AAA convertible bonds have recorded a 20.01% return; AA + convertible bonds, 9.93%; AA convertible bonds, 14.85%; AA - convertible bonds, 22.79%; A + convertible bonds, 26.17%; and A and below convertible bonds, 30.78%. Historically, high - rating AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while low - rating convertible bonds have shown weaker anti - decline properties and greater rebound strength [89] - This week, convertible bonds of all scales rose. Small - cap convertible bonds rose 3.48%, medium - small - cap convertible bonds rose 2.26%, medium - cap convertible bonds rose 2.65%, and large - cap convertible bonds rose 1.72%. Since 2023, small - cap convertible bonds have recorded a 27.20% return; medium - small - cap convertible bonds, 23.63%; medium - cap convertible bonds, 19.43%; and large - cap convertible bonds, 16.63% [89] 3.3. Tracking of Convertible Bond Supply and Clauses 3.3.1. This Week's Primary - Market Issuance Plans - This week, there were no newly - listed convertible bonds, and there was 1 convertible bond issued but not yet listed - Weidao Convertible Bond with a scale of 1.17 billion yuan. The number of primary - market approvals this week was 7. Among them, 2 convertible bonds, Huafa Co., Ltd. (private placement convertible bonds, scale 4.8 billion yuan) and Jindawei (1.292 billion yuan), obtained the approval of the China Securities Regulatory Commission; 2 convertible bonds, Tianzhun Technology (0.872 billion yuan) and Chunfeng Power (2.5 billion yuan), were accepted by the stock exchange [94] - From the beginning of 2023 to August 8, 2025, the total number of planned convertible bonds was 89, with a total scale of 137.717 billion yuan. Among them, 15 convertible bonds passed the board of directors' proposal, with a total scale of 16.218 billion yuan; 36 convertible bonds passed the shareholders' meeting, with a total scale of 65.707 billion yuan; 28 convertible bonds were accepted by the stock exchange, with a total scale of 38.842 billion yuan; 4 convertible bonds passed the listing committee, with a total scale of 8.979 billion yuan; and 6 convertible bonds obtained the approval of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, with a total scale of 7.971 billion yuan [95] 3.3.2. Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses - As of August 9, 2025, 10 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger a downward revision this week; 7 convertible bonds announced that they would not be downward - revised, among which Heda Convertible Bond, Shengtai Convertible Bond, and Yirui Convertible Bond announced that they would not be downward - revised within 6 months; Ou 22 Convertible Bond proposed a downward revision, and Zhongzhuangzhuan 2 announced the result of the downward revision, which was revised to the lowest price [98] - This week, 9 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemption; 3 convertible bonds announced that they would not be redeemed; and 6 convertible bonds, including Longhua Convertible Bond, Xince Convertible Bond, Haopeng Convertible Bond, Dongcai Convertible Bond, Youzu Convertible Bond, and Baidian Convertible Bond, announced early redemption [101] - As of the end of this week, there were 6 convertible bonds still in the put - option declaration period and 15 convertible bonds still in the company's capital - reduction settlement declaration period [103]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report After a period of volatile market conditions, interest rates declined slightly in a narrow range this week, and institutional behavior stabilized overall, lacking a clear willingness to go long or short. Funds showed a more stable willingness to net - buy credit bonds than interest - rate bonds. The issuance of the first batch of tax - increased local bonds was smooth, and subsequent observation is needed to see if institutional bullish sentiment will increase [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Sentiment: Decline in Bond Market Vitality Index - As of August 8, the bond market vitality index decreased by 35 pcts to 14% compared to August 1, and the 5D - MA decreased by 19 pcts to 26%. Indicators of bond market vitality cooling include the decline in the trading volume of 10Y CDB active bonds/9 - 10Y CDB bond balance, the decrease in the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio, the change in the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, the decline in the implied tax rate of 10Y CDB bonds, and the decrease in the turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds [1][11][13]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior: Bond Market Stabilized, Institutions Remained on the Sidelines 3.2.1 Buying and Selling Strength and Bond Selection: Light Trading of Interest - Rate Bonds, Continuous Net Buying of Credit Bonds by Funds - In the current bond market, the order of net - buying strength in the cash bond market is: funds > other product types > wealth management > insurance > overseas institutions and others; the order of net - selling strength is: joint - stock banks > city commercial banks > rural commercial banks > securities firms. For ultra - long bonds (bonds with a maturity of over 15 years), the order of net - buying strength is: funds > insurance > rural commercial banks > overseas institutions and others; the order of net - selling strength is: large - scale banks > joint - stock banks > other product types > city commercial banks > securities firms [23]. - Different institutions have different main bond types. For example, large - scale banks focus on interest - rate bonds within 1Y, 1 - 3Y, and 5 - 7Y; funds focus on certificates of deposit, credit bonds within 1Y, and 1 - 3Y credit bonds [2][28]. 3.2.2 Trading Portfolio: Slight Increase in Durations of Credit Bond Funds and Interest - Rate Bond Funds, Smaller Duration Adjustments for High - Performing Bond Funds - As of August 8, the mean and median durations of the full - sample medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased by 0.04 years and 0.03 years respectively compared to August 1, reaching 4.56 years and 4.42 years, at the 98.7% quantile over the past two years. Among them, the median durations of pure interest - rate bond funds, interest - rate bond funds, and credit bond funds increased by 0.06 years, 0.03 years, and 0.03 years respectively. High - performing bond funds had smaller duration adjustments [41][44]. 3.2.3 Allocation Portfolio: Wealth Management Extended Duration in the Secondary Market, Rural Commercial Banks and Insurance Deployed Ultra - Long Bonds - **Primary Market**: This week, the primary - market subscription demand for treasury bonds decreased, while that for policy - financial bonds increased. The weighted average full - coverage multiples of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds changed accordingly [58]. - **Large - scale Banks**: As of August 8, the cumulative net - buying scale of 1 - 3Y treasury bonds this year was close to the same period last year. Although large - scale banks increased their net - buying of short - term treasury bonds since June, the cumulative net - buying scale was still lower than that in 2024 [66]. - **Rural Commercial Banks**: The cumulative net - buying scale of cash bonds by rural commercial banks this year was significantly weaker than in previous years, mainly due to the weak net - buying of short - term bonds within 1Y. However, the net - buying strength of 7 - 10Y and over - 10Y bonds was higher than in previous years [78]. - **Insurance**: The net - buying strength of cash bonds by insurance this year was significantly higher than in previous years, mainly due to the strong buying of ultra - long bonds over 10Y. As of August 8, the ratio of cumulative net - buying of cash bonds to cumulative premium income exceeded that at the end of August last year [86]. - **Wealth Management**: Since June, the cumulative net - buying scale of cash bonds by wealth management has continued to rise. This week, the duration of net - bought cash bonds in the secondary market decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level since February 23, 2024 [95][97]. 3.3 Asset Management Product Tracking: More than Half of Credit Bond Funds Had Positive Returns in the Past Month - **Wealth Management**: As of the week of August 3, the wealth management scale decreased by 900 million yuan in August, far lower than the estimated value based on the average monthly growth rate in the past three years. The fixed - income wealth management products decreased by 1.99 billion yuan. The wealth management break - even rate increased [98]. - **Bond Funds**: Since August, the scale of bond funds increased by 3.83 billion yuan, higher than that of equity funds. The newly established bond funds this week had a relatively large scale, ranking second - highest this year. This week, the net values of all types of bond funds continued to rise, with credit bond funds performing better [109].

Domestic Economic Indicators - In July, the core CPI showed zero growth year-on-year, while the PPI remained unchanged, leading to a narrowing of the PPI-CPI gap from -3.7% in June to -3.6% in July [7][8][10] - The July CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing the previous month's decline of -0.1%, while the PPI decreased by -0.2% month-on-month, improving slightly from -0.4% [7][10] - July exports (in USD) rose by 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while imports increased by 4.1%, also surpassing forecasts [17][21] Industry Configuration Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of the "赛点 2.0" third phase, indicating that the market is experiencing overheating and increased volatility, necessitating a cautious approach [46] - Investment themes are categorized into three main directions: 1) Technological advancements in AI, 2) Recovery in consumer stock valuations, and 3) Continued rise of undervalued dividends [46] - The report suggests that the performance of the consumer sector is closely tied to valuation, with a potential recovery cycle supported by low valuations, declining interest rates, and policy catalysts [46]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in the robotics industry, emphasizing China's leading position in global industrial robot production and patent applications [5] - The 2025 World Robot Conference showcased over 100 new technology products and attracted more than 200 domestic and international robot companies, indicating a strong focus on innovation and market expansion [4][5] - Key companies to watch include Aobo Zhongguang, a leader in 3D visual perception technology, and Keli Sensor, a leader in strain sensors, both of which are positioned to benefit from the growing demand in the robotics sector [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The robotics industry has seen a surge in patent applications, with China accounting for approximately two-thirds of global applications [5] - The density of industrial robots in manufacturing has reached the third highest globally, with rapid expansion in service robots and humanoid robots [5] Event Highlights - The 2025 World Robot Conference, held from August 8 to 12, featured over 1,500 exhibits, including more than 100 global product launches, showcasing advancements in robotics technology [4][5] - The event attracted significant international participation, with support from 28 global organizations, reflecting the increasing global interest in robotics [5] Company Focus - Aobo Zhongguang is noted for its comprehensive layout in six major 3D visual perception technologies, holding over 70% market share in domestic service robot visual sensors [6] - Keli Sensor has developed a series of products for humanoid and collaborative robots, leveraging advanced technologies in sensor design [6]